Seeking Alpha
  • Even In Sight Of The 52-Week High, Bonanza Creek Can Go Further
    BCEI Today, 6:55 PM Stephen Simpson, CFA Comment!

    Summary

    • Bonanza Creek Energy has significantly increased its net acreage position, while ongoing drilling results increase the potential value of that acreage.
    • The company's eastern acreage may be more prospective for the Codell formation than previously thought and newer 28-stage wells are showing very low decline rates.
    • Bonanza Creek has been a strong performer this year, more than tripling the EPX index, and still appears to have double-digit upside from here.
  • Quantum Fuel Systems: Review After Major Announcements And Quarterly Earnings
    QTWW Today, 6:43 PM Shaun Currie, CFA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • QTWW chose to walk away from its work with Agility Fuel Systems in order to have flexibility with new customers.
    • Growth prospects sounds good, but commentary on capacity has been weak for three consecutive quarters.
    • One potential area of upside is the company's work with GM on the Impala and light-truck CNG programs.
  • Ideal Power: Review After Quarterly Earnings And Recent Announcements
    IPWR Today, 6:20 PM Shaun Currie, CFA Comment!

    Summary

    • IPWR signed a multi-year purchase agreement with Sharp Electronics.
    • The company's hybrid converter has been launched.
    • There are several multi-billion dollar industries in which PPSA can be disruptive.
  • Westlake Chemical Partners' Quiet Period Expiration Could Offer A Short-Term Buying Opportunity
    WLKP Today, 6:17 PM Don Dion 1 Comment

    Summary

    • September 7 will conclude the 40-day quiet period on WLKP, formed by Westlake Chemical to acquire and operate ethylene production assets and facilities.
    • WLKP's share prices could enjoy a temporary rise as a result of the publishing of the likely positive underwriter reports.
    • Long-term, we like WLKP, for its potential to generate strong yields, given the steady flow of revenue from OpCo's fixed-margin sales to Westlake, along with strong management.
    • Short-term, WLKP could see at least a 2% increase in share price in the days surrounding the quiet period expiration, according to recent and historical research.
  • TJX Companies: Still A Bargain Or Is The Sale Over?
    Editors' Pick TJX Today, 4:44 PM Investing Doc 2 Comments

    Summary

    • TJX posted numbers that exceeded even its own expectations, and issued strong guidance for the remainder of the year.
    • The company continues to hit its growth and profitability goals, and remains on track to continue expansion throughout Europe and North America.
    • After taking this quarter's performance and guidance into consideration, I am increasing my FVE for the company to $66, and believe shares are still undervalued even after today's run-up.
  • Without Its Tax Dodge, What's Walgreen Worth?
    WAG Today, 4:33 PM YCharts 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Walgreen has both operating performance problems and financial constraints that could disappoint its holders going forward.
    • The company’s adjustments to financial guidance issued as part of the no-inversion announcement confirmed that the tax inversion enthusiasm was masking weakness in Walgreen’s business.
    • Further disappointment could force the board to re-evaluate management.
  • International Tower Hill Mines: A Successful Optimization Plan Can Send Shares Soaring
    THM Today, 4:13 PM Ben Kramer-Miller 2 Comments

    Summary

    • International Tower Hill Mines has fallen precipitously as the company's Livengood Project's feasibility study shows that the project needs much higher gold prices to become economical.
    • Investors have given up on the company, whose value rests in its embedded gold price optionality--it is worth much more at much higher gold prices, otherwise it is worthless.
    • Management has been pursuing other options, and given the information provided in the feasibility study it is possible to envision a smaller project focused on higher grade ore.
    • While this isn't definitive and while we can't quantify such a scenario the stock is cheap enough to warrant a speculative position based on this possibility.
  • EXCO Resources: Waiting For The Inflection Point
    XCO Today, 4:10 PM Richard Zeits 4 Comments

    Summary

    • EXCO posted a better-than-guided second quarter.
    • Still, the company’s production continued to decline while spending remained above cash flow.
    • The third quarter of this year is expected to be the low point in the company’s production trajectory.
    • Once the inflection point is reached, EXCO will need to demonstrate a strong recovery to justify the stock’s premium trading multiples.
    • In the meantime, the stock's risk/reward profile remains skewed to the downside.
  • ArcelorMittal Down, But Not Out
    MT Today, 4:08 PM Stephen Simpson, CFA 4 Comments

    Summary

    • ArcelorMittal management bit the bullet and lowered guidance for the year in the face of ongoing weakness in iron ore prices.
    • The global construction recovery remains frustratingly slow and opportunities to raise steel prices may be more limited in the second half, putting more stress on a volume recovery.
    • ArcelorMittal continues to look too cheap at about 5.5x forward EBITDA.
  • Update: Family Dollar Rejects Dollar General Acquisition
    FDO Today, 3:59 PM Renee Butler 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Family Dollar announced Thursday that it would reject Dollar General’s $9 billion takeover offer and reiterated support for Dollar Tree’s $8.5 billion offer.
    • I had predicted that there would be difficulties in a Dollar General bid, including Family Dollar CEO Levine and Trian Management’s support of Dollar Tree.
    • However, there are those on Family Dollar’s board who do not support the Dollar Tree bid and this only confirms my opinion that volatility is on the horizon.
  • Red Herring In Twitter's 'Facebook-Like' Ad Revenue Model
    TWTR Today, 3:52 PM Shock Exchange Comment!

    Summary

    • Twitter is revamping its ad revenue model to resemble Facebook's.
    • Under "pay for performance" model, advertisers will pay when users click a link, download an app or supply their email address to advertisers.
    • By changing its ad model now, Twitter is implying that its Q2 results were amplified by the World Cup and are not sustainable going forward.
    • I rate Twitter a sell.
  • Sears Holdings Might Be An Attractive Short Prospect
    SHLD Today, 3:51 PM Daniel Jones 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Shares of Sears Holdings fell over 7% on Aug. 21 after reporting revenue and earnings that missed analyst forecasts.
    • In all fairness, some of this decline was due to Lands' End and Sears Canada, but even after removing these from the picture, the retailer's situation doesn't look pretty.
    • Its increase in cash and cash equivalents would bode well if it weren't for the fact that all of this increase and more is one-time in nature.
    • Combine the above issues with the huge and expanding debt load on Sears' balance sheet and the company looks like it might make for an attractive short prospect.
  • Puma Biotechnology: Who Are They? What Happened? And, Where Are They Going?
    PBYI Today, 3:50 PM Sam Ross 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The ExteNET announcement was confusing to many, however, the stock price still sky rocketed.
    • My interpretation of the announcement gives a 3 year disease free survival of ~90% vs. ~85% with Herceptin alone.
    • At current levels, PBYI is a SELL.
  • MusclePharm Might Be A Monster
    MSLP Today, 3:34 PM Paulo Santos 18 Comments

    Summary

    • In previous comparisons, I compared MusclePharm to the growth stocks of today.
    • This time, I compare it to a directly comparable company, but ten years ago.
    • The result shows how MusclePharm is tracking the Monster Beverage story, and how if it manages to keep tracking that story its share price will explode upwards tremendously.
  • AeroVironment - The Biggest Winner Of Defense Cutbacks
    AVAV Today, 3:21 PM Sean Dalton 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The market for unmanned systems is poised to double in the next 10 years.
    • AeroVironment has and continues to provide quality UAV systems to the Department of Defense.
    • The company's financials don't show the whole story.
  • Zacks' Bull Of The Day: Tata Motors
    TTM Today, 3:15 PM Zacks Investment Research Comment!
  • China Mobile Games Vs. iDreamSky - Which One Is Undervalued?
    DSKY, CMGE Today, 3:13 PM ChinaGameExpert Comment!

    Summary

    • CMGE and DSKY are competitors in many aspects, so it's hard to pinpoint who's stronger.
    • When market value is concerned, DSKY’s P/E ratio is apparently higher than that of CMGE.
    • Assuming DSKY’s annual sales and income are equal to that of CMGE, DSKY’s current valuation is 53% higher than that of CMGE.
  • Netflix: Failure To Stream Cash Flow
    NFLX Today, 3:03 PM Apus Investments 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Netflix is highly over valued.
    • Free Cash Flow generation is lower than investors may expect and as a result EV/EBITDA or P/E multiples are not useful in valuing the company.
    • P/DCF analysis indicates that Netflix trades at almost 2x its intrinsic value, implying a potential downside of 50% from the current price.
  • A Brief Look At Evans Bancorp As The Company Hikes Its Semi-Annual Dividend By 9.7%
    EVBN Today, 2:59 PM Heather Ingrassia Comment!

    Summary

    • On Wednesday, August 20, EVBN announced it would be increasing its semi-annual dividend by 9.7%, from $0.31/share to $0.34/share.
    • EVBN recently announced Q2 EPS of $0.37/share which missed estimates by $0.11/share, and revenue of $10.74 million which was up 5.2% on a year-over-year basis.
    • Recent trend behavior could improve well into the second half of the year, now that EVBN has both hiked its dividend and demonstrated a solid second quarter performance.
  • Zacks' Bear Of The Day: Tupperware
    TUP Today, 2:53 PM Zacks Investment Research 1 Comment
  • Laredo Petroleum Seeks Investor Patience For Permian Perfection
    LPI Today, 2:53 PM Robert Polevoi 5 Comments

    Summary

    • LPI is focused entirely on the large scale and intensive development of the stacked shale formations of the Midland Basin of West Texas.
    • LPI’s acreage position is striking in its size and contiguity, which the company is seeking to exploit through multi-square mile “production corridors” with an eye to optimal development.
    • The company is negotiating a major turn into the full-scale simultaneous development of four overlapping oil-rich zones, with the reasonable promise of many years of substantial production growth.
  • Update: Endeavour Silver Purchases Exploration Land Adjacent To Its Guadalupe Y Calvo Property In Chihuahua, Mexico
    EXK Today, 2:47 PM Ben Kramer-Miller Comment!

    Summary

    • Endeavour Silver continues expanding with a small land purchase adjacent to its Guadelupe Y Calvo Property from exploration nano-cap Lincoln Mining.
    • The company will pay for the deal in stock--90,000 shares worth about $480,000.
    • The deal is small but it exemplifies the company's expansionary spirit, which backs up my August, 2013 bullish thesis.
    • I remain bullish on the shares and like them at $4.50 - $5/share.
  • AT&T Is Well-Positioned To Compete In The Sector
    T Today, 2:39 PM IAEResearch 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Sprint will now focus on competing without increasing the scale of operations as the merger has fallen through.
    • Customer satisfaction remains high for AT&T which is encouraging as it is an important metric for the telecom companies.
    • Expansion of high-margin products will result in increased margins for the company and GigaPower's expansion in Miami is a positive sign for AT&T shareholders.
    • Sprint will need to invest substantially in the expansion of wireless network in order to compete with the other major players.
  • Update: eBay - The PayPal Spin-Off Is Resurfacing
    EBAY Today, 2:32 PM AtonRa Partners 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Rumors surfacing about eBay’s ambition to spin off PayPal and eBay’s comment that the board will continue to assess all the alternatives suggest that something is going on.
    • EBay’s management might be contemplating a (partial) sale of the business due to rising competition risks, something we highlighted in a July article.
    • We remain Sellers: if eBay doesn’t move extremely fast and unload most of its shares, PayPal is likely to become soon a valuation burden for the group.
  • Why Apple's Partnership With IBM Could Save The iPad
    AAPL Today, 2:32 PM Bob Ciura 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple's iPad is still growing solidly in international markets.
    • However, sales of iPads are falling in developed markets, and a larger iPhone screen will only complicate this.
    • Fortunately, Apple's partnership with IBM can significantly increase Apple's penetration in the enterprise market.
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals: What Does The 'Animal Rule' Mean For Their Ebola Drug Development?
    Editors' Pick TKMR Today, 2:28 PM Christopher Wallace 13 Comments

    Summary

    • The animal rule was set up in 2001 in response to 9/11 and other terrorist attacks to allow the development of experimental drugs where using them in human trials would be unethical or unfeasible.
    • Once this pathway has been approved by the FDA, data on other animals (often primates) who are believed to react in a similar fashion to how humans react to a drug, are provided with drug in various doses to determine more about efficacy of the drug, appropriate dosages, etc.
    • Two apparently common mis-conceptions are that the Animal Rule will shorten and make less expensive the approval process.
  • SolarCity: This Strong Gainer Can Still Deliver More Upside
    SCTY Today, 1:52 PM Akshansh Gandhi 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Focusing on efficiency will benefit SolarCity in the long-run.
    • Reducing price of solar panels should boost SolarCity's margins.
    • Solar energy is expected to become cost competitive in 22 states in the U.S. and this should also benefit SolarCity.
    • The leasing market is expected to boom and this bodes well for SolarCity.
    • SolarCity is a good buy despite its rich valuations.
  • Paragon Offshore: A Spin-Off With Minimum 40% Upside Potential
    Editors' Pick PGN Today, 1:47 PM Street Smart Investor 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Paragon Offshore, a spin-off of Noble Corp, is currently under followed and undervalued.
    • The relatively challenging offshore rig market condition is temporary and the stock will bounce back when markets improve.
    • EV/EBITDA valuation points to a minimum upside of 40% in a time horizon of 12-18 months.
  • Nektar Therapeutics Has More To Give
    NKTR Today, 1:45 PM Stephen Simpson, CFA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors should know within a month whether the FDA will approve Movantik, Nektar's opioid-induced constipation drug partnered with AstraZeneca that has $1B+ potential.
    • Phase III results from the BEACON study of NKTR-102 should come in the first half of 2015, while Nektar continues to develop two other promising oncology and pain compounds.
    • The risk of clinical failure is always present with biotechs, but Nektar shares can support a $16 fair value today and possibly more as regulatory and clinical developments unlock value.
  • A Barrick Gold And Newmont Mining Merger, Part 2
    ABX, NEM Today, 1:33 PM SomaBull 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining recently broke off merger discussions.
    • Merging these two companies into one doesn't solve the negative shareholder return.
    • Barrick and Newmont need a different plan to unlock shareholder value.
    • Creating three companies by merging two, instead of merging two companies and creating one is a better plan.
    • Over $11 billion in shareholder value is unlocked.
  • Vodafone: Ready To Shine With 4G
    VOD Today, 1:31 PM Stone Fox Capital 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The 3G wireless hangover in Europe now provides opportunity.
    • Capital spending on 4G to benefit Vodafone.
    • Vodafone not cheap on standard metrics.
  • Update: Alamos Gold Receives Approval For The Agi Dagi Project
    AGI Today, 1:26 PM Hebba Investments Comment!

    Summary

    • Alamos Gold recently received approval for its Agi Dagi project which shows the Turkish government is still mining friendly.
    • This means that we believe there is a good chance the company's legal issues surrounding the more important Kirazli project will also be settled.
    • Investors looking to front-run the anticipated fourth quarter decision may want to acquire shares now because we believe the Turkish government will not unduly hold up the Kirazli project.
  • A Barrick Gold And Newmont Mining Merger, Part 1
    ABX, NEM Today, 1:20 PM SomaBull 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining recently broke off merger discussions.
    • Merging these two companies into one doesn't solve the negative shareholder return.
    • Barrick and Newmont need a different plan to unlock shareholder value.
    • Creating three companies by merging two, instead of merging two companies and creating one, is a better plan.
    • Almost $11 Billion of shareholder value would be created immediately.
  • Dr Pepper Shakes Up Soft Drink Industry
    DPS Today, 12:55 PM Andrew Sachais 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Dr Pepper has experienced tremendous growth over the past year.
    • The company offers a healthy dividend that could continue to grow with financial success.
    • Even with growth opportunities present, Dr Pepper is still valued less than larger peers in the industry.
  • General Electric's Capital Conundrum
    GE Today, 12:55 PM Peter Schwartz 11 Comments

    Summary

    • A significant slice of global financial services activity originates from within multinational industrial and manufacturing companies.
    • Nearly all industrial-manufacturing finance supports grid infrastructures provisioning basic services for entire populations – power, water, telecommunications, agriculture, health-care, transportation, education.
    • In less economically prosperous societies, the dynamics driving development may not require, and in fact may actively argue against, transactional relationships dependent on a thick layer of industrial-manufacturing finance.
    • General Electric needs GE Capital to soften up new markets in less developed regions of the world – specifically Asia, the Americas, Africa, and the Middle East.
    • To assist General Electric's efforts to grow markets in the global periphery, GE Capital must reimagine itself as a customer service center, not as a profit center.
  • Is There Hope Of A Turnaround At Angie's List?
    ANGI Today, 12:54 PM Akshansh Gandhi 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Angie's List missed the analysts' estimates for the sixth time in a row and there are many factors which indicate that it may happen again.
    • The negatives overshadow the positives.
    • Flawed business model and increasing expenses have ended the hopes of Angie's Lists' turnaround.
    • Increasing competition will hurt Angie's List.
    • Angie's List is a strong sell.
  • For Sprint, It Is Now A Long-Distance Race
    S Today, 12:49 PM Sourav Chatterjee 7 Comments

    Summary

    • After long deliberation, Sprint has decided not to pursue the T-Mobile acquisition anticipating a lengthy regulatory review.
    • Sprint lost about 3.5 million postpaid customers over the last 24 months. In the last six quarters, it lost 2.8 million postpaid customers.
    • RootMetrics wireless network quality ranking for the first half of 2014 shows Sprint has fallen behind T-Mobile and now is in the fourth place among the national wireless carriers.
    • Sprint recently announced new pricing plan for families, new pricing for other categories are expected to follow.
  • BHP Billiton: About That Split
    BHP Today, 12:45 PM Casey Hoerth 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Company is undergoing a spinoff that will result in a leaneer, more focused BHP Billiton.
    • Cost saving and efficiency measures continue to pay off.
    • BHP Billiton will continue to be a bet on a healthy global economy.
  • Take-Two Interactive's Growth Is Not Done Yet
    TTWO Today, 12:44 PM Amal Singh 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Take-Two Interactive's strong gaming pipeline has allowed the company to deliver growth even in sluggish times.
    • Take-Two Interactive is also making smart moves to tap the online gaming market in China.
    • Take-Two's valuation and future games indicate that the company's strong performance will continue.
  • Apple's iWatch Profit Potential
    AAPL Today, 12:34 PM Mark Hibben 77 Comments

    Summary

    • Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has predicted that Apple could sell 60 million iWatches in the first year of production.
    • This may be optimistic, but it's in line with growth estimates for the wearable market for 2015.
    • This sales volume for iWatch could add as much as $9 billion in gross profit for 2015.
  • DryShips Looks Set To Improve After An Impressive Second Quarter
    DRYS Today, 12:31 PM Mitu Anand 6 Comments

    Summary

    • DryShips is reporting solid growth in the revenue and is cutting its losses at the same time.
    • Improving spot fleet capacity days and new contracts should help DryShips improve its performance.
    • The end market prospects of the shipping market look bright, and should enable DryShips to deliver better results.
    • DryShips' bottom line is expected to improve at an impressive rate in the next five years as compared to the last five.
  • A.M. Castle Has Laid Everything On The Table
    CAS Today, 12:09 PM Alpha Gen Capital Comment!

    Summary

    • The quarter was likely the nadir in sentiment and poor news as management appears to have put everything on the table in order to move forward with a blank slate.
    • Shares are undervalued based on the buyout of Metals USA last year.
    • Activist shareholders are likely monitoring the results which will provide downside protection to the share price.
  • Hedge Funds Are Buying PCTEL - Should You?
    PCTI Today, 11:56 AM William Hubbard 1 Comment

    Summary

    • PCTEL's recent stock price correction is overdone.
    • The company's balance sheet is flush with cash and free of debt.
    • Mutual fund sales have driven the price down, and now hedge funds are acquiring shares.
  • Looking Beyond Nuance's Transition Pains
    NUAN Today, 11:56 AM Anup Singh 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Nuance Communications is struggling, as the company is going for a change of the business model.
    • However, Nuance should see more predictable revenue streams in the future as a result of its business model change.
    • Nuance's latest innovations are clicking well, allowing the company to pen new deals.
    • Nuance's bottom line is expected to grow at a faster rate in the coming five years than the last five.
  • Where To Put My Money? A Quantitative Analysis Of My Core Holdings
    BAX, BLK, BRK.B Today, 11:56 AM Investing Doc 19 Comments

    Summary

    • With bargains getting harder to find, sometimes the best stock to buy is the one you already own.
    • Herein, I review some of my current holdings to determine if any of them are worth applying new money to. Results vary.
    • Monsanto offers a good total return while trading at a moderate discount to fair value, though BlackRock, and Baxter look intriguing as well.
  • Valuation Versus The Technicals For American Eagle
    AEO Today, 11:52 AM Stock Traders Daily Comment!

    Summary

    • AEO looks horrible on a valuation basis.
    • However, the technicals show a breakout.
    • Which is more important to you as an investor?
  • SodaStream's Weakness Looks Like A Short-Term Phenomenon
    SODA Today, 11:50 AM Mitu Anand Comment!

    Summary

    • SodaStream has struggled this year as its business in the U.S. hasn't performed well, but the company is using a tried and tested formula to get it back on track.
    • SodaStream has entered into partnerships with several companies to improve long-term performance and reach across the globe.
    • SodaStream's valuation and growth projections are impressive, making the stock a good bet on the drop.
  • Amgen Has Yet To Reach Its Potential, Despite Strong Gains
    AMGN Today, 11:50 AM Wall Street Playbook 2 Comments

    Summary

    • By the end of 2015 these potential saving can send the stock to $150, or 15% higher.
    • Investors may not realize Amgen's value for a couple of more years.
    • Amgen one of Big Pharma's best stock's to own.
  • Amazon Is Coming After eBay And PayPal, Make No Mistake
    AMZN Today, 11:46 AM Integrator 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon has launched several payment initiatives in the last year, including Amazon Payments.
    • Amazon has significant assets it can bring to bear in the online payments space.
    • PayPal's off-net eBay volume could be under risk of displacement.
  • Update: Wal-Mart's New Initiatives To Boost U.S. Sales
    WMT Today, 11:25 AM BB Research 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Wal-Mart has been testing a new technology to advance front-end operations to improve the experience of shoppers in the US.
    • Furthermore, the retailer has rolled out a new price matching program called Savings Catcher.
    • Earlier we opined that Wal-Mart's small-format stores will be able to boost US sales, although we didn't anticipate that the company plans to roll out unique programs to boost US sales.
    • With its new initiatives the big box retailer will be able to boost US sales further, which confirms our opinion.