Seeking Alpha
  • Macro This Week = Uplift For Emerging Markets
    EWZ, TUR, RSX Today, 5:07 AM Emerging Money Comment!
  • The Good ETF, Part 2 (Sort Of)
    TVIX Today, 4:41 AM David Merkel Comment!
  • Citigroup Is The Best Bet For Long-Term Investors
    C Today, 3:56 AM Kirk YU 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Citigroup reported solid first quarter results, ending a 3-week slide and shaking off market perception that the bank is losing grounds to competitors.
    • The Fed’s capital plan rejection is a trumped-up charge that has little to do with the bank’s financial health.
    • Citigroup will continue to benefit from a reviving U.S. economy, and sooner or later investors should be able to look at the bank objectively.
  • Activists Vs. Darden: Look Beyond The Real Estate
    DRI Today, 3:47 AM John Gordon Comment!

    Summary

    • Think beyond Darden's real estate to determine if long term value is present.
    • Both the activists and Darden provided incomplete analysis.
    • Restaurant level EBITDA is a poor metric; free cash flow metric is better.
  • Why Johnson & Johnson's Patent Expiration Profile Is Fantastic
    JNJ Today, 3:28 AM Valuentum Comment!

    Summary

    • Very few firms have a more attractive investment profile than Johnson & Johnson.
    • Johnson & Johnson boasts a cash-flow-derived Valuentum Dividend Cushion score of 2.2, and we don’t see us removing it from the Dividend Growth portfolio anytime soon.
    • Let's also take a look at its patent expiration profile for a few of its large drugs.
  • How Tyson Looks Through The Eyes Of New Money
    TSN Today, 3:18 AM Valuentum Comment!

    Summary

    • Let's examine Tyson through the eyes of new money.
    • Tyson Foods posts a Valuentum Buying Index score of 7, reflecting our 'fairly valued' DCF assessment of the firm, its attractive relative valuation versus peers, and bullish technicals.
    • This score is good, but at any point in time, we prefer more timely ideas for consideration, ones held in the actively-managed portfolios.
  • Rite Aid's 4th Quarter Earnings Release - The Growth Story Starts
    RAD Today, 3:10 AM Alan Stacy 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Rite Aid beats estimates on revenues and earnings; moves out of the turnaround phase.
    • Management projecting accelerated revenue growth and increased profitability in fiscal 2015.
    • Recent acquisitions to fuel growth and transform company into a wellness provider.
  • EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - Fundamental Drivers: Coming Breakout, Likely Direction Per Fundamentals
    UUP, UDN, FXE Today, 2:57 AM Cliff Wachtel Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: As noted in Part 1, near term tight trading range with more upside potential if fundamentals provide the excuse. Longer term bearish wedge, fundamentals suggest more downside.
    • Fundamental Outlook: Likely Medium Term Trading Range And What’s Needed For A Breakout.
    • Bullish & Bearish Fundamentals For Short, Medium Term.
    • Key Economic Calendar Events, Earnings This Week.
    • Trader Positioning From Real Time Retail Trader Sample & Conclusions.
  • Google Cloud Is No Real Threat To Microsoft
    MSFT Today, 2:33 AM Kofi Bofah 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Cloud computing is the latest technological revolution.
    • The Google Cloud will not challenge Microsoft Office sales.
    • Microsoft can unlock shareholder value after abandoning hardware projects.
  • Caterpillar: Is This A Breakout Or Will The Stock Fall Back To $85?
    CAT Today, 2:18 AM Jeff Williams 2 Comments

    Summary

    • What is Caterpillar's current value?
    • How does management intend to use their excess cash?
    • What role does the net debt play in a potential breakout?
  • The Coming Week: The State Of The Bull Market And What Could Kill It
    DIA, SPY, QQQ Today, 2:08 AM Cliff Wachtel Comment!

    Summary

    • Technical Outlook: Long, medium, and short term.
    • Fundamental Drivers: What’s key, what changed, what hasn’t.
    • One Big Bearish Concern.
    • What To Watch In This Week’s Calendar, Earnings.
    • Conclusions, And What Would Change Them.
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism?
    Editors' pick SPY, QQQ, SH Today, 1:46 AM Jeff Miller 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Last week saw reduced volatility.
    • There is a possible seasonal inflection point - looking beyond weather effects.
    • Trading outlook is neutral.
    • Investors have opportunities in several sectors.
    • For economic insight, you might look to economists.
  • Emerging Markets: The Rally Is Over
    SPY, EEM, VWO Today, 1:06 AM Evariste Lefeuvre Comment!

    Summary

    • The recent rally in EM stocks and FX comes to an end.
    • External factors such as U.S. Treasury yields, U.S. dollar and global liquidity are not supportive enough.
    • I still recommend caution and discrimination based on local/domestic strength.
  • The Event That Will End The Bull Market
    SPY, SH, SSO Today, 12:58 AM Eric Parnell 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The Fed's Daily U.S. Treasury purchases as part of QE have been the primary driver of stock market gains in the post crisis period.
    • These daily U.S. Treasury purchases are being phased out and are set to end in October.
    • What would the market have looked like without these daily U.S. Treasury purchases as part of QE and what are its implications for today's bull market.
  • Buy The Recent Correction Of MBIA, A Turnaround In The Works
    MBI Today, 12:45 AM George Kesarios 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent S&P upgrade will permit the company to gradually return to the market and guarantee municipal debt one again.
    • With its stock once at $70 a share, if and when the company returns to the market, is will be totally up on its feet again.
    • The company has surprised analysts for several quartets until now, so the recent 20% decline is probably an opportunity.
  • Plug Power: A Keynesian Beauty Contest
    PLUG Today, 12:08 AM Atlanta Equity Professional 16 Comments

    Summary

    • PLUG is a different game than other stocks right now.
    • The game is more or less a Keynesian beauty contest.
    • It is not right now irrational for Plug longs to be playing this contest.
    • It will become very irrational in the future for Plug longs to play this contest.
  • General Electric: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet
    GE Today, 12:02 AM David Alton Clark 6 Comments

    Summary

    • General Electric is on the verge of a major paradigm shift.
    • The shift will provide the impetus for future growth spurring the stock higher.
    • These positives coupled with an uptick in US and Global growth is not priced in to the stock.
  • Tiptree Financial Is Poised To Join The Russell
    TIPT Yesterday, 11:50 PM Mark Gomes Comment!

    Summary

    • In May, Russell Investments will initiate the annual reshuffling of its Russell 2000 index. This annual event represents a juicy opportunity for investors who can identify the winners (and losers).
    • Our first 2014 pick, Old Line Bancshares (OLBK), has risen 14% while the Russell has fallen by 3.7% over the same timeframe.
    • Tiptree’s market cap leapt from $70M to $300M when it secured major private financing last year. This move appears sufficient to complete TIPT's set of requirements for Russell membership.
  • Aecom Technology: 6 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares During The Last 30 Days
    ACM Yesterday, 11:35 PM Markus Aarnio Comment!

    Summary

    • Six insiders sold Aecom Technology stock within one month.
    • The stock was not purchased by any insiders in the month of intensive selling.
    • Two of these six insiders decreased their holdings by more than 10%.
  • Facebook 1Q14 Preview: Engagement In Focus; MVNO The Next Catalyst?
    FB Yesterday, 11:28 PM Terracotta Capital 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Facebook will report 1Q14 on April 24th. The Street expects $0.24 EPS on $2.34b in revenue.
    • User engagement will be a focus. However, teen engagement may continue to be weak.
    • MVNO presents another growth driver in conjunction with internet.org, which will be a negative to the traditional telcos.
  • The Nokia X Goads Google To Work On A $100 Nexus
    NOK Yesterday, 11:19 PM Alcaraz Research 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Google respects the threat poses by a non-Google Android phonefrom Nokia.
    • Microsoft should continue the Nokia X platform to continue bugging its main nemesis, Google.
    • Future Nokia X versions could also go $100 by using dirt-chip MediaTek Quadcore SoC.
  • Union Pacific Earnings Are Chugging Along Higher
    UNP Yesterday, 11:09 PM Abba's Aces 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Revenue increased by 7%.
    • Earnings increased by a whopping 17%.
    • Agriculture and industrial segments of the economy are performing well while the auto sector may be in a decline.
  • Expect The Unexpected
    ANF, COH, CREE Yesterday, 11:05 PM George Acs 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Even the crowd gets it right sometimes.
    • Mini-corrections may be the new normal as the market trades at much higher levels.
    • Market catalysts aren't appearing on the near-term horizon, but the trend continues higher following dips.
  • Weekly Intelligence For MLP Investors
    BWP, CMLP, GSJK Yesterday, 7:56 PM MLPData Comment!

    Summary

    • EIA reports record new Gulf inventories as Cushing is bypassed by new pipelines, creating opportunity for Gulf refiners.
    • Kinder reports one-third of all natural gas consumed in the US is transported over its network, with estimates of a 50% increase in US demand by 2019.
    • 18 units hit a new 52 week high with no new lows; AMZ index 5.63% YTD total return.
  • This Market-Beating High-Dividend Stock Has 5 Straight Dividend Hikes And Goes Ex-Dividend Soon
    DKL Yesterday, 7:48 PM Double Dividend Stocks Comment!

    Summary

    • DKL has raised its last 5 quarterly distributions.
    • DKL has a stable business model which amply supports increased distributions.
    • DKL has right of first offer drop-down opportunities which should support future EBITDA growth.
  • Amazon 1Q14 Earnings Preview: Does Pricing Power Exist?
    AMZN Yesterday, 7:43 PM Terracotta Capital 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon reports 1Q14 earnings on April 24th. Revenue and unit metrics will be a focus.
    • Investors will get an initial read-through on the impact of price hike on Prime Membership. I expect negative impact due to lack of pricing power.
    • The Amazon phone could provide a positive catalyst and drive content sales. Look for clues from management on timing of introduction and launch.
  • Wal-Mart's New Money Transfer Service Is Not A Major Threat To Western Union
    WU, WMT Yesterday, 7:34 PM Dividend Herder 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Unlike Western Union, Wal-Mart's new money transfer offering is a national service, not a global one.
    • There are significant barriers to taking Wal-Mart's new service beyond the shores of the United States.
    • Wal-Mart's new service is just the latest in a series of perceived threats to Western Union that are overblown.
  • Pepsi Has Increased Dividends For 42 Years, But Is It A Buy Right Now?
    PEP Yesterday, 3:52 PM Abba's Aces 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock has hit overbought territory on a technical basis.
    • The stock is expensive on earnings growth potential.
    • The dividend yield is too low right now to make a purchase with the expensive valuations.
  • A Sneak Peek At Apple's Earnings
    AAPL Yesterday, 3:40 PM Quoth the Raven 28 Comments

    Summary

    • It's earnings season again for the largest and most fundamentally sound company in the world, Apple.
    • The focus this quarter is going to be less on the numbers, more on the coming product line and innovation.
    • Apple remains a stellar long-term vehicle for investment growth, sheltered by the security blanket of a massive cash position and a dividend.
  • A Sub-$100 Nexus Phone Can Kill The BlackBerry Z3
    BBRY Yesterday, 3:19 PM Alcaraz Research 77 Comments

    Summary

    • Rumor has it that MediaTek is helping Google come up with a sub-$100 Nexus Android phone. Nexus is a trusted brand known for high-quality phones and tablets.
    • A $150 or $200 BlackBerry Z3 entry-level BB OS 10 phone will find it hard to compete with a $100 Google phone.
    • John Chen should really sell the devices division if it continues to be unprofitable. Prem Watsa will not be happy if BBRY writes-off another billion dollars due to unsold phones.
  • Dividend Winners: High Yields And Low Volatility Part III: General Mills
    GIS Yesterday, 3:00 PM Glyndon Park Comment!

    Summary

    • GIS has a dividend yield of 3.1% and low volatility.
    • GIS trades at a modest premium to the S&P 500 and is inexpensive given low volatility and stable industry.
    • GIS has a conservative balance sheet and philosophy with very little risk to a dividend cut.
  • Dividend Winners: High Yields And Low Volatility Part II: Dominion Resources
    D Yesterday, 2:48 PM Glyndon Park 1 Comment

    Summary

    • D is among Citi Equity Research Bond Refugees.
    • D trades at a premium to the S&P 500 and similar utilities.
    • D dividend is stable but more attractive bond refugee stocks make it a hold.
  • Three Reasons Aspen Insurance Should Accept The Buyout From Endurance
    AHL Yesterday, 2:42 PM Brian Abbott 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Premium to book value is a good exit for current Aspen investors.
    • Few mergers or acquisitions are happening lately in the reinsurance space.
    • Low investment returns and higher price to book across the industry forecast lower returns going forward.
  • Ranges Persist, Though Sterling Is Exceptional
    FXE, FXY, FXB Yesterday, 9:50 AM Marc Chandler Comment!

    Summary

    • Key issue remains the same as last week: Is the dollar breaking down?
    • We continue to look for major currencies to remain range bound.
    • Dollar bloc weakness may continue.
  • SilverCrest Mines: A Wonderful Company At A Fair Price
    SVLC Yesterday, 9:30 AM Ben Kramer-Miller 6 Comments

    Summary

    • SilverCrest shares have corrected violently in the past couple months..
    • Nevertheless the company has done a lot to generate long term shareholder value since I last wrote about the company in December..
    • We now have a clearer picture of the future of Santa Elena and the financing of La Joya..
    • The shares are fairly valued, but worth buying considering management's track record of generating shareholder value.
  • Sharing Productivity Gains With Joe Sixpack
    Yesterday, 9:22 AM Steven Hansen 6 Comments

    Summary

    • What is productivity?
    • How should it be shared?
    • Are we accurately measuring productivity?
  • Nektar Fortifies Its Position In Advance Of The Rescheduled FDA Panel On OIC
    NKTR Yesterday, 9:22 AM Scrying Biotech 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Nektar's big event - the FDA panel on Opioid Induced Constipation, or OIC has been rescheduled for June 11th and 12th.
    • An interim catalyst involving the readout of NKTR-171 Phase 1 data should keep shares solidly between $10 and $14 until naloxegol's future has been better defined.
    • A small capital raise to hedge against the lesser possibility of FDA panel disappointment, and the strengthening of yet another partner's financial position, are positive developments since my last report.
  • Flamel Technologies: Great Buying Opportunity Before Earnings Inflection
    FLML Yesterday, 9:17 AM Ronny Hyman Comment!

    Summary

    • Bloxiverz gaining market share.
    • New PDUFA approval by FDA April 28, 2014.
    • Positive data on Narcolepsy drug.
  • Is There Hidden Value In Keeping Up With Jones Energy?
    JONE Yesterday, 9:08 AM Laura Starks Comment!

    Summary

    • Jones Energy's natural gas resources, location, and transportation access to major gas trunklines may not have received full recognition by the market.
    • The Anadarko basin is fully leased; the only entry is by expanding existing production, as Jones is, or through asset/company acquisition.
    • Only 25% of Jones Energy is public. The rest is held by private equity and management. It also has significant debt.
  • Does China Really Have 1,000 Tons Of Gold Locked Up In Shadow Financing Deals?
    GLD, GG, NEM Yesterday, 9:07 AM Hebba Investments 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent WGC report suggests that 1,000 tons of gold is being used as collateral in Chinese commodity financing deals.
    • Most of this information is based on conjecture and not fact since the Chinese gold market is quite opaque.
    • Serious questions remain as to why gold would make good collateral for financing deals in 2013 as it experienced significant volatility and high premiums.
    • Recent gold sell-off based on the WGC report may provide investors with an opportunity to buy gold.
  • American Public Education: Moving To Head Of The Class
    APEI Yesterday, 9:04 AM David Waldron Comment!

    Summary

    • APEI stock price is down ~20% YTD following disappointing year-end results and weak near term outlook.
    • But company exhibits best in class returns on equity and capital, cash flow margin, cost controls, and regulatory exposure.
    • And its stock appears compellingly cheap to industry and small cap market, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
  • Aspen Holdings Turns Down A Buyout Offer: Now What?
    AHL Yesterday, 8:58 AM Ashleigh Rogers Comment!

    Summary

    • Aspen Holdings recently got a buyout offer from Endurance Holdings.
    • What started as a friendly offer has now turned hostile with Aspen spurning Endurance.
    • A tie-up between the two firms is one possible option that would make sense for Aspen. Regardless, shareholders and all companies involved would benefit from consolidation in the reinsurance sector.
  • Thomson Reuters: Big Without 'Scale,' But The Times Are Changing
    Editors' pick TRI Yesterday, 8:55 AM Intangible Valuation Comment!

    Summary

    • Thomson Reuters is fully priced in context of recent results.
    • Yet it is in a turnaround -- the logic of which is very compelling.
    • In the context of a turnaround, Thomson Reuters is pretty attractive. It is worth watching. The corporation has been buying back stock at prices higher than today.
  • Citigroup: Buy Before It Gets Expensive
    C Yesterday, 8:39 AM Gemstone Equity Research 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Citigroup released its first quarter of 2014 results and reported better year-over-year performance.
    • In contrast to Citigroup, JPMorgan reported a net income of $5.3 billion and EPS of $1.28 for the first quarter of 2014.
    • I would suggest investing in Citigroup because of its attractive multiples and current price dips.
  • ACCO Brands: Value Trap In A Tight Spot
    Editors' pick ACCO Yesterday, 8:34 AM Felix Boisse 2 Comments

    Summary

    • ACCO Brands is the world's largest manufacturer and marketer of branded office and school supplies, including staplers, notepads, and binders.
    • On initial screen, ACCO Brands appears cheap with a P/E of 8.9x and P/B of 1.0x.
    • Value-destructive M&A, a weak position within the industry value chain, and declining demand for office supplies due to technological change makes ACCO Brands unattractive.
    • Computed intrinsic value of $4.00 implies the stock is overvalued by 50.2% vs. current price of $6.01.
    • No evidence of compelling catalysts or strategic value to improve profitability.
  • KKR & Co.: Looks Can Be Deceiving
    KKR Yesterday, 8:30 AM Ashleigh Rogers 14 Comments

    Summary

    • KKR has seen rapid revenue, assets under management and stock growth in the last year.
    • This growth is unlikely to be sustainable and today's earnings probably represent something near a cyclical peak.
    • Given possible peak earnings and the challenges in KKR maintaining its past excellence in returns with significantly more AUM, investors need to wait for a pullback before buying the stock.
  • Free Cash Flow And Deleveraging Is The Word At Realogy Holdings
    RLGY Yesterday, 8:26 AM Mike Arnold 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Realogy Holdings operates at meaningful scale in the residential brokerage business.
    • The business model includes high-margin, consistent franchise revenue streams from its agent network.
    • Free cash flow is being used to delever the balance sheet, allowing value to accrue to the equity.
  • JGWPT Holdings Will Test Investors' Stomachs But Should Ultimately Be A Good Investment
    JGW Yesterday, 8:23 AM Ashleigh Rogers 2 Comments

    Summary

    • JGW is facing several important headwinds which have hurt the stock price recently.
    • In the short term, these issues will hold back the stock, but over the long term it should be fine.
    • Given its size and the headwinds involved in the story, investors should be prepared for a lot of volatility accompanying the out-sized returns.
  • Shell: 7%+ Dividend Growth Is Possible
    RDS.A, RDS.B Yesterday, 7:43 AM Stock Gamer 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Management's updated strategy plan will improve free cash flow profile.
    • 7%+ annual dividend growth and cumulative $7.5B share buyback through 2016 is achievable.
    • Current share price only reflects 4-5% dividend growth potential.
    • Valuation gap to global oil majors should shrink if capital return can be improved.
  • Rock-Tenn Looks Like A Rock Solid Investment
    RKT Yesterday, 7:20 AM ValueBull Investor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Rock-Tenn has been trading sideways as of late, although the use of free cash flows and earnings growth is promising for its future.
    • The comparable ratios of Rock-Tenn with some key competitors show that the stock is 30-45% undervalued.
    • The long-term prospects of the company and the uptrend that the company has over the past 2-3 years make it poised to continue to move higher.