Seeking Alpha
  • Pepsi Has Increased Dividends For 42 Years, But Is It A Buy Right Now?
    PEP Today, 3:52 PM Abba's Aces 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The stock has hit overbought territory on a technical basis.
    • The stock is expensive on earnings growth potential.
    • The dividend yield is too low right now to make a purchase with the expensive valuations.
  • A Sneak Peek At Apple's Earnings
    AAPL Today, 3:40 PM Quoth the Raven 12 Comments

    Summary

    • It's earnings season again for the largest and most fundamentally sound company in the world, Apple.
    • The focus this quarter is going to be less on the numbers, more on the coming product line and innovation.
    • Apple remains a stellar long-term vehicle for investment growth, sheltered by the security blanket of a massive cash position and a dividend.
  • A Sub-$100 Nexus Phone Can Kill The BlackBerry Z3
    BBRY Today, 3:19 PM Alcaraz Research 50 Comments

    Summary

    • Rumor has it that MediaTek is helping Google come up with a sub-$100 Nexus Android phone. Nexus is a trusted brand known for high-quality phones and tablets.
    • A $150 or $200 BlackBerry Z3 entry-level BB OS 10 phone will find it hard to compete with a $100 Google phone.
    • John Chen should really sell the devices division if it continues to be unprofitable. Prem Watsa will not be happy if BBRY writes-off another billion dollars due to unsold phones.
  • Dividend Winners: High Yields And Low Volatility Part III: General Mills
    GIS Today, 3:00 PM Glyndon Park Comment!

    Summary

    • GIS has a dividend yield of 3.1% and low volatility.
    • GIS trades at a modest premium to the S&P 500 and is inexpensive given low volatility and stable industry.
    • GIS has a conservative balance sheet and philosophy with very little risk to a dividend cut.
  • Dividend Winners: High Yields And Low Volatility Part II: Dominion Resources
    D Today, 2:48 PM Glyndon Park Comment!

    Summary

    • D is among Citi Equity Research Bond Refugees.
    • D trades at a premium to the S&P 500 and similar utilities.
    • D dividend is stable but more attractive bond refugee stocks make it a hold.
  • Three Reasons Aspen Insurance Should Accept The Buyout From Endurance
    AHL Today, 2:42 PM Brian Abbott Comment!

    Summary

    • Premium to book value is a good exit for current Aspen investors.
    • Few mergers or acquisitions are happening lately in the reinsurance space.
    • Low investment returns and higher price to book across the industry forecast lower returns going forward.
  • Ranges Persist, Though Sterling Is Exceptional
    FXE, FXY, FXB Today, 9:50 AM Marc Chandler Comment!

    Summary

    • Key issue remains the same as last week: Is the dollar breaking down?
    • We continue to look for major currencies to remain range bound.
    • Dollar bloc weakness may continue.
  • SilverCrest Mines: A Wonderful Company At A Fair Price
    SVLC Today, 9:30 AM Ben Kramer-Miller 4 Comments

    Summary

    • SilverCrest shares have corrected violently in the past couple months..
    • Nevertheless the company has done a lot to generate long term shareholder value since I last wrote about the company in December..
    • We now have a clearer picture of the future of Santa Elena and the financing of La Joya..
    • The shares are fairly valued, but worth buying considering management's track record of generating shareholder value.
  • Sharing Productivity Gains With Joe Sixpack
    Today, 9:22 AM Steven Hansen 6 Comments

    Summary

    • What is productivity?
    • How should it be shared?
    • Are we accurately measuring productivity?
  • Nektar Fortifies Its Position In Advance Of The Rescheduled FDA Panel On OIC
    NKTR Today, 9:22 AM Scrying Biotech 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Nektar's big event - the FDA panel on Opioid Induced Constipation, or OIC has been rescheduled for June 11th and 12th.
    • An interim catalyst involving the readout of NKTR-171 Phase 1 data should keep shares solidly between $10 and $14 until naloxegol's future has been better defined.
    • A small capital raise to hedge against the lesser possibility of FDA panel disappointment, and the strengthening of yet another partner's financial position, are positive developments since my last report.
  • Flamel Technologies: Great Buying Opportunity Before Earnings Inflection
    FLML Today, 9:17 AM Ronny Hyman Comment!

    Summary

    • Bloxiverz gaining market share.
    • New PDUFA approval by FDA April 28, 2014.
    • Positive data on Narcolepsy drug.
  • Is There Hidden Value In Keeping Up With Jones Energy?
    JONE Today, 9:08 AM Laura Starks Comment!

    Summary

    • Jones Energy's natural gas resources, location, and transportation access to major gas trunklines may not have received full recognition by the market.
    • The Anadarko basin is fully leased; the only entry is by expanding existing production, as Jones is, or through asset/company acquisition.
    • Only 25% of Jones Energy is public. The rest is held by private equity and management. It also has significant debt.
  • Does China Really Have 1,000 Tons Of Gold Locked Up In Shadow Financing Deals?
    GLD, GG, NEM Today, 9:07 AM Hebba Investments 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent WGC report suggests that 1,000 tons of gold is being used as collateral in Chinese commodity financing deals.
    • Most of this information is based on conjecture and not fact since the Chinese gold market is quite opaque.
    • Serious questions remain as to why gold would make good collateral for financing deals in 2013 as it experienced significant volatility and high premiums.
    • Recent gold sell-off based on the WGC report may provide investors with an opportunity to buy gold.
  • American Public Education: Moving To Head Of The Class
    APEI Today, 9:04 AM David Waldron Comment!

    Summary

    • APEI stock price is down ~20% YTD following disappointing year-end results and weak near term outlook.
    • But company exhibits best in class returns on equity and capital, cash flow margin, cost controls, and regulatory exposure.
    • And its stock appears compellingly cheap to industry and small cap market, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
  • Aspen Holdings Turns Down A Buyout Offer: Now What?
    AHL Today, 8:58 AM Ashleigh Rogers Comment!

    Summary

    • Aspen Holdings recently got a buyout offer from Endurance Holdings.
    • What started as a friendly offer has now turned hostile with Aspen spurning Endurance.
    • A tie-up between the two firms is one possible option that would make sense for Aspen. Regardless, shareholders and all companies involved would benefit from consolidation in the reinsurance sector.
  • Thomson Reuters: Big Without 'Scale,' But The Times Are Changing
    Editors' pick TRI Today, 8:55 AM Intangible Valuation Comment!

    Summary

    • Thomson Reuters is fully priced in context of recent results.
    • Yet it is in a turnaround -- the logic of which is very compelling.
    • In the context of a turnaround, Thomson Reuters is pretty attractive. It is worth watching. The corporation has been buying back stock at prices higher than today.
  • Citigroup: Buy Before It Gets Expensive
    C Today, 8:39 AM Gemstone Equity Research 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Citigroup released its first quarter of 2014 results and reported better year-over-year performance.
    • In contrast to Citigroup, JPMorgan reported a net income of $5.3 billion and EPS of $1.28 for the first quarter of 2014.
    • I would suggest investing in Citigroup because of its attractive multiples and current price dips.
  • ACCO Brands: Value Trap In A Tight Spot
    Editors' pick ACCO Today, 8:34 AM Felix Boisse 1 Comment

    Summary

    • ACCO Brands is the world's largest manufacturer and marketer of branded office and school supplies, including staplers, notepads, and binders.
    • On initial screen, ACCO Brands appears cheap with a P/E of 8.9x and P/B of 1.0x.
    • Value-destructive M&A, a weak position within the industry value chain, and declining demand for office supplies due to technological change makes ACCO Brands unattractive.
    • Computed intrinsic value of $4.00 implies the stock is overvalued by 50.2% vs. current price of $6.01.
    • No evidence of compelling catalysts or strategic value to improve profitability.
  • KKR & Co.: Looks Can Be Deceiving
    KKR Today, 8:30 AM Ashleigh Rogers 14 Comments

    Summary

    • KKR has seen rapid revenue, assets under management and stock growth in the last year.
    • This growth is unlikely to be sustainable and today's earnings probably represent something near a cyclical peak.
    • Given possible peak earnings and the challenges in KKR maintaining its past excellence in returns with significantly more AUM, investors need to wait for a pullback before buying the stock.
  • Free Cash Flow And Deleveraging Is The Word At Realogy Holdings
    RLGY Today, 8:26 AM Mike Arnold 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Realogy Holdings operates at meaningful scale in the residential brokerage business.
    • The business model includes high-margin, consistent franchise revenue streams from its agent network.
    • Free cash flow is being used to delever the balance sheet, allowing value to accrue to the equity.
  • JGWPT Holdings Will Test Investors' Stomachs But Should Ultimately Be A Good Investment
    JGW Today, 8:23 AM Ashleigh Rogers Comment!

    Summary

    • JGW is facing several important headwinds which have hurt the stock price recently.
    • In the short term, these issues will hold back the stock, but over the long term it should be fine.
    • Given its size and the headwinds involved in the story, investors should be prepared for a lot of volatility accompanying the out-sized returns.
  • Shell: 7%+ Dividend Growth Is Possible
    RDS.A, RDS.B Today, 7:43 AM Stock Gamer 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Management's updated strategy plan will improve free cash flow profile.
    • 7%+ annual dividend growth and cumulative $7.5B share buyback through 2016 is achievable.
    • Current share price only reflects 4-5% dividend growth potential.
    • Valuation gap to global oil majors should shrink if capital return can be improved.
  • Rock-Tenn Looks Like A Rock Solid Investment
    RKT Today, 7:20 AM ValueBull Investor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Rock-Tenn has been trading sideways as of late, although the use of free cash flows and earnings growth is promising for its future.
    • The comparable ratios of Rock-Tenn with some key competitors show that the stock is 30-45% undervalued.
    • The long-term prospects of the company and the uptrend that the company has over the past 2-3 years make it poised to continue to move higher.
  • Review Of "Nature Of Investing" And "World We Made"
    Today, 6:30 AM Hazel Henderson Comment!

    Summary

    • Review of Katherine Collins' newly released "The Nature of Investing".
    • Review of Jonathon Porritt's "The World We Made".
    • Correcting current investing methods to methods based on nature for the benefit of future generations.
  • U.S. Stock-Market Valuations Are At Dangerous Bull-Slaying Levels
    SPY Today, 4:56 AM Adam Hamilton 37 Comments

    Summary

    • The US stock markets are dangerously overvalued today. Measured by the elite S&P 500 component stocks, trailing price-to-earnings ratios are well above the 21x historically expensive level.
    • Today's valuations of 23x to 26x are way up in extremely risky bull-slaying territory that has killed past bull markets.
    • Stock prices would need to fall by well over a third simply to return to historical fair value of 14x earnings.
  • FLY Your Way To Dividends And Profits
    FLY Today, 4:37 AM Henry Nyce 4 Comments

    Summary

    • FLY offers a dividend yield of 6.9% at its current price.
    • High inside ownership and low P/E indicate possible capital gains.
    • Stock is selling at $3.50 below book value.
    • Cautions: high leverage and dependence on the airline industry.
  • Anticipate And Prosper - ING Groep Will Be A Dividend Champ Again
    ING Today, 3:51 AM The Investment Doctor 13 Comments

    Summary

    • ING hasn't paid a dividend since 2008 after it has been bailed out.
    • However, the final tranche of state aid is expected to be repaid shortly, which opens the door for a dividend reinstatement.
    • Based on preliminary company guidance, I expect the dividend yield to be 5-6.5% down the road as the net profit will increase due to lower risk costs.
  • Netflix 1Q14 Earnings Preview: Positive On The Short Term; Concern About Long-Term Visibility
    NFLX Today, 3:35 AM Terracotta Capital Comment!

    Summary

    • Netflix reports 1Q14 results on Monday after market close. I am a buyer into the earnings, but any price appreciation presents a good profit taking opportunity.
    • Short-term focus will be on subs metrics and margins. International margin to be a drag.
    • Valuation looks stretched as both P/S and PEG are at the high-end of historical range.
  • CBS Outdoor - Successful IPO Of This CBS Subsidiary
    CBSO Today, 2:31 AM The Value Investor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Leader in billboard advertising.
    • Parent company CBS is squeezing out as much cash as possible.
    • Investors are attracted to a generous dividend, yet I have valuation concerns.
  • Surge Energy: 3 Different Insiders Have Purchased Shares This Month
    ZPTAF Today, 2:08 AM Markus Aarnio 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Three insiders have purchased Surge Energy stock within one month.
    • The stock was sold by no insiders in the month of intensive purchasing.
    • Two of these three insiders increased their holdings by more than 10%.
  • What Is Wrong With Solar Leases And PPAs And How Can The Industry Fix Them?
    FSLR, SPWR, SUNE Today, 2:03 AM Casual Analyst 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The problem with the solar industry today is that the lease/PPA instruments are being priced to fail.
    • A lease/PPA is destined to fail if the value of the instrument does not approximate the marketplace reality.
    • A disciplined actuarial approach is needed so that future financial instruments can be priced properly.
  • U.S. Financials: Investment Theme Update
    Today, 1:24 AM AdvisorShares Comment!

    Summary

    • Rising long-term rates are driving a steeper yield curve, which should be positive for U.S. regional bank net interest margins.
    • Most listed U.S. banks subject to the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive Capital and Analysis Review raised shareholder payouts after passing stress tests incorporating increases.
    • Morgan Stanley, having digested the Smith Barney brokerage acquisition, doubled its quarterly dividend to 10 cents per share, above the consensus 8 cents estimate.
  • Gold At An Inflection Point
    GLD, IAU, PHYS Today, 1:00 AM Avi Gilburt 44 Comments

    Summary

    • The diversity of expert opinions about gold is quite confusing.
    • Why do we have such a diversity of opinions?
    • Upcoming week's expectations.
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Fiscal 2014 Tough; Fiscal 2015 Looking Better
    AAPL Today, 12:45 AM Brian Gilmartin 40 Comments

    Summary

    • Forward estimates indicate AAPL is now a mid to high-single-digit grower.
    • Fiscal 2015 looking slightly better in terms of EPS growth.
    • The big question remains how the $176 per share in cash is going to be spent.
  • Strong Commercial Loan Growth At Major Regional Banks
    USB, PNC Today, 12:33 AM John M. Mason Comment!

    Summary

    • U.S. Bancorp and PNC Financial Services post strong commercial loan growth.
    • Business demand for loans for capital expenditures seems to be picking up.
    • Continuing earnings improvement and rising returns on equity.
  • Schweitzer-Mauduit: Oversold After Acquisition And Q3 Results But Still A Buy
    SWM Yesterday, 7:49 PM Bram de Haas 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Restructuring and impairment charges likely to decrease in 2015.
    • The company has strong cash flows and growth initiatives to counter attrition.
    • There is about $7 in excess cash per share on the balance sheet.
    • The market was too bearish on SWM after 3rd quarter 2013 results.
    • The market hated the DelStar acquisition and continued selling off.
  • NIC Inc.: E-Government At Its Best
    EGOV Yesterday, 6:13 PM Joseph P. Porter 2 Comments

    Summary

    • NIC is the largest e-Government service provider in the U.S., having served 30 states, local governments, the U.S. Department of Transportation and Federal Election Board.
    • NIC operates with two business units: one providing portal services, the other providing e-government software and service.
    • NIC enables state and local governments to establish internet presence at no cost, collecting revenues from user fees shared with the government entity.
    • Over the past ten years, NIC has averaged approximately 18% revenue growth YOY.
    • Over the course of 2014, 15 state contracts are scheduled to expire, although four do have renewal options.
  • Has First Cash Financial Seen The Turn?
    FCFS Yesterday, 4:12 PM Stephen Simpson, CFA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Revenue was a little better than expected in Q1, but margins were a little worse.
    • Multiple indicators suggest that the Mexican economy and retail environment are improving.
    • First Cash's large note offering may indicate a larger strategic deal is in sight.
  • Square 1 Financial And The Evolution Of Finance
    SQBK Yesterday, 4:04 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • SQBK is developing momentum in a superbly profitable and hard to enter market.
    • SQBK has found a way to have a near non existent cost of deposits and that's great news for investors.
    • SQBK's multi channel revenue streams and risk management make them a model for future financial services companies.
  • As Palo Alto Networks Disrupts The Market, More Gains Can Come
    PANW Yesterday, 2:14 PM Stephen Simpson, CFA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Palo Alto is looking to augment growing share in next-gen firewalls with capabilities in malware and endpoint solutions.
    • The advantages of Palo Alto's technology may be overstated, but have been sufficient to take noticeable share from Cisco and Check Point.
    • Expectations for the company are hardly low, but there is upside to the share price if the company can become a strong #2/#3 player in the market.
  • You Must Be In Denial To Bet Your Farm On SandRidge Energy At The Current Levels
    SD Yesterday, 12:38 PM Value Digger 67 Comments

    Summary

    • SandRidge has taken measures to improve its capital efficiency and grow its production over the coming months.
    • The Mississippian formation will primarily fuel this production growth.
    • The funding gap, the key metrics, the debt and the subpoena from the US Department of Justice do not help me be bullish on SandRidge.
  • The General Electric Evolution Continues
    GE Yesterday, 12:20 PM John M. Mason 10 Comments

    Summary

    • General Electric posts strong quarter for its industrial businesses.
    • GE announced in March it was spinning off the consumer finance business later this year.
    • Talk has surfaced about keeping the CEO tenure for the company well below 20 years.
  • Advanced Micro Devices Set To Grow
    AMD Yesterday, 12:07 PM IAEResearch 11 Comments

    Summary

    • The financial position of the company is good, which should support the turnaround efforts over the next few months.
    • The focus on high-growth areas will support future revenue growth for the company.
    • A change in the revenue mix with the focus on high-margin areas will result in improved margins over the next few quarters.
  • Bank Earnings: Goldman Sachs Vs. Morgan Stanley
    GS, MS Yesterday, 11:38 AM John M. Mason Comment!

    Summary

    • Goldman Sachs reports earnings down by 10 percent while Morgan Stanley posted a 49 percent gain.
    • Goldman Sachs is maintaining its business model because it has been relatively successful.
    • Morgan Stanley has set out on a new path putting more emphasis on wealth management and investment advisory.
  • Exploiting Discount Arbitrage Opportunities In CEFs
    DFP, FLC Yesterday, 11:10 AM Michael Fabian 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Using relative value to uncover arbitrage opportunities.
    • Closed-end fund discount opportunities.
    • Preferred stock performance during 2014.
  • Stabilizing PC Market And Potential In Mobile Make Intel A Strong Buy
    INTC Yesterday, 11:01 AM Aurium Investments 12 Comments

    Summary

    • PCs remain the cornerstone of Intel's profitability, and the market appears to be stabilizing.
    • Intel's investments in mobile, coupled with Microsoft's pricing changes on tablets and phones, should drive traction.
    • Improvements in mobile profitability will drive significant share price upside.
    • Data center and IoT will be the engines of revenue growth.
  • The 'New' Perion - What Does The Future Hold For It?
    PERI Yesterday, 10:54 AM Top Alpha 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Perion's revenue comes from cooperation with different search engines – mainly Google, Yahoo and Bing.
    • In the last couple of years, the company went on a spree of acquisitions, growing its revenue 16-fold from $29.5 million in 2010 to projected $465 million in 2014.
    • Perion plans to raise debt in order to finance additional acquisitions in the near future.
    • Perion's market went through major changes in the last year since Google started imposing new restrictions on the market. Google wants to create a more "user-friendly" environment for the end-user.
  • Lands' End: Spin-Off Situation With 60%-90% Upside
    Editors' pick LE Yesterday, 10:49 AM New Capital 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Lands' End's recent listing and subsequent price drop seem to indicate a classical spin-off special situation that should generate excess profits for investors.
    • The company's online/catalog business produces stable FCF yield of 13% on current market cap. Increase in debt load will not affect results materially.
    • Relative to peers, Lands' End appears to have a potential upside of 60%-90%.
    • Catalysts include reduction in after spin-off selling, potential reinstatement of dividends and increased awareness of the company among investors.
  • AMD's Turnaround Is Real
    AMD Yesterday, 10:49 AM Mark Hibben 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Following AMD's earnings report, the stock popped by 5% after hours.
    • The report made clear that AMD's console sales were not a fluke and can help sustain AMD in 2014.
    • PC sales remain a weak spot as Intel continues to successfully exploit its process advantage.
    • I expect that process advantage to be negated once Global Foundries and other ARM foundries put their own 14 nm FinFET processes into production.
  • Can Black Earth Farming Grow Profits?
    BLERF Yesterday, 10:48 AM Stephen Simpson, CFA 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Black Earth Farming owns a significant amount of productive farmland in Russia.
    • Management's actions have led to significant yield improvements across multiple crop varieties, while other actions (incl. crop insurance) have reduced risk.
    • Russian farmland seems meaningfully undervalued on the basis of its productivity, but the process of realizing any improvement will be long and likely accompanied by volatility.