Seeking Alpha
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism?
    Editors' pick SPY, QQQ, SH Today, 1:46 AM Jeff Miller 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Last week saw reduced volatility.
    • There is a possible seasonal inflection point - looking beyond weather effects.
    • Trading outlook is neutral.
    • Investors have opportunities in several sectors.
    • For economic insight, you might look to economists.
  • Thomson Reuters: Big Without 'Scale,' But The Times Are Changing
    Editors' pick TRI Yesterday, 8:55 AM Intangible Valuation Comment!

    Summary

    • Thomson Reuters is fully priced in context of recent results.
    • Yet it is in a turnaround -- the logic of which is very compelling.
    • In the context of a turnaround, Thomson Reuters is pretty attractive. It is worth watching. The corporation has been buying back stock at prices higher than today.
  • ACCO Brands: Value Trap In A Tight Spot
    Editors' pick ACCO Yesterday, 8:34 AM Felix Boisse 2 Comments

    Summary

    • ACCO Brands is the world's largest manufacturer and marketer of branded office and school supplies, including staplers, notepads, and binders.
    • On initial screen, ACCO Brands appears cheap with a P/E of 8.9x and P/B of 1.0x.
    • Value-destructive M&A, a weak position within the industry value chain, and declining demand for office supplies due to technological change makes ACCO Brands unattractive.
    • Computed intrinsic value of $4.00 implies the stock is overvalued by 50.2% vs. current price of $6.01.
    • No evidence of compelling catalysts or strategic value to improve profitability.
  • Lands' End: Spin-Off Situation With 60%-90% Upside
    Editors' pick LE Fri, Apr. 18, 10:49 AM New Capital 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Lands' End's recent listing and subsequent price drop seem to indicate a classical spin-off special situation that should generate excess profits for investors.
    • The company's online/catalog business produces stable FCF yield of 13% on current market cap. Increase in debt load will not affect results materially.
    • Relative to peers, Lands' End appears to have a potential upside of 60%-90%.
    • Catalysts include reduction in after spin-off selling, potential reinstatement of dividends and increased awareness of the company among investors.
  • Why The NeuStar Bears May Be Proven Wrong
    Editors' pick NSR Fri, Apr. 18, 8:51 AM Pedro De Noronha 7 Comments

    Summary

    • NeuStar became a deep value with a catalyst story.
    • Huge short interest (23% of shares out) may trigger a substantial short covering rally.
    • Catalyst imminent on May 6th with an asymmetric risk/reward very skewed to the upside.
  • Whiting Petroleum Working On The Second Act
    Editors' pick WLL Fri, Apr. 18, 8:39 AM Stephen Simpson, CFA 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Whiting has established a sizable acreage in the Williston/Bakken, and continues to have years of attractive drilling prospects.
    • Whiting's Redtail prospect in the Niobrara will likely be the next major source of production growth.
    • The Street seems to be worried about the "maturity" of Whiting's asset base, but the valuation looks too low today.
  • Dividend Growth Investment Or Compounding Machine? Brenntag Could Be Both
    Editors' pick BNTGF, BNTGY Fri, Apr. 18, 8:18 AM Early Retiree 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Brenntag is the global market leader, and enjoys strong competitive advantages.
    • The company will likely continue to grow organically and through acquisitions, further increasing its profitability.
    • Being highly diversified among industries and geographies makes the company largely independent from the volatility of any single specific market segment or region.
    • With little net debt, a dividend well covered by earnings and excellent growth prospects, the company is worth being considered by dividend growth investors as well.
  • Why I'm Buying Aviat Networks Hand Over Fist
    Top Idea AVNW Fri, Apr. 18, 5:00 AM Inefficient Market 83 Comments

    Summary

    • Net cash represents nearly 70% of market capitalization.
    • Currently trades for just 7% of revenue (EV/Revenue basis).
    • Trades 30% below tangible book value.
    • Management forecasting a return to profitability during second half of calendar 2014.
    • Bullish long-term outlook in a growing industry.
  • Health Insurance Innovations: Positive Outcome Looks More Likely In This Binary Stock
    Editors' pick HIIQ Thu, Apr. 17, 8:43 PM Ashleigh Rogers Comment!

    Summary

    • Health Insurance Innovations is still a good investment for investors willing to stomach risk and volatility.
    • Revenues are ramping and meaningful profits should materialize this year and double next year.
    • The stock looks like a binary play - in five years it will probably have been either massively profitable for investors or a complete flop.
    • Earnings releases and management commentary are supportive of the positive outcome.
  • Cincinnati Bell Turns A Corner
    Editors' pick CBB Thu, Apr. 17, 8:36 PM Mike Arnold 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Cincinnati Bell recently agreed to sell its legacy wireless business to Verizon for $210 million.
    • The company holds a 69% interest in CyrusOne with a stated goal of liquidating the investment over the next several years.
    • Asset sales will help Cincinnati Bell delever itself, and focus on its higher growth Fioptics segment.
  • These Numbers Show That Box CEO Aaron Levie Is A Genius
    Editors' pick BOX Thu, Apr. 17, 7:20 PM Tien Tzuo 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Most investors don't understand the subscription-based, recurring revenue business model of software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies.
    • Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is a key metric for subscription businesses and a critical indicator of a company's health, but accounting rules don't recognize it.
    • Box CEO Aaron Levie has built a growing, profitable SaaS company. He's a true genius - and this article explains why.
  • Coca-Cola: Downside Is Less Than 5%
    Editors' pick KO Thu, Apr. 17, 2:41 PM Stock Gamer 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Improved volume trend should sustain strong cash generation.
    • KO has sufficient capacity to support ~8% dividend growth and $1-$2B share buyback per annum.
    • Dividend growth and yield ceiling should limit price downside, and $37 appears to be the bottom price.
    • Current valuation is reasonable relative to S&P 500's level and only reflects less than 6% annual dividend growth rate.
  • SolarCity Retained Value Redux: The Utilities Strike Back
    Editors' pick SCTY Thu, Apr. 17, 11:43 AM Casual Analyst 67 Comments

    Summary

    • With increased solar penetration, utilities are looking at a dramatic reduction in energy sales and the threat of having to write off the uncompetitive or underutilized assets.
    • Connection charges and rate tiers are examples of the powerful option that utilities have to slow down solar penetration.
    • Companies like SCTY and SUNE are likely to see significant compression in retained values as the utilities fight back.
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You
    Editors' pick GLD Thu, Apr. 17, 11:25 AM Jeffrey Dow Jones 271 Comments

    Summary

    • $800/oz. That's how low gold could go. No joke.
    • Gold is still tremendously overvalued relative to its fundamental trend, masked by what is slowly being accepted as a bubble in 2011.
    • Regardless of which direction gold goes from here, there are strategies that are vastly superior to buying and holding.
    • A basic trend-following approach has generated almost double the return of gold with less volatility.
  • Where There's Smoke, There May Not Be Fire: E-Cigs
    Editors' pick VPCO, LO, ECIG Thu, Apr. 17, 8:21 AM Dr. Harold Goldmeier 34 Comments

    Summary

    • It's not clear if Big Tobacco sees e-cigs as a potential profit center, putting all their marketing muscle behind the devices, or as a threat and crush the industry.
    • Government and health agencies do not accept e-cigs as risk-free and stop-smoking aids. They are vulnerable to regulation, even banishment, and there are patent lawsuits pending.
    • Investing in Big Tobacco stocks is not investing in e-cigs, but there are several independent companies making a lot of noise, and one preparing for an IPO.
  • Is There Adequate Bench Strength For Digital Realty?
    Editors' pick DLR Thu, Apr. 17, 7:00 AM Brad Thomas 12 Comments

    Summary

    • When it comes down to succession planning, it’s critical that each company has “bench strength.”.
    • With no CEO, I feel kind of like the cruise ship passenger.
    • The key question for me is making sure that the ship sails smoothly until the new CEO is steering the vessel.
    • So I suppose I could jump off and redeploy the capital into a safer boat, one that has a captain.
  • Same Stuff, Different Year: Should Shareholders Stick With IBM?
    Editors' pick IBM Thu, Apr. 17, 5:12 AM DoctoRx 61 Comments

    Summary

    • In all my articles on IBM, I have argued that new money was better off in other stocks.
    • Now I examine whether existing shareholders should sell their IBM shares.
    • Was this poor Q1 "the last straw?"
  • Ignite Restaurant Group: Hidden Value In The Company's Attractive Assets
    Top Idea IRG Thu, Apr. 17, 5:00 AM Shaun Currie, CFA 11 Comments

    Summary

    • IRG's valuation has been weighed down by the Macaroni Grill acquisition, but the company's other assets are worth much more that the current enterprise value.
    • Recent management shake-up at Macaroni Grill and management commentary leads me to believe that this segment is stabilizing.
    • If we were to assign a valuation of zero to Macaroni Grill, instead of its current negative valuation, we could see IRG's stock move into the $20-25 range.
    • Even if the business does not stabilize, the segment's attractive real estate portfolio allows for conversions to Brick House Taverns at a lower cost than new builds, or possible monetization.
  • Staples: Industry Consolidation Leading To 50% Upside
    Top Idea SPLS Thu, Apr. 17, 5:00 AM CDM Capital 30 Comments

    Summary

    • The poor quarter was negatively skewed by difficult comps against a 53rd week, unfavorable foreign exchange rates, and 109 store closures.
    • The market systematically underestimates the speed at which industry consolidation will take place between Office Depot and Office Max.
    • The street under appreciates Staples market leading position, as well as its growing e-commerce business.
    • Private equity is likely a potential suitor in a non-levered high free cash flow retailer with significant hidden value in its online business.
    • Business trades at around 10x LTM earnings, with significant free cash flow levers starting in 2015.
  • VASCO Data Security To Benefit From Heartbleed Bug, Opportunity To Unlock Value Via Tender Offer/Special Dividend
    Top Idea VDSI Thu, Apr. 17, 5:00 AM Dr. Hugh Akston 3 Comments

    Summary

    • VDSI positioned to benefit from Heartbleed bug raising awareness of fixed password vulnerability.
    • Wall Street expectations for FY 2014 look too low, Q1 earnings should be catalyst.
    • VDSI should conduct tender offer for 10% of the shares outstanding at $8 per share and pay a one-time dividend of $1 per share.
    • The economic situation in Europe is on the mend, will benefit VDSI order intake.
  • Economic Outlook For The Rest Of 2014: Stuck In Neutral
    Editors' pick EEM, FXE, GLD Wed, Apr. 16, 2:46 PM Nimble Capital Research 43 Comments

    Summary

    • Apparent increase in liquidity merely dormant bank reserves and not transmitting through into the economy. Personal saving rate remains low.
    • Net wealth growing strongly but distribution and allocation not supportive of acceleration in short-term consumption expenditures. Personal income disposition reveals similar trends.
    • Unemployment falling but more as a result of benefit expiry rather than increased employment. Job creation remains of low quality.
    • Lending growth poor and related seemingly-positive metrics likely artificial. Mortgages and housing market weak.
    • Capital expenditure sluggish and likely to remain so due to structural, not cyclical, factors.
  • Weight Watchers International - Is The Fat Lady Singing?
    Editors' pick WTW Wed, Apr. 16, 2:04 PM Independent Value 17 Comments

    Summary

    • WTW is currently valued at a 39% discount to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value for its business.
    • Discount is due to 50%+ decline in share price over last 12 months, attributable to recent negative trends and business underperformance.
    • Negative trends are temporary, while underperformance is attributable to operational issues which are all fixable - they are not indicative of permanent flaws in WTW's business model or prospects.
  • Do Mako Investors Realize Their Tenuous Security Position In Oceanica?
    Editors' pick OMEX Wed, Apr. 16, 1:26 PM Meson Capital Partners 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Mako Resources investors appear to have few rights to Oceanica assets due to senior OMEX payable security. Mako investors need to ask serious questions.
    • Did Josh Adam of Mako negotiate this transaction at arm's length with OMEX in line with his fiduciary duty?
    • Josh Adam, SVP Finance, used Highly Questionable brokers to raise capital for Neptune (OMEX's other mining venture), according to recent disclosures.
    • Is the vague J.P. Morgan Oceanica connection merely through a local Chase Private Client Florida branch attempting to sell unregistered securities to HNW investors?
  • Constructing And Designing The Stock Portfolio That's Just Right For You: Part 1
    Editors' pick AEP, BAC, BGG Wed, Apr. 16, 12:39 PM Chuck Carnevale 106 Comments

    Summary

    • There is a lot more to designing a successful stock portfolio than simply stock selection.
    • Since there is no one-size-fits-all or perfect option applicable to everyone, a strong working knowledge of most of the major available options is indispensable.
    • Peter Lynch presented six general categories of stocks that investors can choose from: Slow Growers, Stalwarts, Fast Growers, Cyclicals, Asset Plays and Turnarounds.
  • BofI Holding: After H&R Block Transaction, Still Overpriced At Almost 4x Book Value
    Editors' pick BOFI Wed, Apr. 16, 9:00 AM Kerrisdale Capital Management 8 Comments

    Summary

    • BOFI is over-earning and overpriced, and the H&R Block deal doesn't change that.
    • Five other banks looked at the deal and passed or bid less than BOFI, indicating the low value of the asset.
    • Prepaid-card issuing banks have much lower valuations and lower returns than BOFI does today, supporting our view that BOFI's profits are unsustainably high.
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q1 2014 Income Statement Projection - Part 2
    Editors' pick AGNC Wed, Apr. 16, 8:29 AM Scott Kennedy 31 Comments

    Summary

    • I am projecting AGNC will report a net gain (loss) on sale of derivative instruments and other securities of ($400) million for the first quarter of 2014.
    • I am projecting AGNC will report a management fees expense of $30 million for the first quarter of 2014.
    • I am projecting AGNC will report a net income (loss) of ($412) million for the first quarter of 2014.
    • I am projecting AGNC will report earnings of ($1.17) per share for the first quarter of 2014.
    • Part 3 of the article will project AGNC's other comprehensive income (loss) amount and summarize the company's entire income statement.
  • HCP Is Climbing Back Up, Should I Get Back In The Game?
    Editors' pick HCP Wed, Apr. 16, 7:21 AM Brad Thomas 41 Comments

    Summary

    • It seems that Mr. Market may have found a bottom for HCP, and now, maybe it's time to get back in the game?
    • There aren't too many REITs with that track record, especially HCP that boasts a record of 29 years of consecutive dividends paid.
    • When selecting sound securities, one needs some kind of buffer to protect against market fluctuations – a margin of safety.
    • Last year, we saw HCP's price rising, and as we often recognize, greed leads investors to speculate, to make substantial, high-risk bets based upon optimistic predictions.
  • Lifetime Brands: A Mundane Company, With Exciting Profit Potential
    Top Idea LCUT Wed, Apr. 16, 5:00 AM Helix Investment Research 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Lifetime's mundane business belies its profit potential.
    • The company expanded gross margins during the key holiday quarter, alongside rising revenues and EPS.
    • With insiders owning 22% of outstanding shares, capital is being deployed in an accretive fashion.
    • Continued moves to enlarge brand portfolio and international presence will increase Lifetime's addressable market.
  • Qiagen: Why I Prefer Waiting On The Sidelines
    Editors' pick QGEN Tue, Apr. 15, 10:53 PM Andy Batts 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Qiagen tries to drive revenue growth by boosting the global adoption of QIAsymphony and QuantiFeron-TB.
    • It is highly unlikely that these products would drive shareholder value in terms of earnings and share price growth.
    • The company is increasingly taking inorganic route for generating cash, which is worrisome.
    • The management needs to understand that there is a fine line between responsibly growing shareholder value and doing whatever is needed for generating cash.
  • Hotel Industry: Competitive Factors And Discussion Of Hotel Franchisors As An Investment Opportunity
    Editors' pick IHG Tue, Apr. 15, 11:42 AM Thomas Kennedy 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Both hotel franchisors and franchisees experience inflation resistant growth, helping to deliver positive real returns to investors.
    • Hotel franchisors exhibit strong competitive advantages and impressive returns on capital, especially amongst market leaders, making a strong case for investing in the sector.
    • The hotel industry goes through regular, predictable cycles, which affects the number of guests staying at hotels, the revenue per room, and growth in the number of hotels.
    • This market cycle dramatically affects the profits of hotel owners due to their high level of operating leverage, but has a diminished impact on franchisors.
    • Many of the top hotel franchisors have reached lofty relative valuations, and would warrant a pullback before purchasing shares, with IHG presenting the best buying opportunity.
  • Immune Pharma Tackling Orphan Disease Bullous Pemphigoid
    Editors' pick IMNP Tue, Apr. 15, 11:37 AM Jason Napodano 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Bertilimumab is a first-in-class fully human monoclonal antibody that is directed against eotaxin-1, a potent chemoattractant and activator of eosinophils.
    • Eosinophils are implicated in the inflammatory changes seen in various inflammatory disorders such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), asthma, and dermatological diseases such as bullous pemphigoid (BP).
    • BP is an orphan dermatological disease that affects approximately 12,000 people in the U.S. each year.
    • Eotaxin-1 plays a role in the recruitment of inflammatory cells to skin lesions in patients with BP and represents a novel therapeutic target for this disease.
  • EMC Corp.: 20% - 25% Upside In 1 Year
    Editors' pick EMC Tue, Apr. 15, 10:47 AM Suneet Chandvani 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Trade: Long EMC Current price: 26.75 Expected price: 33 Upside: 23% Time: 1 year.
    • Thesis: Cheap valuations, EMC on a stand-alone basis (excluding VMware) is significantly mispriced, huge cash pile, share buybacks, market leader, taking market share from competitors, sticky business, focus on innovation.
    • EMC is trading at a discount even on a very conservative basis and the market is ignoring its competitive advantages including quality, breadth of offerings, strong distribution, after sales service.
  • Small Is Beautiful: My Favorite Bank Stock Has A Strong Quarter
    Editors' pick HIFS Tue, Apr. 15, 9:06 AM DoctoRx 6 Comments

    Summary

    • One of the country's strongest community banks, Hingham Institution for Savings showed strong growth in Q1 on several metrics.
    • The stock is cheap on price:book as well as price:earnings, and has a competitive yield.
    • Investors are warned that liquidity in this equity is poor.
  • La Quinta's IPO Should Provide An Extended Stay Of Share Price Appreciation
    Editors' pick LQ Tue, Apr. 15, 8:56 AM Dallas Salazar 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Bad luck with IPO timing could price in a share price discount that would make a new position attractive.
    • LQ's majority owners, Blackstone, bring an incredibly valuable active management to the company that will pay huge dividends.
    • LQ's growth strategy is well planned and I expect them to execute it effectively.
  • Ziopharm: Attempting To Rise Again In A Crowded Space
    Editors' pick ZIOP Tue, Apr. 15, 8:36 AM The Behavioral Economist 8 Comments

    Summary

    • A year removed from a significant trial disappointment, Ziopharm is attempting to once again gain traction.
    • With enough cash to carry the company through mid-2015, Ziopharm's upcoming phase two data release could be a massive boost to future prospects.
    • With innovative therapeutic technology in its corner, Ziopharm's lead compound could make a noteworthy impact on considerable markets.
    • After restructuring in mid-2013, Ziopharm has become leaner and meaner, putting it in a better position to achieve.
    • A considerable amount of ambiguity surrounding Ziopharm's 2013 trial failure leaves many investors skeptical and suspicious.
  • I'm Buying W.P. Carey For The Long Haul
    Editors' pick WPC Tue, Apr. 15, 7:00 AM Brad Thomas 78 Comments

    Summary

    • S&P recently provided WPC with a strong credit rating.
    • WPC increased its quarterly cash dividend to $0.895 per share, which equates to an annualized rate of $3.58.
    • Carey’s 15-year track record for dividend performance “seals the deal.”.
  • Kodiak Oil & Gas: A New Paradigm - A Moderate-Risk Development 'Story'
    Top Idea KOG Tue, Apr. 15, 5:00 AM Richard Zeits 26 Comments

    Summary

    • The article provides illustrative valuation analysis of Kodiak’s drilling inventory, including risks and upsides.
    • The stock is priced very reasonably relative to its value potential.
    • The transition into full development mode and substantially reduced operating risk should help to close the gap between the stock price and the underlying NAV.
  • 1347 Property Insurance Holdings: An IPO Left For Dead With Upside Of 50%-100%
    Top Idea PIH Tue, Apr. 15, 5:00 AM Alpha Gen Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • National property insurers continue to reduce their exposure to Louisiana and other coastal markets.
    • Premiums have skyrocketed in certain states allowing Maison to cherry-pick high margin policies.
    • The volatile insurance climate as it pertains to more weather losses has been overrated and biased by Katrina.
    • Lower reinsurance rates should be a nice tailwind in the near-to-medium term.
  • The Global Banking Game Is Rigged, And The FDIC Is Suing
    Editors' pick JPM, C, BAC Mon, Apr. 14, 6:14 PM Ellen Brown 16 Comments
  • Halcon Resources: Strong Read-Across From Goodrich's TMS Result
    Editors' pick HK Mon, Apr. 14, 2:16 PM Richard Zeits 30 Comments

    Summary

    • The outstanding Blades 33H-1 well result in the TMS reported this morning by Goodrich Petroleum has a strong positive read-across to Halcon.
    • Halcon's first TMS well, the Horseshoe Hill 11-22H-1, is expected next month, and another five wells are planned to be spudded by July.
    • The Blades well provides a potent catalyst for Halcon's stock. Another half a dozen offset operator well results are expected within two months.
  • Citigroup: High-Risk, High-Reward Turnaround
    Editors' pick C Mon, Apr. 14, 8:31 AM Shiv Kapoor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Citigroup was severely wounded by the financial crisis, and was rescued by the U.S. government.
    • Much of the repair to the balance sheet is done, but the task remains incomplete. Risks remain elevated.
    • But there is light at the end of the tunnel. After that, it's a matter of realizing their true earnings potential.
    • The stock is attractively priced at a 17% discount to tangible book value.
  • Why I'm Strongly Considering A Position In Extra Space Storage
    Editors' pick EXR Mon, Apr. 14, 7:16 AM Brad Thomas 19 Comments

    Summary

    • I often voice my disfavor for analysts, authors and investors who try to pitch some confusing thesis for a stock that is predicted to achieve high returns with short-term trades.
    • Some of you may remember the 1982 new wave hit song (by Thomas Dolby), She Blinded Me With Science.
    • I intend to establish a position in Extra Space at $45.00, although I have no confidence when I’ll be afforded that opportunity.
  • Crown Holdings: Boring, Safe, And Hugely Profitable
    Editors' pick CCK Sun, Apr. 13, 4:22 PM Value Vista UK 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Crown Holdings is a high quality company operating in an industry with high barriers to entry.
    • Costs in the beverage division are lowest in the industry, incremental return of 20% on past ten years of capex.
    • Business is highly cash-generative, sells at significant discount to the amount of cash that will be generated over the next five years.
    • Investing heavily in growth in developing markets. Acquisition of Mivisa supports these attributes.
  • Is Now The Time To Buy Atrion Corporation?
    Editors' pick ATRI Sun, Apr. 13, 4:04 PM Kevin Quon Comment!

    Summary

    • Atrion Corp. has historically been an outperforming company.
    • Atrion's multiple markets and product diversity provides increased stability.
    • Long-term contracts have helped provide revenue consistency.
    • Despite solid performance, the stock may be outpacing the company's growth.
  • What Next? Clues From The Futures Markets And Other Sources
    Editors' pick TLT, SPY, TLH Sun, Apr. 13, 9:33 AM DoctoRx 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Positioning by futures market participants has correlated with peaks in asset prices in stocks, bonds and oil since the Great Recession.
    • There is a consistent message suggested now by those positions across all three investment types.
    • This message suggests a bond-friendly move lower in both stock and oil prices, though the stock market may be poised for a nice rebound.
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster
    Editors' pick MU Sun, Apr. 13, 9:02 AM Electric Phred 191 Comments

    Summary

    • Micron's disclosure on its disastrous convertible bonds is incomplete and this limited disclosure has been tardy in being started.
    • Wall St analysts are not writing about the effects of Micron's convertible bonds.
    • These convertible bonds have burnt up billions of cash equity.
  • Why Stocks Won't Crash (For Now)
    Editors' pick SPY, SH, SSO Sun, Apr. 13, 8:44 AM Asia Confidential 298 Comments
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail
    Editors' pick DIA, SPY, QQQ Sun, Apr. 13, 1:06 AM Jeff Miller 48 Comments

    Summary

    • Potential for Exceptionally High Volatility-- lots of events in a short week with options expiration.
    • Earnings could move things either way, so planning is required.
    • Traders might start by being neutral, prepared for agile moves.
    • Investors could be tested. They all know the theory of fading the market on interim moves, but few can execute.
    • Fundamental evidence suggests that any decline will not be a crash.
  • Stalwart Tankers Should Delay Their IPO Indefinitely
    Editors' pick STST Sat, Apr. 12, 4:15 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • STST operates with massive levels of debt and leverage that make this a risky position.
    • STST will need to raise debt, or dilute shareholders on a regular basis going forward.
    • STST will need a flawless execution of their growth strategy and help from financing to remain solvent.
  • Weight Watchers - Bear Side Of The Argument
    Editors' pick WTW Sat, Apr. 12, 10:41 AM New Capital 21 Comments

    Summary

    • The company seems to be in permanent decline in its offline segment, and the number of subscribers in online business have also started to drop recently.
    • Due to intense competition from free aps, as well as network effects of similar type of businesses, the rebound of Weight Watchers is very unlikely.
    • Management has not acted in the interest of common shareholders, are selling stock right after option conversions and have only immaterial holdings in the company.
    • Weight Watchers' significant annual interest payments are likely to consume majority of the earnings in the upcoming years, and might even cause liquidity concerns.
    • Currently, there does not seem to be any upside for long investors.