Seeking Alpha
  • MMA Capital Management: NAV Suggests Shares Have 100-150% Upside
    MMAC Today, 7:40 AM Michael A. Williams Comment!

    Summary

    • After adjusting MMA's obscure balance sheet, NAV is $19.90, or $25.90 including considerable NOLs.
    • MMA continues to repurchase stock at a deep discount to NAV, and management is personally buying stock.
    • Several transactions over the past six months have unlocked additional value.
  • U.S. IPO Weekly Recap: SolarEdge Shines While Other IPOs Fall Flat
    GDDY, SEDG, ENPH Today, 7:39 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research Comment!
  • Landauer - New Competitive Product Threatens Core Business
    PRO Top Idea LDR Today, 5:00 AM Sleuth Investor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • LDR's Radiation Measurement business drives nearly all of LDR's profits and faces a new competitive threat that could erase more than 50% of EBITDA.
    • We believe Instadose 2, developed by LDR's primary competitor, privately-held Mirion, is ramping up commercial production and will beat Verifii to the market by at least 1 year.
    • LDR hopes to launch Verifii (similar to Instadose 2) in calendar 2016. We are skeptical LDR hits their timeline and think late 2017/2018 is more likely.
    • At a recent industry conference, Mirion noted a waiting list of nearly 195,000 units of Instadose 2 badges (~10% of the market), many of which are currently LDR customers.
    • LDR trades at 10.7x FY15 EBITDA with 3x leverage. We think the stock is worth $5 to $25 and that investors are unaware of the threat posed by Instadose 2.
  • Freeport-McMoRan: The Market Is Clearly Mistaken About This One... A Textbook Case
    FCX Today, 4:14 AM Alexander Valtsev Comment!

    Summary

    • Freeport-McMoRan has shown the best financial results in the industry over the last three years. This has to be credited to the company.
    • Metals and hydrocarbons' prices are higher in the present time than they were six years ago when the company's stock traded at the same price level as today.
    • The company is in the bottom quartile in relative valuation, although its fundamentals are as dependent on the commodities market as its peers' are. This is clearly unfair.
  • Why I Think Melcor Development Is A Buy
    Editors' Pick MODVF Today, 2:52 AM Kevin Wiens Comment!

    Summary

    • Melcor Development is a real estate development company operating primarily in Alberta.
    • Past results indicate to me that the company is well managed.
    • My guess is the depressed share price is due to predictions of a rough property market in Alberta due to depressed oil and gas prices.
    • My estimate is that shares have about 40% of upside potential from current levels. As such, I have bought an initial position.
  • How Caterpillar Can Quickly Improve Its Financial Situation
    CAT Today, 2:42 AM Daniel Jones 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite being a strong company with a long and impressive operating history, the past three years have been particularly painful for Caterpillar.
    • Aside from its North America operations, its results globally have been going downhill and one particular segment is to blame, Resource Industries.
    • By spinning off this segment, the business can quickly and easily turn itself around and focus on areas that will likely create more value going forward.
  • Dunkin' Brands Group Should Part Ways With Baskin-Robbins
    DNKN Today, 1:31 AM Daniel Jones 1 Comment

    Summary

    • As rival Starbucks grows rapidly, Dunkin' Brands Group is being slowed down by low sales and profit growth from Baskin-Robbins U.S. and falling profit at Baskin-Robbins International.
    • By either selling or spinning off one or both of these segments, the company has the potential to focus on its core brand, which would serve shareholders better.
    • Absent this kind of action, it's more likely that the business will continue to trail Starbucks, despite the benefit of its smaller size.
  • J.C. Penney Looks To Be Almost Out Of The Woods
    JCP Yesterday, 11:15 PM Daniel Jones 1 Comment

    Summary

    • After a few really terrible years following some poor management decisions, the financial situation at J.C. Penney appears to be getting a lot better.
    • Given growing comparable store sales and a growth in margins, the retailer looks like an interesting prospect for value investors.
    • While risks remain, the business does provide investors with a noticeable margin of safety as well, which should convert to value if management doesn't materially err moving forward.
  • Disney's A Great Stock... For The Right Investors
    DIS Yesterday, 10:52 PM Daniel Jones 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The Walt Disney Company is one of the largest and most successful businesses on Earth, with strong diversification and a phenomenal operating history.
    • Even Warren Buffett claimed that, after selling the stock after a year of holding it for a 50% gain, was a major mistake of his.
    • However, just because a company is great doesn't mean that the business is right for every investor. With a high trading multiple, this is especially true of Disney.
  • American Express Down 14% Year To Date, But We're Staying Long
    AXP Yesterday, 9:36 PM Individual Trader 5 Comments

    Summary

    • I expect QE4 to come this year, which will force stocks higher in nominal terms. American Express excelled throughout QE1, 2 & 3.
    • Its closed loop network provides valuable customer data. This data will be used to up-sell more products so it can acquire more transactions.
    • American Express announced a 46.6 billion buyback scheme for shareholders this month. The company is also aggressively collaborating with other vendors to ensure maximum visibility in the market.
  • Go Long In Charles Schwab
    SCHW Yesterday, 9:30 PM Stock Gazer 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The Charles Schwab Corporation has had a strong start to its FY 2015, with revenue trade volumes increasing and total client assets reaching a record $2.53 trillion.
    • The company's revenues as well as margins have been boosted by its interest earnings, as well as its asset management business.
    • There are definitely upsides in store for the company's share prices given the strong performance of its key elements as well as a strong outlook for them.
    • With a rise in interest rates imminent and Charles Schwab's business model and structure tying its income to market interest rates, the company's interest-based revenues will continue to grow.
    • Investors have remained confident in the company over the years, and it has rewarded investors through dividends, as well as capital gains.
  • Elon Musk's Statement On Chinese Scalpers Contradict Tesla Spokesman
    TSLA Yesterday, 8:09 PM Alberto Zaragoza Comendador 129 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla states it has inventory apart from loaners and demo cars.
    • Elon Musk says scalpers led Tesla to build too many China-bound cars, which are now in inventory.
    • However, this statement does not square with what spokesman Sproule said six months ago.
  • Apollo Warns, Get Out Of For-Profit Education Now
    APOL Yesterday, 7:06 PM Dana Blankenhorn 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Parent of the University of Phoenix crashed overnight on losses.
    • The whole sector is going down the drain as the "baby boom echo" fades and unemployment falls.
    • Don't wait for the dead cat bounce. Get out now.
  • SolarEdge: Standout In The Solar PV Inverter Industry
    SEDG Yesterday, 7:00 PM Simple Investment Ideas 1 Comment

    Summary

    • SolarEdge just had an incredibly successful IPO on Thursday, raising approximately $126M.
    • SolarEdge has a technological edge moving forward, which clearly shows in its dominance of the distributed solar optimization space.
    • SolarEdge has a first mover's advantage in the incredibly promising solar PV inverter industry, and has already established extremely impactful business relationships.
    • While SolarEdge's strong business relations with leading residential solar companies, namely SolarCity, give it a huge competitive edge, this overdependence on a few large players also poses significant risks.
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On Superjumbos (Part 4)
    BA Yesterday, 6:03 PM Dhierin Bechai 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Boeing 777-9X poses biggest threat to Airbus A380ceo.
    • Airbus A380neo will combine capacity as well as luxury that the Boeing 777-9X cannot achieve.
    • Belly freight will be one of the weak points of the A380.
  • India's Commitment To Solar PV Will Deeply Impact Solar Manufacturing
    CSIQ, FSLR, SUNE Yesterday, 5:53 PM Simple Investment Ideas 8 Comments

    Summary

    • India is erasing any doubts about its solar PV intentions, most recently advancing the financing aspect.
    • The emergence of India's solar market over the next decade should dramatically alter the solar landscape for the better.
    • Solar manufacturers that are fully embracing the Indian market should benefit tremendously as the Indian solar market matures.
  • Double Or Triple Top, Slowing Adds, Increasing Content Costs Spell Doom For Netflix
    NFLX Yesterday, 5:50 PM David White 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Net adds appear to be weakening, or at least stagnating.
    • Free cash flow has gone negative; and it is trending more negative.
    • Content costs are rising roughly an order of magnitude faster than revenues; and NFLX is still losing lots of good titles.
    • The chart of NFLX stock prices shows that the likelihood of a substantial move downward is technically very probable.
  • Gene Simmons To Help WWE Scare Up Revenues For Its Movie Business
    WWE Yesterday, 5:47 PM Steven Mallas Comment!

    Summary

    • WWE and Gene Simmons form Erebus Pictures to make horror movies.
    • Simmons could help WWE add value to its movie division, but how much money he takes from the deal is a key concern.
    • WWE's business model for movies perhaps should expose itself to more risk.
  • Goldman Sachs Starting To Shake As Legal Costs Rise
    GS Yesterday, 5:29 PM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • GS is raising its estimate for legal costs to $3 billion, being the target of a federal civil lawsuit, pertaining to residential mortgage-backed securities.
    • Despite this, results are strong, and GS still boasts a competitive advantage among peers.
    • While we continue to be optimistic on the firm's prospects in 2015, investors might consider other financial institutions, less embroiled in repeated scandals.
  • Diamond Offshore & Competitors, Offshore Drilling Analysis
    DO Yesterday, 5:28 PM Dorien Xia 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) has experienced heavy insider buying over the past few months.
    • The long lag time for offshore drilling means that DO will likely maintain positive earnings for time to come.
    • Other offshore drilling companies such as Seadrill have stronger fundamentals and are also well positioned to survive in a low price environment.
  • Schlumberger - One Of The Best Current Oil Plays
    SLB Yesterday, 5:15 PM The Value Portfolio 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The current oil crash caught nearly everyone - including me by surprise causing a sharp price decrease for oilfield service companies.
    • Many of the largest oilfields in the world are currently in decline and need to be replaced.
    • Schlumberger's large international exposure and new technology put it in a great position for a future recovery in the industry.
  • Here's Why We Think Zynga's Gross Margin Could Decline In The Future
    ZNGA Yesterday, 5:13 PM Trefis 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Zynga’s bookings and average monthly active user base fell by 3% and 31% during 2014.
    • The factors that work to depress Zynga’s gross margin are likely to be partially offset by the impact of actions it is now taking to improve its business.
    • Our $2.30 price estimate for Zynga, implies a discount of about 15% to the current market price.
  • Here Are Some Key Triggers For Groupon's Stock
    GRPN Yesterday, 5:08 PM Trefis 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Groupon aims to significantly expand its merchant network and move toward non-email based marketing strategies to increase its traction among customers globally.
    • In the event, Groupon is able to expand its active merchant network significantly to over 1.3 million active merchants by the end of our review period, then it would lead to over 30% upside in our price estimate.
    • Our $8.01 price estimate for Groupon’s stock is approximately 5% above the current market price.
  • Potbelly: Rebound Potential
    PBPB Yesterday, 4:57 PM Stone Fox Capital Comment!

    Summary

    • Potbelly continues a trend of beating estimates while the stock bumps along the bottom.
    • Despite the large stock decline after irrational trading following an IPO, the stock trades at an exceptionally large forward PE ratio.
    • Investors need to keep the stock on a watch list due to the long-term growth potential, but one shouldn't expect the stock to rebound now.
  • Worthington Industries - Cyclicality And Leverage Remain Concerns As The Valuation Improves
    WOR Yesterday, 4:51 PM The Value Investor Comment!

    Summary

    • Worthington Industries reports relatively soft results as it will reorganize its engineered cabs business.
    • This move is welcomed by investors who have been anticipating soft quarterly results.
    • While shares have hit my desired previous entry point, I am a bit cautious to buy at current levels.
    • The increase in leverage at a relatively favorable point in the economic cycle makes me not a buyer at the current moment.
  • Hyatt Hotels: Well Run, But Not The Best Opportunity In The Industry
    H Yesterday, 4:38 PM Brian Bent 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Hyatt Hotels has resisted the urge to sacrifice sound financial principles to fund aggressive expansion in a resurgent lodgings industry.
    • The company instead chooses to adopt creative practices to foster growth while remaining financially sound.
    • While Hyatt's efforts are commendable, and it may prove to be a good investment, there are better opportunities in the industry.
  • Zacks' Bull Of The Day: Multi-Color
    LABL Yesterday, 4:12 PM Zacks Investment Research Comment!
  • American International Group: No Power To Move Higher?
    AIG Yesterday, 4:04 PM Achilles Research 8 Comments

    Summary

    • American International Group has again failed to break through the crucial resistance level at $56.
    • This is the third time that shares are retreating from the $56 level.
    • I discuss two catalysts that could lead to renewed momentum for AIG's shares.
    • Long-term investors will be tested on their patience.
  • InVivo Revolutionizing Spinal Cord Injury
    NVIV Yesterday, 3:47 PM Jason Napodano, CFA 20 Comments

    Summary

    • InVivo's pilot study of the company's neuro-spinal scaffolding is going exceptionally well. The company is "2 for 2" in terms of returning previously completely paralyzed patients to some motor function.
    • Over the next several months, InVivo will enroll another three patients in the IDE pilot study. We expect steady news flow over the summer months on all five patients.
    • InVivo running the pilot study under a humanitarian use device pathway. We believe a registration study will begin next year.
    • Despite a meaningful run in the shares over the past six months, we see tremendous upside left in the stock; this is a revolutionary breakthrough device for spinal cord injury.
  • Time To Get On Board Carnival
    CCL Yesterday, 3:44 PM Christopher F. Davis 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Carnival Corporation is by far the largest cruise company in the world and despite setbacks in recent years it is looking attractive.
    • Two macroeconomic factors are signaling a buy; increased employment and declining oil and gas prices.
    • I expect bookings to rise and strong revenue yields for 2015 despite a strengthening U.S. dollar which will impact overall earnings.
  • Against The Gloom And Doom, We're Sticking To Our $70 Call On Las Vegas Sands
    LVS Yesterday, 3:42 PM Howard Jay Klein 5 Comments

    Summary

    • We see a still robust $38 billion annual Macau gaming market emerging from the downdraft.
    • Update by local execs who see innovative responses to smoking ban.
    • New 3,000 room Parisian will be marketed to the "new normal" and produce strong results.
    • We're a month away from LVS Q1 earnings release: Consensus 75c works but could surprise.
  • Could Vivendi Become The French Bertelsmann Or Should It Be Dismantled?
    VIVEF Yesterday, 3:20 PM Lee Boy 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The asset disposals generated €17 billion in 2014 and Vivendi is finally out of the Telecom industry.
    • The Group is becoming a mass media corporation focused on content and looks more and more like a French Bertelsmann.
    • The widely expected return to the shareholders diappointed and an activist investor claims that dismantling the company would unlock value.
    • Considering the commitment of the Management, Universal Music’s prospects in the paid streaming business and Canal+’s prospects in Africa, I believe that there is more value in the long-term.
  • The Philosopher Series, Part XVI: What Would De Beauvoir Invest In Today?
    GM, PEP, YHOO Yesterday, 3:17 PM Get Rich Brothers Comment!

    Summary

    • De Beauvoir was a twentieth-century groundbreaking feminist.
    • I have chosen three companies for inclusion in her portfolio.
    • De Beauvoir believed individuals have the opportunity to define themselves outside of learned societal constructs.
  • Ascent Solar Technologies: Not A Sunny Future
    ASTI Yesterday, 2:57 PM Sneha Shah 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Weak balance sheet forcing repeated equity dilutions.
    • Solar thin film technology is losing out to crystalline silicon technology.
    • Limited BIPV projects.
    • Falling share prices and poor performance.
  • Cegedim: Less Attractive After Strong Gains
    CGMJF Yesterday, 2:52 PM Early Retiree Comment!

    Summary

    • My investment thesis, as presented in October, has played out as foreseen.
    • The company is in the midst of a large reorganization that will lead to a series of improvements and create a slowly growing cash flow machine.
    • If everything works out fine, there will be further multiple expansions, but this will almost certainly require a multi-year time frame.
  • Endurance, GoDaddy, Wix, And Web.com: Choosing Growth Or Leverage
    EIGI, GDDY, WIX Yesterday, 2:51 PM Techonoclast Comment!

    Summary

    • The web hosting space is largely commoditized due to low barriers to entry, so each player must survive either through delivering returns to scale or differentiated technology sets.
    • Web.com has management buying stock and is maintaining a strategy of profitability and low growth while Wix.com is spending aggressively to achieve returns to scale.
    • Endurance and GoDaddy have both scale and impressive growth, Endurance through acquiring growth and technology and GoDaddy through a high R&D & S&M spend.
    • It remains a question how much leverage both Endurance and GoDaddy can achieve in their model while maintaining their high growth rates, to be explored further later.
    • Endurance's CEO's aggressive selling of stock raises questions, although it does not provide conclusive evidence of a short case.
  • Orion Energy Systems: A Rare Buying Opportunity Below Insider Cost
    OESX Yesterday, 2:51 PM Arthur Frentzel 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Company is continuing to execute on its turnaround effort and long-term goal to lead in the LED retrofit space.
    • Revenue/earnings misses and a secondary offering have moved the shares sharply lower to offer an excellent buying opportunity.
    • Widespread insider buying indicates confidence in the shares by officers and directors, confirming a strong value proposition.
    • Article will attempt to evaluate the current status of the company as well as analyze what could go wrong.
  • Frank's International: A Hidden Gem In The Oilfield-Services Patch Is On Sale
    FI Yesterday, 2:30 PM Sarfaraz A. Khan Comment!

    Summary

    • Frank’s International is one of the biggest players in the global tubular services market.
    • Frank’s International generates three-quarter of its services revenues from offshore projects.
    • Frank’s International will face pricing pressure this year, but it is in a strong position to weather the downturn.
  • Lloyd's Still Aiming To Harness Alternative Reinsurance Capital Trend
    LYG Yesterday, 2:24 PM Steve Evans 2 Comments
  • Attunity: Time Is On Our Side (Part II)
    ATTU Yesterday, 2:16 PM Edward Schneider, CFA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Leader in Big Data transport niche.
    • Revenues grew 41% in 2014, even stronger top and bottom-line growth in 2015.
    • 5x return is feasible in three years.
  • Can Lower Airfares Help Virgin America Soar?
    VA Yesterday, 2:03 PM Feria Investor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Lower oil prices but stagnantly higher fares are creating buzz around oligopolistic features of the airline industry.
    • Lower fares, like those employed in Dallas Love Field, could help competitors like Virgin.
    • Wait and see how the strategy may help Virgin before taking a sizeable position in the stock, unless momentum changes for the better.
  • FCB Financial: Still Running Hard, Still Buyable
    FCB Yesterday, 1:54 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • FCB Financial continues to be an excellent performer for me.
    • Despite having a considerable amount of risk within its model, FCB has been posting blowout quarters, and now has the backing of the analyst community.
    • I believe that FCB can continue its meteoric share price rise as long as interest rates remain on the lows.
    • FCB is a calculated bet for sure, but one I'm willing to continue to own. Actively manage this name, but consider it for a position.
  • Reported Apple Chip Deal Could Give Upside To Taiwan Semiconductor
    TSM Yesterday, 1:42 PM Brian Wu Comment!

    Summary

    • Cowen analysts have issued a note saying that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company will supply the bulk of Apple’s 16nm nodes in 2015 for iPhone 7.
    • This should ease investor worries about earlier reports that Samsung was to become the main supplier of the chips.
    • This should give additional upside to TSM shares.
  • Yandex: Poised To Benefit If Google Leaves
    YNDX Yesterday, 1:16 PM The Panoramic View 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West have depressed Yandex's stock.
    • If geopolitical tensions improve, the sanctions will be lifted, Russia's economy will improve, and Yandex's stock will rise.
    • If geopolitical tensions worsen, Google could leave Russia, and Yandex's stock will likely rise.
  • What Will Iamgold Do With Its War Chest Of Cash?
    IAG Yesterday, 12:55 PM SomaBull 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Iamgold announced this week it was selling its Diavik royalty for $52.5 million in cash. This comes on the heels of their $500 million sale of Niobec.
    • Cash and gold bullion now total $874 million, and with debt at $641 million this puts Iamgold on solid footing.
    • Iamgold needs to make a decision on how it wants to spend this cash infusion, I would prefer the company look externally for acquisitions.
    • This amount of money can really transform the company overnight, something that Iamgold desperately needs as production declines and elevated cash cost are in their future.
  • China Life's Market Share Continues To Decline
    LFC Yesterday, 12:55 PM Junius Comment!

    Summary

    • Market share declined from 30% in 2013 to 26% in 2014.
    • China Life's structural strategy accelerated the recent decline in market share.
    • The stock currently trades at a premium to its peers, with a P/EV ratio of 2.16.
  • Kornit IPO Signals Modernization Of The Textile Industry
    KRNT Yesterday, 12:51 PM APBK Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Kornit is a leader in leading the digital revolution in textile printing.
    • Promising growth and a strong business position are favorable investment factors.
    • Based on historic performance and projections, the IPO valuation appears a bit lofty.
  • Is Lake Shore Gold A Buy Following Q4 Results?
    LSG Yesterday, 12:44 PM Hard Asset Investments Comment!

    Summary

    • Lake Shore Gold just reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2014 results.
    • The company continues to impress as it reported all-in sustaining costs of $915 per ounce and repaid $23.7 million in debt during the quarter.
    • The future is bright for Lake Shore Gold and I recommend shares for long-term gold bulls.
  • Immersion Post-HTC Settlement: Why No Increased Guidance?
    IMMR Yesterday, 12:41 PM Paolo Gorgo 2 Comments

    Summary

    • On Monday, Immersion Corporation announced a settlement and license agreement with HTC Corporation that avoided the start of the court case due to begin the same day.
    • HTC will pay an undisclosed amount of compensation for prior shipments and an additional undisclosed amount of compensation for a license to continue to sell devices with Basic Haptics.
    • Investors expected Immersion to take the opportunity given by this settlement to announce increased 2015 guidance - management had clearly indicated that existing guidance didn’t include any revenue from HTC.
    • Because of this lack of increased guidance, the market may be now overreacting negatively and assume that the settlement was relatively poor for Immersion.
    • We believe there are accounting reasons that kept IMMR management from increasing guidance and that investors may get a better understanding of the new deal after Q1 results.
  • Lowe's: Growth Without Foreign Currency Headwinds
    LOW Yesterday, 12:38 PM Brent A. Miller Comment!

    Summary

    • US home improvement market is expected to rebound in 2015 along with the US economy.
    • The company is committed to investing in new stores, reducing unnecessary costs to improve margins, and returning excess cash to shareholders.
    • The company's operations are largely domestic with over 95% of stores in the United States, making it a strong dollar hedge.