Seeking Alpha
  • Rubicon Minerals Sell-Off A Buying Opportunity
    RBY Today, 12:02 AM Christopher De Sousa Comment!

    Summary

    • Rubicon's development of the Phoenix gold project is more than two-thirds complete.
    • Rubicon expects commercial gold production in Q3 2015, followed by full-scale gold production in 2016.
    • Our revised NAV values Rubicon at $1.70/share or 90% upside potential from the current market price.
  • Richardson Electronics: The Dividend Paying Net-Net
    RELL Yesterday, 10:27 PM Eratosthenes Comment!

    Summary

    • Richardson Electronics trades for less than its conservatively calculated liquidation value.
    • Richardson Electronics is cash flow positive for the trailing 12 months.
    • Catalysts include: A microwave deal with the Chinese government potentially worth $100 million in sales (FY 14 sales were 138 million) over four years.
    • Management's interests are aligned as they have a substantial equity position in the company, they have shown this by opportunistically repurchasing shares.
    • Investors are paid to wait as the company pays a reasonable dividend.
  • Increased Austerity And Long-Term Planning Could Make Juniper A Great Value Play
    JNPR Yesterday, 9:33 PM Young Investors 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Juniper’s increasing its focus on expanding cost reductions and improving cost allocations.
    • Renewed dedication to capital returns will help maintain value for shareholders.
    • Core strategies are long-term bets to capitalize on the constantly evolving networking industry.
    • New products and strategies create an opportunity to gain share from competitors.
    • Uncertain industry future and external pressures may weigh on Juniper’s growth strategies.
  • Google Is Undervalued And Unloved And Positioned For Success In The Future: Part 1
    GOOG, GOOGL Yesterday, 9:19 PM SD Davis 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Google's Search Business has more tailwinds going forward and is intact for future growth.
    • Google's shares are undervalued based on the company's earnings line and historical valuation and have underperformed the S&P 500 in 2014 by a wide margin.
    • While Mobile Search is a temporary headwind due to qualitative issues and lower margins, Google has a dominant position in this fast growing space.
  • LendingClub: Overvalued And Not Disruptive
    LC Yesterday, 8:58 PM Sean deLone 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors in LendingClub’s products and stock face huge risks.
    • Despite the hype, LendingClub’s business model is not disruptive or unique.
    • LendingClub cannot produce the origination volumes to deserve their $9 billion dollar valuation.
  • September 2014: The Month SolarCity Residential Rooftop Solar Beat The US Grid Everywhere
    SCTY Yesterday, 8:28 PM GreenTECH Analysis 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Grid parity calculations need to be reexamined in light of recent reductions in total cost per Watt for residential rooftop solar PV installations.
    • SolarCity claims of $2.90/W including installation and SG&A and the current 30% federal tax subsidy represent a critical confluence of parameters.
    • The investment community may be underestimating the significance of SolarCity's current cost for the industry.
  • GT Advanced Technologies: External Forecasts Suggest Restored Shareholder Value
    GTATQ Yesterday, 6:34 PM Anthony Cataldo 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The modified Apple deal, effectively, eliminates a negative working capital position for GT Advanced.
    • While GT Advanced remains a risky investment, this deal preserves their status as a “going concern."
    • The deal provides a lifeline and, perhaps, three years to rebuild and restore other sources of revenue.
    • As of mid-December, shareholder equity and book value probably approximates zero.
    • Any positive news is likely to result in an increase in the trading price for GT Advanced, and favorable execution and momentum will cause price per share increases to "stick."
  • Top Stock Picks For 2015
    IBM Yesterday, 6:30 PM Matthew South 14 Comments

    Summary

    • 2014 is coming to an end and it is time to pick some winners for 2015. I offer my top two picks.
    • IBM is my favorite mega-cap stock poised for a turnaround in 2015 based on improved cloud offerings, recent partnerships with other tech giants, and exciting new technologies such as Watson.
    • ERII is my favorite small cap stock for 2015 because of the potential to gain market share with new products that have no competition and provide compelling value to customers.
  • Gencor Industries: Taking A View On Federal Transportation Bill With Limited Downside
    GENC Yesterday, 6:21 PM Exorior 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Strong balance sheet with share price currently trading at the same level as cash and marketable securities.
    • Income generated by the marketable securities, if in line with previous years, provides a cushion of approximately $4m.
    • Although revenues are down 18.2% between 2013 and 2014, the Company has managed to partially compensate some of that weakness by reducing production costs by 15.1% during that period.
    • The decrease or increase in Federal Funding in the US has a direct impact on the profitability of the company.
  • HII Technologies: Margin Expansion And A Look At Pro Forma Operations With Recent Acquisition
    HIIT Yesterday, 6:08 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • HIIT shares have been hurt with lower natural gas pricing but operations have actually made sequential improvements since 1H reporting.
    • HIIT showed margin improvements as a stand-alone company and reported very encouraging Pro Forma results inclusive of its recent acquisition.
    • HIIT shares should be just fine longer term as the company has made operational progress that will be noticed when natural gas pricing improves.
  • Update: Maya's Ramp-Up Is Still Going According To Plan
    MYAGF Yesterday, 5:38 PM The Investment Doctor Comment!

    Summary

    • Maya Gold and Silver announces another monthly record production at the Zgounder mine.
    • This is expected during a ramp-up process, but seeing there were only 24 operating days, the performance is really good.
    • The investment thesis remains standing for now, but a $20 silver price would do miracles for Maya.
  • Infinera Has Huge Prospects In Metro Markets
    INFN Yesterday, 4:22 PM BB Research Comment!

    Summary

    • Infinera just started shipping Cloud Xpress, its solution for the metro cloud market.
    • We believe Cloud Xpress will see strong demand almost immediately.
    • The company will launch a product for the metro aggregation market next year.
    • We'd recommend buying the stock at the current price.
  • I Am Reducing Facebook To Just 3% Of My 2015 Portfolio
    FB Yesterday, 4:19 PM Alcaraz Research 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Small investors should try reducing their bets on momentum stocks like Facebook.
    • Facebook has not shown real evidence it will imitate LinkedIn’s China strategy.
    • Facebook's great 2014 momentum run cannot sustain itself for long without China.
  • Is The Habit The Next Chipotle?
    HABT Yesterday, 4:09 PM Doyle Publishing Ltd. 2 Comments

    Summary

    • To give investors a more balanced view, we wanted to weigh in with a bearish perspective on HABT.
    • Customers love HABT's burgers. Yet, HABT didn't catch our attention because of its great burgers.
    • HABT looks more expensive and less profitable than its competitors on many metrics.
    • Throughout its history, CMG has consistently offered investors a healthy, positive ROE and ROA above 7.5% and 6%, respectively, at a much cheaper multiple.
    • Sorry, HABT investors: we think HABT is no CMG.
  • Rite Aid And Its Debt
    RAD Yesterday, 4:07 PM Eric Novinson 9 Comments

    Summary

    • While Rite Aid is recovering, some investors remain worried about its debt.
    • Rite Aid refinanced loans in the third quarter and this negatively impacted earnings.
    • Further refinancing could hurt short-term results, but strengthen the long term.
  • American Apparel Bid Reported In The $1.3-$1.4 Range
    APP Yesterday, 3:59 PM Bram de Haas 2 Comments

    Summary

    • One of the bidders for American Apparel is a PE firm that would like to bring back founder Dov Charney, according to the New York Post.
    • Sources indicate the board has an offer in the $1.30-$1.40 range.
    • Previously, I wrote a corporate event could unlock a lot of the value that lies in American Apparel as well, but is it enough?
  • Starbucks: Will The Big Bets Pay Off In FY2015?
    SBUX Yesterday, 3:53 PM Howard Penney 2 Comments

    Summary

    • I remain Bearish on SBUX.
    • The company is making a big bet on food and it is not without risks.
    • The following are my notes from the analyst meeting in Seattle.
  • Is Unilever Bidding 'A Farewell To Food'? And Are You Bidding On Unilever?
    UL, UN Yesterday, 3:41 PM Kersasp Shekhdar 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Unilever keeps making news with its divestments and acquisitions as it shuffles and re-shuffles its portfolio. What exactly is the company up to?
    • The consumer goods giant is trying to re-balance its two sub-sectors while also trying to re-align a sub-sector to evolving consumer preferences.
    • This is a tricky business and though the company is at present going through a rough patch, payoffs and profits are around the corner.
    • For a multitude of reasons, decentralized 'glocal' Unilever is poised to beat out competitors in high-growth emerging markets and BRICs.
    • While investors should be alert for one of three red flags, on various fundamentals and ratios undervalued UL/UN stock is a Value-Income double play.
  • Bloomin' Brands Showcases Growth: 6 Key Items From Investor Presentation
    BLMN Yesterday, 2:50 PM Chris Katje 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bloomin Brands trades at discount to rivals in price to sales and price to earnings metrics.
    • Initiation of dividend and share buyback show commitment to shareholders.
    • Plans of domestic and international expansion are promising and offer bright future.
  • Microsoft: Additional Catalysts For Windows Phone Franchise
    MSFT Yesterday, 1:49 PM Lester Goh 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Recently, I published a Seeking Alpha article detailing the growth potential of Microsoft’s Windows Phone segment.
    • Since then, additional catalysts have surfaced.
    • Microsoft has enabled carrier billing, the first global smartphone platform to do so.
    • The tech giant also made a small-scale acquisition of Acompli, a provider of innovative mobile email apps.
    • These further developments act as additional tailwinds for the Windows Phone franchise.
  • EVs As A Status Symbol, And A Possible Tesla Advantage
    TSLA Yesterday, 1:13 PM Paulo Santos 185 Comments

    Summary

    • I've already written on how Tesla being an early leader in a supposedly high-growth market (EVs) is no guarantee of victory.
    • Lack of barriers to entry in the EV marketplace, together with no sustainable advantages for Tesla support this claim.
    • In this article, I explore the opposite - whether there might be one thing where Tesla really might have an advantage over other automakers.
  • Gilead: What's Ahead In 2015 For This Biotech Juggernaut
    GILD Yesterday, 12:51 PM Bret Jensen 66 Comments

    Summary

    • Biotech juggernaut Gilead Sciences has provided its shareholders with better than a 30% gain in 2014 so far as we head into the end of the year.
    • Although the stock has spent the last three months consolidating those gains in a relatively narrow trading range, the direction for 2015 remains up.
    • Gilead has several major positive catalysts on the horizon in 2015. Why I believe the stock will head much higher in the twelve months ahead is detailed below.
  • Economic Worries Weigh On FEMSA
    Editors' Pick FMX Yesterday, 12:21 PM Stephen Simpson, CFA Comment!

    Summary

    • Weak consumer traffic has kept a lid on enthusiasm for FEMSA's OXXO convenience stores, while ongoing worries about Argentina and Venezuela weigh on Coca-Cola FEMSA.
    • FEMSA continues to manage for long-term growth, including adding more services to OXXO stores, expanding the OXXO store footprint, and bulking up new ventures like its pharmacy operations.
    • FEMSA shares look undervalued below $100, but management needs to deliver better traffic numbers from OXXO to get Wall Street's enthusiasm going again.
  • Verizon: The Only Way I Would Buy Its Stock
    VZ Yesterday, 11:25 AM Brian Nichols 11 Comments

    Summary

    • VZ faces lower margins, higher wireless disconnects and the daunting task of paying off $110 billion in debt, paying dividends and making capital investments.
    • The only way to alleviate these issues is with higher margins.
    • A REIT could drive profits higher and create shareholder confidence in the process.
  • Fannie Mae - '4 Documents, Produced In Discovery'
    FNMA Yesterday, 11:14 AM Glen Bradford 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Documents produced in discovery by the Defendant are now being used by the Plaintiff against the defendant. This suggests that discovery is unearthing valuable documents for the Plaintiff.
    • If 100% of the profits of Fannie and Freddie continue go to the US Treasury in perpetuity, bankruptcies and receiverships can be less lucrative for creditors than conservatorships.
    • Although the Iowa case isn't looking good and Judge Royce Lamberth set a precedent, the end-game and over half of my portfolio is to be long Fannie and Freddie.
    • The government's proposed defense is more logical and understandable than the Plaintiff and this perpetuates an untenable situation, namely conservatorship.
  • Seadrill Continues To Suffer From Rosneft Overhang
    SDRL Yesterday, 11:14 AM Anthony Ruben 6 Comments

    Summary

    • SDRL appears to have been overly penalized for the Rosneft transaction.
    • Earnings impact of "Rosneft" rigs being idled has likely been applied to earnings estimates.
    • Even considering SDRL's high debt and dividend suspension, the stock trades at a huge multiple discount relative to the peer group.
  • BlackBerry Ekes Out A Profit Despite Sales Tanking
    Editors' Pick BBRY Yesterday, 10:40 AM Michael Blair 37 Comments

    Summary

    • BlackBerry revenues fell sharply.
    • Passport sales recognized less than the 200,000 initial orders.
    • Classic demand higher than Passport according to CEO Chen.
    • Service access fees falling 13% quarter over quarter but software is growing.
    • In the result, Q4 should show a profit with the real test in fiscal 2016.
  • IPO Lockup Period Expiration: Michaels Companies
    MIK Yesterday, 10:32 AM Don Dion 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The 180-day lockup period for MIK ends on December 24; at this point, major pre-IPO insiders will be able to sell their outstanding ~175 million shares on the open market.
    • If some or all of these individuals and firms decide to sell, it could significantly depress MIK's stock price.
    • Along with research from NYU, Harvard, and Duke Universities, our firm found the greatest decreases of (-5.5%) within the Day (-11, +9) window, surrounding the lockup expiration event (Day 0).
    • Given MIK's solid early market performance, insiders could be ready to take initial profits; we suggest shareholders sell or short MIK ahead of the event for full gains.
  • More Growth To Come For Teekay Tankers
    TNK Yesterday, 10:25 AM Economics Fanatic 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Teekay Tankers announced the acquisition of five Aframax tankers and this will add to the company's cash flow growth in 2015.
    • Teekay Tankers has also announced a public offering of 20,000,000 shares to partially fund the current acquisition and potential further acquisitions.
    • The minor correction in the stock due to equity dilution news is a buying opportunity as spot market rates are likely to remain healthy through 2015.
  • NRG Yield - Well Hedged Yield Co With Great Growth Prospects Going Into 2015
    NYLD Yesterday, 10:20 AM EST Invest 1 Comment

    Summary

    • NRG Yield is well hedged between renewable and conventional assets.
    • Coal fired plants is being phased out - conventional gas and renewables will pick up the slack.
    • NRG Yield´s total power capacity will increase 25% in 2015.
  • Lack Of Private Cloud Could Slow Red Hat
    RHT Yesterday, 10:02 AM Dana Blankenhorn 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Red Hat surprised analysts with earnings this week and the stock has taken off.
    • Red Hat has made Linux a mainstream server operating system.
    • Red Hat has invested heavily in private cloud, which has yet to take off.
  • Winnebago Industries - Appeal Increases For This Motorhome Builder
    WGO Yesterday, 10:01 AM The Value Investor Comment!

    Summary

    • Winnebago Industries reports soft first quarter results due to tight labor markets and operational struggles.
    • Yet the order intake and registration numbers start to improve, which should provide stability and comfort to investors.
    • After a poor performance in 2014, shares start to offer real appeal at these levels.
  • Oracle Has Become An Application Software Company
    ORCL Yesterday, 9:55 AM Dana Blankenhorn 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Oracle brings $1 in every $4 of revenue to the bottom line, consistently.
    • It exhibits exquisite control of enterprise customers in what it calls "Oracle Cloud".
    • It's not really a cloud, but enterprises aren't buying private clouds anyway.
  • FedEx: Margin Expansion Will Deliver EPS Growth
    FDX Yesterday, 9:54 AM Economics Fanatic 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Even with the global economy slowing down, FedEx has reaffirmed the EPS guidance for FY15.
    • Lower fuel cost is one of the important margin expansion factors in the coming quarters.
    • Fleet renewal in 2015 and 2016 will also contribute to long-term margin expansion.
    • FedEx looks attractive from a forward PE perspective and the company's focus on high margin and high ROIC ground business will deliver value for shareholders.
  • Xplore Technologies: A Record Quarter Ahead And Why It Can Dominate The Rugged Tablet Market Long-Term
    Editors' Pick XPLR Yesterday, 9:53 AM Benjamin Schnoegl 1 Comment

    Summary

    • XPLR operates in the rugged tablet PC market and is well positioned for sustainable and profitable future growth.
    • Considering the latest information provided by XPLR, a record quarter in company history in terms of revenue lies ahead, which provides an opportunity to establish a long position.
    • XPLR offers a 23% upside in the next 6 months and great potential in the long term.
  • Despite A Reminder Of The Risks, Senomyx Still Has Appealing Potential
    SNMX Yesterday, 9:34 AM Stephen Simpson, CFA 4 Comments

    Summary

    • PepsiCo's delay of its commercial launch of products containing Senomyx's sweetness modifier is a reminder of the challenges of transitioning from a research company to a revenue-producing company.
    • Senomyx's self-directed commercialization efforts have gotten off to a slow start, but it can take years for new products to hit the shelves.
    • 2015 will be an important year for Senomyx, as a strong Pepsi launch is vital to the prospects of the stock.
  • Guyana Goldfields: Valuation Of Two Mining Models
    Editors' Pick GUYFF Yesterday, 9:29 AM Christopher De Sousa 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Guyana Goldfields is advancing its high-grade, low-cost Aurora gold project in Guyana, South America.
    • The open-pit with underground mining model presents 77% potential upside from the current market price.
    • The open-pit only model presents 42% potential downside from the current market price.
  • Zoetis: Betting The Proverbial Farm?
    ZTS Yesterday, 8:15 AM Marshall Hargrave 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Pershing Square has gotten aggressive in the pharma space of late.
    • Its latest foray is in animal health and a buyout might be in the works.
    • But even without a buyout this "scarce" asset might be worth owning.
  • Update: Gold Resource Leases Second Nevada Property
    GORO Yesterday, 8:04 AM Hard Asset Investments 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold Resource Corp. has announced a lease agreement with an option to buy the Goose gold property in Nevada, held by Nevada Eagle LLC.
    • The property adjoins the company's previously leased Radar property, optioned from Altan Nevada Minerals Limited. Both properties hold big exploration upside.
    • I think shares of Gold Resource Corp. are attractive here, and I'm a buyer.
  • Aberdeen Is Cheap, With A Catalyst
    AABVF Yesterday, 6:45 AM Saj Karsan 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Aberdeen International is cheap for a good reason, as management has destroyed capital over a number of years.
    • Activist investors intent on improving shareholder value have now gotten involved.
    • The stock could rise 50% if new directors are voted in at the special meeting.
  • Select Harvests Is An Opportunity To Profit From Almond Prices
    SHVTF Yesterday, 6:45 AM Timberwolf Equity Research Comment!

    Summary

    • Select Harvests is Australian almond grower that also runs a consumer foods business.
    • Almond prices have seen upward trends on strong demand and prolonged California droughts.
    • The company has shifted towards a vertically integrated business model in the past years.
    • P/E and dividend make the company look relatively cheap.
    • Select Harvests seems like a good way to take a long position in almonds, due to its ownership of orchards.
  • Down The Rabbit Hole With NQ Mobile
    NQ Yesterday, 6:30 AM Keubiko 42 Comments

    Summary

    • NQ Mobile announced the sale of subsidiary FL Mobile.
    • The transaction value appears very high at roughly $600 million.
    • The real value appears to be a tiny fraction of the headline value and raises some troubling question.
  • Conrad Industries: Neglected Stock With 60% Upside And Limited Downside
    Editors' Pick CNRD Yesterday, 6:15 AM Basecamp Value 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Conrad, a high cash flow generating low capex business will benefit from accelerating freight volumes, buoyant drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico and aging of existing barges and tugboats.
    • The company is run by an extremely competent management team as shown by robust operating performance and impressive 20-year growth track record.
    • The current stock price supports a large margin of safety where we believe Conrad is neglected stock that trades 62 cents on the dollar.
  • Bellatrix - Orange Capital's 14.3% Stake A Positive Catalyst
    BXE Yesterday, 6:15 AM Michael Fitzsimmons 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Orange Capital has taken a 14.3% stake in Bellatrix and now controls two seats on the Board of Directors.
    • This year, Bellatrix's excellent production growth has been muted by a 60% increase in common shares outstanding.
    • Add in lower commodity prices, and BXE's stock has been slaughtered, but now represents excellent value.
    • Expect a 15% short-term pop in shares and a mid-term gain of 66%. Longer term Orange Capital will expect much more than a double from the current price.
  • Imprivata: Accelerating Losses And Evaporating Margins
    IMPR Yesterday, 6:00 AM Dallas Salazar 2 Comments

    Summary

    • IMPR's losses greatly accelerated into the 9M Y/Y with the quarter's results looking just as bad.
    • IMPR's inability to sell its services and product at anything close to profitability has crushed margins across the board.
    • IMPR has plenty of cash and liquidity to drag its story out for the midterm which makes this a name to consistently keep on a short board.
  • Endeavour Silver Might Have To Shut Down El Cubo
    Editors' Pick EXK Yesterday, 5:00 AM SomaBull 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Endeavour Silver purchased the El Cubo mine with the hope of turning it around as they did with Guanaceví and Bolañitos.
    • El Cubo's AISC are way too high and it's unlikely that Endeavour will be able to reduce costs enough in this silver priced environment to generate free cash flow.
    • El Cubo being shut down is already priced into the stock, and Endeavour will easily survive as Guanaceví and Bolañitos produce roughly 8 million silver equivalent ounces per year.
  • Canadian Pacific Railway - The Recent Pullback Has Created An Opportunity
    CP Yesterday, 4:53 AM Stock Market Sherpa 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Since Hunter Harrison became President and CEO of CP Rail in the summer of 2012, its shares have been on a stunningly impressive run (having gained nearly 150%).
    • While CP Rail still trails its largest competitor (and Mr. Harrison's former employer) CN Rail in numerous areas, Canadian Pacific appears to be making meaningful progress.
    • Due to a projected earnings growth rate of nearly 20% moving forward, the stock has become attractively priced due to the recent correction caused by the collapse of oil prices.
  • Why Costco Remains A Good Long-Term Retail Play
    COST Yesterday, 4:49 AM Joseph Mwangi 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Costco has continued to do well while many of its peers in the retail space continue to struggle.
    • The company has a unique business model that gives it excellent revenue visibility and helps it weather hard times better than many other retailers.
    • Costco's growth outlook five years out is better than that of its peers which makes it a better long-term holding.
  • Rite Aid's Move Higher May Be Just The Beginning
    RAD Yesterday, 4:42 AM Daniel Jones 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Rite Aid soared after the business reported revenue and earnings that topped expectations for the third quarter of its 2013 fiscal year.
    • This, combined with the company's performance in recent years, is evidence that its turnaround is still progressing but that it still has a little ways to go.
    • Moving forward, investors should be optimistic, but should be cognizant of its share price, which isn't terribly expensive but isn't extremely cheap either.
  • Why Rite Aid Will Trade Higher In 2015
    RAD Yesterday, 3:34 AM Brian Nichols 3 Comments

    Summary

    • One chart determines Rite Aid's future trend, which bodes well for long investors.
    • EBITDA and net profit should continue to rise in 2015.
    • While $9 remains my price target, Rite Aid has the potential to climb much higher, maybe even $25 a share. Here's how.