Seeking Alpha
  • eBay's PayPal Spin-Off Points To An Alibaba Takeover
    BABA Today, 7:25 PM Kyle Spencer 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Alibaba is gearing up to make a major move into the Western Hemisphere.
    • Emerging economies such as Russia, Eastern Europe and South America are the easiest for Alibaba to penetrate and are therefore the most likely targets.
    • eBay is the most vulnerable of Alibaba's US-based competitors. This can be viewed as either an ominous or heaven-sent development for shareholders.
    • With the spin-off of Paypal, a merger with Alibaba has the potential to be a win for everyone but Amazon.
  • Benchmarking MobileIron's S-1: How 7 Key SaaS Metrics Stack Up
    MOBL Today, 7:04 PM Tomasz Tunguz Comment!
  • Key Growth Drivers For SanDisk's Embedded Storage Division
    SNDK Today, 6:07 PM Trefis Comment!

    Summary

    • The growth in the number of smartphones and tablets sold worldwide should contribute positively to SanDisk’s embedded storage division.
    • Despite an expected decline in average selling prices for NAND flash per gigabyte in the coming years, the company expects its addressable market to grow at a CAGR of nearly 10% in the next few years.
    • We expect embedded storage to generate over $2 billion in revenues for SanDisk by the end of the decade.
  • Nike Continues To Outperform Competitors
    NKE Today, 5:42 PM Pim Keulen Comment!

    Summary

    • Nike delivered strong Q1 2015 results this week.
    • The company's full-year guidance was strong as well.
    • Nike continues to outperform Adidas, especially in Europe.
    • Nike continues to have a more attractive valuation than Under Armour.
    • Overall, Nike is the number one sports apparel stock.
  • Samsung: Tizen Phones Are Coming Soon
    SSNLF Today, 5:41 PM Alcaraz Research 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Samsung’s first budget Tizen phone may launch in India the last quarter of 2014.
    • Google’s alleged mandatory order to OEMs to pre-install 20 Google apps on Android phones is strong incentive for Samsung to redouble its Tizen OS efforts.
    • Samsung did right in choosing India for its first Tizen phone. Samsung is still the No.1 smartphone brand in India.
  • Is AuRico Gold Finally On Stable Ground?
    AUQ Today, 5:17 PM SomaBull 2 Comments

    Summary

    • AuRico Gold had a history of missing production targets and disappointing shareholders, but now the company has completely transformed.
    • Young-Davidson is AuRico's cornerstone asset and the mine will be a tremendous cash flow generator.
    • El Chanate and Kemess North are two quality assets in the portfolio as well, and Kemess North has a lot a value that isn't being recognized in the share price.
    • AuRico should be a core holding for gold investors.
  • Universal Electronics: 70% Upside Driven By Growth In Connected Home
    UEIC Today, 5:03 PM Long Short Comment!

    Summary

    • Steady compounder that has grown earnings at double-digits annually for last decade.
    • Enjoying secular growth in global pay TV and in digital convergence of “smart” living room.
    • Experienced management team focused on shareholder returns through buybacks.
    • Significant recent customers wins: Microsoft and Samsung.
  • Recro Pharma: An Overlooked Opportunity With Disproportionate Risk/Reward
    REPH Today, 4:39 PM AvetCap Comment!

    Summary

    • 200%+ upside possible over the next six months.
    • REPH already trading below cash which limits downside.
    • Company only needs to design a good trial for a known compound.
  • Splunk: Price Matters
    SPLK Today, 4:38 PM Stone Fox Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Big data remains a mega-trend with a huge market opportunity for Splunk to explore.
    • Strong FY15 guidance should make true believers like the stock even more.
    • Despite the large drop of nearly 50% from the highs, Splunk still trades at valuation multiples that are high.
  • GulfMark Offshore: Undervalued At 80% Of Tangible Book Value
    Editors' Pick GLF Today, 4:37 PM Martin Vlcek Comment!

    Summary

    • Offshore drilling services companies have been battered by rising dollar and falling oil prices as their customers slash budgets while new vessels are still coming online.
    • GulfMark is very undervalued using several valuation methods, trading at just 80% of tangible book value, a 7.7x forward P/E.
    • My fair value estimate using normalized sales and FCF over a full cycle is ~$43.50 per share, offering a ~32% upside.
    • However, the oil and gas services industry is likely to show more weakness before GulfMark stock finds its absolute bottom.
    • So while investors should start buying now, they should plan to dollar-cost-average and be patient as rebound may take several years.
  • Arc Group Worldwide's Fall: A Warning?
    ARCW Today, 4:29 PM Thomas Pangia Comment!

    Summary

    • ARCW shares are down 30% since August.
    • Earnings report postponed.
    • Selling reported in August.
    • Wait until after earnings to buy in or expand a position.
  • Mellanox Technologies: Is The Stock Setting Up For A Breakout?
    MLNX Today, 4:14 PM Carl Cachia Comment!

    Summary

    • The story at MLNX - businesses involved in and relationships with major companies.
    • Technical and fundamental analysis presented, together with analysis of recent earnings, earnings estimates and revenues going forward.
    • Risks investing in MLNX and the future potential going forward.
  • The Biggest 3 Technology Flops Of 2014
    BBRY, MSFT, AMZN Today, 3:59 PM Kofi Bofah 25 Comments

    Summary

    • The "winner take all" technology industry is notable for both its spectacular growth and spectacular busts.
    • The biggest technology busts of 2014 have been shut out of the expanding mobile market. The dominant Google Android - Apple iOS duopoly has largely controlled the mobile space.
    • Conservative investors may consider avoiding BlackBerry, Microsoft and Amazon shares, as these companies have been unable to pick up solid mobile market share.
  • Synergy Resources: Progress Report Indicates Execution Is Solidly On Track
    SYRG Today, 3:46 PM Richard Zeits Comment!

    Summary

    • New pad tie-ins are on schedule and suggest strong production ramp up in the first quarter of calendar 2015.
    • New well performance data points suggest continued strong performance and high returns.
    • Synergy has scheduled its fiscal Q4 2014 conference call for October 28.
  • Microsoft: Skype Remains Very Popular
    MSFT Today, 3:42 PM Alcaraz Research 8 Comments

    Summary

    • In spite of the rise of other messaging apps like Viber, WeChat and WhatsApp, Skype remains very popular. Ballmer did good in buying Skype in 2011.
    • Windows Phone might be struggling against Android and iOS but mobile device users love Skype.
    • Real-time Speech-to-Speech translation for Skype will make it more popular.
  • Intel: Better Than 9 High Flyers
    INTC Today, 3:14 PM Bruce Burnworth 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Over the last year Intel performed better than the nine high flying stocks: +50%.
    • Intel had the lowest risk relative to reward of the group: by a factor of two.
    • Intel had the highest percent stock price increase, highest dividend yield, lowest PE ratio, lowest volatility.
    • Intel has the brightest future: an estimated 70% plus annual device growth rate with 60% + margins.
    • Intel: Look Inside.
  • Update: Catalyst Pharmaceutical's Positive Phase III Trial
    CPRX Today, 3:06 PM Alexander Maxwell 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The trial results should help to increase investor confidence in FDA approval.
    • Investors should expect significant revenues from orphan drug designation.
    • I reiterate my buy rating, as this was predicted by my article.
  • Is Alibaba's Run Over?
    BABA Today, 3:03 PM Douglas Ehrman 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Alibaba has slumped a bit since the record setting IPO.
    • Analyst views have been mixed and fundamental data weak.
    • Ultimately, the stock has plenty of upside after speculative buyers are out.
  • Post Earnings May Need Fortifying
    POST Today, 3:03 PM Alpha Now at Thomson Reuters 3 Comments

    Summary

    • With the core cereal business in a crunch amid margin pressures and intense competition, Post Holdings Inc. has gone shopping like parents in the breakfast food aisle.
    • Post has acquired six companies in the past 18 months in order to expand its product offerings beyond Raisin Bran and Honey Bunches of Oats.
    • But is this strategy causing indigestion?
  • BlackBerry: Some Hardware Strategy Insights
    BBRY Today, 3:02 PM Dmitry Kovalchuk 42 Comments

    Summary

    • A poor hardware image was responsible for BlackBerry’s demise in first place.
    • John Chen understands the importance of rebuilding that hardware image.
    • BlackBerry’s hardware strategy can be derived from the Q2 FY 2015 earnings call.
    • I interpret BlackBerry’s hardware outlook as positive.
  • Western Digital Corporation May Be An Opportunity For Defensive Investors
    WDC Today, 2:56 PM Benjamin Clark Comment!

    Summary

    • WDC is suitable for both Defensive Investors and Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach.
    • According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is fairly valued at the present time.
    • The market is implying 4.67% earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.
  • Apple Pay: A Semi-Monopoly On The Real Killer App
    AAPL Today, 2:52 PM J. M. Manness 60 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple Pay will likely revolutionize the credit card payment system.
    • It is superior to other digital wallets in terms of usability, security and privacy.
    • Apple Pay will give Apple a semi-monopoly on payments for some time to come.
    • This will give Apple a definitive and valuable differentiator in the smartphone world.
  • What Could Cause The U.S. Retail Sector To Outperform In Q4?
    XRT Today, 2:41 PM Andrew Sachais 1 Comment

    Summary

    • A rising trend in consumer spending is benefiting the retail sector.
    • On top of that, muted inflation pressure is giving consumers more buying power.
    • As consumer optimism grows, sentiment readings are also improving, hopefully translating to higher profits and share prices within the retail sector in coming months.
  • Think Twice Before Betting On The Story At Sears Holdings
    SHLD Today, 2:36 PM George Hanley 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Iconic retailer Sears Holdings' financial performance continues to be plagued by weak sales and margin compression in FY2014, leading to operating losses.
    • The company's poor performance has led to a downward trajectory for its stock price.
    • With an uncertain path to future profitability, Sears Holdings is not a good bet, even at its current discounted price.
  • Could Google Fiber Go Global?
    GOOG Today, 2:31 PM Michael Nielsen 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Many people believe Google Fiber is too small to matter for Google as a whole.
    • But Google Fiber has a high potential for international growth.
    • Expanding Google Fiber around the world could have a huge impact on Google's profitability.
  • AIG Was Broke
    AIG Today, 2:26 PM David Merkel, CFA 9 Comments
  • Update: AusDrill's Very Creative Way To Secure New Long-Term Contracts - But The Company Should Announce These
    AUSDF Today, 2:24 PM The Investment Doctor 2 Comments

    Summary

    • AusDrill is proactively chasing new contracts as it is now investing in the companies it will work for.
    • This is unexpected, and I actually think the company should make these types of agreements public knowledge and announce it independently.
    • The investment thesis doesn’t change. The risk profile of the balance sheet slightly increases, but this is compensated by the fact AusDrill is effectively able to secure new contracts.
  • UPS And FedEx Are Logical Buys In Our Current Economy
    FDX, NKE, UPS Today, 2:23 PM Ryan Jones Comment!

    Summary

    • More consumers are making everyday purchases online or direct to consumer, increasing the need for parcel shipping.
    • Major consumer electronics products such as Apple's iPhone 6 are creating unprecedented demand for products that require shipment around the world.
    • The overall American economy is beginning to fire on all cylinders as employment rates continue returning to normal levels and the financial markets finish resolving the issues leading to recession.
  • Update: Robex Resources Adjusts Its Production Capacity At Nampala
    RSRBF Today, 2:22 PM Ben Kramer-Miller Comment!

    Summary

    • Robex Resources just announced that it is being forced to reduce its intended productive capacity at Nampala from 4,000 tpd. down to 3,500 tpd.
    • I had not anticipated this in my June article.
    • This is ultimately bearish, although presuming this is the extent of the problem and presuming costs come in line with estimates, I still like the stock.
  • Update: BioLife Enters Joint Venture To Market Biologistex
    BLFS Today, 2:16 PM Trevor Lowenthal 1 Comment

    Summary

    • BioLife enters joint venture with SAVSU Technologies to market intelligent, controlled temperature containers for biologics.
    • Considering the significant revenue opportunity for Biologistex, I reiterate my bull thesis on BioLife.
    • It is expected that the joint venture will complement BioLife's rapidly growing core business model, allowing BioLife to target a $5.1 billion market in cold chain packaging and instrumentation services.
    • BioLife will also benefit from over 130 clinical trials embedded with its biopreservation media Cryostor and HypoThermosol.
  • Profiting From The Television Wars: Part I
    CMCSA Today, 2:10 PM Douglas Ehrman Comment!

    Summary

    • The television industry is changing fast.
    • This series looks at various segments.
    • In the traditional player space, Comcast looks to reign supreme.
  • Ford: Groping For A Floor
    F Today, 2:08 PM Bret Jensen 17 Comments

    Summary

    • The shares of Ford have sold off some 10% over the past two days after management announced that profits for 2014 will be lower than originally expected.
    • There are myriad reasons to believe that the stock is near a floor, and patient investors will be rewarded for buying additional shares at this discounted entry level.
    • The shares are cheap, the stock provides a 3% dividend yield and 2015 will bring sunnier skies for this American manufacturing icon.
  • A Few Reasons Marigold Was A Good Play By Silver Standard
    SSRI Today, 2:02 PM Individual Trader 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Company is far more diversified now as they are now dealing with both gold and silver. Also the US is a far safer jurisdiction than Argentina.
    • Argentina has been a big success to date and has slashed total Silver production costs by over 25% since 2011. The company feels they can do the same at Marigold.
    • We are already seeing encouraging signs at Marigold. Guidance figures for both costing and production have been improved since the acquisition took place in April.
  • Crunch Time For UMH
    UMH Today, 1:59 PM Stephen Percoco, CFA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Despite weak industry conditions, UMH has been acquiring new communities to drive profit growth, in many cases by upgrading properties and sales staff to boost occupancy.
    • UMH’s overall occupancy level has improved from 77% at the end of 2011 to 81.7% at mid-year 2014, but gains have been disappointingly slow in the past 18 months.
    • With further improvement in the economy and the opening of four home sales centers by yearend, the pace of profit gains should begin to accelerate.
    • UMH’s core FFO has averaged about $0.60 per share over the past three years, below the $0.72 per share dividend on its common shares.
    • If profit growth accelerates, UMH’s shares have the potential to reach $14-$15. If not and investment property spending requirements remain high, it will have to pare the dividend eventually.
  • Greene County Bancorp: An Inexpensive Unconverted Mutual
    GCBC Today, 1:50 PM Time & Model Comment!

    Summary

    • ROEs 11%+; ROAs near 1%.
    • A hypothetical second step conversion would put the P/B at about 0.92 with an earnings yield of 5.7%.
    • GCBC is a good little bank -- the stock would be attractive if a conversion was sooner at hand.
  • Bank Of America Poised To Beat Revenue Estimates Next Year
    BAC Today, 1:38 PM Josh Arnold 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Bank of America's noninterest income has quietly grown to an enormous proportion of total revenue.
    • The noninterest income base won't go away when rates rise.
    • BAC is poised to beat revenue estimates next year, which I believe don't factor in higher rates.
  • Tonix Is A Buy On Endpoint Circumstances
    TNXP Today, 1:34 PM Joe Springer 66 Comments

    Summary

    • BESTFIT missed its primary endpoint of mean change in pain.
    • BESTFIT did deliver benefits across the board though, including statistical significance in pain by three other measures, including the one used in the most recent approval in FM.
    • BESTFIT also demonstrated excellent safety and side effect data.
  • BlackBerry Has Two Main Growth Catalysts, Enterprise Service 12 And Passport
    BBRY Today, 1:32 PM Alex Cho 19 Comments

    Summary

    • BlackBerry reported solid results, guidance didn't change much from prior quarters, but outlook in specific categories have been extremely robust.
    • BlackBerry Passport had a great launch, and at 200,000 units, hardware is well on its way to becoming an actual growth engine.
    • BlackBerry Enterprise Service 12 will balance device management, functionality and security extremely well. BES 12 works well in a bring-your-own device environment.
    • BlackBerry may have figured out a way to be a software company and consumer electronics company at the same exact time.
  • eBay: The Positives And The Negatives Of The PayPal Spin-Off
    EBAY Today, 1:28 PM AtonRa Partners 6 Comments

    Summary

    • PayPal spin-off: it looks like eBay took seriously the competition threat from the likes of Apple, Facebook and Amazon.
    • We review the pros and cons of the transaction in this article.
    • We put our negative stance on hold.
  • A Few Reasons Why Goldcorp's Drop Looks Like A Buying Opportunity
    GG Today, 1:18 PM Amal Singh 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Goldcorp stock has dropped a lot in the past one month due to various headwinds, but its long-term prospects are still intact.
    • Goldcorp's focus on cost reduction will allow it to improve its earnings performance in the future.
    • Goldcorp has various projects in the pipeline, which should lead to better production going forward.
    • An increase in gold demand from markets such as Asia bodes well for Goldcorp.
  • Corning: Some Warts, But Ultimately A $30 Stock Within 5 Years
    GLW Today, 1:16 PM Tim McAleenan Jr. 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Corning has recently gotten serious about a stock buyback program, taking off 100 million shares, or about 7% of company stock, within the past twelve months.
    • The optical fiber/cable division, which accounts for 10% of Corning's business, has been growing at north of 20% and ought to spike the company's stock price.
    • Corning does come with some warts in terms of past record, as its current profits are still lower than 2007 levels.
  • Update: Endeavour Silver Strikes Again At El Cubo
    EXK Today, 1:07 PM The Investment Doctor 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Endeavour Silver finds good grades in its El Cubo drill program with 8.2 meters of 530 g/t AgEq as best result.
    • This part of the property has seen very little exploration, and it’s great to see the mineralization seems to continue.
    • This doesn’t change my investment thesis, as the value of Endeavour will predominantly be based on the silver price.
  • Transocean: Is The Night Darkest Just Before The Dawn?
    RIG Today, 1:04 PM Dave Dierking, CFA 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Offshore oil drillers are dealing with a challenging economic environment and that is knocking down revenues, earnings and stock prices considerably.
    • Even though we may not be at the bottom, Transocean's stock currently trades at a 30% discount to book value and pays out an 8% dividend.
    • The company is executing an $800 million margin improvement strategy and the Transocean Partners MLP IPO will provide additional capital.
  • Why Flowers Foods Looks Like A Good Bet At Its 52-Week Low
    FLO Today, 12:51 PM Amal Singh Comment!

    Summary

    • Flowers Foods is struggling from short-term issues, but the company's new products and brand reintroductions should help it gain momentum going forward.
    • Flowers is also working on cost-saving initiatives in order to improve its bottom line.
    • Flowers' earnings are expected to grow at an impressive pace going forward, while its valuation is also attractive.
  • Update: BP's Q3 Oil Spill Payout Will Be Tiny
    BP Today, 12:32 PM The Specialist 5 Comments

    Summary

    • With the quarter ending and the public statistics available, we now have official confirmation that BP’s Q3 oil spill payout charge will be small.
    • Although small, I continue to believe the lion’s share of payouts is still forthcoming.
    • The figure is in line with my expectations.
  • Olin Corporation Is Worthy Of Research By Defensive Investors
    OLN Today, 12:25 PM Benjamin Clark Comment!

    Summary

    • OLN is suitable for both Defensive Investors and Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach.
    • According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is fairly valued at the present time.
    • The market is implying 2.58% earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.
  • Will Shares Of Consolidated Communications Decline?
    Editors' Pick CNSL Today, 12:25 PM Investor Protector 1 Comment

    Summary

    • CNSL has elevated debt and declining EBITDA.
    • CNSL faces industry headwinds and intense competition.
    • CNSL has a premium valuation.
    • CNSL exhibits concerning dividend metrics.
  • Update: eBay Spinning Off PayPal
    EBAY Today, 12:25 PM Marshall Hargrave 1 Comment

    Summary

    • eBay has finally decided to spin off its payments business.
    • The potential move has been in the news for months, and we felt it was the most likely near-term catalyst for eBay.
    • Yet, we remain tepid on eBay's longer-term prospects without PayPal.
  • Unifi Posts Impressive Growth For A Textile Manufacturer
    UFI Today, 12:08 PM John Leonard, CFA Comment!

    Summary

    • A shorter fiscal year and weakness in the international segment could not suppress high single-digit EBITDA growth, a 100 bp margin increase and the highest net income in >10 years.
    • The growth of its premier value-added yarns helped gross margins increase to a five year high and should continue to be a major driver going forward.
    • Even the expected stabilization of the international segment in FY15 could act as a powerful catalyst.
    • Six months ago the board approved a $50 million buyback, which followed a completed $50 million buyback; strong EBITDA funds meaningful debt reduction and high payback projects.
    • The float is reduced as almost half of the stock is owned by insiders, a core group of well-known value investors and Home Depot co-founder Kenneth Langone.
  • Seadrill: Perspective From Russia Part 2
    SDRL Today, 11:48 AM Vladimir Zernov 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Draft law on the seizure of foreign assets in Russia discussed.
    • Seadrill's partner Rosneft finds a new hydrocarbon field in the Kara Sea with the help of West Alpha.
    • Rosneft will get support from government to overcome the consequences of sanctions.