Seeking Alpha
  • No Excuses: Falling Gasoline Prices Are Impacting Tesla's Sales
    TSLA Today, 7:19 PM Anton Wahlman 60 Comments

    Summary

    • Falling gasoline prices are unequivocally bad for Tesla sales, right now, all other things equal.
    • Even rich people prefer to justify a $100,000 purchase by saying they’re saving money somewhere in the equation.
    • The direct variable cost per mile of driving electric remains 2.5x cheaper than gasoline at $2.50, but by that argument, 100% of car sales would already have been electric.
    • There is more to the total-factor cost of owning a car than simply the variable cost of fuel, including reliability and flexibility.
    • The good news for Tesla is that if gasoline prices increase, it would be 100% good news: No excuses apply to both directions.
  • Boeing Is 12% Undervalued
    BA Today, 5:19 PM Hannes Sverrisson 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Boeing is 12% undervalued based on current market price of $131.
    • Boeing stock is valued at $147 by using the free cash flow to firm (FCFF) valuation method.
    • Is the positive news about Boeing reflected in the value?
  • Immunomedics: Under-Followed Company With Robust Pipeline And Huge Growth Potential
    IMMU Today, 5:17 PM Bridging the Gap 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Immunomedics has 13 drugs in its pipeline, 9 of which are in Phase II or Phase III trials.
    • Epratuzumab, in Phase III trials, should be accepted by the FDA in early 2015, and should support the continued development of Immunomedics's other drugs through the cash flow it generates.
    • Immunomedics's two ADCs are further along in clinical trials than most other ADCs in development, and can easily capture the growth potential of the ADC market.
    • Y-clivatuzumab tetraxetan has gotten both orphan drug designation and fast track status by the FDA and could be approved for commercial use in a relatively short amount of time.
    • The company's large number of drugs in its pipeline should support growth in the long-term.
  • Scorpio Makes A Move From Bulker To Bunker
    SALT, STNG Today, 5:02 PM Investor RockieK 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Dry bulk shipping rates continue to suffer.
    • Dirty and clean tanker rates have been strong.
    • Scorpio moves to reduce its order book and modify contracts to ship towards wet shipping.
  • Spirit AeroSystems Has A Bright Future Ahead
    SPR Today, 4:16 PM Ross Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Spirit delivered revenue growth of 13% in its latest quarter. Earnings increased by 79%.
    • The company’s success is directly linked to the future performance of Boeing and Airbus.
    • Strong backlog of strategic customers confirms that Spirit’s bottom line will remain healthy over the next five years.
    • The company is undervalued by 12%.
  • The Solar Industry: Upstream Vs. Downstream
    FSLR, SCTY, SPWR Today, 3:25 PM Simple Investment Ideas 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The solar industry can be divided into its upstream manufacturing segment and downstream installation/finance segment.
    • There is a large disparity in gross margins between upstream and downstream companies.
    • Downstream companies enjoy higher barriers of entry in the form of brand and sector complexity.
  • Union Pacific Vs. Kansas City Southern: The Contest Continues
    KSU, UNP Today, 3:16 PM Doyle Publishing Ltd. Comment!

    Summary

    • In our ongoing quest to find the best investment in Class I railroads, we compare Union Pacific with Kansas City Southern.
    • Although Kansas City Southern has some interesting strategic opportunities regarding trade with Mexico, Union Pacific is superior in our view.
    • Our perspective would change if Kansas City Southern fell to about 80 dollars per share or if Union Pacific rose dramatically in price from here.
  • Union Pacific Vs. CSX Corporation
    CSX, UNP Today, 3:02 PM Doyle Publishing Ltd. Comment!

    Summary

    • This time we compare the reigning champion Union Pacific to CSX Corp.
    • UNP is a more expensive railroad than CSX while CSX's return numbers are markedly lower than UNP's.
    • This is the smallest margin "win" yet for UNP, but nevertheless, UNP still remains our champion.
  • DirecTV Launches Over-The-Top Streaming Service For U.S. Hispanic Consumers
    DTV Today, 2:57 PM Trefis Comment!

    Summary

    • DirecTV launches over-the-top video service aimed at U.S. Hispanic consumers.
    • New service will boost DirecTV's revenues.
    • However, given that the service is targeted for a niche market, Yaveo will have a little impact on DirecTV’s stock.
  • Medtronic: Estimated Intrinsic Value Of $88-111
    MDT Today, 2:46 PM Michael Grogan 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Having previously estimated an intrinsic value of $70-88 for Medtronic (MDT), I revise my target upwards to $88-111 due to a strong cash flow position and higher P/E ratio.
    • With a payout ratio of 30% and 36 consecutive years of dividend increases, Medtronic appears highly attractive as an income-yielding stock.
    • With emerging market revenue at 13% of overall sales, coupled with the company's investment in 200 projects expected to yield $30bn, the company has shown great capacity for innovation.
  • Kohl's Is On Sale: 20% Upside
    KSS Today, 2:30 PM Dividends, Growth, & Value 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Kohl’s is trading at a discount to peers and intrinsic free cash flow.
    • Kohl’s is bringing back the name brand labels which will revitalize customers shopping at Kohl’s stores and online.
    • High dividend yield of 2.56% returns value to shareholders via income generation.
  • Comparing America's 3 Largest Specialty Retail Companies
    EBAY, GPC, TSCO Today, 2:28 PM Joseph Cafariello Comment!

    Summary

    • The Specialty Retail industry is expected to outperform the S&P broader market substantially this and next quarters, significantly in 2015, and meaningfully beyond.
    • Mean and high targets for the 3 largest U.S. Specialty Retail companies – eBay, Genuine Parts Company, Tractor Supply Company - range from 10% below to 16% above current prices.
    • Find out which among eBay, Genuine and TSCO offers the best stock performance and investment value.
  • Higher Premium Seating Sales Boost Lear's Performance
    LEA Today, 2:27 PM All Bases Covered Comment!

    Summary

    • During the first nine months of the year 2014, the company reported a 10% increase in sales.
    • The sales for luxury cars all across the globe have started seeing an upward trend.
    • Eagle Ottawa is the world’s largest supplier of automotive leather with annual sales reaching roughly $1 billion.
    • Increased competitiveness in the premium seating market will mean that the company will be able to significantly improve its overall market share in this segment.
    • Investors who have invested in Lear appear to be in a very safe position.
  • Update: Callinan Royalties Announces Early Repayment From Gold Royalties Corp.
    CCNMF Today, 1:33 PM Hard Asset Investments Comment!

    Summary

    • Callinan Royalties has announced early repayment of its convertible debenture from Gold Royalties Corp.
    • This transaction will significantly increase Callinan's treasury to approximately C$32 million in cash; previous terms allowed Callinan to convert the royalty to equity or a royalty interest on Eagle.
    • I did not expect this news in my original article, but it is very positive, as I don't think the Eagle deposit will enter initial production for many years.
  • Update: True Gold Mining Gives Financing And Construction Update
    RVREF Today, 1:06 PM Hard Asset Investments 3 Comments

    Summary

    • True Gold has announced it has withdrawn $20.7 million from its financing agreement with Sandstorm Gold and Franco Nevada.
    • The company said it has $47.4 million in the treasury, with $56 million spent and committed to-date on the Karma project.
    • More importantly, the Karma project remains on schedule and on budget, with 42% of the total initial capital requirements committed.
    • I remain very bullish on True Gold shares.
  • GulfMark Offshore Inc.: Is Lower Offshore Capex Priced In?
    GLF Today, 1:04 PM Jonathan Ang 1 Comment

    Summary

    • This is a strong, cash flow generating company.
    • Capex will likely be much lower in 2015, paving the way for further share buybacks.
    • It has undemanding valuations.
  • Ensco PLC: Cycle-Low Valuations
    ESV Today, 12:48 PM Jonathan Ang 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuations at 2009 levels.
    • One of the strongest balance sheets in the industry.
    • Industry cycle low valuations.
  • Update: Despite A Turnaround, Response Genetics Faces Nasdaq Delisting
    RGDX Today, 11:44 AM Christopher F. Davis 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Response Genetics has just filed a new 8-K current report with the SEC.
    • I have previously documented the strong turnaround for the company, but the stock itself has yet to respond. I did not foresee the company being in this predicament.
    • The company intends to timely request a hearing to appeal the determination.
  • Tesla Roadster Upgrade Is A Very Big Deal
    TSLA Today, 11:38 AM Forward Looking Guru 88 Comments

    Summary

    • A Tesla Motors vehicle with 400 miles of range is a game changer.
    • Tesla Motors is currently the only company capable of producing an electric vehicle with 400 miles of range.
    • Investors should take note of the details of the announcement that will happen later today.
  • Wells Fargo's Oil Exposure Raises Some Concerns
    WFC Today, 11:18 AM Lester Goh 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent oil price shock drove the price of oil from the approximately $110 down to $55/bbl.
    • Many oil & gas companies engage in capital budgeting by assuming the price of oil going forward.
    • Due to the oil price shock, many of the projects these companies embark on are simply not viable anymore.
    • As a result, expectations of default within the O&G industry has increased drastically since June.
    • Wells Fargo has one of the largest exposures to the oil & gas industry, and defaults could adversely affect the company’s results in multiple ways.
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Oracle
    ORCL Today, 11:17 AM Benjamin Clark 1 Comment

    Summary

    • ORCL is suitable for Enterprising Investors, but not Defensive Investors following the ModernGraham approach.
    • According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is undervalued at the present time.
    • The market is implying 5.39% in annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years, which is significantly less than the growth the company has seen in recent years.
  • Setting Up Apple's Amazing 2015
    AAPL Today, 11:14 AM Mark Hibben 49 Comments

    Summary

    • On the strength of iPhone and Apple Watch sales, I expect Apple's revenue and earnings to grow in double digits in fiscal 2015.
    • In 2015, Apple's most important new "product" will be its next-generation custom processors, built using Samsung's 14 nm process.
    • These new processors will blunt the threat posed by Intel, as well as other 64-bit ARM processors.
    • Despite double-digit growth, I don't expect Apple's stock price to rise in 2015 by the roughly 40% it has YTD.
  • Merck's Diabetes Pipeline Candidates Are Sure Bets; Only A Matter Of When
    MRK Today, 10:58 AM Clinically Sound Investor 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Omarigliptin is a worthy successor to blockbuster Januvia and features once-weekly dosing. It is in 9 Phase III trials, and has been recently submitted for approval in Japan.
    • Ertugliflozin is a collaborative effort with Pfizer in 8 Phase IIIs; a different mechanism from Januvia makes them an ideal pair to develop as a combination treatment or single product.
    • MK-1293 is a biosimilar for the blockbuster insulin product Lantus, which is due for U.S. patent expiry in 2015. However, a likelihood of litigation may delay approval by 2 years.
  • Contrarian Play For 2015: Why I Am Dollar Cost Averaging Civeo
    CVEO Today, 10:23 AM Best Minds Capital Comment!

    Summary

    • Small companies in the energy sector are punished disproportionately with the sharp fall of oil prices.
    • Civeo's price fell around 65% in the last 3 months and is now attractively priced.
    • Two major hedge fund investors have a considerable stake in this recent spin off.
  • Entellus Medical Aims For $69 Million IPO
    ENTL Today, 9:13 AM Khurram Aziz Comment!

    Summary

    • Entellus medical, Inc. is a medical device company that has developed a minimally invasive treatment for chronic and recurrent sinusitis patients.
    • Plan to raise $69 million with its IPO - Entellus has gone through several rounds of venture capital raising.
    • Entellus generated about $34 million in revenue in the first 9 months of 2014.
    • CEO Brian Farley headed VNUS Medical Technologies, Inc. when it had its successful IPO in 2004 and 2009.
  • Value Remains At OncoGenex After Borealis-1
    OGXI Today, 9:00 AM Daniel Ward Comment!

    Summary

    • While it is not rational to declare the apatorsen platform validated on a trial not achieving statistical significance, I think that the results in patients with low performance are promising.
    • After dropping 11% the day of the Borealis-1 results, the stock has since climbed 6% in a very bloody biotech tape, illustrating the downside protection of its balance sheet.
    • Given the numerous catalysts and apatorsen's effectiveness in the lower-performance subgroup, I believe that the current depressed valuation and minimal enterprise value present an attractive entry point.
  • I'm Waiting Till The Carnage In Biotech Stocks Subsides To Buy Amgen
    AMGN Today, 7:53 AM Abba's Aces 5 Comments

    Summary

    • There has definitely been a sector rotation out of biotech stocks and into the consumer goods names that pay high dividend yields.
    • Amgen remains fairly valued based on 2015 earnings estimates.
    • The dividend is small but investors received a 29.5% increase to the dividend in the next quarter.
  • America's SUV Sales Boom Vs. Tesla's Negative Growth Rate
    Editors' Pick TSLA Today, 7:00 AM Anton Wahlman 165 Comments

    Summary

    • For the first 11 months of 2014, Tesla's US unit sales are estimated to be down 15%.
    • As a comparison, I provide 27 examples of SUVs with strong or extremely strong US unit sales increases for the same period.
    • Almost all of these 27 SUVs also sell more cars per year in the US, compared to Tesla.
    • Given the discrepancy in the growth rates, something doesn't add up here: Either Tesla is wildly overvalued or the other automakers are extremely undervalued.
    • The other automakers could spin off these SUV model lines at valuations exceeding Tesla in most instances.
  • Update: Gold Royalties Corp. Sells Its Eagle/Lynx Royalty For $7 Million To Franco-Nevada, Pays Off Debt
    GRYCF Today, 6:39 AM Ben Kramer-Miller Comment!

    Summary

    • Gold Royalties just sold its most valuable asset to Franco Nevada in order to pay off its outstanding debt obligation to Callinan Royalties.
    • The company is also issuing stock to Callinan Royalties.
    • I hadn't anticipated this and I think it has mixed consequences.
    • The stock is incredibly inexpensive at this point in time but it won't generate any interest until the gold price rises.
  • Update: Franco-Nevada Buys The Eagle/Lynx Royalty From Gold Royalties For $7 Million
    FNV Today, 6:25 AM Ben Kramer-Miller 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Franco-Nevada bought a sliding scale NSR royalty on Victoria Gold's Eagle/Lynx Projects from Gold Royalties Corp. for $7 million.
    • I had not anticipated this transaction although it fits the company's business model.
    • This is a royalty that can potentially pay off enormously given the Eagle Project's size but the project will likely not be built at $1,175/oz. gold.
  • Update: Base Resources Makes An Offer For World Titanium Resources
    BSRUF Today, 6:05 AM The Investment Doctor Comment!

    Summary

    • Base Resources announces an offer for an advanced-stage mineral sands developer in Madagascar.
    • This is a surprise as I absolutely didn't expect Base to be a consolidator in this stage of its development.
    • My investment thesis could change rather dramatically if the offer would be accepted by World Titanium Resources.
  • 15 Insane (But True) Reasons The Herbalife Fraud Should Be Shut Down Today
    HLF Today, 6:00 AM Quoth the Raven 99 Comments

    Summary

    • These are 15 reasons that the Herbalife fraud should have already been stopped - if not shut down immediately, placed under injunction until FTC investigation concludes.
    • Herbalife insider caught on video calling the company "an eventual deception" and "inauthentic".
    • First hand primary source evidence points to Herbalife being the largest fraud since Madoff/Enron.
    • Questionable death in Mexico surrounded by 7-8 year old questions about the lead content in Herbalife's product.
    • Herbalife Board Member Pedro Cardoso is wanted for fraud in Brazil. Enough is enough - shut it down.
  • Update: Atlas Iron Will Have To Record A $550-700M Impairment Charge
    ATLGF Today, 5:55 AM The Investment Doctor Comment!

    Summary

    • Atlas Iron will record a $500M+ impairment charge and acquires the remaining 30% in the Mt Webber project.
    • The impairment charge shouldn’t surprise anyone as the iron ore price totally collapsed in 2014.
    • The investment thesis will change considerably as the company is just breaking even and isn’t generating any value right now.
  • Update: Callinan Royalties Receives Early Repayment From Gold Royalties Plus A 9.9% Stake
    CCNMF Today, 5:54 AM Ben Kramer-Miller Comment!

    Summary

    • Callinan Royalties received C$6.9 million in a loan repayment from Gold Royalties plus a 9.9% stake in the company, which just sold its most valuable royalty asset.
    • I hadn't expected this although the proceeds far outweigh the dire situation I priced in in my recent bullish article.
    • In spite of a recent price increase I continue to believe that Callinan is one of the least expensive royalty plays out there.
  • Update: True Gold Mining Announces Karma Construction Update
    RVREF Today, 5:44 AM The Investment Doctor Comment!

    Summary

    • True Gold draws down another $20M from the Franco-Nevada/Sandstorm facility and has committed to 42% of the initial capex.
    • No surprises here, but I’d be more keen on hearing an update on the issue with the locals which caused True Gold to suspend its construction activities.
    • The investment thesis isn’t changed, I’m still very bullish on True Gold and I think the share price could easily double in 2015.
  • Renaissance Capital's 2014 U.S. IPO Annual Review
    BABA, JD, PGRE Today, 4:53 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research 1 Comment
  • Skullcandy: An Impressive Growth Stock
    SKUL Today, 4:10 AM Ross Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Skullcandy delivered revenue growth of 16% in the latest quarter. Earnings grew by 75%.
    • The industry under which the company operates is experiencing hyper growth.
    • Advertising efforts are proving fruitful, and the future changes may bring untapped revenue for the company.
    • The company is making a mark for itself in high-priced headphones category.
    • Skullcandy is undervalued by 17%.
  • Comparing The 2 Largest Processing Systems And Products Companies
    CLGX, PLT Today, 3:51 AM Joseph Cafariello Comment!

    Summary

    • The Processing Systems & Products industry is expected to outperform the S&P broader market significantly this and next quarters, meaningfully in 2015, and significantly beyond.
    • Mean and high targets for the 2 largest Processing Systems & Products companies – CoreLogic Inc. and Plantronics Inc. - range from 2% to 24% above current prices.
    • Find out which among CoreLogic and Plantronics offers the best stock performance and investment value.
  • Update: The U.S. Consumer Is Going To Kill It, And J.C. Penney Will Too
    JCP Today, 3:47 AM Achilles Research 11 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. real GDP growth in the third quarter was reported at 5% recently, highlighting that the U.S. economy has moved from recovery to solid economic upswing.
    • Cyclical companies like retail company J.C. Penney should see the tide rise in 2015 as consumer spending kicks into high gear.
    • I expect J.C. Penney to be a strongly performing retail investment in 2015.
  • Renaissance Capital's 2014 Global IPO Annual Review
    BABA, AAVL, KITE Today, 3:18 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research Comment!
  • Drilling Deep: The Best Values In Oilfield Services
    HAL, NOV, RES Today, 3:18 AM Wall Street Hippie 3 Comments

    Summary

    • With the recent price collapse of crude oil and natural gas, E&P companies are expected to significantly cut back on expenditures.
    • The fear of reduced investment in oil and natural gas production has put significant downward pressure on the oilfield services industry.
    • While a price correction is justified, many oilfield services companies are now trading at very attractive valuations and seem to have been oversold.
  • IBM: Capital Returns To Shareholders Aren't Financial Engineering
    IBM Today, 3:11 AM Stone Fox Capital 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Financial engineering is an overused term when a company does a large-scale stock buyback program.
    • The weak results of IBM are well documented, but the FCF remains strong compared to the market valuation.
    • The recent 15% net payout yield is a strong buy signal.
  • AT&T May Be Ok, But This Stock Is Better
    CHL Today, 3:07 AM Brian Nichols 7 Comments

    Summary

    • I recently noted three key reasons why AT&T is a superior investment to Verizon.
    • Yet AT&T is not the best telecom investment, as the U.S. remains a challenging market for wireless service providers.
    • Instead, China presents better opportunities due to network improvements and the opportunity for significant appreciation in revenue per user.
  • After Tax Cut, ConocoPhillips Expands Alpine Field In Alaska
    COP Today, 2:52 AM Callum Turcan 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Alaska cut oil production taxes in 2013 to try and revive output.
    • ConocoPhillips, the biggest producer in Alaska, has responded to the tax cuts by increasing its investment in the state.
    • New projects in the National Petroleum Reserve, which covers 22.8 million net acres, offer plenty of ways to grow production.
  • In Shipping, Bunkers Beat Bulkers Hands Down
    DHT, FRO, NAP Today, 2:50 AM Investor RockieK 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The tanker segment for the shipping industry is expected to fare better than the dry bulk segment.
    • Brent oil contango makes Global oil traders more likely to store crude in tankers next year.
    • Baltic Dry ends the year at 782, down 21 days straight.
  • Morgan Stanley Seems To Be Pushing Forward Despite Aborting Sale Of Oil Unit To Rosneft
    MS Today, 1:54 AM Stock Gazer Comment!

    Summary

    • The deal between Morgan Stanley and Rosneft met its dead end as US regulators failed to approve the deal over concerns regarding the Ukraine crisis.
    • Sources close to the bank indicate that it is likely to actively participate in the Indian property market in 2015, as it cuts back on low yielding investments.
    • Morgan Stanley was able to secure the $4.7 billion placement deal of Chinese company Peng An, leaving rivals behind and taking the top position in the Asian league tables.
    • The company was able to report earnings of $0.77 per share in Q3 as revenues also grew by a staggering 54% and were reported at $8.7 billion.
    • Stocks for the company seem attractive as they have gained nearly 22% in value year to date. Q4 results seem positive as of now.
  • Virgin America's Low-Cost And Trendy Flights Impress Analysts
    VA Today, 1:37 AM TipRanks 2 Comments
  • Raytheon's Cheap Shares Have More Firepower
    RTN Today, 1:32 AM Hawkinvest 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Defense sector stocks are trending higher.
    • This industry is poised for continued growth, especially with increasing global demand for cyber security and drones.
    • Raytheon appears undervalued and could be poised for additional gains, therefore investors should consider buying, especially on pullbacks.
  • NextEra Energy - Creating Value For Shareholders
    NEE Today, 1:24 AM Alpha Strategist 10 Comments

    Summary

    • NEE is a leading energy producer that owns a great portfolio of energy assets. NextEra Energy is a proactive company that is creating value for its investors and shareholders.
    • NEE has announced that it would merge with Hawaiian Electric Industries to lever its expertise, and financial resources to realize their aim of creating more efficient renewable energy resources.
    • NEE is a good long-term investment that is well positioned to create value for its shareholders.
  • Restoration Hardware Has Been Solid Lately
    RH Today, 12:51 AM Abba's Aces Comment!

    Summary

    • I recently opened and closed a position in the name for about an 11% gain.
    • The management team has managed to increase the financial efficiency ratios between the last quarter and now.
    • The stock appears to be at an inflection point right now and I want to wait before buying into it again.