Seeking Alpha
  • Bullish Algorithmic Forecast For Google Even With Issues With CPC
    GOOG, GOOGL Today, 2:55 AM I Know First Research 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Google’s consumers are gradually increasing their mobile searches on smartphones at the expense of traditional searches.
    • This is a clearly identifiable and solvable problem.
    • While some figures are increasing others are falling which has some investors discontent.
    • The self-learning algorithm is bullish for Google in the 1-month and 3-month time horizon.
  • Steven Madden: Changing My Opinion
    SHOO Today, 12:50 AM Bill Maurer Comment!

    Summary

    • Short position on Steven Madden worked to this point.
    • With shares down more than 7%, time to re-evaluate the name.
    • Buyback might now be ramping up, huge positive for second half of 2014.
    • While growth story has not really changed, the valuation is much improved.
    • Technicals also improved at lower levels.
  • Microsoft Windows Phone Should Gain Momentum Despite Sagging Growth In Smartphone Markets
    MSFT Yesterday, 11:34 PM Michael Blair 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Evidence is mounting that smartphone markets have matured in many countries.
    • Despite the stall of developed markets, India and Africa promise rapid growth for years to come.
    • Microsoft can see the trend and is taking aggressive steps to take advantage.
    • As a result, Windows phone should gain momentum in 2014.
  • SandRidge Energy: March Well Results Show Improvement
    SD Yesterday, 10:43 PM Richard Zeits 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Following weak well results in Oklahoma in January-February, SandRidge posted much stronger wells in March.
    • The average test rate for the Q1 Well Sample in Oklahoma has improved and is now in-line with Q4 2013.
    • The probability of a weak production report for Q1 is nonetheless high due the expected quarter-on-quarter well count decline and high percentage of weaker wells in January-February.
    • However, if such weakness indeed manifests itself, it should not be by perceived as a deterioration in well performance.
  • The Missing LinkedIn
    LNKD Yesterday, 9:09 PM Abba's Aces 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The barriers to entry in this stock are missing.
    • The stock is ridiculously overpriced.
    • The stock may be good for a quick trade, as it is experiencing bullish technicals.
  • Google, Amazon May Join Xiaomi, Micromax In Leading Smartphone Prices To The Basement
    AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL Yesterday, 8:17 PM Michael Blair 31 Comments

    Summary

    • Google is reportedly about to launch a sub-$100 smartphone.
    • Amazon.com is rumored to be launching its own smartphone this fall.
    • Xiaomi and Mediatek are prominent examples of emerging low cost vendors disrupting markets in China and India with high performing, low cost smartphones.
    • Google and Amazon may bring this trend to North America with disruptive effects.
  • Goodrich Petroleum: Cracking The Code Of Tuscaloosa Marine Shale
    Editors' pick GDP Yesterday, 4:53 PM Richard Zeits 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Two successful lower TMS wells in a row validate the management’s assertion that the modified well design is effective.
    • The TMS may quickly emerge as a proven commercial play, with optimized drilling techniques driving further upside.
    • Goodrich's Blades well suggests that the TMS' core may be extensive.
    • An avalanche of new well results is expected over the next three months.
  • Skullcandy Core Brand Strength Is An Illusion
    SKUL Yesterday, 3:26 PM Charles Moscoe 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Astro Gaming is the lone hotspot and its continued growth proves that the core business is dead.
    • Misguided focus on niche women's line that features confusing marketing messages.
    • Turnaround story predicated on technological advances, but none have been realized.
    • Piper Jaffray research shows that the brand is experiencing significant erosion among the vital teen market.
    • Continued decline in digital as evidenced by lower Google search volume and website traffic.
  • Community Bank Shares: This Regional Bank Is Hiding In Plain Sight
    CBIN Yesterday, 3:19 PM Profit Fan 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Far from expensive, Community Bank Shares' future earnings potential is far from being fully priced in.
    • Community Bank Shares offers investors a lot of opportunity for a very fair price.
    • In addition to its offensive portfolio strategy, one big cost cut could significantly improve future earnings.
  • NeuStar Now Looks Cheap - Investors Willing To Take A Risk Should Load Up Now
    Editors' pick NSR Yesterday, 3:08 PM Ashleigh Rogers 4 Comments

    Summary

    • NeuStar's price has fallen enough that a long position in the stock is now worthwhile for investors willing to take some risks.
    • Based on conference call data from management even without the LNPA contract, NSR is worth at least $27 a share.
    • Investors should be prepared for volatility and uncertainty in the stock as the FCC will probably miss the May 6th decision deadline leaving an overhang on the company going forward.
  • Youku Tudou: How A Positive View Turns Sour
    YOKU Yesterday, 3:02 PM James Sands 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Baidu has significantly increased its investments in video-related content which will continue to weigh on Youku Tudou's margins and performance.
    • Youku Tudou is falling behind the curve for digital advertising growth when compared to its peers as of the last quarter.
    • Where would YouTube be without Google - is Youku Tudou destined for a perpetual low-margin business?
  • Verastem: Cancer May Have Met Its Match
    VSTM Yesterday, 2:29 PM The Behavioral Economist 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Exceptional personnel and unrivaled leadership separate Verastem from most small cap biotechnology entities.
    • By targeting cancer stem cells, Verastem could minimize relapse and recurrence, forever changing the treatment of cancer.
    • From current levels, Verastem should be extremely attractive to long term speculative investors.
    • With nearly 70% of shares held by institutions and insiders, Verastem investors are well protected against downside risk.
  • La Quinta - Caution As Private Equity Is Preparing To Sell This Debt-Loaded Company
    LQ Yesterday, 10:15 AM The Value Investor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Blackstone is partially exiting another hotel business.
    • Solid growth driven by asset-light franchise growth focus.
    • Yet suboptimal earnings and leverage limits appeal.
  • Broadcom May Have A Profitable Return
    BRCM Yesterday, 8:33 AM Gemstone Equity Research 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Broadcom’s top-line growth is at a steady pace, but the bottom line is suffering due to higher operating costs. To deal with this Broadcom has initiated a cost saving program.
    • Broadcom has introduced BCM43462, a 5G Wi-Fi 802.11ac system-on-chip to deliver pinpoint indoor positioning technology.
    • Broadcom started dividend payments in 2010 and since then the dividends and payout ratio have improved. The strong financial position will support the dividend growth for the coming quarters.
  • Allison Transmission: 7 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares During The Last 30 Days
    ALSN Yesterday, 7:08 AM Markus Aarnio Comment!

    Summary

    • Seven insiders sold Allison Transmission stock within one month.
    • The stock was not purchased by any insiders in the month of intensive selling.
    • Five of these seven insiders decreased their holdings by more than 10%.
  • After A 50% Decline In Stock Price, Is Varonis A Buy?
    VRNS Yesterday, 7:04 AM Lior Ronen 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Varonis stock price fluctuating sharply since its IPO in February.
    • In the short term Varonis presents a negative bottom line, but is expected to improve in the long term as it continues to invest in R&D and SG&A.
    • Current low price is an appealing entry point to hold Varonis.
  • Emmis Communications: 5 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Month
    EMMS Yesterday, 7:01 AM Markus Aarnio 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Five insiders sold Emmis Communications stock within one month.
    • The stock was not purchased by any insiders in the month of intensive selling.
    • Three of these five insiders decreased their holdings by more than 10%.
  • IBM: A Decent Q1 But Worse-Than-Expected Outlook
    IBM Yesterday, 7:01 AM Bottom Up Investing 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The first quarter was decent when measured in constant currency.
    • The slump in hardware sales could continue through 2014, but the 2015 comps will be easier to beat.
    • The technicals are bullish and the intrinsic value estimate is $180 per share.
  • Acadia Pharmaceuticals: 4 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Month
    ACAD Yesterday, 7:00 AM Markus Aarnio 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Four insiders sold Acadia Pharmaceuticals stock within one month.
    • The stock was not purchased by any insiders in the month of intensive selling.
    • All four of these insiders decreased their holdings by more than 10%.
  • Dow Dogs Are Front Of The Pack
    DIA, T, VZ Yesterday, 6:33 AM David I. Templeton 2 Comments
  • Citigroup Is The Best Bet For Long-Term Investors
    C Yesterday, 3:56 AM Kirk YU 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Citigroup reported solid first quarter results, ending a 3-week slide and shaking off market perception that the bank is losing grounds to competitors.
    • The Fed’s capital plan rejection is a trumped-up charge that has little to do with the bank’s financial health.
    • Citigroup will continue to benefit from a reviving U.S. economy, and sooner or later investors should be able to look at the bank objectively.
  • Google Cloud Is No Real Threat To Microsoft
    MSFT Yesterday, 2:33 AM Kofi Bofah 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Cloud computing is the latest technological revolution.
    • The Google Cloud will not challenge Microsoft Office sales.
    • Microsoft can unlock shareholder value after abandoning hardware projects.
  • Caterpillar: Is This A Breakout Or Will The Stock Fall Back To $85?
    CAT Yesterday, 2:18 AM Jeff Williams 15 Comments

    Summary

    • What is Caterpillar's current value?
    • How does management intend to use their excess cash?
    • What role does the net debt play in a potential breakout?
  • Buy The Recent Correction Of MBIA, A Turnaround In The Works
    MBI Yesterday, 12:45 AM George Kesarios 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent S&P upgrade will permit the company to gradually return to the market and guarantee municipal debt one again.
    • With its stock once at $70 a share, if and when the company returns to the market, is will be totally up on its feet again.
    • The company has surprised analysts for several quartets until now, so the recent 20% decline is probably an opportunity.
  • Tiptree Financial Is Poised To Join The Russell
    TIPT Sat, Apr. 19, 11:50 PM Mark Gomes 1 Comment

    Summary

    • In May, Russell Investments will initiate the annual reshuffling of its Russell 2000 index. This annual event represents a juicy opportunity for investors who can identify the winners (and losers).
    • Our first 2014 pick, Old Line Bancshares (OLBK), has risen 14% while the Russell has fallen by 3.7% over the same timeframe.
    • Tiptree’s market cap leapt from $70M to $300M when it secured major private financing last year. This move appears sufficient to complete TIPT's set of requirements for Russell membership.
  • Aecom Technology: 6 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares During The Last 30 Days
    ACM Sat, Apr. 19, 11:35 PM Markus Aarnio Comment!

    Summary

    • Six insiders sold Aecom Technology stock within one month.
    • The stock was not purchased by any insiders in the month of intensive selling.
    • Two of these six insiders decreased their holdings by more than 10%.
  • Wal-Mart's New Money Transfer Service Is Not A Major Threat To Western Union
    WU, WMT Sat, Apr. 19, 7:34 PM Dividend Herder 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Unlike Western Union, Wal-Mart's new money transfer offering is a national service, not a global one.
    • There are significant barriers to taking Wal-Mart's new service beyond the shores of the United States.
    • Wal-Mart's new service is just the latest in a series of perceived threats to Western Union that are overblown.
  • Three Reasons Aspen Insurance Should Accept The Buyout From Endurance
    AHL Sat, Apr. 19, 2:42 PM Brian Abbott 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Premium to book value is a good exit for current Aspen investors.
    • Few mergers or acquisitions are happening lately in the reinsurance space.
    • Low investment returns and higher price to book across the industry forecast lower returns going forward.
  • SilverCrest Mines: A Wonderful Company At A Fair Price
    SVLC Sat, Apr. 19, 9:30 AM Ben Kramer-Miller 10 Comments

    Summary

    • SilverCrest shares have corrected violently in the past couple months..
    • Nevertheless the company has done a lot to generate long term shareholder value since I last wrote about the company in December..
    • We now have a clearer picture of the future of Santa Elena and the financing of La Joya..
    • The shares are fairly valued, but worth buying considering management's track record of generating shareholder value.
  • Nektar Fortifies Its Position In Advance Of The Rescheduled FDA Panel On OIC
    NKTR Sat, Apr. 19, 9:22 AM Scrying Biotech 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Nektar's big event - the FDA panel on Opioid Induced Constipation, or OIC has been rescheduled for June 11th and 12th.
    • An interim catalyst involving the readout of NKTR-171 Phase 1 data should keep shares solidly between $10 and $14 until naloxegol's future has been better defined.
    • A small capital raise to hedge against the lesser possibility of FDA panel disappointment, and the strengthening of yet another partner's financial position, are positive developments since my last report.
  • Flamel Technologies: Great Buying Opportunity Before Earnings Inflection
    FLML Sat, Apr. 19, 9:17 AM Ronny Hyman 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bloxiverz gaining market share.
    • New PDUFA approval by FDA April 28, 2014.
    • Positive data on Narcolepsy drug.
  • Is There Hidden Value In Keeping Up With Jones Energy?
    JONE Sat, Apr. 19, 9:08 AM Laura Starks Comment!

    Summary

    • Jones Energy's natural gas resources, location, and transportation access to major gas trunklines may not have received full recognition by the market.
    • The Anadarko basin is fully leased; the only entry is by expanding existing production, as Jones is, or through asset/company acquisition.
    • Only 25% of Jones Energy is public. The rest is held by private equity and management. It also has significant debt.
  • American Public Education: Moving To Head Of The Class
    APEI Sat, Apr. 19, 9:04 AM David Waldron Comment!

    Summary

    • APEI stock price is down ~20% YTD following disappointing year-end results and weak near term outlook.
    • But company exhibits best in class returns on equity and capital, cash flow margin, cost controls, and regulatory exposure.
    • And its stock appears compellingly cheap to industry and small cap market, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
  • Citigroup: Buy Before It Gets Expensive
    C Sat, Apr. 19, 8:39 AM Gemstone Equity Research 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Citigroup released its first quarter of 2014 results and reported better year-over-year performance.
    • In contrast to Citigroup, JPMorgan reported a net income of $5.3 billion and EPS of $1.28 for the first quarter of 2014.
    • I would suggest investing in Citigroup because of its attractive multiples and current price dips.
  • ACCO Brands: Value Trap In A Tight Spot
    Editors' pick ACCO Sat, Apr. 19, 8:34 AM Felix Boisse 5 Comments

    Summary

    • ACCO Brands is the world's largest manufacturer and marketer of branded office and school supplies, including staplers, notepads, and binders.
    • On initial screen, ACCO Brands appears cheap with a P/E of 8.9x and P/B of 1.0x.
    • Value-destructive M&A, a weak position within the industry value chain, and declining demand for office supplies due to technological change makes ACCO Brands unattractive.
    • Computed intrinsic value of $4.00 implies the stock is overvalued by 50.2% vs. current price of $6.01.
    • No evidence of compelling catalysts or strategic value to improve profitability.
  • Free Cash Flow And Deleveraging Is The Word At Realogy Holdings
    RLGY Sat, Apr. 19, 8:26 AM Mike Arnold 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Realogy Holdings operates at meaningful scale in the residential brokerage business.
    • The business model includes high-margin, consistent franchise revenue streams from its agent network.
    • Free cash flow is being used to delever the balance sheet, allowing value to accrue to the equity.
  • JGWPT Holdings Will Test Investors' Stomachs But Should Ultimately Be A Good Investment
    JGW Sat, Apr. 19, 8:23 AM Ashleigh Rogers 4 Comments

    Summary

    • JGW is facing several important headwinds which have hurt the stock price recently.
    • In the short term, these issues will hold back the stock, but over the long term it should be fine.
    • Given its size and the headwinds involved in the story, investors should be prepared for a lot of volatility accompanying the out-sized returns.
  • Rock-Tenn Looks Like A Rock Solid Investment
    RKT Sat, Apr. 19, 7:20 AM ValueBull Investor 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Rock-Tenn has been trading sideways as of late, although the use of free cash flows and earnings growth is promising for its future.
    • The comparable ratios of Rock-Tenn with some key competitors show that the stock is 30-45% undervalued.
    • The long-term prospects of the company and the uptrend that the company has over the past 2-3 years make it poised to continue to move higher.
  • CBS Outdoor - Successful IPO Of This CBS Subsidiary
    CBSO Sat, Apr. 19, 2:31 AM The Value Investor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Leader in billboard advertising.
    • Parent company CBS is squeezing out as much cash as possible.
    • Investors are attracted to a generous dividend, yet I have valuation concerns.
  • Surge Energy: 3 Different Insiders Have Purchased Shares This Month
    ZPTAF Sat, Apr. 19, 2:08 AM Markus Aarnio 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Three insiders have purchased Surge Energy stock within one month.
    • The stock was sold by no insiders in the month of intensive purchasing.
    • Two of these three insiders increased their holdings by more than 10%.
  • Schweitzer-Mauduit: Oversold After Acquisition And Q3 Results But Still A Buy
    SWM Fri, Apr. 18, 7:49 PM Bram de Haas 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Restructuring and impairment charges likely to decrease in 2015.
    • The company has strong cash flows and growth initiatives to counter attrition.
    • There is about $7 in excess cash per share on the balance sheet.
    • The market was too bearish on SWM after 3rd quarter 2013 results.
    • The market hated the DelStar acquisition and continued selling off.
  • NIC Inc.: E-Government At Its Best
    EGOV Fri, Apr. 18, 6:13 PM Joseph P. Porter 2 Comments

    Summary

    • NIC is the largest e-Government service provider in the U.S., having served 30 states, local governments, the U.S. Department of Transportation and Federal Election Board.
    • NIC operates with two business units: one providing portal services, the other providing e-government software and service.
    • NIC enables state and local governments to establish internet presence at no cost, collecting revenues from user fees shared with the government entity.
    • Over the past ten years, NIC has averaged approximately 18% revenue growth YOY.
    • Over the course of 2014, 15 state contracts are scheduled to expire, although four do have renewal options.
  • Has First Cash Financial Seen The Turn?
    FCFS Fri, Apr. 18, 4:12 PM Stephen Simpson, CFA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Revenue was a little better than expected in Q1, but margins were a little worse.
    • Multiple indicators suggest that the Mexican economy and retail environment are improving.
    • First Cash's large note offering may indicate a larger strategic deal is in sight.
  • Square 1 Financial And The Evolution Of Finance
    SQBK Fri, Apr. 18, 4:04 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • SQBK is developing momentum in a superbly profitable and hard to enter market.
    • SQBK has found a way to have a near non existent cost of deposits and that's great news for investors.
    • SQBK's multi channel revenue streams and risk management make them a model for future financial services companies.
  • As Palo Alto Networks Disrupts The Market, More Gains Can Come
    PANW Fri, Apr. 18, 2:14 PM Stephen Simpson, CFA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Palo Alto is looking to augment growing share in next-gen firewalls with capabilities in malware and endpoint solutions.
    • The advantages of Palo Alto's technology may be overstated, but have been sufficient to take noticeable share from Cisco and Check Point.
    • Expectations for the company are hardly low, but there is upside to the share price if the company can become a strong #2/#3 player in the market.
  • The General Electric Evolution Continues
    GE Fri, Apr. 18, 12:20 PM John M. Mason 13 Comments

    Summary

    • General Electric posts strong quarter for its industrial businesses.
    • GE announced in March it was spinning off the consumer finance business later this year.
    • Talk has surfaced about keeping the CEO tenure for the company well below 20 years.
  • Advanced Micro Devices Set To Grow
    AMD Fri, Apr. 18, 12:07 PM IAEResearch 23 Comments

    Summary

    • The financial position of the company is good, which should support the turnaround efforts over the next few months.
    • The focus on high-growth areas will support future revenue growth for the company.
    • A change in the revenue mix with the focus on high-margin areas will result in improved margins over the next few quarters.
  • Stabilizing PC Market And Potential In Mobile Make Intel A Strong Buy
    INTC Fri, Apr. 18, 11:01 AM Aurium Investments 17 Comments

    Summary

    • PCs remain the cornerstone of Intel's profitability, and the market appears to be stabilizing.
    • Intel's investments in mobile, coupled with Microsoft's pricing changes on tablets and phones, should drive traction.
    • Improvements in mobile profitability will drive significant share price upside.
    • Data center and IoT will be the engines of revenue growth.
  • The 'New' Perion - What Does The Future Hold For It?
    PERI Fri, Apr. 18, 10:54 AM Top Alpha 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Perion's revenue comes from cooperation with different search engines – mainly Google, Yahoo and Bing.
    • In the last couple of years, the company went on a spree of acquisitions, growing its revenue 16-fold from $29.5 million in 2010 to projected $465 million in 2014.
    • Perion plans to raise debt in order to finance additional acquisitions in the near future.
    • Perion's market went through major changes in the last year since Google started imposing new restrictions on the market. Google wants to create a more "user-friendly" environment for the end-user.
  • Lands' End: Spin-Off Situation With 60%-90% Upside
    Editors' pick LE Fri, Apr. 18, 10:49 AM New Capital 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Lands' End's recent listing and subsequent price drop seem to indicate a classical spin-off special situation that should generate excess profits for investors.
    • The company's online/catalog business produces stable FCF yield of 13% on current market cap. Increase in debt load will not affect results materially.
    • Relative to peers, Lands' End appears to have a potential upside of 60%-90%.
    • Catalysts include reduction in after spin-off selling, potential reinstatement of dividends and increased awareness of the company among investors.