Seeking Alpha
  • 3D Systems: A Major Decline In Confidence
    DDD Today, 1:40 PM Bill Maurer Comment!

    Summary

    • Q4 miss has analysts skeptical.
    • Estimates dropping toward low end of guidance.
    • Stronger dollar will hurt revenues in 2015.
    • 50-day moving average declining again.
  • Weight Watchers Repeats Henry Ford's Blunder
    WTW Today, 1:38 PM Richard Robinson, Ph.D. Comment!
  • Raptor Pharmaceuticals Has High-Reward Catalysts
    RPTP Today, 1:36 PM Clinically Sound Investor Comment!

    Summary

    • Procysbi sales slowed in Q4 2014, but Raptor should make inroads with further launches in Europe and Latin America. Competition is not a factor.
    • The liver trial is likely to be successful.
    • The Huntington's disease trial is also shown to be likely to receive a favorable FDA decision.
  • HDFC Bank: A Bank One Cannot Avoid
    HDB Today, 1:14 PM Investment Standard Comment!

    Summary

    • HDFC Bank shifted its gear to keep earnings growth steady.
    • Excellent asset quality continues to help the earnings growth while many banks have been struggling with their worst performances due to poor asset quality.
    • Moderating inflation strengthens the expectation of gradual increase in loan production of the banking industry.
  • Arrowhead Research: Non-Significant Undervaluation Rationale, Potential High Alpha
    ARWR Today, 1:06 PM Kanak Kanti De 1 Comment

    Summary

    • ARWR stock is down sharply in the last one year.
    • However, market reaction was based on misperception.
    • ARWR can go up sharply with positive data from ACR-520 trial.
  • Netflix: Taking Middle Kingdom
    NFLX Today, 12:24 PM WestEnd511 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Reuters reported that NFLX may be interested in entering China without a local partner.
    • In reality, the lack of a local partner will make China inaccessible to NFLX given the complex regulatory and business relationships required for an online video platform.
    • NFLX could be a success in China, but an open-minded approach is necessary for a smooth execution.
  • IPO Quiet Period Expiration: Inovalon Holdings
    INOV Today, 12:17 PM Don Dion 1 Comment

    Summary

    • 3.9.2015 ends the 25-day quiet period on INOV. 3.10 is the first day the firm’s IPO underwriters can publish reports and recommendations.
    • INOV provides cloud-based services to the healthcare industry.
    • The quiet period expiration event often leads to above market returns in the days leading up to the event.
    • Given INOV's strong early performance, we see the event as another opportunity to buy into a growing firm.
  • CannLabs' StrainData Positions It To Be The Most Powerful Player In The Space
    CANL Today, 12:14 PM Dallas Salazar 1 Comment

    Summary

    • CANL's StrainData platform furthers the narrative that CANL is so much more than an analytics company.
    • CANL is now positioned to force at least some participation with it on the testing side with what should be quickly growing StrainData key metrics.
    • Acting as the "Google" of its space with StrainData CANL now has a completely vertical operation - something that historically has meant huge power across industries.
    • I continue to be bullish CANL on all durations.
  • Pareto Portfolio Recent Purchase: More Cisco
    CSCO Today, 11:56 AM Michael Allison 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Cisco traded over $30 for the first time in seven years.
    • Cisco is at the forefront of the Internet of Things (IoT).
    • The company fundamentals are extremely strong.
  • AuRico Gold: Not Enough Cash Flow To Service Debt
    AUQ Today, 11:49 AM Christopher De Sousa Comment!

    Summary

    • AuRico Gold topped analysts' earnings estimates as gold sales from Young-Davidson drove revenues higher.
    • AuRico Gold has struggled to generate free cash flows at its high-cost gold mines in Canada and Mexico.
    • AuRico Gold owes $82.5 million in debt within one year but does not have enough cash on hand to pay it off.
  • Google's Ad Network Presents Attractive Fundamentals
    GOOG, GOOGL Today, 11:39 AM Alex Cho 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Google's ad network and programmatic ad bidding are growing at healthy rates.
    • Google believes that it can sustain price increases in its ad network business.
    • Based on the comments of Neal Mohan, and based on the underlying drivers for which premium ads are being sold via a more efficient marketplace mechanism, the trajectory in pricing is sustainable.
    • While the positive commentary does add upside to Google's stock, I still weigh risks associated with the EU antitrust monopoly probe heavily, therefore my price target remains unchanged.
  • Clayton Williams - No Opportunity Yet Following Renewed Disappointments
    CWEI Today, 11:30 AM The Value Investor 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Clayton Williams' shares have not rebounded unlike the rest of the energy complex.
    • The decision to not hedge hurts the results in a big way, as a near 75% cut in capex will hurt production into 2015.
    • Smaller production and high leverage creates real challenges, as shares are still trading far from fire sale prices.
    • I remain very cautious as a result of these observations, as management is far from top-class in an already challenged industry.
  • Zendesk Is Making International And Infrastructural Advances
    ZEN Today, 11:18 AM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • ZEN's two most recent PR's detailing a data center launch in Germany and an Asian HQ are meaningful.
    • ZEN has advances its global presence and fragmented its risk in more ways than one.
    • Continue to be long ZEN.
  • Third Avenue Value Fund's Holding Companies
    TAVFX Today, 11:10 AM Holmes_Osborne 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Many of these holding companies are trading a big discounts to NAV.
    • Underlying growth in NAV has been very impressive for listed stocks.
    • This can be a great way to hold a diversified, global portfolio.
  • Zacks' Bull Of The Day: Affymetrix
    AFFX Today, 11:04 AM Zacks Investment Research 2 Comments
  • Stratasys: Normalized Earnings Are Attractive
    SSYS Today, 11:01 AM Stone Fox Capital 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Stratasys reported Q414 earnings inline with pre-announced estimates.
    • The 3-D printer manufacturer continues to guide to impressive long-term growth with a target of reaching revenue of $3 billion in 2020.
    • The investments of 2014 and 2015 will lead to significantly higher normalized earnings long term.
  • Semafo: The Best Is Yet To Come Following The Orbis Gold Acquisition
    SEMFF Today, 10:55 AM Hard Asset Investments 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Semafo is a profitable gold miner operating in the mining-friendly country of Burkina Faso, West Africa.
    • The company produced 234,300 ounces of gold in 2014 at all-in sustaining costs of just $806 per ounce, making it one of the lowest cost gold producers.
    • The acquisition of Orbis Gold is a potential game-changer for the company.
    • With $128 million in cash, no debt, and growing low-cost gold production, I think Semafo is a buy here.
  • King Digital Is A Bargain At $16
    KING Today, 10:52 AM Jonathan Fishman 6 Comments

    Summary

    • King Digital's stock reached an attractive level.
    • I believe that Wall Street is too conservative in its estimates.
    • Even under a set of very conservative assumptions the risk/reward seems lucrative.
  • Alibaba: IPO Lockup Expiration
    BABA Today, 10:47 AM Don Dion 18 Comments

    Summary

    • March 18, 2015, concludes the 180-day lockup period on BABA.
    • At this point, BABA's 20+ major pre-IPO shareholders will have first chance to take profits on one of the most high-profile IPOs in history.
    • BABA's strong quarterly earnings will not likely detract from the desire of its insiders to at least cash out on some of their holdings.
    • We suggest selling BABA in the days prior to the event to take full advantage of potential declines.
  • It's Finally Time To Buy Alibaba
    BABA Today, 10:40 AM Brian Nichols 16 Comments

    Summary

    • I have remained bearish on BABA since November, even writing a follow-up analysis suggesting to sell BABA in favor of VIPS.
    • After losing nearly $90 billion of valuation, the concerns associated with BABA have become far less of a threat.
    • At $80, BABA has a superior valuation relative to other large, high-growth companies that should yield a nice return.
  • Iconix Brand Group Positions Itself For Strong 2015, Why I'm Still Bullish
    ICON Today, 10:40 AM Chris Katje 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of Iconix traded down after guidance tripped up some analysts.
    • Peanuts continues to be big story going forward and is being underestimated in my opinion for 2015 and 2016.
    • Shares trade at 11 times current and 10 times forward earnings estimates.
  • Kennametal Still 50% Overvalued Based On Risks
    KMT Today, 10:37 AM Jake Huneycutt Comment!

    Summary

    • Kennametal is an excellent company with a track record of generating strong free cash flow growth.
    • KMT is selling near a 52-week low in the $30 - $35 range and pays out a 2.1% dividend.
    • Kennametal is highly cyclical and likely to see its cash flows "revert towards the mean" as the commodity bust continues.
    • Based on a "reversion hypothesis", I'd value KMT around $15, about 58% below the current stock price.
    • KMT might be worth exploring again in 1-3 years if it sees a significant correction.
  • NQ Mobile's Over-Inflated Claims And Overpriced Acquisitions
    NQ Today, 10:29 AM Mobile Investor 21 Comments

    Summary

    • The claim FL Mobile is the top iOS mobile game publisher in China appears to be misleading.
    • Based on valuations of comparable businesses, NationSky should only be worth a fraction of the purported $500 million valuation by NQ Mobile from a tiny 3% stake sale.
    • NQ Mobile's acquisition of vLife looks overpriced when compared to a valuation of a similar publicly-traded company.
    • NQ Mobile's acquisition of Showself also seems overpriced when comparing it to a publicly-traded peer in Hong Kong.
  • DineEquity Looks Reasonably Priced After Debt Refinancing
    DIN Today, 10:21 AM Eric Novinson Comment!

    Summary

    • DineEquity refinanced its debt, greatly impacting 2014 earnings.
    • However, the company now has increased earning power for 2015.
    • This makes its forward valuation appear attractive in comparison to peers.
  • Gaiam: Catalysts On The Immediate Horizon
    Editors' Pick GAIA Today, 10:20 AM Spencer Grimes Comment!

    Summary

    • Recent stock price weakness puzzling given pending spin-off of GTV and launch of yoga apparel line.
    • Sum-of-the-parts valuation method conservatively yields $9+ per GAIA share.
    • Yoga, wellness and "athleisure" trends provide tailwind.
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 3/4/15: CLF, FANG, ARI, ASYS
    ARI, ASYS, BOOT Today, 10:15 AM InsiderInsights Comment!

    Summary

    • Tables of the top insider purchases and sales filed with the SEC on 3/4/15, based on dollar value.
    • Dollar values often do not equate with significance when it comes to insider trades.
    • Proprietary Insider Company Ratings are relayed to clarify significance.
  • A Booming Niche In A Highly Consolidated Market - Craft Brew Alliance
    BREW Today, 10:04 AM APBK Capital Comment!

    Summary

    • Craft Brewing Alliance affirms great outlook for 2015 on craft beer sales continues strong growth trends.
    • Strong finances will propel Craft Brewing Alliance to be a segment leader.
    • Craft Brewing Alliance is highly undervalued compared to the rest of the beer industry.
  • Bonanza Creek - The Situation Is Stabilizing, No Compelling Appeal Yet
    BCEI Today, 9:59 AM The Value Investor Comment!

    Summary

    • Bonanza Creek is taking the right steps to stabilize the business amidst the slump in oil prices.
    • Despite the steps taking I do not see compelling valuation yet, after liquidity has been bolstered.
    • The current losses, modest cash outflows and fair valuation based on reserves make that I do not see compelling upside.
  • Hormel Foods: A Short SWOT Analysis
    Today, 9:59 AM Value Line Comment!

    Summary

    • In order to gain market share, spur volume growth, enhance profitability, and farther distance itself from its meatpacking roots, the company is constantly rolling out new value-added food items.
    • Hormel’s exposure to the pork and turkey markets remains quite high as we head through fiscal 2015.
    • The company, like many of its industry peers, is benefiting from a benign commodity environment these days, especially lower feed costs.
  • Can Dollar General Really Fulfill Its Promise?
    DG Today, 9:56 AM Dana Blankenhorn 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Dollar General has a monopoly position in its poor and rural markets, now adding tobacco and liquor to its line-up.
    • WalMart and Target are both eyeing the niche and preparing to move in.
    • It is unlikely that Dollar General can change enough, fast enough, to compete with this onslaught.
  • Banks Trip Up Apple Pay Launch
    AAPL Today, 9:53 AM Dana Blankenhorn 45 Comments

    Summary

    • Crooks are getting phony cards into the Apple Pay system with a phone call.
    • The problem is with the banks' call centers but Apple is still being criticized.
    • Expect some short-term pressure on Apple shares.
  • Lower Gasoline Prices Benefiting General Motors
    GM Today, 9:49 AM Bret Jensen 8 Comments

    Summary

    • After a miserable 2014 spent in the midst of a large recall scandal, the shares of General Motors have been on the move in 2015, posting a strong performance.
    • The stock is being buoyed by a dividend hike, better sentiment as its messy recall fades to the background and solid domestic vehicle sales.
    • The company is also benefiting from lower gas prices, which is pumping up high margin truck and SUV sales. Even after the recent rally, the shares are still very cheap.
  • Fossil Group: A Buyout Target With 20% Upside
    FOSL Today, 9:34 AM Value Wagon 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Fossil Group has seen its shares fall 24% YTD on the back of lowered management guidance, which presents an attractive opportunity for a leveraged buyout purchase.
    • The company has a proven ability to generate substantial ROIC, free cash flow, and strong EBITDA margins, which help build the case for a buyout scenario.
    • Fossil's shares have underperformed the retail sector and the S&P over the last 2 years, and hedge fund and semi-activist investors may act as a catalyst for a sale.
    • A comps and LBO analysis shows that Fossil could fetch a 20% premium based on its undervaluation, which still gives a private equity buyer adequate 3.6x returns.
  • Abercrombie & Fitch Is A Complete No-Go Stock
    ANF Today, 9:29 AM Stock Gazer 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Specialty apparel retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) is set to report its earnings for the final quarter and full fiscal year 2014 today.
    • Abercrombie & Fitch is expected to report revenues of $1.17 billion, down almost 10% from $1.3 billion in the year ago quarter.
    • Earnings for the quarter are expected to amount to $1.16 per share, down over 13% from $1.34 per share in the year ago quarter.
    • The company has struggled over the last couple of years mainly as a result of the rise of online sales across the US retail industry which has affected store traffic.
    • Abercrombie & Fitch’s poor brand performance, weak portfolio and declining store traffic have dealt a hug blow to investor confidence.
  • Pricing Pressure Will Not Hinder Archer Daniels Performance
    ADM Today, 8:56 AM Winning Strategies Comment!

    Summary

    • Archer Daniels is operating in a volatile industry.
    • The company is open to pricing challenges.
    • Lower commodity prices have equal impact on cost of production.
    • New business and capital allocation strategy will enhance its profits and returns.
    • Archer Daniels is setting strong foot-hold for future growth with its portfolio adjustment and capital allocation strategy.
  • My Top Commercial Services And Supplies Stocks For 2015
    DLX, KNL, USTR Today, 8:54 AM Stan Stafford 2 Comments

    Summary

    • In this series of articles, I will be reviewing individual industry sectors and selecting my favorite stock picks for 2015.
    • For Part 10, I will be reviewing the Commercial Services industry sector, taking a look at revenue/earnings growth, valuations, recent performance, and the overall financial stability of companies.
    • Out of this group of reviewed stocks, my top stocks for 2015 are Deluxe and Knoll.
  • RGS Energy: Narrowing Its Focus
    RGSE Today, 8:51 AM Simple Investment Ideas 2 Comments

    Summary

    • RGS Energy recently announced that it will be cutting 30% of its workforce over the next few months.
    • RGS Energy is wise to cut out unnecessary expenses, as the company is in a particularly precarious financial situation.
    • If RGS Energy continues to focus on its core businesses and find consistent financing, the company should be able to stabilise.
    • Despite the huge potential awards if RGS Energy successfully implements its leasing business, the enormous risks involved with the company cannot be understated.
  • Amarin: Modeling Its Cash Balance Trajectory To 2017
    AMRN Today, 8:28 AM Elephant Analytics 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Amarin is on track to end 2017 with approximately $30 million.
    • The deal with Eddingpharm and the likely exercise of warrants have significantly improved its cash position.
    • REDUCE-IT costs appear to be increasing slightly in 2015 and Amarin still has $31 million in notes to potentially deal with in 2017.
    • Amarin has done an excellent job in cutting costs though, and appears to be in good shape to finish REDUCE-IT as long as NRx keeps growing by 50+ per week.
  • Denver-Based Summit Materials Rolls Out IPO
    SUM Today, 8:21 AM Khurram Aziz Comment!

    Summary

    • Summit Materials Holding, Inc. filed is trying to raise between $377 million and $422 million at expected share price.
    • Over 22.2 million shares will be offered with an underwriter option for an additional 3.3 million shares. The expected price per share is between $17 and $19.
    • Summit Materials was started in 2009 and moved to the LoDo (lower downtown) area of Denver in 2013.
    • The company currently has $1.06 billion in debt and the proceeds of the IPO will go to pay that down.
  • Perrigo - The Upside To This Generic Pharmaceutical Company
    PRGO Today, 8:14 AM Auri Hughes 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Continuous and increased release of new products will drive earnings growth for the remaining FY 15 and into the next year.
    • Synergies from the Omega acquisition will create shareholder value in the out-years.
    • Using conservative multiples based on Perrigo's past P/E range and management's earnings guidance, the stock has significant upside potential.
  • Is There A Turnaround In Sight For McDonald's After Change In Management?
    MCD Today, 8:08 AM Stock Gazer 2 Comments

    Summary

    • McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) has recently appointed former Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Brand Officer Steve Easterbrook as its new CEO after the retirement of Don Thompson.
    • Upon the announcement of the new CEO the company’s stock has surged closer towards the $100 mark as investors have shown their faith in the ability of the new management.
    • McDonald’s troubles over the course of the last couple of years have stemmed from demand side factors such as quality perception.
    • The new management currently faces the uphill task of re-elevating the McDonald’s brand in the eyes of consumers.
    • The new management will have to focus on brand recovery in the domestic segment as well through simplified national menu which caters to the preferences of consumers in the US.
  • Cal-Maine Foods: A Long Term Growth Play

    Summary

    • Top shell egg producer in highly fragmented industry.
    • Steady dividend growth.
    • Acquisition growth and acquisition target.
  • Here's Why You Should Go Long In Ford
    F Today, 7:58 AM Stock Gazer 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Automobile industry giant Ford (NYSE: F) has struggled in terms of revenue growth in FY 2014. Ford’s international revenues have been a cause of concern for the company.
    • Ford has reported an over 50% decline in earnings during FY 2014 but has termed the earnings decline as a temporary hit to earnings owing to increased investments.
    • Trends in the global economy could dampen Ford’s growth over the course of the next couple of years at least.
    • The slowdown of the European economy along with economic turmoil in Russia has been a major cause of concern for Ford.
    • Ford’s revenue growth in China will be important in offsetting downside potential from other operating regions.
  • Counsel Corp. - Growing Lender With No Credit Risk
    CXSNF Today, 7:54 AM Safety In Value Comment!

    Summary

    • Mortgages are substantially insured by the Government of Canada.
    • Growing base of managed mortgages will provide for high margin renewals.
    • Simplifying to one line of business will improve valuation.
  • Market Is Looking For Positive News - Cramer's Mad Money (3/4/15)
    W, RH, MCD Today, 7:45 AM SA Editor Mohit Manghnani Comment!

    Summary

    • Honeywell's CEO interview.
    • Best of biotech stocks.
    • Labcorp is a winner.
  • Bank Of America: Stress Test-Induced Sell-Off Would Be A Great Buying Opportunity
    BAC Today, 7:38 AM Achilles Research 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Bank of America's shares have been trading weakly recently in anticipation of the Fed's stress test results.
    • The Fed's stress test results have a profound influence on whether banks can return capital to shareholders.
    • Banks that fail the stress test will likely come under increased scrutiny by the investing public, which won't bode well for their share prices in the near term.
    • Bank of America already affords investors with a wide margin of safety: It trades at a 26% discount to its latest reported book value.
    • Potential sell-off is a buying opportunity.
  • AbbVie Buys Pharmacyclics: The Story Is Likely Far From Over
    PCYC, ABBV Today, 7:27 AM Investing Healthcare 26 Comments

    Summary

    • PCYC has traded higher the last couple weeks behind rumors that JNJ is nearing a deal to acquire the company.
    • Instead, AbbVie announced it was buying PCYC for $21 billion, at least $3 billion higher than JNJ's bid.
    • While this may seem like a closed book, PCYC investors should hold out a little bit longer, as counter bids might very well follow.
  • Imperial Tobacco - Realizable Upside Post-Reynolds/Lorillard
    ITYBY Today, 7:05 AM Athena Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Strong stock performance relative to comps (British American Tobacco and Philip Morris International) due to lower exposure to emerging markets’ currency headwinds.
    • Valuation in line with peers does not justify short-term correction.
    • End of embargo to benefit partnership with Habanos.
    • Reynolds/Lorillard deal creates an oligopoly in the US market; Imperial Tobacco to benefit from price increases and operational savings.
  • Bob Evans Is A Disappointment - Cramer's Lightning Round (3/4/15)
    SCTY, FSLR, STM Today, 6:09 AM SA Editor Mohit Manghnani Comment!

    Summary

    • DST Systems has more room to run.
    • First Solar has a good yield.
    • Cramer prefers V.F. Corp. over Polo Ralph Lauren.
  • General Electric: The CEO Is Here To Stay And The Shares Are Attractively Valued
    GE Today, 5:59 AM WG Investment Research 13 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent news of the CEO departing has been rebuked by General Electric.
    • Shares of General Electric are attractively valued.
    • General Electric is still a long-term buy.