Seeking Alpha
  • Near-Term Challenges Will Not Deter Hershey From Performing Strongly In The Future
    HSY Today, 5:37 PM Horizon Investments Comment!

    Summary

    • Strong business model and product portfolio will support long-term performance.
    • Price increases will support revenue growth and margin expansion.
    • Product innovation coupled with increase in advertisement spending will support volumes in future.
    • With a strong balance sheet Hershey can opt for aggressive M&A and organic growth to extend the product portfolio.
  • Update: Walter Energy Exchanges Cash And Shares For $52 Million In Debt
    WLT Today, 5:33 PM Elephant Analytics Comment!

    Summary

    • Walter Energy exchanged $5.2 million in cash and 3.9 million shares for $52 million of its 9.875% 2020 notes.
    • The deal will be break-even for Walter Energy's cash flow by June 2015.
    • It does not change my opinion on Walter Energy's survival chances.
    • However, more deals along this line will improve Walter Energy's chances to get through a moderate, but prolonged metallurgical coal recovery situation.
    • As well, if it can remove a significant amount of long-term debt, then it will be in a stronger position post-recovery.
  • Future Netflix Pricing Moves Hold Key To Investor Decisions
    NFLX Today, 5:21 PM Per So 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Netflix erroneously blamed pricing for its lower-than-expected subscriber growth, leading to a 25% drop in share price.
    • Consumer research suggests Netflix could have successfully upped its monthly price to at least $8.99 and even $9.99 for both existing and new subscribers, significantly impacting profitability.
    • More aggressive pricing could double near-term profitability.
    • Netflix analysts and investors should encourage company management to give added focus to the pricing function and consider broader and steeper price increases.
  • Comparing America's 2 Appliances Companies
    IRBT, WHR Today, 5:21 PM Joseph Cafariello Comment!

    Summary

    • The Appliances industry is expected to outperform the S&P broader market substantially this and next quarters, underperform slightly in 2015, and outperform modestly beyond.
    • Mean and high targets for the 2 U.S. Appliances companies – Whirlpool and iRobot - range from 1% below to 55% above current prices.
    • Find out which between Whirlpool and iRobot offers the best stock performance and investment value.
  • Stay Far Away From Movado Group Inc.
    MOV Today, 4:56 PM Jaxon Research 1 Comment

    Summary

    • With its third quarter earnings report approaching, Movado has just lowered its full year guidance.
    • The lowering of guidance is due to disappointing third quarter results and the company expects this to continue into the fourth quarter.
    • With little expected growth in revenue combined with an expected fall in operating profit, I advise investors to stay far way from Movado stock.
  • AMD Introduces New Mobile APUs, Slashes Price Of Exisiting Ones To Gain Back Lost PC Market Share From Intel
    AMD Today, 4:44 PM Trefis 1 Comment

    Summary

    • AMD announces new mobile APUs designed as complete solutions for gaming, productivity applications and ultra high-definition 4K experiences.
    • AMD continues to struggle in the Computing and Graphics business due to ongoing weakness in the consumer PC market.
    • We believe in the company’s long-term growth potential, reflected in our price estimate of $4.12, which represents a more than 50% premium to the current market price.
  • Comparing America's 3 Largest Diversified Communication Services Companies
    CCI, CCOI, LVLT Today, 4:29 PM Joseph Cafariello Comment!

    Summary

    • The Diversified Communication Services industry is expected to outperform the S&P broader market significantly this and next quarters, underperform slightly in 2015, and outperform modestly beyond.
    • Mean/high targets for 3 largest U.S. Diversified Communication Services companies – Crown Castle, Level 3 Communications, Cogent Communications - range from 6% to 33% above current prices.
    • Find out which among Crown, Level 3 and Cogent offers the best stock performance and investment value.
  • Update: Reservoir Minerals Finds Gold In Cameroon
    RVRLF Today, 4:21 PM The Investment Doctor Comment!

    Summary

    • Reservoir Minerals announces its trenching program in Cameroon has confirmed wide-spread gold mineralization.
    • This is good news and positions the company as a multiple asset play.
    • The investment thesis won’t be impacted until a first resource estimate would be completed.
  • Google Class A Vs. Class C: Buy GOOGL, Steer Clear Of GOOG
    GOOGL Today, 4:18 PM Celan Bryant 1 Comment

    Summary

    • As of March 2014, Google founders owned 55.7% of the voting power.
    • As a way to avoid ceding majority control of the company Google created non-voting shares (Class C) through a 2:1 dividend stock split.
    • Google plans to use Class C shares as a way to pay for acquisitions and compensation.
    • Over time, as the supply of Class C shares outpaces Class A shares, the discount between the two shares will increase.
  • Valero: The Refiner To Weather The Oil Price Storm
    VLO Today, 4:16 PM Bryan Thomas 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors are looking for good stocks to weather the oil price storm and Valero is a good pick for this purpose.
    • When compared to its competitors, Valero competes well with comparable fundamental metrics and is significantly undervalued when compared to its peers.
    • Tesoro, Marathon, and Phillips 66 all represent good investments but Valero is a better play for those looking for a value buy.
  • FX Headwinds Cause This IMS Health Bull To Go Risk-Off
    Editors' Pick IMS Today, 3:42 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • Sadly, I have to sell away my IMS position, taking home only half the return that IMS offered just weeks ago.
    • IMS exposure to USD strength and its inability to hedge against this in size will allow margin contraction and income statement pressure to continue into the mid-term.
    • I think IMS is a long-term core position, but I cant own shares into what is highly visible bottom line pressure from FX.
  • Ford Motor: 3 Catalysts For Ford Motor That Could Drive The Share Price Past $20 In 2015
    F Today, 3:34 PM Achilles Research 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Ford Motor is one of the most attractive U.S. equity investments for 2015 -- in the entire stock market.
    • A few macroeconomic and operational catalysts could give Ford's share price a serious boost.
    • Investors still benefit from a high margin of safety, and a very compelling risk/reward ratio.
    • Reaching $20 is only a question of when, not if.
  • Multi-Color's One-Two Growth And Margin Punch
    LABL Today, 3:26 PM Stephen Simpson, CFA Comment!

    Summary

    • Multi-Color not only beat expectations again at the gross margin line, but acquisitions and organic growth are coming in better as well.
    • With modest underlying market growth and balance sheet limitations on the amount of growth to be brought in through M&A, ongoing margin improvement is key to growth and value.
    • Multi-Color shares aren't nearly the bargain they once were, but expectations are not excessive yet.
  • Peabody Energy's Attempt To Get Coal Back On The Agenda: Not Successful
    BTU Today, 3:25 PM Keith Williams 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Big week for international leaders' meetings at G20, with announcements from US, China, India, Germany, UK and UN all proposing slashing fossil fuel emissions.
    • Key China/US joint announcement on climate change and reducing fossil fuel use.
    • India announces possible end of coal imports within 3 years.
    • Coal industry in decline: alternative business strategies considered by major coal companies (not Peabody Energy).
    • Glimmer of hope for Adani’s Galilee basin Carmichael project, but still long odds for financing.
  • SolarCity: How Much Value Does Elon Musk Add?
    SCTY Today, 3:20 PM Simple Investment Ideas 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Elon Musk has had a much more influential role in SolarCity than most people realize.
    • The value that Elon Musk brings to SolarCity is not properly reflected in the stock value.
    • SolarCity's dominant position will not change anytime soon, especially with a robust management team.
  • Precious Metals: Timing And Flexibility Is The Key To A Successful Trade
    GLD, SLV Today, 3:18 PM Bob Kirtley 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Stay flexible and be prepared to trade either way, being a perma-bull or a perma-bear is far too ridged a stance to take in any market sector.
    • Decide on what you think the big picture looks like. Our opinion, for what it is worth, is that we are still in this bear phase and should trade accordingly.
    • The next bounce in prices could be another false dawn disguised as a rally and we have had many of those over the last three years in this market sector.
  • HealthSouth: Capacity Growth, Secular Trends
    HLS Today, 3:14 PM DAG1996 1 Comment

    Summary

    • HealthSouth is aggressively expanding capacity to continue growth.
    • New capacity coming online 2014Q4 should increase 2015 earnings.
    • The company’s growth plan is well-aligned with several secular trends.
    • Dividend initiation and growth indicates new shareholder-friendly view.
  • Is The GE Transformation Moving Fast Enough?
    GE Today, 3:01 PM Clayton Rulli 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Many investors feel GE is moving at a snail's pace in steering the company to success.
    • CEO Jeff Immelt seems to be following through with his plan to wind down GE Capital and grow the Industrial Division.
    • A look at before and after the Financial Crisis: How does GE compare?
  • Long-Term Macro Trends Supporting $310 Price Target For Tesla Motors
    TSLA Today, 3:00 PM Immigrant Financial 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Initiating coverage on Tesla Motors at a price target of $310, rounded down from DCF analysis yielding $318 value.
    • Pure electric vehicles provide the best value proposition to consumers and the Model S compares favorably to other high end vehicles. Concerns over demand are unwarranted.
    • Stock valuations are likely to expand going forward; technology stocks are leading the way in P/E expansion. Tesla's astronomical valuation is likely to persist until the market pops.
    • While some short arguments are valid, TSLA is likely to continue moving higher over the next several years.
    • Long term prospects for the business are sound. Short sellers face the risk of TSLA organically growing into its lofty valuation.
  • Update: Cliffs Natural Resources May Give Up On Bloom Lake
    CLF Today, 2:58 PM The Panoramic View 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Cliffs Natural Resources recently announced that it is considering closing its Bloom Lake operations.
    • The announcement makes me significantly less bullish on the company, as selling Bloom Lake represented significant upside for the company.
    • I did not anticipate that Cliffs would consider giving up on Bloom Lake so quickly.
  • Why Conn's Should Target Successful Millennials
    CONN Today, 2:40 PM Brent Maedl Comment!

    Summary

    • Conn's bad debt has become their biggest issue.
    • It should take advantage of the largest demographic, millennials.
    • The company's bad debt will only increase if it doesn't change.
    • Changing Conn's image is critical to its success.
  • Reliance Steel & Aluminum An Enticing Buy
    RS Today, 2:40 PM Mitchell Mauer Comment!

    Summary

    • Reliance Steel & Aluminum is an attractive long-term investment.
    • A high free cash flow yield and solid dividend track record make the stock especially enticing.
    • The company's current ratio and net profit margin should provide comfort to potential investors.
  • ModernGraham Annual Valuation Of The Walt Disney Company
    DIS Today, 2:25 PM Benjamin Clark 1 Comment

    Summary

    • DIS is not suitable for Defensive Investors or Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach.
    • According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is fairly valued at the present time.
    • The market is implying 8.82% earnings growth over the next 7-10 years, which is within a margin of safety relative to the rate the company has seen in recent years.
  • Update: Nordstrom Maintains Quarterly Dividend
    JWN Today, 2:23 PM Winning Strategies Comment!

    Summary

    • Nordstrom announced fourth quarter dividend.
    • The company’s expansion strategy is working.
    • Nordstrom is set to make big profits.
  • Swatch: Good Headline On Swiss Exports, But Worrying Mix Trend Continues
    SWGAY Today, 2:19 PM Aviate Comment!
  • ResMed: Growing Addressable Market But Possible Developing Product Commoditization
    Editors' Pick RMD Today, 2:04 PM Investing Doc Comment!

    Summary

    • ResMed Inc.'s operating results were a bit of a mixed bag, with revenue growth offset by declines in gross and operating margin.
    • Aggressive pricing by ResMed's competitors required that it respond in kind, and the actions all suggest that switching costs may be becoming less of an issue.
    • Though I expect ResMed to compete well on the basis of inexorable demographic trends and its intangible assets and product pipeline, margin pressure leads me to urge caution for now.
    • I am lowering my fair value estimate for the stock modestly, and I view the stock as fully valued at this time, targeting an entry point below $45.
  • Zebra: Motorola Still Overshadows Core Business Strength
    ZBRA Today, 2:00 PM AtonRa Partners Comment!

    Summary

    • Core business has been impressive lately, with organic growth accelerating to 13% in Q3.
    • But investors continue to focus on the Motorola unit's poor performances and integration challenges.
    • Should Zebra succeed in reviving the Motorola business, the value creation potential would be huge.
  • Whiting Petroleum Corporation - A Company On The Move
    WLL Today, 1:45 PM Marko Mircetic Comment!

    Summary

    • WLL shares declined 39.38% since August, which creates a great opportunity for investors.
    • A bullish 2015 outlook from management's perspective includes current oil prices.
    • The Kodiak acquisition seems like a move in the right direction.
  • WWE's Narrow-Minded Focus Is Alienating Fans And Investors
    WWE Today, 1:39 PM Edward Vranic, CFA Comment!

    Summary

    • WWE is pushing the WWE Network in an effort to follow a business model similar to Netflix.
    • This business decision is cannibalizing higher margin revenues, driving the company from a profit to a loss even as it downsizes and cuts costs to produce its content.
    • WWE Network is having problems gaining traction as it doesn't have enough content to keep users engaged.
    • Further declines in profits should be expected as WWE offers cheap/free price plans to stimulate growth.
    • Jim Cornette, a veteran of the wrestling business, believes that pro wrestling is dying. Ominous words for a company that achieves all of its revenues from wrestling.
  • Avon Calls On The Girl From Ipanema
    AVP Today, 1:30 PM Kevin Donovan Comment!

    Summary

    • She got away in the third quarter, but Brazil remains the key to turnaround.
    • Conservative valuation on 2015 estimates rates a buy recommendation.
    • The dividend is safe, in our view.
  • Blue Nile: Breaking Hearts - And Share Value
    NILE Today, 1:15 PM The Street Sweeper Comment!

    Summary

    • NILE’s net income has dropped dramatically. At just $1.65 million, quarterly net income dropped 57%. This decline is steeper than in 2011, when the CEO resigned and stock dropped 27%.
    • NILE also faces a big problem inherent to its online business. Executives say NILE struggles with getting men to buy engagement rings online because of “trust” and “relationship” issues.
    • Giants like Costco, Wal-Mart, Amazon, Tiffany and QVC are stealing the hearts of NILE’s would-be customers. So competition will explode as they advertise more to acquire more and more customers.
    • NILE’s early-bird advantage is gone. It now faces issues of market share, growing competition, declining net income, insider selling, departing managers, questionable traditional store “testing,” and weakening business model.
  • Estée Lauder's Fluctuating Future Outlook
    EL Today, 1:06 PM Stock Gazer Comment!

    Summary

    • In the Q1 FY2015 results, top line growth for the first quarter declined by nearly 1.6%, as sales were recognized at $2.631 billion.
    • Net earnings for the company amounted to $229.2 million; down by 24.1% over last year. The company had lowered its outlook for the next quarter.
    • The recent round of acquisitions carried out by Estée Lauder are likely to contribute towards strengthening its product portfolio and contribute to top line growth in the future.
    • The challenges that Estée Lauder faces are not a result of operational inefficiencies. Instead they are due to the weak external environment.
    • As soon as signs of recovery become evident in the market for its products, Estée Lauder is likely to grow as its long term growth prospects remain intact.
  • Buying Opportunity For Proteon Therapeutics As Quiet Period Expires
    PRTO Today, 12:59 PM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • The quiet period for Waltham, MA-based PRTO expired on November 17.
    • On November 18, PRTO's IPO underwriters, including JMP Securities, Stiffel Nicolaus & Co., Oppenheimer and Robert W. Baird & Co., could boost PRTO's price by issuing positive research reports.
    • PRTO got off to a weak start on the market, and has been trading in a narrow range since, leaving room for appreciation.
    • We suggest investors consider this event a buying opportunity.
  • 3 North American Contract Drillers Involved In U.S. Oil Shale
    NBR, PKD, HP Today, 12:48 PM Fun Trading 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The price of oil tumbled as much as 25% in less than three months. Some analysts think it is only a start and it may get worse, others think differently.
    • These three stocks have dropped well over 30% in a few months and we may be close to a bottom now. Depending on the direction of the oil price.
    • Which one is the most likely to rebound first? Let's look at it, while waiting for oil rebound.
  • Enova International Inc. - A Very Attractive Spin-Off Opportunity
    Editors' Pick ENVA Today, 12:37 PM Fabian Kostadinov 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Enova International has spun off from its parent Cash America International Inc. a few days ago.
    • Its internet-only credit service business model is highly scalable at little added costs.
    • From 2009 to 2014, Enova was able to grow its EBITDA at an average CAGR of 38.7%.
    • With a ROE currently exceeding 80%, Enova is a truly exceptional "cash machine".
    • Indiscriminate selling by shareholders of the parent company has created a great buy opportunity, which I expect will diminish soon.
  • Facebook Targets The Corporate Market For Non-Ad Revenues
    FB Today, 12:30 PM Lior Ronen 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Facebook is continuously trying to locate emerging revenue streams to lower its dependency on ad sales and generate revenues outside of its core business.
    • Facebook targets the corporate market for non-ad revenues by offering professional services in its new professional social network and internal corporate communication application.
    • Facebook has the knowledge to execute these two initiatives successfully and grow its non-ad revenues from adjustment markets to its core business.
  • Update: Columbus Gold Advances Environmental Work At The Paul Isnard Project
    CBGDF Today, 12:28 PM Itinerant Comment!

    Summary

    • Field baseline studies at Paul Isnard project has been completed.
    • Confirms our view of solid progress towards release of a PEA early next year.
    • Resource update should provide the next catalyst.
  • Foresight Energy LP: An Illinois Basin Coal Story With Sustainable Distribution Growth And 7.3% Yield
    FELP Today, 12:28 PM Praveen Sharon 1 Comment

    Summary

    • FELP is a low cost Illinois based thermal coal producer with potential to grow distribution in excess of 12% to 15% over the next 4 years driven by organic expansion.
    • Despite the challenges faced by the US coal industry, FELP well positioned to gain market share driven by competitive cost position.
    • Trades at a dividend yield of 7.3% at its minimum quarterly distribution of $ 0.3375 ($ 1.32 on annualized basis).
  • Erie Indemnity Now Offers Hybrid Auto Insurance To Uber, Lyft, And Sidecar Drivers
    ERIE Today, 12:17 PM Top Hats 3 Comments

    Summary

    • ERIE has an amazing dividend history and a first-to-market, earnings growth opportunity in insuring the drivers of transportation network companies (TNCs).
    • As we prepare for the IPOs of TNCs such as Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar, ERIE is a rare opportunity to capitalize on the new players of the "sharing economy."
    • There has been a surprising lack of innovative coverage to provide for this sector by mega-cap insurance companies, and until others follow suit, ERIE has a huge growth opportunity.
    • We'll take a look at front-runner Uber to size up the current opportunity of hybrid insurance.
  • Celsion's Prospects For A Significant Upside Just Got A Lot Better
    CLSN Today, 12:12 PM Clinically Sound Investor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • OPTIMA, the Phase III follow-up to 2013's failed Phase III HEAT trial is running on compelling post-hoc analysis showing better survival in primary liver cancer with an improvement in technique.
    • DIGNITY, a Phase II study in recurrent chest wall breast cancer, will have final results out soon. It boasts a 30% complete response rate in 10 patients evaluated so far.
    • Euro-DIGNITY was newly announced at the third quarter report. It is much larger in scale than its U.S. counterpart, and should promise similar success. Plus, Celsion is partnered with MedLogics.
    • Cash position is at $43 million. Management states it will hold until 2016. Celsion's cap is under $50 million, an incredible situation given its advanced cancer pipeline.
    • This is a buy and hold for 2-4 quarters. Final OPTIMA results should bring a minimum 15% spike. Euro-DIGNITY launch and updates (Celsion is very timely) provide several multi-bagger catalysts.
  • Forcefield Energy: Competitive Advantage, Blue Sky Opportunity Offer Investors Significant Upside
    FNRG Today, 12:03 PM Larry Meyers 7 Comments

    Summary

    • The world is moving rapidly to LED lighting, thanks to massive cost savings and low material costs.
    • ForceField Energy has a unique competitive advantage: client financing.
    • It rolls up competitors and integrates them into its own sales and marketing strategy.
    • It is reasonably valued compared to other micro caps, but has blue sky opportunity that others lack.
  • Expect American Software's Growth Problem To Continue
    AMSWA Today, 11:59 AM David Hernandez 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Management attributes American Software's lack of growth to a sluggish economy and a tough selling environment.
    • The company's continued struggles hint at an execution issue.
    • If American Software has an execution issue, management hasn't clearly addressed the problem.
  • Con-Way Should Continue Going Strong
    CNW Today, 11:53 AM Ross Capital Comment!

    Summary

    • All the company’s segments continue to show improvement.
    • A better pay structure in 2015 should help the company meet its drivers need.
    • The macro conditions are also favorable for the company.
    • Con-way is undervalued by at least 10%.
  • Is IBM Suddenly Vulnerable To A Takeover?
    IBM Today, 11:46 AM Dana Blankenhorn 43 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM is now dirt-cheap, priced at a fraction of its key competitors in technology.
    • The history of the company shows it needs a strong entrepreneur to succeed.
    • Activist investors can have a field day here, and you should join them.
  • How Does Freeport-McMoRan Use Collars To Hedge Commodity Price Exposure?
    FCX Today, 11:44 AM ColoradoWealthManagementFund 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Freeport-McMoRan is using collars built from put options to hedge their exposure to falling prices.
    • The current prices of oil are nearing the bottom of the collar.
    • The collars are in shape to pay off dramatically for the company this quarter.
    • The latest presentation showed the potential for some significant gains.
    • Options traders may know this strategy by the name “Bear Put Spread”.
  • Investing In Spas And The Pampering Lifestyle For Fun And Profit
    STNR Today, 11:42 AM Dr. Harold Goldmeier Comment!

    Summary

    • A few companies are cashing in on the $15b spa market, and they are worth considering as investment opportunities.
    • The pampering industry is in the early stages with respectable annual growth, ROI, and profitability with leaders like Steiner Leisure and Roark Capital Group.
    • Like Mr. Buffett says invest in what you like. If you like massages and making money here you go.
  • Starwood To Shine Again
    HOT Today, 11:33 AM Consumer Contrarian Comment!

    Summary

    • Starwood has outstanding growth prospects and an exemplary track record for past performance.
    • The stock has underperformed the lodging group in 2014, due mainly to the slow-down in China, where much of its future growth depends.
    • With all other parts of its business continuing to perform well, the stock is attractively valued and represents the best play on the ultimate recovery of high-end lodging in China.
  • Peyto Exploration: Canadian Gas Producer Offers Shelter From The (Oil) Storm
    PEYUF Today, 11:28 AM Michael Fitzsimmons 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Low cost Canadian gas producer delivered an excellent Q3 EPS report: up 114% yoy.
    • Production per share increased 33%; FFO was up 63%/share; monthly dividend increased 10%.
    • Canadian gas storage inventories are significantly below the 5-year minimum - a bullish catalyst moving forward.
    • I reiterate my STRONG BUY rating on PEYUF and raise my 12-month PT to $40.
  • Wall Street Overreacts To BIND Therapeutics Presentations
    BIND Today, 11:22 AM Clinically Sound Investor Comment!

    Summary

    • Shares sank 20% in yesterday’s trading after BIND presented final data on its Phase II trial of BIND-014 for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
    • Disappointment rested on a realization that with a relatively short overall survival, BIND will have to target smaller subgroups of NSCLC.
    • Topline results of the prostate cancer Phase II study with BIND-014 as a potential first-line treatment remains a catalyst for the year.
  • Northwest Biotherapeutics: Capital Raise Of $35 Million Could Be A Positive Catalyst For The Stock
    NWBO Today, 11:21 AM Smith On Stocks 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Neil Woodford, a highly respected UK portfolio manager has just invested $25 million on very favorable terms and the Company has also received $10 million from a mortgage financing.
    • This takes away the near term concern about financing that has been a lid on the stock.
    • There is now a cash runway to see the Company through to the release of phase 3 results on DCVax-L in 2H, 2015 and completion of phase 1 DCVax Direct.
    • I see this as a significant catalyst for the stock.