Seeking Alpha
  • I Believe Union Pacific Is Just Guilty By Association For Now
    UNP Today, 12:57 AM Abba's Aces 1 Comment

    Summary

    • I don't believe the problems that plague Kansas City Southern and Genessee & Wyoming are relevant to Union Pacific.
    • Though the company received a couple of downgrades I don't believe they are warranted right now.
    • Unless there is a bigger macroeconomic issue taking place in the country then I believe Union Pacific shouldn't have a problem like the other railroads mentioned.
  • Exor Is A Great Holding Company To Keep An Eye On
    EXOSF Today, 12:38 AM Holmes_Osborne Comment!

    Summary

    • Exor controls CNH Industrial and Fiat.
    • Agnelli family has done a great job with investments.
    • The stock has been a ten-bagger over the decade.
  • Now Is The Time To Accumulate Franco-Nevada
    FNV Today, 12:11 AM Christopher F. Davis Comment!

    Summary

    • I have yet to initiate coverage on Franco Nevada.
    • I feel the stock is being sold off based on misinterpretations of the company's overly conservative guidance.
    • With a strong diversified investment portfolio and revenues expected to continue to hit records, I think now is the time to accumulate Franco-Nevada.
  • Home Depot Should Remain Strong Despite This Uncertain Market
    HD Yesterday, 10:57 PM Abba's Aces 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The S&P 500 has been losing steam lately indicating that there may be a problem in the economy but Home Depot should weather any storm.
    • The company announced an accelerated share buyback program which I think should be good for a penny on the EPS.
    • Since winning my Portfolio of Thirty Super Bowl the stock is up 5.65% versus the 0.04% drop in the S&P 500.
  • It's Time To Sell IberiaBank
    IBKC Yesterday, 9:17 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • IBKC was a calculated risk that I advised Seeking Alpha PRO readers to take just two months ago, and it has paid out 7.6% ex. dividends.
    • Now, however, with heightened macroeconomic risk in IBKC's immediate regional areas, it's time to risk off and ring the register.
    • I'm no perma IBKC bear, but the risk reward of this trade is no longer in favor of owning.
  • These 3 Scenarios Could Significantly Change PepsiCo's Valuation
    PEP Yesterday, 8:25 PM Trefis 3 Comments

    Summary

    • PepsiCo's stock grew 45% from 2011 to 2014, the same time in which the company's revenues remained flat.
    • One of the main reasons for the flat top line growth is the decline in beverage revenues. Negative currency translations have also dragged down net sales, offsetting strong organic growth.
    • We estimate a $102 price for PepsiCo, which is above the current market price.
  • Take Caution With BB&T As History Has Shown It Should Give A Chance To Buy Lower
    BBT Yesterday, 7:38 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • BBT is a fine bank, but it does have a long and established history of "EPS decay".
    • I believe this, plus the fact that it is not at anything of a value when measured to peers, provides reason for investors to take caution with new buys.
    • I also believe that investors can be tactical with this information and look to add or initiate at a higher yield and/or lower price.
    • BBT will be just fine in the future, but take caution with this name at this price.
  • LookSmart: Clickable Is Gaining Traction But Overshadowed By Near Term Liquidity Risk
    LOOK Yesterday, 7:26 PM Bram de Haas Comment!

    Summary

    • Legacy business continues decline while Clickable.com is gaining traction.
    • Snowy August Management LLC advanced certain funds to the Company in the aggregate amount of in $750,000..
    • It is highly likely there will be an additional capital raise or (partial) sale of the business early or halfway through 2015.
    • I remain long because my calculations show that even after a highly dilutive offering (doubling shares outstanding) the stock has multi bagger potential.
  • Bank Of America - Recent Sell-Off Creates Ideal Entry Point For Long-Term Investors
    BAC Yesterday, 7:14 PM Tim Travis 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Bank of America's recent sell-off provides a stellar entry point to a bank that should post several years of earnings and dividend growth, with a large margin of safety.
    • I believe 2014 is the last year of massive litigation expenses; moving forward, we should really begin to see the earnings power improve.
    • Future utilization of DTAs will free up some of BAC's trapped capital and allow for greater returns on equity.
  • Why Melco Crown Entertainment's Sell-Off May Be Overdone
    MPEL Yesterday, 6:51 PM Michael Grogan 1 Comment

    Summary

    • While Macau is one of the largest casino hotspots worldwide, revenues for the industry have taken a tumble.
    • Melco Crown Entertainment had performed well on a return basis up until recently, generating alpha returns from 2008 to 2014..
    • However, I see the selloff as being overdone and Melco Crown Entertainment may have potential to rebound going forward.
  • Demandware: Don't Ignore The Competition
    DWRE Yesterday, 6:35 PM Focus Equity Comment!

    Summary

    • Demandware has been witnessing impressive growth lately, thanks to the growth of digital commerce.
    • E-commerce is set to witness double-digit growth. There seems to be unanimity among research firms about that.
    • Competition is flocking towards the industry, and Demandware doesn't hold a clear leadership position.
    • Therefore, inflated valuation, based on strengths that can be replicated by competitors, is not justifiable.
  • Old National: A 3.46% Yielding Regional On The Verge Of Multiple Expansion? I Think So
    ONB Yesterday, 6:22 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • Old National offers excellent yield with the potential for excellent all-in return should it be able to continue to execute operationally.
    • ONB should be done with acquisitions in the near term, which will allow this forgotten regional an opportunity to realize cost cuts and efficiencies.
    • I also believe ONB to be undervalued fundamentally when compared to a closely related peer group, which should provide room for multiple expansion.
    • Look for the combination of multiple growth and further operational improvements to help drive ONB share price over the next 12-15 months.
  • Swedish Match AB, A Smokeless Alternative
    SWMAY, SWMAF Yesterday, 6:16 PM WestPeak Research Association Comment!

    Summary

    • Swedish Match AB (OTC Pink: SWMAY) (Swedish Match) is a vertically integrated tobacco products, matches, and lighters company based in Stockholm, Sweden. Our research focuses on Swedish Match's snus product.
    • Snus (Swedish IPA: “snʉːs”), is a finely ground and unfermented tobacco product that is water pasteurized, packaged in small cellulose pouches (or kept loose), and sold in circular containers.
    • The arbitrary nature of Article 17, government support, and increasing scientific data in favour of the snus may result in an eventual lifting of the ban.
    • Public awareness of the harms of cigarette smoking has the potential to drive the transition towards Swedish Match’s products.
    • Target price of $23.17 USD based on discounted cash flow analysis.
  • Jamba: Misunderstood Asset-Light Plan Is Dilutive And Destroys Value
    JMBA Yesterday, 5:44 PM SmallCap Contrarian Comment!

    Summary

    • Jamba bulls promulgate numerous myths and gloss over numerous inconvenient truths in promoting the plan.
    • The franchise royalty rate is the key number in any franchise model, and is materially overstated by Jamba bulls, creating an enormous hole in company guidance.
    • Using an easily estimated actual royalty rate demonstrates that the plan destroys EBITDA.
    • We highlight a number of other issues worthy of more in-depth analysis.
  • JinkoSolar: Transforming Into An Industry Leader
    JKS Yesterday, 5:42 PM Simple Investment Ideas 18 Comments

    Summary

    • JinkoSolar is dramatically deepening its finance pool and lowering its costs of capital, which should give it a huge competitive edge moving forward.
    • JinkoSolar is continually reducing its industry-leading cost structure, which has contributed to the company's exceptional gross margins.
    • While JinkoSolar's module efficiencies may pose some problems down the road, the company is improving the situation by putting an increasing emphasis on R&D.
  • Wolfcamp Oil, Colombia Exploration Supports Anadarko's Growth Story
    APC Yesterday, 5:37 PM Callum Turcan Comment!

    Summary

    • Anadarko Petroleum plans on developing the Wolfcamp oil window in the Delaware Basin to support its long-term shale growth ambitions.
    • With 1 BBOE+ of net recoverable resources sitting on its 255,000 net acres in the Delaware Basin, Anadarko has a long growth runway ahead of it.
    • Longer laterals, better completion techniques, shorter frac spacing helped boost its Wolfcamp well EUR by 30% versus its previous design.
    • Two exploration wells targeting prospects in offshore Colombia will be drilled this year, along with a 3D seismic survey of several exploration blocks.
    • Anadarko Petroleum's ability to bolster its reserve base gives investors a reason to check out the company.
  • Pharmacyclics, BioMarin, And Incyte: A Quick Screen
    IBB, BMRN, INCY Yesterday, 5:30 PM William Meyers 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Pharmacyclics, BioMarin, and Incyte are all dependent on assumed pipeline value for their market capitalizations.
    • Pharmacyclics is leading the three in revenue and profits.
    • BioMarin specializes in orphan drugs, mainly enzymes.
    • Incyte has the best-looking pipeline, but the least current revenue.
  • Gold Resource Corp.: Top Tier Miner Trades At Attractive Discount To Peers
    GORO Yesterday, 5:24 PM Chris Rutherglen 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Top-tier Mexican underground precious metal miner, Gold Resource, has a 50-100% upside relative to its peers under current market conditions.
    • Mineral value per tonne of ore mined and its free cash flow margin are amongst the richest within its peer group.
    • Yields 15% on a free cash flow to enterprise value metric.
  • Abengoa Yield: Well Diversified YieldCo With Significant Growth Potential
    ABY Yesterday, 4:25 PM Darspal S Mann Comment!

    Summary

    • Notwithstanding the interest rates and regulatory risks, the company is well positioned to become a core YieldCo holding.
    • Well diversified assets, high growth, good pipeline of potential acquisition assets should help the dividends grow consistently.
    • Stock should benefit as the dividend estimates move higher and company gets more coverage.
  • The Philosopher Series, Part XV: What Would Bacon Invest In Today?
    ABT, BKS, MORN Yesterday, 4:13 PM Get Rich Brothers Comment!

    Summary

    • Bacon lived until the early seventeenth century.
    • I have chosen three companies I believe would merit his investment.
    • Bacon is recognized as the father of the scientific method.
  • Lindsay - Tough Times Continue, No Short-Term Triggers In Sight
    LNN Yesterday, 4:13 PM The Value Investor 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Lindsay continues to be hurt by the weakness in the architectural sector.
    • Soft demand for irrigation equipment and the completion of a large infrastructure project leave few short-term triggers.
    • Despite the operational softness following two years of revenue declines, shares are holding up relatively well.
    • At current levels, I see little opportunity for investors as shares have already been awarded rich multiples based on "through-the-cycle" earnings.
  • Noble Corporation Could See 50%+ Upside Over The Next 12-18 Months
    NE Yesterday, 3:28 PM Ryan Peckyno 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Noble Corporation is currently trading at less than $15/share. That provides an attractive entry point for investors who are willing to assume a fair amount of risk.
    • Noble will most likely not cut its dividend in 2015.
    • Shares of Noble are inexpensive when compared to historical metrics, price/earnings, price/book, price/cash flow, price/sales, and other valuation metrics.
    • Although the competitive landscape for offshore drillers remains challenging, Noble has a solid fleet, a strong management team, and is well-positioned to weather the storm.
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Finally Interesting After Positive Stock Reaction
    FCX Yesterday, 3:27 PM Stone Fox Capital 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Freeport-McMoRan cut quarterly dividend by 84% to $0.05.
    • The stock had a positive reaction to a very negative corporate event.
    • The positive action in copper prices turns us to a tentative bull on the stock.
  • Bank Of America Common Stock Offers Solid Upside, But Warrants Offer More
    BAC Yesterday, 3:23 PM Wall Street Hippie 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Bank of America is a great value play for investors seeking to gain from battered banks.
    • While the common stock offers solid potential gains, warrants offer investors a way of leveraging those returns.
    • I'll start off by going over the characteristics of the warrants.
    • Then I'll evaluate Bank of America common stock through 2018.
    • Lastly, I'll apply the projected stock performance to the warrant model so that investors can determine which investment best suits his or her needs.
  • Valero Energy: A Value Play With Attractive Growth Catalysts
    VLO Yesterday, 3:11 PM UGA Student Managed Investment Fund 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Valero’s assets are heavily concentrated in advantageous locations, with more than 70% of Valero’s refining capacity in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Mid-Continent.
    • Valero is heavily under-valued based on comparable company analysis, and DCF analysis.
    • Management is targeting a payout ratio greater than 50% via dividends and stock buybacks.
    • Heavy focus on logistics growth (representing 30% of future capital investments).
    • Target debt-to-capitalization ratio of 20% to 30% (Emphasis on maintaining an investment grade credit rating, and strong financial position).
  • Alibaba Begins Taobao Clean-Up
    BABA Yesterday, 3:03 PM Doug Young 13 Comments
  • Why We PASS On GoDaddy IPO
    GDDY Yesterday, 3:02 PM ProfessorFX 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Consumer Rankings Users rank GoDaddy #8 of to 10 Web Hosting Picks of 2015.
    • GoDaddy is a mature company…upside is not promising.
    • Incredibly competitive market and four straight years of $100+ million losses are not a good combination.
  • The Seasonality Of Apple In April
    Yesterday, 2:51 PM David Becker Comment!

    Summary

    • Apple Seasonally Rises in April.
    • The Seasonal Change is Strong Relative to the NASDAQ 100.
    • Seasonality Reflects Regular Changes that Occur Every Year.
  • Diana Shipping At The Price Floor, Seasonal Bounce Expected In Fall
    DSX Yesterday, 2:51 PM Stock Puzzle 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Diana Shipping's share price follows the Baltic Dry Index.
    • The Baltic Dry Index is at all time lows. Downside potential is limited.
    • The Baltic Dry Index has a seasonal bounce in the fall.
  • Exxon Mobil: Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) And Valuation
    XOM Yesterday, 2:50 PM Kyler Hasson 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Exxon Mobil should be able to earn an ROCE of at least 15% over time.
    • Its ROCE and price to capital employed give the company good prospective returns.
    • Free cash flow doesn't always tell the whole story for oil and gas companies.
  • BlackBerry: Brace Yourself For An Ugly Quarter
    BBRY Yesterday, 2:46 PM Shock Exchange 151 Comments

    Summary

    • BlackBerry reports fiscal Q4 results before the market opens on Friday.
    • SAF is in free fall, inventory build may drain cash flow and software revenue is not expected to ramp up until fiscal Q1 2016.
    • I am bracing myself for an ugly quarter.
  • Paccar: This Underperforming Stock Looks Like A Good Long-Term Bet
    PCAR Yesterday, 2:35 PM Harsh Singh Chauhan Comment!

    Summary

    • PACCAR has underperformed the broader market in the past year despite delivering consistent growth.
    • However, PACCAR's addressable market is growing at a good pace due to growth in freight tonnage, high fleet utilization, and the need for fleet replacement.
    • By introducing trucks that can carry more freight and have compact dimensions, PACCAR can attract more customers due to fuel efficiency gains and cost savings that it offers.
    • By introducing new natural gas trucks, PACCAR will be able to tap a market that's expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2% for the next 10 years.
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why The Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On The Superjumbos (Part 3)
    BA Yesterday, 2:31 PM Dhierin Bechai 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Boeing 777-9X with belly freight can compete with the Airbus A380ceo.
    • Boeing 777-9X makes an Airbus A380neo necessary.
    • Boeing 777-9X will set a new standard for fuel consumption.
  • Date And Time Is Set For Athersys Phase II Stroke Presentation
    ATHX Yesterday, 2:25 PM Wall Street Titan 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Phase II Stroke Data to be Presented April 19th 8:50 AM in Glasgow, UK.
    • Recent Weakness Represents a Better Entry Point.
    • The Science Behind the Stroke Trial is Substantial.
  • If You Think Facebook's Stock Is A Trap, Keep This In Mind
    FB Yesterday, 2:22 PM Brian Nichols 26 Comments

    Summary

    • FB's valuation has grown to nearly $240 billion, but it might still present a good investment opportunity.
    • The reason lies in its ARPU, and its disconnect from GOOG.
    • New services like video and payments could add an extra $1 each to ARPU, and FB will continue to gain from ad pricing growth.
  • Does Caterpillar Have A Silver Lining?
    CAT Yesterday, 2:18 PM Lior Cohen 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Caterpillar is expected to face several challenges this year including low oil and iron ore prices, lower growth in China’s economy.
    • The company is expected to see a 10% fall in revenue.
    • Despite these perils the company faces, market conditions could improve in the second half of the year, which could benefit its stock.
  • Tsakos Energy Navigation Poised To Capitalize On Surging Rates
    TNP Yesterday, 2:13 PM James Catlin 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Tsakos Energy Ltd. returned to profitability in 2014 with its best results in six years.
    • Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. has 50 vessels in operation with a majority of vessels benefiting from strengthening spot tanker rates.
    • A positive demand outlook combined with a manageable orderbook should continue to benefit Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. going forward.
  • Utilities: End Of An Era
    DUK, SO, NEE Yesterday, 1:58 PM Yen Yoo 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Currently, solar energy makes up 1% of the energy market.
    • However, solar energy has reached cost parity with conventional coal and nuclear energy.
    • Therefore, utilities have to react to the changing industry dynamics.
  • Is Customers Bancorp The Best Pure-Play Regional Bank?
    CUBI Yesterday, 1:45 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • CUBI blows away the competition in a detailed comparable company analysis.
    • Despite this, CUBI shows to still be undervalued from a P/E and P/S standpoint with an average P/B multiple.
    • BUY and hold CUBI for the long haul - this is a super-regional waiting to happen.
  • Windows 10 A Meaningful Catalyst To Microsoft's Consumer Division
    MSFT Yesterday, 1:23 PM Alex Cho 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The number of app developers for Windows 10 across all devices is expected to double in 2015.
    • Microsoft will implement various features from one app to the next in hopes of building a stickier application ecosystem.
    • While the strategy has been used before, it's nice to see Microsoft integrate the marketing function into its apps.
    • I anticipate that Microsoft's consumer segment will recover in FY 2016 due to new products and improved marketing.
  • ACADIA Pharmaceuticals At $30: The Upside Doesn't Justify The Risk
    Editors' Pick ACAD Yesterday, 1:22 PM Edward Vranic, CFA 23 Comments

    Summary

    • ACAD has declined sharply in the last couple of weeks as hopes of a buyout were replaced with the reality of another NDA delay.
    • ACAD has increased nearly $2 billion in market cap since the positive FDA ruling in April 2013 while making little progress in transforming into a commercial company.
    • Analysts rate ACAD a buy but their reports show very aggressive assumptions that don't lead to very high price targets.
    • I believe ACAD could see $15-$20 this year if the overall biotech sector cools off.
  • Why I Am Buying Call Options On OvaScience
    OVAS Yesterday, 1:19 PM Lee Taylor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Long-term fundamentals are strong.
    • Technicals are very bullish.
    • Clinical data is already causing volatility.
    • Substantial short squeeze possibility.
    • Potential bearish insider signals.
  • MannKind Stock Approaching Pre-FDA Approval Price: Is A Bottom Coming?
    MNKD Yesterday, 1:16 PM Robert Sacher 64 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors consider whether MannKind is trading near its bottom.
    • Investors hang their hopes on prescription sales data while early adopters report positive results with Afrezza.
    • A MannKind-inspired catalyst is needed.
  • Rosetta Resources' Cautious Approach Should Help It Weather Weak Crude Oil Pricing
    ROSE Yesterday, 1:15 PM Anup Singh Comment!

    Summary

    • Rosetta Resources has a debt-laden balance sheet with a high debt-equity ratio, which is why the company is reducing production and capital expenses for the next two years.
    • Rosetta will still be profitable since its Eagle Ford assets are profitable at $30 a barrel while Wolfcamp production is competitive even at $45 a barrel.
    • By reducing oil output, Rosetta is doing the right thing as this will weaken the oversupply situation in the oil industry and support better oil prices.
    • Rosetta's declining short float and a strong bottom line growth forecast are indicative of the fact that its moves are expected to bear fruit in the long run.
  • Hennes & Mauritz: The Place To Be In Fashion Retail Sector
    HNNMY Yesterday, 1:10 PM Chris Katje 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Hennes and Mauritz posted strong first quarter with revenue growth of 25% and profit growth of 36%.
    • Shares are down 3% in 2015 despite strong financials and growth plans.
    • Plans to tackle China and the United States should be well received by investors.
  • Why Clean Energy Fuels Can Continue Beating The Market Despite Certain Challenges
    CLNE Yesterday, 1:01 PM Harsh Singh Chauhan 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Clean Energy Fuels' business hasn't been affected by the rapid drop in diesel prices as its customers are still increasing their natural gas fleets.
    • Clean Energy's addressable market should increase due to the conversion of diesel fleets into natural gas fleets.
    • An increase in the spread between crude oil prices and natural gas will aid Clean Energy's long-term growth since the World Bank expects crude oil prices to increase.
    • Clean Energy is burning cash currently, but the company has been able to improve its margins and the debt-equity ratio.
  • Apigee Gambles On Being First Out Of The Gate With Its IPO
    APIC Yesterday, 12:29 PM Khurram Aziz Comment!

    Summary

    • Apigee is a San Jose-based company that makes cloud software.
    • The company offers an "API management and predictive analytics platform."
    • Apigee wants to raise $86 million on a total valuation of $700 million.
    • Apigee represents a shift from traditional business to a more dispersed business model.
  • Coty: Would You Pay This Multiple For Anemic Growth?
    COTY Yesterday, 12:11 PM Nitin Gulati Comment!

    Summary

    • 26 x Forward P/E valuation reflects a lot of euphoria built into the stock.
    • Pretax operating margin for 12 to 13 percent seems realistic given cost cutting program underway.
    • With anemic growth prospects and margin expansion to come in below expectations, Coty shares are destined to disappoint by next year.
  • I Remain Negative On SandRidge Energy
    SD Yesterday, 12:08 PM Economics Fanatic 9 Comments

    Summary

    • SandRidge Energy has declined by 77% since June 2014, but the downside is not over for the stock.
    • Even after relaxation of debt covenants, lower oil prices can trigger further stress to EBITDA and the company's interest coverage ratio.
    • The company's PV-10 to debt is well over 90% at current oil prices, leaving minimal cushion for debt holders.
    • The company is rated B with a negative outlook by S&P and a potential rating downgrade can trigger further stock slide.
  • Sonic: The Best Of The Bunch?
    SONC Yesterday, 11:59 AM Daniel James 1 Comment

    Summary

    • In contrast to many of its competitors, Sonic is delivering excellent growth figures across the board.
    • New ordering technologies should continue to fuel higher traffic and sales.
    • Although the stock is pricey, it seems to be worth the money.