Seeking Alpha
  • Why CBZ Is #7 On Our Research Pipeline
    CBZ Today, 8:26 AM Geoff Gannon Comment!
  • Insider Buys And Sells: Biglari Holdings, FactSet
    BH, ENH, VRTV Today, 7:57 AM Asif Suria Comment!
  • CorMedix Update: Setting A New Standard For Catheter Care
    CRMD Today, 7:07 AM Mark Kroenke 1 Comment

    Summary

    • CorMedix has accomplished a lot in the last 3-4 months, but this progress has not been reflected in the stock price.
    • There are several near term events which could substantially increase the value of CorMedix.
    • The market for Neutrolin reaches well beyond dialysis to any patient using a central venous catheter.
  • Big 5 Is A Winning Stock
    BGFV Today, 5:52 AM Stockerblog Comment!

    Summary

    • The stock is selling at a third of sales.
    • Same-store sales has increased.
    • Yield over 3% and excellent metrics.
    • The company has an active share repurchase program.
  • Asanko Gold: Emerging African Gold Miner
    AKG Today, 3:38 AM Scott Wright Comment!

    Summary

    • West Africa has been an attractive location for gold exploration.
    • The Asanko Gold Mine is one of the world's most exciting development-stage projects.
    • Asanko Gold is an emerging mid-tier gold producer that will attract a lot of investor attention as its mine-build advances.
  • Update: Golden Minerals' Velardena Restart Is Underperforming Expectations
    AUMN Today, 3:01 AM Ben Kramer-Miller Comment!

    Summary

    • Golden Minerals provided an update regarding the restart of its Velardena Project.
    • The performance has been worse than my expectations given the lower ore grades, although I was conservative in my own estimates.
    • Investors should consider Golden Minerals as a silver optionality play, although it is likely losing money in the current market environment.
  • Dry Shipping: Rates Are At Or Near Bottom But I Still Say Avoid
    BALT, DRYS, DSX Today, 2:53 AM The Specialist 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Rates have to be near a bottom since they are below cost for many shippers.
    • Some ships are being taken off line as a result which is bullish.
    • But that supply is an uptick in rates away from coming back. I see little hope for recovery in this industry any time soon.
  • The Ever-Changing World Of Apple
    Editors' Pick AAPL Today, 2:52 AM Posts At Eventide 15 Comments
  • Cal-Maine Foods: Business Nature Limits Its Upside
    CALM Yesterday, 8:39 PM KEMS Research 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The egg business, despite being stable, has limited room for growth.
    • Already the largest player and twice as efficient as the industry, Cal-Maine Foods is unlikely to see further significant improvement.
    • Recent price correction is not a good entry point.
  • Continental Resources Capex Cut And What It Means
    CLR Yesterday, 6:42 PM Casey Hoerth 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Capital spending to be reduced another 41% in 2015.
    • Growth estimates revised down by some eight percentage points.
    • Company hopes to be cash flow neutral by mid-year.
  • Becton, Dickinson & Company: CareFusion Acquisition Suggests A Widening Moat And Increase In Fair Value Estimate
    BDX Yesterday, 6:15 PM Investing Doc 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Shortly after my first look at Becton, Dickinson & Company, the firm announced the acquisition of CareFusion, a company specializing in intravenous infusion pumps and related products.
    • The acquisition essentially gives BD access to CareFusion's highly sticky customers and purview of nearly the entire value chain in intravenous therapy products, from pump to needle.
    • The acquisition looks to have been fairly valued based upon potential synergies, as CareFusion should benefit from Becton Dickinson's international exposure.
    • Though little has changed in BD's standalone operating model, the potential for significant operating synergies with the addition of CareFusion suggests a widening economic moat.
    • I increase my fair value estimate for the company, and while I regret not taking a position earlier when I had the chance, would consider starting a small position.
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt
    SDRL Yesterday, 5:48 PM George Wan 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Many prophesize SDRL's inevitable demise due to its high leverage.
    • In this article, we will take a close look at the quarter-by-quarter timeline of SDRL's contract revenues and debt obligations to determine the grounds for such claims.
    • SDRL is well contracted out for the next two years, and it seems able to adequately service its debt with just existing contracts.
    • SDRL might run into trouble in 2016 and 2017 due to maturing balloon debt payments as well as Capex commitments associated with newbuilds.
    • With oil likely to recover by 2016 as well as mediating actions SDRL can take, these "troubles" hardly indicate an "inevitable" default.
  • NovaGold Resources And Its Elephant-Sized Gold Deposit
    NG Yesterday, 5:42 PM SomaBull 6 Comments

    Summary

    • NovaGold owns 50% of one of the largest open pit gold projects in the world.
    • The Donlin Gold project has significant leverage to the price of gold, and the project is right on the cusp of producing a good return.
    • There is still upside to the project through reduced cap-ex, exploration potential, and the conversion of inferred resources.
    • The permitting process should go smoothly as Donlin Gold is located on private land and it has strong support by surrounding communities.
    • NovaGold is a lower risk way to play the gold sector, but still will provide significant upside leverage to the price of gold.
  • Kick American Science And Engineering To The Curb
    ASEI Yesterday, 5:22 PM Doyle Publishing Ltd. Comment!

    Summary

    • It's hard to know where to begin with our criticism of American Science and Engineering, as there seems to be so much wrong here.
    • Low returns on assets, highly volatile operational results and expensive stock make for a toxic mixture.
    • The recent (small) insider buys are not enough to diminish our anxiety about this stock. We recommend investors dump the shares.
  • Debunking Yet More Misleading Amazon.com Articles
    AMZN Yesterday, 4:12 PM Paulo Santos 38 Comments

    Summary

    • There are several more articles with misleading information regarding Amazon.com.
    • I go over these articles to show just how misleading they are.
    • Indeed, not only are these articles misleading, but reality sometimes stands in direct contrast with them.
  • Lennar: Looking Beyond The Risks And Headwinds
    LEN Yesterday, 3:28 PM Anup Singh 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Lennar shares have dropped in the past month due to weakness in housing starts.
    • A large number of investors are betting against Lennar as its high short ratio suggests.
    • Lennar, however, should get better in the long run on the back of housing market improvements, better pricing, and stronger orders.
    • The company's earnings growth is expected to outpace the industry average.
  • Why Investors Should Consider Capitalizing On Goldcorp's Drop
    GG Yesterday, 3:22 PM Harsh Singh Chauhan 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Goldcorp shares have dropped 18% in 2014, but given the improvement expected in gold pricing, the company's performance can improve.
    • Goldcorp's focus on low-priced assets with reserve growth potential will enable it to improve its margin performance in the future.
    • Goldcorp's strong cash flow position will allow it to continue investing in exploration and infrastructure despite a sizable debt.
  • The Portable InterOil
    IOC Yesterday, 2:45 PM Shareholders Unite 2 Comments

    Summary

    • InterOil, like most oil and gas companies, suffered from the fall in oil price.
    • But unless energy prices stay low for a decade or so, which we think is unlikely, there is little reason for that.
    • The next year will be decisive for InterOil's LNG plans, most notably because of the recertification of its Elk/Antelope resource which underpins it.
    • If that confirms earlier certification, a major hurdle will be taken, setting the company up for a virtuous cycle of discoveries and monetization of its unique acreage.
  • Amazon Is More Than An Internet Retailer
    AMZN Yesterday, 2:28 PM The Panoramic View 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon intentionally tries to downplay a large portion of its market cap - Amazon Web Services.
    • Amazon might be forced to disclose AWS-specific financial metrics as early as 2016.
    • Once released, AWS metrics should change the perception that Amazon is just a profitless internet retailer.
  • With Acquisition Chatter Swirling, Iamgold Looks Attractive At Current Levels
    IAG Yesterday, 2:13 PM Heather Ingrassia 5 Comments

    Summary

    • IAG executives have recently noted that there is a very good chance some type of acquisition-based deal could take place within the next year.
    • There's a chance IAG's share price could see a considerable boost, especially if a bigger mining firm were to make a bid for the company.
    • IAG's share price could also jump on news that the company was making a bid of its own, either for a junior mining company or an asset of significant value.
    • As the direct result of the company's Niobec transaction, overall liquidity jumped from $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, making the notion of a potential transaction near $800 million very viable.
  • Strong Revenue Momentum, Mobile Monetization Make Cheetah A Compelling Long-Term Investment
    CMCM Yesterday, 1:56 PM ONeil Trader Comment!

    Summary

    • Cheetah Mobile is one of the top beneficiaries of the rising use of internet in China.
    • Revenue is growing in triple digits, and mobile revenue growth is particularly strong.
    • Heavy spending might negatively impact margins in the following quarters.
    • The stock is revisiting its IPO price which might be a strong area of support and the high short interest might help establish a bottom.
    • Low forward valuation and significant growth potential make Cheetah a great investment opportunity at current levels.
  • Tsakos Energy: Strong Upside Momentum Will Continue
    TNP Yesterday, 1:31 PM Economics Fanatic 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Tsakos Energy has surged by 40% in the last three months and I expect the upside momentum to continue through 2015.
    • A surge in the spot market rate for tankers is the single biggest upside trigger for Tsakos, and strong oil imports into China will continue in 2015.
    • Tsakos Energy has high exposure to the spot markets, and I expect EBITDA margin expansion in the coming quarters.
    • Tsakos Energy is undervalued on a standalone basis and also on a relative valuation basis; this backs my point that the rally will continue.
  • Cyber Security May Be A Good Sector To Invest In For 2015
    CHKP, CSCO, FTNT Yesterday, 12:37 PM Michael Allison 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Cyber Security stocks should continue to perform very well in 2015.
    • Recent breaches in the security of some major corporations show the need for more vigilance.
    • Three companies that are and will continue to perform well in the cyber security industry.
  • Is Groupon Worth Considering Going Into 2015?
    GRPN Yesterday, 12:25 PM Ayush Singh 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Upbeat quarterly results is a good sign.
    • New acquisitions will drive growth.
    • Expansion into e-commerce will prove to be beneficial in the long run.
    • Groupon looks like a buy going into 2015.
  • ShoreTel: Catalyst That May Spike Share Price
    SHOR Yesterday, 12:22 PM Sergio Heiber 1 Comment

    Summary

    • SHOR is gaining market share in the UC market.
    • The UC market is forecast to grow from $5 billion to $76 billion by 2020.
    • SHOR's scheduled new product launch in April is a game changer.
    • SHOR'S shares are undervalued by over 40%.
  • Cablevision: Customer Losses, AT&T's Threat And Lower Margin Businesses Will Result In Downside
    CVC Yesterday, 12:07 PM Amal Singh 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Customers' preference for Internet TV and bundled satellite TV plans from telecom carriers are big headwinds for Cablevision Systems.
    • AT&T's pending acquisition of DIRECTV can pose a big threat to Cablevision.
    • Cablevision's focus on lower speed tiers and investments to build the Wi-Fi network will keep its bottom line under pressure.
    • Cablevision's earnings are expected to decline in the future.
  • TriMas Corp: A Small Cap With Strong Momentum
    TRS Yesterday, 12:02 PM Winning Strategies Comment!

    Summary

    • TriMas is making smart moves to strengthen its core business.
    • The company is in a strong financial and cash position to invest in growth opportunities.
    • TriMas is a good buy with strong upside potential.
  • Small Cap Energy Stock With 81% Upside
    TGA Yesterday, 11:55 AM Nicholas Bodnar 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Significant margin of safety from intrinsic value.
    • Small cap play in the energy sector.
    • Low debt levels.
  • GasLog: Meaningful Upside And Stable Dividends In 2015
    GLOG Yesterday, 11:37 AM Economics Fanatic 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The recent deal to acquire two LNG carriers from an affiliate of BG Group will add $580 million to the company's revenue backlog and $46 million to annual EBITDA.
    • GasLog has a delivery pipeline in from 2014-16, which ensures that revenue and cash flow growth will continue.
    • Besides the existing LNG carrier delivery pipeline, I expect GasLog to acquire more LNG vessels in 2015.
    • Debt financing of new vessels is not a concern as long as vessels are on a long-term charter that ensures stable cash flow to service debt.
  • Whiting Petroleum: Sold-Off, Unloved, And A Deeply Undervalued Value Play
    WLL Yesterday, 10:23 AM Michael Fitzsimmons 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Whiting has completed the all-stock acquisition of Kodiak Oil & Gas.
    • 2014 year-end proved reserves climbed 29% to 780 million boe, 83% oil.
    • A new slickwater frac completion technique is significantly boosting well productivity.
    • Whiting is severely undervalued (proved reserves @ ~$11/bbl) and offers excellent long-term prospects.
  • Why The Caesars Deal Is Kaput - Et Tu, Brute?
    CZR, CACQ Yesterday, 10:14 AM Anthony Cataldo 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Two law firms have suggested that the Caesars deal is inequitable.
    • Some very crude measures, based only on recent market reactions, suggest that some inequitable conditions might be present in the proposed deal.
    • I do not believe that this deal is doable, at least not in its current form.
    • CZR needs to "sweeten" the deal for CACQ shareholders.
    • If not, that is also okay - CZR can "gamble" on alternative financing options.
  • Community Health Systems: Conduit To Doubling Of EBITDA Comes Into Focus
    CYH Yesterday, 10:09 AM Alpha Gen Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The acquisition and integration of HMA should boost the target firm's margins significantly while substantially boosting their core EBITDA generation.
    • Health care reform is looking more like a boon for the firm as the uncertainty risks subside and a clearer picture of its benefits comes into focus.
    • Synergies from the recent acquisition are likely low given management's penchant for giving out conservative guidance and then boosting them each quarter.
  • GameStop Really Is Blockbuster
    GME Yesterday, 9:51 AM Michael Carter 7 Comments

    Summary

    • GameStop's recent Q3 2014 earnings showed declines in both revenues and net income. Net income was particular impacted by an exit in an overseas market.
    • Despite the ongoing debate, GameStop is following the same path of Blockbuster.
    • GameStop and Blockbuster exhibited five major traits that were nearly identical for each company, respectively, and these are discussed in this article.
    • GameStop's stock should be a lot lower than it is today if it weren't for financial engineering that has taken place the past few years.
    • It's not that GameStop doesn't recognize the problem with used gaming, it just can't find a way to fit in with the overall supply chain.
  • A Big Year Lies Ahead For PolyMet Mining
    PLM Yesterday, 9:10 AM Itinerant 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Permitting for the NorthMet project can be expected to conclude within a year.
    • A DFS update will provide a clearer picture of project economics.
    • Glencore partnership continues to lend important support.
  • The Low Iron Ore Price Is Slowly Killing The 'New' BC Iron
    Editors' Pick BIRNF Yesterday, 8:53 AM The Investment Doctor Comment!

    Summary

    • BC Iron is no longer the highly profitable iron ore miner it was just a few months ago.
    • At the current iron ore price, BCI will barely be breaking even.
    • I thought the acquisition of Iron Ore Holdings was a good move, and this makes BCI a great and cheap call option on the iron ore price.
    • However, fundamental investors should stay away from BCI, as there's no value at all at the current iron ore price.
  • Civeo: Activist Involvement And Upcoming Dividend Increase To Close Excessive Discount
    CVEO Yesterday, 8:33 AM Stanislav Ermilov 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Mass exodus of event-driven investment funds that were betting on REIT conversion earlier led to initial share price collapse of excessive magnitude.
    • Uncertainty regarding the future cash flows of the company in light of lower oil price creates additional opportunity and undervaluation in CVEO shares.
    • Tight control of the board by activist shareholder should support the quick reversal of company's shares.
  • Galmed Pharmaceuticals: A Compelling Trade For Your New Year Portfolio
    GLMD Yesterday, 8:07 AM Alexander Maxwell 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Galmed has multiple upcoming 2015 catalysts that should positively impact shares.
    • Based on Aramchol development in NASH alone, Galmed is substantially undervalued.
    • Galmed's cash position helps to stave off the risk of dilution until well after its primary catalysts are completed.
  • Why F5 Networks Is Set For More Upside
    FFIV Yesterday, 6:16 AM Harsh Singh Chauhan 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Given the rapid growth rate expected in the security solutions market, F5 Networks has a huge addressable market to tap.
    • F5 Networks' new features will improve opportunities to cross sell to existing customers.
    • By replacing solutions of its rivals, F5 Networks is increasing its customer base.
    • F5 Networks' strong cash position will allow it to continue investing in the business for growth.
  • A Short Case For Garmin: Fitness Will Lag
    GRMN Yesterday, 6:15 AM Justin Hess 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Garmin shares are up 20% YTD and Q3 EPS of $0.76 beat consensus estimates of $0.71.
    • Analysts expect Garmin’s Fitness segment to carry the business – Fitness currently makes up ~48% of TEV/EBITDA in 2014 but only makes up 19% of 2014 revenues.
    • The competitive landscape of Fitness and case studies from Garmin’s other segments suggest unrealistic sales and margin growth have been priced in by the market.
    • This holiday season has already put pressure on margins and now is an attractive time to short the stock.
    • Correcting for overzealous forecasts of sales and margin expansion suggest a target price of $41.
  • Dave & Busters: Does It Really Have It All?
    PLAY Yesterday, 6:05 AM Doyle Publishing Ltd. Comment!

    Summary

    • Dave & Buster's seems to have it all: games, sports, food, and drinks. And let’s face it: it looks totally awesome.
    • Dave & Buster's has an awesome concept, and yet it under-performs its peers on almost all metrics we looked at.
    • Against the immortal words of ABBA, we're just not willing to "take a chance on" Dave & Buster's.
  • Tide Is Going Out, But Westlake Is Wearing Shorts
    WLK Yesterday, 6:00 AM Darspal S Mann 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Weak oil prices and strong dollar may have a negative impact on the sector, but fundamentals suggest that Westlake should hold up well.
    • Business should benefit from backward integration, focus on higher margin products, acquisition synergies and a good balance sheet.
    • The stock should benefit as fundamentals hold steady, while the market gets more competitive.
  • Update: Sprott Changes Physical Gold/Silver Trust Agreements So UCITS Qualify
    SPOXF Yesterday, 4:24 AM Ben Kramer-Miller 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Sprott Inc. just changed its policy for the Sprott Physical Gold and Sprott Physical Silver Trusts.
    • The new agreements restrict UCITS from redeeming shares for physical metal, which makes them eligible to own them.
    • I had not anticipated this in any of the articles I've written on Sprott Inc. or on either of the trusts.
    • This could boost sales of the trust among UCITS which will be eligible to purchase shares once the agreement changes, and this could increase Sprott's AUM.
  • Update: Goldrock's Acquisition Of Chaparral Gold Is In Jeopardy
    CRRGF Yesterday, 4:05 AM Ben Kramer-Miller Comment!

    Summary

    • Chaparral Gold announced that there could be issues relating Goldrock's acquisition.
    • This is an unexpected development.
    • Even if the deal doesn't go through Chaparral has a negative NEV, and they are worth buying at current levels.
  • Update: True Gold Draws Down $20.7 Million From Its Project Financing Agreement With Franco-Nevada And Sandstorm Gold
    RVREF Yesterday, 3:41 AM Ben Kramer-Miller Comment!

    Summary

    • True Gold drew down another $20.7 million from its financing facility created by Franco-Nevada and Sandstorm Gold, bringing the total to $57.7 million.
    • This is in line with expectations.
    • This is evidence of progress, but I am still concerned about the company's issues in Burkina Faso and the vague mention of the negative Dec. 9th press release.
  • Kennady Diamonds Sample Results Lift Investor Confidence
    KDIAF Yesterday, 3:39 AM Christopher De Sousa Comment!

    Summary

    • Kennady Diamonds' recent Kelvin mini-bulk sample returned diamond grades of 2.59 carats per tonne.
    • Investors should expect the release of a pre-feasibility study next year for Kennady North.
    • A 500 to 700 tonne bulk sample program is prepared to start early next year, along with extensive drilling at MZ and Doyle.
  • BP Investing In The Massive Potential Of Iraq's Super Field
    BP Yesterday, 1:55 AM Callum Turcan 19 Comments

    Summary

    • The ongoing conflict with the Islamic State and low oil prices aside, BP, CNPC, and Iraq plan to keep developing the massive Rumaila oil field.
    • Current estimates assume that the field initially had 70 billion barrels of oil in place, 14 billion of which have already been pumped out.
    • By 2020, the consortium plans to boost output from the field by 800,000 bo/d to 2.1 million bo/d.
    • Conservative estimates point towards the consortium extracting at least 20 billion more barrels of crude from the Rumaila oil field.
  • Update: AmpliPhi Is Making Important Moves To Advance Its Anti-Infective Pipeline
    APHB Fri, Dec. 26, 11:55 PM Trevor Lowenthal 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Earlier this week, AmpliPhi announced that a reverse split has been authorized by majority vote of current shareholders. A reverse split should take effect sometime before June 30, 2015.
    • I reiterate my bull thesis on AmpliPhi. Although it was mistimed, I remain confident that the company is positioned for future growth.
    • As expected, AmpliPhi remains on course to advance its anti-infective programs to human clinical trials in early 2015.
  • No Excuses: Falling Gasoline Prices Are Impacting Tesla's Sales
    TSLA Fri, Dec. 26, 7:19 PM Anton Wahlman 295 Comments

    Summary

    • Falling gasoline prices are unequivocally bad for Tesla sales right now, all other things equal.
    • Even rich people prefer to justify a $100,000 purchase by saying they’re saving money somewhere in the equation.
    • The direct variable cost per mile of driving electric remains 2.5x cheaper than gasoline at $2.50, but by that argument, 100% of car sales would already have been electric.
    • There is more to the total factor cost of owning a car than simply the variable cost of fuel, including reliability and flexibility.
    • The good news for Tesla is that if gasoline prices increase, it would be 100% good news: No excuses apply to both directions.
  • Boeing Is 12% Undervalued
    BA Fri, Dec. 26, 5:19 PM Hannes Sverrisson 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Boeing is 12% undervalued based on current market price of $131.
    • Boeing stock is valued at $147 by using the free cash flow to firm (FCFF) valuation method.
    • Is the positive news about Boeing reflected in the value?
  • Immunomedics: Under-Followed Company With Robust Pipeline And Huge Growth Potential
    IMMU Fri, Dec. 26, 5:17 PM Bridging the Gap 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Immunomedics has 13 drugs in its pipeline, 9 of which are in Phase II or Phase III trials.
    • Epratuzumab, in Phase III trials, should be accepted by the FDA in early 2015, and should support the continued development of Immunomedics's other drugs through the cash flow it generates.
    • Immunomedics's two ADCs are further along in clinical trials than most other ADCs in development, and can easily capture the growth potential of the ADC market.
    • Y-clivatuzumab tetraxetan has gotten both orphan drug designation and fast track status by the FDA and could be approved for commercial use in a relatively short amount of time.
    • The company's large number of drugs in its pipeline should support growth in the long-term.