Seeking Alpha
  • Looking Back, Sprint's Preliminary Numbers Are Not A Good Sign For Investors
    S Today, 1:00 PM Brian Nichols 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Initially, Sprint's 30,000 postpaid net adds in Q4 was seen as a positive, a sign that its promotions are working to attract new subs.
    • But, now that investors know how well iPhones sold in Q4, and the performance of Sprint's competitors, 30,000 looks like a complete flop.
    • Given Sprint's very promotional iPhone activity, combined with the new subs volume it needs to counter declines in free cash flow, it might be time for investors to worry.
  • IPO Report: Tracon Pharmaceuticals
    TCON Today, 12:58 PM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Therapeutics for cancer, age-related macular degeneration and fibrotic diseases.
    • Collaborators include National Cancer Institute. Top line data for Phase 2 trials expected end of '15 and mid '16.
    • Relatively low price-to-book of 2.4. Relatively low cash burn rate: P/E ratio of -27. Insiders may purchase $8.2mm, 17.4%.
  • Analyzing Bank Of America: Part 2 - Consumer Real Estate Services
    BAC Today, 12:39 PM Nicholas P. Cheer Comment!

    Summary

    • CRES and its legacy portfolio have been the source of many of the challenges at Bank of America for some time.
    • While the segment continues to lose money in the most recent quarter, trends are moving in the right direction.
    • Continued reductions in litigation expense, and a low interest rate environment bode well for CRES going forward.
  • TJX Companies: A Great Investment In A Choppy Retail Environment
    TJX Today, 12:39 PM Brian Wu Comment!

    Summary

    • The overall retail outlook in 2015 does not look too good.
    • TJX Companies and Ross Stores have unique operating models that allow them to take advantage of both good and poor economic cycles.
    • Investors interested in the retail sector should include shares of the two companies in their portfolios to give them a measure of downside protection.
  • Why Marathon Petroleum Is The Most Attractive Refiner
    MPC Today, 12:37 PM Quantified Alpha 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Refiners benefit from lower oil prices as their main input cost is crude, whereas the price they charge at the pump tends to be "sticky."
    • Each of three refiners look very undervalued on a revenue, earnings, book, and free cash flow basis relative to the industry group and sector averages.
    • Each of the three refiners are attractive, but we give a slight edge to Marathon Petroleum based off the moderate company insider selling seen in Valero and Tesoro.
  • Waste Connections: Turning Trash Into Cash
    WCN Today, 12:17 PM Derastone Comment!

    Summary

    • Further acquisitions in Alabama and in North Dakota will provide additional building blocks to increase activity in E&P division, leading to further long-term margin expansion.
    • WCN could trade at $53 (+20% upside) within the next 12 months.
    • Trading multiples spreads (P/E and EV/EBITDA) between WCN and its main competitors WM and RSG will expand during the year given differing EPS growth prospects.
    • We expect the resumption of the share-repurchase program once WCN’s Net Debt / EBITDA ratio dips below the 2.3x-2.1x band (currently at 2.7x).
  • Protalex Aiming At Rheumatoid Arthritis Market With A Much Cheaper Price Tag
    PRTX Today, 12:13 PM EricFinance 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The top 3 bestselling drugs in 2013 were Abbvie's Humira, Amgen's Enbrel, and Johnson & Johnson's Remicade, all for rheumatoid arthritis [RA].
    • Many companies have tried to compete with the Big Three in the RA market, but only one has made it to blockbuster status.
    • Other RA drugs have failed to directly compete with the Big Three mainly because they are second-line therapies.
    • Protalex has an RA candidate, PRTX-100, with similar efficacy results to the Big Three so far that is estimated at 100x cheaper, with a chance of breaking into first-line.
    • Phase 2 results some time in 2015 will determine which way the stock moves.
  • Regeneron Shows Biotech Investors Have Left Their Wildcatting Days
    REGN Today, 12:12 PM Dana Blankenhorn 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Biotech has been a high-risk high-reward business like oil wildcatting was a generation ago.
    • The best investments today have multiple drugs in the market and in development.
    • Regneneron is to these companies what Schlumberger was to the oil patch.
  • Lifeway Foods Is A New Niche In Health Food
    LWAY Today, 12:11 PM Sergio Heiber 3 Comments

    Summary

    • LWAY has began a national campaign.
    • Probiatic food is gaining market attention.
    • Profits will rise as milk prices are in a downturn.
  • Rambus: Does It Stop At Your Destination?
    RMBS Today, 12:10 PM Technology Investing 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Rambus today is not the parasitic patent troll of years past.
    • Although 2015 revenue projections were disappointing, 2016 promises to be a "magic" year.
    • Rambus has licensing agreements for their security technology with Qualcomm and Cisco.
  • NetScout: The Perfect Preamble For A Tech Growth Story
    NTCT Today, 12:04 PM Celan Bryant 1 Comment

    Summary

    • NetScout is a market leader in a hot and growing industry driven by regulatory change and the rise of cyber threats.
    • In October, NetScout Systems announced its intention to acquire Danaher's communications business in an all stock transaction valued at $2.4 billion.
    • Investors reacted by selling the stock even though the deal is expected to be accretive within one year.
    • On both a GAAP and non-GAAP pro-forma basis the stock is undervalued. Investors should view this dip as a buying opportunity.
  • Rite Aid Sets Itself Up For A Big Fiscal Q4
    RAD Today, 11:55 AM Brian Nichols 4 Comments

    Summary

    • RAD's last two months of same store sales growth track well above what Wall Street expects for fiscal Q4.
    • If February is strong, RAD should easily beat top-line expectations for both Q4 and fiscal 2015.
    • With RAD's McKesson supply issues being worked out, RAD's margins should improve further, and its stock go higher.
  • Consider Shorting The Shake Shack Now
    SHAK Today, 11:42 AM APBK Capital 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Shake Shack is drastically overvalued after opening for trade from its IPO.
    • Using very conservative EBITDA and P/E valuation metrics Shake Shack is an ideal candidate to short.
    • It may take some time for the hype to fade, but when it does stock price will plummet.
  • Envision Healthcare: A Great Play On Increased Physician Demand
    EVHC Today, 11:35 AM Real Estater Comment!

    Summary

    • Hospitals will be increasingly reliant on third party expertise that Envision can provide.
    • Envision benefits from scale through geographic and service diversity.
    • EmCare is a very high growth business with significant potential for M&A growth.
  • 3 Biotech Stocks You Won't Want To Miss In 2015
    OMED, STML, VSTM Today, 11:30 AM BPD Research Comment!

    Summary

    • 3 "pure-play" cancer stem cell stocks have been forgotten by investors.
    • Therapies targeting CSCs address the failures of current treatments.
    • Significant clinical catalysts in 2015 could drive substantial value increases.
    • Recently bulked up bank accounts reduce financial and dilution risk.
  • How Canadian Banking Stocks May Act As A Defensive Play During Rough Periods
    BAC, BMO, C Today, 11:28 AM Michael Grogan 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Canadian banks performed relatively well during the financial crisis for the period 2008-2011.
    • The Capital Asset Pricing Model shows that American banks have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past four years when risk appetite has increased.
    • I see Canadian banks as proving to be a good play during periods of downturn, given less exposure to credit risk due to more prudent lending regulations.
  • Patience With EMC Has Yet To Pay Off
    Editors' Pick EMC Today, 11:06 AM Stephen Simpson, CFA 7 Comments

    Summary

    • EMC's fourth quarter was on target, but guidance for the next year included forex headwinds, VCE dilution, and not much optimism on high-end storage systems.
    • Management continues to push VMware as integral to the company's needs in its evolution toward developing increasing integrated products that go beyond its legacy storage capabilities.
    • EMC shares continue to look undervalued on the basis of mid-single digit FCF growth, but EMC management must demonstrate that its targeted growth businesses are indeed growing as expected.
  • Resonant: A Disruptive Technology That Could Take Over The RF Filter Industry
    RESN Today, 11:05 AM Bridging the Gap 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Resonant has developed a technology that could replace BAW filters in mobile phones with a cheaper SAW filter that has the same performance.
    • This new technology is set to release by the end of 2015, if not sooner, and should spur huge growth from the company when it does.
    • The company also is in the process of creating tunable filters. They believe that one of their tunable filters could replace four modern day ones.
    • These two products have the potential to allow Resonant to develop a large customer base in the multi-billion dollar RF filter industry.
    • If everything works out for the company, Resonant's fair value could be multiples of its current value.
  • Shaking Windows And Rattling Walls At Mattel
    MAT Today, 10:59 AM Kevin Donovan Comment!

    Summary

    • What Bob Dylan has to say to Barbie.
    • Big 4Q miss is big blow.
    • ...but dividend declaration is heartening.
  • Update: Columbus McKinnon Q3 FY2015 Earnings
    CMCO Today, 10:35 AM Mark Lin Comment!

    Summary

    • Q3 FY2015 results indicate that Columbus McKinnon is on track in meeting most of its long term objectives.
    • Refinancing of debt gives Columbus McKinnon more flexibility in optimizing its capital structure.
    • Columbus McKinnon's M&A pipeline is robust with sufficient debt headroom to finance future acquisitions.
  • Why I'm Long Mattel
    MAT Today, 10:33 AM Manuel A. Salceda 6 Comments

    Summary

    • 2014 was a bad year in every front except for Disney princesses and Frozen, but the future seems brighter than the present.
    • Even though MAT is not growing at such an amazing pace, during the last decade it has grown gross sales from 5 billion to more than 7 billion.
    • The fears about Barbie losing momentum and relevance are overblown.
    • The fears about Fisher-Price losing momentum and relevance are more warranted.
  • Bank Of America - I'm Pounding The Table After The Fed Catalyst
    BAC Today, 10:19 AM Markos Kaminis 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Bank of America just marked low ground after the Fed indicated it had its eye on international events, or what is driving the strong dollar and low interest rates.
    • Banks have been pressured by low interest rates where expectations were for rising rates.
    • Bank of America also dropped sharply recently after reporting a contracted net interest margin.
    • Deeply valued, Bank of America stands to benefit over the long term from U.S. economic strength, future interest rate rise and an eventual change in relative dollar value.
  • McDonald's Buys A Clue
    MCD Today, 9:54 AM Dana Blankenhorn 9 Comments

    Summary

    • McDonald's replaced CEO Don Thompson within 24 hours of my slamming them.
    • The new guy, Steve Easterbrook, is a Brit who thrives on confronting the company's adversaries.
    • It will take several quarters to engineer a turnaround. Wait for the stock to fall before buying in.
  • DuSolo Fumbles On Compliance But Fundamentals Remain Strong
    ELGSF Today, 9:40 AM Point Of Return Comment!

    Summary

    • As a result of a review by the British Columbia Securities Commission (“BCSC”), DuSolo issued a news release last night to clarify two of its previous disclosures.
    • Secured contract with large Brazilian soybean producer that intends to purchase up to 40,000 tonnes of 18% DANF, for total proceeds of $4.4-million once all sales have been fully executed.
    • The agro-minerals opportunity in Brazil is massive, specifically in the Cerrado. There is minimal processing involved to produce DANF, translating to a low-cost high-margin business.
    • Flagship Bomfim project has an initial NI 43-101 resource, just went into production, management is continuing to drill highly-promising targets, and DuSolo benefits from mature marketplace with no local competition.
    • Now that production has commenced and the company is well financed, with ~$6.5 million in the bank, the project has been severely de-risked, creating a very compelling value proposition.
  • One Word Sums Up Google's Problem
    Editors' Pick GOOG, GOOGL Today, 9:19 AM Dana Blankenhorn 75 Comments

    Summary

    • Facebook is killing Google for stickiness.
    • Google is second in lots of areas, first only in searches that last for seconds.
    • Google's ownership structure frustrates efforts at reform.
  • Worries About Europe And Energy Seem To Weigh On Parker-Hannifin
    PH Today, 9:16 AM Stephen Simpson, CFA Comment!

    Summary

    • Parker-Hannifin reported a mixed set of numbers with in-line revenue growth, better corporate expense reductions, but disappointing segment earnings and lower guidance.
    • Parker-Hannifin's exposure to oil/gas seems very manageable, but widespread weakness in Europe is a bigger threat despite an improving commercial aerospace outlook.
    • If Parker-Hannifin can grow at a mid-single digit rate, the shares look undervalued today.
  • General Mills Is On The Road To Improving Its Business Model
    GIS Today, 9:15 AM Investing Tricks 1 Comment

    Summary

    • General Mills has introduced an extensive cost-cutting program that will involve streamlining unnecessary operations and result in significant cost savings.
    • The shutdown of manufacturing facilities in Ontario and New Albany should generate annual cost savings of more than $400 million in fiscal year 2015.
    • With the rising obesity issues in the United States people are becoming more health conscious and are increasingly shifting towards healthier food.
    • Moreover, employing the multiple based valuation method the stock looks shows that the relatively is undervalued and offers a potential return of nearly 2.68%.
  • Amazon Can Make Money When It Wants
    AMZN Today, 9:14 AM Dana Blankenhorn 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon is targeting the 45-64 market with Prime, and succeeding.
    • Sales blew past Target last year and should pass Kroger this coming year.
    • Operating cash flow grew 25%, despite the disaster that was the Fire Phone.
  • Lake Shore Gold To Benefit From 144 Gap And Shaky Financial Markets
    LSG Today, 9:10 AM Christopher De Sousa Comment!

    Summary

    • Recent drill results at the 144 Gap zone returned high-grade gold intercepts.
    • Lake Shore Gold plans 90,000m of surface and underground drilling at 144 Gap this year.
    • Cash and bullion could surge if gold prices continue to rise on global economic uncertainty.
  • IPO Preview: Spark Therapeutics
    ONCE Today, 9:02 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Leader in the field of gene therapy, seeking to transform the lives of patients suffering from debilitating genetic diseases by developing one-time, life-altering treatments.
    • 1st product candidate targets rare blinding conditions. Phase 3 results 2nd half of '15.
    • Pfizer collaboration for hemophilia B.
  • Update: Costco Prioritizes Increasing Shareholder Returns
    COST Today, 8:57 AM AH Research 4 Comments

    Summary

    • COST has maintained quarterly dividend payments of $0.355 per share.
    • It also announced a special dividend of $5 per share.
    • The company can easily finance its special dividend through cash and debt.
  • Coach Mirrors Starbucks: A Restructuring Déjà Vu
    COH Today, 8:36 AM Richard Lewis 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Coach's challenges and opportunities mirror those of Starbucks circa 2008.
    • An appropriate historical context relieves some of the uncertainties surrounding Coach.
    • History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.
  • Why I Like Manchester United For The Long Term
    MANU Today, 8:35 AM Edward Frost 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Improved performance of the first team means Champions League participation is likely next season.
    • New and improved sponsorship deals with Adidas and General Motors' Chevrolet will boost future revenues.
    • Matchday revenue provides a steady stream of income from 99% average attendance at Old Trafford for the last 17 years.
  • 96 Marijuana Stocks For Your Do Not 'Buy And Hold' List
    ACGX, ACOL, AERO Today, 8:30 AM Anthony Cataldo 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Prior works are referenced and linked – I suspect that I have the vast majority of or all marijuana stocks accessing capital in the U.S. market at N=96.
    • This article focuses on short-term liquidity needs in the form of the firms and their current ratio or working capital position – predictors of near-term financial stress.
    • Do not focus on any other fundamentals – they are not relevant for this “emerging” sector or segment of the economy.
    • Adopting my focus will assist you in capital preservation, first, and looking for abnormally high returns generated from event dates, second.
    • If a firm has a negative working capital position or a current ratio below 1.0, ask where cash flows will come from to finance operations –if you buy their stock,.
  • Universal, Disney And Paramount Among Studios Betting Big On Super Bowl Ads
    CMCSA, DIS, FOXA Today, 8:30 AM The Entertainment Oracle Comment!

    Summary

    • Universal, Disney, Paramount, Lions Gate and Fox are the five major studios expected to purchase airtime during this weekend’s Super Bowl.
    • Many studios are banking on reaching a solid cross-section of their potential audiences by promoting a tentpole pic during a prime viewing window.
    • The cost for advertising during the Super Bowl this year is around $4.5 million for a 30 second ad… but with over 100 million likely viewers it’s usually worth the price.
  • Misunderstood And Undervalued: Enterprise Inns
    ETINY Today, 8:23 AM Value Vista UK Comment!

    Summary

    • Enterprise Inns trades at a cheap valuation given the highly leveraged nature of the balance sheet.
    • Based on an analysis of comparable companies, the market does not appear to be valuing Enterprise's pub estate accurately.
    • With income at the underlying pubs growing, Enterprise Inns provides a great way to play the UK recovery with downside protected by the value of the underlying pub real estate.
  • 5 Reasons Why Phillips 66 Had A Blowout Quarter
    PSX Today, 8:14 AM Albert Alfonso 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Phillips 66 crushes earnings estimates for Q4 2014.
    • The company was not at all impacted by lower crude oil prices.
    • Phillips 66 is a sure keeper for long-term focused investors.
  • Update: Kennametal Q2 FY2015 Earnings
    KMT Today, 8:14 AM Mark Lin Comment!

    Summary

    • Kennametal's quarterly adjusted EPS fell short of consensus estimates and its share price has declined by a further 5% since my original article in December 2014.
    • I have confidence in Kennametal's restructuring plans, given its past track record.
    • Capital allocation initiatives such as divestitures, debt reduction and return of capital will be potential catalysts.
    • Investors taking a long term view will find value in Kennametal at current prices.
  • VF Corp Will Benefit From Cotton Prices And A Strong Dollar
    VFC Today, 7:59 AM Josh Arnold 2 Comments

    Summary

    • VFC has been an unbelievable success story in the past few years.
    • The company's international sourcing will benefit from the stronger dollar, boosting margins.
    • I think VFC will see upside to its $3.50 EPS estimate for this year and the stock should trade up to $80.
  • Update: Royal Gold Reports Rising Revenues, Operating Profits In Q2 2015
    RGLD Today, 7:36 AM Ben Kramer-Miller Comment!

    Summary

    • Royal Gold's revenue rose to $61.3 million in the quarter as production from Mt. Milligan grew.
    • This isn't surprising.
    • Shares have risen considerably since I became bullish in spite of a relatively flat gold price, but I'm still accumulating on weakness.
  • Buy Facebook - Cramer's Mad Money (1/29/15)
    TSLA, NFLX, AMZN Today, 7:27 AM SA Editor Mohit Manghnani 3 Comments

    Summary

    • What is worrying investors?
    • McDonald's new CEO can bring positive change.
    • Mark Zuckerberg is King Midas.
    • David Demshur knows where oil prices will go.
    • Twitter needs a management change.
  • Update: Starcore International Acquires Creston Moly For $2 Million Out Of Bankruptcy
    SHVLF Today, 7:25 AM Ben Kramer-Miller Comment!

    Summary

    • Starcore international acquired Creston Moly for $2 million out of bankruptcy.
    • This is an extremely unusual development given the size of the project and its exposure to copper and molybdenum.
    • While unusual this acquisition has the potential to pay off tremendously given the enormity of the El Creston Project.
  • Mylan Faces Short-Term News Flow And Reputational Risk
    MYL Today, 7:15 AM Paulo Santos 2 Comments

    Summary

    • A recent event in Europe has implications for Mylan.
    • The event can create negative news flow and reputational risk.
    • The event is likely to have a small direct impact on Mylan's revenues and profits. But the impact could spread and it could also make for negative news.
  • Visionary Technology From Dolby
    DLB Today, 7:09 AM Ugly Duckling Comment!

    Summary

    • Investors reacted to earnings with negativity and have created a buying opportunity.
    • The company has managed to replace optical revenues with new product offerings.
    • The shift from optical content to streaming content is a plus for the company.
  • Shake Shack - Should You Buy Into The IPO Hype?
    SHAK Today, 7:02 AM Robert Petti 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Shake Shack IPOes Friday at a $675 million valuation.
    • The company plans to grow 6x over the coming years.
    • The PE rate is high but the long term return looks good.
  • Update: Northern Star Provides More Clarity On Its Stellar Quarter
    NESRF Today, 6:27 AM The Investment Doctor Comment!

    Summary

    • Northern Star now has more than A$100M in cash and will repay its entire bank debt within the next few months.
    • This is a very nice surprise and I hope the company’s extensive drill program will extend the mine lives.
    • The Plutonic and Paulsens mine are still having a very high AISC and I’d like to see a solution.
    • The investment thesis will be updated if the mine lives will be extended as the NPV will increase.
  • Lorillard: Waiting To Collect Full Merger Value
    LO Today, 6:25 AM Stone Fox Capital 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Lorillard and Reynolds American shareholders approved the merger.
    • Without buyback support, Lorillard is now mostly an arbitrage play until the merger closes.
    • FTC risk appears minimal, allowing investors to collect the arb. spread over the next few months when the deal closes.
  • Rexford's Equity Issuance Is Bullish For Long-Term Shareholders
    Editors' Pick REXR Today, 6:15 AM Weighing Machine Comment!

    Summary

    • Rexford shares sold off following the announcement of a secondary offering.
    • Issuing shares at 20x trailing FFO to fund further property acquisitions is likely to be accretive to AFFO per share.
    • With a conservative balance sheet (35% debt-to-capital) and a solid acquisition pipeline, Rexford should be able to generate mid-to-high teens returns for shareholders.
  • Update: Bradken Announces It Has Ended The Negotiations With The PE Funds
    BRKNF Today, 5:41 AM The Investment Doctor Comment!

    Summary

    • Bradken says the PE partners aren’t in a position to make a binding offer to acquire the company and the negotiations have ceased.
    • This is a negative surprise, but I do think the sell-off is overdone.
    • The investment thesis remains valid, I still believe there’s value in Bradken’s shares.
  • Shaking Up The Shack
    SHAK Today, 5:39 AM IPO Candy 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Everyone is in love with Shake Shack and investors are bidding up the IPO aggressively.
    • We think that cooler heads might decide not to chase this deal - our IV suggests $17/share.
    • This note considers competition, margin limitations and even changes in eating habits which could give SHAK investors some indigestion.