Seeking Alpha
  • Intuit: The Shopify And BigCommerce Partnerships
    INTU Today, 12:27 PM Lester Goh Comment!

    Summary

    • Intuit recently made several announcements detailing their new partnerships with Shopify and BigCommerce.
    • These partnerships are a boon to Intuit, providing the company with an expanding user base, cross-selling opportunities and increased recognition.
    • I reiterate my slightly-bullish stance.
  • Zacks' Bull Of The Day: Ryman Hospitality
    RHP Today, 12:20 PM Zacks Investment Research Comment!
  • Under Armour: Wall Street Firms Explain Why It's Best To Avoid The Stock
    UA Today, 12:09 PM Brian Nichols 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Several Wall Street firms upgraded or issued higher price targets for UA over the last couple weeks.
    • Much of this upside is based on UA's prospects in the basketball shoe market.
    • UA's potential in basketball shoes is likely overestimated.
    • UA's upside is little, downside much larger.
  • Cloud Peak Energy: Any Newcastle Rebound Should Significantly Improve Its Outlook
    CLD Today, 12:00 PM Elephant Analytics Comment!

    Summary

    • Cloud Peak is betting heavily on the export markets for its coal.
    • It costs CLD roughly $50 per ton to get its coal to the ships, which means that it breaks even at near $80 per ton Newcastle pricing now.
    • The company will suffer significant losses on export coal at current prices, but can handle those losses since it has $69 million in annual payments ending after 2015.
    • At $6 per share, Cloud Peak's valuation is not pricing in a recovery in Newcastle coal.
    • Each $10 increase in Newcastle coal could improve its estimated value by $4 per share. Recovery will be slowed if the US dollar remains strong.
  • Goldman Sachs' Buyback Score Card
    GS Today, 11:45 AM Josh Arnold 1 Comment

    Summary

    • GS has spent very heavily since the financial crisis to repurchase shares.
    • The company has managed to reduce its float significantly in recent years.
    • But the cost of doing so has been great.
  • The Brazilian Stock Market Remains A Wild Ride, But There's A Silver Lining
    ERJ Today, 11:36 AM Conrado Foglio Bonda Comment!

    Summary

    • Government is facing tough opposition both in Congress and from an important part of the population.
    • Corruption scandals in Petrobras and low commodity prices provide more and more uncertainty.
    • The Monetary Policy Committee increased interest rates to 12.75% and the market is discounting further increases.
    • There's a particular company that can ride these waves and outperform the BOVESPA Index: Embraer.
  • CTPartners: Can Activists Fix Its Image Problem?
    CTP Today, 11:36 AM Marshall Hargrave Comment!

    Summary

    • Shares of CTP are off more than 80% in just the last four months.
    • But is the news of sexual discrimination overblown?
    • Either way, it now has an image problem that is best addressed with a buyout.
  • AUXILIO: Fundamentals Remain Strong With Growth On The Way
    AUXO Today, 11:31 AM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • AUXO's financial statements confirmed the strong fundamentals that were expected by bulls.
    • AUXO Q4 CC guided 20% FY top-line growth that should have bulls excited for the future.
    • AUXO also announced another acquisition that should create a third revenue segment while furthering the value-prop of the AUXO ecosystem.
    • AUXO heads into 2015 with integration plans, ecosystem development plans, and with the look of a serious multi-year bull story.
    • Continue to remain long AUXO with a long-term hold expectation.
  • Dycom Industries: Not Just A One Quarter Pop
    DY Today, 11:16 AM Darspal S Mann Comment!

    Summary

    • Fundamentals strong, benefiting from fiber rollout.
    • Strong backlog, high leverage and improving productivity points to improving top and bottom line over the coming quarters.
    • Besides the earnings growth, the stock should benefit from buyback and debt repayments.
  • Cal-Maine Foods: Good Times Continue, I Am Cautious Amidst Emerging Headwinds
    CALM Today, 11:14 AM The Value Investor Comment!

    Summary

    • Cal-Maine Foods reports solid results amidst continued strong egg prices and lower feed costs.
    • These good operating conditions allow the company to post high operating margins, a situation which is not sustainable in the long run.
    • With hen supply increasing and regulation creating some uncertainty, there is potential for margins to come under pressure later this year.
    • Given these potential headwinds I would be a buyer in the low thirties, based on a fair multiple on "average" earnings.
  • Synutra International, An Undervalued Opportunity In The Chinese Infant Formula Market
    SYUT Today, 11:12 AM Dutch Trader 1 Comment

    Summary

    • An Undervalued Opportunity In The Chinese Infant Formula Market.
    • Synutra's Milk Powder Plant In France Will Be A Game Changer.
    • Stock Price Could Easily Be A Double Going Forward.
  • Bank Of America: Still Disappointing Shareholders, But For How Much Longer?
    BAC Today, 11:10 AM Regarded Solutions 19 Comments

    Summary

    • The share price of BAC has continued to erode well below book value.
    • The bank sort of passed the stress test, but the results still sent shareholders fleeing.
    • Is this what is meant when "they" say "buy when others are fearful"?
  • Microsoft: Browser Benefits And The Age Of Windows 10
    MSFT Today, 11:04 AM Orange Peel Investments 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Don't underestimate the importance of a good web browser.
    • Although they don't directly drive revenue, they are essential supplemental ecosystem pieces.
    • Microsoft is making a great move ditching Internet Explorer. It should improve user experience, search engine market share, and (residually) ad revenue.
  • Make No Mistake, Johnson & Johnson's Revenues Will Drop This Year
    JNJ Today, 11:03 AM Sarfaraz A. Khan 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The company is facing a major threat from strengthening dollar.
    • Competition is heating up, particularly from Gilead.
    • Is this a buying opportunity?
  • Delta Natural Gas: Approaching 52-Week Lows, This Small Natural Gas Utility Deserves A Look
    DGAS Today, 11:02 AM ValueArtifex Comment!

    Summary

    • With no analyst coverage, a dividend yield over 4% and trading near 52 week lows, Delta Natural Gas deserves a look from income oriented investors.
    • Operating in a stable and predictable business, shares of Delta Natural Gas offer attractive relative prospects as shares of other utilities become increasingly expensive.
    • The company's small size and recent deal activity in the utility sector indicates investors enjoy an embedded catalyst of a potential acquisition by a larger multi-state utility at a premium.
  • Verisign: .Com & .Net Monopolies Offer High-Single Digit FCF Yield And Double-Digit Growth
    Editors' Pick VRSN Today, 11:00 AM Oligopoly Investor 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Durable .com and .net monopolies.
    • Continued revenue growth drivers with high variable contribution.
    • FCF greater than earnings.
    • Efficient capital management.
    • Potential CPI inflator upon .com renewal.
  • Petrobas President Rouseff: 'I Am Certain Petrobras Will Report Earnings Before The End Of April'
    PBR Today, 10:59 AM Giovanni DiMauro 4 Comments

    Summary

    • President Rouseff tells Bloomberg Petrobras will report audited earnings by the end of April.
    • Petrobras obtains $3.5 Billion in financing for China Development Bank.
    • Share price is crossing the 50 day moving average on large early morning volume.
  • National Penn Bancshares Offers A Range Bound 4% Yielding Carry-Trade
    NPBC Today, 10:51 AM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • NPBC's lack of growth has created a need for the bank to pay a high dividend on shares.
    • NPBC has been range bound trading with a soft positive slope line for a while now creating a low beta and stable equity.
    • NPBC also has very little in the way of expectations priced into its valuation which could lead to upside for the equity if EPS growth continues.
    • I make the argument that NPBC should be tested against other high yielding regionals within a portfolio based on its easy yield carry.
  • Opko's Frost Spearheads Another Merger, This Time Tiger Media
    IDI Today, 10:48 AM EricFinance 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Opko Chairman and CEO Dr. Phillip Frost is behind another Asian merger less than one week after completing his last one in Israel.
    • The deal merges Tiger Media with Interactive Data, moving the combined company to Delaware from China, alongside a 1:5 reverse stock split.
    • Frost owns 35% of the company, more if revenue milestones are achieved.
    • Plans for the company are the big question – will it be synergistic, or is it primarily to strengthen Interactive Data?
  • In Search Of The Next Chipotle
    CMG Today, 10:31 AM Daniel Jones 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Every investor dreams of finding the restaurant chain that will become the next Chipotle.
    • While it's impossible to say for sure which player in the space will rise to prestige, two metrics could help improve your chances of finding a great prospect.
    • All said, each company examined seems to be in a nice spot but one for sure stands out above the rest.
  • HCC Insurance Holdings: A Well Diversified Specialty Insurer Returning Most Of Its Income To Shareholders
    HCC Today, 10:30 AM Junius Comment!

    Summary

    • HCC Insurance Holdings trades at 14.2 times its expected 2015 earnings.
    • The company has delivered consistently strong underwriting profits. The combined ratio for FY 2014 was 82.1%.
    • Management intends to return 100% of net income to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases.
  • 500.com: All Bets Are Off
    Editors' Pick WBAI Today, 10:30 AM The GeoTeam 1 Comment

    Summary

    • On Wednesday, February 25th, 2015, WBAI issued a release stating that select lottery services had been temporarily suspended in some provinces.
    • On Monday, March 2nd, 2015, the company published a press release stating that it was suspending more services and as a result expected a “material adverse” effect on its financials.
    • Today, we believe a majority of WBAI’s internet-based lottery sales have been suspended indefinitely and that the company is in a non-revenue generating holding pattern.
    • We have uncovered what we believe to be “conveniently” timed stock sales from an entity that may be controlled by a 500.com Board Member.
    • We believe management is doing the bare minimum in communicating the potential severity of these events to U.S. investors.
  • Why I'm Considering Increasing My Stake In Paragon Offshore
    PGN Today, 10:22 AM The Value Portfolio 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The oil crash has hit Paragon Offshore harder than most other offshore drillers.
    • Currently, Paragon has the ability to purchase debt at just thirty cents on the dollar and has managed to decrease its debt by $100 million.
    • The company does not have any debt due for several years and its long-term potential make it a fair buy at current levels.
  • Micron And The Game Of Memory
    MU Today, 10:05 AM Jaret Wilson 21 Comments

    Summary

    • The tragedy of the commons in the memory industry is over.
    • Game theory demonstrates that manufacturers can together keep supply constrained.
    • Tit-for-tat responses will allow the oligopoly a legal form of collusion.
  • Chesapeake Energy: If The Bigwigs Keep Buying, Why Would You Want To Sell?
    CHK Today, 9:54 AM Achilles Research 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Carl Icahn recently increased his stake in Chesapeake Energy to 11%, despite the collapsing crude oil price.
    • Investors also saw heavy insider buying from the Chairman of the Board of Directors at Chesapeake Energy lately.
    • Both transactions should make investors at least curious.
    • Carl Icahn's increased stake and substantial insider buying reaffirm my bullish long-term thesis with respect to Chesapeake Energy.
  • Amazon Dash Could Be Big For Brands
    AMZN Today, 9:47 AM Dana Blankenhorn 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon Dash is a very simple Internet of Things button for creating shopping lists.
    • The button is tied to major brands, which will benefit over store brands.
    • In time, the winners will be the biggest stores, which can build-in this infrastructure.
  • Iran Will Be Shipping Oil Soon; Buy Navios And Tsakos
    NNA, TNP Today, 9:47 AM Daniel Carlson 2 Comments

    Summary

    • A deal with Iran is imminent.
    • Expect the impact on oil pricing to be muted.
    • Iranian crude will drive tanker rates higher still.
    • NNA and TNP are undervalued and will benefit from any deal that removes sanctions on Iran.
  • InsiderInsights.com Daily Round Up 3/31/15: CHK, ASYS, FCNCA, VBFC
    ABDC, ASYS, BRX Today, 9:46 AM InsiderInsights Comment!

    Summary

    • Tables of the top insider purchases and sales filed with the SEC on 3/31/15, based on dollar value.
    • Dollar values often do not equate with significance when it comes to insider trades.
    • Proprietary Insider Company Ratings are relayed to clarify significance.
  • SNC Lavalin Group Will Benefit From Insider Trading In The Short Term
    SNCAF Today, 9:46 AM Laurent Cadotte 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Intense insider buying and share buyback will provide a strong floor for the share price.
    • The Highway 407 concession in Ontario is still a very valuable asset, and the sale could raise cash for another acquisition.
    • There are still great headwinds that remains in the core engineering and construction operations of the company.
  • Why Nevada Copper Isn't Fully Funding Capex For Stage I Yet, Despite Being Fully Permitted And Having Debt Arranged
    Editors' Pick NEVDF Today, 9:43 AM The Critical Investor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Nevada Copper owns the large, advanced and staged Pumpkin Hollow copper project in Nevada, USA.
    • Stage I is fully permitted and the area has been consolidated since the passing of the Land Bill in December 2014, a huge milestone which took much longer than anticipated.
    • Although the $200M debt financing as part of $329M capex by Red Kite was already secured in March 2013, copper prices have crashed since then and the equity part remains.
    • After careful research, it appeared that the underground Stage I is barely profitable at current metal prices, and the open pit Stage II probably isn't profitable as well.
    • Because of this, financing at reasonable terms has become much more difficult, and management is working on an integrated FS now to improve their chances.
  • AMD's Rapidly Declining R&D Myth
    AMD Today, 9:39 AM Sean Chandler 4 Comments

    Summary

    • In an effort to stay afloat, AMD has cut its expenses across the board, which has naturally corresponded to lower R&D requirements over the last several years.
    • This alone may not be enough to justify a 35% reduction in R&D spending over the last four years.
    • R&D is extremely important in the semiconductor industry, and AMD’s direct competitor in computing invested nearly 13 times more than AMD did in R&D.
    • Fortunately, one of AMD’s high-growth businesses includes "R&D" that is not incorporated into its R&D investments category.
  • Why Now Is The Time To Pick Up 117-Year-Old Goodyear Tire
    GT Today, 9:37 AM David Trainer 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The best stock picks in today’s market are becoming increasingly rare.
    • This company makes products that will likely never become obsolete as long as people need to get around or move things.
    • This week’s stock pick of the week is the 117-year old Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company.
    • Goodyear is operating at its highest efficiency of any time in the past 16 years.
  • How To Safely Invest In Infrastructure
    BRK.A, BRK.B, KMI Today, 9:35 AM Ján Mazák Comment!

    Summary

    • I will summarize some important points I have learned about investing in infrastructure.
    • BRK, BIP and KMI share many elements in their strategy.
    • With management focused on safety, you just need a good purchase price for good returns with little risk.
  • Finding Value With The Piotroski F-Score Part 4
    BBG, CYS, DCO Today, 9:31 AM Rupert Hargreaves Comment!

    Summary

    • The Piotroski F-Score was designed to find companies that are cheap and recovering.
    • This is part four of a year-long series looking at the success and suitability of using the F-Score to select stocks for a portfolio.
    • To date, over the past four months the F-Score portfolio has returned negative 26.67%.
  • AT&T: A Race To The Bottom?
    T Today, 9:26 AM Albert Alfonso 13 Comments

    Summary

    • AT&T is facing increasing pricing pressure from lower cost rivals.
    • The company is aiming to diversify its revenue streams to lower its reliance on its wireless segment.
    • AT&T remains a stock worth owning due to its outsized ~6% dividend yield.
  • ModernGraham Annual Valuation Of AmerisourceBergen Corp.
    ABC Today, 8:56 AM Benjamin Clark 1 Comment

    Summary

    • ABC is not suitable for either Defensive Investors or Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach.
    • According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is overvalued at the present time.
    • The market is implying 16.57% earnings growth over the next 7-10 years, which is not supported by the rate the company has achieved in recent years.
  • Why I Just Bought Sprouts Farmers Market
    SFM Today, 8:48 AM Alex Pitti 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Sprouts is perfectly situated in the market to experience the healthy eating growth tailwind.
    • This along with a growing store count should grow earnings significantly in the future.
    • Apollo is done selling its shares making now a great time to buy.
    • Sprouts has double the growth of Whole Foods yet it only trades at a slightly higher P/E.
    • I think it will make new all-time highs. This is why I just bought it last week.
  • Has Franchising Really Caused The Drop In Biglari Holdings Earnings As Groveland Contends?
    BH Today, 8:46 AM Aurelien Windenberger 3 Comments

    Summary

    • One of Groveland's main arguments for replacing Sardar Biglari is that BH Operating performance has gotten markedly worse over the past few years.
    • A cursory glance at BH's financials seems to indicate that they are correct. However, further review indicates that Biglari has chosen to forego short term profits for long term value.
    • Biglari has repeatedly pointed out that franchising will lead to strong long term returns. Groveland argues that it has only led to losses so far. Both sides are correct.
    • Franchising is a brilliant move for the company, one that will lead to strong long term profits.
  • Insys Therapeutics Inc. Poised For Strong Growth In Earnings Ahead
    INSY Today, 8:43 AM Christopher Stoehr 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Five phase III trials planned for 2015 covering well over $4 billion in sales.
    • Insys Therapeutics Inc. using 505(b)(2) regulatory pathway enabling fast time to FDA approval.
    • Resubmitting NDA for Dronabinol Sublingual Spray with possible launch early 2016 and predicting quick grabbing of market share from generic Marinol.
    • I predict INSY filing of 3 to 5 NDA in 2016 with possible approvals in 2017 gaining new and differentiated drugs to promote..
  • Comparing America's Next 3 Lodging Companies
    H, STAY, WYN Today, 8:41 AM Joseph Cafariello Comment!

    Summary

    • The Lodging industry is expected to outperform the S&P broader market substantially this quarter, astronomically next quarter, and meaningfully next year and beyond.
    • Mean and high targets for the next 3 U.S. lodging companies – Wyndham Worldwide Corporation, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, and Extended Stay America - range from 3% to 38% above current prices.
    • Find out which one among Wyndham, Hyatt and Extended Stay offers the best stock performance and investment value.
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of TJX Companies
    TJX Today, 8:32 AM Benjamin Clark 1 Comment

    Summary

    • TJX is suitable for Enterprising Investors, but not Defensive Investors following the ModernGraham approach.
    • According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is undervalued at the present time.
    • The market is implying 8.67% in annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years, which is significantly less than the growth the company has seen in recent years.
  • MEI Pharma Is Undervalued By At Least Half And Will Recover, Here Is Why
    MEIP Today, 8:30 AM StockMatusow 6 Comments

    Summary

    • On March 23rd, MEI Pharma reported that its Phase II trial investigational drug candidate Pracinostat in combination with azacitidine failed to meet its primary endpoint, improved complete response/remission rates.
    • The study was double-blinded and placebo-controlled, enrolling 102 patients with previously untreated intermediate-2 or high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). The trial was geared towards Pracinostat as a first line treatment.
    • The company remarked that it saw a high drop out rate in the drug arm, and is looking to see if this resulted in the trial failure.
    • However, Pracinostat has shown a strong signal in treating previously untreated (first line) patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML).
    • Additionally, the company has 2 other drugs in its early pipeline, but currently trades below its current cash level. This may have to do with end of Q "window dressing."
  • The Recent Oil Crisis Makes Chicago Bridge & Iron A Great Value
    CBI Today, 8:28 AM Greg Reabold 10 Comments

    Summary

    • I rate CBI as a buy from a Value Investing perspective.
    • I believe there are several catalysts for CB&I going forward despite oil prices.
    • Chicago Bridge & Iron is at an attractive value compared to its valuation using the P/E Multiple.
  • Seven Generations Energy: A Detailed Analysis Of The Days To Come
    SVRGF Today, 8:23 AM Value Digger 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The company's Kakwa River project is at a relatively early stage of development.
    • Seven Generations has made long term commitments for take-away capacity.
    • This long term mandate dictates the company's production growth by the end of 2016.
    • To meet these commitments and replace production declines, the company will have to outspend cash flow in 2015 and 2016.
    • The key and debt ratios will deteriorate by the end of 2015.
  • Latest Insider Purchases In Abercrombie & Fitch, Anacor Pharmaceuticals And Civeo Corp.
    ANAC, ANF, CVEO Today, 8:10 AM Insider Monkey Comment!

    Summary

    • Academic research has shown that certain insider purchases historically outperformed the market by an average of 7 percentage points per year.
    • The trick is focusing on the small-cap stocks, not the large-cap stocks which are extensively covered by analysts and followed by almost everybody.
    • Recently there were insider purchases at ANF, ANAC, and CVEO.
  • The Rise Of The Robots: Mazor Robotics And Intuitive Surgical
    MZOR Today, 8:06 AM Capital Screen 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The robotic surgery market grows at 12.6% CAGR.
    • We estimate that Mazor Robotics has 100% upside over the next 5 years based on our NPV model and sales forecast.
    • We believe that Intuitive Surgical is too expensive right now. Long term, we think that it may be a good investment.
  • Copa Airlines: Finding Value In LatAM Airlines
    CPA Today, 8:02 AM NU Student Value Fund 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Trading at a 30% discount to intrinsic value, due to overblown FX & geopolitical headwinds.
    • Strong growing business supported by the Panamanian government.
    • Stable government spending on infrastructure.
  • Medidata: A Short Thesis
    Editors' Pick MDSO Today, 8:00 AM Suhail Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Medidata is another Vertical Life Sciences SAAS that offers a fantastic risk/reward short opportunity. The shares will fall by 45% over the next 12 months.
    • After an exhaustive several months of research, we have determined MDSO's TAM is grossly overstated by a factor of 7x+. This is remarkably even worse than Veeva.
    • The evidence of the minute size of the non-EDC eClinical market is overwhelming and irrefutable, and remarkably has gone largely ignored.
    • There are mounting red flags over the past year that are also impossible to ignore. Terminating quarterly guidance, eliminating non-rave revenue breakdowns, and broadening the back-log coverage definition.
    • The competitve environment outside EDC is a big problem for Medidata, and it is getting even worse as large pharmas and CROs are opening up to small vendors.
  • Hedge Funds' Latest Moves: Diamondback Energy, Walker & Dunlop, Town Sports International Holdings
    CLUB, FANG, HMTV Today, 7:48 AM Insider Monkey Comment!

    Summary

    • Farallon owns 4.06 million shares of Town Sports while HG Vora holds a 3.88 million share stake.
    • Wexford Capital reduced its FANG position down to 928,000 shares.
    • Fortress Investment Group dumped its entire Walker & Dunlop stake.
  • Dover Motorsports' Nashville Sale A Potential Catalyst
    DVD Today, 7:44 AM Vince Martin Comment!

    Summary

    • The pending sale of its Nashville facility will put cash in DVD's coffers and likely eliminate interest expense.
    • Broadcast revenue increases, new music festivals, and cost-cutting can lead to stable earnings.
    • DVD looks fairly valued as is, but has several avenues to increasing shareholder value; it's definitely worth a look on even a modest pullback.