Seeking Alpha
  • Lands' End: Spin-Off Situation With 60%-90% Upside
    Editors' pick LE Today, 10:49 AM New Capital 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Lands' End's recent listing and subsequent price drop seem to indicate a classical spin-off special situation that should generate excess profits for investors.
    • The company's online/catalog business produces stable FCF yield of 13% on current market cap. Increase in debt load will not affect results materially.
    • Relative to peers, Lands' End appears to have a potential upside of 60%-90%.
    • Catalysts include reduction in after spin-off selling, potential reinstatement of dividends and increased awareness of the company among investors.
  • Why The NeuStar Bears May Be Proven Wrong
    Editors' pick NSR Today, 8:51 AM Pedro De Noronha Comment!

    Summary

    • NeuStar became a deep value with a catalyst story.
    • Huge short interest (23% of shares out) may trigger a substantial short covering rally.
    • Catalyst imminent on May 6th with an asymmetric risk/reward very skewed to the upside.
  • Whiting Petroleum Working On The Second Act
    Editors' pick WLL Today, 8:39 AM Stephen Simpson, CFA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Whiting has established a sizable acreage in the Williston/Bakken, and continues to have years of attractive drilling prospects.
    • Whiting's Redtail prospect in the Niobrara will likely be the next major source of production growth.
    • The Street seems to be worried about the "maturity" of Whiting's asset base, but the valuation looks too low today.
  • Dividend Growth Investment Or Compounding Machine? Brenntag Could Be Both
    Editors' pick BNTGF, BNTGY Today, 8:18 AM Early Retiree Comment!

    Summary

    • Brenntag is the global market leader, and enjoys strong competitive advantages.
    • The company will likely continue to grow organically and through acquisitions, further increasing its profitability.
    • Being highly diversified among industries and geographies makes the company largely independent from the volatility of any single specific market segment or region.
    • With little net debt, a dividend well covered by earnings and excellent growth prospects, the company is worth being considered by dividend growth investors as well.
  • Why I'm Buying Aviat Networks Hand Over Fist
    Top Idea AVNW Today, 5:00 AM Inefficient Market 31 Comments

    Summary

    • Net cash represents nearly 70% of market capitalization.
    • Currently trades for just 7% of revenue (EV/Revenue basis).
    • Trades 30% below tangible book value.
    • Management forecasting a return to profitability during second half of calendar 2014.
    • Bullish long-term outlook in a growing industry.
  • Health Insurance Innovations: Positive Outcome Looks More Likely In This Binary Stock
    Editors' pick HIIQ Yesterday, 8:43 PM Ashleigh Rogers Comment!

    Summary

    • Health Insurance Innovations is still a good investment for investors willing to stomach risk and volatility.
    • Revenues are ramping and meaningful profits should materialize this year and double next year.
    • The stock looks like a binary play - in five years it will probably have been either massively profitable for investors or a complete flop.
    • Earnings releases and management commentary are supportive of the positive outcome.
  • Cincinnati Bell Turns A Corner
    Editors' pick CBB Yesterday, 8:36 PM Mike Arnold 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Cincinnati Bell recently agreed to sell its legacy wireless business to Verizon for $210 million.
    • The company holds a 69% interest in CyrusOne with a stated goal of liquidating the investment over the next several years.
    • Asset sales will help Cincinnati Bell delever itself, and focus on its higher growth Fioptics segment.
  • SolarCity Retained Value Redux: The Utilities Strike Back
    Editors' pick SCTY Yesterday, 11:43 AM Casual Analyst 64 Comments

    Summary

    • With increased solar penetration, utilities are looking at a dramatic reduction in energy sales and the threat of having to write off the uncompetitive or underutilized assets.
    • Connection charges and rate tiers are examples of the powerful option that utilities have to slow down solar penetration.
    • Companies like SCTY and SUNE are likely to see significant compression in retained values as the utilities fight back.
  • Same Stuff, Different Year: Should Shareholders Stick With IBM?
    Editors' pick IBM Yesterday, 5:12 AM DoctoRx 57 Comments

    Summary

    • In all my articles on IBM, I have argued that new money was better off in other stocks.
    • Now I examine whether existing shareholders should sell their IBM shares.
    • Was this poor Q1 "the last straw?"
  • Ignite Restaurant Group: Hidden Value In The Company's Attractive Assets
    Top Idea IRG Yesterday, 5:00 AM Shaun Currie, CFA 10 Comments

    Summary

    • IRG's valuation has been weighed down by the Macaroni Grill acquisition, but the company's other assets are worth much more that the current enterprise value.
    • Recent management shake-up at Macaroni Grill and management commentary leads me to believe that this segment is stabilizing.
    • If we were to assign a valuation of zero to Macaroni Grill, instead of its current negative valuation, we could see IRG's stock move into the $20-25 range.
    • Even if the business does not stabilize, the segment's attractive real estate portfolio allows for conversions to Brick House Taverns at a lower cost than new builds, or possible monetization.
  • Staples: Industry Consolidation Leading To 50% Upside
    Top Idea SPLS Yesterday, 5:00 AM CDM Capital 28 Comments

    Summary

    • The poor quarter was negatively skewed by difficult comps against a 53rd week, unfavorable foreign exchange rates, and 109 store closures.
    • The market systematically underestimates the speed at which industry consolidation will take place between Office Depot and Office Max.
    • The street under appreciates Staples market leading position, as well as its growing e-commerce business.
    • Private equity is likely a potential suitor in a non-levered high free cash flow retailer with significant hidden value in its online business.
    • Business trades at around 10x LTM earnings, with significant free cash flow levers starting in 2015.
  • VASCO Data Security To Benefit From Heartbleed Bug, Opportunity To Unlock Value Via Tender Offer/Special Dividend
    Top Idea VDSI Yesterday, 5:00 AM Dr. Hugh Akston 2 Comments

    Summary

    • VDSI positioned to benefit from Heartbleed bug raising awareness of fixed password vulnerability.
    • Wall Street expectations for FY 2014 look too low, Q1 earnings should be catalyst.
    • VDSI should conduct tender offer for 10% of the shares outstanding at $8 per share and pay a one-time dividend of $1 per share.
    • The economic situation in Europe is on the mend, will benefit VDSI order intake.
  • Weight Watchers International - Is The Fat Lady Singing?
    Editors' pick WTW Wed, Apr. 16, 2:04 PM Independent Value 17 Comments

    Summary

    • WTW is currently valued at a 39% discount to a conservative estimate of intrinsic value for its business.
    • Discount is due to 50%+ decline in share price over last 12 months, attributable to recent negative trends and business underperformance.
    • Negative trends are temporary, while underperformance is attributable to operational issues which are all fixable - they are not indicative of permanent flaws in WTW's business model or prospects.
  • Do Mako Investors Realize Their Tenuous Security Position In Oceanica?
    Editors' pick OMEX Wed, Apr. 16, 1:26 PM Meson Capital Partners 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Mako Resources investors appear to have few rights to Oceanica assets due to senior OMEX payable security. Mako investors need to ask serious questions.
    • Did Josh Adam of Mako negotiate this transaction at arm's length with OMEX in line with his fiduciary duty?
    • Josh Adam, SVP Finance, used Highly Questionable brokers to raise capital for Neptune (OMEX's other mining venture), according to recent disclosures.
    • Is the vague J.P. Morgan Oceanica connection merely through a local Chase Private Client Florida branch attempting to sell unregistered securities to HNW investors?
  • BofI Holding: After H&R Block Transaction, Still Overpriced At Almost 4x Book Value
    Editors' pick BOFI Wed, Apr. 16, 9:00 AM Kerrisdale Capital Management 8 Comments

    Summary

    • BOFI is over-earning and overpriced, and the H&R Block deal doesn't change that.
    • Five other banks looked at the deal and passed or bid less than BOFI, indicating the low value of the asset.
    • Prepaid-card issuing banks have much lower valuations and lower returns than BOFI does today, supporting our view that BOFI's profits are unsustainably high.
  • Lifetime Brands: A Mundane Company, With Exciting Profit Potential
    Top Idea LCUT Wed, Apr. 16, 5:00 AM Helix Investment Research 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Lifetime's mundane business belies its profit potential.
    • The company expanded gross margins during the key holiday quarter, alongside rising revenues and EPS.
    • With insiders owning 22% of outstanding shares, capital is being deployed in an accretive fashion.
    • Continued moves to enlarge brand portfolio and international presence will increase Lifetime's addressable market.
  • Qiagen: Why I Prefer Waiting On The Sidelines
    Editors' pick QGEN Tue, Apr. 15, 10:53 PM Andy Batts 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Qiagen tries to drive revenue growth by boosting the global adoption of QIAsymphony and QuantiFeron-TB.
    • It is highly unlikely that these products would drive shareholder value in terms of earnings and share price growth.
    • The company is increasingly taking inorganic route for generating cash, which is worrisome.
    • The management needs to understand that there is a fine line between responsibly growing shareholder value and doing whatever is needed for generating cash.
  • Hotel Industry: Competitive Factors And Discussion Of Hotel Franchisors As An Investment Opportunity
    Editors' pick IHG Tue, Apr. 15, 11:42 AM Thomas Kennedy 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Both hotel franchisors and franchisees experience inflation resistant growth, helping to deliver positive real returns to investors.
    • Hotel franchisors exhibit strong competitive advantages and impressive returns on capital, especially amongst market leaders, making a strong case for investing in the sector.
    • The hotel industry goes through regular, predictable cycles, which affects the number of guests staying at hotels, the revenue per room, and growth in the number of hotels.
    • This market cycle dramatically affects the profits of hotel owners due to their high level of operating leverage, but has a diminished impact on franchisors.
    • Many of the top hotel franchisors have reached lofty relative valuations, and would warrant a pullback before purchasing shares, with IHG presenting the best buying opportunity.
  • Immune Pharma Tackling Orphan Disease Bullous Pemphigoid
    Editors' pick IMNP Tue, Apr. 15, 11:37 AM Jason Napodano 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Bertilimumab is a first-in-class fully human monoclonal antibody that is directed against eotaxin-1, a potent chemoattractant and activator of eosinophils.
    • Eosinophils are implicated in the inflammatory changes seen in various inflammatory disorders such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), asthma, and dermatological diseases such as bullous pemphigoid (BP).
    • BP is an orphan dermatological disease that affects approximately 12,000 people in the U.S. each year.
    • Eotaxin-1 plays a role in the recruitment of inflammatory cells to skin lesions in patients with BP and represents a novel therapeutic target for this disease.
  • EMC Corp.: 20% - 25% Upside In 1 Year
    Editors' pick EMC Tue, Apr. 15, 10:47 AM Suneet Chandvani 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Trade: Long EMC Current price: 26.75 Expected price: 33 Upside: 23% Time: 1 year.
    • Thesis: Cheap valuations, EMC on a stand-alone basis (excluding VMware) is significantly mispriced, huge cash pile, share buybacks, market leader, taking market share from competitors, sticky business, focus on innovation.
    • EMC is trading at a discount even on a very conservative basis and the market is ignoring its competitive advantages including quality, breadth of offerings, strong distribution, after sales service.
  • Small Is Beautiful: My Favorite Bank Stock Has A Strong Quarter
    Editors' pick HIFS Tue, Apr. 15, 9:06 AM DoctoRx 6 Comments

    Summary

    • One of the country's strongest community banks, Hingham Institution for Savings showed strong growth in Q1 on several metrics.
    • The stock is cheap on price:book as well as price:earnings, and has a competitive yield.
    • Investors are warned that liquidity in this equity is poor.
  • La Quinta's IPO Should Provide An Extended Stay Of Share Price Appreciation
    Editors' pick LQ Tue, Apr. 15, 8:56 AM Dallas Salazar 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Bad luck with IPO timing could price in a share price discount that would make a new position attractive.
    • LQ's majority owners, Blackstone, bring an incredibly valuable active management to the company that will pay huge dividends.
    • LQ's growth strategy is well planned and I expect them to execute it effectively.
  • Ziopharm: Attempting To Rise Again In A Crowded Space
    Editors' pick ZIOP Tue, Apr. 15, 8:36 AM The Behavioral Economist 8 Comments

    Summary

    • A year removed from a significant trial disappointment, Ziopharm is attempting to once again gain traction.
    • With enough cash to carry the company through mid-2015, Ziopharm's upcoming phase two data release could be a massive boost to future prospects.
    • With innovative therapeutic technology in its corner, Ziopharm's lead compound could make a noteworthy impact on considerable markets.
    • After restructuring in mid-2013, Ziopharm has become leaner and meaner, putting it in a better position to achieve.
    • A considerable amount of ambiguity surrounding Ziopharm's 2013 trial failure leaves many investors skeptical and suspicious.
  • Kodiak Oil & Gas: A New Paradigm - A Moderate-Risk Development 'Story'
    Top Idea KOG Tue, Apr. 15, 5:00 AM Richard Zeits 26 Comments

    Summary

    • The article provides illustrative valuation analysis of Kodiak’s drilling inventory, including risks and upsides.
    • The stock is priced very reasonably relative to its value potential.
    • The transition into full development mode and substantially reduced operating risk should help to close the gap between the stock price and the underlying NAV.
  • 1347 Property Insurance Holdings: An IPO Left For Dead With Upside Of 50%-100%
    Top Idea PIH Tue, Apr. 15, 5:00 AM Alpha Gen Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • National property insurers continue to reduce their exposure to Louisiana and other coastal markets.
    • Premiums have skyrocketed in certain states allowing Maison to cherry-pick high margin policies.
    • The volatile insurance climate as it pertains to more weather losses has been overrated and biased by Katrina.
    • Lower reinsurance rates should be a nice tailwind in the near-to-medium term.
  • Halcon Resources: Strong Read-Across From Goodrich's TMS Result
    Editors' pick HK Mon, Apr. 14, 2:16 PM Richard Zeits 30 Comments

    Summary

    • The outstanding Blades 33H-1 well result in the TMS reported this morning by Goodrich Petroleum has a strong positive read-across to Halcon.
    • Halcon's first TMS well, the Horseshoe Hill 11-22H-1, is expected next month, and another five wells are planned to be spudded by July.
    • The Blades well provides a potent catalyst for Halcon's stock. Another half a dozen offset operator well results are expected within two months.
  • Citigroup: High-Risk, High-Reward Turnaround
    Editors' pick C Mon, Apr. 14, 8:31 AM Shiv Kapoor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Citigroup was severely wounded by the financial crisis, and was rescued by the U.S. government.
    • Much of the repair to the balance sheet is done, but the task remains incomplete. Risks remain elevated.
    • But there is light at the end of the tunnel. After that, it's a matter of realizing their true earnings potential.
    • The stock is attractively priced at a 17% discount to tangible book value.
  • Crown Holdings: Boring, Safe, And Hugely Profitable
    Editors' pick CCK Sun, Apr. 13, 4:22 PM Value Vista UK 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Crown Holdings is a high quality company operating in an industry with high barriers to entry.
    • Costs in the beverage division are lowest in the industry, incremental return of 20% on past ten years of capex.
    • Business is highly cash-generative, sells at significant discount to the amount of cash that will be generated over the next five years.
    • Investing heavily in growth in developing markets. Acquisition of Mivisa supports these attributes.
  • Is Now The Time To Buy Atrion Corporation?
    Editors' pick ATRI Sun, Apr. 13, 4:04 PM Kevin Quon Comment!

    Summary

    • Atrion Corp. has historically been an outperforming company.
    • Atrion's multiple markets and product diversity provides increased stability.
    • Long-term contracts have helped provide revenue consistency.
    • Despite solid performance, the stock may be outpacing the company's growth.
  • Stalwart Tankers Should Delay Their IPO Indefinitely
    Editors' pick STST Sat, Apr. 12, 4:15 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • STST operates with massive levels of debt and leverage that make this a risky position.
    • STST will need to raise debt, or dilute shareholders on a regular basis going forward.
    • STST will need a flawless execution of their growth strategy and help from financing to remain solvent.
  • Weight Watchers - Bear Side Of The Argument
    Editors' pick WTW Sat, Apr. 12, 10:41 AM New Capital 21 Comments

    Summary

    • The company seems to be in permanent decline in its offline segment, and the number of subscribers in online business have also started to drop recently.
    • Due to intense competition from free aps, as well as network effects of similar type of businesses, the rebound of Weight Watchers is very unlikely.
    • Management has not acted in the interest of common shareholders, are selling stock right after option conversions and have only immaterial holdings in the company.
    • Weight Watchers' significant annual interest payments are likely to consume majority of the earnings in the upcoming years, and might even cause liquidity concerns.
    • Currently, there does not seem to be any upside for long investors.
  • Franklin Wireless Has An Unannounced Megadeal
    Editors' pick FKWL Sat, Apr. 12, 10:41 AM Marc Gilbert 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Apparently, the company is manufacturing devices for Verizon.
    • Q1 earnings will likely take off.
    • The company only trades at a small premium to cash on hand.
  • Northwest Pipe: Addition By Subtraction, Street EPS Estimates Missing The Full Benefit
    Editors' pick NWPX Sat, Apr. 12, 2:15 AM Non-Correlating Stock Ideas Comment!

    Summary

    • The divestiture of Houston and Bossier City OCTG pipe mills removed a money losing business from the Tubular segment, allowing the Atchison mill’s performance to shine.
    • My pro forma ex-items EPS for 2013 improves by $0.62, from $1.75 to $2.37.
    • NWPX’s future earnings contributions to be primarily from Water segment. Outlook for large projects with significant potential order profiles looks the best in years.
    • Water peer group valuation suggests NWPX currently trades at over a 40% discount based on P/E multiples for my 2014 EPS estimate of $2.51.
    • Management continues to successfully transform the return and earnings profile of this company. With increased capital flexibility post-divestiture, look for future tuck-in acquisitions in the Water segment.
  • IAC InterActive Is Unlocking Value By Potentially Breaking Up With Match Group
    Editors' pick IACI Fri, Apr. 11, 6:03 PM Mike Arnold 5 Comments

    Summary

    • IAC InterActive provided a "tell" to investors in December 2013, portending a spin off of its online matchmaking and ancillary businesses into the Match Group.
    • Consolidated results are obfuscating the underlying value in the Match Group.
    • Management has a history of effecting spin offs, and appears poised to separate its crown jewel from the rest of its digital properties which face tougher competition.
  • Sportsman's Warehouse: No Cash, No Credit, And Ownership Ringing The Register
    Editors' pick SPWH Fri, Apr. 11, 4:04 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • SPWH is leveraged to obscene levels, and will continue at high levels after the IPO.
    • SPWH's majority shareholder has taken significant amounts of risk off the table for themselves, while maintaining their top-end potential.
    • SPWH's CAPEX and borrowing fueled growth strategy has little room for error.
  • Catalysts Present For Northeast Community Bancorp's 2nd-Step Conversion Offering Attractive Risk-Adjusted Returns
    Editors' pick NECB Fri, Apr. 11, 9:00 AM Unconventional Capital Wisdom 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Mutual thrift conversions continue to provide investors a time-tested way to earn attractive risk-adjusted returns.
    • Northeast Bancorp management miscues have led to poor performance post first-step conversion.
    • Joseph Stilwell's continued lawsuit provides a catalyst to add additional board members who will institute a second-step and better shareholder value in the near term.
  • Eagle Warns Shareholders Of Possible Lower Share Price From Dilution And Substantial Doubt In Its Ability To Continue As A Going Concern
    Editors' pick EGLE Fri, Apr. 11, 8:23 AM Michael Cutler 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Eagle Bulk Shipping is working under waivers for violation of debt covenants to avoid default, which require agreement to terms of a Restructuring by April 15.
    • The company's March 31 10-K is clear that unless they agree to restructuring terms by April 15 they have "substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern."
    • The company states: "it is expected that any Restructuring transaction would be substantially dilutive to the Company’s current shareholders, driving down price per outstanding share substantially."
  • Nexstar Broadcasting: Growth Story Unraveling
    Editors' pick NXST Fri, Apr. 11, 5:00 AM Johannes Salim 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Nexstar is worst hit due to new joint sales agreement (JSA) regulation as it has high JSA revenue exposure.
    • Nexstar's growth story is likely to unravel as it has to adjust to new regulation.
    • My base and pessimistic case point to a steep 31-45% downside potential.
    • Catalysts to de-rate Nexstar substantially are 1) its eventual disclosure of sizeable JSA sales exposure 2) growth story unraveling and 3) some pending acquisitions not obtaining regulatory approval.
    • Market-neutral pair trade strategy: Short Nexstar, Long Gray Television.
  • Tronox - Time To Focus On The Future
    Top Idea TROX Fri, Apr. 11, 5:00 AM Brian Langis 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Tronox is in a solid cash position.
    • The TiO2 industry is stabilizing.
    • Tronox could make an acquisition or be acquired.
    • Nice reliable $1.00 per dividend per share.
    • Tronox’s bankruptcy and litigation are now a thing of the past.
  • Intercept Pharmaceuticals (Part II): The Short Story Is Over, Time For The Long Story
    Editors' pick ICPT Fri, Apr. 11, 2:11 AM Dr. Paul Nunzio DeSantis, Pharm.D 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Now that the crowd euphoria has faded, we amend our bearish view on Intercept and currently view it as a compelling asymmetric trading opportunity from the long side.
    • Positive top-line Phase 3 POISE data that substantially derisks the FXR pathway in chronic liver diseases increases our confidence in the pharmacology of OCA in chronic liver diseases.
    • Intercept’s pipeline has been progressively derisked during 1Q14, while the share price has continued to decline 33%, in our view represents a mispricing of the fundamentals of Intercept.
    • In our fundamental assessment, Intercept has a fundamental floor value of $257/share and we view this as a favorable risk/reward trade setup leading into the EASL conference.
  • The Cheapest High Growth Stock In The S&P Is... Rowan Companies?!
    Editors' pick RDC Thu, Apr. 10, 11:54 PM Jeffrey Dow Jones 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Earnings and the stock have been stuck in a funk. But that all could be about to change.
    • RDC is the cheapest stock in the S&P 500 right now (on a 1yr forward PE basis).
    • RDC has the 16th highest 5yr earnings growth expectations in the S&P 500.
    • The stock currently trades just above rock-solid historical support.
    • The result is a massively positive asymmetric 18-month trade with an attractive entry point right now.
  • Brazil Fast Food Corp. Remains Undervalued Despite More Investor Awareness
    Editors' pick BOBS Thu, Apr. 10, 4:46 PM David Tristan Liu 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Details in the 2013 take-private proposal indicate long-term value.
    • BOBS is a fundamentally strong company, offering an attractive franchise business.
    • It's operated by a well-incentivized management with a track record of creating shareholder value.
    • Its market valuation does not reflect its underlying fundamentals.
  • Premier Financial Bancorp: A Community Bank To Watch Going Forward
    Editors' pick PFBI Thu, Apr. 10, 2:21 PM Dutch Trader 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Community Banks will profit from pick-up in lending.
    • The regional banking sector continues to undergo consolidation.
    • Premier Financial Bancorp, is a well run acquirer that is undervalued compared with peers.
  • Next Chapter In The Acorda Story Will Be A Page Turner
    Editors' pick ACOR Thu, Apr. 10, 11:54 AM PropThink 2 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA approval of Plumiaz (3Q14 or earlier) is a key 2014 event that stands to boost revenues by 30%+.
    • Advancing clinical development of Ampyra (dalfampridine) in post-stroke deficits may support multi-factored growth of leading asset’s revenue capabilities.
    • The early-stage rHIgM22, a remyelinating asset for the treatment of MS, could be a breakthrough, and initial proof of concept is due in early 2015.
    • Although shares remain in-line with levels when initially recommending Acorda, we still view the company as an attractive investment that continues to build out its revenue base through product diversification.
  • Tesla - 20 Key Risks That Longs Are Ignoring
    Editors' pick TSLA Thu, Apr. 10, 11:45 AM Blue Ridge Buffettologist 616 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla, considering its nearly $27,000,000,000 market cap, is priced to perfection.
    • When a company is priced to perfection, the smallest change in investor sentiment can have large consequences on the stock price.
    • Longs currently are ignoring 20 key risks facing Tesla; once the market rationally assesses these risks, Tesla's stock will be repriced much lower.
    • Even if each risk has a 90% chance of NOT occurring, the odds that all 20 risks will not occur is only 12%.
  • JPMorgan: When To Nibble, When To Bite
    Editors' pick JPM Thu, Apr. 10, 10:03 AM Shiv Kapoor 7 Comments

    Summary

    • The earnings season is upon us, and JPMorgan is due to report at 7 a.m. ET on Friday.
    • Prices climb in anticipation of earnings, and adjust to new information after the earnings release.
    • JPMorgan is priced for perfection. And in this post, I set out nibble and bite levels which ought to tempt buy and hold style value investors, should the opportunity arise.
  • Rio Alto: Potential Double, Limited Downside
    Top Idea RIOM Thu, Apr. 10, 5:00 AM Ian Bezek 35 Comments

    Summary

    • Market has failed to account for excellent resource update in February.
    • This resource update gives RIOM the financial flexibility to build Phase II of the La Arena mine without diluting shareholders.
    • Phase II feasibility study results this summer offers catalyst for sudden repricing of stock higher.
    • The market currently values Phase II at nearly zero. As such, Phase II is a nearly free call option on 4 billion pounds of copper/4 million ounces of gold.
    • Existing operations are worth roughly $2/share, limiting downside even if Phase II doesn't work out.
  • Gaiam Keeps Unlocking Value And Accelerating Organic Growth
    Editors' pick GAIA Thu, Apr. 10, 1:53 AM Martin Vlcek Comment!

    Summary

    • Gaiam continues to unlock balance sheet value by divesting and utilizing NOLs, while still squeezing in a small, targeted acquisition.
    • The company achieved 20% total organic sales growth in 2013.
    • Gaiam includes a Netflix-like streaming TV unit with 100% sales growth expected for 2014.
    • Based on sum-of-parts valuation, the spin-off of video streaming subscription unit should result in at least 17% higher total stock price due to P/S expansion.
    • However, Gaiam in undervalued even without the spin-off.
  • Free At Last: New Pure-Play Energen's Permian Basin Push
    Editors' pick EGN Wed, Apr. 9, 2:52 PM Jennifer Warren 2 Comments

    Summary

    • If 2014 is a transition year, what does 2015 look like given raised Midland Basin reserve estimates and Energen's Midland push?
    • Ditching the gas utility makes a new pure-play identity for Energen, a positive catalyst for future growth.
    • Compared to other E&Ps, especially smaller firms, Energen has diversified energy assets that hedge for both oil and liquids plus gas opportunities.
    • Value-added assets like the Central Platform and San Juan Basins offer other avenues for growth.
    • After the sale announcement, target price expectations have been raised for Energen.
  • SodaStream's Yonah Lloyd Participates In Q&A Session With Investors
    Editors' pick SODA Wed, Apr. 9, 2:27 PM Seth Golden 23 Comments

    Summary

    • First Ever Q&A session for Seeking Alpha participants with SodaStream management.
    • SodaStream's Yonah Lloyd discusses various topics with investors.
    • Seeking Alpha participants are empowered to ask SodaStream related questions directly with Yonah Lloyd.