Seeking Alpha
  • T2 Biosystems' Quiet Period Expiration Provides Buying Opportunity
    TTOO Today, 7:17 AM Don Dion 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The SEC-enforced 25 day quiet period for TTOO will come to an end on August 31.
    • On August 31, TTOO’s underwriters, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, could likely boost TTOO share prices with the publication of positive reports.
    • TTOO's low-balled IPO pricing has given the stock room to grow over the past two weeks; we suspect that TTOO's momentum could continue.
    • Investors should consider buying into TTOO as the quiet period expiration approaches in order to take advantage of the strong opportunity to get a piece of an exciting stock.
  • Westlake Chemical Partners' Quiet Period Expiration Could Offer A Short-Term Buying Opportunity
    WLKP Yesterday, 6:17 PM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • September 7 will conclude the 40-day quiet period on WLKP, formed by Westlake Chemical to acquire and operate ethylene production assets and facilities.
    • WLKP's share prices could enjoy a temporary rise as a result of the publishing of the likely positive underwriter reports.
    • Long-term, we like WLKP, for its potential to generate strong yields, given the steady flow of revenue from OpCo's fixed-margin sales to Westlake, along with strong management.
    • Short-term, WLKP could see at least a 2% increase in share price in the days surrounding the quiet period expiration, according to recent and historical research.
  • Abnormal Negative Returns Around The IPO Lockup Expiration Provides Shorting Opportunity
    Editors' Pick Yesterday, 10:11 AM Don Dion 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Building on prior academic studies, our investment firm analyzed 242 companies with lockup expirations in 2013 and 2014, through June.
    • Our findings suggest the greatest negative returns (-5.5%) occur within the Day (-11, +9) period surrounding the lockup event (Day 0).
    • These negative returns occur for tech firms who have not completed a secondary offering and whose share price has increased from IPO to Day (-11) from the lockup expiration.
  • Synchrony Financial Soaring As Investors Anticipate 'Buy' Ratings
    SYF, GE Yesterday, 8:23 AM Anthony Ruben 32 Comments

    Summary

    • SYF is up almost 9% in the last two days.
    • Expect analyst reports as early as next week.
    • GE, which still owns 80%+ of SYF benefits from SYF's price appreciation.
  • Update: Allergan Might Acquire Salix Pharmaceuticals Or Someone Else
    AGN, VRX Wed, Aug. 20, 5:38 AM Uncommon Profit Investor 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Allergan might acquire Salix according to "people familiar with the matter". Allergan might possibly get a tax inversion by buying Salix. Or it could make it all-cash without an inversion.
    • Valeant's tender fiasco means that Allergan shareholders should approve any deal. Despite Valeant's aggressive claims, just 4% of Allergan shares were tendered in two months.
    • Chairman of Salix is 70 years old and the CEO and President is 65. This is a great way for them to retire.
    • Salix went up 15% today due to the acquisition rumor. It is not certain that Salix is the one Allergan will acquire.
    • The WSJ article (i.e. "people familiar with the matter") also says Allergan might acquire "another unknown party" if not Salix.
  • Alibaba Eyes Used Cars, Korea, Mid-Sept IPO
    BABA Tue, Aug. 19, 10:31 AM Doug Young 14 Comments
  • Ryerson Holding Corp. Is All Smoke And Mirrors
    Editors' Pick RYI Mon, Aug. 18, 4:00 PM Dallas Salazar 8 Comments

    Summary

    • RYI has greatly and grossly utilized an accounting rule that allowed the company to realize massive amounts of income tax benefits that substantially drove net income the last three years.
    • RYI has an extremely efficient set of operations that is unable to manage sales growth consistently and should post a huge net loss full year.
    • Without use of its accounting bazooka, RYI should see the largest swing from net gain to net loss in company history at year end.
  • Mobileye N.V.: Driving Up High Into The Quiet Period
    MBLY Mon, Aug. 18, 2:38 PM Don Dion 9 Comments

    Summary

    • The SEC-enforced 25 day quiet period on underwriter analyses of MBLY, initiated with the firm's July 31 IPO, will conclude on August 26.
    • On August 27, MBLY’s IPO underwriters can publish analyses of this Israeli ADAS technology developer, likely leading to a rise in MBLY share price.
    • Our own studies, performed on a sample of 2014 IPOs, show above-market returns of 2.3% within an 8 day (-5, +2) window (day 0 being the quiet period expiration).
    • The upcoming quiet period expiration will likely create a strong buying opportunity for those interested in getting a piece of this rising company.
  • 2 U.S. IPOs Planned For The Week Of August 18
    ZSAN, GWGH Mon, Aug. 18, 2:36 PM Renaissance Capital IPO Research Comment!
  • U.S. IPO Pricing Recap: Two Deals Trade Flat Before A Two-Week Break In The IPO Market
    OTIC, BNK, ZSAN Sat, Aug. 16, 3:49 PM Renaissance Capital IPO Research 1 Comment
  • Strong Buying Opportunity: General Electric's Synchrony Financial Quiet Period Expiration
    SYF Fri, Aug. 15, 2:40 PM Don Dion 15 Comments

    Summary

    • The 40 day quiet period for SYF will conclude September 8, allowing SYF’s IPO underwriters to publish (likely positive) analyses of the GE consumer financial services spin-off on September 9.
    • This event could lead to positive, above-market returns for SYF in the days surrounding the quiet period expiration—a phenomena tracked in academia and our own research.
    • Though SYF got off to a rocky start, we remain optimistic on SYF moving forward, given impressive revenues and consumer spending moving in a positive direction.
    • The upcoming quiet period expiration may help to galvanize potential investors and present a strong buying opportunity.
  • VTTI Energy Partners Revs Up For Quiet Period Expiration
    VTTI Fri, Aug. 15, 8:06 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • August 26 marks the conclusion of the 25 day quiet period on underwriter research for VTTI.
    • We remain optimistic on this stock -- both long-term and at the upcoming quiet period expiration.
    • Our recent research shows +2.3% returns within an 8 day (-5, +2) period surrounding the quiet period expiration of many firms.
    • We believe that the firm's strong quarterly distributions will continue to attract investors, along with its likely continued generation of steady revenue streams.
  • Independence Contract Drilling: An Energy-Technology Hybrid
    ICD Thu, Aug. 14, 7:31 PM Dallas Salazar 4 Comments

    Summary

    • ICD, because of its accounting methods, will post its first net gain next quarter and will do perpetually barring any black swan events.
    • ICD has a great system of shrinking expenses as a percentage of revenues that is tethered to entirely controllable variables: accounting and rig launches.
    • A transitioning industry, no contractual obligations due short-term, and disruptive technology make this E&P derivative a must own.
  • Quiet Period Expiration For Transocean Partners LLC: Full Steam Ahead
    RIGP Thu, Aug. 14, 3:57 PM Don Dion 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The 25 day quiet period on underwriter reports for RIGP will come to an end on August 25.
    • On August 26, the firm's IPO underwriters are allowed to publish research reports on the Transocean-formed owner and operator of offshore drilling rigs.
    • RIGP has seen mostly gains in its early market performance, after pricing above its expected price and enjoying a healthy 10.5% return in its first day.
    • With academic studies and our own research showing returns of at least 2%-4% in the period surrounding the quiet period expiration, we see this event as a new buying opportunity.
  • Another Tasty Opportunity With El Pollo Loco
    LOCO Thu, Aug. 14, 2:26 PM Don Dion 10 Comments

    Summary

    • The 25 day quiet period on underwriter research on LOCO that began with the firm's July 24 IPO will conclude on August 18th.
    • The publication of the underwriter reports will likely lead to at least a brief rise in the price of LOCO shares on August 19th.
    • Though LOCO may not be the next Chipotle, and certainly isn’t likely to sustain its meteoric rise in value, fast-casual restaurants in general have performed well in recent years.
    • We see LOCO’s upcoming quiet period expiration as another chance to buy into a successful company.
  • Ladder Capital Corp. Lockup Expiration: A Step-By-Step Short Opportunity
    LADR Thu, Aug. 14, 2:15 PM Don Dion 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The 180-day lockup period on LADR will conclude on August 21, allowing LADR's major pre-IPO shareholders to sell their outstanding shares numbering over 35 million.
    • LADR is a commercial real estate finance firm, with the largest pre-IPO shareholders currently private equity firms GI Partners and Towerbrook.
    • Evidence suggests that LADR's stock price could decline ~2% surrounding the lockup expiration event.
    • While LADR's market performance has been inconsistent, it has still seen growth, along with its business; we note a temporary short opportunity.
  • This Just In: Buying Opportunity At Townsquare Media's Quiet Period Expiration
    TSQ Thu, Aug. 14, 11:53 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • The 25 day quiet period on TSQ will come to a close on August 17.
    • August 18 marks the first day TSQ’s IPO underwriters, can publish research reports on TSQ; these will likely be positive and lead to a brief increase in TSQ shares.
    • Despite a disappointing early start to trading, TSQ has strong underwriters, including Bank of America, who may use the opportunity to give TSQ a boost.
    • While we do not suggest a long-term play, the upcoming quiet period event could provide a temporary purchasing opportunity.
  • Long Alibaba, Short Amazon
    BABA Thu, Aug. 14, 7:56 AM Ugly Duckling 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Alibaba has a refined business model which takes advantage of the strengths of Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY).
    • The fact that Taobao is free for sellers makes the platform far more attractive to low-margin sellers than the Amazon model.
    • Alibaba addresses a much wider market covering products ranging from industrial components sold in bulk down to consumer products.
  • IPO Preview: C1 Financial
    BNK Wed, Aug. 13, 9:38 PM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Based in St. Petersburg, Florida, BNK operates from 28 banking centers and one loan production office on the West Coast of Florida and in Miami-Dade and Orange Counties.
    • Near the top 1% of the fastest growing banks in the country as measured by asset growth.
    • P/E is relatively high at 56, while the price-to-book is moderately attractive at 1.6.
  • C1 Financial, Inc. IPO Could Be Slow Out Of The Gate
    BNK Wed, Aug. 13, 12:02 PM Don Dion 3 Comments

    Summary

    • BNK, a Florida commercial bank with principal offices in St. Petersburg, Florida, plans to raise $50 million in its upcoming IPO.
    • BNK has attained profitability, and the firm certainly has made impressive progress in terms of growing its assets and its deposits.
    • BNK's efforts to expand via relatively low-cost acquisitions have already borne fruit.
    • However, we suggest investors exercise caution with BNK, as the market could continue to be wary of banking-related stocks in the aftermath of the Great Recession.
  • A New Buying Opportunity For Intersect ENT At Quiet Period Expiration
    XENT Wed, Aug. 13, 11:18 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • The 25 day SEC-enforced quiet period for XENT will expire on August 17.
    • On August 18 XENT’s IPO underwriters can release analyses of the ear, nose, and throat drug device company, likely leading to at least a temporary rise in shares.
    • Research has shown above-market returns of 2.3% in the 8 day (-5, +2) period, surrounding a company’s IPO quiet period expiration.
    • Given that XENT is already gaining ground in the market, the event could be an additional boost and create a new buying opportunity.
  • IPO Preview: Otonomy
    OTIC Wed, Aug. 13, 1:24 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of innovative therapeutics for the treatment of diseases and disorders of the ear.
    • Insiders may purchase up to $20 million on the IPO, or 25%.
    • The price-to-book is 2.1.
    • OTO-104 has a FDA Fast Track designation.
  • IPO Preview: Capnia
    CAPN Wed, Aug. 13, 12:55 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Develops medical diagnostics and therapeutics based on its proprietary technology for precision metering of gas flow.
    • Intends to begin selling the first product, CoSense, in the second half of 2014.
    • Introducing a new medical diagnostics product can be a long and expensive process.
  • IPO Preview: GWG Holdings
    GWGH Wed, Aug. 13, 12:27 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Provides financial solutions to consumers in the emerging secondary market for life insurance assets.
    • The price-to-book is 3.6. No clear competitive advantage.
    • P/E ratio is -5.1, which means the cash burn rate relative to the market cap is high.
  • Don't Listen Too Closely For Otonomy IPO
    EARS Tue, Aug. 12, 4:15 PM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • OTIC, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical firm seeking to develop and commercialize treatments for ear conditions, plans to raise $80 million in its upcoming IPO.
    • Though OTIC is closing in on FDA approval for AuriPro, there is no guarantee that the firm will be able to successfully gain commercial traction with its products.
    • Competitor Auris Medical IPOed last week, with lukewarm response; investors could be hesitant to buy into another ear treatment company this week.
    • Also given the high executive compensation, given OTIC’s lack of commercial success to date, we suggest investors hold off on this IPO.
  • UBIC Is A Little Asian Autonomy
    UBIC Tue, Aug. 12, 1:42 PM IPO Candy 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Since its stealthy IPO on the US market last year, this small Japanese software company is up nearly 300% YTD.
    • It is expanding its US presence with automated and AI-based solutions that analyze data for use in applications like e-discovery, fraud detection, and compliance.
    • With a market cap of nearly $400M and expected sales this year of just under $60M, the stock is no longer cheap, but still has potential.
    • Analyst coverage is limited, and the fundamental data around this company on services like Google Finance is wrong - understating its market capitalization and carrying a very high EPS figure.
  • Zendesk's Share Price Appreciation Should Be Limited By Its Share Price Appreciation Short Term
    Editors' Pick ZEN Tue, Aug. 12, 10:52 AM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • Zendesk has an incredible set of operations that it has built largely by funding using share-based compensation.
    • Zendesk is just now, outside of a one-time major recognition in Q4/12, beginning to have to recognize significant amounts of share-based compensation expenses.
    • Zendesk has an already large and growing amount of share-based comp expenses and float growth that should only get larger down the road.
  • IPO Preview: How Individual Investors Can Profit From Alibaba's Large Public Offering
    BABA Mon, Aug. 11, 6:52 PM Daniel Lynch 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Alibaba Group is expected to have one of the largest IPOs in American history raising more than $20 Billion.
    • There are three potential ways for investors to capitalize off of this widely anticipated public offering.
    • BABA's IPO will produce opportunities for investors both directly through shares of Alibaba stock and through symbiotic growth with stakeholders Yahoo and Softbank.
  • 4 U.S. IPOs Planned For The Week Of Aug 11
    OTIC, BNK-OLD, GWGH Mon, Aug. 11, 4:20 PM Renaissance Capital IPO Research Comment!
  • Synchrony Financial - Relative Appeal At This GE Capital Split-Off
    SYF Mon, Aug. 11, 9:39 AM The Value Investor 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Synchrony Financial witnessed a disappointing public offering.
    • It seems that GE being an eager seller left some money off the table, creating momentum to split off the rest of the business.
    • I like the valuation in relationship to the healthy financial position at the moment.
  • HealthEquity - Great Company, Great Public Offering, Waiting For A Pullback
    HQY Mon, Aug. 11, 9:34 AM The Value Investor Comment!

    Summary

    • HealthEquity has seen a successful public offering.
    • Investors are cheerful about rapid growth, profitability and further good prospects.
    • I like the business as well, hoping for a correction to get a better long term risk-reward opportunity.
  • U.S. IPO Pricing Recap: 7 IPOs See Heavy Discounts And Positive Trading
    DSKY, BABA, TOUR Sun, Aug. 10, 8:56 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research Comment!
  • IPO Preview: Independence Contract Drilling
    ICD Fri, Aug. 8, 12:18 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Provides land-based contract drilling services for oil and natural gas producers targeting unconventional resource plays in the United States.
    • 2013 revenue +183%, Q1 '14 revenue +64%.
    • Q1 barely profitable on an adjusted basis.
  • IPO Preview: Green Bancorp
    GNBC Fri, Aug. 8, 12:01 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Texas focused bank holding company headquartered in Houston, Texas.
    • Yet another bank holding company growing by acquisitions.
    • The Houston, Dallas and Austin MSAs are GNBC’s target markets.
  • HealthEquity: This Stock Is Ready To Run With The Bulls
    Editors' Pick HQY Thu, Aug. 7, 7:54 PM Dallas Salazar 2 Comments

    Summary

    • HQY has an already excellent business that is becoming more efficient each year.
    • HQY generates excellent operational cash flow and now has the proceeds from its recent IPO at its mercy - look for acquisitions in the near term.
    • HQY has been able to grow the top line while decreasing expenses.
  • FCB Financial Holdings: An Attractive Market And Loan Portfolio - At Least For Right Now
    FCB Thu, Aug. 7, 7:11 AM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • FCB has derived a material percentage of its interest income the last two years from accretable discounts on acquired loans from FDIC receivership.
    • FCB has a very unseasoned book of loans that are currently not indicating a realistic level of risk.
    • FCB offers an attractive entry point right now but as time goes on its risk profile should steadily grow, something that makes me cautious when initiating.
  • Hoegh LNG Partners IPO: Moving Full Steam Ahead
    HMLP Thu, Aug. 7, 3:24 AM Don Dion 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Oslo-based HMLP, a limited partnership formed by Hoegh LNG Holdings Ltd. to acquire, own, and operate LNG infrastructure assets, plans to raise $192 million in its upcoming IPO.
    • HMLP's interests in FSRUs with long-term charters should provided the company with steady cash flows, along with opportunities to expand.
    • HMLP’s excellent potential quarterly distributions (~6.75%) should also serve to entice investors.
    • With additionally strong management, we are optimistic on this IPO and suggest investors consider buying in.
  • IPO Preview: Hoegh LNG Partners LP
    HMLP Thu, Aug. 7, 3:16 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Carve-out from Höegh LNG Holdings Ltd. (Oslo Børs symbol: HLNG), a leading floating LNG service provider.
    • 6.75% yield may not be enough compared to GLMP & TGP.
    • At the closing of this offering, interests in HMLP’s initial fleet of FSRUs will be contributed to HMLP by Höegh LNG.
  • IPO Report: T2 Biosystems
    TTOO Thu, Aug. 7, 3:04 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • In vitro diagnostics company that has developed an innovative and proprietary technology platform that offers a rapid, sensitive and simple alternative to existing diagnostic methodologies.
    • Worth watching, especially if product launch happens in the first half of '15.
    • Insiders plan to purchase 26.7%.
  • IPO Preview: Ryerson Holding
    RYI Thu, Aug. 7, 2:53 AM IPOdesktop 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Believes it is one of the largest processors and distributors of metals in North America measured in terms of sales, with global operations in North America, China and Brazil.
    • Steady decline in rev & gross profit.
    • Low gross profit of 17%, very highly leveraged, interest payments are 92% of operating earnings.
  • IPO Preview: iDreamSky Technology
    DSKY Thu, Aug. 7, 2:36 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Largest independent mobile game publishing platform in China based on the number of active users in 2013, according to the Analysys Report.
    • Big top line rev growth, can it continue?
    • Q2 revenue up only 8% vs Q1 '14. P/E of 27 annualizing Q2 estimate.
  • A New Buying Opportunity Forming With TerraForm Power's Quiet Period Expiration
    TERP Wed, Aug. 6, 2:45 PM Don Dion 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The 25-day SEC-enforced quiet period on underwriter analyses on TERP will come to an end on August 11, likely giving TERP a temporary boost in price.
    • Results of recent studies show a share price increase in the eight-day (-5,+2) window, surrounding a company’s IPO quiet period expiration.
    • Given the strong early market performance and solid yields, TERP looks like a solid buy both long-term and at the upcoming quiet period expiration.
  • 3 Reasons Why El Pollo Loco Doesn't Look Like The Next Chipotle
    LOCO Wed, Aug. 6, 8:47 AM Daniel Jones 7 Comments

    Summary

    • El Pollo Loco's current structure limits significant revenue growth.
    • Debt has been, historically, very burdensome and will likely remain this way, to some extent, for years to come.
    • The cost of growing is far steeper than it is for Chipotle, which can grow far more rapidly than its smaller rival.
  • Catalent - Little Appeal In This Debt-Loaded, Slow-Growth And Sponsored Public Offering
    CTLT Wed, Aug. 6, 5:52 AM The Value Investor 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Catalent serves the pharmaceutical industry with its sophisticated technologies and development solutions.
    • Yet the business is saddled with debt under its previous ownership of Blackstone, resulting in GAAP losses on the back of excessive interest payments.
    • Despite reduction in leverage following the public offering, the business remains marginally profitable.
    • This combined with the lack of growth and the premium valuation makes me want to stay on the sidelines.
  • Mobileye - Great Product, Great Business, Non-Compelling Investment Opportunity
    MBLY Wed, Aug. 6, 4:21 AM The Value Investor 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Mobileye has seen a hugely successful public offering despite continued tensions in the Middle-East.
    • The company's solutions are very appealing, as the company reports accelerating growth and is actually profitable.
    • Yet the current valuation relies on a lot of optimistic assumptions going forwards, limiting the risk/reward opportunity in my eyes.
  • After Disappointing IPO, New Buying Opportunity Opens For Trupanion
    TRUP Tue, Aug. 5, 5:07 PM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • The 25-day SEC-enforced quiet period on underwriter research reports on TRUP will come to an end on August 11.
    • On August 12th, TRUP’s IPO underwriters will likely release positive analyses - leading to a temporary increase in TRUP’s shares in the (-5, +2) day period surrounding the event.
    • Despite a disappointing IPO, TRUP’s quiet period expiration could bring a buying opportunity as Barclays, Stifel, Canaccord and other reputable firms likely attempt to boost the firm’s share price.
  • Our Top IPO Pick Of The Week: China's iDreamSky IPO
    DSKY Tue, Aug. 5, 3:53 PM Don Dion 15 Comments

    Summary

    • DSKY, a Chinese mobile game publishing platform with principal offices in Shenzhen, China, plans to raise $100.1 million in its upcoming IPO.
    • DSKY's business model of importing well-regarded games from international developers for a Chinese audience makes good sense.
    • The firm has attained profitability and a massive monthly active user base.
    • With strong receptivity to Chinese IPOs recently, we are positive on DSKY.
  • Spark Energy Is An Accounting Enthusiast's Dream
    Editors' Pick SPKE Tue, Aug. 5, 2:34 PM Dallas Salazar 2 Comments

    Summary

    • SPKE, because of its accounting methods, should be an excellent risk adjusted long position for at least the next three quarters.
    • New owners of SPKE are the beneficiaries of a low expectation environment and a company willing to pay owners - SPKE's current dividend yield is 8.43%.
    • SPKE's growing derivative portfolio which is M2M should cause huge surprises to the upside as the natural gas market reverts to a historic mean.
  • Uncovering The Deal: Independent Contract Drilling IPO
    ICD Tue, Aug. 5, 1:54 PM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • ICD, an independent provider of land-based oil and natural gas drilling services in the Permian Basin, plans to raise $150 million in its upcoming IPO.
    • ICD has created significant income growth since 2012, and we suspect the firm's advanced drilling rigs will continue to prove attractive to customers.
    • We are positive on this IPO and suggest investors consider buying in.
  • T2 Biosystems IPO With Goldman Sachs Underwriting And Goldman Sachs Ownership May Pop
    TTOO Tue, Aug. 5, 11:26 AM Don Dion 7 Comments

    Summary

    • TTOO, an in vitro diagnostics firm with principal offices in Lexington, Massachusetts, plans to raise $64 million in its upcoming IPO.
    • TTOO appears to be nearing FDA approval for its T2Candida, but there is little guarantee that the firm will be able to successfully commercialize its products, especially given strong competitors.
    • We are positive on this IPO (as T2Candida could represent a life-saving advance in Candida diagnostics) and suggest aggressive investors consider this Polaris backed IPO.