Seeking Alpha
  • U.S. IPO Weekly Recap: 7 IPOs See Etsy Vault 70%, Proving Vintage Is In Vogue
    ETSY, ADRO, VIRT Yesterday, 3:51 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research Comment!
  • Is Etsy The Dream Stock Tech Investors Have Been Waiting For?
    ETSY Fri, Apr. 17, 3:53 PM Khurram Aziz 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Etsy is the largest B corporation to file an IPO, but must maintain this status for the long term.
    • Investors must be clear that the business is not currently profitable, but that may not be the point.
    • The company’s stock price opened at $31, twice that of its original IPO pricing.
    • Its business model is based on community and keeping sellers happy.
  • The Party's Just Getting Started At Party City
    PRTY Fri, Apr. 17, 3:45 PM Evan Buck Comment!

    Summary

    • Elmsford, New York-based Party City saw its Initial Public Offering appreciate nicely during its market debut.
    • Despite bearish concerns over corporate management, debt levels, and market competition, Party City seems to be well-positioned for future growth.
    • The company is headed in the right direction financially and is an attractive IPO at these levels.
  • Etsy IPO: Doubling Its Value The Artisan Way
    ETSY Fri, Apr. 17, 1:52 PM Feria Investor Comment!

    Summary

    • Etsy IPO valued the company at $1.8bn but the stock has doubled in early trading.
    • The online community Etsy has built includes almost 20mn buyers.
    • With e-commerce giant Alibaba also entering small biz/boutique artisan sales with 11 Main, the competition may become the basis for a buyout.
  • IPO Outlook Series Q2 2015 - Good Technology
    GDTC Fri, Apr. 17, 9:27 AM APBK Capital Comment!

    Summary

    • Good Technology is a leader in mobile security technologies.
    • Good has demonstrated strong organic growth that isn't expected to slow down, and post-IPO potential to grow through acquisitions.
    • A strong brand and key competitive advantages make Good an excellent investment potential.
    • The IT security segment commands very high valuations, expect upside potential to exist once Good prices their IPO.
  • Etsy Is Taking Over The World
    ETSY Fri, Apr. 17, 4:13 AM Kapitall 4 Comments
  • Etsy Up Over 100% In First Day Of Trading
    ETSY Thu, Apr. 16, 7:24 PM ValueWalk 5 Comments
  • National Storage Affiliates IPO Expanding Self Storage REIT Options
    NSA Thu, Apr. 16, 3:43 PM APBK Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • National Storage Affiliates is well poised for organic and acquisition-based growth.
    • Strong occupancy levels and cheap debt is fueling great returns in the industry.
    • The IPO is currently pricing considerable growth, depending on market reaction, NSAT may poise a great opportunity.
  • Sientra: Attractive Price Targets On Conservative Growth Estimates
    SIEN Thu, Apr. 16, 1:05 PM Dallas Salazar 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Sientra is a buy-and-hold story - plain and simple.
    • Only the third entrant into the breast implant vertical of the medical aesthetics niche in 20+ years, this company can disrupt in a big way.
    • SIEN, according to analyst estimates, could have 50% upside to it in the near term.
    • I also believe analysts have SIEN's growth modeled incorrectly, which could lead to substantial revisions higher and big time outperformance.
    • Accumulate shares now, as I believe SIEN finishes the year much higher than where it trades today.
  • Xbiotech Has Both Near And Long-Term Opportunities
    XBIT Thu, Apr. 16, 12:44 PM APBK Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Xbiotech has a great pipeline of prospects, which will help IPO pricing and early trading performance.
    • Heavy competition threatens the marketability of key drugs, and may limit upside potential.
    • Early results are very positive and as a result, Wall Street may respond favorably to the IPO.
  • IPO Preview: KemPharm
    KMPH Thu, Apr. 16, 7:56 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Clinical-stage specialty pharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery and development of proprietary prodrugs that KMPH believes will be improved versions of widely prescribed, approved drugs.
    • The company has a trial finding that lead product is bioequivalent to Norco.
    • The P/E is -6.5, indicating heavy cash burn rate relative to market cap. No revenue.
  • IPO Preview: Etsy
    ETSY Thu, Apr. 16, 12:10 AM IPOdesktop 2 Comments

    Summary

    • ETSY operates a marketplace where people around the world connect, both online and offline, to make, sell and buy unique goods.
    • Revenue +56%, gross profit +58%. Gross profit is 62% of revenue.
    • Gross merchandise sales +43%. Active buyers +41%.
  • IPO Preview: Party City
    PRTY Thu, Apr. 16, 12:09 AM IPOdesktop 2 Comments

    Summary

    • A specialty retailer/wholesaler that produces 7,000 new products every year.
    • Seems to be protected from Amazon and eBay type online competition by the flow of new products that need to be seen to be appreciated, in person.
    • 11% top line revenue growth, to $2.3bb, 53% wholesale.
    • .8 price-to-sales. 21 P/E, price-to-tangible book of -1.3.
  • IPO Preview: Virtu Financial
    VIRT Thu, Apr. 16, 12:05 AM IPOdesktop 3 Comments

    Summary

    • High frequency trader: leading technology-enabled market maker and liquidity provider to the global financial markets.
    • IPO is for class A stock, expects to pay on class A stock 5.3% annual yield.
    • The P/E based on 2014 results is 15.5. The P/E based on annualizing March quarter estimates is 7.3.
  • Virtu Financial IPO: Ethical Questions Remain, Yet Deal Should Be Successful
    VIRT Wed, Apr. 15, 6:06 PM Don Dion 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Originally planned for 2014 until the fervor over “Flash Boys,” VIRT re-filed with the SEC for a new IPO to debut trading this coming week.
    • The syndicate is full of heavyweights: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, CIBC, Credit Suisse, Evercore, BMO, Sandler O’Neill, Citibank, Rosenblatt and Academy Securities.
    • Growing revenues, income, and a strong record of trading gains are encouraging; questions of ethics over high frequency trading remain.
    • We suggest investors consider buying into this IPO.
  • IPO Quiet Period Expiration: SolarEdge Technologies
    SEDG Wed, Apr. 15, 4:36 PM Don Dion 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The 25-day quiet period on SEDG ends on Monday, April 20.
    • Then, on Tuesday, April 21, SEDG’s IPO underwriters, including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Needham and others will have a first chance to issue reports.
    • The event usually sees above-market returns as firms like SEDG with powerful underwriters usually issue positive reports and recommendations.
    • SEDG's solid market performance also positions it well for an additional boost.
    • We suggest investors consider buying SEDG in advance of the event for full gains.
  • IPO Preview: Cidara Therapeutics
    CDTX Wed, Apr. 15, 3:40 PM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • A biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of novel anti-infectives. No strategic partners.
    • Shareholders may buy $25mm, or 42% of the IPO. The P/E of -16 indicates moderate cash burn rate relative to market cap.
    • Price-to-book of 1.64 is low. Intends to initiate Phase 1 and Phase 1b/2 clinical trials.
  • IPO Preview: Aduro Biotech
    ADRO Wed, Apr. 15, 3:10 PM IPOdesktop 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Clinical-stage immuno-oncology company focused on the development of first-in-class technology platforms designed to stimulate robust and durable immune responses against cancer.
    • Shareholders may buy $42.5mm in IPO stock, 57% of the IPO. Novartis Pharmaceuticals may buy $25mm in a concurrent private placement.
    • The P/E of -50 indicates relatively low cash burn rate relative to market cap.
  • IPO Preview: XBiotech
    XBIT Wed, Apr. 15, 2:40 PM IPOdesktop 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on monoclonal antibodies. Dependent on two Phase III clinical studies to be completed in '15 and '16.
    • The P/E of -27 indicates moderate-to-low cash burn rate relative to market cap.
    • Has an impressive board of directors, see below.
  • Party City IPO: A Bag Of Goodies For Investors
    PRTY Wed, Apr. 15, 11:20 AM Don Dion 6 Comments

    Summary

    • PRTY, retailer of party goods and supplies with over 800 party superstores in North America, is set to price its NYSE IPO this Wed., 4.15.2015.
    • Lead Underwriters: BofA Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs; Underwriters: Barclays Capital, Credit Suisse Securities, Deutsche Bank Securities, J.P. Morgan Securities, Morgan Stanley, and others.
    • PRTY faces stiff competition from Wal-Mart, Target, Michaels, and others - yet top and bottom line growth are positive.
    • We are hearing the deal is oversubscribed and building nicely. We suggest investors buy into this IPO.
  • IPO Lockup Period Expiration: Sientra Inc.
    SIEN Wed, Apr. 15, 10:47 AM Don Dion 3 Comments

    Summary

    • April 27, 2015 concludes the 180-day lockup period for SIEN, developer of medical aesthetics products, specifically silicone gel breast implants.
    • At this point, SIEN's major pre-IPO shareholders will have a first chance to sell their holdings, likely flooding the market and temporarily depressing SIEN's share price.
    • Research shows abnormal negative returns of ~(5%) in a window of approx. one week prior to the lockup expiration event.
    • Given SIEN's growth, these insiders could be ready to take profits; investors should be ready for a short sale.
  • Cidara Therapeutics Hopes To Capitalize On Promising Market
    CDTX Wed, Apr. 15, 10:19 AM APBK Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Cidara Therapeutics is developing niche market therapeutics to treat complicated fungal infections.
    • The niche is not very competitive and commands high revenue per treatment.
    • Several drugs in the pipeline could bolster likelihood of approval.
  • Aduro Biotech IPO: Strong Underwriting And Big Goals
    ADRO Wed, Apr. 15, 9:40 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • Berkeley, California-based ADRO is a clinical stage biotech firm focused on developing technology platforms to trigger and sustain immune system responses against cancer.
    • ADRO is set to price its IPO this Wednesday, April 15th; lead underwriters are BofA Merrill Lynch and Leerink Partners.
    • Aduro is one of the stronger biotech firms we’ve seen go public lately (many have been of poor quality). Aggressive investors should consider taking a small position.
  • KemPharm Could Capitalize On Deterring Pain Med Abuse
    KMPH Wed, Apr. 15, 9:08 AM APBK Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • KemPharm is developing abuse-deterring versions of popular drugs.
    • A diverse portfolio and promising trials show promising signs for the company.
    • Many social and market risks exist, and could threaten the company's profitability.
  • Will Etsy's IPO Be Priced Below The Marketed Range?
    ETSY Wed, Apr. 15, 2:51 AM Apus Investments 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Etsy is being marketed at $14-$16 per share which values the equity of the company at $1.7 - $2.0 billion.
    • At ~10x revenue, ~15x gross profit and ~80x EBITDA Etsy looks expensive, even at the bottom end of its marketing range, compared to public comps.
    • Customer economics are strong but a declining trend in 2014 is worrisome.
  • IPO Outlook Series Q2 2015 - Bojangles'
    BOJA Wed, Apr. 15, 2:43 AM APBK Capital Comment!

    Summary

    • Bojangles' could be the next big restaurant IPO, and at the right valuation could be a big win for early investors.
    • Strong sales growth and profitability are positive signals for investors.
    • Heavy competition and slowing growth amongst quick service restaurants could threaten long-term outlooks.
  • Shake Shackin'
    SHAK Wed, Apr. 15, 1:19 AM Bespoke Investment Group 8 Comments
  • Virtu Financial's Stock Market Revolution Spells Big Payoff
    VIRT Tue, Apr. 14, 1:31 PM APBK Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Virtu Financial is a high-speed trading company that operates as a market-maker between bid and ask prices.
    • The company has been extremely profitable over the past 5 years, recording only one day of trading losses.
    • The current IPO price presents a favorable valuation to investors.
    • The company is well positioned for future long-term growth.
    • Significant risks could be highly detrimental to the company's profitability and operations.
  • Aduro Biotech's IPO Will Go Unnoticed
    ADRO Tue, Apr. 14, 11:11 AM APBK Capital 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Aduro Biotech offers patient investors plenty of future upside with two distinct drug technologies.
    • The IPO will go to market the same week as other blockbuster stocks and biotechs, investor attention will be limited.
    • Partnerships with Janssen and Novartis signal both operational strength, but also potential success.
  • A Closer Look: The Etsy IPO
    ETSY Tue, Apr. 14, 10:43 AM M Nunez 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Discussion of the upcoming Etsy IPO and everything a prospective investor should know about it.
    • Summary of the S-1 filling.
    • My personal opinion on the IPO.
  • Why I've Been Wrong About Freshpet - So Far
    FRPT Tue, Apr. 14, 8:02 AM Evan Buck 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of organic pet food provider Freshpet have increased in value about 53% after I published a bearish article about the stock on December 30, 2014.
    • I was intrigued to see what major developments might have catapulted the stock and if I needed to revise my thesis. After all, you learn something new every day.
    • It turns out that Freshpet stock has increased revenues and has a 60% (!!) short interest, which is, as Jim Cramer puts it, "insane.".
    • Although I still believe Freshpet has much to prove, on a technical level, no one should be shorting this stock with such a high short percentage.
    • It's worthy of note that Freshpet still has large losses despite its increasing revenue.
  • Week Ahead: Crafts, Cancer Cures And Cash Flow In A Week With 7 IPOs, Including Party City
    PRTY, ETSY, VIRT Tue, Apr. 14, 5:08 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research 1 Comment
  • U.S. IPO Weekly Recap: 2 US IPOs Feature First Chinese Tech Offering Of 2015
    PRTY, VIRT, ADRO Sat, Apr. 11, 4:48 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research 1 Comment
  • Carbylan Therapeutics Continues The Trend Of Unexciting Biopharma IPOs
    CBYL Thu, Apr. 9, 3:13 PM APBK Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Carbylan Therapeutics has a drug in clinical trials used to treat knee pain.
    • The drug, even if effective and approved, will face intense pressure.
    • IPO investors will have to wait for any return; earliest entry to market is 2017.
  • IPO Outlook Series Q2 2015 - Party City
    PRTY Thu, Apr. 9, 1:00 PM APBK Capital 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Party City's IPO is generating considerable buzz, and the name brand will likely cause an IPO pop in price before trading.
    • Investors who are thinking about buying the stock should closely monitor share price and only invest if the pop does not overvalue the company.
    • Party City's long-term growth prospects and brand look appealing, and current valuation is favorable to comps.
  • Consider Holding Off On Etsy's Crafty IPO
    ETSY Thu, Apr. 9, 10:43 AM Don Dion 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Brooklyn, NY-based Etsy, a certified B-corporation, is set to go public on 4.16.2015; underwriters include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Allen & Co.
    • Etsy generates fees by providing a peer-to-peer internet platform for handmade craft artisans, connoisseurs, and hobbyists and reported nearly $2 billion worth of transactions in 2014.
    • While Etsy has steadily increasing revenues, its net loss is also growing.
    • At this point, while the IPO is an encouraging sign for socially-conscious businesses owners and investors, we suggest holding off until it moves closer to being profitable.
  • Yulong Eco-Materials IPO Looks Unexciting With Significant Risks
    YECO Wed, Apr. 8, 12:31 PM APBK Capital Comment!

    Summary

    • Yulong Eco-Materials plans to make its IPO the week of April 6th.
    • The company faces significant growth constraints and risks.
    • The IPO is valued less than larger U.S. counterparts, an indicator of limited upside potential.
  • E-House Eyes IPO For Asset Management Unit
    EJ Wed, Apr. 8, 8:00 AM Doug Young 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Word is that an asset management firm controlled by real estate services firm E-House has made its first filing for a listing.
    • E-House is evolving a strategy of spinning off its various units into separate companies, which helps differentiate its businesses and gives stock buyers more focused investment options.
    • The timing of E-House's announcement may be linked to the recent rally that has seen shares for all 3 companies jump 15-20 percent over the last month.
  • IPO Analysis: Etsy Is Not The Next eBay
    ETSY Tue, Apr. 7, 2:03 PM APBK Capital 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Etsy's IPO will be one of the most publicized IPOs of the upcoming quarter.
    • The current valuation is lofty, but achievable given historic performance and outlook.
    • Too much media attention could cause an IPO-pop, pricing individual investors out when the stock begins trading.
  • Freshpet: Not Just A CAPEX Driven Growth Story
    FRPT Tue, Apr. 7, 10:48 AM Dallas Salazar 20 Comments

    Summary

    • FRPT is proving that it isn't just a CAPEX driven growth story in growing sales faster than fridges.
    • FRPT is also showing that inclusive of an uptick to R&D spend it is realizing operating leverage.
    • FRPT's strategy is starting to scale-up noticeably which is drawing eyes and turning heads - I think operating leverage accelerates into the balance of 2015.
    • FRPT also made advances in lowering operational cash burn, which I make clear by Adjusting its cash flow statement.
    • Continue to be long FRPT.
  • IPO Opportunity Q1 2015 Review Series - Part 2: Inovalon
    INOV Mon, Apr. 6, 4:25 PM APBK Capital 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Inovalon is one of the best growth IPOs of Q1 2015.
    • Investors who resisted the initial IPO frenzy can pick up a great stock at a discount to its first day trading price.
    • Inovalon has a strong competitive position by coupling emerging technologies with a dynamically changing market.
  • Franklin Financial Network Closes IPO, Poised For Rapid Growth?
    FSB Mon, Apr. 6, 1:10 PM Khurram Aziz Comment!

    Summary

    • Franklin Financial Network’s IPO closes at a value of $55 million, slightly exceeding initial filing estimates.
    • The total value of the deal could reach nearly $64 million. Price-per-share was reduced to $21 one day before IPO.
    • The company hopes to more than double its assets in the next two to three years.
  • Week Ahead: Up To 3 Small IPOs Could Price During The Week Of April 6
    VRAY, WOWO, YECO Mon, Apr. 6, 3:36 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research Comment!
  • Zoe's Kitchen: 3 Reasons Why It Is Not Even Close To Becoming The Next Chipotle Mexican Grill
    Editors' Pick ZOES Sun, Apr. 5, 10:50 PM Alexander Valtsev 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Zoe's Kitchen recently went public. The shares have risen over 100% above the offering price. Fundamentals are simply not there to support it.
    • I suspect that the recent upgrade in the stock's target price to $40 by Piper Jaffray poses a conflict of interest within the investment bank.
    • The management tries to dress up numbers to make the company's profitability look better than it is. Some expense accounts are questionable.
    • I ran a quick DCF analysis on the stock using the most optimistic sales and EBITDA growth rates only to find the stock is a HOLD at best.
    • Comparable companies' analysis shows the company is overvalued relative to peers, while showing bottom quartile profitability and growth results.
  • IPO Quiet Period Expiration: Summit Materials
    SUM Fri, Apr. 3, 10:38 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • The 40-day quiet period on SUM ends 4/21; this allows IPO underwriters Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Blackstone, BofA Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, and others to publish reports on 4/22.
    • SUM is a construction materials company, having realized a 197% increase in revenues between 2010 and 2014.
    • Recent research shows above-market returns, beginning approximately one week prior to a firm's quiet period expiration, particularly if the firm has high quality underwriters.
    • We suggest investors buy into SUM early to reap full gains.
  • GoDaddy And The Eternal Optimism Of Retail IPO Punters
    GDDY Fri, Apr. 3, 5:49 AM Jeremy Raper 10 Comments

    Summary

    • The mispricing of securities in the IPO process never ceases to amaze me.
    • GDDY has exhibited decent revenue and bookings growth in recent years, posting mid-teens CAGR growth rates in the 2012-2014 period.
    • GDDY is not a new company; has not generated a GAAP profit once in the last five years.
  • Week Ahead: 1 IPO During The Week Of March 9 With Blackstone's First Deal Of The Year
    SUM, GDDY, BKFS Fri, Apr. 3, 2:23 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research Comment!
  • U.S. IPO Weekly Recap: GoDaddy Is Going, Going, Gone - IPO Up 30%
    GDDY, KRNT, VRAY Thu, Apr. 2, 6:35 PM Renaissance Capital IPO Research Comment!
  • Kornit Digital IPO Is A Buy
    KRNT Thu, Apr. 2, 5:48 PM Don Dion 1 Comment

    Summary

    • We suggest investors consider buying into this IPO.
    • Good underwriters for this IPO.
    • Niche in textile industry.
  • IPO Opportunity Q1 2015 Review Series - Part 1: Box Inc.
    BOX Thu, Apr. 2, 11:24 AM APBK Capital 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The IPO market was slow for the first quarter of 2015, but great investments still exist.
    • Box Inc. soared on the first day of trading but has since retreated to a more attractive investment level.
    • Investors looking for value and growth should consider investing in Box post-IPO.