Seeking Alpha
  • Box Will Hit $1 Billion In Revenues Before You Know It
    Editors' Pick BOX Yesterday, 1:54 PM Jason M. Lemkin 4 Comments
  • IPO Preview: Juno Therapeutics
    JUNO Yesterday, 12:56 AM IPOdesktop 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Building a fully-integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on revolutionizing medicine by re-engaging the body’s immune system to treat cancer.
    • Phase II trial 'before the end of 2015.'
    • 3.4 times book, which is 'in range.' P/E of -18 indicating 'moderate' cash burn relative to market cap.
    • CL Alaska, L.P. may purchase $25mm on the IPO, 16%.
  • IPO Preview: Medovex
    MDVXU Yesterday, 12:40 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Intends to build a portfolio primarily by acquiring companies or technologies that MDVXU believes have promising commercial potential.
    • Nothing in development. No pre-clinical trials scheduled.
    • Needs strategic partners to move forward.
    • 6.6 times book (this is high). Tiny IPO, $53mm market cap.
  • Buy Virgin America As It Flies Into Christmas Quiet Period Expiration
    VA Thu, Dec. 18, 11:08 PM Don Dion 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The IPO quiet period for VA is set to end December 24.
    • On December 26, VA’s eight big name underwriters can release reports and recommendations on the firm.
    • The event opens a buying opportunity as quiet period expiration often correlates with temporary stock price increases, particularly for those with several high-quality underwriters, like VA.
  • New Relic Delivers A Strong IPO
    NEWR Thu, Dec. 18, 1:09 PM Sramana Mitra Comment!
  • In A Quiet Week For IPOs, Bellicum Pharmaceuticals Stands Out
    BLCM Thu, Dec. 18, 10:32 AM Don Dion 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The BLCM IPO is set to price Wednesday night, 12.17.2014; lead underwriters are Piper Jaffray, Citibank, and Jefferies.
    • BLCM is focused on developing new types of cellular immunotherapies for various types of hematological cancers and solid tumors, as well as orphan inherited blood disorders.
    • While the scientific and medical prospects for Bellicum’s CID platform of cancer treatment is exciting, the firm’s financial outlook is mixed and competitors are strong.
    • Still, with many solid underwriters and PE supporters, as well as being in a quiet week, BLCM stands out.
  • Rice Midstream Partners IPO: Don't Look For The Deeper Well
    RMP Thu, Dec. 18, 1:01 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • RMP filed for an IPO as the natural gas pipeline entity of Rice Energy; RMP is planning a ~$500 million raise.
    • Underwriting syndicate led by Barclays, Wells Fargo, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets.
    • While parent company Rice Energy has shown growth, the stock is down considerably since June; a volatile oil industry is difficult for investors to navigate at present.
    • RMP itself has shown significant and increasing net losses; we suggest investors hold off.
  • IPO Preview: Bellicum Pharmaceuticals
    BLCM Thu, Dec. 18, 12:18 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing novel cellular immunotherapies for various forms of cancer, including both hematological cancers and solid tumors.
    • In Phase 1/2 clinical trials.
    • Shareholders may purchase up to $40mm, 40% of the IPO. 2.8 price-to-book, lower end of 'usual' range.
    • P/E of -31, indicating 'moderate' cash burn rate relative to market cap.
  • Sidoti & Company Search For Growth And Profit
    SDTI Wed, Dec. 17, 2:50 PM IPO Candy Comment!

    Summary

    • Sidoti is a well-established boutique broker providing bare-bones research on small public stocks.
    • The business is stuck at a $30M run rate, which will continue as long as the company works at it.
    • Personnel costs consume over 70% of revenues, and other operating costs only allow for a slim profit.
    • The company could make it out at a low valuation of $6-$10M, but we'd encourage management to revamp for growth and try later.
  • Metaldyne Performance Group Is An Under The Radar IPO With Great Margin Expansion
    MPG Wed, Dec. 17, 2:11 PM Dallas Salazar 1 Comment

    Summary

    • MPG has expanded its gross, operating, and net margins Y/Y in a big way and I think it is on the front end of more expansion.
    • MPG should be able to realize several synergies with its recent combination of its three stand-alone businesses - look for this to drive financials in the short-term.
    • MPG moved substantially all of its cash outflows from contractual obligations to 2019, a move that will give it huge operational flexibility.
  • Juno Therapeutics: Saving The Best Biotech IPO For Last In 2014
    JUNO Wed, Dec. 17, 11:13 AM Chris Katje 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Four key drugs in clinical trials.
    • IPO is set to mirror the success of Kite Pharma and Bluebird Bio.
    • Strong early results show 90% remission rate in acute lymphoblastic leukemia.
  • IPO Preview: OnDeck Capital
    ONDK Wed, Dec. 17, 12:10 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Online platform for small business lending. ONDK is seeking to transform small business lending by making it efficient and convenient for small businesses to access capital.
    • Different business model than LendingClub.
    • LC is a platform that collects transaction fees but doesn't retain term loans. LC is not subject to credit risks. ONDK retains term loans, like a bank or finance company.
    • Gross revenue +156%. Loan losses 44% of gross revenue. Funding costs 12% of gross revenue.
    • Net revenue +193%. Operating loss -10% of net revenue. Adjusted loss -8% of net revenue. P/E of -222 means cash burn rate vs. market cap is relatively low.
  • IPO Preview: Rice Midstream Partners LP
    RMP Wed, Dec. 17, 12:04 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • A fee-based, growth-oriented limited partnership formed by Rice Energy Inc. to own, operate, develop and acquire midstream assets in the Appalachian Basin.
    • Expected to yield 3.75% at the price range mid-point of $20.
    • Selling 43% on the IPO, higher than recent new MLP/LPs.
    • Recent midstream IPOs off -16% in last 30 days. Parent RICE also off -16% in last 30 days. 3rd-party revenues projected to be 24%.
  • OnDeck Capital IPO: A Treadmill Lender
    ONDK Wed, Dec. 17, 12:02 AM Larry Abrams 2 Comments

    Summary

    • OnDeck Capital (ONDK) has engineered a treadmill lending platform for small businesses resulting in 49.2% of 2014 originations from repeat customers. .
    • This is a risky way to grow the business as ending the refinance of any repeat customer risks default. OnDeck is on the treadmill too and cannot get off.
    • OnDeck also has substantial balance sheet risk and should not be seen nor valued in the same terms as LendingClub (LC). We recommend not investing in OnDeck.
  • TrustBuddy: Next Peer IPO - OnDeck
    ONDK Tue, Dec. 16, 11:03 AM Nordic Investor Comment!
  • Hop On Board For OnDeck Capital's IPO
    ONDK Tue, Dec. 16, 8:44 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • Small business lending firm ONDK expects to raise $107 million in its upcoming IPO; Lead Underwriters: BofA Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank Securities, J.P. Morgan Securities, Jeffries LLC, and Morgan Stanley.
    • While ONDK is still not profitable, net losses have decreased while revenues have more than doubled since 2013.
    • We are encouraged by the recent IPO success of similar firm Lending Corp and suggest investors consider buying in.
    • As the first of just four IPOs this week, ONDK could garner additional investor attention.
  • Week Ahead: The 2014 IPO Market's Final Round With 6 IPOs Planned For The Week Of Dec. 15
    ONDK, RMP, SXB Tue, Dec. 16, 8:15 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research 2 Comments
  • The Death Of Banking: A LendingClub Story
    LC Tue, Dec. 16, 2:56 AM Michael Hamlett 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Lending Club's IPO was highly anticipated, what is its future outlook?
    • Should investors buy this stock or the loans on Lending Club's platform?
    • Is Lending Club really worth all the hype?
  • Adapting For The Adeptus Health Lockup Expiration
    ADPT Tue, Dec. 16, 12:32 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • December 22, 2014 concludes the 180-day lockup period for ADPT, at which point the firm’s major pre-IPO shareholders, will have the chance to sell ~15 million shares.
    • The supply shock could create a temporary decrease and open a short opportunity.
    • A strong early market performance, coupled with impressive revenue gains, could leave many insiders itching for profits.
    • We suggest investors sell ADPT ahead of the event to take full advantage of likely declines.
  • Should You Lend Your Capital To LendingClub?
    LC Mon, Dec. 15, 2:25 PM Diamond Technology Management 1 Comment

    Summary

    • LendingClub has a very high valuation, now trading at 22X trailing revenue.
    • Sales and marketing are currently very high as a percentage of revenue, limiting profitability.
    • Springstone Financial acquisition is likely one of many acquisitions to come as LendingClub expands product offerings and scale.
    • Given the run up post-IPO, we are waiting for more quarters of execution before purchasing shares.
  • Amazon-Backed Juno Therapeutics IPO Could Be Another Fierce Biotech Contender
    Mon, Dec. 15, 2:06 PM Don Dion 9 Comments

    Summary

    • JUNO expects to raise $150+ million in its upcoming IPO, set to price Thursday, 12.18; underwriters include Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Leerink Partners.
    • Seattle-based JUNO is a biopharmaceutical company, focused on using the body’s immune system to fight cancer.
    • While recent clinical results are promising, it could be a while before JUNO's treatments are commercialized; however, JUNO boasts significant venture funding, including from Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos.
    • We are also encouraged by the firm’s strong underwriters and see JUNO as one of the more promising biotech IPOs, in a strong 2014 market for such companies.
  • U.S. IPO Weekly Recap: 3 IPOs Jump 40% In A Week Full Of Tech Deals
    HDP, LC, NEWR Sun, Dec. 14, 6:53 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research Comment!
  • New Buying Opportunity In Store For STORE Capital Investors
    STOR Sun, Dec. 14, 2:27 AM Don Dion 1 Comment

    Summary

    • On Dec. 29, STOR's 25-day quiet period will end 12.15; STOR's IPO underwriters, including Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley LLC, will be allowed to issue reports.
    • STOR could see a 2-6% price increase in the days surrounding the event, according to a range of studies.
    • With modest gains and solid results, STOR is well poised in a growing sector for an additional boost.
    • We suggest investors buy STOR ahead of the event for full gains.
  • Momo Has Momentum On Its Side, But Is It A Buy?
    MOMO Sat, Dec. 13, 5:28 PM The Panoramic View 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Momo is a fast growing Chinese messaging company with a massive user base.
    • Momo's stock price depends on how well management monetizes its current user base.
    • Momo's Alibaba tie could help monetization efforts with a E-commerce deal similar to WeChat's JD deal.
  • ServiceMaster Serves Up A Short Play
    SERV Sat, Dec. 13, 9:19 AM Don Dion 1 Comment

    Summary

    • We see a short opportunity unfolding for SERV, in line with its upcoming lockup period expiration, set for 12.23.2014.
    • Studies show declines often begin eleven days prior to the expiration day and continue for nine days afterward.
    • We suggest investors sell SERV ahead of the event.
  • Neff's Lower IPO Pricing Really Hurts Going Into FY15
    NEFF Sat, Dec. 13, 8:40 AM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • NEFF needed to price its IPO higher to pay down its substantial Second Lien Loan debt that is accruing interest at 7.25% per annum.
    • NEFF should also be seeing top-line pressure from lower CAPEX coming from the Oil and Gas industry which generated 13% of trailing 12 month revenues.
    • NEFF is an avoid at this point as serious questions remain about near-term operations.
  • Paramount Group: Rising Higher As Quiet Period Expiration Approaches
    PGRE Fri, Dec. 12, 6:14 PM Don Dion 1 Comment

    Summary

    • PGRE recently raised a $2.29 billion IPO, making it the largest REIT initial public offering ever.
    • Powerful underwriters, including BofA Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, RBC Capital Markets and UBS could boost the stock even higher.
    • At PGRE's quiet period expiration, set for 12.15.2014, these underwriters will be able to release (likely positive) research and analyses on the firm for the first time.
    • A combination of this impending good news, PGRE's solid market performance and impressive portfolio, all suggest at least a short-term price appreciation.
    • We suggest that investors consider buying PGRE ahead of the event for full gains.
  • Momo Successfully IPOs
    MOMO Fri, Dec. 12, 2:59 PM China Stock Research Comment!
  • IPO Preview: New Relic
    NEWR Fri, Dec. 12, 8:10 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Building a new category of enterprise software it calls Software Analytics.
    • Revenue +83%; gross profit of 81%; Loss rate of -40%.
    • 250,000 users, 10,590 paid accounts.
    • Price-to-sales of 8.7; P/E of -22.5; Price-to-book of 4.4.
  • IPO Preview: Hortonworks
    HDP Fri, Dec. 12, 7:48 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Mission is to establish Hadoop as the foundational technology of the modern enterprise data architecture.
    • Revenues +109%; 34% gross profit. Loss rate is -260%.
    • Price-to-book of 3.4. Price-to-sales of 12.1.
  • IPO Preview: Workiva
    WK Fri, Dec. 12, 7:16 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Cloud-based and mobile-enabled platform for enterprises to collaboratively collect, manage, report and analyze critical business data in real time.
    • Revenue +34%; 71% gross profit. Into 60% of Fortune 100 and 500 companies.
    • Loss rate of -34%; never made money. P/E of -14.6. Price-to-sales of 5. Price to book of 7.6.
  • IPO Preview: Connecture
    CNXR Fri, Dec. 12, 7:03 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • A leading web-based consumer shopping, enrollment and retention platform for health insurance distribution.
    • Rev +70%, loss rate is -26%. Never been profitable.
    • Per share dilution of -$15.72 is higher than IPO mid-range of $13. Accumulated deficit of -$130mm.
    • P/E of -13.5. Price-to-tangible book is -4.8. Price-to-book is -20.
  • Imprivata: Signs Of Decline Heading Into Late December Lockup Expiration
    IMPR Fri, Dec. 12, 3:04 AM Don Dion 2 Comments

    Summary

    • On December 22, IMPR will end a 180-day lockup period; shareholders and company executives will find themselves newly able to trade their 17,768,578 shares.
    • This increase in available shares will likely lead to a dip in IMPR's share price, creating a short opportunity for decisive investors.
    • While IMPR's Q3 report contained some fairly promising details, mixed early indicators have set the stage for major pre-IPO insiders, including three influential VC firms, to cash out.
    • As research shows price declines leading up to and following the lockup expiration, we suggest investors sell in advance to take full advantage of the likely decline.
  • A Short Sale Materializes For Materialise NV
    MTLS Fri, Dec. 12, 1:55 AM Don Dion 7 Comments

    Summary

    • December 22 marks the end of the 180 day lockup period on MTLS, at which point its major pre-IPO shareholders (individuals and firms) will be allowed to sell their holdings.
    • Typically, this sudden increase in available shares leads to an appreciable decrease in share price, particularly in the weeks leading up to/following the event.
    • MTLS serves a number of industries with its 3D printing, software and engineering competencies.
    • With poor market performance, insiders could be itching to cash out and move on; we see a short opportunity materializing.
  • IPO Preview: Metaldyne Performance Group
    MPG Fri, Dec. 12, 12:29 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • A leading provider of highly-engineered components for use in Powertrain and Safety-Critical Platforms for the global light, commercial and industrial vehicle markets.
    • 100% to selling shareholder.
    • Revenue +4%; 16% gross profit; 10.5 P/E; .4 price-to-sales; -1.1 price-to-tangible book.
    • Net income +73% (preparing for IPO), growth can't be sustained. .46% dividend rate, too low to be meaningful.
  • IPO Preview: James River Group Holdings
    JRVR Fri, Dec. 12, 12:15 AM IPOdesktop 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Bermuda-based insurance holding company that owns and operates a group of specialty insurance and reinsurance companies.
    • 100% by selling shareholders; Goldman is selling most of its shares.
    • Rev +8%. P/E of 13.7.
    • Price-to-book of .8. Price-to-tangible book of 1.1.
  • IPO Preview: Avolon Holdings Limited
    AVOL Fri, Dec. 12, 12:05 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • A leading global aircraft leasing company focused on acquiring, managing and selling commercial aircraft.
    • Priced in same range as AerCap. Discount to Air Lease.
    • Rev +33%; net income +12%.
    • 12.9 P/E; price-to-sales of 3.1. Price-to-book of 1.3. 3% tax rate.
  • LendingClub Goes Public: Why It Matters For Investors
    LC Thu, Dec. 11, 10:24 PM Evan Buck 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Peer-to-peer loan company LendingClub saw its shares soar in their Thursday debut.
    • The San Francisco, California-based firm has seen impressive growth numbers, notching over $1 billion in loans in 2014 and over $5 billion since 2007.
    • I feel that an investment in LendingClub is comparable to an investment in Amazon prior to the Internet boom.
    • Despite potential short-term, post-IPO volatility and concerns about peer-to-peer loans, LendingClub presents a unique opportunity for investors to participate in a budding, growing sector.
  • Benchmarking Box's Updated S-1: How 7 Key SaaS Metrics Stack Up
    Editors' Pick BOX Thu, Dec. 11, 6:36 PM Tomasz Tunguz Comment!
  • Polar Star Realty Trust IPO: Add Some International Real Estate To Your Portfolio
    PSRT Thu, Dec. 11, 7:42 AM Chris Katje 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Nordic region offers AAA rating and is expected to see strong GDP growth.
    • Dividend yield will be around 6% depending on where shares price.
    • Portfolio of properties is largely tilted to government related tenants.
  • Lending Club IPO Won't Break Records, But Will It Make Investors Wealthy?
    LC Thu, Dec. 11, 5:19 AM Khurram Aziz 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Lending Club has raised its expected IPO price range to $12-$14.
    • It plans to sell 57,700,000 shares, at $12 the expected income will be $692 million.
    • Lending Club is banking on the success of the Alibaba IPO to draw interest.
    • The company has facilitated loans over $1 billion in 2014, over $5 billion since 2007.
    • Lending Club boasts even steeper growth than Alibaba.
  • IPO Preview: Lending Club
    LC Thu, Dec. 11, 1:28 AM IPOdesktop 2 Comments

    Summary

    • World’s largest online marketplace connecting borrowers and investors.
    • Rev +122%. Operating income +176%.
    • Price-to-sales of 21, definitely in the high range. Price-to-book of 6.1.
  • IPO Preview: Momo
    MOMO Thu, Dec. 11, 12:36 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • Mobile-based social networking platform. MOMO enables users to establish and expand social relationships based on location and interests.
    • Rev +60%. Loss -87% of rev.
    • Price-to-sales of 73 (too high).
    • Per share dilution -$-11.30 vs IPO mid-range of $13.5.
  • IPO Preview: Polar Star Realty Trust
    PSRT Thu, Dec. 11, 12:26 AM IPOdesktop 1 Comment

    Summary

    • REIT that acquires, owns, leases, manages and redevelops office and industrial properties located primarily in Norway, Sweden and Denmark.
    • Expected yield of 6%.
    • Price-to-book of 1.8. Price-to-tangible book of 1.2. Apparent accounting inconsistency because priced to tangible book should always be equal to or greater than price-to-book.
  • Hold Off On Hortonworks IPO
    HDP Wed, Dec. 10, 5:56 PM Don Dion 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Hortonworks’ $78 million Nasdaq IPO is scheduled for this Friday, 12.12.2014. The firm will offer 6 million shares. Lead underwriters are Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, RBC Capital Markets.
    • Hortonworks is a primary support company to Apache Hadoop, an open source, big data platform. Revenue is generated exclusively by subscription and support fees.
    • Yahoo! and Benchmark Capital, who own 19.6% and 18.7% stakes, respectively; Hewlett-Packard also holds a ~5% stake.
    • Despite big-name supporters and customers, HDP's losses have increased. We suggest investors consider holding off on this IPO.
  • Peak Resorts: A Smooth Ride Up The Hill
    SKIS Wed, Dec. 10, 5:25 PM Don Dion 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite a disappointing IPO, SKIS is a strong buy for aggressive investors.
    • SKIS is one of the five top ski companies in the nation.
    • Boosted by IPO proceeds, SKIS is paying down debt and substantial quarterly dividends are on the horizon.
    • With gas prices down and the economy in recovery, travel and recreation are on the rise; an early Thanksgiving snowstorm has kicked off the 2014-2015 season to a strong start.
    • More white snow is on the way this week, which could provide for profitable Christmas and New Year long weekends.
  • Clear Skies Ahead For Avolon IPO
    AVOL Wed, Dec. 10, 5:02 PM Don Dion 2 Comments

    Summary

    • AVOL is planning to raise ~ $360 million in its impending IPO, set for Friday, 12.12.2014; lead underwriters are Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley.
    • The Dublin, Ireland based company purchases, manages, sells and leases commercial aircraft; its IPO could rank AVOL in the top five publicly traded aircraft leasing companies.
    • We are very encouraged by AVOL’s strong and growing revenues, net income, underwriting and PE-backing and strongly suggest investors consider buying.
  • Outlook Sunny For Bermuda-Based James River IPO
    JRVR Wed, Dec. 10, 2:14 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • Bermuda-based property and casualty insurance company JRVR plans to raise $250,000,000+ with its approaching initial public offering (IPO), set for Friday, 12.12.2014.
    • Lead Underwriters: BMO Capital Markets, FBR Capital Markets, Keefe Bruyette and Woods, UBS; majority shareholders D.E. Shaw and Goldman Sachs will receive all iPO proceeds.
    • While this is somewhat concerning, for the year ended December 31, 2013, net income jumped to over $67,000,000 from $8,664,000 in 2012.
    • Being based in Bermuda could give the firm an edge in a very competitive industry.
    • We suggest investors consider buying in.
  • New Relic IPO Could Be A Hot Deal
    NEWR Tue, Dec. 9, 6:20 PM Don Dion 2 Comments

    Summary

    • NEWR is anticipated to raise just shy of $100,000,000 in its forthcoming initial public offering, set for this Friday. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are lead underwriters.
    • San Francisco-based NEWR provides cloud-based products to analyze large quantities of data gathered across multiple mobile apps and websites for businesses.
    • Although NEWR reported a loss of $40 million on $63 million in revenue, for 2014 the company is currently on track to exceed $100 million in revenue.
    • In a booming year for tech IPOs, NEWR could be the next hot deal.
  • Infographic - How Much Is Lending Club Stock Worth?
    LC Tue, Dec. 9, 4:02 PM Efficient Alpha 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Unique business model makes estimation difficult but investors can look to other finance companies for guidance.
    • On strong sales growth, the challenge will be controlling costs and improving margins.
    • Sales could reach $1.1 billion by 2017 with EPS of $0.92 per share and a target of $28.