Seeking Alpha
  • The Habit Is Setting The Bar For Fast Food IPOs
    HABT Today, 8:50 AM Khurram Aziz 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The Habit Restaurants has a strong financial position and a history of positive growth sales.
    • Habit has a lighter debt obligation than El Pollo Loco or Zoe’s Kitchen. At 31 percent, the debt load is incredibly small for a restaurant chain.
    • Habit has had 43 consecutive quarters of positive growth.
    • The restaurant chain has been in business since 1969.
    • Fortune magazine ranked Habit burgers as one of the best in the country in 2014.
  • A Hoedown For Boot Barn Holdings' Quiet Period Expiration
    BOOT Yesterday, 10:16 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • On November 24th, the quiet period ended for the underwriters of BOOT; on November 25th, these underwriters issued positive research reports on the firm.
    • In response to the release of these reports from underwriters, it is likely that BOOT's share price will experience a short-term rise; our studies show this as ~5%.
    • BOOT benefits from industry-wide growth patterns; improving same-store sales growth; and strong early trading sessions.
    • We suggest the quiet period expiration as a chance for investors to buy into a burgeoning firm.
  • Antero Midstream Partners: A Flood Of Positive News Could Send This MLP Even Higher
    AM Wed, Nov. 26, 10:41 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • December 1 marks the end of the quiet period for AM, the partnership for Denver-CO-based Antero Resources.
    • Research has shown the seven days surrounding the end of the quiet period (five days before to two days after) frequently produce above market returns.
    • There has been a flood of energy IPOs in 2014 - many of them MLPs, such as AM; these have largely been successful.
    • With strong backing and revenues, AM is looking very attractive ahead of its quiet period expiration.
  • Sientra: Implant Manufacturer Looks Attractive As Quiet Period Ends
    SIEN Tue, Nov. 25, 10:57 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • The SEC-required 25-day quiet period on SIEN is set to expire Monday, 11.24.2014; SIEN’s IPO underwriters will likely publish positive reports on SIEN at this time.
    • Research shows above-market returns in the days preceding and following a firm's quiet period expiration--particularly if coverage is initiated by more than one firm.
    • Based in Santa Barbara, CA, Sientra has supplied silicone gel breast implant products to plastic surgeons since 2003.
    • Given SIEN's steady sales increase, we see the upcoming event as another opportunity to buy into a growing firm.
  • RIP Care.com 2014 Bull
    CRCM Tue, Nov. 25, 6:45 AM Dallas Salazar 5 Comments

    Summary

    • CRCM has been a disappointment since its IPO and doesn't appear to have much hope on the horizon.
    • CRCM could be forced to take a Goodwill impairment soon as its operating results have decayed to a point that should require more frequent testing.
    • CRCM isn't a deep value play, it's a sell or an avoid at this point and going forward.
  • Second Sight - Open Your Eyes To This Disruptive Business
    EYES Tue, Nov. 25, 3:17 AM The Value Investor Comment!

    Summary

    • Second Sight allows blind people to "see" again.
    • The disruptive implants being developed offer great appeal to patients, and potentially to long-term investors as well.
    • A potential investment in the company carries a great deal of risks, but could pay off big time in the long haul.
  • Habit Restaurants - Strong Growth Is Already Reflected In The Huge Post-IPO Run
    HABT Tue, Nov. 25, 2:42 AM The Value Investor 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Habit Restaurants witnessed a hugely successful offering this past week.
    • Strong growth, a compelling value proposition and profitability drive the appeal.
    • Following the huge returns witnessed already, I am more cautious at current levels.
  • Quiet Period Expiration For Shell Midstream Partners Could Be A Well-Oiled Play
    SHLX Mon, Nov. 24, 12:32 PM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • The quiet period for SHLX, whose IPO debuted in late October, is scheduled to expire on November 24th.
    • SHLX's pipeline systems link major offshore and onshore production regions with critical refining markets to major demand markets.
    • Along with SHLX's growing revenues and net income, its upcoming (likely positive) analyst reports could boost the firm even higher; studies show returns of 2%-6% during this event period.
    • We suggest investors consider buying in ahead of the quiet period expiration to take advantage of the forecasted short-term jump.
  • Is Virgin America Set To Continue Soaring?
    VA Mon, Nov. 24, 2:28 AM Evan Buck 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Lower-cost airliner Virgin America enjoyed a 30% increase in its share price on its first day of trading.
    • Despite a robust balance sheet, it is difficult to put a value on Virgin America’s shares due to its recent refinancing of debt.
    • While Virgin America is part of a strong industry, its ability to facilitate future growth is questionable.
    • Other airliners, like American Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines, seem to be more attractive investments in the airline industry.
  • Signs From The Paramount IPO
    PGRE Sun, Nov. 23, 3:32 AM Llenrock Group Comment!
  • Neff Corp. Poised To Prosper; Investors Should Consider Buying In At IPO
    NEFF Sat, Nov. 22, 9:19 AM Don Dion 3 Comments

    Summary

    • NEFF amended and re-filed to launch an IPO this Friday, 11.21.2014, for a ~$210 million raise on 10.47 million shares.
    • We are encouraged by Neff's increasing revenues; Rental Equipment Register (RER) ranks Neff #12 in their RER 100, noting growth in all key metrics.
    • We suggest investors consider buying into this IPO.
  • Continental Building Products: The Stock You'll Regret Not Buying
    CBPX Sat, Nov. 22, 9:11 AM Dallas Salazar 4 Comments

    Summary

    • CBPX put on an absolute smoke show during Q3.
    • CBPX has deleveraged, grown sales, and converted 90% of EBITDA to cash flow during Q3.
    • CBPX shares continue to trade at a significant discount to peers.
  • Investors Should Stay Inside For Peak Resorts' IPO
    SKIS Sat, Nov. 22, 12:31 AM Don Dion 3 Comments

    Summary

    • SKIS filed with the SEC to IPO on NASDAQ this Friday, 11.21.2014; SKIS plans to raise ~$100 million.
    • While we are encouraged by PEAK’s increased revenues, reported net losses are concerning.
    • Mention of a dividend is encouraging, along with committed management.
    • Until SKIS can prove its ability to capitalize in cold climates, we suggest investors hold off.
  • Recent Secondary Offerings In These Stocks Highlight The Risks Of IPO Investing
    GPRO Fri, Nov. 21, 3:15 PM Michael Maggi, CFA 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares of GoPro and El Pollo Loco are down sharply today following the pricing of their follow-on offering.
    • Recently, many high-flying and high-profile IPOs have performed poorly following these recent secondary offerings.
    • This volatile pricing action should serve as a reminder to investors who consider investing in IPOs.
  • IPO Preview: Neff Corporation
    NEFF Fri, Nov. 21, 12:30 AM IPOdesktop 2 Comments

    Summary

    • A leading regional equipment rental company in the United States, focused on the fast-growing Sunbelt states.
    • Per share dilution is 226% of mid-range price.
    • Proforma Interest expense is 72% of operating income. NEFF proforma Sept 9 mos P/E of 84, too high.
    • NEFF P/E of 44 based on proforma 2013. URI & HEES have P/Es of around 25.
    • Only NEFF has a negative book value, compared to URI & HEES.
  • IPO Preview: Peak Resorts
    SKIS Fri, Nov. 21, 12:27 AM IPOdesktop 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Currently operates 13 ski resorts primarily located in the Northeast and Midwest, 12 of which SKIS owns.
    • Selling 71% on IPO, a weaknesss.
    • Results depend on erratic snowfalls. P/E of 93 for April '14 fiscal.
  • FX Headwinds Cause This IMS Health Bull To Go Risk-Off
    Editors' Pick IMS Thu, Nov. 20, 3:42 PM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • Sadly, I have to sell away my IMS position, taking home only half the return that IMS offered just weeks ago.
    • IMS exposure to USD strength and its inability to hedge against this in size will allow margin contraction and income statement pressure to continue into the mid-term.
    • I think IMS is a long-term core position, but I cant own shares into what is highly visible bottom line pressure from FX.
  • Buying Opportunity For Proteon Therapeutics As Quiet Period Expires
    PRTO Thu, Nov. 20, 12:59 PM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • The quiet period for Waltham, MA-based PRTO expired on November 17.
    • On November 18, PRTO's IPO underwriters, including JMP Securities, Stiffel Nicolaus & Co., Oppenheimer and Robert W. Baird & Co., could boost PRTO's price by issuing positive research reports.
    • PRTO got off to a weak start on the market, and has been trading in a narrow range since, leaving room for appreciation.
    • We suggest investors consider this event a buying opportunity.
  • DBV Technologies: Spoon-Feeding Investors A Buying Opportunity
    DBVTF Thu, Nov. 20, 11:16 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • November 17 marks the quiet period expiration for France-based DBVT, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, developing treatments for pediatric patients with food allergies.
    • The seven days surrounding the expiration of a quiet period (five days before and two days after) frequently produce above-market returns.
    • DVBT’s strong start trading and subsequent leveling off leaves room for a strong boost at the expiration of the quiet period.
    • We suggest investors consider buying into DVBT near the event date.
  • Neothetics Appears A Bit Gaunt, Heading Into IPO
    NEOT Thu, Nov. 20, 8:32 AM Don Dion 2 Comments

    Summary

    • San-Diego-based NEOT plans to raise ~$60 million in its scheduled IPO, set to price Wednesday night, 11.19.2014.
    • NEOT is a biotech firm, developing a drug (injectable) that aims to reduce excess fat around the abdomen, generally called “love handles."
    • While demand for reducing abdominal fat is significant it is questionable how many will actually choose NEOT’s treatments, given the plethora of information and support for healthy diets and exercise.
    • We are less than encouraged by NEOT's relatively small team of underwriters and reported losses - and suggest investors consider holding off.
  • Adama Agricultural: We Remain Cautious On This Burgeoning IPO
    ADAM Thu, Nov. 20, 7:25 AM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • Israel-based ADAM is set to price its IPO Thursday night, 11.20.2014; underwriters include Goldman Sachs and BofA Merrill Lynch, among an already powerful lineup.
    • ADAM has cornered its market with leading global sales in herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides; these are used in over 120 countries.
    • We are concerned about ADAM's $1.96 billion debt--to which a large portion of its IPO proceeds will go--along with its first, disappointing IPO in Tel Aviv.
    • We suggest investors remain cautious on this IPO.
  • Second Sight Sees Double: Year's 6th IPO To Soar 100% On Day One
    EYES Thu, Nov. 20, 5:10 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research 2 Comments
  • IPO Preview: Habit Restaurants
    HABT Thu, Nov. 20, 3:43 AM IPOdesktop 5 Comments

    Summary

    • High-growth, fast casual restaurant concept that specializes in preparing fresh, made-to-order char-grilled burgers and sandwiches.
    • Market potential 2000 units, currently 99 units. P/E of 73, price-to-sales of 2.3.
    • Rev +49%, Adj net income +50%, total restaurants +36%.
  • IPO Preview: Cnova N.V.
    CNV Thu, Nov. 20, 3:38 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • One of the largest global eCommerce companies, with operations in Europe, Latin America, Asia and Africa.
    • Per share dilution about the same as IPO mid-point. Adjusted operating profit a minuscule .04%.
    • -81 P/E, price-to-tangible book of 95, 1.5 price to sales (this is attractive to institutions).
  • IPO Preview: Neothetics
    NEOT Thu, Nov. 20, 3:33 AM IPOdesktop 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Seeking approval of lead product candidate, LIPO-202, for the reduction of central abdominal bulging due to subcutaneous fat in non-obese patients, an indication for which there is no FDA-approved drug.
    • Stockholders & others may purchase up to $27mm, 45%.
    • Price-to-book of 2.9. P/E of -17.5 indicating moderate cash burn relative to market cap.
    • No collaborators. Targeting an aesthetic market. Top line Phase 3 results expected end of '15.
  • Stay Away From eHi Car Services
    EHIC Thu, Nov. 20, 1:55 AM Mix Star Comment!

    Summary

    • eHi Car Services came in at low end of IPO forecast.
    • Company has been marred with allegations of fraud.
    • It may be best to avoid the company until allegations are put to rest.
  • Cnova IPO: Growing Losses Give Us Pause, Despite Favorable Environment
    CNV Wed, Nov. 19, 4:52 PM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • E-commerce giant CNV, with operations in Latin America, Africa, Europe and Asia, plans to raise $355 million in its scheduled IPO, set to price Wednesday night, November 19.
    • Several e-commerce IPOs in 2014 have seen success, including BABA, COUP, GRUB, JD, and JMEI.
    • We are concerned about CNV’s losses, which have more than tripled since 2012, and the mixed economic outlook for Brazil, which could weigh on CNV's sales.
    • We suggest investors consider holding off on CNV at the time of its IPO.
  • Habit Restaurants IPO Looks Piping Hot
    HABT Wed, Nov. 19, 3:40 PM Don Dion 15 Comments

    Summary

    • HABT is set to price its ~$75 million Nasdaq IPO on Wednesday night, 19 November.
    • Following the favorable trend of other recent US restaurant chain IPOs, such as LOCO, PLAY, and ZOES, HABT could be piping hot.
    • Both revenues and net income were up significantly last year; low prices and plans for expansion could continue to bode well for HABT.
    • We suggest investors consider buying in.
  • As China Opens For Additional Investment, Jumei International's Major Shareholders Could Be Preparing To Sell
    JMEI Wed, Nov. 19, 3:22 PM Don Dion 8 Comments

    Summary

    • December 8 concludes the 180-day lockup period on JMEI; this will give JMEI’s pre-IPO shareholders, executives and directors the chance to sell their ~100 million shares.
    • The sudden increase in shares available for public trading could lead to a significant decrease in the price of JMEI shares.
    • We see a short opportunity on the horizon as JMEI’s pre-IPO shareholders will likely be ready to take profits.
  • eHi Car Services: This IPO Is Unattractive Under Peer Comparison
    EHIC Wed, Nov. 19, 3:03 PM Henry Cheung Comment!

    Summary

    • The industry is highly competitive and fragmented. The company, as the second largest car rental provider, only owned 2.1% of the market in 2013.
    • The widening loss reported in the income statement of the most recent quarter serves as an alarming signal to investors before the management sheds some light on the details.
    • Detailed analysis on valuations and operating data of the company and the industry leader, Car Inc. The comparison shows that Car Inc. is a better investment at the moment.
  • IPOs: eHi Sputters; Huayi, iQiyi Raise Funds
    EHIC Wed, Nov. 19, 2:16 PM Doug Young Comment!
  • Boot Barn: A Recent IPO With Potential For 35% Upside
    BOOT Wed, Nov. 19, 1:30 PM Value Wagon 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Boot Barn is a Western and workwear retailer that IPO'd last month (October 2014).
    • Neither the company's historical growth nor its future growth story are reflected in its current price.
    • A conservative valuation analysis yields an upside of 35%, with a $27 price target.
    • Boot Barn presents a fantastic risk-reward profile for any investor.
  • Is Second Sight Medical Products The Most Interesting And Disruptive Technology IPO Of The Year?
    EYES Wed, Nov. 19, 10:01 AM Lou Basenese 6 Comments

    Summary

    • After successfully commercializing technology to restore hearing to the deaf, billionaire Alfred Mann is now setting out to restore vision to the blind.
    • Company has no direct competitors and is already commercializing its high-margin technology (roughly 90 patients treated to date).
    • Dominant IP portfolio provides distinct competitive advantage in a large addressable market.
    • Expansion plans into direct cortical stimulation holds potential for Second Sight to own a platform technology.
    • Heavily oversubscribed IPO, plus unique Long Term Investor Right could lead to significant price increase in first day of trading.
  • A Second Strong REIT IPO This Week: Paramount Group Could Head Higher
    PGRE Wed, Nov. 19, 9:38 AM Don Dion 1 Comment

    Summary

    • NYC-based REIT, PGRE, is set to price its NYSE IPO Wednesday night, 11.19.2014.
    • If successful, this would be the largest IPO by an REIT to date.
    • PGRE has posted impressive growth figures; its leading position in the industry and backing by strong underwriters could help this deal to success.
    • An expected yield of 2.17% is also encouraging.
    • We suggest investors consider buying in.
  • Diplomat Pharmacy: An Incredible Run So Far Is Just The Beginning
    DPLO Wed, Nov. 19, 8:52 AM Dallas Salazar 12 Comments

    Summary

    • DPLO is up 50% in 35 days - a run that has been fueled by more and more good news.
    • DPLO has an incredible set of operations that only got better with two accretive acquisitions.
    • DPLO should be FCF generating going forward and with no debt that puts them in position for more acquisitions.
  • Miller/Howard High Income Equity Fund Pricing Next Week
    HIE Wed, Nov. 19, 5:52 AM Celan Bryant 1 Comment

    Summary

    • This fund will be priced during the week of 11/24 and will be listed under the name HIE.
    • A large portion of the fund's distribution will come from dividends and distributions from portfolio securities.
    • The Fund intends to use debt and options to achieve the target distribution rate.
  • IPO Preview: Paramount Group
    PGRE Wed, Nov. 19, 12:37 AM IPOdesktop 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Vertically-integrated real estate companies REIT focused on owning, operating and managing high-quality, Class A office properties.
    • Expected to yield 2.17% at price range mid-point.
    • Compared to BXP and BPO, 'in the range', see 'valuation' below.
    • Selling 54% on the IPO.
  • IPO Preview: Second Sight Medical Products
    EYES Wed, Nov. 19, 12:33 AM IPOdesktop 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Medical device company that develops, manufactures and markets implantable visual prosthetics to restore some functional vision to blind patients.
    • Implanted about 90 units of current product.
    • Laying foundation for major sales growth.
    • Sept. 9 mos rev +88%. Gross margin improved to -14% from -306%. Operating loss is -851% of rev.
  • Paramount Group's IPO Will See Great Investor Demand
    PGRE Tue, Nov. 18, 2:35 PM Mix Star 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Paramount Group will likely have largest IPO for a U.S REIT.
    • The company plans to raise more than 2.5 billion.
    • Investor demand may lead to great immediate gains.
  • IPO For STORE Capital Corporation Looks Well Built
    STOR Tue, Nov. 18, 2:08 PM Don Dion Comment!

    Summary

    • Arizona-based STOR, a REIT that invests primarily in middle market and single tenant properties, is set to price its IPO Monday night, 11.17.
    • STOR is offering 27,500,000 shares at an expected price range of $17 to $19 per unit; lead underwriters include Credit Suisse Securities, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley LLC.
    • STOR published strong and growing revenues, net income, and stockholders equity for the nine months ended September 30, 2014.
    • We suggest investors consider buying in.
  • The NYFEX Report: The IPO Of Navios Maritime Midstream Partners
    NAP Tue, Nov. 18, 1:15 PM Lambros Papaeconomou 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Inaugural report on capital markets & the shipping industry.
    • Navios Group floats yet another MLP despite adverse capital market conditions.
    • Cash distributions by an MLP are different than corporate dividends.
    • Residual risk may have weighted on NAP pricing its IPO below target range.
  • Smart & Final Stores Early Adopters Will Look Smart For Years To Come
    SFS Tue, Nov. 18, 10:57 AM Dallas Salazar Comment!

    Summary

    • SFS has shown excellent comp and net sales growth as well as pricing increases across its umbrella of stores.
    • With no legacy book of larger box stores to manage I feel that the square footage of SFS's portfolio of stores provides a significant competitive advantage.
    • Reduced debt via IPO financing, growing comps and net sales, FCF generation, and a very flexible leasing and expansion ability make SFS buy.
  • IPO Preview: STORE Capital Corporation
    STOR Tue, Nov. 18, 6:17 AM IPOdesktop Comment!

    Summary

    • REIT, that is a leader in the acquisition, investment and management of Single Tenant Operational Real Estate.
    • Discount to Realty Income (O), see 'valuation' below.
    • Expected yield is 5.6% at price range mid-point.
  • Benchmarking New Relic's S-1: How 7 Key SaaS Metrics Stack Up
    Editors' Pick NEWR Mon, Nov. 17, 7:35 PM Tomasz Tunguz Comment!
  • Papa Murphy's: Incremental Improvements Put The Short Story On Hold For At Least One Quarter
    FRSH Mon, Nov. 17, 1:30 PM Dallas Salazar 2 Comments

    Summary

    • FRSH surprised with its uptick in comp store sales and its key metric improvements.
    • If FRSH can show its non-cheese based product sales traction has staying power that would push out the short case further than one quarter.
    • With no obvious negative share price catalysts on the horizon prior to Q4 numbers I won't look to short shares prior to that point.
  • What To Make Of Hortonworks' IPO Filing
    HDP Mon, Nov. 17, 11:57 AM Khurram Aziz Comment!

    Summary

    • Hortonworks is the first Hadoop company to file for an IPO.
    • Hortonworks sales are up $10.9 million in 2014, but there net loss is up, as well.
    • Cloudera and MapR are Hortonworks main competitors, each of them have a different business model than Hortonworks and both of them add additional layers of revenue.
    • Hortonworks services is a pure open source software (OSS) business, they do not sell software.
    • Hadoop is an open-source software framework for distributed storage and distributed processing of large amounts of data by using a network of computers.
  • Week Ahead: 10 U.S. IPOs Planned For The Week Of November 17 Including The Largest REIT To Go Public
    CNV, HABT, PGRE Mon, Nov. 17, 9:17 AM Renaissance Capital IPO Research Comment!
  • IPOs: Year-End Rush Fizzles As eHi Skids, Sky Solar Cuts
    EHIC, SKYS Mon, Nov. 17, 8:58 AM Doug Young 3 Comments
  • PRA Health Sciences - Cautious Note On This CRO Offering
    PRAH Mon, Nov. 17, 3:19 AM The Value Investor Comment!

    Summary

    • PRA Health Sciences is another contract research company making its public debut.
    • The KKR-backed business has grown by deals, and carries along a heavy debt load.
    • The premium valuation, high leverage and existence of informed investors who are selling, makes me cautious.
  • Axalta - Successful Debut, Little Appeal
    AXTA Sun, Nov. 16, 11:45 PM The Value Investor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Axalta has seen a successful public debut last week.
    • Investors like the coatings system business given its strong market positioning.
    • Appeal is limited in my eyes amidst a full valuation, the leverage employed and the exit of a sophisticated investor.