Mr. Valuation Disagrees With Henry Blodget: 'It's A Market Of Stocks' Is Not A Meaningless Phrase
- "It's a market of stocks, not a stock market" is a meaningful phrase.
- Every prudent long-term investor should start out every investing day by chanting this phrase.
- There are common stocks of companies within the market that dramatically outperform.
What's So Special About One Liberty Properties' 6.6% Yield?
- Most all investors are seeking that one true gem that supports robust and sustainable economic profits - with shares that can be held for long periods of time.
- I'm not seeing the value proposition for a $385 million REIT that invests in a smörgåsbord of everything.
- There's really nothing special about One Liberty Properties. As my mother used to say: "Always buy quality, the cream rises to the top".
Analyzing The FTSE 100 For Opportunities
- A detailed list of the FTSE 100.
- Several popular metrics are used.
- The cheapest on a free cash flow basis.
- Quality companies to look out for.
The Trace Of Wisdom Analysis For STORE Capital
- STORE has become somewhat of an outlier (in the Net Lease space) by advancing its share price, an opposite trends for most “bond-like” participants.
- Maybe there’s a good reason to hop on STORE, so I don’t get left at the door.
- Hopefully Oaktree will give me an opportunity in May as the company begins to prune back exposure (Oaktree controls over 70% of total shares).
- "Successful investors manage to acquire that necessary “trace of wisdom” that Ben Graham calls for”. Howard Marks.
A Disciplined Investor's Recap Of Realty Income's 2014 Annual Report
- Analysts and investors should always consult reports and other documents wherever possible to gain a competitive advantage within the due diligence process.
- Realty Income's Annual Report cover illustrates a rowboat with these words at the top: Disciplined. Proven. Consistent.
- A moat-worthy brand manifests itself as pricing power or a model of repeatability that translates into sustainable profits.
- A sound investor should maintain some level of patience in hopes of establishing an entry price in order to commence an investment strategy aimed at principal preservation and wealth-compounding.
Adjusting For Lower-Than-Expected Returns In Retirement
- Most retirees fear their portfolio will underperform in retirement.
- With bond prices and stock prices at relatively high valuations, there is reason to believe future returns may trail their historical averages.
- This article discusses adjustments you can make if your retirement portfolio underperforms.
BioMed Looks Cheap, But Maybe There's A Good Reason
- Maybe Mr. Market is signaling that the risk with BioMed is much greater.
- While the shares may look cheap today, I would wait.
- Given the more recent risks that could add stress to earnings, I’m in a HOLD pattern.
Mr. Valuation Thinks AbbVie Will 'Humira' Us For A Few More Years
- It is not enough to simply identify a great company to invest in.
- You must also be careful to invest when valuation is sound.
- AbbVie currently represents a sound and attractive high-yield dividend growth opportunity.
DDR Is Moving The Bar But The Yield Is Sub-Par
- DDR has positioned itself as a leading owner of the larger, power centers.
- When I was referring to “green pastures” I meant it figuratively as the former CEO (Hurwitz) pocketed cash and stock compensation of $9.8 million.
- Bottom Line: I don’t see a margin of safety with DDR, the dividend yield is sub-par.
Verizon: Is 4.43% Greater Than 5.90%? Sometimes
- Verizon is held out by many as an attractive, dividend-paying stock, which it is.
- Investors have more than one way to invest in Verizon for income, and should explore their options.
- Verizon baby bonds present a compelling opportunity versus the equity, sometimes.
Microsoft And 'One-Time Investing'
- In 1999, shares of Microsoft were trading near $60 as compared to today’s mark closer to $40.
- Given this information, you might suppose that Microsoft has been a poor investment.
- This article details why this type of thinking could fall victim to the folly of “one-time investing”.
A Single Mother's Income - Dividend Growth Investing
- For the past four years I have known that I would be a single mother - someday.
- A 20-year consulting career rewarded me well (salary-wise), but doesn't translate well to part-time work.
- It has, however, given me a small asset base.
- Dividend Growth Investing is a key strategy in building my post-divorce income.
My Top First Quarter Pick Took Off Without Me
- It's important to understand that HASI is a REIT but it's really considered more of an investor in clean energy assets.
- HASI is referred to as the “Sustainable Yield” company and the short two-year history validates the brand message.
- Congratulations for those who got a seat on the train!
Capital Product Partners LP: A Dividend Investor's Dream (>10% Yield) At A Deep Value Price
- CPLP is an undervalued MLP in a sector whose fundamentals have drastically turned, leading to strong cash flows and a high likelihood management will raise the quarterly dividend on 4/30.
- CPLP currently yields >10%, despite double digit revenue growth in each of the past 3 years, consistent (high) profitability (61%+ EBITDA margins), & an unusually tight outlook in its markets.
- Tanker rates have risen drastically in YTD 2015; CPLP is undergoing contract renewals precisely when prices for its charters are at their peaks, thus locking daily rates at multiyear highs.
Adversity Was Bittersweet For This REIT
- As Donald Trump learned, the use of leverage can be bittersweet, it can send you to places you’ve never seen: the palace or the poor house.
- If Sears cannot find some magic inside its brick and mortar, the company could be in the same museum as TG&Y, Loehmann’s, S.H. Kress, F.W. Woolworth, Borders, and Circuit City.
- Mr. Market has already taken all of the sweetness out of GGP shares.
7% Raise For The Dividend Growth 50
- Every component in the DG50 has paid a dividend since the portfolio was funded on Dec. 16.
- Nearly half of the companies increased payouts during that time, resulting in an average raise of 7%.
- 3M had the highest rate of dividend growth, and KRFT experienced the best total return.
Do I Smell A Bargain At The Dividend Factory Outlet?
- I have yet to put my hands on shares of Tanger Factory Outlets; however, I may be getting closer to my goal.
- Last week Tanger announced that its Board had approved an 18.8% dividend increase.
- "In good times people love a bargain." Steve Tanger.
Comparing Prospect Capital Corp.'s NAV, Investment Portfolio, Dividend, And Valuation To Several BDC Peers - Part 2
- This article compares PSEC's recent dividend per share rates and yield percentages to several BDC peers.
- During the calendar fourth quarter of 2014, PSEC and FSC had yield percentages modestly to materially above the BDC peer average, thus supporting each company's recently announced dividend reductions.
- This analysis also compares PSEC's recent annualized weighted average yield on the company’s debt investments, weighted average cash LIBOR floor, and cost of funds rate to several BDC peers.
- My current buy, sell, or hold recommendation and dividend sustainability projection on each BDC company within this analysis is stated in the "Conclusions Drawn" section of the article.
The Up-And-Coming Dream Team REITs
- "Greatness is talent applied consistently." - Gary Player.
- Which REIT could become the next Realty Income or Federal Realty?
- I thought it would be interesting to compare the performance of the "Sweet 16" REITs, based upon my original recommendation date through today.
Anheuser-Busch Inbev: Truly The King Of Beers
- AB Inbev’s very strong market positions in many American markets effectively means it dominates the continent’s beer industry.
- Outside the Americas it has noteworthy presences in Europe and Asia but not the same level of dominance.
- The company’s acquisition record was continued during 2014 with the reacquisition of Oriental Brewery.
- AB Inbev lost market share in most of its markets but achieved very strong upward pricing which added further to industry-leading margins.
- Definitely among my brewing sector favorites but lofty valuation and currency disruptions make it unattractive at this price.
Omega Healthcare Is A Classic Textbook Model Of Repeatability
- Omega has plenty of gun powder now: no borrowings outstanding on its credit facility, and $340 million of cash.
- It's no secret that rising dividends translates into superior shareholder returns.
- The true meaning for this REIT is an investment model built on powerful sources of differentiation.
BreitBurn Energy Partners: Short-Term Pain For Long-Term Gains
- BBEP needed to secure capital to survive.
- The stock should rebound if oil prices were to recover.
- The preferred units trading under the ticker BBEPP offer a safer alternative to the common.
Until There's A Dividend, This REIT Remains A Pig In A Poke
- This REIT is definitely headed back up, but there are few other hurdles to clear before the stock trades north of $10.00.
- I have always viewed Cole as a highly conflictive piece of the ARCP puzzle.
- Two items are now checked off the list…but until I see a dividend paid, this REIT is (in my opinion) a “pig in the poke”.
- "A dividend payment is the ultimate sign of corporate strength". Josh Peters, Morningstar.
4.2% Dividend Duke Energy Should Benefit From The Dovish Fed And Growing Profits
- Duke Energy pays a 4.24% annual dividend. When interest rates go down, the prices of good utility stocks like Duke Energy tend to go up.
- The Fed on March 18, 2015 cut its Fed Funds rate raise expectation from 1.125% by Q4E 2015 to 0.625% by Q4E 2015. Lower rates ==> higher utility stock prices.
- The Fed also cut its economic outlook for both 2015 and 2016. As a result, the 10-year US Treasury Note yield is still heading downward.
- DUK is planning to grow its adjusted EPS by 4-6% through 2017.
Comparing Annaly Capital Management's BV, Dividend, Risk And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers - Part 2
- NLY, along with most mREIT peers, had a stable dividend per share rate during the first quarter of 2015 (a few peers within the sector had a dividend decrease).
- NLY continued to have yield percentages modestly below the agency mREIT average thus generally lowering the risk of dividend reductions going into the second quarter of 2015.
- AGNC and CYS had yield percentages near the agency mREIT average thus generally maintaining each mREIT peer’s risk of dividend reductions going into the second quarter of 2015.
- Even though WMC continued to have yield percentages materially above the hybrid mREIT average, the company has a more unique business model which needs to be considered regarding dividend sustainability.
- My current buy, sell, or hold recommendation and dividend sustainability projection on each mREIT company within this analysis is stated in the “Conclusions Drawn” section of the article.
Mr. Valuation's Best Valued Ideas For Retirement And Dividend Growth Portfolios: Cisco
- This series is designed to identify the most attractively valued dividend growth stocks in today's moderately overheated market.
- There are many important advantages and benefits that investors gain from being disciplined about valuation.
- Cisco Systems, Inc. has a S&P credit rating of AA-, a debt-to-capital ratio of 25%, a dividend yield exceeding 3%, and a compelling valuation.
- Bonus: For F.A.S.T. fundamental analysis, a live earnings and price correlated graph on Cisco Systems, Inc.
- Bonus: For F.A.S.T. fundamental analysis, 5 live earnings forecasting calculators on Cisco Systems, Inc.
This REIT Yielding 7.4% Should Benefit Investors When Rates Rise
- I'm focused on durable income, and that means no stocks with dividend volatility.
- REIT investors tend to fear rising rates, particularly investors in residential mortgage REITs, where many of the assets are fixed-rate but the liabilities float - but BXMT is different.
- BXMT has a lower risk profile today, and the dividend is now fully covered.
Rampant Mispricing Makes Specialty REITs An Interesting Space
- Specialty REITs are a new and fast growing sector.
- They are underfollowed and broadly misunderstood.
- We see the sector outperforming over the next couple years.
How Bond Bears (Especially In Japan) Lost So Much Money Since 2000
- Japanese Government Bonds have enjoyed a Sharpe Ratio of 0.8 since 2000, compared with 0.65 for U.S. Treasuries and 0.33 for higher-yield Australian Government Bonds.
- The excellent performance can be explained by a steep and steady yield curve, along with fundamentals that continue to favor long-term Japanese fixed income in yen terms.
- Shorting JGBs has long been called a "widow maker" trade for its consistent losses over the past decade (and recently via the JGBS and JGBD ETNs).
- While the author is less bullish on Japanese bonds now than in the past, there many better trades than trying to short them.
- Low absolute yields alone are no reason to be bearish on bonds - the worst bond bear markets typically happen when the yield curve is high and flat.
A Potential New REIT For The Durable Income Portfolio
- I have no desire to sell Digital Realty, as this stalwart REIT has provided me with outsized performance.
- There are notable catalysts that could drive CyrusOne's share price performance in 2015 and beyond.
- CyrusOne's expansion pipeline is highly predictable, and should support cash flow growth rates in excess of the peer group.
13% Dividend CYS Investments' Strategy Is Looking Better After The Dovish Fed Announcement
- CYS pays a 13.4% annual dividend. The dividend is a bit shaky in the current environment; but even if it gets cut, it should still be over 10%.
- CYS had a +$0.36 per common share book value gain in Q4 2014. It will likely see its $10.50 book value be flat or slightly higher after Q1 2015.
- The March 18, 2015 dovish U.S. Fed announcement should take possible skyrocketing interest rates off the table. This makes CYS a much less risky stock to own.
Mr. Valuation's Best Ideas For Retirement And Dividend Growth Portfolios: Emerson Electric
- Being only willing to invest in a stock when it is fairly valued is an important step that investors can take to ensure successful long-term returns.
- Emerson Electric, a Dividend Champion, high-quality, high-yield, attractive valuation, long-term opportunity.
- Bonus: For F.A.S.T. fundamental analysis, a live earnings and price correlated graph on Emerson Electric.
- Bonus: For F.A.S.T. fundamental analysis, 5 live earnings forecasting calculators on Emerson Electric.
- Bonus: For F.A.S.T. fundamental analysis, a live earnings and price correlated graph on the S&P 500.
Annaly Capital: 11% Dividend Should See Benefits From The Fed's New Dovish Stance
- NLY pays a 11.2% dividend, which seems likely to be maintained with the Q1 2015 report.
- The book value seems likely to be flat to slightly lower for Q1 2015, although it may gain book value toward the end of this quarter.
- The only problem spot may be a decrease in the net interest spread for Q1 2015. NLY will likely view this as temporary; and it will have little effect.
- The latest Fed announcement has taken away the fear of interest rates rising rapidly near term. It has also decreased the risk of skyrocketing rates in the next two years.
Here's The Pros And Cons Of Casino REITs To Consider Before You Become A Skeptic Or A True Believer
- REITs can provide breathing room for debt-heavy casino operators and reliable dividends for investors.
- New casinos in a market could cannibalize revenues and squeeze rent payments for propcos.
- REITs burden casino opcos with long-term contingent liabilities they can't control as easily as some conventional debt refis.
- How can you unlock realty value on single-purpose buildings?
- Penn National Gaming is a casino opco we like now at $16.
Prospect Capital Corp.'s Dividend And NAV Sustainability Analysis (Post Fiscal Q2 2015 Earnings) - Part 2
- Part 2 of this article discusses three topics/trends impacting PSEC’s future dividend and NAV sustainability.
- These three topics/trends discuss PSEC’s cash LIBOR floor, an FMV investment rating analysis, and a quarterly FMV gain (loss) analysis on the company’s debt and equity investments.
- PSEC’s investment portfolio continues to have several portfolio companies with moderate unrealized FMV losses (capital depreciation) thus raising the risk of the company’s future NAV sustainability.
- My exact PSEC dividend per share projections for May 2015 and June 2015 are stated in the “Conclusions Drawn” section of the article.
- My PSEC NAV per share range projections for the next several fiscal quarters are stated in the “Conclusions Drawn” section of the article.
BHP Billiton: Increasingly Attractive For Dividend Investors After The Demerger
- BHP Billiton spins off some of its non-core assets.
- BHP shareholders will receive South32 shares, and South32 plans to distribute at least 40% of its underlying earnings as dividends.
- With the combined dividends from BHP and South32, the yield is likely to approach 6%.
Don't Over Think It: Buy AT&T
- AT&T is trading down 12.5% from its 52-week high and offering investors a 5.74% dividend yield.
- I believe the company's upside outweighs the current downside. I'm expecting a 15% total return for 2015.
- This company has increased its annual dividend for 31 consecutive years and is addressing its free cash flow issues.
I Just Bought A High-Quality REIT With A Sound Margin Of Safety
- As the Blackstone overhang diminishes Brixmor should gain further independence and begin to trade closer to its peer group valuation range.
- With over 18 shopping centers in REIT-dom today, it's critical for every company to build an enduring strategy of differentiation.
- As I see it, Brixmor is a bargain – I'm buying a quality REIT at a discounted price.
- Mr. Market has undervalued shares in this company which has produced very reliable and predictable earnings.
Intel Has Given Dividend And Income Investors A Gift: Qualcomm
- As a dividend growth investor for retirement I'm amazed that there are times when I am given a little gift with seemingly bad news.
- While on the surface, the Intel "news" might appear wonderful for Intel, as far as I am concerned, it is a blessing in disguise for Qualcomm.
- The "gift" of increasing dividends just keeps on giving.
4.4% Dividend Health Care REIT Provides Steady Growth And Income
- HCN had a 48.5% total return for FY2014. Unfortunately, that probably means it is a little overvalued.
- The REIT has had a long-term uptrend in place since 2000.
- HCN pays a consistently growing 4.4% dividend, and it may be a good place for long-term investors to ride out troubles.
- The fundamentals behind HCN are outstanding. Even if the stock price falls, it is sure to go back up; and the company will pay you to wait.
S&P 500 Telecom Services Sector: AT&T Vs. Verizon - Who Wins The Battle Between Growth, Yield And Value?
- AT&T offers a higher current yield, a lower valuation, but a lower expectation for future earnings and dividend growth.
- Verizon offers a lower current yield, a sound valuation, and higher expectations for future earnings and dividend growth.
- AT&T vs. Verizon: Who wins the battle between growth, yield and value?
- And the future potential total return winner is?
I'm Waiting Patiently For Mr. Market To Ignore This Wide-Moat REIT
- There are obvious reasons why a market leader like Realty Income warrants a premium valuation, and I have touched on many of these in this article.
- I think it's appropriate to consider comparing Realty Income to other market leaders with a similar quality bias rating.
- While I have no crystal ball relating to the company's future share price movement, I believe investors will have a few more bites at the apple (before rates actually begin to rise).
- There could be some attractive buying opportunities during the next 90 days, and I consider it prudent to maintain some dry powder.
I'm Feeling Good About Physicians Realty's Vital Signs
- Last year I sold two Health Care REITs, and I believe that my decision to buy Physicians Realty was sound.
- In 2014, DOC completed $565 million worth of investments.
- DOC recently provided acquisition guidance of $500 million to $700 million for 2015.
- DOC should continue to benefit from solid macro trends in health care and the portfolio is well positioned to benefit from the expansion.
The Often Overlooked Danger When Investing In S&P 500 Utility Stocks - Part 10A
- One of the smallest sectors of the S&P 500 by weight is the Utilities Sector at 3% of the total index, and includes 29 of 500 constituents.
- The often overlooked danger when investing in utility stocks revealed.
- Almost by definition, utility stocks offer high yields, but tend to have very low historical rates of earnings and dividend growth.
- Be aware and cognizant of valuation when considering investments in utility stocks.
- Bonus: For F.A.S.T. fundamental analysis, a live earnings and price correlated graph on Southern Company is included.
DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think
- Are you a DGI investor? I am.
- Can you name the biggest risks to your DGI portfolio?
- DGI is widely seen as a simple and one-size-fits-all investing solution.
- DGI as an idea has great merit, but the way it's being practiced by many in 2015 raises grave concerns.
- This is the first in a series of articles on how to DGI invest responsibly.
2.2% Dividend Chesapeake Energy Represents Value And Growth At This Low
- Chesapeake Energy has $4.11B in cash and an undrawn upon $4B credit facility. It is in great fiscal condition.
- CHK is currently trading at a Price/Book of 0.74; and its current Book Value does not begin to reflect its real value as the recent $5.375B sale shows.
- CHK did NOT indicate it was considering cutting its 2.2% dividend in the near future in its Q4 2014 Conference Call.
- CHK is comparatively one of the best values in the unconventional oil and gas space. Plus, it was profitable in Q4 2014.
Kinder Morgan: Don't Be Fooled By The Nattering Nabobs Of Negativism
- Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain pipeline expansion plan continues to have trouble with the City of Vancouver and Burnaby. This is only the latest flare up between the parties.
- The expansion is a $5.4 billion plan to increase capacity of the Northwestern oil pipeline to 890,000 barrels per day throughput. The expansion plan would provide substantial tax revenue increases.
- The opposition will inevitably reach a fever pitch as the National Energy Board hearing draws near. In the following article, I will explain why it's really simply business as usual.
The Dividend Aristocrats And Higher Interest Rates
- High quality dividend stocks with a long track record of growing dividends through multiple business cycles, have outperformed the broader market over long time intervals.
- Some investors have expressed concern that higher interest rates could have a disproportionately negative impact on dividend-paying stocks.
- This article examines the absolute and relative performance of dividend paying stocks during periods of higher interest rates.
Has This Clean Energy REIT Left The Train Station?
- Mr. Market beat me to HASI's earnings release and I can now hear the engineer shouting, “all aboard”.
- I was originally attracted to HASI for the outsized dividend yield, and since my previous write-up some of the air has been let out of the balloon.
- I'm a dividend miles club member so I place a special premium on the dividend yield.
Comparing Annaly Capital Management's BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers - Part 1
- Part 1 of this article compares NLY’s recent quarterly and trailing twelve-month change in BV, quarterly economic return, and current valuation to several mREIT peers.
- Part 1 also performs a comparative analysis between each company’s MBS and derivative portfolios as of 12/31/2014.
- This comparative analysis includes each company’s proportion of fixed- and variable-rate agency MBS holdings (including each specific maturity), non-agency MBS holdings, and hedging coverage ratio as of 12/31/2014.
- As of 2/27/2015, NLY, AGNC, ARR, and CYS traded at a material discount to BV as of 12/31/2014, while WMC traded at a minor premium.
- My current buy, sell, or hold recommendation for NLY and each company analyzed is in the “Conclusions Drawn” section of the article.