Seeking Alpha
  • Tesla Faces Headwinds In Asia
    TSLA Today, 8:26 PM Nick Cox 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Chinese consumers showing reluctance to buy electric vehicles.
    • Japan seems to be going the hydrogen fuel cell route.
    • Australia promising but a limited volume market.
    • Elon Musk needs to give positive updates on China at results conference call.
  • J&J Snack Foods: 'Hold' Or 'Buy'?
    JJSF Today, 3:14 PM Wall Street Daily 2 Comments
  • Now Might Not Be The Best Time To Buy VF Corp
    VFC Today, 1:45 PM Jeroen Jongbloed 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Investors in VFC have seen amazing returns in recent years.
    • However, part of this is due to multiples expanding.
    • Despite a very impressive dividend increase, shares currently yield only 1.85%.
    • I wouldn't recommend buying at these levels.
  • You Were All Right - Wait For A Pullback Before Investing In Colgate-Palmolive
    CL Today, 6:22 AM Michael Grogan 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Colgate-Palmolive is significantly overvalued on a range of financial metrics.
    • The company is trading near a 10-year high P/E ratio, with a very high price to free cash flow ratio.
    • While the company has shown significant dividend growth over the years, it still has low dividend yield compared to competitors.
    • I see the $55-60 range as being a more reasonable entry point.
  • Digging Deeper Into The Q2 Results Of Procter & Gamble
    PG Today, 6:00 AM David Schauber, Jr. 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Procter & Gamble is feeling the pain from the strengthening dollar which has pushed net sales growth and core earnings per share growth into negative territory.
    • The underlying business, however, is still plugging along while posting 6% growth in currency-neutral core earnings per share for the quarter.
    • Pricing increases, cost savings, a supply chain redesign, divestment of low-performance brands, lower fuel prices, and product innovation should all drive results higher when the dollar comes back to earth.
  • Speculating On The Story At Avon Products Doesn't Seem A Winning Idea
    AVP Today, 2:03 AM George Hanley 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Beauty products seller Avon Products has struggled to find business momentum in FY2014, hurt by sales declines across its portfolio, especially in its reeling North America market.
    • The company's relatively weak financial performance has helped to produce a sell off for its stock price over the past year.
    • Despite a relatively favorable P/E multiple of roughly 9, Avon Products' dim profit growth prospects provides seemingly little support for a higher market valuation and investors should avoid the story.
  • It's Time For A Fresh Dividend Hike At Coca-Cola
    KO Today, 12:36 AM Dividend Appreciator 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Coca-Cola is well-known worldwide and operates in all but two countries.
    • Increased dividends for 51 years.
    • Will soon increase its dividend for the 52nd consecutive year by 6%-8%.
  • Is The Storm Over At Mattel?
    MAT Yesterday, 5:19 PM Scott Shander 6 Comments

    Summary

    • The company pulled all of the skeletons out of the closet and is positioning itself for a rebound as early as 2015.
    • MEGA Brands was up nicely in Q4 with Halo and Call of Duty being the culprits. Q4 sales increased $30M versus prior year figures.
    • As of now, the POS trajectory is better than where it was last year, but the company was cautious not to quantify this tailwind for 2015 yet.
  • Swift Transportation - Above-Average Risk Requires A Bigger Margin Of Safety
    SWFT Yesterday, 5:19 PM The Value Investor 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Swift Transportation reports solid results, and issues a comforting outlook for 2015.
    • Shares fall as the company does warn on tightness on the market for truck drivers, creating potential risks to margins later in 2015.
    • Given the leverage employed, a 15 times forward non-GAAP multiple seems fair enough.
    • Investors should remember that Swift is not comparable to UPS or FedEx, as it has more cyclical and leverage exposure.
  • U.S. Tobacco Industry Suffers Slow Death: Altria Trading At Premium Despite Major Headwinds
    MO Yesterday, 4:58 PM Henry Cao 50 Comments

    Summary

    • With both P/E and P/B multiples of 25, Altria trades at significant premium over peers.
    • US tobacco market continues to shrink.
    • E-Cigarette category is not the future for traditional tobacco firms.
    • It is time to sell Altria.
  • Outerwall An Interesting Contrarian Play
    OUTR Yesterday, 2:54 PM Brian Wu 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has continued to grossly undervalue Outerwall based on concerns about the sustainability of its DVD rental business.
    • Short interest in the company also remains very high as many investors count on the company failing to meet its financial targets.
    • There is a good likelihood that Outerwall will meet or even exceed its earlier guidance which might force the shorts to cover, making the shares a good contrarian play.
  • Paradise, Inc. - A Profitable Company Trading At A Discount To Liquidation Value
    PARF Yesterday, 9:38 AM Thinley Wangchuk Comment!

    Summary

    • Dominant market share with a sustainable moat in a mature market.
    • Dividends have been paid for over 10 years. Recession-proof earnings.
    • Shares are trading at the low end of the 10 year multiples and 52wk average.
  • Colgate-Palmolive Q4 Earnings Review
    CL Yesterday, 1:07 AM Javelin Comment!

    Summary

    • Net sales dipped by 3% relative to the same period last year as the company recorded $4.221 billion in net sales, compared to $4.361 billion last year.
    • The company beat expectations with its net income which showed an increase to $628 million as compared to $546 million recorded in the same quarter last year.
    • With slow growth in Brazil and the European economic downturn now confirmed, Colgate-Palmolive will not see increasing sales growth in either of the economic regions for 3 to 4 quarters.
    • The consumer goods company acquired a Myanmar-based toothpaste maker for around $100 million, the largest acquisition the South East nation has seen yet.
    • Overall, 2015 will not be too great of a year for Colgate-Palmolive, especially in terms of revenue growth which is crucial for a consumer goods company’s well-being.
  • Coach: Go Home Mr. Market, You're Drunk
    COH Fri, Jan. 30, 11:36 PM Josh Arnold 17 Comments

    Summary

    • COH has reported yet another unspeakably horrible quarter but the stock traded up seven percent on the news.
    • Nothing has changed as the fundamentals are still terrible with eye-popping declines in sales.
    • I still think COH is worth ~$22 or so and that whatever the reason for this pop after earnings, the bubble will pop at some point.
  • Gentex - Appeal Continues, Despite A Softer Quarter
    GNTX Fri, Jan. 30, 9:09 PM The Value Investor 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Gentex reports soft results, with sales hurt by the strong dollar and inventory de-stocking.
    • 2015 will see solid growth, although analysts have hoped for more.
    • The strong product portfolio, continued growth, strong balance sheet and fair valuation all drive appeal.
  • Insiders Can't Get Enough Of Greystone Logistics
    Editors' Pick GLGI Fri, Jan. 30, 7:12 PM Firebird Investments 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock is witnessing heavy insider buying.
    • Greystone has a $3M new customer.
    • The company has created a beverage pallet mold specifically for a major beer distributor.
    • Greystone has created a slim keg mold at MillerCoors' request.
    • MillerCoors' 2015 sales will be similar to 2014.
  • Why Toymakers Are Leaving Mattel In The Dust
    MAT Fri, Jan. 30, 5:32 PM Leigh Drogen 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Mattel CEO Bryan Stockton went down with the ship Monday resigning as the toy company pre-announced its abysmal holiday quarter results.
    • Earnings sank 51% from $1.07 per share to 52 cents and revenue slid from $2.11 billion to $1.99 billion.
    • In September Mattel lost its #1 toymaker status to competitor Lego.
  • The Clorox Company Dividend Stock Analysis
    CLX Fri, Jan. 30, 5:14 PM Dividends4Life 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The Clorox Company is a diversified producer of household cleaning, grocery and specialty food products, and is also a leading producer of natural personal care products.
    • As a consumer goods company, Clorox sells products with a stable demand that are generally not affected by changes in the economy.
    • Clorox's financial performance has been inconsistent. In the company's fiscal first quarter ended September 30, CLX struggled with unfavorable foreign currencies, primarily from Argentina as well as higher trade spending.
  • Procter & Gamble Offering Upside Potential As It Enters 2015
    PG Fri, Jan. 30, 4:36 PM Equity Watch 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Company’s strategic growth formula and ongoing innovations will re-grow sales results in coming years.
    • PG’s growth prospects will generate healthy cash flow growth for the company.
    • Stock offers an upside potential of approximately 14%.
  • Little Clarity, But Ample Concerns, With Oshkosh
    OSK Fri, Jan. 30, 4:19 PM Stephen Simpson, CFA Comment!

    Summary

    • Oshkosh reports much better than expected margins and strong orders, but Access is largely carrying the business at this point.
    • Greater penetration of Access equipment into emerging markets could become a significant driver in the future, but the biggest near-term driver is a potential multibillion-dollar defense award this summer.
    • There is a wider than normal range of outcomes for Oshkosh depending on the outlook for construction and winning/not winning the defense contract.
    • A fair value of $50 argues for upside from these levels, but the downside risk is substantial.
  • Shares Of Keurig Green Mountain Break Through Key Levels
    GMCR Fri, Jan. 30, 1:39 PM Seth Golden 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Key concerns pointed toward breakdown of share price.
    • Numerous analysts have talked down the expectations and ratings of the stock recently.
    • Keurig Choice is a new initiative that needs clarification for investors.
  • Lifeway Foods Is A New Niche In Health Food
    LWAY Fri, Jan. 30, 12:11 PM Sergio Heiber 6 Comments

    Summary

    • LWAY has began a national campaign.
    • Probiatic food is gaining market attention.
    • Profits will rise as milk prices are in a downturn.
  • Shaking Windows And Rattling Walls At Mattel
    MAT Fri, Jan. 30, 10:59 AM Kevin Donovan 2 Comments

    Summary

    • What Bob Dylan has to say to Barbie.
    • Big 4Q miss is big blow.
    • ...but dividend declaration is heartening.
  • Why I'm Long Mattel
    MAT Fri, Jan. 30, 10:33 AM Manuel A. Salceda 16 Comments

    Summary

    • 2014 was a bad year in every front except for Disney princesses and Frozen, but the future seems brighter than the present.
    • Even though MAT is not growing at such an amazing pace, during the last decade it has grown gross sales from 5 billion to more than 7 billion.
    • The fears about Barbie losing momentum and relevance are overblown.
    • The fears about Fisher-Price losing momentum and relevance are more warranted.
  • Altria Does It Again: Q4 Results Show Management's Capital Allocation Skill
    MO Fri, Jan. 30, 10:02 AM Sure Dividend 40 Comments

    Summary

    • Altria is one of the best-managed and shareholder friendly large cap companies.
    • The company targets a payout ratio of 80% yet still manages solid EPS growth.
    • See the capital allocation brilliance that has reduced Altria's share count and its future cash flow obligations.
  • Update: Hershey - Quality At A Premium
    HSY Fri, Jan. 30, 9:31 AM Eli Inkrot 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Hershey recently announced fourth quarter earnings results.
    • The company showed improvement in all of the major categories, while continuing to demonstrate its commitment to shareholders.
    • However, with shares trading around 27 times trailing earnings, investors might see investment returns that lag business performance.
  • Monthly Auto Sales Preview: January 2015
    GM, F Fri, Jan. 30, 9:25 AM Selerity Research Comment!

    Summary

    • While this is one of the slowest months of the year, expectations are for the highest reported January since 2006 despite the weather setback.
    • Results get a boost from January 2015 having 26 selling days compared to 25 in January 2014.
    • Declining gas prices continue to support to strong truck and SUV sales.
  • General Mills Is On The Road To Improving Its Business Model
    GIS Fri, Jan. 30, 9:15 AM Investing Tricks 1 Comment

    Summary

    • General Mills has introduced an extensive cost-cutting program that will involve streamlining unnecessary operations and result in significant cost savings.
    • The shutdown of manufacturing facilities in Ontario and New Albany should generate annual cost savings of more than $400 million in fiscal year 2015.
    • With the rising obesity issues in the United States people are becoming more health conscious and are increasingly shifting towards healthier food.
    • Moreover, employing the multiple based valuation method the stock looks shows that the relatively is undervalued and offers a potential return of nearly 2.68%.
  • Coach Mirrors Starbucks: A Restructuring Déjà Vu
    COH Fri, Jan. 30, 8:36 AM Richard Lewis 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Coach's challenges and opportunities mirror those of Starbucks circa 2008.
    • Uncertainty around Coach is driving an exceptional long-term investment opportunity.
    • Behavioral biases from analysts and investors are adding pressure on Coach's stock price.
  • Misunderstood And Undervalued: Enterprise Inns
    ETINY Fri, Jan. 30, 8:23 AM Value Vista UK Comment!

    Summary

    • Enterprise Inns trades at a cheap valuation given the highly leveraged nature of the balance sheet.
    • Based on an analysis of comparable companies, the market does not appear to be valuing Enterprise's pub estate accurately.
    • With income at the underlying pubs growing, Enterprise Inns provides a great way to play the UK recovery with downside protected by the value of the underlying pub real estate.
  • VF Corp Will Benefit From Cotton Prices And A Strong Dollar
    VFC Fri, Jan. 30, 7:59 AM Josh Arnold 3 Comments

    Summary

    • VFC has been an unbelievable success story in the past few years.
    • The company's international sourcing will benefit from the stronger dollar, boosting margins.
    • I think VFC will see upside to its $3.50 EPS estimate for this year and the stock should trade up to $80.
  • Update: Hershey's Misses Estimates And Acquires Gourmet Jerky Company
    HSY Fri, Jan. 30, 7:01 AM Willow Street Investments Comment!

    Summary

    • The company missed both earnings and revenue estimates as higher prices and more-than-anticipated adverse currency effects hindered results.
    • The company slashed its 2015 earnings and revenue estimates citing more-than-expected adverse currency effects and increased competition.
    • It indicated that in-store purchasing of salty, bakery and meat items were decreasing demand for chocolates.
    • It acquired the Krave meat jerky brand, which sells into a market experiencing double-digit growth.
    • We did not anticipate the company’s missing earnings estimates but recognized the company was combating increasing cost issues.
  • Lorillard: Waiting To Collect Full Merger Value
    LO Fri, Jan. 30, 6:25 AM Stone Fox Capital 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Lorillard and Reynolds American shareholders approved the merger.
    • Without buyback support, Lorillard is now mostly an arbitrage play until the merger closes.
    • FTC risk appears minimal, allowing investors to collect the arb. spread over the next few months when the deal closes.
  • 5 Problems With Nu Skin
    NUS Fri, Jan. 30, 5:06 AM Doyle Publishing Ltd. 20 Comments

    Summary

    • A great conversation starter is asking people if they've known anyone who has participated in a MLM organization. Get the popcorn ready!
    • Pyramid scheme or not, we just don't like its business model.
    • Big liability risks, legal risks, unfavourable media attention, and an increasingly ineffective business model are all reasons to avoid Nu Skin.
    • We don't believe these risks are temporary, and we believe investors should give Nu Skin a wide berth.
  • Update: Leggett & Platt - Set To Make Record Profits
    LEG Fri, Jan. 30, 4:24 AM Winning Strategies 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Leggett & Platt announced very strong financial results.
    • The company is looking to generate record growth in 2015.
    • It is a good stock to hold for safe returns.
  • Ford: Review Of Q4 Earnings And What Lies In Store
    F Fri, Jan. 30, 4:01 AM Maria Zahid 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Automobile industry giant Ford recently reported its earnings for the final quarter of fiscal year 2014.
    • For the final quarter of fiscal year 2014, Ford reported revenues of $35.9 billion, down slightly by 3% from $37 billion in the year ago quarter.
    • Europe proved to be an area of particular concern for the automobile giant as the region reported losses of $443 million during the final quarter of 2014.
    • The North American region, the US in particular, will continue to boost the company’s top lines as well as bottom lines.
    • The company has a low return to capital and a higher weighted average cost of capital which stands upwards of 5% indicating a higher opportunity cost of investment.
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of International Paper Company
    IP Fri, Jan. 30, 3:59 AM Benjamin Clark 1 Comment

    Summary

    • IP is suitable for Enterprising Investors, but not Defensive Investors following the ModernGraham approach.
    • According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is undervalued at the present time.
    • The market is implying 8.36% in annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years, which is significantly less than the growth the company has seen in recent years.
  • Update: Leading Brands Continues To Slip Behind
    LBIX Fri, Jan. 30, 2:21 AM The Specialist Comment!

    Summary

    • LBIX’s fiscal third-quarter results were another disappointment.
    • I’ve been anticipating better and failing to get it.
    • The results made me lose confidence even further in LBIX stock.
  • Currency Headwinds Drive Down Kimberly-Clark's Q4 Earnings And 2015 Outlook
    KMB Fri, Jan. 30, 1:27 AM Stock Gazer Comment!

    Summary

    • Kimberly-Clark generated $4.83 billion in quarterly revenues, which demonstrated a 1.4% decline compared to the year ago quarter. Analysts had anticipated revenues at $4.91 billion.
    • It posted a net loss of $83 million during the quarter, which was a severe drop from the $539 million profit that it had posted in the year ago quarter.
    • Kimberly-Clark announced its adjusted EPS at $1.35, which was an approximate 4% increase compares to the corresponding period a year ago.
    • The company has released its guidance for 2015, expecting EPS to range between $5.60-$5.80, up by 2%-5% year on year.
    • Kimberly-Clark expects sales to decrease by 3%-6% during the year. Currency headwinds are expected to lead to an 8%-9% impact.
  • Update: Tupperware Seals In Strong Q4 Earnings; Strong U.S. Dollar Looms Large
    TUP Thu, Jan. 29, 11:38 PM Anthony Ruben 2 Comments

    Summary

    • TUP earned $1.72 in the fourth quarter, 12% ahead of consensus estimates; FX cost was $0.23/share.
    • Operational improvements were in line with my expectations, but I underestimated the impact of the strong US dollar.
    • Concerns about earnings volatility and the halt, after five years, in dividend increases have dampened my enthusiasm for TUP.
  • Procter & Gamble: Getting Stronger In The Long Term
    PG Thu, Jan. 29, 8:15 PM Investing Doc 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Procter & Gamble's second quarter earnings took a hit, mostly due to one-time charges related to business divestitures and significant impacts from foreign exchange effects.
    • A look at core revenues, earnings, and market share s is reassuring, and suggests strongly that returning to an innovative spirit is starting to pay off for the company.
    • Nevertheless, doing business on a global scale while denominating profits in a strengthening dollar carries a risk, which must be accounted for in a fair value estimate.
    • I lower my fair value estimate slightly, but view the stock as a long-term hold given improving prospects for its competitive positioning, and would add on weakness.
  • Unilever's Slower Dividend Growth Could Mean It's Time To Sell
    UL Thu, Jan. 29, 5:40 PM John Kingham 13 Comments
  • Wessanen: Health Food Business Appearing More Delicious
    KJWNF Thu, Jan. 29, 4:41 PM Timberwolf Equity Research Comment!

    Summary

    • Former underachiever has shed most of its non-core assets to focus solely on health foods.
    • Only American Beverage Company remains as a business outside this core focus: to be sold in 2015?
    • Health foods business estimated to grow mid-single digits going forward.
    • Margin recovery and health food presence make the company an attractive business but the price is dear.
    • At some point I expect the company to be acquired: its European health foods presence is very attractive to strategic buyer.
  • Arctic Cat: Is Q3 A Line In The Snow?
    ACAT Thu, Jan. 29, 4:28 PM Value Vista UK Comment!

    Summary

    • Artic reported Q3 earnings on Wednesday lowering once again.
    • The new CEO has promised to get more aggressive with ATV dealer inventory, this looks promising but led to a $7m charge in the quarter.
    • Management appears to have drawn a line in the sand this quarter as next year's estimates look low, investors should still be cautious as risks remain.
  • Hershey's Disappointing Q4 Earnings Has Sent Its Shares Over 6% Lower
    HSY Thu, Jan. 29, 11:40 AM Joey Solitro Comment!

    Summary

    • Q4 2014 earnings were released on January 29.
    • Earnings per share and revenue fell short of expectations.
    • Global volume decreased 2.3%.
    • Lowered its outlook on fiscal 2015, now projecting earnings per share growth of 8%-10%.
    • The company's stock has responded by falling over 6%.
  • Harley-Davidson's Shares Rise Following Its Q4 Earnings Release - Should You Be A Long-Term Buyer?
    HOG Thu, Jan. 29, 11:17 AM Joey Solitro 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Q4 2014 earnings were released on the morning of January 29.
    • Earnings per share beat expectations, but revenue fell short.
    • Dealers worldwide sold 47,149 new Harley-Davidson motorcycles during the quarter.
    • Returned $280.56 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.
    • The company's stock has responded by rising over 1%.
  • Colgate-Palmolive's Shares Rise Following Its Q4 Earnings Release - Should You Consider It Now?
    CL Thu, Jan. 29, 11:04 AM Joey Solitro Comment!

    Summary

    • Q4 2014 earnings were released on January 29.
    • Earnings per share beat expectations, but revenue fell just short.
    • Global unit volume increased 2.5%.
    • Organic sales increased 6%.
    • The stock has responded by rising over 2%.
  • Graphic Packaging Holding Company Is Wrapped Up And Ready For Price Appreciation
    GPK Thu, Jan. 29, 10:21 AM Sergio Heiber Comment!

    Summary

    • GPK sells at cheap multiples relative to its growth rate.
    • The industry is consolidating and GPK is a solid takeover candidate.
    • GPK has upside potential as an MLP.
  • Coach's Shares Soar Following Its Mixed Q2 Earnings Release - Should You Buy Into The Rally?
    COH Thu, Jan. 29, 9:52 AM Joey Solitro 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Q2 2015 earnings were released on January 29.
    • Earnings per share beat expectations, but revenue fell short.
    • North American comparable-store sales declined 22%.
    • International sales decreased 1% to $421 million.
    • The company's stock has responded by rising over 5%.
  • Kimberly-Clark Remains Attractive For Long-Term Investors
    KMB Thu, Jan. 29, 8:09 AM Equity Watch 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Efforts to support sales base with ongoing innovations and to extend reach in emerging markets will grow market share in the long term.
    • Strong cash flows will support healthy cash returns.
    • Stock offers potential price appreciation of 7%.