Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday November 12.
Will There Be a Bull in the China Shop in 2013? Stocks discussed: Caterpillar (CAT), Alcoa (AA), Eaton (ETN), Yum Foods (YUM), Coach (COH), Starbucks (SBUX), iShares FTSE China 25 Index ETF (FXI), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Wynn Resorts (WYNN)
Cramer thinks the bearishness on China might be overdone. There has been an increasing number of positive data from China and from companies that do extensive business in the Middle Kingdom. Industrial stocks are trading at valuations that indicate that China's economy will be depressed, even though Caterpillar (CAT), Eaton (ETN) and Alcoa (AA) managements all indicated that business in China will look stronger in 2013. Yum (YUM), Starbucks (SBUX) and Coach (COH) all reported strong sales in China, even though Coach was weak overall. Chinese exports climbed 5 points, the Chinese central bank has been injecting cash into the economy, industrial production rose 9% and retail sales were up 14%. China is lowering interest rates and yet is not seeing a dramatic rise in inflation. While the Chinese economy might not be fabulous, a soft landing for the Chinese economy is more likely than the more dismal scenario. Cramer would buy the iShares FTSE China 25 Index ETF (FXI).
Cramer took some calls:
Lithia Motors (LAD) is up 50% and probably won't move higher.
"This fiscal cliff business is driving me crazy," exclaimed Cramer. If it weren't for fiscal cliff worries, Cramer thinks more stocks would be rallying. Individual stocks are seeing gains on good news, but gone is the usual pin action that allowed winners to share their success with the rest of the sector through full sector rallies. Celgene (CELG) announced amazing results for its Hepatitis C treatment, with close to a 100% success rate. The stock rose to a 20 year high and saw a 13.7% gain. Gilead's shares saw a 5.82% gain on positive data about its pancreatic cancer drug. However, these gains did not spread to other biotech stocks.
Sherwin Williams (SHW) is acquiring a Mexican paint producer, and its shares rose 5.84% on the news. Precision Castparts (PCP) is buying Titanium Metals (TIE); the stocks moved $8 and 4.6% respectively. Jefferies (JEF) saw a huge move on an announced merger. While individual stocks are performing well, investors are so nervous about taking risks that there may be little benefit for stocks in general from these individual success stories.
While the pre-holiday season is usually great for retail, with so much uncertainty about the economy, it pays to be especially careful this year before buying retail stocks. Wal-Mart (WMT) has been going up in a straight line, but the problems at J.C. Penney (JCP) just keep getting worse. Ascena (ASNA), formerly known as Dress Barn, is an ideal retailer to buy, because it has several different niches and 5 diverse brands. In addition to Dress Barn, the company owns Justice, for tween girls, Maurice, casualwear for women in their 20s and 30s, and has recently acquired Charming Shoppes, which specializes in plus sizes. Ascena tends to be too conservative about how well its acquisitions will be integrated, and this tendency to underpromise and overdeliver may make the stock rise on beaten expectations. Ascena concentrates on creating a unique in-store experience for shoppers, with the right music, videos, pleasant places to sit and attentive customer service. The stock trades at a multiple of just 11 compared to a 15% growth rate. Trading at 3 points off its high, Cramer would take advantage of the pullback to buy it, since it doesn't decline often.
CEO Interview: David Demers, Westport Innovations (WPRT)
"Just because something is a good idea," said Cramer, "that doesn't mean its time has come." Westport Innovations (WPRT) creates technology that enables vehicles to run on natural gas, but given the fact that President Obama was re-elected, and he hasn't spoken directly in favor of adopting natural gas as a bridge fuel, it might be a while before natural gas infrastructure is built out to create an upside for WPRT. However, CEO David Demers was more positive, and explained that the company doesn't need government backing, which could actually undermine WPRT growth prospects with increased interference. WPRT reported a disappointing number, and the stock was hit harder by a Sell recommendation from Goldman Sachs. Demers explained that 2013 will be a better year for WPRT, given a new engine the company is working on. The CEO discussed plans for production of natural gas and infrastructure buildout projects from other companies; "We are moving into a new era. Have no doubt, it will happen." WPRT has doubled since Cramer got behind it in 2010, but has pulled back 28% since August. Cramer is willing to consider that the new natural gas engine may produce upside for WPRT in 2013.
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