EUR/USD: Technicals And Fundamentals Backing Sellers

Includes: ERO, EU, FXE, UDN, UUP
by: FXstreet

The state of affairs for the European shared currency continues to augur additional selling pressure ahead of Europe's opening, a pattern already seen in the last Asian trading hours, when EUR/USD sellers managed to assault fresh new levels below 1.2685, with flows sending the spot rate to a new 9-week low at 1.2660.

The last round of euro selling interest out of Asia comes as the Eurogroup decided to hold out any decision over Greece's next aid tranche of €31.5 billion until next Tuesday November 20, when they will meet again.

According to UBS FX Strategists Gareth Berry, "any breakthrough is still some way off with next decision on Greece not scheduled until November 20", adding that "the null outcome will now increase the market attention on Tuesday's issue of Greek T-bills."

Busy day ahead for the London session

A bunch of data releases will keep traders glued to the wires today (Tuesday). The show starts with French jobs data and current account at 07:45 GMT, followed 15 minutes later by Spanish CPI, Italian CPI at 09:00 GMT, and the highly followed German ZEW at 10:00 GMT, while the ECOFIN meeting, held in Brussels, will take place all day long.

Bank of Portugal will also release its Autumn economic bulletin, with CPI figures for Portugal at 10:00 GMT. At 14:30 GMT Greek FinMin Yannis Stournaras will speak to EU lawmakers, while EU managing director of the Institute of International Finance Charles Dallara will hold talks with senior government officials and private sector leaders regarding Greece and the euro area.

On the sovereign debt auctions front, Italy will deliver 12 month bills, with 10 year bond yields standing barely above 5.03%; steady around the 5% figure for the last 2 months, while Greece will try to sell 13-week T-Bills, as mentioned above.

EUR/USD, technicals and fundamentals point south

On the euro technical readings, "technical readings go with fundamentals in the short term" says Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at

"For the short term, the bearish stance remains in place, as recovery attempts remained capped below 1.2740/50 area, a 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run and immediate resistance level. The break below 1.2690 (past Friday's low) materialized in Asia and will expose the next Fibonacci support, some 50% of the same rally around 1.2610" Valeria notes.

The medium-term outlook for the euro remains lower, agrees the Wells Fargo FX Team. "A run of encouraging debt crisis developments may be nearing an end, while ongoing economic softness and easy European Central Bank monetary policy should continue to weigh on the euro," they explain. "FX positioning and technicals both offer scope for euro declines, and we see a weaker euro outlook over both the near- and medium-term".

Next immediate support for EUR/USD lies at August 31 highs of 1.2640, followed by the May 24/28 highs area- a 50% Fibonacci retrace of the latest daily leg up, 1.2035/1.3175 at 1.2605/10 (as Valeria notes), and August 23 highs at 1.2585. To the upside, the closest resistance shows at Friday's/Monday's lows 1.2690/1.2700, followed by Thursday's lows at 1.2717, and Monday's highs at 1.2740.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.