Analysts Find It Hard to Be Bullish on Sirius XM 115 comments
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Janco and Merrill Lynch both came out with reports on Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) Tuesday. From Janco’s perspective, analyst April Horace is downgrading the equity to market perform with her price target under review. Merrill’s Jessica Reif Cohen is maintaining her $1.00 price target with an underperform rating.
JANCO
Horace noted in her report that she was surprised by Sirius XM’s move to do the $30,000,000 in debt financing prior to the announcement of the third quarter numbers. She noted, “…we were of the understanding that SIRI was going to wait to disclose third quarter results as well as possibly fourth quarter subscriber additions before they actually went to the debt markets. We thought if the results showed progress, it may be a more opportunistic time to raise the debt. We have to admit that SIRI’s recent moves have surprised us, especially before the third quarter earnings release, and not necessarily consistent with previous statements.”
Horace also noted that the possibility of dilution and a reverse stock split Also “Sends Alarms” to shareholders but also believes, “a reverse split makes sense”, however she also concedes that historically, reverse splits have caused overall declines in value.
In closing the report Horace stated, “We believe in the long-term satellite radio sector. We are unfortunately downgrading SIRI to a Market Perform due to the significant uncertainties in the market place and concerns about management’s inconsistent actions. At present we are still reviewing subscriber forecasts, potential dilution, and cost of debt and, therefore, are suspending any price targets.”
Merrill
Jessica Reif Cohen issued a new note Tuesday dealing with the recent move by Sirius XM in issuing shares. Cohen noted, “every little bit helps” and that the action was “consistent with what we wrote last week (Refer to: “Reverse Split and Dilution on the Table”).
Cohen feels that the debt markets are forcing SIRI’s hand, and that a combination of several factors have “hindered SIRI’s prospects to successfully refinance its 2009 maturities at a reasonable rate without having negative impacts on the long-term FCF profile of the credit.”
Cohen also points out that SIRI’s sales channels are under pressure and therefore she reiterated the equity as Underperform, outlining the following reasons:
1) 2009 debt refinancing risk; and
2) risk of dilution to the equity.
Merrill will also be reassessing their current PO of $1.00 considering SIRI sales channels have come under increased pressure with:
1) MLe forecast for U.S. auto sales lowered to 12.5mn SAR from 14mn SAR (SIRI guidance on 09/09/08 was based on14mn SAR); and
2) deteriorating outlook for U.S. discretionary retail spending.
It would appear that analysts are finding it more difficult to be bullish in the short term on Sirius XM Radio. Should the company post decent third quarter and fourth quarter numbers, the potential will look better, but the debt still needs to be addressed. In current market conditions, it is hard to be positive on the prospects of getting a good debt refinancing deal. However, should the company accomplish such refinancing, a large cloud would be lifted.
Position - Long SIRI
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This article has 115 comments:
In response to the - Next Big Idea-Saving SIRI topic;
This is a great idea and one that I too have been pondering. The only reason that this company is trading for such a low share price is because of the looming 2009 debt. Why not give the current shareholders a chance to re-invest in the company in order to save our current investment.
I have about 30K shares and would be willing to invest more money, in order to pay down the current debt.
The main concern is the debt due in 2009, which is about 1billion. There are over 3billion shares outstanding.
Here is my suggestion;
Allow current shareholders to purchase a "re-investment certificate" for .33 for every share owned (this way you control how much you want to invest). The total investment would be collected and used solely to repay the 2009 debt obligation.
In return re-investors, would receive .66 for every certificate purchased on Jan. 1, 2016 (approximately a 10% return). SIRI could repurchase the certificates at any time prior to 2016 at a pro-rated price.
In order for this to work, shareholders would have to come together and honesty disclose how many share they have, and how much they would be willing to invest. If enough shareholders respond, we may be able to take the idea to SIRI and get more attention, which would further increase the exposure. Obviously they would have to agree to the idea and a lawyer would need to be involved in order to ensure it was legally binding and a clearing house to facilitate the collection of funds.
I have set up an account, savesiri@gmail.com.
Anyone who is interested please email me the number of shares held, and the number of re-investment certificates you could potentially purchase. If we get enough interest, we could go to the company with the proposal. If this idea goes nowhere, I will delete all the email accounts and forget it. If it gets enough attention, I will email your for further contact information.
As an aside, if I lose my entire SIRI investment I will not starve or lose any sleep, I just think we have a chance to make a difference and come together as shareholders. I am so sick of seeing shareholders get left with nothing, because the don't come together until after the bankruptcy filing. Thanks, CTO essage boards.
BTW: I'm now at about 15k shares, and I'd consider lending money to protect my investment.
I'd also rather see the shares diluted then lose all my money. If it takes 5 or 10 years to get back my investment, so be it.
I feel the recent 67 million shares says bad things about the next report. If they had good things to say, wouldn't they have waited a month until the results, and a possible share price boost?
I wouldn't mind SIRI diluting shares to pay off debt...But I would be a little concerned about a RS....
Although not much because if the debt is relieved then SIRI will be free to run RS or not!!
My opinion and probably others on here too...
AVOID SIRIUS STOCK!!!
Mel is a crook! He is putting the entire debt on the back of the long term stock holder. He planned it.
I want Mel nailed to a cross and justice!
LOL watch as is trades short after the split and then Mel will buy up on the cheap and go private. Crook!!!
For the love of god, Mel did this once before exactly the same. He will not bank finance this if we let him do the split. Mel is a G D crook.
I am very long and ver foolish for not investigating Mel befor this time. I don't know what it is going to take to convence you optomistic fools.
I will be posting for no other reason but to save others from this crook. This stock is going to sink like a rock. Mel is going to split the value out over and over again until the debt is paid. Long term investors are going to lose money every time in Sirius.
Lots of great ways to finance this debt even without a bank. Mel had a plan and he is a crook. I will be seeing him in court!
Vote Hell No to the REV-Split!
Vote No to the new shares!
Vote Mel out!
I like your idea and 9 others I have seen for speacial stock holder bond issue.
However, what ever good idea we provide all go ignored by Sirius. Try contacting IR and see for your self. No one is home and no one at Sirius wants other ideas. They planned to screw stock holders and they going to stick to it.
SIRI Paul Blaylock His direct number 212 584-5174
or you can call 212-584-5100 and ask for IR.
Vote Hell No to the REV-Split!
Vote No to the new shares!
Vote Mel out!
I made a few postings suggesting to allow stockholders and subscribers to lend money to the company. As small investors we do not have ulterior motives but to protect our investments in SiriusXM. I hope you have direct contact with management to recommend our views. Thanks
I thank all of you for your show of support.
This has been a multi-year well orchestrated effort to steal this company away from its shareholders; Sirius Management's goal has not been to enhance shareholder value, it has been to consolidate all of the SDARS spectrum at any cost as the combined entity now controls more spectrum than all of the FM/AM stations combined in the United States. More so, not just in major populated areas but in every nook and cranny in the nation.
This will become a business model that will be worth multiple billions of dollars. The problem is, unless we do something, we will not be the ones that benefit from this. To date, I have spent roughly 3000 hours researching the company's failure to comply with their interoperable mandate and all of the misinformation and lack of transparency on this issue.
Above, I have included the 2nd Amended Complaint filed by Jeffrey P Fink initially on behalf of we - the shareholders - ie: "The Class". With some luck, a lot of work, and approximately $45k spent, I was able to defeat this suit which protected shareholders' rights. This suit was a sham and set up from the start. The suit was brought forward at arm's length by the executives of Sirius to reach a settlement which would provide them complete indemnification/insura... for all of their past corrupt acts. In class action cases, the norm is for the plaintiff's counsel to demand a letter be sent to each shareholder informing them that their rights are at risk and give the shareholders an opportunity to "opt out". In this case, Sirius refused as they argued before the Court, they could not spend the $1million it would cost them to send this letter to their individual shareholders. Instead, they argued that a one-day ad in the back of the Wallstreet Journal would be sufficient notice. I argued that this in no way could be considered due process or proper notification of the Class in which the Judge finally agreed and was going to force Sirius to send notice via the US Mail. Sirius refused as they were concerned about committing mail fraud under RICO statutes which could have led to five years in prison and a $10K fine for each and every piece of mail sent. Three days after this hearing where they argued they could not afford to spend $1M to properly notify their shareholders, they paid Mr. Karmazin $32M for the year - $1M more than the prior year. That was the end of the line for me.
Attached is another letter memorializing a call from Mr. Fink (lead counsel in the case) in which I was offered $500k to allow the sham suit to go on but at the cost of all other shareholders and class members. I refused. The plaintiff used in this case representing billions of dollars in our interest as shareholders is a professional plaintiff by the name of Mr. Greg Brockwell. He lives in a very upscale neighborhood in Duxbury MA and his home has a current value of $1.3M. He also drives expensive cars and owns other properties as well. One must wonder why someone who proclaims to own 1000 shares of Sirius would contact a law firm in San Diego CA and bring forth such a case.
Mr. Brockwell is a member of a litigation kennel. A group of professional plaintiff's that own minuscule, if any, shares in thousands of companies so that when opportunity arises the plaintiff is picked from the litigation kennel, has absolutely no involvement in the case, and is secretly paid for his participation in said case which is a felony.
Once I uncovered all of this information, Mr. Fink, Mr. Brockwell and the Robbins Umeda firm ran for the hills, but before doing so, they converted the class action, that was supposed to protect our interest, to an individual action on behalf of Mr. Brockwell and Terri Johnson only. At the time, I did not understand why they were doing this, but it has since been abundantly clear; as Mr. Fink and his law firm has now hired a high profile prominent defense firm that specializes in high risk, high exposure situations. The defense they are attempting is that when they converted the class action to an individual action, we as a class retained all of our rights, so "No Harm, No Foul" despite the fact that I spent nearly 12 months and $45K defeating this case to retain our rights. Where they are mistaken is that this suit, when it received preliminary class status, prevented us from filing a similar suit as it would have been moot and consolidated with their complaint. Therefore, we lost our right to a fully informed vote as well as the right to stop this merger via an injunction which was the main reason the Brockwell complaint was filed.
If you read the Second Amended Complaint, you will see the egregious accusations made against Mr. Karmazin and all other management of Sirius. Mr. Fink states clearly that if this merger is not stopped, at any and all costs, members of the Class will continue to be harmed. Mr. Fink's fancy footwork by converting the class action to an individual suit was an attempt to protect themselves as they are saying, we as shareholders/members of the class, did not lose anything as we are free to bring an action of our own. Where Mr. Fink is mistaken and incorrect is that his obligation was not to Mr. Brockwell, it was to WE the Class. Mr. Fink owed us a fiduciary duty to protect our interest.
Mr. Fink, in the eleventh hour, threw members of the Class under the bus to reach a settlement that was of no benefit to members of the Class and was going to line his firm, as well as other counsel's pockets, to the tune of millions of dollars. I believe we not only have recourse against Sirius and its executives but we also have recourse against Mr. Fink and his firm for denying our right to a fully informed vote. lulling us into a sense of complacency , denying us our right to stop this merger via an injunction from the court. He and his firm could be liable for hundreds of millions of dollars in damages to we, the shareholders.
I suggest we bring an action against Mr. Fink, his firm and Mr. Brockwell, as they have already shown they know the tremendous exposure they are now facing as they have hired high profile high dollar counsel to protect their firm; evidence that they understand the risk they face. We all need to bite the bullet and contribute monies to a legal fund as well as make our voices heard via a PR firm and potential civil disobedience at the shareholder meeting and potentially outside Mr. Karmazin's place of residence: Trump Tower.
Please, all of you that can attend the December 18th shareholder meeting at Sirius Headquarters MUST. Anyone that has friends or relatives that are shareholders need to be contacted. We must have a large turnout in order for the press to take an interest. I will see to it the press, The Wallstreet Journal, and others will be there but I must know that we are going to have a substantial turn out.
I'm coming from Southern California, have booked my flight, $199 to $249, so prices are reasonable if booked early. If any of you can help by contacting institutional owners, that would be a large help. Also, I don't believe it would hurt if you understand the details and seriousness of Mr. Fink's (ie: Brockwell's) breach of fiduciary duties owed us, that you start contacting the firm, asking to speak to Mr. Fink, and express your outrage as to how he sold out the Class members and that we will be bringing forth an orchestrated and combined action against him. I will also give you numbers of members of the press so that it is not just one voice yelling in the wind, but it will be multiple voices, which will give us more credibility.
It has been merely 2 days and we've received 16 e-mails, several phone calls, and we are just beginning. Next week, I will have information on how to run (and the cost of running) a PR news wire on Yahoo placed next to the Sirius ticker which will advise shareholders we are commencing an action and seeking plaintiffs (ie: participants).
Any other suggestions as to publications, ads run, or any other ideas are most welcome. Please feel free to call me anytime with questions or give me a number in which I can reach you. I know there are a lot of attachments and a lot to digest, but please spend the time to read them as it will help you to understand the depth of the corruption and the length of the battle I've been involved in.
For full disclosure, I am a Sirius Satellite Radio shareholder and hold well over 200K shares purchased at an average price of $4.50. But I can assure everyone, I am more than just a scorned shareholder. This entire situation and the position the shareholders have been placed in is a travesty. What took place in that Manhattan Court Room was criminal and jeopardizes the entire Judicial process (ie: Professional Plaintiffs).
GO TO SIRIUSBUZZ.COM "FORUMS"..... KEEP THE POST AND THREAD ALIVE AND ON TOP BECAUSE MANAGEMENT AND OTHERS FOLLOW THESE SITES CLOSELY. ALSO, THOSE OF YOU THAT POST ON YAHOO, PLEASE SOLICIT OTHER SHAREHOLDERS TO CONTACT ME AT SAVESIRIUS@GMAIL.COM TO PROTECT THEIR RIGHTS AND INTERESTS.
Again, thank you for your help.
Michael Hartleib
I am IN ........in fact , I would go 2,000 bucks
R-Split , and issuance of 3.5 billion more shares will dilute and drain current equity severely ...........If there is an R-Split , it is almost certain to go down more ( as stated in the article )
BUT BK is total suicide , and the end of all hope for current equity holders
Mel is stupid not to ask shareholders for more financing , instead of going to the Wall Street Wolves ..........He should come to us , honestly , and openly , and say , " Folks , we are in some trouble , but with a little help from you we can pull out of this mess "
Too bad we are the only one's discussing it.
IMO
So , JUST paying off debt may not be enough .......It would help , but will it be enough to run the company too
I think Mel has his sights higher than just paying off debt ....I think he knows he also needs a billion or so for operations since Siri STILL doesn't make money ........It burns OUR money
So my question is ---- Is paying off the debt enough to do the job ????
His Or the company...
He only cares about Mel's head on his wall as a trophy that cost him $300,000 of his own money... He contributes no ideas that would help this company and us...
It's starting to make me mad that all he posts is...
"MEL SCREWED US.... VOTE HELL NO TO RS AND DILUTION AND PAYING OFF DEBT.... GO DIRECTLY TO BK AND TEACH MEL A LESSON HE WILL NEVER FORGET!!"
Only thing is that even if we do that Mel still wins...If in fact he is just screwing us... Which i still see no proof of him doing... So far besides the financing issue Mel is doing what he needs to make this company work....
People say that since Mel took over this company has been going downhill all the way.... Well with the competition of XM and SIRI BLEEDING CASH ALL OVER THE PLACE AND DEBT OUT OF THIS WORLD WHAT THE F ELSE IS GOING TO HAPPEN.... We would be in this same position with anyone else running the company....
Now with XM on board with SIRI... Sure the SP looks bad now but the main thing weighing in on us is the EXTRA DEBT that we took on....
SIRI is so close to turn positive cash flow FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER!!! And you guys want to force it into BK....
You guys are dumb, paranoid morons that just keep repeating the same BS over and over again....
Distributing those extra shares to get Debt off the books is fine.... You guys say you would give the $1000 dollars to get rid of it... Essentially thats what you would be doing if the shares are distributed....DUH!!
Then with less debt and positive cashflow... The company won't have anything to pay back to banks.... Tons of cash ON HAND and a product that is great and people want....
So I think i proved my point why I can't stand MARK constantly saying "VOTE HELL NO TO MONEY AND THIS COMPANIES FUTURE, I HATE MEL AND WANT HIS HEAD"!!!!
----- And its not just Mark, it's all the other people who are also paranoid and lost a ton of money that they never want back, and heads are so messed up that they can't see the positives that this vote can have for the company....
I don't know about you guys but I know which way my shares are going...
And I think I am going to pick up a killer buy here soon for a ton more to help me make my vote!!
----------------------... LONG SIRI ----------------------...
And reverse splits are not necessarily negative as i see people saying all the time. There is no dilution no change in value, no material effect on the company. The only bad thing is that some investors see it as a bad "sign". Well we already know Siri is in trouble, so that's not a concern, just do the reverse split, issue shares to take care of the debt and move on. But keep your fingers crossed beacuse things aren't looking good!!
Karmazin, Convertibles, Conspiracies... and Goldman???
Okay, first things first -- let me say that I'm not one to normally subscribe to conspiracy theory's. I had been very critical of Michael Hartlieb in the past - and his Sirius/XM interop conspiracy... as well as others surrounding Goldman and whatever else... but something smells not quite right...
There had been talk on this board (I believe) about what Goldman was up to -- why their analyst blasted Sirius/XM, while Goldman held on to so much of Sirius' Feb09 debt. I was skeptical at first, then later started to wonder. I noted it my head to keep an eye on this, then wham -- it hit me this past week. I don't wish to start a new conspiracy -- I only want to express my observations and make everyone think for a moment about this. Karmazin made a comment this week at the ML presentation that started me to wonder. (I attached in a zip file, an audio clip of that comment -- with the transcript here):
Quote:
We currently have a Sirius convert of $300 million, that is due February of 2009. We have already had conversations with banks about securing the cash, okay, in order to take out that convert. You shouldn’t be surprised that the holders of the convert have been very anxious to talk to us about, “gee, we’d like to exchange that for another piece of convert”. That is not the interest that the company has. The company has, is that we will raise the debt – the combined with our approximately $450 million of cash that was on our balance sheet, the last time we report it, which was the end of June. So there was $450 million of cash, we are looking to raise bank debt – probably senior secured, because we have basket in which we can do that. Probably a term that will be a couple – three years – short term; and that will take out that issue. When will we do it? We will do it, this time more opportunistically than we did, last time. When would I like to do it? I’d like to do it, sooner rather than later. Because I’d like to get this question mark out of everybody’s mind, “What are you going to do about that Feburary 2009 convert. The market, based on everything I’m told is assuming we may have to raise equity to deal with that. So let me resolve that as fast as I can – and show that I don’t need to do that. And I think that that would look positive.
So what has me wondering? This line, "You shouldn’t be surprised that the holders of the convert have been very anxious to talk to us about, “gee, we’d like to exchange that for another piece of convert”."
I believe it was Brandon (I'll give proper credit where credit is due) that pointed out how much of these maturing Notes that Goldman has. The question in my mind is, what gives? I think I have a possible reason now...
Goldman has little to lose by Sirius taking out this debt, via them raising a new bank loan to buy back this maturing debt -- but they have a lot to gain by Sirius being forced into offering "the holders" of this maturing debt an exchange for a new convertible note... no???? Think about it... If Sirius was forced to exchange for a new convertible -- with the new note having a higher coupon, than the current 2.5% -- with a much lower convertible price, than the current $4.41/share price... no???
Worst case scenario, is the convertible notes get bought back -- best case scenario, the notes get exchanged for new ones with a higher coupon and a lower convertible price. Which do you think is in the best interest of Goldman??? Goldman currently holds $127.8 million of this $300 million in maturing notes... that is 42.6% of the notes. Think about that! The hold over 40% of the notes -- and Karmazin says that they have been contacted by these note holders who said, "we’d like to exchange that for another piece of convert". It's easy to believe that Goldman is one of those saying this. And with Karmazin and Sirius saying, no -- we just want to buy them back... how do you think that Goldman is going to respond, knowing that they can benefit greatly by a new convert??
I'm not going to delve in to the whole connection between Goldman and Cramer -- and his all of a sudden turn around recommending that investors "buy Sirius debt"... but it does have to make you wonder??
If Goldman can put pressure (via Weinkes' bearish call on Sirius) -- keeping the pps down; could it not also continously (and quietly) bash the company/stock and put pressure on them to take the convertible exchange offer and make it difficult for them to obtain a bank loan -- instead of having their notes bought back? It makes me wonder.
The fact is, Goldman has nothing to lose -- because Sirius has to buy the maturing notes back -- and a lot to gain by keeping the pps down and keeping a bearish outlook on the company to make it difficult for them to refi this maturing debt -- forcing them to take their exchange offer.
The whole thing stinks -- and me (the guy that doesn't buy into conspiracy theories) -- makes me wonder just how much Goldman is manipulating this stock. I think the sooner that Sirius raises the bank debt (preferrably), the sooner the pressure will be taken off of this stock. We're really starting to see just how much an investment company like Goldman can have an impact on a large company like Sirius. And from what I hear -- its not the first time that Goldman has done something like this.
Love to hear thoughts...
Just vote no to the split!
Notice for every bad post here 2 long reading positive mumbo jumbo posts cover up the truth? Who are these Sirius goons?
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
VOTE MEL OUT
Is it the truth or is it what YOU THINK!!!! is right because you lost money on a bad investment??....???
Get real
Dumping is the point. Sirius wins this vote because they will be the only people with stock ownerhip. The owners, me, a few other locked-in longs, and Sirius. Smart people dumped weeks agoe.
Man, I am mud...
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
VOTE MEL OUT
But I think that it will byfar help this company way more in the long run...
You also can't really say why there is selling....
NASDAQ General Index lost 4% today alone.... There is alot of selling going on around the market....
Stop making generalizations
Mind if i ask you what you will be voting on vote day in December....???
Even though I too would not like a reverse split, I think it is needed to get rid of the excess shares that SIRI does not have to money to buy back.....
And untill we get the debt issues taken care of (Either by Refi, or by Dilution) SIRI will not go up... Especially if the SP is being manipulated by the holders of the debt...
That's why issueing shares is the best option in this vote.... I would vote yes for the shares... And I would vote yes for the RS because SIRI would have no debt weghing in on the price like many other companies that do Reverse splits have.... Such as Thornburg like corowitz mentioned....
I wish somone like cos would answer one of my post to either tell me I am wrong or back me up!.!.! LoL
Now, As i have been saying WCOROWITZ, READ THIS
IF THEY ISSUE SHARES, THEN USE THE MONEY THE RAISE TO PAY OFF AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT YEARS DEBT, THEN RS! THEY WILL NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THE DEBT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THEN WITH A GOOD QUARTER THAT MEL AND MANY OF US ARE EXPECTING SOON, NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING NOTHING WILL BE HOLDING THIS STOCK BACK!!!!!!!!!
IMAGINE and SIRI/XM combined company with 20 mil subs, No Debt and a share price of $2-$3.... I would die for that day....
That's why I keep ssaying that this issuance of shares is not a bad idea... It's not the best and it will hurt in the short term...
But I don't get why people like Mark keep saying vote no.... That's why I am starting to Believe he does not like money!
(Oh God) Looking out for us as he is doing this...
1.) He is not lieing because he said "We can Refinance EASILY" The truth is, SIRI can do this... Just at such high interest rates and so on that we would essentially be in the same position we are in now...
And you guys would later blame Mel for Refinancing on such bad terms...
2.) He is Kinda working for us here IN THE LONG RUN...
By diluting the shares more... It's like taking that $1000 loan from each investor like many of you have suggested... and paying off the debt INSTANTLY. THERE IS NO LOAN THAT NEEDS TO BE PAID BACK, NO INTEREST RATES, NO LONG TERM DEBT ISSUES!!!!!
I personally love the sound of that.....
Hence, After the RS SIRI will be around $2-5 I think.... And then it will be screaming BUY so loud that your ears will be bleeding....
Positive Cash Flow
Good subscription Rates
Good QTR results
NO DEBT
WHY WOULD SOMEONE VOTE NO TO THAT?????????????
But think of it this way... at $15-18 (This is the most unlikely scenario, 50-1 is the higest they will go and that would be obsurd) You would be getting price swings by lets say $.50-1.50 a day not $0.02
So those 1000 shares would still be making or losing you $500 to $1500 a day.....
Now at a price of $15/S
No Debt
Good QTR Results
Positive Cash Flow
Positive Subscriber Growth
Whats in that that would Make that $15 share price go down....?
I believe Reif-Cohen pressed him on this and he then said that if neccessary he would loan the company “his own money” and then uttered the now infamous (and perhaps prophetic) line “but I hope it doesn’t come to that.”
If you will recall, there was a great deal of shareholder outrage after this presentation. Several long-time Mel supporters began to question aloud if Mel had “thrown” the presentation.
The Janco downgrade confirms beyond this forum that management’s actions have been inconsistent; they are being kind. Mel talking out of both sides of his mouth is the real headline.
Remember the talking points right after the merger? We heard them over and over and over again (20mm subs, fcf q4 ‘08, fcf fy ‘09, 2nd biggest media subscription bus yada-yada-yada) Mel hit the speaking circuit to deliver the “spin” and gave the same basic speech 5 or 6 times (at Merrill, with David Faber, with Cramer etc. etc.).
The initial talking points were gradually refined. The one refinement that jumped out at me was: the 1st set of talking points included a statement that the “debt offering was extremely successful and in fact was over-subscribed” (that was a big red flag). Within 2 weeks that talking point was gone and replaced with “we had to get the financing done quickly due to NAB shopping for a friendly judge” which then simply morphed into “ugly financing.”
Folks, don’t think for a minute that these talking points change by accident. Mel used exotic financing to buy a bigger house than we all could afford and now the rate resets are coming due in 2009.
Management’s inconsistent actions, failed execution, botched handling of the DC terminations, lack of substantive marketing or promotional campaign and seeming disconnect from retailers leaves me to wonder if this company isn’t speaking with TWO voices.
This management team needs to step forward now and present a precise, unified, detailed plan of how they intend to deal with the 2009 debt, how the shares from a proposed equity offering will be used and under what circumstances a reverse split will be adopted.
Statements such as “we will handle the debt opportunistically” (a later added talking point btw) is not going to cut it.
This company must now speak with one voice and for me that means I will need to hear from Leon Black as well.
The clock is ticking . . . .
He said he "Lost $300,000 " and doesn't want to make that back.... He would rather see the company go bankrupt....??? WTF
c'mon that's just plain dumb
NO? WHO WOULD Vote no REV-SPLIT
If you are long, heavy and avg more than 2.50 than you will not want the split. This would be the long term and loyal investor that was here rooting for Mel durring the Merger. These are the people that are mad and will most likly be in a class action to get some money back from Mels deception.
YES? WHO WOULD VOTE YES?
If you are Mel, or have small investment, or wish a future investment you would vote yes. But you most likly and probably had no play in the merger or layalty that needs rewarding. You can invest after the old longs get whipped out and risk your luck to a crook running a cash cow.
Mel has decived the loyal stock holders. He should be removed.
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
VOTE MEL OUT
If memory serves me right,during the auction of the two available
licenses for this technology, one of the bidders asked, what happens
if their is not enough business for two companies, and one or both fail?
The Govt. represenative replied and i quote. 'WE WILL NOT LET THEM
FAIL." Draw your own conclusions as to where the bailout will come from
if needed.
.
I do not make direct attacks. I have been nice. I have an opinion just like you.
I would like to expose the bad activity of Sirius to prevent others from being hurt.
Please be nice.
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
VOTE MEL OUT
December right now, given the information I have would be No votes on both counts. I say get your Friggin A$$ in there and get us a better deal or have all of Senior Management lined up and ask them one at a time .... What are they willing to do to make this company Succeed?? Why are you looking for current Shareholders to bail your A$$es out of this situation?? Speak up and be clear because your JOBS may depend on it.......Get it!!!
I will repeat myself one more time..... Until I hear from Management of the company.... I am not going to do anything.... I might buy a few more shares at these prices just to look adversity in the face and say F#$%K You!!! Take that.....
Let me ask you this.... Why would Long Term investors who lost so much money since the Merger, and think that a RS will lower the chances of them getting the money back....
Why would they rather vote the company into bankruptcy????
I seriously think he is whats his face constantly saying
"SAVE SIRIUS BUY A SUBSCRIPTION"!
LoL
I agree on your second account...
I too will be sitting on the sidelines with my current shares...But might pick up a few more just before the vote to help my cause LoL!
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
VOTE MEL OUT
A.)Dump my remaining share, suck it up, take the loss like an investor would, and move on...
B.)I would probably vote NO and hope that instead of BK they do any type of REFI.
But that's if the money they raise by the share distribution goes to somthing stupid like picking up more talent or somthing dumb.... Which like I said God help them if they do.
No facts based on it, and I enjoy reading these articles and the news that you guys bring here.
but what he says is just dumb and based on nothing but emotion.....
OK your answer is
No BK going to happen and don't be fooled!
The bond holders want to renew a new term. No BK as the bond holders can do this again. Mel, (for good reason) does not want to do this. But he has not done his work in the other 30 ways to get this debt done.
Mel had a plan to ( like he did in his last compnay) off load the debt on the loyal stock holders. We must stop this from happening again!
Ok? Please be nice.
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
VOTE MEL OUT
ANY reverse split does nothing .....it's a 50x the price , at 50x less shares , but the problem is ......you will be hard pressed to find a stock that goes UP , after a reverse split
.33 PPS now will be .19 after 3.5 billion more shares hit the scene ( some people disagree with that , but that's my opinion )
30-1 compression of .19 is going to be 5.70 PPS so you have a stock now that goes for 5.70 , and is worth half of your starting point of .33 !!!!!
NOW , it gets worse , because the stock has cushion to go DOWN even MORE ( and probably will ) ........say it goes down to 2.85 PPS
NOW you have a stock that is worth 75% less than the original .33
Ultimately you end up with an .11 cent stock ( which will be a "buy" at that time ) ........but will have to gain 200% just to get back to the horrendus .33 cents we started with
I am still holding ( maybe I'm stupid ......correction , I am stupid !!!!! To even be in this situation !!!!! ) ........but it is just really to the point where I have lost so much here , a few more grand isn't going to change my life now .........the bulk is gone , so I guess I keep clinging to hope
Felt good to make 3,000 today on another stock ........man I needed that , just for psychological reasons
So , just 47,000 more to go and i break even !!!!!!!!
Reverse split?
Trump invests and buys down debt?
Company goes bankrupt?
Can we at least get to $1.00?
continued negative cash flow = the need to create more debt all over again
but for sure , ALL I ASK IS DON'T GO BK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
and I have no idea why some posts are advocating that .......totally baffled
I can handle a RS , and more shares ...IF ..... the end result is we get this company going forward instead of backward .......I am down 90% , hell how much worse could it get ??????
so maybe I won't bail just yet .......I am not happy , but need to think more on this
the smart thing would probably be to sell now and buy back later after the smoke clears ........but risky
I guess I should appoligize to you ahead of time. I am sorry I can't spell. Sorry my typing is poor. And wow, I am out of Viagra.
Your oppinion is valuable. Your attack is waisted time. Save it for the "New World Order" LOL. Peace man, Peace...
your answer is
No BK going to happen and don't be fooled!
The bond holders want to renew a new term. No BK as the bond holders can do this again. Mel, (for good reason) does not want to do this. But he has not done his work in the other 30 ways to get this debt done.
Mel had a plan to ( like he did in his last compnay) off load the debt on the loyal stock holders. We must stop this from happening again!
Ok? Please be nice.
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
VOTE MEL OUT
Its not good boys
We don't want it. But, it probably is the last resort for Mel. With bond holders wanting to renew, No BK will happen, period.
We don't want the shorting on the Bonds. Shorting is an insurance policy. But it does not need to drive the PS down. With no looming dooming debt double speak, this company is a cahsh cow. You can not short a stock down with good news.
Mel could and has been offered lots of ideas to get the debt done. So much so that they dont even answer the phone or return emails because they know they are wrong. SIRI Paul Blaylock His direct number 212 584-5174.
Mel wants to and will try to do as planned. He wants to do the same thing he did in his last company. He wants your money.
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
VOTE MEL OUT Reply |Report abuse
What medication you got? Any good stuff? YAh man I could use somthing good with all this bad going in.
Peace... :)
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
There is a possibility there are letting the shorts and GS have their day, for a bit, since they know the day of reckongning is coming, and they will just pay off the converts, that is what I hope is happening, and the stock price will climb after that was shorts clear, etc...
I would expect some degree of advance notice to be given to the shorts so they can exit at an orderly rate. Like the entire time the market has been crashing.
There... That is my most positive theory. Since management is as tight lipped as John McCain in Vietnam prison camp, that is all I am left with.
President and Chief Content Officer, Sirius XM Radio Inc.
Scott Greenstein is President and Chief Content Officer of SIRIUS XM Radio, overseeing all of the satellite radio broadcaster's programming, marketing and corporate marketing activities.
Greenstein has extensive entertainment industry experience, and prior to joining the company he was a consultant to SIRIUS on the strategic agreements that were forged with the National Football League and Penske.
Previously, Greenstein was Chairman of USA Films, a motion picture production, marketing and distribution company. At USA Films, he managed all aspects of its film activities and supervised the company's home entertainment business through USA Home Entertainment which handled home video/DVD distribution for the National Football League, National Hockey League, National Basketball Association and Major League Baseball. Under Greenstein's leadership, USA Films released Steven Soderbergh's Traffic as its first in-house supervised production, which won four Academy Awards and two Golden Globe Awards.
Greenstein also served as Co-President of October Films, where he was instrumental in acquiring, marketing and releasing such critically acclaimed films such as The Apostle, and the Academy Award-winning documentary The Last Days, which was executive produced by Steven Spielberg. Prior to joining October Films, Greenstein was Senior Vice President of Motion Pictures, Music, New Media and Publishing at Miramax Films, where he executive produced Anthony Minghella's The English Patient, which won nine Academy Awards, including Best Picture and Best Director.
Greenstein also served in senior management positions at Viacom International.
He reports to Mel Karmazin, the company's Chief Executive Officer.
James E. Meyer
President, Operations and Sales, Sirius XM Radio Inc.
James E. Meyer is responsible for overseeing and directing all of the operations and sales, including its automotive OEM (original equipment manufacturer) business, retail markets, product management, strategic partners, engineering functions and geographical expansion.
He reports to Mel Karmazin, SIRIUS XM Radio's Chief Executive Officer.
Prior to joining SIRIUS in May 2004, Meyer was President of Aegis Ventures, a general management consulting company, and provided consultant support for SIRIUS.
Before Aegis, he held a number of senior management positions in consumer electronics, including the Senior Executive Vice President of Digital Media Solutions for Thomson, a worldwide leader in consumer electronics. In this job, Meyer had full responsibility for Thomson's Digital Media Solutions Business Unit, a global business serving the entertainment, broadcast and content industries, and which included such clients as Disney, Warner Brothers, Dreamworks, Microsoft, Direct TV, ABC and BBC.
He also was Thomson's Chief Operating Officer for the Americas and Senior Vice President of Product Management, and held other senior management positions at Thomson, General Electric and RCA during his 25 years in consumer electronics.
Meyer serves on the boards of Gemstar-TV Guide, Mikohn Gaming Corporation, Escient Solutions and Equant.
Patrick L. Donnelly
Executive Vice President and General Counsel, Sirius XM Radio Inc.
Patrick Donnelly has been the Executive Vice President and General Counsel for SIRIUS since May 1998, managing all of the Company's legal and governmental affairs.
From August 1999 to April 2001, Donnelly also served as the acting Chief Financial Officer at SIRIUS, a position in which he completed six financings for the company yielding $800 million in gross proceeds.
Donnelly has broad experience in corporate finance activity and management, having worked for 10 years as an in-house counsel and as a practicing attorney.
Prior to joining SIRIUS, Donnelly was Vice President and Deputy General Counsel of ITT Corporation, the diversified hotel, gaming and entertainment company that was acquired by Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc. Donnelly was instrumental in ITT's defense of Hilton Hotel's hostile takeover, including ITT's sale of Madison Square Garden and the company's ultimate sale to Starwood. He also managed day-to-day activities of the legal staff and served as a liaison to the legal departments of ITT's subsidiary enterprises.
Donnelly began his career as an associate at the New York law firm of Simpson Thacher & Bartlett, specializing in merger and acquisitions and securities matters.
Donnelly received a J.D. magna cum laude from Cornell Law School. At Cornell, he served as an editor of the Cornell Law Review and received the Order of the Coif. He also received the American Jurisprudence Award in Debtor and Creditor Law.
Previously, he was awarded his A.B. magna cum laude from Lafayette College in 1984 and won the Wall Street Journal Prize.
David J. Frear
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sirius XM Radio Inc.
David J. Frear joined SIRIUS in June 2003 as the Company's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, bringing considerable knowledge of public company financial operations to SIRIUS as the Company grows its business.
Frear reports directly to the SIRIUS XM Radio CEO, Mel Karmazin.
Prior to joining SIRIUS, Frear was Executive Vice President and CFO for SAVVIS Communications, a global managed network services provider with operations in 44 countries. He was recruited by SAVVIS to develop the SAVVIS business plan, build its staff and take the new global data communications company public in a $400 million offering in February 2000. His responsibilities included accounting, treasury, tax, investor relations, insurance, planning and cost control.
Frear also served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Orion Network Systems in Rockville, Maryland, coming to this international satellite services company following the restructuring of Millicom, where he also served as CFO.
Joining Orion prior to the start of commercial operations, Frear assisted Orion in raising over $850 million to fund the construction of the Company's global satellite system. He also played an important role in Orion's $1.5 billion purchase by Loral Space and Communications.
In addition to serving as Chief Financial Officer for Millicom, Frear also held management positions at Bear, Stearns & Company, Credit Suisse, Transway International and Deloitte & Touche.
He received an MBA from the University of Michigan, Graduate School of Business Administration in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
"outside directors"? e-mail "nonmgmtdirectors@"?
What is an outside director? The tenth grade drop outs highered to answer phones and emails to stoke the masses? LOL...
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
VOTE MEL OUT Reply
VOTE YES to SPITTERS
VOTE YES ON SPLITTING HARES (Kill the wabbit)
VOTE MEL BLANC IN (Voice of elmer) as new CEO!!!
I told them that when you think things can't go any lower ( with Sirius that would be at .35-.39) it does, and everyone runs for the exit signs because they are afraid there will be nothing left.... We are approaching capitulation. I have a buy of 10,000 shares in at .25, it is the last of my ammo.... Like I said if I'm wrong the worst is .... I was wrong...
30 to 1 Rev split
Value ,33 * 30 = $ 9.90 share after split
Most Long are min 2.50 a share now
Investment break even 2.50 * 30 = 75.00 share
Us loyal dedicated long investoers will lose 65.10 per share after the split
Then they will short the 9.90 back down and we lose again.
Mel has 30 ways to get this done. But he is doing his same old trick again and screwing stock holders. No BK possible! The Bond holders would step in to force the new terms 3.9% they want . No court would grant chapter 11 with bond holders willing to do the funding.
Thanks for voting Yes and helping Mel screwing US!
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
you have obviously crossed the point of rational thinking. you are PURE EMOTION at this point. i understand that you have had a massive drawdown of capital, but this is the risk you take in buying stock. i think that its time to man up. NO ONE forced you to forgo any type of stoploss order, which would have gotten you out of this situation a LONG time ago. it was your GREED that convinced you that SIRI would come back and you would be rich. you and no one but YOU hoodwinked yourself.
when are people going to start taking responsibility for their own actions and grow some balls?
such whining babies. this is/has been a spec stock and should have been treated as such. STOP LOSS , people - use it.......
All I have provided are facts and info on class actions that were serpressed. If you call that emotion than you never want to see me upset. LOL...
Most personal attacks on people providing information come from goons and trolls who will continue to surpress information infavor of some cause like working for Sirius. Personal attack are not very productive.
I never attack people. I hope you will express your opinion without attacking me for attempting to protect others by providing information.
Peace...
VOTE NO TO Rev-SPLIT
VOTE NO MORE SHARES
The labor watchdog group says that over 250 production line workers at the Kiryung Electronics factory "have no rights and are held under conditions of constant uncertainty and fear."
They wrote a letter to Howard Stern, who lambasted Kathie Lee Gifford over sweatshop conditions in Honduras, asking the on-air personality to confront Sirius XM management over the treatment of workers at Kiryung.
The National Labor Committee will be attempting to meet with Sirius management (they claim this will be the third attempt) and will hold a press conference at Sirius' NYC headquarters today, at 1pm ET.
Among the claims of abuse, the group says that Kiryung Electronics forces workers to operate 13 to 14-hour shifts, six or seven days a week, and earn just $145 a week. Read more at the link below...
The comment was made at the Convergence 2008 conference in Detroit, and the 15-year timeline is due to the new chipset required and automakers' lead time, according to the industry publication Automotive News.
"At the end of the day, I think that the consumer is in a great position because people are going to listen to what it is that interests them," added Karmazin (pictured above, alongside Ford Motor Company president Mark Field).
But during the 2Q08 conference call with investors, Karmazin's timeline was somewhat shorter.
When asked about when interoperable radios would appear in OEM installations, Karmazin said:
"They [automakers] control the dashboard, so they can decide if they want it or they don't want it, and if they do want it, you should assume it will probably take about three years for them to integrate it, since that's the lead time that most of these options take before the car companies are willing to put it into production."
I think you will find one on Mel's desk. Don't believe me? Go look it up!
Mel said it! It's a matter of public record.
By PATRICIA SCOTT, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS
Mel KarmazinMel Karmazin, CEO of Sirius XM Radio Inc., said Monday that unified satellite radio networks and receivers are still in the distant future.
Karmazin made his first public appearance in Detroit since the merger of the Sirius and XM satellite radio companies was completed in July. He was the kickoff keynote speaker at the Convergence 2008 conference, hosted by Chrysler LLC. The conference focuses on vehicle electronics and customer needs.
In a question-and-answer session, Karmazin said the merger of XM and Sirius hasn’t resulted in a merger of satellite capability. Merging XM and Sirius technology and installing it in new vehicles could take as long as 15 years because of the new chips required and automakers’ lead time.
But the company is offering new efficiencies for its 19 million subscribers that will distinguish one brand from another. During their rivalry in recent years, Sirius and XM signed exclusive contracts with different automakers and brands.
“Building on the success of our audio entertainment and technology infrastructure, we can bring the relationship to a strategic level by partnering with OEMs to position new-vehicle launches with differentiating Sirius XM features, such as Sirius Traffic with Chrysler, XM Traffic and real-time weather with Honda, Sirius Backseat TV with Chrysler and Sirius Travel Link with Ford,” Karmazin said.
Karmazin, the former president of media giant Viacom Inc. and the former CEO of CBS Corp., focused his remarks on meeting customer wants and needs with the range of entertainment programming that Sirius XM offers.
With the value of Sirius XM stock down 75 percent since the merger, Karmazin needs the auto industry to help build new business.
“There’s all kind of content out there. At the end of the day, I think that the consumer is in a great position because people are going to listen to what it is that interests them,” he said.
“We are laserlike-focused on making sure that there is nobody out there that’s going to come close to having the content that we do.”
Karmazin, known for being a champion of shock jock Howard Stern, said satellite radio enables parents to block unwanted programming at a lower price with family-friendly packages.
Karmazin said Sirius XM will not expand into Europe and Asia. If another company wanted to use the Sirius XM model for content and delivery, he said, he hoped the company would be willing to pay cash for Sirius XM’s consulting and advice.
Then if I didnt find an environmental reason, I would begin a private investigation before I enacted charges against the board and CEO. There only hope would be for the contanminant making them all crazy. If you wanted the split, and the issuance, you should have jacked up your numbers, pumped the stock, and then tried it. Tanking the stock, and then asking for more dilution and a RS is lazy and not doing your job. Basically this.... Go run my company...
Owner, im out of capital, I need more money. Here, not go run my company,
Hey, im out of money, I need more....
Ok, here not go run my company....
After a while you need to fire someone.
Dont EVER take the first offer.....
Sirius Management you can do better, because quite honestly, I could do better. I could do better at selling your product than you can. Im a salesman, and Mel your the worst salesman in history. Or your tanking......
Dont know, at this point,I DONT CARE.
I have a suggestion....
If they do dilute the shares to pay off the debt... Buy a ton at the diluted price to average down as much and as fast as you can.... Trust me, at a diluted price from here.... it would take much to get your average to under $1.50.....
It's not the end of the world here.....
If they dilute and get rid of the debt.. Average down
Obviously with no debt, and the very likely positive cash flow possibly by the end of Q4 but def. by '09. The company will be going places in the future after an RS...
JMO Though
Now that I think about it... I would rather pay the debt as a shareholder...
Then average down....
That way after we pay the debt off we are looking profits right in the face....
Rather than refinancing and saying "OK we refinanced, got rid of old debt, now to start paying new debt off, Shorts will you please step back in and bash this price down with constant bombardment of SIRI WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PAY BACK DEBT"
I'm sorry if you bought at such a high price.... But if you believe in this company, a dilution will give you a great chance to get your S/P average down!!!
Internet Radio sucks Di#$ now....
It is losing power.....
Losing funding....
And if you think SIRI has financial problems.... You just wait till Internet radio hits the wall that is already in view....
Hell, At least SIRI says they will avoid BK
Almost all internet radio stations have said that's where they ARE going....
LMAO at Internet Radio...
David Frear-CFO Sirius states
Company should be able to avoid bankruptcy and continue to fund operations.
Very confident that remaining 270M due in Feb will be paid off
Confident banks will extend maturity of May 350M
I guess they plan on keeping us in the dark until Nov5 or 6th
Paul Blalock of IR returned my call on Monday and stated that the conference call maybe 11/6 for 3rd qtr report.
Still long Sirius......but extremely nervious
If it's going to take 15 years to get internet everywhere.... You are still going to have to pay for that subscription.... and for your car and everything, it will be very limited to what the driver can use for it....
Wireless Internet EVERYWHERE will be extremely expensive.... Look at the wireless carriers now.... $100 a month....
You really think that is going to replace $7 a month for the same thing
HA I'm still laughing that you brought Internet Radio back up....!
I wouldn't be nervous....
People are making a mountain out of a mole hill right now because the stock is down so low and they are down so much in their investment.... They are getting paranoid....
I would start to look at what they are saying and analyzing it.....
So far they have given the best advice and are holding right now until further news about the current condition and the December meeting is released...
Other than that basically everyone else is just yelling mularkey on pure emotion....
I guess it was emotional mularkey when a few people were telling us to sell this crap at 2.00
It's great to be positive , but I think it's time to quit ridiculing people that don't seem as optimistic as you ...........so far , THEY have been right 100% .........and it is blind emotionalism to disregard the warnings IMO
I am holding for now , simply because there's not that much left to lose , and I also would like to hold on to hope for a turn around ....even a slight one , and have something that says " Siri will be fine in a couple of years " ( "Siri" , to mean "My investment in Siri" )
The doomers deserve a little more credit ......so far , WE stubborn longs , have been the idiots ............but it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings
Read his latest comments on:
jimrogers-investments..../
You could always hope for a meteor shower that takes out their satellites (kinda like interstellar arson)...
If they are insured and they could get their big $$$$ back...
Oh! They are insured by AIG?
Ooops!