Finally Some Good News for Sirius Shareholders 369 comments
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Now that Sirius XM (SIRI) has laid out its cards on the table, I’d like to offer my view. I’m surprised at all the surprise and negativity from these other analysts. I mean, they have to be kidding, right?
On the reverse split issue, allow me to paint myself into a corner and applaud the company. It’s about time they got proactive in defending the stock price! This should have been done years ago. One of the biggest problems for Sirius XM over the past several years is that it has had far too many shares outstanding. Such a large number of shares combined with a sub 5.00 stock price has made manipulation too easy. The number of outstanding shares alone validates its reversal.
Have you seen the stock price lately? Dilution has been factored into it already. Several analyst reports that I have read this quarter have planned on it. They may have expected it in February, but what’s the difference at this point? So go ahead, trade the 35 cent shares for debt, then do a 50 for 1 reverse split. As a shareholder, I’d rather see the company trying to protect my investment rather than sit back and watch it evaporate further.
On the issue of the debt for shares “surprise,” I am just as excited about this as I am about a reverse split. I thought Wall Street analysts were supposed to be smart! I can easily recall Mel Karmazin’s recent statements, that Sirius XM would be very close to being in a position in February to pay off its debt with CASH ON HAND. My thinking is that the 30 million dollars raised will make that Feb 2009 debt retirement completely plausible. This is the single best sign of the future of Sirius XM that I have seen in many years.
The markets want visibility and it plans up to 18 months ahead. The market right now cannot see past February when it comes to satellite radio. Many analysts have speculated about a potential restructuring at that time that could wipe out shareholders. Up until now, the company has been silent. These signs are the first real indication of its intentions to avoid bankruptcy and to reduce its debt. This is not just talk. Who, for instance, would accept 30 million dollars in common stock in exchange for repayable debt if bankruptcy were even a remote possibility? NO ONE!
The only reason to enter into such a deal is the belief that the equity has more value than not only the bond interest, but its principal. That is good news, no matter how you look at it, for shareholders.
Position: Long SIRI
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This article has 369 comments:
Screw the Nasdaq and their rules. At $.35 who cares where we're listed.
NO REVERSE SPLIT! I'VE MADE THE SHORTS RICH ENOUGH!
You are dead wrong!
There are bigger SIRI fish to fry. I would like to see Mel Karmazin step up to a microphone and state his exact plan to manage the debt. I no longer want to hear "We are working on it". There is no downside to making debt refinance plans public. Why is there nothing to dissuade shareholder fears? To be so quiet and aloof smacks of fear and deperation. I don't want to hear about cost savings (Show them to us! A few layoffs aren't too impressive), synergies (Nothing worth noting has been synergized!) and EBITDA (I want to know how much we'll make AFTER ITDA!).
Also, what's this crap mentioned in yesterday's BusinessWeek article ( www.businessweek.com/m... ) about DOUBLING the number of shares? That's kinda new! Anybody know what our shares will be worth if that gets approved? Doesn't mean much if you're holding from the upper ranges, but why continue to hold if you KNOW it's gonna get diluted?
This stock is going nowhere until investors' worries about the outstanding debt is satisfied. Period. They could say they made a buttload of money last quarter, layoff more employees and sell Howard Stern's hair on eBay for all I care. I want this debt paid down or refinanced to something feasibly manageable. Now. And I'm not voting to approve more shares to get there. Do it the old-fashioned way, Mel. Be the CEO. I don't want to be your buddy. Your exemplary past in this business no longer impresses me.
I will be very surprised ( and ecstatic ) if , after a reverse split , the stock does not take another massive dive ........my one or two experiences with a reverse split are that it goes down further after the split , and most people here seem to have the same experience
Glad you can see some light at the end of the tunnel , hope it's not an oncoming train ...........still patiently long and holding , but 3.50 PPS looks like Mt. Everest right now
I understand we investors don't get to know all the workings that go on behind the scenes , but when a stock hits 31 cents , and people are deciding whether or not to bail , I think a few words are in order , IF, he has any optimism to share ....Obviously being quiet gives people the jitters
Not to mention giving him 56 million shares ( obviously he is has lost his A on the shares if he still has them ) ......but still 56M ........I bet howard would have signed on for HALF what Siri is paying for him , just to be free of censorship
Dear Steve Jobs ( AAPL CEO ) ,
Please come manage Siri for us !!!!!!
AAPL has a great quarter , but investors are a little nervous about the climate and future .......Steve immediately gets on the Horn to calm fears !!!! Tells investors AAPL will be fine
HEY MEL !!!!! Where the fuquaru
If you did not receive and email from him entitled "Let's Roll", you can get a copy by sending him an email at; savesirius@gmail.com
I have researched quite a bit of his legal history with Sirius and find him credible.
In this day of corporate malfeasance, I think a case can be made that this management needs to be replaced.
I'm no lawyer...only a guy who believes that corporations work for the shareholders and I cannot see where Sirius mgmt has satisfied that criteria....Koop
Siri Book Value = - .60 ( minus .60 )
As for the analysts, they have nothing to encourage them regarding SIRI so it is easy for them to pan the stock. In this market, at this moment, there is no advantage for them to stick their neck out on a gamble. It may be lopped off in the next round of lay-offs.
There is nothing wrong with the reverse split other than the stigma attached. Imagine what happens to your investment if the stock is de-listed (unless you are still short, that is). Once again, it will be done to raise the stock above the threshold for fund managers to consider and avoid de-listing. I say go for it.
A technical question: If a reverse split occurs, say 20:1 does the actual number of authorized shares drop by the same ratio, meaning does the board still need to have the authorization to issue more shares?
You asked for one, there you go...
So. . . . .
The best that could happen would be
The retiring of debt based on a share disbursement. similar to the.38-.45 scenario for $30M. (Debt is Gone!)
The reverse split of the stock by a 25:1 ratio. Brings the current price to about $7.50 b(based on today's prices). Now available to be traded in
401k accounts)
Now on the table are two elementrs.
1) NO DEBT!!
2) STOCK IS BEING TRADED IN 401Ks. (other than SIRI EMPLOYEE)
FAST FORWARD OCTOBER 2010:
(EVEN BY DEPRESSION STANDARDS THE ECONOMY IS RECOVERING)
Stock is now ranging upwards and a 3:2 or a 5:2 split is being considered.
Gotta go the Flux capacitor is fixed, jreplaced Red Bull for the coffee grounds. Fully caffeinated. . . . . .RUN BLUE DOG RUN
hmmmm
Red Bull & Blue Dog . . . . . could be the start of a great friendship!!
SIRI announces a 3:2 split
Mel and Sirius management have a "perfect storm" here with the garbage economy, car companies in the toilet, stock market crashing and the "Chinese Water Torture" that the FCC and NAB put them (and us) through for the last 18 months. To use a martial metaphor, they are trading ground and lives for time to marshall the reinforcements of an improving debt market, the good news of synergies (I hate that word by now) and a decent Christmas season (hopefully) to attract investors again. THAT will raise the stock price.
Of course a little complaining is understandable as we, the shareholders are bearing the brunt of the bloodletting.
BRK-A, CME, GOOG, BIDU, FFH, & NVR all have volumes of over 50K daily and a price of over $200.
You are right about the silliness of SIRI selling for $240 a share. I suspect that an upper limit will be set by the board to facilitate a price ceiling. The aspect of have a price too low hampers the 401K activity, is similar to a high stock price to the common investor. A split, or a series of splits to keep the price to a resonable to the common investor.
Splits are not one way streets.
Just remember to look both way before you decide to cross one!!
VOTE yes to SHARES followed by
A YES to a REVERSE SPLIT!!
Ho Ho Ho
IM calling the absolute bottom at .01 cent....
How did I arrive at this number....
Well... It cant go lower, unless its out of business. Thats how I got that number. Seems headed to .01. Wouldnt that be funny. They would have to do a 100 to 1 split just to get to 1. LOL LOL LOL
If you can withstand just .26 more possible downticks, then you might as well wait to sell. Not really much point now, thank god i didnt double down like my emotions almost made me do. Cooler heads prevailed.
I am betting on things improving out there and management to earn there money traversing to survive. I am buying into the extreme fear here. There is indeed facts supporting fear. I will be here every month on the 5th. We shall see.
I still do not think that Mel lied at the time the questions were asked. Things have changed since then and he needs to do what he can to maneuver the business through these times. Has anyone taken a look at your portfolio lately? How about the condition of your neighborhood Real Estate? I wouldn't want to have a CEO that was not flexible enough to swallow his pride and do what is necessary to refinance the debt while preserving as much shareholder value as possible. We still haven't heard his plan yet.
1. Looking to screw the shareholder...
2. Or looking to screw someone else.
Im looking for suggestions on the second option.
shares (at a fixed price ) to their subscribers?
or,,, perish the thought, of raising the monthly satellite
subscription to raise the cash to pay the debt off
sooner?
8,644,319 subscribers
10.42 avg rev per sub per month
12 months
$1,080,885,647.76 avg annual revenue
-$104,000,000 1st Qtr net loss
4 quarters
-$416,000,000.00 forecast 2008 annual net loss
-$48.12 loss per subscriber per year
-$4.01 loss per subscriber per month
as a SIRI listener, i would find a 4.01 added cost
for satellite radio a good value compared with
the possibility of listening to commercial radio
again. god save me from that possibility.
Meanwhile people are dropping it like the plague
My question is ....Who's buying it ??????????
Volume is high
Shareholders have a right to transparency and accountability and the CEO and Board of Directors have a fiduciary responsibility to deliver it. They have failed. That is not a matter of conjecture or conspiracy. There are no grassy knolls . . .
The product is good, the business model is good . . . why then has management failed to execute the business plan. Why is management taking "inconsistent actions" as cited in the Janco downgrade?
This compnay is fond of using talking points to communicate to shareholders. The shareholders can communicate to management with their own set of talking points:
1.) Mel Karmazin said the company was fully funded . . .
2.) Mel Karmazin said no further dilution in contradiction to the current proxy
3.) Mel Karmazin said no reverse split in contradiction to the current proxy
4.) Mel Karmazin said with regard to interoperable OEM's that "They [automakers] control the dashboard, so they can decide if they want it or they don’t want it, and if they do want it, you should assume it will probably take about three years for them to integrate it, since that’s the lead time that most of these options take before the car companies are willing to put it into production.” . . . but now says the merger of XM and Sirius hasn’t resulted in a merger of satellite capability. Merging XM and Sirius technology and installing it in new vehicles could take as long as 15 years because of the new chips required and automakers’ lead time.
I could go on but people will stop reading. Nothing conspiratorial in the above. Management is not executing the business plan.
SiriusBuzz Radio will be interviewing Michael Hartleib this evening and will take calls. I have not yet formed an opinion on the "Hartleib Manifesto" but am keeping an open mind . . . some in other forums have branded him a "nut," a "crazy uncle" and a "conspiracy" theorist. I intend to hear him for myself and hope all will do the same. He at least has a platform that has caught management's attention. I will not repeat here Mel's quote about Mr. Hartleib.
By most accounts Mel Karmazin is a decent, honorable and highly charatible man and an erudite business person. What has gone wrong?
Mel, if you are in trouble . . . if certain members of the Board have strayed from the vision of the shareholders, we will offer support to right the ship.
Board of Directors, if Mel has wandered off the reservation and is no longer capable of executing the buisness plan we need to patch up the problem fast and get the plan back on track.
We are at a tipping point . . . keeping it in the clubhouse is not helping shareholders.
The idea that a bankrupcy judge wont hear Sirius's case is troublesome. That is conjecture, and not proveable, nor can I bank that voting no to both proxies would result in that. Mel's comments about taking the company private was said intentionally to get you to sell the stock, no other reason to have said it. The interviewer was probably asked to ask the question.
I dont trust the board, the CEO, or their "numbers" any longer. How can I? Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. So if this vote is a serious consideration, that would be the "twice" and I wont go down quietly.
Motorola.....
Ford....
GM.....
AMD....
All these have terrible business models, huge debt, and none are considering paying for it with stock, or a RS. Why is Sirius?
<savesirius@gmail.c...
I will be sending a number of e-mails to everyone that has contacted me.
First of all, I'd like to remind everyone that Sirius belongs to us - not Mr. Karmazin or the Board of Directors. It is our company.
I ask all of you to please keep that in mind as we continue our fight to stop management from stealing our company from us.
While I and many of you are feeling the pain for the trust we put in Mr. Karmazin and his management, he continues to live large in Trump Tower and is basically rewarded for his failure to deliver any value to his shareholders.
As I've stated before, they will either BK this company and then privatize or dilute and then privatize - either way, any of us that are in at $3, $4 or $5 will never be made whole. As many of you are aware, a fully diluted float of 4.5billion is unbelievable enough but for management to suggest increasing the float to 8billion shares is completely incomprehensible.
I have been fielding so many phone calls, that I've not been able to draft our plan of attack which I urge all of you to make your suggestions and give your input. That said, below I will list a basic outline as well as details of my itinerary and ask all of you that plan to attend the shareholder meeting confirm this with me ASAP as we can book blocks of rooms at a substantial discount. I plan to stay at Milford Plaza - it is no Ritz Carlton or Four Seasons but it has been recently remodeled (as of two months ago) and I believe is one of the better values in the city. Rooms are available with a queen on the dates needed at $224 plus city taxes prior to any block discounts, which I'm told can be quite substantial if we are booking 30-50 rooms. The phone number is 212-869-3600 but I suggest we coordinate so that we can get the block rate and potential upgrades. My flight has been booked. I will be arriving the evening of 12/17 and will be happy to meet with people prior to the shareholder meeting as well as after. I will stay in town until Saturday 12/20 (evening) or longer if necessary so that we may plan our strategies and discuss the upcoming derivative action that will be forthcoming. Time is of the essence as we continue to hit multi-year lows and the shareholder meeting will be here before we know it. The timing of the meeting is definitely a ploy by management to dissuade as many shareholders as possible from attending (as well as the location as Corporate Headquarters cannot hold more than 100 people or so). PLEASE CONFIRM YOUR PLAN TO ATTEND SO THAT WE MAY RESERVE ROOMS.
ACTION PLAN:
> Attending the shareholder meeting is a must
> Should have escrow account open by tomorrow and will provide further details
> I'm working on drafting a derivative action that we may submit to counsel
> I'm working on putting plans together for civil disobedience and protest
> I am setting up a dial-in conference number and dial in code that we can use for weekly conference calls - this call is not a toll free number - there are no extra fees
the call in number is: 1-218-936--7979 Caller Code: 358207
> Contact Market Wire and PR News Wire to run news release on Yahoo at Sirius Stock Quote informing shareholders of forthcoming action against Sirius - each press release approx $300
> If anyone has access or time to try and contact Oppenheimer (sp?) as they own well over 100million shares - probably a waste of time, but worth a try.
> Begin interviewing high profile law firms
I suggest you all contact Ruff Law and ask for Jeffrey P Fink 800-350-6003 or e-mail at: info@ruflaw.com and inform them that you are large shareholders and that you will be holding he and his law firm responsible for the damage shareholders have incurred since this merger was consummated, damages totalling approx 2.5billion dollars as his firm had a fiduciary responsibility to protect the best interest of the Class. The case entitled Greg Brockwell et al v Sirius Satelitte Radio (Index No: 600819-07) was filed to enjoin (ie: stop) this merger at any and all costs as the merger was unlawful at its core because it was based on self-dealing and breach of fiduciary duties. In the 11th hour, Mr. Fink tried to cover his tracks by withdrawing the class action complaint, redrafting said complaint with even more egregious accusations against Mr. Karmazin and management of Sirius Satellite Radio, refiling the amended complaint as an individual action only, and then immediately (the following day) dismissing the case with prejudice. The reason Mr. Fink and his firm did this was to try to mitigate their damages and exposure but amounted to nothing more than fraud against every Sirius Radio shareholder. Because of his action, we were lulled into complacency believing that this action was to protect our interest only to find out that Mr. Fink threw us under the bus and then tried to cover his tracks to prevent being sued by the entire class of shareholders. It will not work; Mr. Fink and his firm are still liable for damages. We were denied our right to a fully informed vote as well as the right to have a judge stop this merger. Mr. Fink and his firm realize the exposure they face, their malpractice insurer has now required them to retain outside counsel from the firm Segwick and Detert, by the name of Greg Halliday (949) 852-8200 or e-mail at: greg.haliday@sdma.com . As I've stated before, there is power in numbers. I will do as much as I can. Your help is much needed and much appreciated. I believe it's time we take our company back before it's too late.
Contact media and express your views and outrage and inform them that we are becoming a well organized group of shareholders that are not going to allow for this blatant and transparent attempt to destroy shareholder value and steal our company from us.
Please share your efforts so that we can all be informed.
-----------------
Vote no to the REV-Split
Vote No to more shares
Give me the CEO job, and I'll start making calls. Should have the money by lunch. Heres my pitch...
Want to invest in these markets? Your crazy. Bonds? No way?
Currencies? Good luck picking one. How about a huge monopoly that is growing that has great cash flow? I think I could get it done.
The more and more I think about this companies actions, the more im convinced they are working for a higher power pulling the strings.
The company is inconsistant and appears to be playing me.
I implore everyone involved to do what we can to get this merger deamed illegal or to remove the board. One or the other. Either remove the merger(sirius stock would go back to $3 a share instantly(no where near the debt, synergies are a joke, and XM goes out of business(if the combined companies cant get good lending, why would XM by itself?)Cos1000, do you see what Im saying here?
Do you see the lie now? XM as a stand alone company? Not possible if you take every word Tyler says as truth, then the reasons why Sirius is in trouble now, would be the exact reasons XM goes under. Then their is no competition, and Sirius stock doesnt need to pay those high contracts when the switch over. Mr. Hartlieb sensed the screwing long before we did, because he held stock and followed this clown management team longer. The radio being surpressed is all the evidence I need.
If only 50 percent of what he says is true, then we all need to join the suit, any suit, or begin more class action suits to scare the SHIT out of management.
How is Apollo voting? Oppenheimer? Why would they vote yes? Were they acquiring shares just to pass this vote? OMG, if thats the case then any good news about share acquisition to this point is the reverse of good news. Geez, the possibilities of manipulation are endless. Why do we speculate to these things? Because of maangements tight mouth for years. They communicate about as good as a 13 year old girl does to her father about sex issues. LOL LOL LOL
I can show you how mathematically 1000000 people can start the day wanting to own Microsoft, and only 10000 people who wanted to sell microsoft on that day, and the SP could reach .01 withink hours.
How? Simple. Buyers want the lower tick. Sellers were flushed out early. Now thats left are naked short shares being handed to buyers are every decreasing prices. If it drops they will buy, if it drops more they will buy. Remember, they want to buy. As it drops, more sellers come in. Etc... Not hard. Just use all the MM's tactics at their disposal, and its not hard. So why argue if any SP is valid? Most arent. Sirius is valid if people are realizing that the company doesnt want them to own this stock. Then is OVERPRICED.
I would love 5 minutes of phone time with him and Tyler.
Good news? Heres similar good news, if thats good news...
GOOD NEWS!!!! I have cancer!!!
GOOD NEWS!!!! Sirius just lost 1 billion dollars!!
GOOD NEWS!!!! Sirius is going to make your investment worth 45% less than its currently valued at. And then take away your biggest weopon(large number of shares)
If that is good news, than you were probably buying WM about 1 year ago. And being absolutely flabergasted why it was falling. They lost money, thats good, issuing shares to pay debt, thats good, defaulting on loans to other banks, good good.....
Hi Olga,
As you know the state of the affairs of SiriusXm are to the point now ridiculous. We are being duped by management.
I am amazed at the sell-off in this stock over the course of many months. I would never have dreamed that the stock would trade today at 27 cents per share or a 1B market cap. I would also add that Goldman Sachs and others (probably hedge funds) are having a field day with the converts and naked short sales. This has been going on (in my opinion) for months and months with no enforcement action taken by the authorities. SIRI is wrongly trading at these low prices and I am quite surprised that Mel Karmazin has not been more pro-active in doing something to stop it.
Now with the upcoming shareholders meeting in December more deception is possibly lurking. Since you seem to understand the clear concept of the share price going down now wait to see what would happen with a reverse split and dilution.
The management is so silent at this point and that is the main concern of the shareholders. You would think Mel would give some news release and at least try to least stablize the share price.
Almost 20 million subs and we are heading down?
Three loans that can be serviced and we heading down?
In five years we could be close to 30 million subs and we are heading down?
The fastest growing company in America last year and we are heading down?
I guess he wants it as low as it will go for the reverse split. What is his story? Really what is Mel trying to accomplish?
We need your help to expose these issues.
Thank you in advance for your consideration to help us bring our issues to light through your efforts.
Thankfully yours,
Frank
Please folks, I did not mean to post his email address.
in the interim . . lets hope that others will respect the guy's privacy
Let me know what I need to do to get you back on and I will immediately.
Very sorry man,
Koop
olga_kharif@businesswe...
On Oct 23 02:13 PM chizzle wrote:
> Who is Olga?
I will make good on it,,, Better than Mel. LOL...
That said, maybe some really bad news would move the price up, since the converse has been true.
I did not know a name existed for Convertible Bond stock manipulation as we are seeing here with Sirius. "Death spiral financing" defines exactly what happened here. But, was Mel in on it? I think he wants to buy Sirius on the cheap. We will see.
Thanks KOOP for that wiki link. Wow this is a very expensive education.
Apart from the frivolous nature of these suits, they ignore the most important premise of corporations: managers manage, shareholders sharehold. If you don't like it, vote against it. Vote against the split. Vote against the increase in shares. Vote out the board. By all means, this is your right. But don't think you can manage a publicly held corporation better than the people the board hired (and yes, you could, in fact, do worse).
Suing a company that is already down is pure stupidity. You won't get your money back, but the plaintiffs lawyer will make hundreds of thousands. This is the sole purpose of these suits. Don't be a sucker (or be a sucker again, depending on your SIRI outlook).
The event chain after the merger is damming for Sirius management. Folks see Mel involved in a stock deception plan to take Sirius on the cheap. On.. and on, we have come the point that an investigation is needed. A class action is a one way to get a full investigation and at the same time recover damages as needed.
We have time. Maybe things will get better. A little info from Mel would help. Sirius IR could start answering the phone again and help allot.
Vote No to the Split
Vote No to more Stock
Don't worry about the guys posting here to vote yes. The Sirius trolls are not a worry and the "in and out day traders" will not be in for voting.
read this about convertible arbitrage.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Koop
On Oct 23 02:34 PM mark2003awol wrote:
> Death spiral financing
>
> I did not know a name existed for Convertible Bond stock manipulation
> as we are seeing here with Sirius. "Death spiral financing" defines
> exactly what happened here. But, was Mel in on it? I think he wants
> to buy Sirius on the cheap. We will see.
>
> Thanks KOOP for that wiki link. Wow this is a very expensive education.
>
>
SiriusXM has a total share count of 3.5B. That "B" means Billion! Do your self and the ambulance chasing sharks a favor and drop the suit. I believe that the list of the major holders that can be accessed from any web based search engine would speak volumes. Just in case your computer skills are lacking, here is a partial list:
APOLLO MANAGEMENT IV, L.P.
OPPENHEIMER FUNDS, INC.
Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd
VANGUARD GROUP, INC. (THE)
Clearbridge Advisors, LLC
STATE STREET CORPORATION
TIAA-CREF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC
ING INVESTMENTS, LLC
Cypress Funds LLC
MLT Management, LLC
RiverSource Growth Fd
OPPENHEIMER GLOBAL FUND
RiverSource Large Cap Equity Fd
FIDELITY CONTRAFUND INC
JENNISON 20/20 FOCUS FUND
Legg Mason Partners Aggressive Growth Fd
VANGUARD MID-CAP INDEX FUND
OPPENHEIMER CAPITAL APPRECIATION FUND
OPPENHEIMER GLOBAL SECURITIES VARIABLE ACCOUNT
FIDELITY SMALL CAP STOCK FUND
WOW. . . Quite a list of financial minds! I would be interested in finding out if your class includes any of the above. The above list's holdings and insiders comprises 30% of the number of current shares. Further investigation led me to find that the stock is owned by 300 (yes 300) institutions. Is there a single one of these 300 firms interested in the class action suit? The answer is NO. The actions by Mike may be pure in nature, but he is not a financial expert. I also point out that any legal firm taking on such litigation has a very slim chance of having financial experience of this nature. The market has been ROCKED by recent events that have led to the current decline in all stock prices. Do the stock a favor and urge Mike to propose initiatives that protect the current equity and not destroy it with litigation. Poison Pill to restrict takeover, restriction on Excessive Executive Bonuses, and a demand for a published business plan would be better served in moving the price of the stock more in line with it value!
Poison Pill to restrict takeover, restriction on Excessive Executive Bonuses, and a demand for a published business plan would be better served in moving the price of the stock more in line with it value!
But don't exactly agree with your anti class action statments. Don't ever think some very smart lawyers could not take on Sirius. An investigation is in order.
I don't agree that is would be distracting. We would like to foce a little effort that is lacking. I don't see managment doing anything at this time. Lets give them a reason to work. IMO they planned this and we need to stop the takeover.
Vote no to the REV-Split
Vote No to more shares
I'm not saying that I know what their doing but, because I don't, doesn't mean I should file a lawsuit. Currently their running this company, like it or not, we will hear from them before the annual meeting on 3rd quarter results, and 4th qtr progress and projections. Right now its not worth commenting on any of this BS. I can smell the P$#$#SS in the air and its pathetic.
Bring me my gun and the leash....... the dog and I need some fresh air......
You guys think Long Investors will be wiped out if the RS happens....
Vote no to the RS and see what happens to ALL INVESTORS!!!!
HAHA I don't even care what you guys conjure up anymore about
"Oh no RS" "SIRI Will be shorted back to nothing in no time"
Truth is.... THEY WON'T
Who in their right minds would short a company with
NO DEBT
and POSITIVE CASH FLOW
and GROWING SUBSCRIBER RATES
??????
Answer that for me, because....
If they issue stock and get rid of their debt....
Then RS..... The stock will be....
1.) AT A HIGHER MORE APPROPRIATE PRICE
2.) LESS SHARES OUTSTANDING (3.5 billion is a far to great amount for a company this size anyways)
3.) The Company will have breathing room......
Please someone agree with me so i know i'm not the only one that see the light at the end of the tunnel!!!!
----------------------... LONG SIRI ! !!!!!!!!! ----------------------...
AVERAGE DOWN when the shares are diluted..... it will be probably around .05 to .10 a share..... Won't take much to get your average down there.... Then you won't have to make up so much money after the RS..... It's That simple
I know it will be a gut buster to do that... But hey if we all made this bad of a decision now.... and that's a clear and simple way of making it up.... That's what i'm going to do
I appreciate you trying to keep things in perspective. It's easy to jump on a "kill everyone" bandwagon after watching all their money go down the toilet.........I know, I've been on and off most of the wagons that have gone by...
I agree that we need to sit back and wait no matter WHAT is really going on here. The reason,,,I don't think we could do anything about it anyway.
At this point, I think every single scenario that has passed these boards is possible.
THE BEST CASE, Mel really is doing everything in his power to save the company during the WORTS economic time in almost 100 years. Has everyone forgotten that some of America's proudest companies that have been around for more than 100 years have completely disappeared or are in serious danger of it? (Lehman, GM, ...). If the situation really is that bad, we should be applauding a reverse split and dilution instead of BK. GM is in danger of going out of business but we all find NO REASON why SIRI can't get out of trouble tomorrow if they wanted to. WHAT??? I got news for you folks, the job losses in this country are growing by the day and there isn't an end in sight. You all base your value of SIRI on 08 year end 19.5 mil subs and 09 year end 20.5 mil subs and can't understand what's wrong........If this economy is in as bad of shape as it looks, SATRAD will be the LAST thing on anyone's mind and we'll be looking at 09 year end numbers of 17.5 mil subs. You better factor that into your possible scenarios.
WORST CASE,,,pick any one of the wildest conspiracy theories that have come accross these boards and I could believe it. Why? Well, the short story is that I believe that there's a possibility of there being much more to SATRAD than we're talking about.........To be able to instantly spread information, data, video, (much more than music) around the country, North America?, The world? without interruption, and to do it on something as small as a Stiletto........there'... no telling what the future possibilities are with this technology and more importantly WHO knows it. By the way,,,,there is now a MONOPOLY on this technology. I've heard of the government using SIRI for emergency responce. That will be just the beginning, they'll use it for everything.....If the possibilities are that wild, than that would mean we're talking about HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of dollars. If so, there's no telling WHO's driving this ship. It sure wouldn't be Mel...........
SO, either way and everything in between, sit back and watch because if it's the best case, let Mel do his job......If it's the one of the worst case conspiracy theories than you all can sue who ever you want, SIRI is being protected and you'll get no where.
One thing I do now believe for sure. We are NOT in the 9th inning or the 12th round.................... heard Mel himself say that taking over XM was one of the reasons for him coming to SIRI. That was only 4 years ago when XM out numbered SIRI 10 to 1. Now SIRI has TOTAL domination with 19+ mil subs..................... you really think that only 2 months after the completion of the 4+ YEAR takeover plan that we'd all be dancing in the streets rich??????
Mel is right on track with HIS plan. For him,,,,,THIS IS ONLY THE 2nd ROUND....................
Is the "plan" , to compress and dilute us into oblivion ??? Thereby bringing in a fresh round of investors that start at 5.00 PPS , but the equivilant of .05 PPS for us ??????
Looks that way thus far .......however , at this point , I have no doubt ( barring BK ) that I can hold and eventually beat .25 I would sell and re-buy at .10 , but this MIGHT be as low as we go .....There was a lot of volume today .........A lot of selling to be sure , but someone is also buying those shares being sold
At this price you will at least double your money (unless bankruptcy) in the near future.
Jay
But because of the amount of shares they have, it would take alot of funding from another company to do a buyout....
Well This Might Be Sirius, ..........I agree with you. The RS is not a done deal yet though, I'd like to see
1. Feb, 09 debt taken care of without a lot of dilution or convertibles, cash and some bank financing would be nice......
2. Get the stock back to .80 -.90 on the debt news and then a reverse split, 1 for 10, that's about as likely as anything else out there....
3. They then use the additional authorized shares which would be reduced by the RS to 800M from 8B, sell them in blocks throughout the year to institutions, and pay of the rest of the debt for 09.
That means Mel has to address the Feb 09 debt resolution now during 3rd qtr reporting and outline the rest of the plan for shareholder authorization for execution as markets allow in 1st & 2nd Qtr of 2009. Remember having the Feb 09 debt out of the way now will build back shareholder confidence, the reverse spit is necessary to the SP up and outstanding shares down even with the 8 Billion authorization. I don't see any other way to reduce outstanding shares and make Stock Price attractive and allowed for institutional ownership participation.
Now that's the only positive scenario that I can come up with. If during the conference call for 3rd Quarter there isn't this type of plan or one which essentially accomplishes the same thing, I will sell all my shares, before the end of the year, take my losses and listen to anyone who wants to file a class action for Management Stupidity..
I read you guys all with pretty good imput. But, much of what was conspiricy last year is now a reality effecting the enire US. Why would Sirius managment not be conspering to take over the stock? If I had a billion, I would own Sirius and so would any of you.
All I am saying is an investigation is needed. Stock Holders of Sirius must protect the investment from possible evil plans. Self protection is prudent.
IMO, Mel planned and was in on the fall of this stock. We need an investigation! We must not let the RS happen.
Don't be fooled by talk of BK. It will never happen. Mel has 30 ways to hell in funding this debt. The worst case would be renew the bond holders as they are pushing to renew at 3.8 percent. With Bond holders jumping to fund, no court would ever grant chapter 11 protection!
LOL, I just keep posting the same info because the Sirius Goons do the same. So folks, know your not alone.
Vote No to the Split
Vote No to more Stock
I think "THE PLAN" is reverse split and share dilution, no matter HOW we got here.
If Mel is innocent of any wrong doing and he has acted in good faith, than that means we are where we are because he got in WAY over his head and was cought with his pants down in this credit/economy crisis.
If Mel's a crook and we're here as the result of some calculated conspiracy, than using the long holders to pay for all of this was the plan from the beginning.
Either way, here we are, and reverse split with dilution is the only way out.
I don't think there's any POSSIBILITY of BK.................
First of course I commiserate with everyone, including myself, when it comes to the SIRIUS losses incurred. This stock has had a mind of it's own from July 29 until now. Since, it's been like trying to fight Cyborg Arnold. The mere mortal has proven ineffective from stopping this onslaught. .25. It's just nuts. I think today was a critical day in the life of the stock. It must have run into many a stoploss trigger and the sales were on. 103M shares today traded--the funny part is the stock lost .06. That just shows the control MM's have. Someone asked earlier who is buying on the other side. My easy answer is shorts buying back--question is who are they returning those shares to? We'll never know. They are all sneaking out the back door, which was my fear. I'm still waiting for that stupid first short interest report for Oct. See, this is how they keep things from indie investors, then release when it's last weeks news and useless. Anyway, as said, it stood @ 199M as of Sept 25, down from 236M on Sept 10. I suspect it's gone down considerably at least as of today whatever that number is. So who is selling? My take is most of those institutions listed here earlier. I expect the next several days will see very high volume as of today with more loss cutting. I've been doing some research as always and continue to find Mel's/the c0mpany's inconsistencies. I went back to the merger deal, the 10Q and whatever article I can find and the doubts and strangeness abounds. Like this:
Reported:
June 05, 2007
SIRIUS Lands $250 Million Term Loan (SIRI, XMSR)
SIRIUS Satellite Radio Holdings (SIRI-NASDAQ) just received a $250 million term loan from Morgan Stanley. The facility will mature in five and a half years and have covenants substantially similar to those under the Company's existing 9 5/8% Senior Notes. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes. Morgan Stanley is acting as the sole lead arranger and has committed to provide the entire principal amount of the facility, subject to customary closing conditions.
David Frear, EVP and CFO of SIRIUS: "This transaction takes advantage of favorable market conditions and significantly strengthens our balance sheet."
Shares were up 1% for a bit but are now close to flat in after-hours. At $2.85 per share, investors are mostly still underwater since the merger announcement date. This will give the company some extra working capital and a cushion, and now we know who at least one of the creditors will be if the company runs into trouble if the XM Satellite Radio (XMSR-NASDAQ) merger fails. XM has already sold some of the satellite node rights and access essentially as a space-REIT, but it's always possible they'll look at the terms and try to do a copycat financing.
Ahhhh...Morgan Stanley. But wait. Then in SIRI's filing is this:
In June 2007, we entered into a Term Credit Agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions. The Term Credit Agreement provides for a term loan of $250,000, which has been drawn. Interest under the Term Credit Agreement is based, at our option, on (i) adjusted LIBOR plus 2.25% or (ii) the higher of (a) the prime rate and (b) the Federal Funds Effective Rate plus 1/2 of 1.00%, plus 1.25%. LIBOR borrowings may be made for interest periods, at our option, of one, two, three or six months (or, if agreed by all of the lenders, nine or twelve months). The loan amortizes in equal quarterly installments of 0.25% of the initial aggregate principal amount for the first four and a half years, with the balance of the loan thereafter being repaid in four equal quarterly installments. The loan matures on December 20, 2012. The loan is guaranteed by our material wholly owned subsidiaries, including Satellite CD Radio, Inc. (the “Guarantors”). The Term Credit Agreement is secured by a lien on substantially all of our and the Guarantors’ assets, including our four satellites and the shares of the Guarantors. The Term Credit Agreement contains customary affirmative covenants and event of default provisions. The negative covenants contained in the Term Credit Agreement are substantially similar to those contained in the indenture governing our 9 5 / 8 % Senior Notes due 2013.
Hmmmm. What does "we entered into a Term Credit Agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions" mean. The word synydicate = a combination of bankers or capitalists...
Possibilities = 1. erroneous reporting 2. Accurate reporting and SIRI forgot it was only MS 3. MS arranged deal with other players 4. SIRI just not wanting to call out IB as source. However we now know after the fact that MS has it's meathooks in this thing in other places so I guess you decide. Possibly the fact that the stock was flat in afterhours might say plenty. What bothers me is how Frears has the nuts to say "it strengthens our balance sheet." How does taking on 250M in debt strengthen one's balance sheet? I don't get that.
More on the next post...
Exhibit 3.2AMENDMENT TO THEAMENDED AND RESTATED BY-LAWSOFSIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO
INC. Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., a corporation organized and existing
under the laws of the State of Delaware, in accordance with Article IX of its
Amended and Restated By-Laws (the "By-Laws"), hereby inserts Article X of the
By-Laws as follows: ARTICLE XPOST-MERGER ACTIONS "At any time prior to July
28, 2010 (i) any termination or replacement of either the Chief Executive
Officer or Chairman of the Board of Directors as of July 28, 2008 (or such
individual's successor) and (ii) any sale, transfer or other disposition of
assets, rights or properties which are material, individually or in the
aggregate, to the corporation (or the execution of any agreement to take any
such action), shall require the prior approval of a majority of the Independent
Directors (as defined in the NASDAQ MarketPlace Rules) serving on the Board of
Directors." {Remainder of page intentionally left blank}
But their safe harbors are incredible:
"The guidance contained herein are based upon a number of assumptions
and estimates that, while considered reasonable by us when taken as a whole,
are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive
uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond our control. In
addition, the guidance is based upon specific assumptions with respect to
future business conditions, some or all of which will change. The guidance,
like any forecast, is necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected
that the assumptions upon which the guidance is based will not prove to be
valid or will vary from actual results. Actual results will vary from the
guidance and the variations may be material. Consequently, the guidance should
not be regarded as a representation by SIRIUS or any other person that the
synergies, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow will actually be achieved. You
are cautioned not to place undue reliance on this information."
or
"This
communication contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but
are not limited to, statements about the benefits of the business combination
transaction involving Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio
Holdings Inc., including potential synergies and cost savings and the timing
thereof, future financial and operating results, the combined company's plans,
objectives, expectations and intentions with respect to future operations,
products and services; and other statements identified by words such as
"anticipate," "believe," "plan," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "will,"
"should," "may," or words of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements
are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of SIRIUS' and XM's
management and are inherently subject to significant business, economic and
competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are difficult to
predict and generally beyond the control of SIRIUS and XM. Actual results may
differ materially from the results anticipated in these forward-looking
statements.The following factors, among others, could cause actual results to
differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed
in the forward-looking statement: general business and economic conditions; the
performance of financial markets and interest rates; the ability to obtain
governmental approvals of the transaction on a timely basis; the failure to
realize synergies and cost-savings from the transaction or delay in realization
thereof; the businesses of SIRIUS and XM may not be combined successfully, or
such combination may take longer, be more difficult, time-consuming or costly
to accomplish than expected; and operating costs and business disruption
following the merger, including adverse effects on employee retention and on
our business relationships with third parties, including manufacturers of
radios, retailers, automakers and programming providers. Additional factors
that could cause SIRIUS' and XM's results to differ materially from those
described in the forward-looking statements can be found in SIRIUS' and XM's
Annual Reports on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007, which are
filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") and available at
the SEC's Internet site"
more on the next post so these don't become one long post....
"To fund incremental cash requirements, or as market opportunities arise, we may choose to raise additional funds through the sale of additional debt securities, equity securities or a combination of debt and equity securities. The incurrence of additional indebtedness would result in increased fiscal obligations and could contain restrictive covenants. The sale of additional equity or convertible debt securities may result in dilution to our stockholders. These additional sources of funds may not be available or, if available, may not be available on terms favorable to us. Financings and Capital Requirements
We have historically financed our operations through the sale of debt and equity securities.
Future Liquidity and Capital Resource Requirements
In 2004, we issued $300,000 in aggregate principal amount of our 2 1 / 2 % Convertible Notes due 2009. These notes are convertible, at the option of the holders, into shares of our common stock at a conversion rate of 226.7574 shares of common stock for each $1,000.00 principal amount, or $4.41 per share of common stock. These notes mature in February 2009. If our common stock does not trade above $4.41 per share prior to the maturity of these notes it is not likely that the holders will convert them prior to maturity, and we will have to refinance these notes when they mature in February 2009.
Based upon our current plans, we believe that our cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities, and current availability under our credit facility, will be sufficient to cover our estimated funding needs through cash flow breakeven; the point at which our revenues are sufficient to fund expected operating expenses, capital expenditures, merger related costs, working capital requirements, interest payments and taxes. Our first quarter of positive free cash flow was reached in the fourth quarter of 2006, and we achieved positive free cash flow for the second half of 2007. Our financial projections are based on assumptions, which we believe are reasonable but contain significant uncertainties.
We regularly evaluate our plans and strategy. These evaluations often result in changes to our plans and strategy, some of which may be material and significantly change our cash requirements or cause us to achieve cash flow breakeven at a later date. These changes in our plans or strategy may include: the acquisition of unique or compelling programming; the introduction of new features or services; significant new or enhanced distribution arrangements; investments in infrastructure, such as satellites, equipment or radio spectrum; and acquisitions of third parties that own programming, distribution, infrastructure, assets, or any combination of the foregoing."
So according to this, they can pretty much do whatever the f%ck they want without recrimination. Maybe we will or maybe we won't! And perfectly legally. Mel can be out in public saying "they will do this, or will do that" because he's covered like a comfey blankey right here at home base. I just wsh I would have read some of this stuff closer.
More on my next post...
WHEN: Wednesday, July 30, 2008
WHERE: CNBC's "Squawk on the Street"
Following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with Mel Karmazin, the new CEO of the combined Sirius/XM Satellite Radio.
All references must be sourced to CNBC
CNBC's David Faber: MEL KARMAZIN, THE CEO OF THE NEW COMBINED SIRIUS/XM SATELLITE RADIO. A PLEASURE TO HAVE YOU.
Mel Karmazin: THANKS. GOOD TO BE HERE, DAVID.
Faber: 17 MONTHS AGO, YOU ANNOUNCED PLANS TO GET THESE TWO COMPANIES TOGETHER. YESTERDAY YOU CLOSED THIS DEAL. DID THE LONG PERIOD OF TIME HURT THE PROSPECTS FOR THIS COMBINED COMPANY?
Karmazin: NO. I THINK THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COMBINED COMPANY ARE EXTRAORDINARY. IT CERTAINLY PUT THE COMPANY IN LIMBO FOR FAR TOO LONG. IT CERTAINLY HAD CONFUSION IN THE MARKETPLACE, IN RETAIL PARTICULARLY. AND IT ALSO PUT US ON RADIO SILENCE AS FAR AS TALKING TO INVESTORS. SO, IT TOOK FAR TOO LONG. I'M GLAD IT'S DONE. I LIKE THIS OUTCOME BETTER THAN TAKING THE TIME AND HAVING IT NOT HAPPEN. WE HAD TO DEAL WITH THE CHANGE OF CONTROL IN XM DEBT. SO, IN THE LAST WEEK, IN A VERY UGLY MARKET, WE RAISED $1.250 BILLION. IT WAS UGLY RAISING THE MONEY, BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GOT IT DONE, AND WE RAISED THE LAST PIECE OF THE MONEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AT 7:00, AND WE CLOSED THE MERGER MONDAY NIGHT AT 8:00.
Faber: ON THE POINT OF MONEY, ARE YOU DONE? ARE YOU FULLY FINANCED AT THIS POINT AT SIRIUS XM?
Karmazin: YEAH. ANY LIQUIDITY QUESTION THAT HAD EXISTED ON THE INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES, OBVIOUSLY, ARE NOW PUT TO REST.AND ON THE COMBINED COMPANY, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE A FULLY FUNDED PLAN. YOU KNOW, WE HAVE SOME CONVERTS THAT COME DUE IN 2009, AND WE'RE OPTIMISTIC THAT ON THE SIRIUS SIDE, THAT INVESTORS WILL START TO SEE THE VALUE OF THIS COMBINATION AND WE'LL PRICE THROUGH. IT AND IF FOR ANY REASON WE DON'T, YOU KNOW, WE'LL JUST ROLL THOSE OVER SOME TIME IN 2009 OR FINANCE IT WITH SOMETHING THAT MIGHT BE MORE ATTRACTIVE. BUT YEAH, YOU KNOW, WE FEEL REALLY GOOD ABOUT OUR LIQUIDITY.
Karmazin: DAVID, I THINK THE FIRST THING TO LOOK AT IS IF YOU JUST LOOK AT THE TRAILING 12 MONTHS REVENUE OF THE COMBINED COMPANY, WE HAVE $2.2 BILLION. THAT'S PROBABLY A NUMBER GREATER THAN MOST PEOPLE THINK ABOUT WHEN THEY THINK ABOUT SATELLITE RADIO. THAT MAKES US THE SECOND LARGEST RADIO COMPANY IN THE UNITED STATES. ONLY CLEAR CHANNEL WILL HAVE HIGHER REVENUE, AND THEIR GROWTH -- THERE IS NO GROWTH, AND WE'RE GROWING DRAMATICALLY. WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THE NUMBER OF SUBSCRIBERS -- OVER 19 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS -- THAT MAKES US SECOND TO COMCAST IN THE SUBSCRIPTION BUSINESS, MORE THAN DIRECTV, ECOSTAR --
Faber: ALL IMPRESSIVE MEL--
Karmazin: AND NOW THE SYNERGIES.
Faber: -- BUT LET'S TALK ABOUT THE FUTURE HERE.
Karmazin: AND I THINK THAT IS THE FUTURE, OKAY? I THINK THE FACT THAT WE HAVE IDENTIFIED IMMEDIATELY $400 MILLION OF SYNERGY ON VIRTUALLY EVERY LINE ITEM OF THE P&L, SYNERGIES THAT WE ARE VERY, VERY CONFIDENT TO BE ABLE TO DELIVER NET OF THE COST BEFORE 2009. SO WHEN YOU TAKE THAT SYNERGY AND YOU ADD IT TO THE COMBINED COMPANY, YOU GET, FOR THE FIRST TIME, POSITIVE EBITDA. NOW, IN MY OPINION, POSITIVE EBITDA ISN'T THE SAME THING AS MAKING MONEY.SO, WE'LL HAVE $300 MILLION OF EBITDA IN 2009, AND BUT FOR A PAYMENT CONNECTED WITH THE SATELLITE, SIRIUS IS PUTTING UP A NEW SATELLITE IN '09, AND WE HAVE ONE PAYMENT -- BEFORE THAT SATELLITE, WE WILL BE FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE.
Faber: OH, MY GOD, FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE. YOU KNOW HOW MANY TIMES I'VE BEEN ASKING YOU THIS QUESTION, WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO BE FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE? SO ARE YOU ANSWERING IT OR NOT?
Karmazin: I'M ABSOLUTELY ANSWERING IT, AND WE WOULD HAVE BEEN FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE AT SIRIUS, FOR SURE. IT WOULD HAVE TAKEN US LONGER, BUT ONCE THAT PAYMENT IS DONE IN '09, YOU SHOULD THINK ABOUT SIRIUS AND YOU SHOULD THINK ABOUT VALUING SIRIUS. YOU KNOW, WE CAN TALK ABOUT WHAT THE COMPANY COULD BE WORTH OR ISN'T WORTH, BUT WHEN YOU'RE GOING TO VALUE OUR COMPANY, YOU'RE GOING TO VALUE US ON FREE CASH FLOW, BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT WE'RE RUNNING THE COMPANY FOR. AND THIS COMPANY COMBINED IS A COMPANY THAT WOULD GENERATE A LOT OF FREE CASH FLOW, AND THAT FREE CASH FLOW IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO GROW.
Faber: LET'S TALK ABOUT THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. OBVIOUSLY, CAR SALES VERY IMPORTANT, BECAUSE YOU COME INSTALLED IN SO MANY MODELS. THEY'RE DOWN SHARPLY. IS THAT GOING TO HURT YOU? AND WHAT ABOUT CHURN, GIVEN TOUGH ECONOMIC TIMES, ARE YOU SEEING AN INCREASE IN PEOPLE WHO SAY AFTER THE THREE MONTHS FREE, I'M NOT INTERESTED?
Faber: SO, YOU'RE NOT SEEING ANY HEAD WINDS FROM THE TOUGH ECONOMY, PEOPLE SAYING, YOU KNOW WHAT, IT'S $12 A MONTH, IT'S A GOOD SERVICE, BUT I DON'T NEED TO PAY IT?
Karmazin: YEAH, IF YOU SPEND TIME IN YOUR CAR, THE 43 CENTS A DAY -- WE'RE NOT SEEING ANYTHING. IT'S A LOGICAL QUESTION, IT'S SOMETHING WE'RE WATCHING.BUT IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE FACT THAT IF DETROIT SLOWED DOWN FROM 16 MILLION TO CALL IT 14 MILLION, AND OUR PENETRATION RATE IS IN 50% OF THE CARS, AND OUR CONVERSION RATE IS ABOUT 50%, THEN WE'RE ADDING 3.5 MILLION NEW SUBSCRIBERS A YEAR AT ROUGHLY $120. SO, WE'RE ADDING $400 MILLION TO $500 MILLION A YEAR JUST IF DETROIT SELLS, YOU KNOW, 14 MILLION CARS.
Faber: RIGHT. I'VE GOT LESS THAN 30 SECONDS. THE STOCK PRICES IS VERY LOW --
Karmazin: IT SUCKS.
Faber: IT'S A VERY LOW PRICE. FORGET MARKET CAP. ARE YOU GOING TO DO A REVERSE SPLIT? IT'S EMBARRASSING TO LOOK AT SOMETHING WITH A ONE IN FRONT OF IT.
Karmazin: WELL, IT'S EMBARRASSING, AND I HOPE WE WON'T HAVE TO LOOK AT SOMETHING WITH A ONE IN FRONT OF IT FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME.
Faber: COULD YOU CONSIDER A REVERSE SPLIT JUST TO GET THE STOCK PRICE UP THERE? SOME PEOPLE CAN'T EVEN BUY THAT KIND OF A STOCK.
Karmazin: YOU KNOW, WE CAN CONSIDER ANYTHING, BUT THERE'S NOBODY THAT I FOUND THAT THEY REALLY CAN'T BUY IT. IF SOMEBODY REALLY WANTS TO OWN THIS STOCK and they WANT TO HAVE A GROWTH, THEY CAN BUY IT AT THIS PRICE. IT'S MECHANICS. IT'S A SPLIT, AND I JUST THINK THAT WALL STREET'S SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW WHAT THE VALUE IS.
Faber: WELL, 17 MONTHS, BUT YOU LOOK PRETTY GOOD. I'VE GOT TO SAY, MAN. I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU'VE BEEN DOING --
Karmazin: I'VE BEEN ON A HUNGER STRIKE UNTIL I GOT THIS DEAL DONE.
Faber: MEL KARMAZIN, THANK YOU SO MUCH. THE CEO OF THE NEW COMBINED SIRIUS XM.
More on the next post...
I LIKE THIS OUTCOME BETTER THAN TAKING THE TIME AND HAVING IT NOT HAPPEN. WE HAD TO DEAL WITH THE CHANGE OF CONTROL IN XM DEBT. SO, IN THE LAST WEEK, IN A VERY UGLY MARKET, WE RAISED $1.250 BILLION. IT WAS UGLY RAISING THE MONEY, BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GOT IT DONE, AND WE RAISED THE LAST PIECE OF THE MONEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AT 7:00, AND WE CLOSED THE MERGER MONDAY NIGHT AT 8:00.
One still has to wonder what the f%ck they were doing raising 1.250B, and "raised the last piece of the money" an hour before closing the merger...WHEN...you had 1.5 years to be ready and sure you could actually afford this. Sirius Satellite Radio mortgaged the snot out of it's shareholders. Many other articles state that XM was on the verge of BK. I still would like the answer to this financing deal. What we're led to believe is no financing is in place until one week before closing. Why? Doesn't make any sense. Needs explanation. Unlless they were trying like f%ck to get banks but waited until the last minute to go to MS, et al, as if Mel was playing chicken with the banks. Then If XM was on the verge of BK, why not wait until they filed and pick up the pieces like the subs in BK court? Personally I think the reason for that is because it would have tied those subs up for maybe a year and SIRI needed those subs NOW. RIGHT NOW. So they did the deal with the devil to do it and sold out the shareholder.
More on the next post....
I'm still here....
more on my next post...
A: Among other things, includng having to pay an extra 25M deal fee, they are prohibited to raising their fees for 3 years as a stipulation of the merger.
I've been doing some thinking like all of you have as to what might be the realized fate of SIRI XM. I keep thinking about Mel constantly saying he needs time. I keep looking at the stock price over the past 3-4 years since Mel joined and see how it has just crashed--and with it, all shareholder value as we all know way too well. Then I look at the statements they made in the merger and 10Q. Then what Mel said to Faber about "rolling over" the Feb '09, then the short on the common NO ONE BUT CRAMER WANTS TO TALK ABOUT, then finally the Proxy and I can only come to one conclusion. Mel has already foretold what will happen here. Keep in mind to he can not be oustered until 2010 and that can ONLY be by board majority so the whole board would have to be oustered now to get to Mel. But what I see that he is doing is pretending this set of shareholders mean nothing. He is only looking at next year and the year after. And to get there, the only way to do that is through the massive common issue to cover the debt, talent, and who knows what else. People like Howard. Oppenhemer, etc.. wil be reimbursed with new shares to make them whole. And the reverse is just to make the company look respectable again/give the new short hedge a place to go. This stock has 0 chance of becoming respectable on its own. It is done. All current shareholders will be able to do from here is go through it and hope the company turns around in better economics. Talk about tainted. This common is tainted and will never recover and Mel knows it. He needs to execute the proxy, reverse, change the ticker and basically start over and hope people eventually calm down and forget. That's this company's only chance. There has been way too much negative sh%t written and conjectured about this iteration. The tragedy in all of this is us. The shareholders he pretends to care about. He cares about the company not us and will sacrifice us to get what he wants.
We have talked here about Mel's legacy. That this was his make or break. This is a true statement, but we were wrong about US. He needs at least 3 more years to make this company any kind of profitable and that's all he cares about. That's how he is going to exit this industry. He's what 66? He is going to stick with this, then he's going to retire a hero in business. He'll be known as the guy who MADE satellite radio. Again, at the expense of the sharehlolder. He doesn't care about shareholders, he's ruthless. All he cares about is winning--at any cost. I no longer believe BK will be a reality. I do believe the shares and the reverse will be approved. I feel like they have that figured out already. Then they will have al the shares they need to make this one or that one whole. Not us though. We get f%cked and there is 99% chance there is nothing anyone will be able to do about it. They are safe harbored to the hilt like a castle or a fleet of armored tanks. This tickers stock price at meeting time will be anywhere between .05 - .20. That will be Mel's argument for the reverse and the whole process will start all over again. All, just as planned. Then the new short will be on after the reverse and he'll have about two years to make this thing happen--which is exactly what he's done since he go here in Nov of '04. And we'll just have to see how it goes. It's a good product. I think if he f%cks enough shareholders, he will get exactly what he wanted in the end, no one even cares about us the shareholders. It is always known on Wall Street the perils of investing and the risks of heavy losses. Esp now...when companies are losing billions, excuse me trillions...the Dow now swings up 300, down 300 then back up 200 in a few hours--and that's normal. Who the f%ck cares about shareholders anymore? We're a dying breed.
We know that in and of itself a reverse split is zero sum transaction ( although most stocks go down afterwards ) ......but the dilution factor of an additional 3.5 B shares is the kicker
Someone ( don't remember who ) said the " Dilution is already factored in the current stock price "
THAT is what I am curious about .......is this the "bottom" for our devaluation ???? Or are the .05 predictions accurate
One last scenario I am wondering about ( IB's are very creative ) ......People are jumping ship dirt cheap .....volume was high yesterday ....someone is buying those shares ......are the banks loading up on our shares , they also know that a LOT of people plan to short the new batch of shares ........I am wondering if the plan might be to accumulate all our shares , and then in 2009 Siri becomes the new darling of the analysts , and takes off .........and is .25 PPS the bottom now ......
My gut tells me the plan is to dilute us into oblivion , and make way for the new batch of suckers .......but the second scenario seems to make sense in light of the fact that SOMEONE is buying all the shares being dumped
I bought 21k of Siri at 23 long. I also bought some Microsoft 21.30 but I know no one cares..
My average Siri is lows .50 I bought yesterday at 27 as well. I have a feeling you might say.
217738 - Greed and need eventually brings us all back. jmo
I think you are right. First, this stock has hit rock bottom essentital. What is rock bottom? Here or another .15 lower. At .20, it now matters not. But one thing you can be sure of is all shorts are most likely in exit strategy as we speak--in very orderly fashion, which is why there wil be no stock pop. This is the worst of all scenarios for longs waiting for a last gasp pop--but perfection for Mel and Co.. All that's left now is just a floating dog in the water (IMHO). So besides your theory about the "right" people snapping up shares for later, you have a boatload of shorts sopping up all of the redemption selling because they'v e gotten nearly every drop out of "the dog" certainly not to be confused with "dog w/ fleas"! (lol). Naaa, we got played like a bad stratavarious and now all that's left is for anyone still holding is to see a longer term horizon into next year and just see what happens after the proxy is executed.. It's criminal innature but not provable in court because of the fort knox safe harbor Mel/co has and that the financial crisis where so many stocks have lost value. How can you now separate that Mel has done something illegal--when it's even happened to healthy companies without extreme debt? I stil think MS and GS (Mels partners--ironically, or not, the only IB's left standing) tipped Mel that this was going to happen and so it was no worries, just go for it. Mel nailed this and he will emerge next year looking pretty good. We won't. Teh only thing I'm doing is setting up for the short on thh reverse. All longs going through the "car wash" as it were, should at least hedge on the other side short. That IMO wil be the best way to make your money back next year. Remember Mel said PFCF but he forgot to tell everyone (too loudly) that thats after on going cap ex. Remember he said this:
Karmazin: AND I THINK THAT IS THE FUTURE, OKAY? I THINK THE FACT THAT WE HAVE IDENTIFIED IMMEDIATELY $400 MILLION OF SYNERGY ON VIRTUALLY EVERY LINE ITEM OF THE P&L, SYNERGIES THAT WE ARE VERY, VERY CONFIDENT TO BE ABLE TO DELIVER NET OF THE COST BEFORE 2009. SO WHEN YOU TAKE THAT SYNERGY AND YOU ADD IT TO THE COMBINED COMPANY, YOU GET, FOR THE FIRST TIME, POSITIVE EBITDA. NOW, IN MY OPINION, POSITIVE EBITDA ISN'T THE SAME THING AS MAKING MONEY.SO, WE'LL HAVE $300 MILLION OF EBITDA IN 2009, AND BUT FOR A PAYMENT CONNECTED WITH THE SATELLITE, SIRIUS IS PUTTING UP A NEW SATELLITE IN '09, AND WE HAVE ONE PAYMENT -- BEFORE THAT SATELLITE, WE WILL BE FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE.
This company will not be making any money anytime soon so..plenty of time short the snot out of the otherside. That's my take...
I think my losses are so great right now , gambling the last 4,000 dollars is probably the route I will go .....just because it's not worth locking in a 55,000 dollar loss to save 4,000 now
So looks like I will ride this ship until I reach some sort of destination , or hit the proverbial ice-berg
I would love to sell and re-buy at .10 , but I guarantee if I sell my shares @.25 , the PPS will go to .50 and never look back !!!!!!!! I could make this whole nightmare go away for the rest of you if I would just sell my shares !!!!!!! hahahah ahahahhaha
What I'm saying is a lot of this is two short positions buying and selling to each other at any given time. If this is the bottom and shorts are covering we will see huge volume, but not much of a move unless new investors are moving in or the covering shorts are actually going long. Without any news, I doubt we're seeing that many new investors or shorts going long here. We will probably close at yesterdays levels, and if the market rallies at the end of the day, which may happen, a little higher, say .26 or .27.
and so now the question is how much dilution ............someone said the dilution is " already factored in " at these levels ( .25 at the time )
If so , I am ok with that , and to be honest if I were to lose 50% of my investment ???? Well that sure as heck beats losing 90%
I don't see any way to break even now ( unless I risk a dump at .25 , and get a lucky buyback at .10 ) ....not sure I want to risk that
so here we are , and I will take any gain from here as good news ...
and for starters , no BK is good news to me .....even if just your opinion , and I think it's accurate .....I dont think BK is necessary
right here with ya...I brought some extra meat provisions for the dog in case we're hunkered down, guns drawn, for a while...which looks probable....
Btw...if we're making preditions. I predict today wil will the market record finish of all time. I say down 900+ maybe for the first time cown 1000+ then a sharp down open on Monday, with the classic rebound EOD. Then it's back up for air. This then could actually be the botom for a while. Let's hope! Peace all...
Here is a question that I will put to the board. Why hasn't Michael submitted "Proposals Of Security Holders" under rule 14a-8 to be included in the Preliminary Proxy Statement submitted by the company under rule 14a-6??? I am not a lawyer, but if you or I were involved in ongoing litigation with the company during the merger, during the merger appeal period, and after, wouldn't you follow Proxy Statement Rules and assure that your concerns could be included in a timely filing to the company so that all shareholders would have access to the information when the company files its Proxy Statement.
Rule 14a-8 provides shareholders who disagree, or agree but want other considerations voted on at the annual meeting, a way to have those issues included in the Proxy Statement.
I find that Michael Hartlieb has not exercised and exhausted all avenues in voicing his concerns through existing channels, that under SEC rules, require the company to include or put into writing their reasons for not including his shareholder concerns. You will find that any shareholder could have done this. I think the period for submission of concerns has expired. If I, a layman at best, can research through Google with a few clicks and find this information, certainly a shareholder with legal representation should have known about this.
Read your rights for yourself. Here are some links to get you started.
www.law.uc.edu/CCL/34A...
www.law.uc.edu/CCL/34A...
GREAT POST! That's the point I was making earlier about the Lawers. If they understood SEC rules they would have processed the proxey input parallel with the Civil suit.