Finally Some Good News for Sirius Shareholders 369 comments
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Now that Sirius XM (SIRI) has laid out its cards on the table, I’d like to offer my view. I’m surprised at all the surprise and negativity from these other analysts. I mean, they have to be kidding, right?
On the reverse split issue, allow me to paint myself into a corner and applaud the company. It’s about time they got proactive in defending the stock price! This should have been done years ago. One of the biggest problems for Sirius XM over the past several years is that it has had far too many shares outstanding. Such a large number of shares combined with a sub 5.00 stock price has made manipulation too easy. The number of outstanding shares alone validates its reversal.
Have you seen the stock price lately? Dilution has been factored into it already. Several analyst reports that I have read this quarter have planned on it. They may have expected it in February, but what’s the difference at this point? So go ahead, trade the 35 cent shares for debt, then do a 50 for 1 reverse split. As a shareholder, I’d rather see the company trying to protect my investment rather than sit back and watch it evaporate further.
On the issue of the debt for shares “surprise,” I am just as excited about this as I am about a reverse split. I thought Wall Street analysts were supposed to be smart! I can easily recall Mel Karmazin’s recent statements, that Sirius XM would be very close to being in a position in February to pay off its debt with CASH ON HAND. My thinking is that the 30 million dollars raised will make that Feb 2009 debt retirement completely plausible. This is the single best sign of the future of Sirius XM that I have seen in many years.
The markets want visibility and it plans up to 18 months ahead. The market right now cannot see past February when it comes to satellite radio. Many analysts have speculated about a potential restructuring at that time that could wipe out shareholders. Up until now, the company has been silent. These signs are the first real indication of its intentions to avoid bankruptcy and to reduce its debt. This is not just talk. Who, for instance, would accept 30 million dollars in common stock in exchange for repayable debt if bankruptcy were even a remote possibility? NO ONE!
The only reason to enter into such a deal is the belief that the equity has more value than not only the bond interest, but its principal. That is good news, no matter how you look at it, for shareholders.
Position: Long SIRI
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This article has 369 comments:
Screw the Nasdaq and their rules. At $.35 who cares where we're listed.
NO REVERSE SPLIT! I'VE MADE THE SHORTS RICH ENOUGH!
You are dead wrong!
There are bigger SIRI fish to fry. I would like to see Mel Karmazin step up to a microphone and state his exact plan to manage the debt. I no longer want to hear "We are working on it". There is no downside to making debt refinance plans public. Why is there nothing to dissuade shareholder fears? To be so quiet and aloof smacks of fear and deperation. I don't want to hear about cost savings (Show them to us! A few layoffs aren't too impressive), synergies (Nothing worth noting has been synergized!) and EBITDA (I want to know how much we'll make AFTER ITDA!).
Also, what's this crap mentioned in yesterday's BusinessWeek article ( www.businessweek.com/m... ) about DOUBLING the number of shares? That's kinda new! Anybody know what our shares will be worth if that gets approved? Doesn't mean much if you're holding from the upper ranges, but why continue to hold if you KNOW it's gonna get diluted?
This stock is going nowhere until investors' worries about the outstanding debt is satisfied. Period. They could say they made a buttload of money last quarter, layoff more employees and sell Howard Stern's hair on eBay for all I care. I want this debt paid down or refinanced to something feasibly manageable. Now. And I'm not voting to approve more shares to get there. Do it the old-fashioned way, Mel. Be the CEO. I don't want to be your buddy. Your exemplary past in this business no longer impresses me.
I will be very surprised ( and ecstatic ) if , after a reverse split , the stock does not take another massive dive ........my one or two experiences with a reverse split are that it goes down further after the split , and most people here seem to have the same experience
Glad you can see some light at the end of the tunnel , hope it's not an oncoming train ...........still patiently long and holding , but 3.50 PPS looks like Mt. Everest right now
I understand we investors don't get to know all the workings that go on behind the scenes , but when a stock hits 31 cents , and people are deciding whether or not to bail , I think a few words are in order , IF, he has any optimism to share ....Obviously being quiet gives people the jitters
Not to mention giving him 56 million shares ( obviously he is has lost his A on the shares if he still has them ) ......but still 56M ........I bet howard would have signed on for HALF what Siri is paying for him , just to be free of censorship
Dear Steve Jobs ( AAPL CEO ) ,
Please come manage Siri for us !!!!!!
AAPL has a great quarter , but investors are a little nervous about the climate and future .......Steve immediately gets on the Horn to calm fears !!!! Tells investors AAPL will be fine
HEY MEL !!!!! Where the fuquaru
If you did not receive and email from him entitled "Let's Roll", you can get a copy by sending him an email at; savesirius@gmail.com
I have researched quite a bit of his legal history with Sirius and find him credible.
In this day of corporate malfeasance, I think a case can be made that this management needs to be replaced.
I'm no lawyer...only a guy who believes that corporations work for the shareholders and I cannot see where Sirius mgmt has satisfied that criteria....Koop
Siri Book Value = - .60 ( minus .60 )
As for the analysts, they have nothing to encourage them regarding SIRI so it is easy for them to pan the stock. In this market, at this moment, there is no advantage for them to stick their neck out on a gamble. It may be lopped off in the next round of lay-offs.
There is nothing wrong with the reverse split other than the stigma attached. Imagine what happens to your investment if the stock is de-listed (unless you are still short, that is). Once again, it will be done to raise the stock above the threshold for fund managers to consider and avoid de-listing. I say go for it.
A technical question: If a reverse split occurs, say 20:1 does the actual number of authorized shares drop by the same ratio, meaning does the board still need to have the authorization to issue more shares?
You asked for one, there you go...
So. . . . .
The best that could happen would be
The retiring of debt based on a share disbursement. similar to the.38-.45 scenario for $30M. (Debt is Gone!)
The reverse split of the stock by a 25:1 ratio. Brings the current price to about $7.50 b(based on today's prices). Now available to be traded in
401k accounts)
Now on the table are two elementrs.
1) NO DEBT!!
2) STOCK IS BEING TRADED IN 401Ks. (other than SIRI EMPLOYEE)
FAST FORWARD OCTOBER 2010:
(EVEN BY DEPRESSION STANDARDS THE ECONOMY IS RECOVERING)
Stock is now ranging upwards and a 3:2 or a 5:2 split is being considered.
Gotta go the Flux capacitor is fixed, jreplaced Red Bull for the coffee grounds. Fully caffeinated. . . . . .RUN BLUE DOG RUN
hmmmm
Red Bull & Blue Dog . . . . . could be the start of a great friendship!!
SIRI announces a 3:2 split
Mel and Sirius management have a "perfect storm" here with the garbage economy, car companies in the toilet, stock market crashing and the "Chinese Water Torture" that the FCC and NAB put them (and us) through for the last 18 months. To use a martial metaphor, they are trading ground and lives for time to marshall the reinforcements of an improving debt market, the good news of synergies (I hate that word by now) and a decent Christmas season (hopefully) to attract investors again. THAT will raise the stock price.
Of course a little complaining is understandable as we, the shareholders are bearing the brunt of the bloodletting.
BRK-A, CME, GOOG, BIDU, FFH, & NVR all have volumes of over 50K daily and a price of over $200.
You are right about the silliness of SIRI selling for $240 a share. I suspect that an upper limit will be set by the board to facilitate a price ceiling. The aspect of have a price too low hampers the 401K activity, is similar to a high stock price to the common investor. A split, or a series of splits to keep the price to a resonable to the common investor.
Splits are not one way streets.
Just remember to look both way before you decide to cross one!!
VOTE yes to SHARES followed by
A YES to a REVERSE SPLIT!!
Ho Ho Ho
IM calling the absolute bottom at .01 cent....
How did I arrive at this number....
Well... It cant go lower, unless its out of business. Thats how I got that number. Seems headed to .01. Wouldnt that be funny. They would have to do a 100 to 1 split just to get to 1. LOL LOL LOL
If you can withstand just .26 more possible downticks, then you might as well wait to sell. Not really much point now, thank god i didnt double down like my emotions almost made me do. Cooler heads prevailed.
I am betting on things improving out there and management to earn there money traversing to survive. I am buying into the extreme fear here. There is indeed facts supporting fear. I will be here every month on the 5th. We shall see.
I still do not think that Mel lied at the time the questions were asked. Things have changed since then and he needs to do what he can to maneuver the business through these times. Has anyone taken a look at your portfolio lately? How about the condition of your neighborhood Real Estate? I wouldn't want to have a CEO that was not flexible enough to swallow his pride and do what is necessary to refinance the debt while preserving as much shareholder value as possible. We still haven't heard his plan yet.
1. Looking to screw the shareholder...
2. Or looking to screw someone else.
Im looking for suggestions on the second option.
shares (at a fixed price ) to their subscribers?
or,,, perish the thought, of raising the monthly satellite
subscription to raise the cash to pay the debt off
sooner?
8,644,319 subscribers
10.42 avg rev per sub per month
12 months
$1,080,885,647.76 avg annual revenue
-$104,000,000 1st Qtr net loss
4 quarters
-$416,000,000.00 forecast 2008 annual net loss
-$48.12 loss per subscriber per year
-$4.01 loss per subscriber per month
as a SIRI listener, i would find a 4.01 added cost
for satellite radio a good value compared with
the possibility of listening to commercial radio
again. god save me from that possibility.
Meanwhile people are dropping it like the plague
My question is ....Who's buying it ??????????
Volume is high
Shareholders have a right to transparency and accountability and the CEO and Board of Directors have a fiduciary responsibility to deliver it. They have failed. That is not a matter of conjecture or conspiracy. There are no grassy knolls . . .
The product is good, the business model is good . . . why then has management failed to execute the business plan. Why is management taking "inconsistent actions" as cited in the Janco downgrade?
This compnay is fond of using talking points to communicate to shareholders. The shareholders can communicate to management with their own set of talking points:
1.) Mel Karmazin said the company was fully funded . . .
2.) Mel Karmazin said no further dilution in contradiction to the current proxy
3.) Mel Karmazin said no reverse split in contradiction to the current proxy
4.) Mel Karmazin said with regard to interoperable OEM's that "They [automakers] control the dashboard, so they can decide if they want it or they don’t want it, and if they do want it, you should assume it will probably take about three years for them to integrate it, since that’s the lead time that most of these options take before the car companies are willing to put it into production.” . . . but now says the merger of XM and Sirius hasn’t resulted in a merger of satellite capability. Merging XM and Sirius technology and installing it in new vehicles could take as long as 15 years because of the new chips required and automakers’ lead time.
I could go on but people will stop reading. Nothing conspiratorial in the above. Management is not executing the business plan.
SiriusBuzz Radio will be interviewing Michael Hartleib this evening and will take calls. I have not yet formed an opinion on the "Hartleib Manifesto" but am keeping an open mind . . . some in other forums have branded him a "nut," a "crazy uncle" and a "conspiracy" theorist. I intend to hear him for myself and hope all will do the same. He at least has a platform that has caught management's attention. I will not repeat here Mel's quote about Mr. Hartleib.
By most accounts Mel Karmazin is a decent, honorable and highly charatible man and an erudite business person. What has gone wrong?
Mel, if you are in trouble . . . if certain members of the Board have strayed from the vision of the shareholders, we will offer support to right the ship.
Board of Directors, if Mel has wandered off the reservation and is no longer capable of executing the buisness plan we need to patch up the problem fast and get the plan back on track.
We are at a tipping point . . . keeping it in the clubhouse is not helping shareholders.
The idea that a bankrupcy judge wont hear Sirius's case is troublesome. That is conjecture, and not proveable, nor can I bank that voting no to both proxies would result in that. Mel's comments about taking the company private was said intentionally to get you to sell the stock, no other reason to have said it. The interviewer was probably asked to ask the question.
I dont trust the board, the CEO, or their "numbers" any longer. How can I? Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. So if this vote is a serious consideration, that would be the "twice" and I wont go down quietly.
Motorola.....
Ford....
GM.....
AMD....
All these have terrible business models, huge debt, and none are considering paying for it with stock, or a RS. Why is Sirius?
<savesirius@gmail.c...
I will be sending a number of e-mails to everyone that has contacted me.
First of all, I'd like to remind everyone that Sirius belongs to us - not Mr. Karmazin or the Board of Directors. It is our company.
I ask all of you to please keep that in mind as we continue our fight to stop management from stealing our company from us.
While I and many of you are feeling the pain for the trust we put in Mr. Karmazin and his management, he continues to live large in Trump Tower and is basically rewarded for his failure to deliver any value to his shareholders.
As I've stated before, they will either BK this company and then privatize or dilute and then privatize - either way, any of us that are in at $3, $4 or $5 will never be made whole. As many of you are aware, a fully diluted float of 4.5billion is unbelievable enough but for management to suggest increasing the float to 8billion shares is completely incomprehensible.
I have been fielding so many phone calls, that I've not been able to draft our plan of attack which I urge all of you to make your suggestions and give your input. That said, below I will list a basic outline as well as details of my itinerary and ask all of you that plan to attend the shareholder meeting confirm this with me ASAP as we can book blocks of rooms at a substantial discount. I plan to stay at Milford Plaza - it is no Ritz Carlton or Four Seasons but it has been recently remodeled (as of two months ago) and I believe is one of the better values in the city. Rooms are available with a queen on the dates needed at $224 plus city taxes prior to any block discounts, which I'm told can be quite substantial if we are booking 30-50 rooms. The phone number is 212-869-3600 but I suggest we coordinate so that we can get the block rate and potential upgrades. My flight has been booked. I will be arriving the evening of 12/17 and will be happy to meet with people prior to the shareholder meeting as well as after. I will stay in town until Saturday 12/20 (evening) or longer if necessary so that we may plan our strategies and discuss the upcoming derivative action that will be forthcoming. Time is of the essence as we continue to hit multi-year lows and the shareholder meeting will be here before we know it. The timing of the meeting is definitely a ploy by management to dissuade as many shareholders as possible from attending (as well as the location as Corporate Headquarters cannot hold more than 100 people or so). PLEASE CONFIRM YOUR PLAN TO ATTEND SO THAT WE MAY RESERVE ROOMS.
ACTION PLAN:
> Attending the shareholder meeting is a must
> Should have escrow account open by tomorrow and will provide further details
> I'm working on drafting a derivative action that we may submit to counsel
> I'm working on putting plans together for civil disobedience and protest
> I am setting up a dial-in conference number and dial in code that we can use for weekly conference calls - this call is not a toll free number - there are no extra fees
the call in number is: 1-218-936--7979 Caller Code: 358207
> Contact Market Wire and PR News Wire to run news release on Yahoo at Sirius Stock Quote informing shareholders of forthcoming action against Sirius - each press release approx $300
> If anyone has access or time to try and contact Oppenheimer (sp?) as they own well over 100million shares - probably a waste of time, but worth a try.
> Begin interviewing high profile law firms
I suggest you all contact Ruff Law and ask for Jeffrey P Fink 800-350-6003 or e-mail at: info@ruflaw.com and inform them that you are large shareholders and that you will be holding he and his law firm responsible for the damage shareholders have incurred since this merger was consummated, damages totalling approx 2.5billion dollars as his firm had a fiduciary responsibility to protect the best interest of the Class. The case entitled Greg Brockwell et al v Sirius Satelitte Radio (Index No: 600819-07) was filed to enjoin (ie: stop) this merger at any and all costs as the merger was unlawful at its core because it was based on self-dealing and breach of fiduciary duties. In the 11th hour, Mr. Fink tried to cover his tracks by withdrawing the class action complaint, redrafting said complaint with even more egregious accusations against Mr. Karmazin and management of Sirius Satellite Radio, refiling the amended complaint as an individual action only, and then immediately (the following day) dismissing the case with prejudice. The reason Mr. Fink and his firm did this was to try to mitigate their damages and exposure but amounted to nothing more than fraud against every Sirius Radio shareholder. Because of his action, we were lulled into complacency believing that this action was to protect our interest only to find out that Mr. Fink threw us under the bus and then tried to cover his tracks to prevent being sued by the entire class of shareholders. It will not work; Mr. Fink and his firm are still liable for damages. We were denied our right to a fully informed vote as well as the right to have a judge stop this merger. Mr. Fink and his firm realize the exposure they face, their malpractice insurer has now required them to retain outside counsel from the firm Segwick and Detert, by the name of Greg Halliday (949) 852-8200 or e-mail at: greg.haliday@sdma.com . As I've stated before, there is power in numbers. I will do as much as I can. Your help is much needed and much appreciated. I believe it's time we take our company back before it's too late.
Contact media and express your views and outrage and inform them that we are becoming a well organized group of shareholders that are not going to allow for this blatant and transparent attempt to destroy shareholder value and steal our company from us.
Please share your efforts so that we can all be informed.
-----------------
Vote no to the REV-Split
Vote No to more shares
Give me the CEO job, and I'll start making calls. Should have the money by lunch. Heres my pitch...
Want to invest in these markets? Your crazy. Bonds? No way?
Currencies? Good luck picking one. How about a huge monopoly that is growing that has great cash flow? I think I could get it done.
The more and more I think about this companies actions, the more im convinced they are working for a higher power pulling the strings.
The company is inconsistant and appears to be playing me.
I implore everyone involved to do what we can to get this merger deamed illegal or to remove the board. One or the other. Either remove the merger(sirius stock would go back to $3 a share instantly(no where near the debt, synergies are a joke, and XM goes out of business(if the combined companies cant get good lending, why would XM by itself?)Cos1000, do you see what Im saying here?
Do you see the lie now? XM as a stand alone company? Not possible if you take every word Tyler says as truth, then the reasons why Sirius is in trouble now, would be the exact reasons XM goes under. Then their is no competition, and Sirius stock doesnt need to pay those high contracts when the switch over. Mr. Hartlieb sensed the screwing long before we did, because he held stock and followed this clown management team longer. The radio being surpressed is all the evidence I need.
If only 50 percent of what he says is true, then we all need to join the suit, any suit, or begin more class action suits to scare the SHIT out of management.
How is Apollo voting? Oppenheimer? Why would they vote yes? Were they acquiring shares just to pass this vote? OMG, if thats the case then any good news about share acquisition to this point is the reverse of good news. Geez, the possibilities of manipulation are endless. Why do we speculate to these things? Because of maangements tight mouth for years. They communicate about as good as a 13 year old girl does to her father about sex issues. LOL LOL LOL
I can show you how mathematically 1000000 people can start the day wanting to own Microsoft, and only 10000 people who wanted to sell microsoft on that day, and the SP could reach .01 withink hours.
How? Simple. Buyers want the lower tick. Sellers were flushed out early. Now thats left are naked short shares being handed to buyers are every decreasing prices. If it drops they will buy, if it drops more they will buy. Remember, they want to buy. As it drops, more sellers come in. Etc... Not hard. Just use all the MM's tactics at their disposal, and its not hard. So why argue if any SP is valid? Most arent. Sirius is valid if people are realizing that the company doesnt want them to own this stock. Then is OVERPRICED.
I would love 5 minutes of phone time with him and Tyler.
Good news? Heres similar good news, if thats good news...
GOOD NEWS!!!! I have cancer!!!
GOOD NEWS!!!! Sirius just lost 1 billion dollars!!
GOOD NEWS!!!! Sirius is going to make your investment worth 45% less than its currently valued at. And then take away your biggest weopon(large number of shares)
If that is good news, than you were probably buying WM about 1 year ago. And being absolutely flabergasted why it was falling. They lost money, thats good, issuing shares to pay debt, thats good, defaulting on loans to other banks, good good.....
Hi Olga,
As you know the state of the affairs of SiriusXm are to the point now ridiculous. We are being duped by management.
I am amazed at the sell-off in this stock over the course of many months. I would never have dreamed that the stock would trade today at 27 cents per share or a 1B market cap. I would also add that Goldman Sachs and others (probably hedge funds) are having a field day with the converts and naked short sales. This has been going on (in my opinion) for months and months with no enforcement action taken by the authorities. SIRI is wrongly trading at these low prices and I am quite surprised that Mel Karmazin has not been more pro-active in doing something to stop it.
Now with the upcoming shareholders meeting in December more deception is possibly lurking. Since you seem to understand the clear concept of the share price going down now wait to see what would happen with a reverse split and dilution.
The management is so silent at this point and that is the main concern of the shareholders. You would think Mel would give some news release and at least try to least stablize the share price.
Almost 20 million subs and we are heading down?
Three loans that can be serviced and we heading down?
In five years we could be close to 30 million subs and we are heading down?
The fastest growing company in America last year and we are heading down?
I guess he wants it as low as it will go for the reverse split. What is his story? Really what is Mel trying to accomplish?
We need your help to expose these issues.
Thank you in advance for your consideration to help us bring our issues to light through your efforts.
Thankfully yours,
Frank
Please folks, I did not mean to post his email address.
in the interim . . lets hope that others will respect the guy's privacy
Let me know what I need to do to get you back on and I will immediately.
Very sorry man,
Koop
olga_kharif@businesswe...
On Oct 23 02:13 PM chizzle wrote:
> Who is Olga?
I will make good on it,,, Better than Mel. LOL...
That said, maybe some really bad news would move the price up, since the converse has been true.
I did not know a name existed for Convertible Bond stock manipulation as we are seeing here with Sirius. "Death spiral financing" defines exactly what happened here. But, was Mel in on it? I think he wants to buy Sirius on the cheap. We will see.
Thanks KOOP for that wiki link. Wow this is a very expensive education.
Apart from the frivolous nature of these suits, they ignore the most important premise of corporations: managers manage, shareholders sharehold. If you don't like it, vote against it. Vote against the split. Vote against the increase in shares. Vote out the board. By all means, this is your right. But don't think you can manage a publicly held corporation better than the people the board hired (and yes, you could, in fact, do worse).
Suing a company that is already down is pure stupidity. You won't get your money back, but the plaintiffs lawyer will make hundreds of thousands. This is the sole purpose of these suits. Don't be a sucker (or be a sucker again, depending on your SIRI outlook).
The event chain after the merger is damming for Sirius management. Folks see Mel involved in a stock deception plan to take Sirius on the cheap. On.. and on, we have come the point that an investigation is needed. A class action is a one way to get a full investigation and at the same time recover damages as needed.
We have time. Maybe things will get better. A little info from Mel would help. Sirius IR could start answering the phone again and help allot.
Vote No to the Split
Vote No to more Stock
Don't worry about the guys posting here to vote yes. The Sirius trolls are not a worry and the "in and out day traders" will not be in for voting.
read this about convertible arbitrage.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Koop
On Oct 23 02:34 PM mark2003awol wrote:
> Death spiral financing
>
> I did not know a name existed for Convertible Bond stock manipulation
> as we are seeing here with Sirius. "Death spiral financing" defines
> exactly what happened here. But, was Mel in on it? I think he wants
> to buy Sirius on the cheap. We will see.
>
> Thanks KOOP for that wiki link. Wow this is a very expensive education.
>
>
SiriusXM has a total share count of 3.5B. That "B" means Billion! Do your self and the ambulance chasing sharks a favor and drop the suit. I believe that the list of the major holders that can be accessed from any web based search engine would speak volumes. Just in case your computer skills are lacking, here is a partial list:
APOLLO MANAGEMENT IV, L.P.
OPPENHEIMER FUNDS, INC.
Barclays Global Investors UK Holdings Ltd
VANGUARD GROUP, INC. (THE)
Clearbridge Advisors, LLC
STATE STREET CORPORATION
TIAA-CREF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC
ING INVESTMENTS, LLC
Cypress Funds LLC
MLT Management, LLC
RiverSource Growth Fd
OPPENHEIMER GLOBAL FUND
RiverSource Large Cap Equity Fd
FIDELITY CONTRAFUND INC
JENNISON 20/20 FOCUS FUND
Legg Mason Partners Aggressive Growth Fd
VANGUARD MID-CAP INDEX FUND
OPPENHEIMER CAPITAL APPRECIATION FUND
OPPENHEIMER GLOBAL SECURITIES VARIABLE ACCOUNT
FIDELITY SMALL CAP STOCK FUND
WOW. . . Quite a list of financial minds! I would be interested in finding out if your class includes any of the above. The above list's holdings and insiders comprises 30% of the number of current shares. Further investigation led me to find that the stock is owned by 300 (yes 300) institutions. Is there a single one of these 300 firms interested in the class action suit? The answer is NO. The actions by Mike may be pure in nature, but he is not a financial expert. I also point out that any legal firm taking on such litigation has a very slim chance of having financial experience of this nature. The market has been ROCKED by recent events that have led to the current decline in all stock prices. Do the stock a favor and urge Mike to propose initiatives that protect the current equity and not destroy it with litigation. Poison Pill to restrict takeover, restriction on Excessive Executive Bonuses, and a demand for a published business plan would be better served in moving the price of the stock more in line with it value!
Poison Pill to restrict takeover, restriction on Excessive Executive Bonuses, and a demand for a published business plan would be better served in moving the price of the stock more in line with it value!
But don't exactly agree with your anti class action statments. Don't ever think some very smart lawyers could not take on Sirius. An investigation is in order.
I don't agree that is would be distracting. We would like to foce a little effort that is lacking. I don't see managment doing anything at this time. Lets give them a reason to work. IMO they planned this and we need to stop the takeover.
Vote no to the REV-Split
Vote No to more shares
I'm not saying that I know what their doing but, because I don't, doesn't mean I should file a lawsuit. Currently their running this company, like it or not, we will hear from them before the annual meeting on 3rd quarter results, and 4th qtr progress and projections. Right now its not worth commenting on any of this BS. I can smell the P$#$#SS in the air and its pathetic.
Bring me my gun and the leash....... the dog and I need some fresh air......
You guys think Long Investors will be wiped out if the RS happens....
Vote no to the RS and see what happens to ALL INVESTORS!!!!
HAHA I don't even care what you guys conjure up anymore about
"Oh no RS" "SIRI Will be shorted back to nothing in no time"
Truth is.... THEY WON'T
Who in their right minds would short a company with
NO DEBT
and POSITIVE CASH FLOW
and GROWING SUBSCRIBER RATES
??????
Answer that for me, because....
If they issue stock and get rid of their debt....
Then RS..... The stock will be....
1.) AT A HIGHER MORE APPROPRIATE PRICE
2.) LESS SHARES OUTSTANDING (3.5 billion is a far to great amount for a company this size anyways)
3.) The Company will have breathing room......
Please someone agree with me so i know i'm not the only one that see the light at the end of the tunnel!!!!
----------------------... LONG SIRI ! !!!!!!!!! ----------------------...
AVERAGE DOWN when the shares are diluted..... it will be probably around .05 to .10 a share..... Won't take much to get your average down there.... Then you won't have to make up so much money after the RS..... It's That simple
I know it will be a gut buster to do that... But hey if we all made this bad of a decision now.... and that's a clear and simple way of making it up.... That's what i'm going to do
I appreciate you trying to keep things in perspective. It's easy to jump on a "kill everyone" bandwagon after watching all their money go down the toilet.........I know, I've been on and off most of the wagons that have gone by...
I agree that we need to sit back and wait no matter WHAT is really going on here. The reason,,,I don't think we could do anything about it anyway.
At this point, I think every single scenario that has passed these boards is possible.
THE BEST CASE, Mel really is doing everything in his power to save the company during the WORTS economic time in almost 100 years. Has everyone forgotten that some of America's proudest companies that have been around for more than 100 years have completely disappeared or are in serious danger of it? (Lehman, GM, ...). If the situation really is that bad, we should be applauding a reverse split and dilution instead of BK. GM is in danger of going out of business but we all find NO REASON why SIRI can't get out of trouble tomorrow if they wanted to. WHAT??? I got news for you folks, the job losses in this country are growing by the day and there isn't an end in sight. You all base your value of SIRI on 08 year end 19.5 mil subs and 09 year end 20.5 mil subs and can't understand what's wrong........If this economy is in as bad of shape as it looks, SATRAD will be the LAST thing on anyone's mind and we'll be looking at 09 year end numbers of 17.5 mil subs. You better factor that into your possible scenarios.
WORST CASE,,,pick any one of the wildest conspiracy theories that have come accross these boards and I could believe it. Why? Well, the short story is that I believe that there's a possibility of there being much more to SATRAD than we're talking about.........To be able to instantly spread information, data, video, (much more than music) around the country, North America?, The world? without interruption, and to do it on something as small as a Stiletto........there'... no telling what the future possibilities are with this technology and more importantly WHO knows it. By the way,,,,there is now a MONOPOLY on this technology. I've heard of the government using SIRI for emergency responce. That will be just the beginning, they'll use it for everything.....If the possibilities are that wild, than that would mean we're talking about HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of dollars. If so, there's no telling WHO's driving this ship. It sure wouldn't be Mel...........
SO, either way and everything in between, sit back and watch because if it's the best case, let Mel do his job......If it's the one of the worst case conspiracy theories than you all can sue who ever you want, SIRI is being protected and you'll get no where.
One thing I do now believe for sure. We are NOT in the 9th inning or the 12th round.................... heard Mel himself say that taking over XM was one of the reasons for him coming to SIRI. That was only 4 years ago when XM out numbered SIRI 10 to 1. Now SIRI has TOTAL domination with 19+ mil subs..................... you really think that only 2 months after the completion of the 4+ YEAR takeover plan that we'd all be dancing in the streets rich??????
Mel is right on track with HIS plan. For him,,,,,THIS IS ONLY THE 2nd ROUND....................
Is the "plan" , to compress and dilute us into oblivion ??? Thereby bringing in a fresh round of investors that start at 5.00 PPS , but the equivilant of .05 PPS for us ??????
Looks that way thus far .......however , at this point , I have no doubt ( barring BK ) that I can hold and eventually beat .25 I would sell and re-buy at .10 , but this MIGHT be as low as we go .....There was a lot of volume today .........A lot of selling to be sure , but someone is also buying those shares being sold
At this price you will at least double your money (unless bankruptcy) in the near future.
Jay
But because of the amount of shares they have, it would take alot of funding from another company to do a buyout....
Well This Might Be Sirius, ..........I agree with you. The RS is not a done deal yet though, I'd like to see
1. Feb, 09 debt taken care of without a lot of dilution or convertibles, cash and some bank financing would be nice......
2. Get the stock back to .80 -.90 on the debt news and then a reverse split, 1 for 10, that's about as likely as anything else out there....
3. They then use the additional authorized shares which would be reduced by the RS to 800M from 8B, sell them in blocks throughout the year to institutions, and pay of the rest of the debt for 09.
That means Mel has to address the Feb 09 debt resolution now during 3rd qtr reporting and outline the rest of the plan for shareholder authorization for execution as markets allow in 1st & 2nd Qtr of 2009. Remember having the Feb 09 debt out of the way now will build back shareholder confidence, the reverse spit is necessary to the SP up and outstanding shares down even with the 8 Billion authorization. I don't see any other way to reduce outstanding shares and make Stock Price attractive and allowed for institutional ownership participation.
Now that's the only positive scenario that I can come up with. If during the conference call for 3rd Quarter there isn't this type of plan or one which essentially accomplishes the same thing, I will sell all my shares, before the end of the year, take my losses and listen to anyone who wants to file a class action for Management Stupidity..
I read you guys all with pretty good imput. But, much of what was conspiricy last year is now a reality effecting the enire US. Why would Sirius managment not be conspering to take over the stock? If I had a billion, I would own Sirius and so would any of you.
All I am saying is an investigation is needed. Stock Holders of Sirius must protect the investment from possible evil plans. Self protection is prudent.
IMO, Mel planned and was in on the fall of this stock. We need an investigation! We must not let the RS happen.
Don't be fooled by talk of BK. It will never happen. Mel has 30 ways to hell in funding this debt. The worst case would be renew the bond holders as they are pushing to renew at 3.8 percent. With Bond holders jumping to fund, no court would ever grant chapter 11 protection!
LOL, I just keep posting the same info because the Sirius Goons do the same. So folks, know your not alone.
Vote No to the Split
Vote No to more Stock
I think "THE PLAN" is reverse split and share dilution, no matter HOW we got here.
If Mel is innocent of any wrong doing and he has acted in good faith, than that means we are where we are because he got in WAY over his head and was cought with his pants down in this credit/economy crisis.
If Mel's a crook and we're here as the result of some calculated conspiracy, than using the long holders to pay for all of this was the plan from the beginning.
Either way, here we are, and reverse split with dilution is the only way out.
I don't think there's any POSSIBILITY of BK.................
First of course I commiserate with everyone, including myself, when it comes to the SIRIUS losses incurred. This stock has had a mind of it's own from July 29 until now. Since, it's been like trying to fight Cyborg Arnold. The mere mortal has proven ineffective from stopping this onslaught. .25. It's just nuts. I think today was a critical day in the life of the stock. It must have run into many a stoploss trigger and the sales were on. 103M shares today traded--the funny part is the stock lost .06. That just shows the control MM's have. Someone asked earlier who is buying on the other side. My easy answer is shorts buying back--question is who are they returning those shares to? We'll never know. They are all sneaking out the back door, which was my fear. I'm still waiting for that stupid first short interest report for Oct. See, this is how they keep things from indie investors, then release when it's last weeks news and useless. Anyway, as said, it stood @ 199M as of Sept 25, down from 236M on Sept 10. I suspect it's gone down considerably at least as of today whatever that number is. So who is selling? My take is most of those institutions listed here earlier. I expect the next several days will see very high volume as of today with more loss cutting. I've been doing some research as always and continue to find Mel's/the c0mpany's inconsistencies. I went back to the merger deal, the 10Q and whatever article I can find and the doubts and strangeness abounds. Like this:
Reported:
June 05, 2007
SIRIUS Lands $250 Million Term Loan (SIRI, XMSR)
SIRIUS Satellite Radio Holdings (SIRI-NASDAQ) just received a $250 million term loan from Morgan Stanley. The facility will mature in five and a half years and have covenants substantially similar to those under the Company's existing 9 5/8% Senior Notes. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes. Morgan Stanley is acting as the sole lead arranger and has committed to provide the entire principal amount of the facility, subject to customary closing conditions.
David Frear, EVP and CFO of SIRIUS: "This transaction takes advantage of favorable market conditions and significantly strengthens our balance sheet."
Shares were up 1% for a bit but are now close to flat in after-hours. At $2.85 per share, investors are mostly still underwater since the merger announcement date. This will give the company some extra working capital and a cushion, and now we know who at least one of the creditors will be if the company runs into trouble if the XM Satellite Radio (XMSR-NASDAQ) merger fails. XM has already sold some of the satellite node rights and access essentially as a space-REIT, but it's always possible they'll look at the terms and try to do a copycat financing.
Ahhhh...Morgan Stanley. But wait. Then in SIRI's filing is this:
In June 2007, we entered into a Term Credit Agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions. The Term Credit Agreement provides for a term loan of $250,000, which has been drawn. Interest under the Term Credit Agreement is based, at our option, on (i) adjusted LIBOR plus 2.25% or (ii) the higher of (a) the prime rate and (b) the Federal Funds Effective Rate plus 1/2 of 1.00%, plus 1.25%. LIBOR borrowings may be made for interest periods, at our option, of one, two, three or six months (or, if agreed by all of the lenders, nine or twelve months). The loan amortizes in equal quarterly installments of 0.25% of the initial aggregate principal amount for the first four and a half years, with the balance of the loan thereafter being repaid in four equal quarterly installments. The loan matures on December 20, 2012. The loan is guaranteed by our material wholly owned subsidiaries, including Satellite CD Radio, Inc. (the “Guarantors”). The Term Credit Agreement is secured by a lien on substantially all of our and the Guarantors’ assets, including our four satellites and the shares of the Guarantors. The Term Credit Agreement contains customary affirmative covenants and event of default provisions. The negative covenants contained in the Term Credit Agreement are substantially similar to those contained in the indenture governing our 9 5 / 8 % Senior Notes due 2013.
Hmmmm. What does "we entered into a Term Credit Agreement with a syndicate of financial institutions" mean. The word synydicate = a combination of bankers or capitalists...
Possibilities = 1. erroneous reporting 2. Accurate reporting and SIRI forgot it was only MS 3. MS arranged deal with other players 4. SIRI just not wanting to call out IB as source. However we now know after the fact that MS has it's meathooks in this thing in other places so I guess you decide. Possibly the fact that the stock was flat in afterhours might say plenty. What bothers me is how Frears has the nuts to say "it strengthens our balance sheet." How does taking on 250M in debt strengthen one's balance sheet? I don't get that.
More on the next post...
Exhibit 3.2AMENDMENT TO THEAMENDED AND RESTATED BY-LAWSOFSIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO
INC. Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., a corporation organized and existing
under the laws of the State of Delaware, in accordance with Article IX of its
Amended and Restated By-Laws (the "By-Laws"), hereby inserts Article X of the
By-Laws as follows: ARTICLE XPOST-MERGER ACTIONS "At any time prior to July
28, 2010 (i) any termination or replacement of either the Chief Executive
Officer or Chairman of the Board of Directors as of July 28, 2008 (or such
individual's successor) and (ii) any sale, transfer or other disposition of
assets, rights or properties which are material, individually or in the
aggregate, to the corporation (or the execution of any agreement to take any
such action), shall require the prior approval of a majority of the Independent
Directors (as defined in the NASDAQ MarketPlace Rules) serving on the Board of
Directors." {Remainder of page intentionally left blank}
But their safe harbors are incredible:
"The guidance contained herein are based upon a number of assumptions
and estimates that, while considered reasonable by us when taken as a whole,
are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive
uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond our control. In
addition, the guidance is based upon specific assumptions with respect to
future business conditions, some or all of which will change. The guidance,
like any forecast, is necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected
that the assumptions upon which the guidance is based will not prove to be
valid or will vary from actual results. Actual results will vary from the
guidance and the variations may be material. Consequently, the guidance should
not be regarded as a representation by SIRIUS or any other person that the
synergies, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow will actually be achieved. You
are cautioned not to place undue reliance on this information."
or
"This
communication contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but
are not limited to, statements about the benefits of the business combination
transaction involving Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. and XM Satellite Radio
Holdings Inc., including potential synergies and cost savings and the timing
thereof, future financial and operating results, the combined company's plans,
objectives, expectations and intentions with respect to future operations,
products and services; and other statements identified by words such as
"anticipate," "believe," "plan," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "will,"
"should," "may," or words of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements
are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of SIRIUS' and XM's
management and are inherently subject to significant business, economic and
competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are difficult to
predict and generally beyond the control of SIRIUS and XM. Actual results may
differ materially from the results anticipated in these forward-looking
statements.The following factors, among others, could cause actual results to
differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed
in the forward-looking statement: general business and economic conditions; the
performance of financial markets and interest rates; the ability to obtain
governmental approvals of the transaction on a timely basis; the failure to
realize synergies and cost-savings from the transaction or delay in realization
thereof; the businesses of SIRIUS and XM may not be combined successfully, or
such combination may take longer, be more difficult, time-consuming or costly
to accomplish than expected; and operating costs and business disruption
following the merger, including adverse effects on employee retention and on
our business relationships with third parties, including manufacturers of
radios, retailers, automakers and programming providers. Additional factors
that could cause SIRIUS' and XM's results to differ materially from those
described in the forward-looking statements can be found in SIRIUS' and XM's
Annual Reports on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007, which are
filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") and available at
the SEC's Internet site"
more on the next post so these don't become one long post....
"To fund incremental cash requirements, or as market opportunities arise, we may choose to raise additional funds through the sale of additional debt securities, equity securities or a combination of debt and equity securities. The incurrence of additional indebtedness would result in increased fiscal obligations and could contain restrictive covenants. The sale of additional equity or convertible debt securities may result in dilution to our stockholders. These additional sources of funds may not be available or, if available, may not be available on terms favorable to us. Financings and Capital Requirements
We have historically financed our operations through the sale of debt and equity securities.
Future Liquidity and Capital Resource Requirements
In 2004, we issued $300,000 in aggregate principal amount of our 2 1 / 2 % Convertible Notes due 2009. These notes are convertible, at the option of the holders, into shares of our common stock at a conversion rate of 226.7574 shares of common stock for each $1,000.00 principal amount, or $4.41 per share of common stock. These notes mature in February 2009. If our common stock does not trade above $4.41 per share prior to the maturity of these notes it is not likely that the holders will convert them prior to maturity, and we will have to refinance these notes when they mature in February 2009.
Based upon our current plans, we believe that our cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities, and current availability under our credit facility, will be sufficient to cover our estimated funding needs through cash flow breakeven; the point at which our revenues are sufficient to fund expected operating expenses, capital expenditures, merger related costs, working capital requirements, interest payments and taxes. Our first quarter of positive free cash flow was reached in the fourth quarter of 2006, and we achieved positive free cash flow for the second half of 2007. Our financial projections are based on assumptions, which we believe are reasonable but contain significant uncertainties.
We regularly evaluate our plans and strategy. These evaluations often result in changes to our plans and strategy, some of which may be material and significantly change our cash requirements or cause us to achieve cash flow breakeven at a later date. These changes in our plans or strategy may include: the acquisition of unique or compelling programming; the introduction of new features or services; significant new or enhanced distribution arrangements; investments in infrastructure, such as satellites, equipment or radio spectrum; and acquisitions of third parties that own programming, distribution, infrastructure, assets, or any combination of the foregoing."
So according to this, they can pretty much do whatever the f%ck they want without recrimination. Maybe we will or maybe we won't! And perfectly legally. Mel can be out in public saying "they will do this, or will do that" because he's covered like a comfey blankey right here at home base. I just wsh I would have read some of this stuff closer.
More on my next post...
WHEN: Wednesday, July 30, 2008
WHERE: CNBC's "Squawk on the Street"
Following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with Mel Karmazin, the new CEO of the combined Sirius/XM Satellite Radio.
All references must be sourced to CNBC
CNBC's David Faber: MEL KARMAZIN, THE CEO OF THE NEW COMBINED SIRIUS/XM SATELLITE RADIO. A PLEASURE TO HAVE YOU.
Mel Karmazin: THANKS. GOOD TO BE HERE, DAVID.
Faber: 17 MONTHS AGO, YOU ANNOUNCED PLANS TO GET THESE TWO COMPANIES TOGETHER. YESTERDAY YOU CLOSED THIS DEAL. DID THE LONG PERIOD OF TIME HURT THE PROSPECTS FOR THIS COMBINED COMPANY?
Karmazin: NO. I THINK THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COMBINED COMPANY ARE EXTRAORDINARY. IT CERTAINLY PUT THE COMPANY IN LIMBO FOR FAR TOO LONG. IT CERTAINLY HAD CONFUSION IN THE MARKETPLACE, IN RETAIL PARTICULARLY. AND IT ALSO PUT US ON RADIO SILENCE AS FAR AS TALKING TO INVESTORS. SO, IT TOOK FAR TOO LONG. I'M GLAD IT'S DONE. I LIKE THIS OUTCOME BETTER THAN TAKING THE TIME AND HAVING IT NOT HAPPEN. WE HAD TO DEAL WITH THE CHANGE OF CONTROL IN XM DEBT. SO, IN THE LAST WEEK, IN A VERY UGLY MARKET, WE RAISED $1.250 BILLION. IT WAS UGLY RAISING THE MONEY, BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GOT IT DONE, AND WE RAISED THE LAST PIECE OF THE MONEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AT 7:00, AND WE CLOSED THE MERGER MONDAY NIGHT AT 8:00.
Faber: ON THE POINT OF MONEY, ARE YOU DONE? ARE YOU FULLY FINANCED AT THIS POINT AT SIRIUS XM?
Karmazin: YEAH. ANY LIQUIDITY QUESTION THAT HAD EXISTED ON THE INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES, OBVIOUSLY, ARE NOW PUT TO REST.AND ON THE COMBINED COMPANY, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE A FULLY FUNDED PLAN. YOU KNOW, WE HAVE SOME CONVERTS THAT COME DUE IN 2009, AND WE'RE OPTIMISTIC THAT ON THE SIRIUS SIDE, THAT INVESTORS WILL START TO SEE THE VALUE OF THIS COMBINATION AND WE'LL PRICE THROUGH. IT AND IF FOR ANY REASON WE DON'T, YOU KNOW, WE'LL JUST ROLL THOSE OVER SOME TIME IN 2009 OR FINANCE IT WITH SOMETHING THAT MIGHT BE MORE ATTRACTIVE. BUT YEAH, YOU KNOW, WE FEEL REALLY GOOD ABOUT OUR LIQUIDITY.
Karmazin: DAVID, I THINK THE FIRST THING TO LOOK AT IS IF YOU JUST LOOK AT THE TRAILING 12 MONTHS REVENUE OF THE COMBINED COMPANY, WE HAVE $2.2 BILLION. THAT'S PROBABLY A NUMBER GREATER THAN MOST PEOPLE THINK ABOUT WHEN THEY THINK ABOUT SATELLITE RADIO. THAT MAKES US THE SECOND LARGEST RADIO COMPANY IN THE UNITED STATES. ONLY CLEAR CHANNEL WILL HAVE HIGHER REVENUE, AND THEIR GROWTH -- THERE IS NO GROWTH, AND WE'RE GROWING DRAMATICALLY. WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THE NUMBER OF SUBSCRIBERS -- OVER 19 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS -- THAT MAKES US SECOND TO COMCAST IN THE SUBSCRIPTION BUSINESS, MORE THAN DIRECTV, ECOSTAR --
Faber: ALL IMPRESSIVE MEL--
Karmazin: AND NOW THE SYNERGIES.
Faber: -- BUT LET'S TALK ABOUT THE FUTURE HERE.
Karmazin: AND I THINK THAT IS THE FUTURE, OKAY? I THINK THE FACT THAT WE HAVE IDENTIFIED IMMEDIATELY $400 MILLION OF SYNERGY ON VIRTUALLY EVERY LINE ITEM OF THE P&L, SYNERGIES THAT WE ARE VERY, VERY CONFIDENT TO BE ABLE TO DELIVER NET OF THE COST BEFORE 2009. SO WHEN YOU TAKE THAT SYNERGY AND YOU ADD IT TO THE COMBINED COMPANY, YOU GET, FOR THE FIRST TIME, POSITIVE EBITDA. NOW, IN MY OPINION, POSITIVE EBITDA ISN'T THE SAME THING AS MAKING MONEY.SO, WE'LL HAVE $300 MILLION OF EBITDA IN 2009, AND BUT FOR A PAYMENT CONNECTED WITH THE SATELLITE, SIRIUS IS PUTTING UP A NEW SATELLITE IN '09, AND WE HAVE ONE PAYMENT -- BEFORE THAT SATELLITE, WE WILL BE FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE.
Faber: OH, MY GOD, FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE. YOU KNOW HOW MANY TIMES I'VE BEEN ASKING YOU THIS QUESTION, WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO BE FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE? SO ARE YOU ANSWERING IT OR NOT?
Karmazin: I'M ABSOLUTELY ANSWERING IT, AND WE WOULD HAVE BEEN FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE AT SIRIUS, FOR SURE. IT WOULD HAVE TAKEN US LONGER, BUT ONCE THAT PAYMENT IS DONE IN '09, YOU SHOULD THINK ABOUT SIRIUS AND YOU SHOULD THINK ABOUT VALUING SIRIUS. YOU KNOW, WE CAN TALK ABOUT WHAT THE COMPANY COULD BE WORTH OR ISN'T WORTH, BUT WHEN YOU'RE GOING TO VALUE OUR COMPANY, YOU'RE GOING TO VALUE US ON FREE CASH FLOW, BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT WE'RE RUNNING THE COMPANY FOR. AND THIS COMPANY COMBINED IS A COMPANY THAT WOULD GENERATE A LOT OF FREE CASH FLOW, AND THAT FREE CASH FLOW IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO GROW.
Faber: LET'S TALK ABOUT THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. OBVIOUSLY, CAR SALES VERY IMPORTANT, BECAUSE YOU COME INSTALLED IN SO MANY MODELS. THEY'RE DOWN SHARPLY. IS THAT GOING TO HURT YOU? AND WHAT ABOUT CHURN, GIVEN TOUGH ECONOMIC TIMES, ARE YOU SEEING AN INCREASE IN PEOPLE WHO SAY AFTER THE THREE MONTHS FREE, I'M NOT INTERESTED?
Faber: SO, YOU'RE NOT SEEING ANY HEAD WINDS FROM THE TOUGH ECONOMY, PEOPLE SAYING, YOU KNOW WHAT, IT'S $12 A MONTH, IT'S A GOOD SERVICE, BUT I DON'T NEED TO PAY IT?
Karmazin: YEAH, IF YOU SPEND TIME IN YOUR CAR, THE 43 CENTS A DAY -- WE'RE NOT SEEING ANYTHING. IT'S A LOGICAL QUESTION, IT'S SOMETHING WE'RE WATCHING.BUT IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE FACT THAT IF DETROIT SLOWED DOWN FROM 16 MILLION TO CALL IT 14 MILLION, AND OUR PENETRATION RATE IS IN 50% OF THE CARS, AND OUR CONVERSION RATE IS ABOUT 50%, THEN WE'RE ADDING 3.5 MILLION NEW SUBSCRIBERS A YEAR AT ROUGHLY $120. SO, WE'RE ADDING $400 MILLION TO $500 MILLION A YEAR JUST IF DETROIT SELLS, YOU KNOW, 14 MILLION CARS.
Faber: RIGHT. I'VE GOT LESS THAN 30 SECONDS. THE STOCK PRICES IS VERY LOW --
Karmazin: IT SUCKS.
Faber: IT'S A VERY LOW PRICE. FORGET MARKET CAP. ARE YOU GOING TO DO A REVERSE SPLIT? IT'S EMBARRASSING TO LOOK AT SOMETHING WITH A ONE IN FRONT OF IT.
Karmazin: WELL, IT'S EMBARRASSING, AND I HOPE WE WON'T HAVE TO LOOK AT SOMETHING WITH A ONE IN FRONT OF IT FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME.
Faber: COULD YOU CONSIDER A REVERSE SPLIT JUST TO GET THE STOCK PRICE UP THERE? SOME PEOPLE CAN'T EVEN BUY THAT KIND OF A STOCK.
Karmazin: YOU KNOW, WE CAN CONSIDER ANYTHING, BUT THERE'S NOBODY THAT I FOUND THAT THEY REALLY CAN'T BUY IT. IF SOMEBODY REALLY WANTS TO OWN THIS STOCK and they WANT TO HAVE A GROWTH, THEY CAN BUY IT AT THIS PRICE. IT'S MECHANICS. IT'S A SPLIT, AND I JUST THINK THAT WALL STREET'S SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW WHAT THE VALUE IS.
Faber: WELL, 17 MONTHS, BUT YOU LOOK PRETTY GOOD. I'VE GOT TO SAY, MAN. I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU'VE BEEN DOING --
Karmazin: I'VE BEEN ON A HUNGER STRIKE UNTIL I GOT THIS DEAL DONE.
Faber: MEL KARMAZIN, THANK YOU SO MUCH. THE CEO OF THE NEW COMBINED SIRIUS XM.
More on the next post...
I LIKE THIS OUTCOME BETTER THAN TAKING THE TIME AND HAVING IT NOT HAPPEN. WE HAD TO DEAL WITH THE CHANGE OF CONTROL IN XM DEBT. SO, IN THE LAST WEEK, IN A VERY UGLY MARKET, WE RAISED $1.250 BILLION. IT WAS UGLY RAISING THE MONEY, BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GOT IT DONE, AND WE RAISED THE LAST PIECE OF THE MONEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AT 7:00, AND WE CLOSED THE MERGER MONDAY NIGHT AT 8:00.
One still has to wonder what the f%ck they were doing raising 1.250B, and "raised the last piece of the money" an hour before closing the merger...WHEN...you had 1.5 years to be ready and sure you could actually afford this. Sirius Satellite Radio mortgaged the snot out of it's shareholders. Many other articles state that XM was on the verge of BK. I still would like the answer to this financing deal. What we're led to believe is no financing is in place until one week before closing. Why? Doesn't make any sense. Needs explanation. Unlless they were trying like f%ck to get banks but waited until the last minute to go to MS, et al, as if Mel was playing chicken with the banks. Then If XM was on the verge of BK, why not wait until they filed and pick up the pieces like the subs in BK court? Personally I think the reason for that is because it would have tied those subs up for maybe a year and SIRI needed those subs NOW. RIGHT NOW. So they did the deal with the devil to do it and sold out the shareholder.
More on the next post....
I'm still here....
more on my next post...
A: Among other things, includng having to pay an extra 25M deal fee, they are prohibited to raising their fees for 3 years as a stipulation of the merger.
I've been doing some thinking like all of you have as to what might be the realized fate of SIRI XM. I keep thinking about Mel constantly saying he needs time. I keep looking at the stock price over the past 3-4 years since Mel joined and see how it has just crashed--and with it, all shareholder value as we all know way too well. Then I look at the statements they made in the merger and 10Q. Then what Mel said to Faber about "rolling over" the Feb '09, then the short on the common NO ONE BUT CRAMER WANTS TO TALK ABOUT, then finally the Proxy and I can only come to one conclusion. Mel has already foretold what will happen here. Keep in mind to he can not be oustered until 2010 and that can ONLY be by board majority so the whole board would have to be oustered now to get to Mel. But what I see that he is doing is pretending this set of shareholders mean nothing. He is only looking at next year and the year after. And to get there, the only way to do that is through the massive common issue to cover the debt, talent, and who knows what else. People like Howard. Oppenhemer, etc.. wil be reimbursed with new shares to make them whole. And the reverse is just to make the company look respectable again/give the new short hedge a place to go. This stock has 0 chance of becoming respectable on its own. It is done. All current shareholders will be able to do from here is go through it and hope the company turns around in better economics. Talk about tainted. This common is tainted and will never recover and Mel knows it. He needs to execute the proxy, reverse, change the ticker and basically start over and hope people eventually calm down and forget. That's this company's only chance. There has been way too much negative sh%t written and conjectured about this iteration. The tragedy in all of this is us. The shareholders he pretends to care about. He cares about the company not us and will sacrifice us to get what he wants.
We have talked here about Mel's legacy. That this was his make or break. This is a true statement, but we were wrong about US. He needs at least 3 more years to make this company any kind of profitable and that's all he cares about. That's how he is going to exit this industry. He's what 66? He is going to stick with this, then he's going to retire a hero in business. He'll be known as the guy who MADE satellite radio. Again, at the expense of the sharehlolder. He doesn't care about shareholders, he's ruthless. All he cares about is winning--at any cost. I no longer believe BK will be a reality. I do believe the shares and the reverse will be approved. I feel like they have that figured out already. Then they will have al the shares they need to make this one or that one whole. Not us though. We get f%cked and there is 99% chance there is nothing anyone will be able to do about it. They are safe harbored to the hilt like a castle or a fleet of armored tanks. This tickers stock price at meeting time will be anywhere between .05 - .20. That will be Mel's argument for the reverse and the whole process will start all over again. All, just as planned. Then the new short will be on after the reverse and he'll have about two years to make this thing happen--which is exactly what he's done since he go here in Nov of '04. And we'll just have to see how it goes. It's a good product. I think if he f%cks enough shareholders, he will get exactly what he wanted in the end, no one even cares about us the shareholders. It is always known on Wall Street the perils of investing and the risks of heavy losses. Esp now...when companies are losing billions, excuse me trillions...the Dow now swings up 300, down 300 then back up 200 in a few hours--and that's normal. Who the f%ck cares about shareholders anymore? We're a dying breed.
We know that in and of itself a reverse split is zero sum transaction ( although most stocks go down afterwards ) ......but the dilution factor of an additional 3.5 B shares is the kicker
Someone ( don't remember who ) said the " Dilution is already factored in the current stock price "
THAT is what I am curious about .......is this the "bottom" for our devaluation ???? Or are the .05 predictions accurate
One last scenario I am wondering about ( IB's are very creative ) ......People are jumping ship dirt cheap .....volume was high yesterday ....someone is buying those shares ......are the banks loading up on our shares , they also know that a LOT of people plan to short the new batch of shares ........I am wondering if the plan might be to accumulate all our shares , and then in 2009 Siri becomes the new darling of the analysts , and takes off .........and is .25 PPS the bottom now ......
My gut tells me the plan is to dilute us into oblivion , and make way for the new batch of suckers .......but the second scenario seems to make sense in light of the fact that SOMEONE is buying all the shares being dumped
I bought 21k of Siri at 23 long. I also bought some Microsoft 21.30 but I know no one cares..
My average Siri is lows .50 I bought yesterday at 27 as well. I have a feeling you might say.
217738 - Greed and need eventually brings us all back. jmo
I think you are right. First, this stock has hit rock bottom essentital. What is rock bottom? Here or another .15 lower. At .20, it now matters not. But one thing you can be sure of is all shorts are most likely in exit strategy as we speak--in very orderly fashion, which is why there wil be no stock pop. This is the worst of all scenarios for longs waiting for a last gasp pop--but perfection for Mel and Co.. All that's left now is just a floating dog in the water (IMHO). So besides your theory about the "right" people snapping up shares for later, you have a boatload of shorts sopping up all of the redemption selling because they'v e gotten nearly every drop out of "the dog" certainly not to be confused with "dog w/ fleas"! (lol). Naaa, we got played like a bad stratavarious and now all that's left is for anyone still holding is to see a longer term horizon into next year and just see what happens after the proxy is executed.. It's criminal innature but not provable in court because of the fort knox safe harbor Mel/co has and that the financial crisis where so many stocks have lost value. How can you now separate that Mel has done something illegal--when it's even happened to healthy companies without extreme debt? I stil think MS and GS (Mels partners--ironically, or not, the only IB's left standing) tipped Mel that this was going to happen and so it was no worries, just go for it. Mel nailed this and he will emerge next year looking pretty good. We won't. Teh only thing I'm doing is setting up for the short on thh reverse. All longs going through the "car wash" as it were, should at least hedge on the other side short. That IMO wil be the best way to make your money back next year. Remember Mel said PFCF but he forgot to tell everyone (too loudly) that thats after on going cap ex. Remember he said this:
Karmazin: AND I THINK THAT IS THE FUTURE, OKAY? I THINK THE FACT THAT WE HAVE IDENTIFIED IMMEDIATELY $400 MILLION OF SYNERGY ON VIRTUALLY EVERY LINE ITEM OF THE P&L, SYNERGIES THAT WE ARE VERY, VERY CONFIDENT TO BE ABLE TO DELIVER NET OF THE COST BEFORE 2009. SO WHEN YOU TAKE THAT SYNERGY AND YOU ADD IT TO THE COMBINED COMPANY, YOU GET, FOR THE FIRST TIME, POSITIVE EBITDA. NOW, IN MY OPINION, POSITIVE EBITDA ISN'T THE SAME THING AS MAKING MONEY.SO, WE'LL HAVE $300 MILLION OF EBITDA IN 2009, AND BUT FOR A PAYMENT CONNECTED WITH THE SATELLITE, SIRIUS IS PUTTING UP A NEW SATELLITE IN '09, AND WE HAVE ONE PAYMENT -- BEFORE THAT SATELLITE, WE WILL BE FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE.
This company will not be making any money anytime soon so..plenty of time short the snot out of the otherside. That's my take...
I think my losses are so great right now , gambling the last 4,000 dollars is probably the route I will go .....just because it's not worth locking in a 55,000 dollar loss to save 4,000 now
So looks like I will ride this ship until I reach some sort of destination , or hit the proverbial ice-berg
I would love to sell and re-buy at .10 , but I guarantee if I sell my shares @.25 , the PPS will go to .50 and never look back !!!!!!!! I could make this whole nightmare go away for the rest of you if I would just sell my shares !!!!!!! hahahah ahahahhaha
What I'm saying is a lot of this is two short positions buying and selling to each other at any given time. If this is the bottom and shorts are covering we will see huge volume, but not much of a move unless new investors are moving in or the covering shorts are actually going long. Without any news, I doubt we're seeing that many new investors or shorts going long here. We will probably close at yesterdays levels, and if the market rallies at the end of the day, which may happen, a little higher, say .26 or .27.
and so now the question is how much dilution ............someone said the dilution is " already factored in " at these levels ( .25 at the time )
If so , I am ok with that , and to be honest if I were to lose 50% of my investment ???? Well that sure as heck beats losing 90%
I don't see any way to break even now ( unless I risk a dump at .25 , and get a lucky buyback at .10 ) ....not sure I want to risk that
so here we are , and I will take any gain from here as good news ...
and for starters , no BK is good news to me .....even if just your opinion , and I think it's accurate .....I dont think BK is necessary
right here with ya...I brought some extra meat provisions for the dog in case we're hunkered down, guns drawn, for a while...which looks probable....
Btw...if we're making preditions. I predict today wil will the market record finish of all time. I say down 900+ maybe for the first time cown 1000+ then a sharp down open on Monday, with the classic rebound EOD. Then it's back up for air. This then could actually be the botom for a while. Let's hope! Peace all...
Here is a question that I will put to the board. Why hasn't Michael submitted "Proposals Of Security Holders" under rule 14a-8 to be included in the Preliminary Proxy Statement submitted by the company under rule 14a-6??? I am not a lawyer, but if you or I were involved in ongoing litigation with the company during the merger, during the merger appeal period, and after, wouldn't you follow Proxy Statement Rules and assure that your concerns could be included in a timely filing to the company so that all shareholders would have access to the information when the company files its Proxy Statement.
Rule 14a-8 provides shareholders who disagree, or agree but want other considerations voted on at the annual meeting, a way to have those issues included in the Proxy Statement.
I find that Michael Hartlieb has not exercised and exhausted all avenues in voicing his concerns through existing channels, that under SEC rules, require the company to include or put into writing their reasons for not including his shareholder concerns. You will find that any shareholder could have done this. I think the period for submission of concerns has expired. If I, a layman at best, can research through Google with a few clicks and find this information, certainly a shareholder with legal representation should have known about this.
Read your rights for yourself. Here are some links to get you started.
www.law.uc.edu/CCL/34A...
www.law.uc.edu/CCL/34A...
GREAT POST! That's the point I was making earlier about the Lawers. If they understood SEC rules they would have processed the proxey input parallel with the Civil suit.
I have owned stocks like ARiBA that came back from the brink when many thought all was lost and just hope and prayed they would get any return - it is all not lost if Sirius survives. Some of those I owned were vapor ware firms compared to Sirius.
I know the issues... Maybe 3 of us of 8 own it long at this point for those reasons. If current conditions do not improve it will be next to impossible to get financing.
Others I know will buy only on the strength/news of financing in place.
I am for the RS. Very rare but I am 2 for 2 when that has happened.
Finding manufacturing partners is paramount imo
Sidenote questions: How much of Sirius XM future success rests on keeping Howard Stern. (Would financing be more likely if he was on board for another 5) Can the company afford to lose him. (Or keep him.)
Wrote this 45 min ago and lost connection at airport
I was amazed, and quite frankly disappointed in myself for not doing the research sooner, to find that there is a clear process for shareholder concerns to be entered into the Preliminary Proxy Statement, and then voted on if included at the annual meeting. If the concerns meet the inclusion criteria and are not included then there is grounds for further action. You were right yesterday to question the legal advice being given to Michael. This is not the kind of decision making I want leading the charge on my behalf.
mffais.com and type SIRI will give you details of who is buying or selling, how much and when did they do it
These are different institutions, some one must know something, other wise why wasting their FUND money
CNN MONEY as of today 1.6 billion SIRI XM shares are held by institutions
money.cnn.com/quote/ma...
Look at Mel Karmazin's words and compare them to his actions:
No reverse split
No further dilution
Fully funded
3 Years for interoperable OEM (now says 15 years)
If you have questions about Michael Hartleib's motives it is easy enough to contact him directly for his reply. Unlike SiriusXM management . . . Michael Hartleib will reply. Consider it a furtherance of the broader fact-finding mission. He will speak to you openly without the expectation of a committment. Rather than branding him a "nut," "crazy uncle," "whiner" or "scorned investor" wouldn't it be prudent to find out for yourself if he really is a "radical" . . . some who have offered an opinion after actually speaking to him believe his actions have been visionary.
You can email him at savesirius@gmail.com and he will call you back on his own dime. Author Tyler Savery at SiriusBuzz.com has been fairly balanced in his appraisal of Mr. Hartleib's actions. You may wish to review Mr. Savery's comments in an on-going thread at that site. You can also listen to a replay of Mr. Savery's 30 minute interview with Mr. Hartleib as well as a subsequent 30 minute "Tyler's Take" as well as a 60 minute call-in interview program which aired last night.
Moreover . . . do you really think that Michael Hartleib will be the only one pursuing litigation against this company? At present, Mr. Hartleib has simply staked-out the most visible platform . . . many other actions are pending filing.
Too bad SiriusXm couldn't have put the PR dollars into post-merger advertising . . . to at least let the reatilers know what they are selling . . . and consumers what they are buying.
btw, ask Mel to unseal his "Brockwell" deposition.
Perhaps that would allow us to dispense with the distracting conspiracy theories and focus on management's inconsistent actions (see Janco downgrade), duplicitous statements, ineffectual leadership, failure to execute the business plan, failure to defend share price, failure to uphold its fiduciary responsibilities to shareholders, failure to secure responsible financing after a 17 month FCC hearing and a complete failure to communicate with shareholders except through a series of carefully crafted and ineptly delivered talking points.
You may also wish to ask the company you have invested in who exactly is running the day-to-day operations. Why did XM employees in DC only learn of their imminent terminations by accidently logging on to the company payroll software? Why are company officials unresponsive to alleged sweatshop conditions at the North Korean facility that manufactures company products?
Is this the kind of management that deserves a vote of confidence?
Does a CEO who calls investors in his own company "unsophisticated" continue to deserve a vote of confidence from the shareholders?
I inivite sl62 to repost his previously presented "Activities Timeline" within this thread for further review and consideration . . .
Thanks for all your work. I think your right on.
I have one concern with your plans though.............
I think the "short play" on the other side could be a trap.
Let's say that by February, everything is done. There's been a 40 to 1 reverse split AFTER the dilution. So, 8 Billion shares are now 200 Million shares at $5.00 per share (Which would be $1b market cap).
So now, we all expect the shorts to dive back in.........
But wait, we all know that the markets price 12 to 18 months out. What will SIRI look like 12 to 18 months from February????
The $1b+ of 09' debt will be eliminated, all the retail ads for SIRI are pumping (they're not now so the sp will stay low so this deal goes thru) 4Q numbers are in line and 1Q are better than expected.............
What is there to short????
Mel said in that lame Cramer interview that he would get the shorts,,,,,,,,,maybe those 09 shorts are the ones he talking about.
2 side notes,,,,,,
1. That SIRIUS BUZZ show last night with Tyler was the stupidest thing I've ever heard. I can't beilieve I wasted my time. No wonder we're looked at as "unsophisticated" investors. In the chat box were a bunch of retards fighting about who was getting F ed and blown by the other one's mother and on and on. The callers sounded like guests on the Springer show. These boards are 10 no 100 times more constructive than that waste of time. I'm embarrassed to consider myself part of a group who shares interest with that crap. I hope no one important EVER hears that show. We'll look more foolish than we already do.
2. I agree with you sl62, Hartleib and anyone else who feels compelled to can sue SIRI, Mel, and anyone else you want. They've got all their ducks in a row with an army for a defense. No one is going to get close to them.
Soooo - At todays PPS of 25 cents apprx , we would be looking at a bottom of around 12.5 cents PPS after dilution = 5.00 after RS
You just might have a pretty solid theory there
While I agree with most of your accessment I don't agree that Mel and company is 100% protected.
Personally I had to go up against a very wealthy company for an injustice and it took quite some time but in the end it got settled in my favor.
Point being...Key Lay probably thought he was protected too. Might be too soon to write of Hartlieb altogether.
Koop
On Oct 24 01:19 PM siriusly depressed wrote:
> sl62,
>
> Thanks for all your work. I think your right on.
>
> I have one concern with your plans though.............
>
> I think the "short play" on the other side could be a trap.
>
> Let's say that by February, everything is done. There's been a 40
> to 1 reverse split AFTER the dilution. So, 8 Billion shares are now
> 200 Million shares at $5.00 per share (Which would be $1b market
> cap).
>
> So now, we all expect the shorts to dive back in.........
>
> But wait, we all know that the markets price 12 to 18 months out.
> What will SIRI look like 12 to 18 months from February????
>
> The $1b+ of 09' debt will be eliminated, all the retail ads for SIRI
> are pumping (they're not now so the sp will stay low so this deal
> goes thru) 4Q numbers are in line and 1Q are better than expected.............
>
>
> What is there to short????
>
> Mel said in that lame Cramer interview that he would get the shorts,,,,,,,,,maybe
> those 09 shorts are the ones he talking about.
>
> 2 side notes,,,,,,
>
> 1. That SIRIUS BUZZ show last night with Tyler was the stupidest
> thing I've ever heard. I can't beilieve I wasted my time. No wonder
> we're looked at as "unsophisticated&.... investors. In the chat box
> were a bunch of retards fighting about who was getting F ed and blown
> by the other one's mother and on and on. The callers sounded like
> guests on the Springer show. These boards are 10 no 100 times more
> constructive than that waste of time. I'm embarrassed to consider
> myself part of a group who shares interest with that crap. I hope
> no one important EVER hears that show. We'll look more foolish than
> we already do.
>
> 2. I agree with you sl62, Hartleib and anyone else who feels compelled
> to can sue SIRI, Mel, and anyone else you want. They've got all their
> ducks in a row with an army for a defense. No one is going to get
> close to them.
After months of reading these posts I am still amused. One would think Sirius was taking propaganda lessons from Bush and employing many people to post garbage up talk, double speak, fear, and smear. The true investors here must read between the lines, and know your not alone.
Things look bad for Sirius. Maybe it was a plan to take out the first set of investors. Maybe it is a plan to snatch Sirus up on the cheap and go private. Maybe Mel is letting it go down to buy back stock from the shorts and then turn it around. What ever maybe, one thing is clear. Management is screwing the long and truly loyal stock holders with this reverse split. The rev-split is wrong.
A RevSplit does not serve any good purpose. It does not raise money for the debt. It does not look good for the stock. It is not needed to stay listed on the NAS because the rule is suspended and it can be delayed for months. It does not prevent shorts from shorting it back below a dollar again. Just a little good news would send Sirius over the buck faster and stronger without the rev-split. The Rev-Stock-Split is just plain wrong.
Sirius has 30 ways to raise money without the additional shares and a split. Selling share is just the easy way out and the best way to perform a takeover. Many people believe this was planned by Mel. Many more people think management has failed. Both could be correct. Sirius IR no longer answers the phone or return calls so we can’t even beg for more information. However, when the debt gets financed no rev-split will be needed and the price will shoot up.
Get it financed and off the share holders back so the stock can rise again. But Mel, Management is not having any. They had and are working the original plan to steal from stock holders. Mel did this exact same thing before and even took that company private for a few years. Mel is doing it again to Sirus and we are paying the bill. The word is out now and a revolt as started.
Don’t be fooled by talk of Bankruptcy. No Court will grant Chapter 11 protection to a company when the bond holders are chomping at the bit to renew for better term. No, we don’t want 3.8 % prevent convertible bonds used again to short. But, Sirius can NOT go BK with bond holders preventing it. Mel has many ways to finance this debt. He is using your money because it is his cheapest option. We must stop him!
We do not want class action distracting this already poorly performing management. However, once a rev-split is issued, the masses will be in many Class Actions Suits to attempt to collect damages. Lawyers are going to be flocking to the masses and making millions in court against Mel, Sirius.
Do not believe for one minute that Mel and Sirius is protected by iron clad agreements. So many legal tactics exist even lawyers choke attempting to digest them all. Usually the only tactic needed is an aggressively long nuisance that cost Sirus much more to continue than to settle.
Comment about lawyer advice and petitioning in the proxy vote. Layers will not be inside, get inside, be involved, be at the vote, be on the proxy. Layers want the client out of the loop and no longer involved. The lawyer plays on one filed, the court. The layer does not want to defend in a court for his actions in some proxy. The lawyer fights only in the court.
I urge all heavy longs to vote against the Reverse Split. Vote against the additional shares. This is the only way to force Mel to get the financing done properly and save our investment. It is the only way to stop class action law suits from bogging down the works.
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
But the bottom line is IT NEEDS TO BE DONE NOWWWWWWW. NOT WAIT TO THE LAST MINUTE. YOU CAN'T GET FINANCING AT THE LAST MINUTE. ACT NOW MEL, PLEASE!!!!!!!!
My dad's sage advise comes to play when the house is being robbed, shoot first and ask questions later.
Mel needs to quit dreaming and get to action. Sell the shares at .25 (before they go down further) and get the cash to pay this off NOW, GD.
Yea, the more I'm thinking about it the more I feel like I'm coming up with a plan for myself,,,,,,,,
It could be 50 to 1 who knows, either way I think those numbers are close, at the share price below 30 cents any split under 40 to 1 wouldn't work.
Given that, I also believe 25 cents is the bottom (maybe not the bottom, but the lowest dilution price). The reason is because any price below .25 would not allow the dilution and reverse split AND then allow the ending share price to be worth anything. (at .20, the ending share price would end up just over $4.00 after a 50 to 1 split, that's not high enough)
And the only reason I think that theory is worth anything is because I am now making ALL my decissions based of the idea that SIRI WILL NOT file for BK (until something comes along that showes me different).
SOMEONE or EVERYONE, is behind the manipulation and they know it's not going to BK too........At this point it doesn't matter to me who. So, SOMEONE or EVERYONE is playing out an agenda, and I now believe that agenda is to carry out the plan we've outlined............Fe... 2009, no 2009 debt, 200m shares @ $5.00 per share (after 40 to 1 split) = $1B market cap (or close to those numbers), growing business, new products, synergies realized, profit in sight, all the good things come out that are being hidden from us now.........and away it goes.
So, If I really believe all of that, than I believe that by the middle of next year, after SIRI shows a Q1 and/or Q2 that meets or even BEATS expectations, than it will be obvious that SIRI WILL be cash flow positive by the end of next year.
SO, if that's the case, let's say in JULY of 09 SIRI can show it will be fully cash flow positive in the range of $500 mil for 2010. Which I believe is possible because I believe SIRI will go WAY over 22mil subs by the end of 2009 given we don't go into an all out depression. I believe that because I, along with everyone else, believe MEL has been low balling. The problem is, he's been low balling US...Anyway, so then, in JULY of 09, the market could price SIRI at 10 times 2010 earnings which would give SIRI a $5 billion cap. Divide that out by shares after dilution and split how ever you like, but I see the worst case at around 160 mil shares (50 to 1 split) at $31.25 per.
Here today to us longs who are getting the shaft, that would be a $5 bil cap divided by 8 bil shares or .62 per share.
I think these are the worst case numbers but they include the largest unknown factor,,,,,,, will the economy stop SIRI from getting and holding subs???
Cos, Relmer, sl62
Please tear apart my theory and stop me from buying more........
Obama avoids PA Fed court. Obama may not actually be eligible to be president under Constitutional law. Some guy wants Obama to produce a real Birth Certificate and all his citizenship records. DNC and Obama are using legal tactics to delay. Obama posted something on the internet that is said to be a forgery. Obama is not arguing privacy. He is just delaying the request for discovery past the election. A fast read of the case and things don’t look good for Obama. All Obama needs to do is produce a certified Hawaiian Birth Certified. Maybe something is truly wrong because he has refused.
dockets.justia.com/doc.../
I sure would hate to be the judge involved in this case. As it stands today, under Fed, Civil Law 36 Obama is already admitted to NOT be eligible to be president. Already this judge may need to change the rules to worm out of the case. If Obama is found to be ineligible we could be in Constitutional Crisis. What will that do the stock market.
Have some fun while we wait for Sirius to recover. LOL, I got tired of Sirius bad news and found more bad news. LOL…
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
This just in...without a birth certificate, Obama may not be old enough to run for President either. Fox News alledges that he is only 23.
Didn't mean to leave you out, please feel free to tear into me too.
16388, Cos,
There's been a bunch of confusion today as to the number of shares owned by inst. I don't have all the answers, but from what I understand, SIRI was at around 14% or 15% pre merger and XM was much higher. After the merger there was some buying which got the combined SIRI XM to 54% inst. owned...........Now, If it's at 50% now, then it has gone DOWN. I looked on that site today.... mffais.com....and the history shows mut funds BAILING over the past few weeks...........
Glad you day traders are making money today. The loyal invester that pulled Sirius past the merger has lost his butt so you can rubb it in. We love you too. LOL...
Obama thing - As for beliving in the DNC and Obama, anything is possible. I am in deep in Sirius because I trusted Mel. Why should I trust Obama or the DNC. I can't even see a doctore for 14 weeks or more because they want a real copy of my medicare card. Make Obama show his it... Fair is fair. LOL this is more fun... hehehhe....
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
I agree, I'm just trying to plan for the worst AND I think your idea gives too much credit to MEL & co. Your assuming Mel is thinking the same way you are.
There's a WAY bigger picture here......If it were that simple, we wouldn't be where we are right now.
I have 191,000. shares avg down to 2.51...
Tell me when you sell yours .025 at 0.33 and I will send a report to the IRS... Hehheheheh. LOL... No No No...
Institutional what? heheheheheh LOL....
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
By the way the market gos down when Obamas polls go up. Why do you think that is? The answer is simple the market is not dumb and now just what Obama means for the market and economy.
Obama and McCain are just the same. We live in dangerous times. The media is controlled and so is the market. Trillion dollar bailouts leading to federalized Banks, Insurance, and who knows what is next. Is your house getting bailed out? The World Bank leaders will be meeting in NY mid November to form a One Bank System and Bush called for it.
We are in big trouble and it not coming from Obama or McCain. They are just the newest puppets.
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
Can you all please read (or reread) the following theory I have for where we could be JULY 09????? I understand this is just speculation but I'm curious to see if any of you see anything that is impossible...thx.
I believe 25 cents is the bottom (maybe not the bottom, but the lowest dilution price). The reason is because any price below .25 would not allow the dilution and reverse split AND then allow the ending share price to be worth anything. (at .20, the ending share price would end up just over $4.00 after a 50 to 1 split, that's not high enough)
And the only reason I think that theory is worth anything is because I am now making ALL my decissions based of the idea that SIRI WILL NOT file for BK (until something comes along that showes me different).
SOMEONE or EVERYONE, is behind the manipulation and they know it's not going to BK too........At this point it doesn't matter to me who. So, SOMEONE or EVERYONE is playing out an agenda, and I now believe that agenda is to carry out the plan we've outlined............Fe... 2009=== no 2009 debt, 200m shares @ $5.00 per share (after 40 to 1 split) = $1B market cap (or close to those numbers), growing business, new products, synergies realized, profit in sight, all the good things come out that are being hidden from us now.........and away it goes.
So, If I really believe all of that, than I believe that by the middle of next year, after SIRI shows a Q1 and/or Q2 that meets or even BEATS expectations, than it will be obvious that SIRI WILL be cash flow positive by the end of next year.
SO, if that's the case, let's say in JULY of 09 SIRI can show it will be fully cash flow positive in the range of $500 mil for 2010. Which I believe is possible because I believe SIRI will go WAY over 22mil subs by the end of 2009 given we don't go into an all out depression. I believe that because I, along with everyone else, believe MEL has been low balling. The problem is, he's been low balling US...Anyway, so then, in JULY of 09, the market could price SIRI at 10 times 2010 earnings which would give SIRI a $5 billion cap. Divide that out by shares after dilution and split how ever you like, but I see the worst case at around 160 mil shares (50 to 1 split) at $31.25 per.
Here today to us longs who are getting the shaft, that would be a $5 bil cap divided by 8 bil shares or .62 per share.
I think these are the worst case numbers but they include the largest unknown factor,,,,,,, will the economy stop SIRI from getting and holding subs???
Please comment,,,,,
One more question,,,,,,,,depend... on the language in the proxy, does Mel have the ability to do a reverse split AND THEN do the dilution?? Meaning, is it possible for us to go from 3.2 bil shares to 64 mil shares after a 50 to 1 and then add the 4+ bil shares to dilute?????? I hope not, that's a different ball game.
163888...... Good to have you in the trenches my friend.... I almost got in another 10,000 shares at .20.... sooo close in pre-market. I see we closed at just under .30 better than I expected this morning. I am not going to sell anything at this point, we've waited to long to let go now...
Inconsistancy cause one down grade this week.
They don't go to the truble of a vote for things they do NOT plan to do. If you vote yes to the Rev-Split, it will happen!
Double-speak of power plays and flexability to finnance is BUNK! They will do what you give them the power to do!
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
They still have the % at 15. I think this is important to understand the nature and psychology of the investor and also to see what direction the ownership is heading. In fact, not just for Sirius but all companies.
siriusly depressed, To be honest it is impossable to say at this point, this company in my opinion should not be here at this point.
First of all, I'd like to remind everyone that Sirius belongs to us - not Mr. Karmazin or the Board of Directors. It is our company.
I ask all of you to please keep that in mind as we continue our fight to stop management from stealing our company from us.
It is important for each of us to due their part. Together we are an Army. That is why I am asking you to contact Olga at Business Weekly olga_kharif@businesswe... . Below is a sample of a two letters that you can use (cut and paste) or get ideas from.
Please also copy savesirius@gmail.com so we can keep up on what is being done
.Hi Olga,
As you know the state of the affairs of SiriusXm are to the point now ridiculous. We are being duped by management.
I am amazed at the sell-off in this stock over the course of many months. I would never have dreamed that the stock would trade today at 27 cents per share or a 1B market cap. I would also add that Goldman Sachs and others (probably hedge funds) are having a field day with the converts and naked short sales. This has been going on (in my opinion) for months and months with no enforcement action taken by the authorities. SIRI is wrongly trading at these low prices and I am quite surprised that Mel Karmazin has not been more pro-active in doing something to stop it.
Now with the upcoming shareholders meeting in December more deception is possibly lurking. Since you seem to understand the clear concept of the share price going down now wait to see what would happen with a reverse split and dilution.
The management is so silent at this point and that is the main concern of the shareholders. You would think Mel would give some news release and at least try to least stabilize the share price.
Almost 20 million subs and we are heading down?
Three loans that can be serviced and we heading down?
In five years we could be close to 30 million subs and we are heading down?
The fastest growing company in America last year and we are heading down?
I guess he wants it as low as it will go for the reverse split. What is his story? Really what is Mel trying to accomplish? We need your help to expose these issues.
Thank you in advance for your consideration to help us bring our issues to light through your efforts.
Dear Olga,
I will be brief.
I was given your email address from an active group of Shareholders who have frankly lost confidence in the management team, at the least, and many of us believe that the actions the company is proposing now amounts to nothing less than "stealing the company" from its stockholders.
I'm just your average "Joe the Plumber". I'm not an economist, but I do know a little about how the market works and what management is proposing, via its 10-16-08 Proxy, is best described by the information you can read at this link. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... .
Please feel free to contact me
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
I agree that is old information, from before the merger.
I went to the CNN link you provided (thanks by the way) and they like most sites on publish the top 15 equity holders. When I add the % of participation it comes to just over 16% as reported. Sooo I'm still confused.
You have no idea what they will do..... Delisting from Nasdaq was and is a real possibility when the stock price is under a buck. The day after the Proxy was released Nasdaq submitted a rule suspension request. Asking for authorization was prudent, implementing it and at what time will determine whether they are Wise..... Your posts are a great filibuster on the real issues.... just because you say it over and over again, doesn't make them true. At least my comments can be fact checked..... you wouldn't know anything about that though.....
The problem I see with only addressing the Feb debt right now is that it will leave all of our current problems on the table.
Everyone, including the shorts, knows that the Feb debt can be taken care of. Yet here we are less than .30....... May is right around the corner and the shorts are still here. The second the Feb debt is gone then the problem will be the May debt and we'll be waiting for "an opportunity in the markets" to take care of it.
They're all clouds hanging over our head and they're excuses as to why our share price is where it is.
The more I think about it the more I like the idea of dilution and reverse split.
It sounds crazy and I hate the idea of my 10000 shares turning into 200, but this entire nightmare would be over.
Share dilution would eliminate the UNCONTROLLABLE shorting.
It would ELIMINATE,not defer,ELIMINATE $1,000,000,000 in debt.
Some large holders on here want to make a collection to pay the debt for SIRI and have them owe us......SCREW THAT,,,,why, so the manipulators can continue to screw us with all the outstanding shares that will still be there?? Common share dilution is the same thing anyway.
I was here reading all the upbeat posts 6 months agoe and I was buying.
I am here now and will be here to post what happened and how to stop others from being hert.
I think truly some Sirius goons post here to double speak for Sirius. I will be here to keep the game a little more fair.
Facts are more often turned to fiction by the artist of propiganda.
Don't let what you hear fool you..... The Feb. 09 debt is not taken care of by any means. So far all we have heard is that it took 67M shares to get rid of $30M dollars of it..... at $.45 / share. Then the stock price went down from .40 to .25.
The lack of information on the details, the unknown amount of potential dilution, and the common shareholder running for the hills, is all because the Debt refinancing plans haven't been announced, at all.
We are putting forth, What IF's, because the Proxy Statement was released without any explanation from the company further eroding investor confidence. If there is manipulation from the company going on here its not from what their saying........
Here is how I will move on.
In 6 months my reserve funds will be spent. Since I am very handicapped and confined to a bed, I will never make more money.
In nine months I will lose my home. Then the social worker that has been trying for 6 years to get me inot a nursing home will win.
I will not have the money to fund myself. I will not have the money to pay a lawyer to fight the social worker and get me into assisted living or better.
I will be shut into a nursing home totaly destitute never again to see the light of day.
All because I played a market and wanted to help Mel fight the FCC becaus of my years of experince with the FCC trying to keep my mon-pop Internet service going as Verizon was killing it, and did kill it.
I helped and trusted a crook. I knew the risk. My fault... Get passed it...
I will do all the above and more. I will be dead... Thank Mel.
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
I do not make personal attacks and wish other would refrain.
We all have oppinions and I will never attack you for yours.
If you think I am posting the same than maybe I am not posting for you alone. Lots of people read here.
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
You and I may agree, and I have stated somewhere in all this mess in posting to s162, that the Feb 09 debt can be taken care of with cash on hand. I even thought that doing 100M - 150M in new converts would be OK as long as the % or carrying cost is reasonable on the convert. My point above is without any comment from the company, Mel, the psychology of the situation sucks. Too many unknowns, giving reason for those that got in for the merger pop, to bail and push the SP down. IMHO
How about the fair assumption of manipulation based on what's NOT being said....
How does an innocent CEO watch his stock creep to .22 CENTS and remain SILENT????
This has been a VERY steady and consistant path straight down for months. Wasn't he worried about it continuing down to ZERO?? If he was worried he would have done SOME kind of damage control to stop it. If he was NOT worried,,,,WHY, HOW COULD HE NOT BE.
I'm sorry Cos, but I feel completely foolish to continue to hold ANY hope that Mel isn't involved in trying to hurt us.
I only see 2 other possibilities. 1) SIRI is in BIG trouble that we don't know about. no money? the combined co. doesn't look as good as hoped? subs are leaving in droves due to the economy?? something is wrong.(in this case, we're screwed anyway)........2) Mel is in some effort / conspiracy to give it to the shorts / bond holders / debt holders what ever, for the benefit of SIRI,,,,,in this doubtful scenario, Mel is still guilty of killing the common shareholder.
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
This is a fact, and man, thats a lot of money.
This is simply manipulation at its finest. I would have to applaud the manipulators because they have a lot of people running scared right now, but I am not budging. I think it is a very testing period at the moment, but all is certainly not lost. Imagine Sirius as a debt free company and the possibilities that the revenue will bring. It doesn't take a mathematician to realize that this is way undervalued and is being shorted constantly. Jim Cramer said this would be the result, but in all honesty I don't think even Jim saw this coming. Nevertheless, it is fascinating to read these posts of fear and blame with no more evidence than has actually been presented. Really nothing has been presented to substantiate any of these doomsday scenarios. So be patient and keep the emotions under control because the company is doing what needs to be done for this to work. Remember,silence is golden, and the threat is often times greater than its execution.
Long Sirius
WoW what a jerk I am.... sorry.... all I have to lose here is a little money... good luck....
I do NOT think your a jerk. Actualy I think your 89% correct and 96% on most other posts you made.
If we could just get Mel to do get some financing holiday advertising all trubles would be solved.
Have to disagree with one part of your post. The split will not eliminate uncontrollable shorting. Naked shorting is not policed, and there will be no change in that until there is a new SEC commsioner, or more. The numbers just came out. There is a 15% increase in Sirius shorit numbers. It is the number one shorted stock.
The things you mention are being looked at without a doubt. As with every merger there is a period of transition where the systems of the two companies must be integrated. The most important thing is no bankruptcy in which case everyone loses. I do not believe this is a possiblity going forward which is my biggest concern. I have been able to average down to near a buck and will stay with it at this level. I am not concerned by all of the speculative theatre that I read concerning Sirius. There is money to be lent and the credit markets are thawing a little bit more every day. Perhaps the lending rate will actually be 0% very soon due to the environment. In any case Sirius has come to far to fail now. It just takes time. The problem I see is that most people in this society want everything done yesterday. I am not alone when I say I thought the merger would produce a substantial pop for the stock. However, when this did not occur and the realities began to set in, I made a conscious decision to average down. I stand by my decision. I think this is an opportunity for everyone to do the same. Patience is a virtue and not employed by many. The financing will get done, and in the long term it will be advantageous to those that hold on. Maybe not tomorrow, but in time. I would rather lose it all than sell and salvage a few pennies now. This is not the only investment that I have and I am sure it is not the only one you have, so just let it go. Time is the precious commodity that is being purchased here, nothing more and nothing less, just time. And with time all things are possible.
Remember we have an election coming up and a lot of this will be cleared up after we have a new leader for this country. Obama will likely win and is very bullish on his beloved Detroit. He has said time and time again that the auto industry must not fail and it will not fail when he is elected. Remember we are part of a legal monopoly and if combined with a president that is pro auto industry, I see a winning combination for Sirius.
Long Sirius
Long Sirius
A quick follow to your comment...and with all respect...
First, I think the panic is pretty much over. By now most long sellers going ashore are on shore. Those left, are taking the real-time journey through the dilution and split from here and I don't find fault in either decision because it's a personal one. I still support anyone who is still long and holding. I get it that there are many people (including those here on this forum) who are sadly waaaay down on this stock and no, it makes 0 sense to sell@ .20 or even .05 at this point. But I have to say, the negativity towards Mel and the company will remain however because he/they deserve it. Any CEO who has allowed the common stock to go from $9.00 in Nov. 2004 when he joined the company down to .20 on Oct 24 2008 on his watch, has CLEARLY mismanaged the company and clearly has not been looking out for shareholder value. And now to say his action plan is to dilute further and reverse is unacceptable. He promised to make us whole from the merger dilution...instead, he has decided to dilute even more than that time then reverse to make everything look like nothing just happened (oh and to support the next short). Some people here say that's not lying. I say it is. When Mel says he looks out for shareholder value, he doesn't necessarily mean any shareholders in particular. What he means is: the ones that will still own SIRI 3-5 years from now--which could be us, could be the next group after this reverse, it could mean the group after that. That's how vague he is when he means shareholder value. Looking for facts? This is a huge one that just should not be ignored--by anyone...shareholders, Wall Street, analysts. Everyone. This is the type of decline where people go to jail for malfeasance. Who knows, maybe Cuomo will get a bug and investigate this...unless he has too much respect for the great Mel Karmazin. Unfortunately, there is the smoke screen of the financial crisis to blend Mel into the woodwork. This guy has stolen money from people who believed in him and this company. Uber Salesman Mel, has sold us right out of our own shoes. But even if no one else looks at anything else about this, how can anyone not acknowledge this fact? I would like to know if anyone here can post directly to me and say what I have just laid out is cool? That you agree with that kind of 4 year decline? To be honest even before the merger when the stock was @ 2.29 was a disgrace. It just means that Mek Karmazin is in his own world and on his own timetable...which he refuses to share with the world. Jut reading that Faber interview, it's easy to see how all over the place the guy is with his thoughts.
My other point to you is you are absolutely correct. After this share dilution and reverse (whenever it's effectuated) will leave the company in pretty good short-term shape (on paper). But since they got to that pretty good shape not because of honest profits, they will still be under hard scrutiny quarter in quarter out. No company will be watched and disected and conjectured upon more than SIRI (or whatever their new ticker symbol will be). But as I say, you're right. With one filing, Mel has taken BK out of the equation. Once all that in the Proxy is approved and ratified, it will be a new day and provide the company with new leveraged funny money with which to move. That part is not arguable in my opinion. But at what price? It's at the hand of many loyal shareholders who will never be made whole (at least not for quite some time if ever).
So yeah, Mel is doing his thing and short of oustering him and his whole bard, he's just gfoing to continue doing that very thing (while collecting a cool 5M a year and living in Trump Tower.)
I do have one other thing to say (or ask) about the merger TO THE ROOM if you will--since it is the merger which has turned out to be the deathnell (to-date) for this stock and shareholder value. I didn't own the stock at this time (June of '07 I think), but as I was going through the merger, I noticed that the merger itself was voted upon and approved by shareholders. I would like to hear any opinions of people here (Mr. Hartlieb included) who were owners then and voted on that as to if they were tricked about financing promises or time frame guarantees--how you voted and what you were expecting after looking at all the debt XM had if you voted in favor. i'm not spinning this negative in any way, I'm just curious if anyone has anything to offer on this subject if they were involved with that vote. Thanks.
Sept. 30.
COMPANY OCT 15 SEPT 30 NET CHANGE PCT CHANGE
----------------------...
FIVE BIGGEST INCREASES:
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 232,009,933 199,000,884 33,009,049 16.59
Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 69,298,881 61,207,581 8,091,300 13.22
Dell Inc (DELL.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 39,948,752 33,789,497 6,159,255 18.23
Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 28,095,547 22,604,283 5,491,264 24.29
Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 29,794,928 24,551,791
When the blood suckers on SEC or Treasury would stop Naked shorts and uphold the law
if you read the comments posted here and at other websites it would be difficult to know whether or not . . . .
michael hartleib is a NUT
michael hartleib is like a CRAZY UNCLE
michael hartleib is a SCORNED INVESTOR
michael hartleib is a WHINER
who is MICHAEL HARTLEIB?
FACT: Michael Hartleib has spent $45,000 of his own money in successfully contesting a bogus class action lawsuit which would have indemnified SiriusXM executives against future litigation by shareholders
FACT: Michael Hartleib has spent approximately 3,000 hours researching interoperability requirements before the merger announcement was even made
FACT: Michael Hartleib has sustained verifiable losses in SiriusXM stock of approximately $1,000,000 (ONE MILLION DOLLARS)
FACT: Michael Hartleib declined a settlement offer of $500,000 related to his litigation in the bogus "Brockwell" class action lawsuit which would have deprived shareholders of all future remedies
FACT: Michael Hartleib has provided full disclosure and is NOT affiliated with the National Association of Broadcasters
FACT: Michael Hartleib has posted his phone # and email address on the internet and has invited interested shareholders to contact him for more information about his plans and efforts; unlike his detractors, michael hartleib is not hiding behind an internet pseudonym
who is MICHAEL HARTLEIB? you be the judge . . .
savesirius@gmail.com
It is surely not my intention to railroad my opinion thru everyone and then sound off on who ever doesn't agree....
The reality is, I have just as little evidence as everyone else and a lot LESS experience. I do have a good intuition though and that along with the info I pick with all of you is what is getting me through this.
163888, Cos,
I appreciate your grounded views and your patience. I want to believe in the best case scenario and I want to be able to trust Mel.....But I've been doing that for almost 4 years and I'm tired of it. If nothing else I guess I've been consumed to the roll of devil's advocate. So when I throw something hard at you I guess I'm looking for you to prove me wrong...Weird, I know,,,,,but sorry and thanks.....
Cos,
Thanks for the proxy details. So tell me if I have this right,,,,,,If 8 billion shares are "authorized" and THEN a reverse split is approved,,,,,than the reverse split will immediately take affect on ALL 8 bil shares (reguardless of the number of authorized vs. issued)???? So, there's no chance of SIRI splitting the "issued" shares and then HOLDING billions of shares to issue at a future date which were never split?
What has Mel said recently regarding the reverse split and dilution? I have not heard anything. Nothing has actually been done yet. I will wait.
thanks for the response
mlongj
for immediate release . . . .
VOTE YES FOR THE REVERSE STOCK SPLIT!
VOTE YES FOR NEW EQUITY ISSUANCE!
Vote yes if you are in favor of further diluting the value of your shares
Vote yes if you support naked shorting by hedge funds
Vote yes if you are employed by Goldman Sachs
Vote yes if you feel there is not enough time to ready for 2010 delisting
Vote yes if you believe that 17 months is not enough time to secure a responsible merger financing commitment or to have conducted adequate due diligence for contingency planning
Vote yes if you favor a 15 year integration time-line for interoperable oem installations
Vote yes if you agree with the investment advice of the few remaining Mel loyalists who have watched their stock evaporate from $3.94 per share on December 3, 2007 to $0.30 (THIRTY CENTS) ON October 24, 2008
Vote yes if you agree with Mel Karmazin that you are an UNSOPHISTICATED investor
VOTE YES FOR THE REVERSE STOCK SPLIT?
VOTE YES FOR NEW EQUITY ISSUANCE?
I still support all here who believed in a concept and a CEO and have been handed nothing but gruel. My losses, though substantial to me, are nothing compared with some here who also have been victimized by Mel K and his mismanagement (though he still delusionally believes throwing any number of shareholders under the bus is the right thing to do for the survival an betterment of the company--the brand). To Mel you're supposed to owe your soul to the company store. He's like a mad scientist I say. But the point is, I'm going to keep looking for answers, more proof, whatever it is, because something stinks here pretty bad. It may not be punishable in a court of law, but I'm just trying to help keep info flowing. Mel has and is pulling some sh%t and Brandon is writing about how happy he is. Not once has either Tyler or Brandon wrote about the Bondholder short. Why not? Brandon is excited about a 30M dilutive paper stock payment and says now it wil be easier to pay off the rest of the debt. That still leaves $270M. What is that chump change? And if it were that easy to pay off Brandon, why does SIRI announce the Proxy intentions? You don't Brandon. Those two things dont' add up. You're right relmor, we have seen the manipulation all throughout. What we've seen doesn't jive with what Mel has said in public. We have seen the underbelly and the blood and guts on the floor, whilel Mel has been out shooting of his mouth abotu nonsense. My take is he has to know the Q3 numbers. Why on god's green earth would he need the Proxy if those numbers were any good? If they were, that filing release would have been a news pre release of good news of a good quarter from Mel. He would be proud to announce he was right... and say here is the proof in our first Q out of the gate. That would have raised his stock price back to $1 as we speak-- no problem. Then with the actual release and good outlook for Q4, the shorts would have continued to cover, new money would be coming in and the stock would be approaching $1.50 right now as we speak--maybe higher with dips up and down. But at least the stock would be alive and vital and behaving like a real stock. Instead, we have the reality...8B share dilution announced, a reverse, a .29 stock and probably down Q numbers in the wings. I know what he's going to say in the call. He's going to say "hey, it was a tough quarter! Look, it was tough for everybody, not just us...that's why were are doing the additional shares and reverse. We hate the stock price where it is..it sucks to be .20. We're a better company than that. We're being treatred unfairly!" He's going to pull all the stops in that call and whine like a baby. Then at the meeting he's going for broke to get those new shares approved. You're right, we believed in this guy and he f%cked us.
That would be my understanding but I am not an SEC law or rule expert. My understanding is that all common shares registered are involved in the split, whether issued or not. This would definitely be a good question for the SEC to find out for sure. I do no that the proxy statement says that the 8 billion shares will be filed and registered immediately following the affirmative vote.
Sirius Roadkill....
Why didn't Michael file a "Proposals of Security Holders" with the company to be included in the Preliminary and Definitive Proxy Statement?
I know you all know Siri does not exist in a bubble. Stocks can go from $50 to cents and $100 to cents. I know because I have shorted some and unfortunately yes - held some long for a time. This happens especially when bubbles burst.
In the last year we have seen the collapse of the credit markets and TRILLIONS lost - house foreclosures running rampant, unemployment rising - auto sales totally slammed and the Dow now where it was 10 year ago, or in other words- no growth because every stock, mutual fund, 401k, has been crushed - causing alarm in all corners of the globe. Any speculating in the Mkt has been decimated.
Cities, companies, households scarcely holding on and many going bankrupt. Fear, negativity and insecurity rules the day and the outlook for the future. Our once celebrated former FED Chairman never saw this mind-boggling Crisis coming.
SO I wonder in all seriousness:
How much do you feel Siri stock would be without Mel?
Why do you believe the rules for delisting were changed?
I feel for you that you have been with SIRI exactly how long it has taken for Mel to kill this common stock. You would be a good person to answer the question I put out to the room. How did you vote on the merger in '07? And what were you told by Mel and Co at the time? I wasn't in the stock at that time...
But your point is well thought and which shows how crazy this whole situation is. I wish the FCC would require SIRI to go in front of them to explain wha they want to do this new action and how all of this will be used (just as Paulson had to go in fromt of Congress to get the TARP approved for 700B). Imagine investing in a company that had 8B shares approved to be issued and them not issuing until they felt like it along the way, creating instant dilution each time. Or same case in a reverse that is on the table. That's why if any of this goes through, they would be best to release the shares, split then get about the business of trying to convince new investors they are credible. Wall Street and uncertainty don't mix as all know. As long as they don't have all that resolved = no faith from new investors. That's why I see both those actions being triggered sooner than later--by end of year, (if approved).
Hang in there...
Please everyone vote no to the REV-Split
If you value Sirius please protect its reputation and vote no to the the REV-SPLIT. Once Mel converts a million dedicated users/stock holders into losers and haters of Sirius, this company will be doomed for years no matter what the ticker name.
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
I'll take that one. The only stocks you're talking about are unhealthy company's (going through those huge drops to which you refer). SIRI is no different but they are even worse because of the debt they assumed from XM (could they afford to assume that debt?). Meaning would you buy a 1M house if you were making 75K a year? And if you did buy it, would you pull the trigger just because that house might be going into BK and then you might not get it because others would be bidding on it or that it would be tied up in BK court for too long? Would you just go ahead with the deal knowing full well the debt was going to possibly break you? But that you thought it would make you look prestigious and maybe eventually you would be able to make enough money to pay for it?
Gooch, your point is valid and I have said the same thing before. Many companies are representing a "similar" scenario you describe and they are easy to see. Most stocks that are cents now were 1, 2, 3, maybe $4 stocks and have been beaten down. Further, as cents, they are no lower than .50. .60, .70, which they will hold and bounce off of back up to their former levels very quickly--they won't be going down to .20 anytime soon. Why? because they are healthy...announcing wins in the market and showing growth. AKA, they are communicating the company's cash earning news. Shorts scramble on that kind of news--hence the rise and fall of a stock. Now of course since indie investors can't short under $5, these are institutional shorts and wil be getting in an out. BUT. If the Street even thinks you are going out of business, you are headed down and will be kept down until you disprove that emphatically. Further, you also don't have IB financing where they are given dilutive shares to short to ensure the hedge on their loan. Kind of like a loan shark thing huh? Thanks Mel. Oh yeah and one last thing...you have to look at any company's 5 year chart Gooch. There it will be easy to see if the company is mismanaged or just caught up in this downturn--very easy to see...IMHO
Thanks for your info. I had a feeling that was the case. Seeing how Mel works. That would make me even more pissed off...
I'd love to hear other opinions. Thanks.
Well stated and an accurate picture of the real world.....
S162....
Paulson is the Secretary of the Treasury, rightfully appearing in front of Lawmakers. You don't really think that the FCC is a board / commission deserving of any accounting from anyone, do You? They dragged this BS out for 17months, or do you also think that was Mel's plan....?? What do you think financing would have been like with a FCC approval 6 months earlier. Talk about incompetence and bleeding the companies dry. Even the DOJ approval taking a year and then writing a two paragraph statement finding for the companies was absurd.
Your question about voting for the approval in 2007 of the merger is irrelevant when the process was dragged out so long after that vote was taken. Who knew? Back then we weren't throwing Mel under the bus, we were throwing the DOJ and the FCC under it.
There are many moving parts that got us here. Don't let the comments above from Gooch fall on deaf ears, because the economy and credit melt down are having their way with this process also. All this finger pointing at this time before we hear from the company is meaningless. Michael Hartlieb has a right to his legal proceedings but he is just another moving part with an agenda.
Wow groups of people are MAD about this Rev-Split.
SMASHING RETAIL RADIOS?
Several groups around the country are smashing Sirius radios by "accident" in the Wall Mart and Circ City. How did he put it? " Oppps it fell off the shelf. Oh my I stepped on it! " LOL!!!!
PLAN TO PULL DOWN AREA REPEATERS?
Others are posting locations of the Sirius repaters. These guys are planning to rip down the radio repeaters and take Sirius off the air.
WOW! This could be getting out of controle! Mel deserves this and more. I hope they rip into his office and take his little black book of hookers.
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
I forgot your last part about the Nas extension. That is very warranted as it was in '02/'03. But again, I say, those stocks driven down under a buck, which are relatively healthy, won't go beyond .50/.60 --which they will touch then bounce off of as soon as things improve. Right now SIRI does not qualify in that category, IMO. Mel has seen to that.
..where would this stock price be without Mel?.....lol lol
It cant be ANY worse.
Who would have voted for the merger if they new it would take 1.5 years?...
Exactly...No one. Thats why any law suit or seperate one should include the FCC. I wouldnt n that one, as I didnt vote on the merger. But as FCC mandates were violated, laws were broken, and enough monkey business from the government to send enough bells and whistles off to choke a horse. This whole thing stinks, very badly. What manipulation is their involving Citigroup? None. Everyone knows(or should) that bank profits are 100 PERCENT tied to recession, growth cycles. If you lost your ass in a bank stock , you deserve it.
Owning a company trading at 2.40 presynergies, guessing correctly on its approval, and that the company is future viable, yes I think it is a joke. The merger gave NEGATIVE VALUE TO XM. SO BASICALLY, XM SHOULD HAVE BEEN TRADING AT -2.10 PRIOR TO MERGER.
Since this is mathematically impossible, I smell a rat. Far as I know, stocks only go to .00, not negative values.
Pre merger market cap-Sirius(Market already senses possible deep recession....2.40 as one of the worst decisions in history. Im speaking as an investor, not a consumer of the product.
Why was I for the merger? I figured no further dilution and no RS worries would keep the stock from tanking. Also, the synergies would excite new investors(this stock has never failed to incite investor interest). Sure enough, there was plenty of investor interest, in short doses, enough to get my jump I wanted, but the MM's robbed me of that, time and time again. I almost sold at 2.75 jump, but I literally didnt get time to EVEN THINK ABOUT IT.
The AFES Military Exchange, the military department store HQ based in TX no longer has Sirius radios on its web site. So, I just called my girl who is a manager at Andrews Air Base Exchange. She said they were told to remove the radios on Wednesday.
Mel may have pissed off a General putting his investment in danger.
Could also be an Xmass update model coming out.
Now that is news...
VOTE NO TO THE REV-SPLIT
VOTE NO TO MOE SHARE ISSUES
My company just announced a 25 % reduction in Salary presonnel. This is being done in advance of a potential takeover by a rival firm. In my opinion, the cut is being done in the event that the takeover does not occur. My company is majority held by a Capital Management Company that went to JPMorgan & Chase for its financing. The credit markets being the way they are a decision was made by the creditors to push for the sale of my company.The Capital Management Company which owns 51% of the rival firms financing arm has changed the credit rules for consumers. The Capital Management Company is "Suggesting" a swap of assets that would be mutually beneficial.
Bottom line:
GS is the instigator in my Companies fate, just as much as it is in the instigator in the SiriusXM financing. There was talk of puppets earlier in the thread. I suggest you look up ownership of the Federal Reseve of New York. The Point is that GS has power! If GS Shorts a stock, then you better believe there is something to it. Until the ShoReg numbers change, we would all be better just to hang tight and watch the financing games played. SiriusXM only had a billion dollar impact on the market. . . . . GS & their ilk control stocks by the trillions.
Sirius Roadkill....
Why didn't Michael file a "Proposals of Security Holders" with the company to be included in the Preliminary and Definitive Proxy Statement?
I thank the gentleman cos1000 for his question; one that should definitely not go unanswered. May I respectfully suggest that anyone with questions about the UNIFIED HARTLEIB PLAN call MICHAEL HARTLEIB directly at: 714-927-5898 or if you do not wish to incurr phone charges, you can email him at savesirius@gmail.com and he will return your call at his own expense. He will openly discuss any question at great length and in full detail with complete transparency.
in the interim . . . I shall place a call to Mel Karmazin to ask him why he refuses to unseal his deposition in the "Brockwell" litigation. I shall also ask him if he would permit me to examine the interoperable radio that he claims is "right there on his (my) desk.
(Private note to Mel's screeners; FYEO/All else DO NOT READ: Melvin, Melvin, Melvin . . . you've been around a boardroom once or twice in your day. I'm sure if you've heard it said once you've heard it said a hundred times . . . "you're either with us or you're agin us." This ain't Switzerland Mel. It's time to come down from your ivory Trump Tower and address the great unwashed masses. On the way down . . don't forget, Leon likes his coffee "Black." See ya on the 18th Mel; Save me a ringside seat.)
A few things. First, my allusion to having to answer to the FCC was more figurative than literal. Of course I wouldn't expect that esp. knowing all the circumstances involving their participation. The point was I would love it if SIRI was forced to go in front of some entity to explain themselves to get what thay are proposing in the proxy. I give the FCC, just like the FDA, 0 cred. For a company asking so much from their shareholders, I'm sorry cos1000, but the silence bit ain't cutting it. For a company who has done to their shareholders via the merger, esp. as you yourself just described that you would not have voted for it if you knew it would take so long, their silence ain't cutting it. They operate like a thief in the night. That Proxy should have damn well come with some kind of explanation to shareholders from Mel, and you know it. I wonder how they communicated with you during that merger holding period? I think I know the answer.
As I'm sure you know, I many times have stated the moving parts and the downturn as good reasons for most stocks being down, so no reminder needed there. With due respect cos, IMO you are changing (maybe bending is a better term) the rules somewhat when it comes to corporate transparency, visibility and overall market uncertainty. This is a BIG deal in this company's history (requesting 8B and reverse), not some insignificant release about Bubba Love Sponge. It deserved to be treated as such and it was not at the companies choice. Yes, their earnings is now only 2 weeks away--however the call isn't until the week before TGiving and you still might not hear a lick about this until then. But Cos, come on. Your cutting Mel too much slack here IMO. You know that uncertainty will KILL KILL KILL a stock cos. And that is what happened. Looking back on it, you know how news gets leaked by birdies at the IB's, Wall Street cronies, etc...When you look at the chart, I wouldn't doubt that news was leaked to the right people weeks before we got it. Hence the steady decline. Now cos. Please help me here. If you were running SIRI and you knew/wanted the following:
1. Your stock was already in serious trouble
2. You didn't like your stock beng a penny stock
3. You know what being silent and uncertainty will do to ANY stock
4. You were sincerely caring about your investors and thier money
Is this how you would have handled releasing the Proxy? Further is this how you would have handled the merger? If not, why then are we in the position in which we find ourselves at .29? Because of the financial downturn? I think you're giving old Mel waaaay too much slack here. Where is your outrage? I'm perplexed.
forgot to mention about the Proxy leak..that's most likely why the stock didn't move a lick the day after that came out. Sell on the rumor, do nothing on the news...
I'm sorry but I have to agree with sl62. There's patience and then there's turning and looking the other way and pretending you don't see it..........
This is not off topic at all. And agreed, that's what we've not only been saying but have seen in real-time. And that used to be the only enemy. But I just asked cos1000 if he would have executed as Mel has, esp. knowing what you are stating. If Mel wasn't in on this, he would be fightng tooth and nail for us. He would have been on Cramer 2 other times, he would be communicating with shareholders to say, "this is a tough spot we're in but we're fighting for you. We stupidly did thr financing with the devil the last week and last hour before we closed and now because of the terms, the stock is being shorted and is trying to be brought down...but we wil fight it to protect your interests." Nothing like that...as if it were even a possibility (LOL) but just nothing at all. Just slipping a note bomb under our door telling us we've been evicted and we have 60 days to vacate the premises, no questions, no quarter. Mel sucks.
Thank you. Exactly what I have thought many times. XM premerger was trading at I believe $8 and change -- down about 3 bucks from 11-12--while being on the brink of BK. What's worse is they had similar debt as SIRI if not more considering the MLB contract they waaay over paid for. Yet they traded over 10 most of their existence. SIRI was averaging about $4 -5 (but that was only because of Howard and then Mel coming to the company). Granted XM had more subs but where was the scrutiny about THEIR debt? They should have been valued if nothing, the same as SIRI is not less, being on the brink of BK. Which we now over inherited and are getting ass-whipped for?? Ooops! More overpayment from SIRI!! This deal is SOOOO TAINTED IT STINKS!
This stock has been shorted beyond belief, so why hasn't the lame SEC stopped this practice. I'm sure it has felt the pressure of naked short selling as well. Is anyone aware of traders being found guilty of this act and prosecuted in the past. If not why haven't they.
today I read an interesting story in a small local paper . . . the story was entitled:
"Bank president addresses customers' economic concerns"
In a nutshell . . . the president of a medium sized community bank, with multiple locations, held a townhall style meeting at one of the local branches. The article says that "several audience members pointed out that the bank's stock had been down in recent days"
The president replied as follows:
"Right now I think investors are in a bunker mentality mode. I apologize for the performance on the stock but I think we're victim of guilt by association right now . . . We did everything we could, and until the market figures out who the good guys are and who the bad guys are, there's not much else we can do"
It wouldn't take much Mel to restore order . . . come down from the ivory Trump Tower and stream a live townhall style video conference for shareholders. Whisper a few sweet-nothings in our ears Mel . . . there may still be time to kiss and make-up Mel but you are forcing the long devoted into the arms of another . . . come down Mel . . . address the great unwashed masses.
First, if your alias accurately represents your service to our country..much appreciated...
As far as your stock question...do you know if it was a buy or sell? I couldn't watch LVL 2 today so I didn't see it (or what the size of the sale was). You may know that things get a little wild at the open and close of each day (as it can also be in premarket/afterhours) due to shake outs, last minute deals and euphoria on less volume. But a few concepts could be: 1. It was a short cover (which on a day like today which was all covering) is the most logical. And MM's are crazy and have buddies so you never know. One probably let his buddy cover @.22 rather than where it should have been @ .29. No one can catch this kind of activity it happens so fast. Or 2. the reverse is true on a straight buy. Same MM helping a buddy get in lower. Or 3. a MM snatched a low bid loaded in the queue for his client or 4. MM was trying to start a dive for similar. Hard to say exactly. But MM's are crazy and evil so anything is possible.
Shorting is a necessary evil because it often plays the other side of a trade to keep things more even plus it helps people hedge. When it gets real bearish or in a crisis, uhhhhh... shorting can pile on and make 100 year-old companies go out of business!... but most of the time, it's a necessary evil but necessary to trading. Naked = wicked. I don't know if that's what you meant....
Thanks for that and...hell yeah. He's done jack sh%t for us and that is a FACT!! His media and conference appearances are way hollow...and besides he always says the same things,,,blah blah, autos, even if 12M cars, synergies, blah blah. Things the Street is TIRED of hearing. Do you know what happens when you keep saying the same thing over and over to the Steet? A: .21 - .29.
The Street would love to hear Mel not only say something different but to his shareholders like he cares about saving the company. This is not bashing. This is reality.
He built a solid foundation and tanked the stock. Then, he used a special Vehical to buy up the stock. Then he took it private for a few years. When the smoke cleared, Poof, you had Viacom...
Tanking Sirius was the plan. Mel is a historic and confirmed crook. We are the chumps!
If we only knew about his history...
Vote no to the Rev-Split
Vote no more shares issed
I never knew that about Viacom. Are you shure on that?
Also a quick question...I know you say vote no...but let's say those are voted down..what do you anticipate will happen...or want happen. Just wondering. I think if voted down they will have no choice but to BK (basically do what XM was abut to do pre merger).
That's my opinion on this.... If you guys say that Mel doesn't care about us now... What makes you think that if we vote NO to his plan he won't just dump us all right now.... BK and reorganize.... HAHA!!
You guys have this all backwards anyways.....
BK has to be a smokescreen . . . pay Feb with combo of cash-on-hand and private money . . . extend May . . . use some of the FCF to deal with Dec in much improved credit environment; draw on seller credit line for sat launch
Taking care of Feb & May should move needle out of delisting territory, if only temporarily to reset the clock. Come back to us later for RS if really needed or for limited authorization of new equity if Dec is still an issue.
fly in ointment is new subs . . . hopefully growing due to oem penetration but retail could be a bust
can't imagine a BK judge allowing a voluntary petition at this point. a vote of "NO" does not preclude Board from coming back with amended proxy that is more palatable to shareholders
Mel either already has the "YES" votes in the bank - or - is asking for more than he expects shareholders to approve; as they say on the street . . . ask 5 . . . expect 3 . . . get 2. done.
If we vote YES to the distribution of shares AND the RS..... (No matter how much you guys think it is the wrong thing to do)
-- The company will be able to pay off it's debt with out getting into another DEBT DEAL with another bank... (It will be SCOTT FREE!)
-- Then SIRI RS... The price goes up to about $5 - $10 /S....
Now I know you guys will bombard me with
"IT WILL BE SHORTED BACK TO NOTHING" or....
"IT WILL DESTROY THE LONG INVESTORS!"
But hear me out.....
Now with a SIRI/XM that is debt free....
Trading around $5 - $10 / Share
A shit load fewer shares outstanding
Positive cash flow that we are so close to getting
And increasing subscriber base....
A.) What makes you think that there will be people who even DARE to TRY to short this stock back down....
B.) What makes you think that this stock will not rise to the occasion ???
(I truly believe this stock can easily survive a RS... There are so many shares outstanding for the size of this company that it makes sense even w/o this share price)
----------------------... LONG SIRI ----------------------...
Better luck everyone and have nice weekend-
So..I guess we'll just have to wait and see What the GREAT MEL KARMAZIN WIZARD OF OZ is up to. This cruel to us. It is sooo clear to see how he thinks his shareholders are unsophisticated...this is how he treats us.
Oh...keep in mind that PFCF...that is on paper only because thats before satellite capital expenditures...so not necessarily free cash..again, very dependent on many factors...
He is doing it again to us with Sirius. I bet he has some people buying up every share dumped in the past 2 weeks. My guess is he may already controle the vote. But, I hope not.
As for BK, I said it before, because the Bond holders want to renew at 3.8% BK would not be granted by any court.
Additional, becasue Mel's history has been exposed he may change his plan a bit. If not, any funny stuff to force a BK would only add to his already exposed and liable butt. We could be in a Class Action for years. So, I hope he changes his act and soon.
MIGHT BE SIRIUS? That is fine for you. But loyal investores like me will be locked into 75.00 Min per share investments if this RS gets done.
Vote NO the the Rev Split. For the love of God please vote NO!
Not trying to iggy you... The RS could work fine..for the company. I think not so much for us. But in time...IF the company comes through with the subs, income, etc... old shareholders could recoup partial investment--probably in 3 years though and a lot of things have to go really right. The short will happen. Depending on the bondholder deals...if there is another hedge short...that's one. Two, it's just a natural play on Wall Street. Everyone knows a company reverses for a reason..A: they are somehow in trouble. So...because of that right off the bat, the chum is in the water and sharks circle fast. That's why many companies don't stay up after RS..because as soon as reverse is done, the clock starts ticking. The company has to get the themselves straightened out before the stock gets pummeled back where it started. Its a race--a few Q's max, so about 6 months. If they can straighten out and new investors come in to balance out the short, then the stock stablizes...That's pretty much how it goes...
But overall, the deal saves "the company." IMO.
You have articulated a well-reasoned and fully plausible scenario . . . the real question is whether or not the shareholders have the confidence that Mel will execute your plan as delineated.
Big Chief Running Bear has a major credibility problem right now . . . and for good reason . . . speak with forked-tongue.
Reverse Split, New Shares and voila, Mel buys Manhattan for 24 bucks? Therein lies the problem . . .
That theory is interesting. So then maybe the plan is... he pisses off investors to dump shares back to him at garage sale prices (down here and lower as we should continue to drift into the teens). Then he let's the Proxy fail and say's he has no choice but to go private...remember he said for NO APPARENT REASON..."what do I have to do, loan the company money myself?"
Wow. Who knows how this is going to play out. I wonder if Vegas has odds on this???
You're NOT close to a postive cash flow at all. Most all of the companies reporting are going considerably in the opposite direction. Sirius sold it's soul to the devil by relying so extensively on auto subscriptions and there is no way that they won't be caught in the freefall in Detroit. Mel will certainly not be raising the revenue forecast in two weeks. Putting aside all questions about the company's survival and RS, please stop distributing the nonsense that this company is close to being revenue positive! You don't even have any idea how much they will have to pay for their money. Your whole blog is pie in the sky bull.
can't see BK as company already has sufficient cash flow for existing debt service, right?
I don't think they've ever missed a payment. With Feb gone & May extended Dec could get done with some cash-in and more favorable terms, no?
eh, who knows . . . that's the problem with no guidance or transparency
I hope the RS was just because of the rule that was suspended before the announcement.
I was all about Mel and Sirius. I would love to see it debt free and on a role.
But this RS is just not fair. I would take a make whole remedy and vote yes. IE issue to "loyal long term investors" a 5 year bond equal to loses. Wow dream Mark dream. LOL.
But, now I have done the investigations. I have heard what was suppressed and I am devastated. I don't see Mel doing us any good.
Vote no to the REV-Split
I just don't think that call is going to be good. And Mel's going to play it like a bull in a china shop. Blaming everyone, the economy...I just have a bad feeling.
I'm starting to wonder if this stock might even go sub-penny. Can a stock be sub-p on Nas? Tricky because they've now suspended the delisting rule. I've never seen this much drama in one stock/company before. This even beats Yahoo!
If so, soon we'll see if the market leaves SIRI behind or takes it with it. That will give more clarity to this stock. Short interest increased by Oct 10 back up to 230M. But now, that's old news. I need the number for the 25th now not in November!! Who knows where things stand now--there's been plenty of action since then.
btw...relmor...good call on the market through Oct. Looks like starting next week longs will have more of a respite and make a few bucks..finally!
If you are so sure that the company will avoid BK....
Vote yes to the dilution and the RS.....
Then when the dilution occurs... Pick up a ton of shares on the down low and average down faster than ever......
That's what I have been saving my silver bullet for!
As far as INJC he has been right so far.... although back when i started posting here I think he has been right based on luck.... But we are mostly just stating what we think is going to happen based on emotions.....
And trying to back them up with reasonable thinking.....
I say keep writing.... This is fun.....
Indeed, Siri is down > 80% of premerger in July. Did any one take a look how many banks, stocks are also at 10-20% from July. RIMM is at 40 from 138.
By the way, I looked at all mutual funds performance of TIAA-CREF and MET-Life, all across the board down 40-55%, does n't matter what sector or diversification. Only Bonds and money markets are holding.
The question to every one, take a deep breathe and think, do you float may be diluted, or do you want to sink in BK
Two big issues, that will ultimately loom more important than autos, if they survive are these: DJ's are dead. Howard is the last superstar and there won't be another. How do you draw a national audience, with only local talent? Second, the satellites are a huge cost drawback that wireless internet will not face. No, I'm NOT referrring to internet radio, but the WHOLE internet!!!! For instance I get Rhapsody for about $9 a month. That's either streaming or downloadable for about .99 a single. On the streaming side though, I have playlists that are 30-40-50 songs long. If/when wirelsss were available in the car, I go to Rhapsody and I have my music available for hours. Not "internet radio" but MY music. What would Sirius add to that when wireless is available reliably in the car? Plus, I won't have to share the radio with my kids. They could stream a movie, while my wife does blogs or email. that's the whole point. Wireless internet in your car will be everything, not just music. Don't think it won't happen, because it's no more than 5-10 years away at most. Sat radio will not be able to compete at all.
Are you Sirius? We all would like to see this stock debt free and on the rise. But your view on the rev-split is alarming. You can't posibly be long and heavy in Sirius and vote yes for the RS. It serves no use. Are you sadistic? Do you like seeing others in pain?
Every Sirius boad has folks screeming no. Some people are so mad about the RS they are busting retail radios in the stores. Others are posting repeater locations to take Sirius off the air if RS happens. People are mad. (Don't ask for links. I will not permote violance)
Rev Split solves no problems and invites the shorts back. First correct the shorting bonds and fix the problem. Finance this debt like Mel said he would and truly can do. IMO, he is playing a power game on our heads.
If the deception theary is correct you will be next to lose.
I am tired and over reacting a bit.
But please vote No to the Rev Split.
Just a question for you... with no disrespect intended.... but when you sold all your shares last week did you then short the stock??? Would have been a good move to get some money back and now talking about the SP being in the teens and sub penny, sounds like a short players comment to me. If not you should have considered it because your explanations for how bad the company is now ,are just as strong as how good the company was before the proxy release. Your current comments though are filled with a lot of speculation of the company's financial position. We just don't know yet.
Believe me, I am not ignoring the silence or the Proxy Statement and the request for 8 Billion shares and a RS. I have put forth a scenario that is as plausible as any with Gekko13 last week but all anyone here wants to focus on is that Mel is a Crook and he lied to us. Another twenty pages of deduced examples is not going to convince me but I am sure there will be some that you can move.
Sirius Roadkill......
Since you are answering for Michael Hartlieb, why doesn't "HE" answer my question about including his concerns or additions in a timely manner under the rights granted him as a shareholder under SEC Rule14a-8, "Proposals of Security Holders". It is a simple question why so Secretive? Where's your transparency? Why deflect my question with another question? The question was directed to you not Mel. Your here soliciting support from shareholders why not let them know?
Also Sirius Roadkill.....
There is a 100M line not tapped from the satellite manufacturer, but you know this.
I am not posting these questions because I want to play "gottcha". I am as pissed as anyone else about the SP, th Silence and Lack of Transparency, but I believe that we are in the middle of a game of "Poker" with the credit markets and the "Shorts" and giving your hand away is never a good strategy.
You may be right about thew future of wireless,,,,,but it is not even on the radar of issues right now.......SIRI is in complete control of the auto industry......No other technology has agreements with any automakers. It takes YEARS to carry out plans with the auto's. contracts, design, implimentation, installation, planning at least 3 model years in the future......NOT TO MENTION,,,,the technology isn't even that developed yet.....
SIRI has contracts with almost EVERY automaker...The auto's have comitted and invested into SIRI just as much as SIRI depends on them.....The auto's are not just going to roll over to something different that easily......
By the way,,,your making that statement based on what SIRI looks like right now.....SIRI has plans we don't know about...I'm sure SATRAD technology will improve and include much more than just music as we know it now...
Besides,,,,5 years is an eternity away from where we are now,,,,,,,we're trying to get through the next 6 months.........
Stop trying to scare people with crap like that.............