OPEC to Cut Production at Friday Meeting, but Will Prices React?

OPEC’s emergency meeting is scheduled for Friday. Over the past 3 months, oil prices have fallen more than 50 percent! I think that it is worthwhile to revisit an oil chart that I posted earlier this week. Although they are expected to reduce production, they could actually cut by more than 1 million barrels given the velocity of the decline in oil prices.

As indicated by the following chart, it is important to remember that whenever there is a large drop in oil prices OPEC sweeps in to cut production, which then triggers a bottom in oil prices shortly thereafter.

Comments

[OilyGasMiner:]

Kathy if OPEC's actions is not collusion, I don't know what is. What happened to "free market forces"? Prices will sharply rise relatively to the current levels next week. As their meetings are always in favour of the cartels and NEVER for the retailer. Why would they care? They only want to fatten their pockets. My question is: how do we get back at them?

Canada's Petro Canad reported increase in profits by 61% and the stock has only moved 5%. There are MANY plays like this out there. And to STICK IT to these colluders, I propose taking advantage of the mass undervaluation in the market. But, a word of wisdom. 1) be slow to act, as actions will have lengthy repercussions. 2) conduct proper due diligence ( don't be afraid to call an analyst, or share your ideas with a friend. 3) don't lose money.

2008 Oct 23 10:48 AM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

Why not dismantle the EU, this is Collusion Personified. Opec or the Middle East has the right to prices its natural resources as it sees fit. I don't blame them for not wanting to Join the West in its downward spiral.

Why don't you Blame Canada for charging the same prices as Opec? Heck, they must be part of the Conspiracy and we import more from Canada than any other part of the world. Get Canada to reduce their prices.

2008 Oct 24 01:06 AM

[mangolfer:]

The cut seems like it's already priced into oil. OPEC keeps cutting and the US starts drilling and it will be a freefall to below $30....

2008 Oct 24 07:42 AM

[Ferdinand E...:]

I don't believe that the EU is Collusion Personified. The ignoramuses who voted themselves into that parasites club when they didn't have anything to gain should lay claim to that description. And yes, OPEC has the right to price their resources at any level they choose. Some day, in the business schools, some bird-brained professor might try to figure out why they allowed a barrel of oil to fall to a lower price than a barrel of coca-cola..

2008 Oct 24 08:26 AM

[Timothy Stolz:]

I have a hunch that MANGOLFER is right about the price of oil already having the OPEC cut "priced in" but I don't think the proverbial "floor" is at $63 US or about where crude oil is priced before the US markets open this morning.
OPEC is likely to form a that floor at about $75 US but it may take a few weeks to work through the excess oil inventory before we see that $75 per barrel.
While we wait for that floor price to firm, there are a lot of oil and gas issues "on sale" and today, Friday the 24th of October, may bode well for the short traders and bargain hunters in this sector.

2008 Oct 24 08:29 AM

[Marcus Aure...:]

OPEC is a cartel and they collude, how are we going to stop that?

Anyway, I think oil is getting close to finding a bottom, some analysts think with or without OPEC cutbacks, oil is overshooting its bottom right now and $70.00/barrel is about equilibrium. However, with the all the FUD about the future & the global economy, I expect to see demand die off and bring down oil prices.

The last time gasoline was at or under $1.00/gallon was when the Southeast Asian currency meltdown was underway.

2008 Oct 24 10:53 AM

[Paul Killinger:]

So oil is a cartel. I'm glad you finally figured this out.

I think we should follow the lead of the Democrats in Congress and sue them. I'm sure their friends the trial lawyers are chomping at the bit for this one. But they better find a way to collect up front (which I'm sure the Obama administration will support), because they're going to be a long time getting paid by OPEC.

2008 Oct 24 12:01 PM

[jt:]

And yet as some of you bash on OPEC (as though they don't have a right to do whatever they want) or EuroLand (actually just a party to what their bosses want), you seem to miss the elephant in the living room. We have no "free markets" NOT b/c of OPEC. We have no free markets b/c the oversight committee is part of those that have taken over the commodities markets with derivative trades.

Go look at JPMorgain4Elites and their derivatives book. They are more or less now the pseudoprivate/public trading face of the Fed as co-owners, and likely are impervious now to any fraud or criminal charges as they would probably claim "national interest.". They now have over $100 Trillion (yes with a "T") in derivative risk...and if you look farther, most of it is shorts against the entire commodities complex...they hold nearly 90% of the short position against gold and silver for instance on the CRIMEX.

The CFTC was set up to prevent such manipulative positions. They certainly have in the past made a big to-do about "long" manipulative positions, and there was one copper short that had to get religion quick as I recall, but o/w the CFTC has not only allowed it, but when it has been repeatedly pointed out that these short positions are manipulative to the max, have stated they looked into it and found NOTHING amiss. Kinda like a cop watching mafioso bullies beating up a shopowner who's trying to make an independent living w/o buying "protection" and reporting that he saw "business as usual"...nothing noteworthy.

JPM singlehandedly brot down NG futures and then hanged Amaranth out to dry with their long position on NG (esp after Amaranth doubled down their position). JPM then bought up their positions on the mega-cheap and actually hired some of their top people.

This is govt and Shadow govt bankster manipulation of markets. This isn't real world where little has changed in the supply / demand dynamics. And that goes for the entire commodities complex. This is the takedown before the election combined with the gangster banksters doing "everything at their disposal" ...as was stated by their Mafia head here in the States, Comrade HankyPanky Paulson...to keep the sheeple people from taking their money out of the stock market and dollars and putting into the only historical store and preserver of wealth: gold (and silver), esp as the financial system reveals its inner corruption and putrefication.

The rest is just the politicoeconomic MSM (mainstream media) farcical drama given to the sheep to keep them entertained and glued to their TVs while the banksters rob them blind.

jt

2008 Oct 24 01:27 PM

[Timothy Stolz:]

Whew! And all I wanted to know is where do you think the per barrel price of oil was headed, $75 maybe?

2008 Oct 24 02:31 PM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

You got me Tim. I have no bloody Idea. We are in a deflationary spiral: dollar up 25%, Commodities down 50%, import prices dropping.

We have to start Inflating. Otherwise, our stock market which is priced in Dollars will Tank just like the Nikkei has with a currency which is even stronger than the dollar's.

Oil is the only way I know of to inflate quickly across a broad spectrum. Please note that the stock market tends to rally when oil does.

The Fed and Treasury seem to have lost sight of the Big Picture. Housing prices have to stop falling. Deflation must end in this sector, how do you stop deflation? Reduce the value of the dollar. Coordinated rate cuts keep the status quo. Idiots.

2008 Oct 25 03:03 AM

[Ferdinand E...:]

Language-wise a beautiful comment jt, though not completely accurate of course. 100T in derivative risk: hmm, time for you to go to GOOGLE. But as for the part about keeping the sheep entertained and glued to their TVs, well, I don't see how any intelligent person could argue with that.

2008 Oct 25 04:18 AM