Inflation Expectations Plunge by 2% in Four Months

by: Mark J. Perry

The chart above shows the market-based 10-year TIPS-derived expected inflation from the Cleveland Fed, calculated from the difference between 10-year nominal treasury notes and 10-year treasury inflation-protected securities. On an adjusted basis (for an inflation-risk and liquidity premiums, see details here), inflation expectations fell to a six-year low of 1.44% yesterday, the lowest since September of 2002.

This is a huge drop in inflation expectations from 3.36% in June to only 1.44% today. Inflationary pressure is easing and deflating fast.