Bullish Energy Market Is Over, When Will it Begin Again?

Listen up, oil fans: It’s over. The glory days of this latest energy bull market are now in the history books. Or so says Peters & Co. Ltd., a brokerage specializing in oil and gas in Calgary. Oh, and that’s not even the bad news.

The report says:

Although the data points are few, the time period from the end of a major energy bull market to the start of the next can be lengthy, ranging from five years to 15 years.

The resiliency of Asian demand and the capital spending reactions of producers will dictate how quickly we reach a squeeze point on supply and demand for crude oil again, but the early indications are that it could be sooner rather than later.

“Is it different this time?” Tough call, but Peters’ thinks investors won’t have to sweat it out for a decade.

Until then, keep an eye on those soggy natural gas prices. With Old Man Winter banging on the door, they may prove to be “relatively more resilient,” with the possibility of prices spiking on cold snaps.

Peters’ top picks for gas weighted concerns are: EnCana Corp. (ECA), EOG Resources Inc. (EOG), NuVista Energy Ltd. (NUVSF.PK), ProEx Energy Ltd. (PXEYF.PK), Progress Energy Ltd. (PGN), Storm Energy Inc. (SCU), and Orleans Energy Ltd. (OEXFF.PK).

Comments

[a. palmer jr.:]

Whatever happened to my PWE and HTE?? When I bought these I envisioned great things in the future and now four months into ownership, it looks like these will end up like the rest of the stocks I've bought. Might as well have gone out and bought a new car with the money. At least I'd have a nice ride.

2008 Oct 25 11:53 AM

[frankinstein:]

ya got to put a stop/loss on any stock you buy my Friend

2008 Oct 25 12:03 PM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

Or, you can ride it out until 2011 getting paid more than you will anywhere else. Come 2011 they convert to Oil corporations. By then it will still be quite evident that the world needs oil to expand.

I'm sorry guys but in the next couple of years, oil production will decline because new, expensive tech to extract it from from the ground requires the expectation of much higher returns than are currently being factored into oil prices.

This will translate into less new oil and NG production than forecast when TBoone placed his big bet on CNG powered cars and his about to be defunct company.

CLNE Defunct? Lets see, TBoones Portfolio consisted of Oil, Oil, Oil and prices of his holdings went down further than the rest of the market. CLNE made Historical lows recently. What happened to the Obama/Pelosi connection? Financial credit crisis everywhere including GE's financial arm. TBoone's CLNE will have to fork up $3 Billion or more for Turbines ordered prior to the Kerplunk, delivery dates starting in about a year.

The Wind, Solar, Ethanol, other Alt. Energy companies have their own almost Fanatical followers. Everyone of them believes their Sectors are the ones who will receive orders and funding. From where, by whom and why?

Oil is going down, NG is going down. A Depression/Recession looms with the expectation of less energy use and all of them expect handouts to increase the amount of energy for whom?

When, not if, the economy recovers, the sector which recovers first will be Oil/NG. Asphalt, you know roads isn't a byproduct of Solar, NG, Wind, ethanol or even Biofuels. The thing about new construction, the rebuilding of infrastruction, The New Bill to stimulate our economy will not involve the new tech until the economy gets rolling again.

Oil will again move up but this time around the Move will be faster and higher because all of the New Tech investments were delayed, went Kerplunk or something else replaced them.

Believe me, Hundreds of thousands of new jobs will be needed but none of the aforementioned Tech is labor intensive. Money will be funnelled into areas that are until the next Energy Crisis hits but by then the fields will be strewn with the Bodies of more than a few of the Previous high flyers.

So sit, collect your monthly paycheck and wait or Buy something like PVX with its Pipeline which I personally believe will be converted into an MLP, like KMP or WMZ.

2008 Oct 25 12:56 PM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

I want to see what HTE's next Dividend wil be before I back it. They have started a massive debt reduction program expected to last til Oct. 2009. It will include taking about 10% of its units off the Market and various Bond Liabilities.

In light of this program, I'd want to see if they continue the current payout, and try to increase the capacity of their refinery by 50% at the same time.

Remember Canada, They are the single largest supplier of Oil/NG to the US. Selling us $60 oil is equivalent to $75 went converted back into the Loonie. We will stop/decrease oil imports from everywhere else first.

2008 Oct 25 01:09 PM

[ManAboutDallas:]

As I write these words, the US$ has just punched its way past $1.30 against the Loonie. Or, from the other end of the looking glass, the CnD$ is now $.77 in Helicopter Ben money.

These sorts of temporary dislocations are the ".... tides in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, lead on to fortune".

Combine the US$ surge with the collapse of Canadian junior E&P's due to the oil price decline, and the whole Great White North is looking like Bargain Basement Fire Sale at Filene's.

2008 Oct 27 09:35 PM