With the recent decline in U.S. markets over fiscal cliff worries, a lot of stocks appear to be on sale. Some names have seen some rather dramatic falls lately, while others just have declined with the market. Today, I will cover five names that analysts believe have a great deal of upside. Each of these names has more than 40% upside to the current average analyst price target. I'll discuss the positives and negatives with each name, discussing what could get them to that target, and what could prevent them. As a further note, all five names have an average analyst rating that imply either a buy or strong buy.
Shares of the footwear retailer are trading close to a 52-week low currently. Crocs shares fell more than 21% after the quarter's revenue miss, and guidance was a little light. The company blamed the Olympics for poor sales in Europe. Shares have fallen another 6% since then.
Investors looking for a bounce in Crocs point to the fact that estimates have come down tremendously. When estimates get too low, it increases the chance that the company could surprise. Crocs has done best in the past when expectations are low. The company guided to break even earnings on revenues of $220 million for Q4. Current estimates call for $219.86 million in revenues and break even earnings. However, as analysts continue to revise their forecasts, expectations could likely come down. Crocs currently trades for less than 8 times next year's expected earnings, and that is for a company expected to grow revenues at roughly 12% this year and next, and earnings at about the same pace over that period. Crocs won't be discounting as many products this year in an attempt to showcase new products. That could help margins.
The risks for Crocs are out there as well. First, the company has had a hard time meeting revenue expectations lately, which has led many bears to call this name a fad. Crocs had a huge rise during 2006 and 2007 while times were good, but when things started turning against them, the stock plunged. Shares rebounded after the recession but have since peaked about 16 months ago. Crocs has done best when everyone counts it out, and right now, most are.
The current analyst picture is as follows. 2 analysts have strong buy recommendations, 4 have buys, 3 holds, and one underperform. The average rating is a 2.4, implying a slight to moderate buy. The mean price target is $20.57, with the median at $20. The price targets range from $18 to $28.
The Chinese internet giant hit a 52-week low on Friday as concerns that Qihoo's (QIHU) search engine is a legitimate threat to Baidu. Baidu shares fell almost 11% on the week and are down almost 19% since the latest earnings report.
Despite all of the negativity, Baidu still maintained 73% market share in October. Also, Baidu is still growing at an exceptionally quick pace. In 2012, Baidu is forecast to grow revenues at nearly 54% and earnings per share at 57%. In 2013, the company is expected to grow revenues by another 36% and earnings per share by 27%. With current expectations, Baidu is trading at 15.34 times next year's earnings. That's only a 10% premium to U.S. giant Google (GOOG), and if you take out the Motorola acquisition, Google is only growing at about 1/2 the pace of Baidu.
The risks to Baidu are obvious, and they start with increased competition. If Qihoo is a legitimate challenger, Baidu will lose market share in the coming years. However, Qihoo only expects to capture about 15-20% of the market, so Baidu will still maintain a large share. The other large issue Baidu faces is China's slowing growth. Baidu has grown much faster in recent years, with China growing faster as well. Any continued slowdown in China's growth will have an impact on Baidu.
Baidu analysts are still very positive on the name. 10 analysts maintain strong buy recommendations, with 13 having buys, against only 5 holds and one underperform. The average rating is a 2.1, implying a moderate buy. The mean and median price targets are $141.32 and $144, respectively, with a range of $82 to $193.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR):
Green Mountain shares have been one of the biggest losers over the last year or so. A bunch of quarterly disappointments, guidance takedowns, the Einhorn short presentation, and questions over the relationship with Starbucks (SBUX) have all knocked down the stock. Green Mountain shares rallied off their lows after the last earnings report, and they will be looking to answer their critics when they report in the next couple of weeks.
What are the positives for this name? Well, the company is still expected to grow in the low 40s, percentage wise, for revenues this year (which ended in September) and in the high teens next fiscal year. That's without the company really having any international business, outside of Canada. Green Mountain's expansion into new markets could provide another huge revenue boost going forward. The second positive is the company's plan to buy back $500 million worth of shares over the next two years. When the plan was announced, the market cap was around $2.4 billion, so it looked like an incredible buyback. We'll start to see how effective it is soon. The third point bulls focus on is valuation. Green Mountain trades at just 9.8 times expected fiscal 2013 non-GAAP earnings, and most of those analyst estimates might not even take into account the buyback. A growth name trading at a low valuation, when you consider the buyback, seems rather nice to those that are bullish. Also, since the stock is heavily shorted, good news could send this stock rocketing higher if shorts start to cover quickly.
But this is not a company without flaws. The company's accounting methods have always been questioned. Those 40% plus and high teens growth numbers are down from 95% in the prior year. Growth is definitely slowing. The company has also had some issues with manufacturing, so margins have been compressed. Also, there is always the cloud of Starbucks hanging over them. Is Starbucks a competitor or a friend, it sometimes is hard to tell. This is also a company that has had trouble lately meeting revenue targets, and another big revenue miss would probably more than outweigh any positives from a buyback.
Overall, 3 analysts have strong buy recommendations, 4 have buys, 6 have holds, and one has a sell. The average rating is a 2.4, which implies a slight buy. But the mean and median price targets are $36.60 and $35.50, respectively, representing almost 50% upside from here. The range is $25 to $60.
SodaStream is another one of the momentum names that has been widely debated in recent years. Is the company's product a fad or are they really making a move in the beverage industry? Well, if you look at their results, including their most recent quarter, you might think that they are here to stay.
SodaStream's growth story is definitely in place for the foreseeable future. The company has worked really hard over the past two years to expand their U.S. footprint. During 2013, the company expects to finish a new factory, which will increase the amount of product they can produce. That should help with their proposed expansion into China and India. In 2014, they expect to enter U.S. grocery and drug stores. I recently saw the new SodaStream TV commercial, and it does an excellent job of showing what the brand is all about. SodaStream is growing rapidly, and could pass $500 million in revenues for 2013, after just $289 million in 2011.
Like Crocs, many bears argue that the company's product is a fad. There are those out there that try the soda machine and like it, but just stop using it over time. Being a fad is certainly an issue, and when those concerns hit during 2011, the stock went from $70 to $30 very quickly. Political risk is also an issue, with multiple plants located in Israel and the West Bank. Continued violence in the region is always a risk. The final risk is the value proposition. With the average SodaStream product costing about 25 cents per can (12 fluid oz.), some consumers can find their favorite brand sodas for cheaper, and that doesn't include the cost of the machine. Some consumers don't find it worth it buying an $80 machine just to try the product, which they may not like, when they already love their brand sodas.
When it comes to the analyst community, SodaStream is viewed in a positive light. 4 analysts have strong buy recommendations, 3 have buys, and 2 have holds. The overall rating is a 1.8, implying a moderate to slightly strong buy. The mean and median price targets are $48.83 and $49, implying a ton of upside from Friday's close of $33.55. The range is $40 to $60. As I've noted in past articles, SodaStream shares generally find a bottom in the low $30s, and that has been a good entry point in recent history.
The recent fall in Apple shares has been quite dramatic. Apple has fallen more than 25% from its 52-week high above $705, closing Friday at $527.68. It has been a dramatic fall that has wiped out over $160 billion in market cap and really dragged down the tech sector. With the stock falling so much, the average analyst price target for Apple now represents nearly 45% upside in the name, and many expected Apple to be closer to that target now than to $500.
There are still several reasons to own this name. The iPhone is still selling well, the iPad is selling well, and the new mini iPad will definitely be a hot item this holiday season. Apple also has become a bit of a value name recently, with the company recently starting to buy back some shares, and a dividend yield now at 2%. I recently explained some good reasons why Apple has fallen so much, because some investors just don't understand Apple's math. For instance, when Apple guided to $52 billion in revenues for the current fiscal Q1 that represented just 12.2% growth over last year's period. But when you normalize last year's quarter, which was 14 weeks and not the usual 13, Apple's guidance implies 20.9% growth. That number represents a bit more growth, and with Apple usually providing conservative guidance, Apple could see revenue growth closer to 25%. Apple is still expected to grow revenues by nearly 24% this year (ending next September) and 15% in the following fiscal year. Also, the company trades at just 10.5 times this year's expected earnings, and that's before subtracting out the huge cash position. The valuation seems just to low right now for a company still growing quite well.
But Apple is not without risk, even after the 25% drop. The company's gross margin forecast for the quarter was disappointing. New products have carried higher costs, and the company will be taking on extra expenses, like faster shipping, to get products to consumers faster. Apple's gross margins could fall 10 full percentage points or more over those from just three quarters ago. Also, competition is growing, both in the phone and tablet space, which is mostly the reason for Apple having to launch a mini iPad. Google has certainly beefed up their presence with the Motorola Mobility acquisition, and yes, Blackberry 10 is coming in a few months. There are also those that question this company under the leadership of Tim Cook, believing that the best days of this company are behind us after the loss of Steve Jobs.
The Analyst Picture.
The following table shows the current upside projected by analysts, as well as the average rating.