Favoring Reversal Pattern Off Earnings-Driven After-Hours Trade, Longs See Better History

| About:, Inc. (CRM) (NYSE:CRM) is set to report its Q3 results in tonight's after-hours. Analysts polled by Capital IQ expect earnings of $0.32 per share on revenue of $776.5 million.

CRM favors a reversal trend between the bells following its after-hours earnings reports, narrowing or reversing 18 times and widening 14 times in next-day trade following its last 32 extended-hours earnings reports.

Looking deeper into the performance data, CRM has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 17 of the 32 quarters MidnightTrader has tracked, reversing direction in next-day trade in 11 of those events, or nearly 65% of the time.

On the plus-side, the stock just favors widening between the sessions when it records earnings-driven after-hours gains, which it has done in 15 of the 32 quarters we've followed. Of those 14, the stock has widened eight times and reversed direction seven times.

  • On August 23, 2012, CRM declined 5.6% in after-hours trade after beating on Q2 but setting its Q3 earnings view just below expectations. The stock reversed direction the next day, ending the August 24 regular session with a 1.2% gain.
  • On May 17, 2012, CRM gained 8.3% in night trade after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock firmed higher the next day, advancing 8.8% in the May 18 regular session.
  • On February 23, 2012, CRM advanced 10.6% in after-hours trade after beating on Q4 and setting mixed guidance. It narrowed its gains slightly the next day, ending the February 24 regular session up 9%.
  • On November 17, 2011, CRM dropped 7.1% in evening trade despite topping expectations. The stock moved deeper in the red the next day, closing the November 18 regular session off 10%.
  • On August 18, 2011, CRM advanced 3% in night trade after beating on Q2 revenue, meeting on EPS, and setting guidance mostly in-line to above the Street view. The stock lost its upside the following day, closing the August 19 regular session down 2.6%.
  • On May 19, 2011, the stock rose 7.3% after an earnings and guidance beat. Shares just topped that result the following day, finishing up 7.9%.
  • On February 24, 2011, CRM gained 8.6% in evening trade after posting higher-than-expected Q4 results and setting mixed guidance. It lost a good chunk of its upside the following day, closing the February 25 regular session up 3.3%.
  • On November 18, 2010, CRM advanced 8.8% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations and setting in-line guidance for Q4. The stock surged higher the following day, closing the November 19 regular session up 18.1%.
  • On August 19, 2010, CRM advanced 7.4% in evening trade after posting better-than-expected Q2 results. The stock rocketed higher the next day, closing the August 20 regular session up 17%.
  • On May 20, 2010, CRM fell 4.3% in after-hours trade despite meeting Q1 EPS views and topping on sales. It predicted FY sales would meet or beat expectations. Shares, though, reversed those losses and ended the next day's regular session up 5.3%.
  • On February 24, 2010, CRM rose 2.1% in evening trade after beating Q4 estimates and offering strong Q1 and FY11 EPS guidance. However, the next day, the stock failed to build on those gains. Instead, the stock fell 2% in regular trade.
  • On November 17, 2009, the stock fell 4.1% after a Q3 revenue beat but mixed guidance. Shares declined a slimmer 3% the next day.
  • On August 20, 2009, the stock advanced 8.1% during evening trading after beating the revenue estimate and raising its outlook. Shares jumped 16.2% the next day.
  • On May 21, 2009, CRM shed 7.8% in after-hours trade after meeting Q1 revenue expectations and cutting its FY2010 revenue outlook. The stock slumped a deeper 8.8% in the May 22 regular session.
  • On February 25, 2009, CRM advanced 5% in after-hours trade after beating Q4 estimates. The stock narrowed its gains significantly the next day, ending up 1.6% in the February 26 regular session.
  • On November 20, 2008, the stock gained 3.1% after beating with Q3 results but offering mixed guidance. The stock fell 2.2% the next day.
  • On August 20, 2008, the stock fell 7.3% after the company guides mostly in line. The loss swelled to 18.4% the next day.
  • On May 21, 2008, the stock fell 0.6% during evening trading after beating by a penny with Q1 EPS. Shares rebounded to gain 5.8% the next day.
  • On February 27, 2008, the stock gained 9.6% during evening trading after reporting strong Q4 results. The stock jumped 17.1% the next day.
  • On November 15, 2007, the stock eased 0.6% during evening trading after CRM reported ahead of the Street with Q3 sales and guides for sales in line to above. The stock rebounded to gain 12.9% the next day.
  • On August 15, 2007, shares edged up 0.7% in evening trading after CRM said Q2 topped the year-ago period but updated guidance is mixed. The stock fell 3.6% the next day.
  • On May 16, 2007, CRM slipped 1.2% in night trade despite topping Q1 sales estimates. Shares lost more ground the next day, closing the regular session down 5%.
  • On February 21, 2007, CRM dropped 4.5% in the evening session after beating Q4 sales estimates but forecasting Q1 sales in line to below expectations. Shares recovered a bit the next day, ending the regular session down 1.4%.
  • On November 15, 2006, CRM shed 2.3% in night trade after just topping Q3 sales estimates but forecasting Q4 sales to be in line to below expectations. Shares trimmed their losses the next day, closing the regular session down 1%.
  • On August 16, 2006, CRM surged 12.3% in after-hours trading after the company beat on Q2 and set guidance mostly in-line to higher. The stock added to its upside in the August 17 regular session, rising 19% by the closing bell.
  • On May 17, 2006, the stock fell 3.2% in the evening hours after reporting ahead of the Street with Q1 results but guiding lower. The loss grew to 5% the next day.
  • On February 22, 2006, CRM dropped 4.3% in night trade after missing Q4 sales estimates but meeting on earnings. The company also forecasted Q1 sales below Street views. However, the shares recovered some of their losses the next day and ended the regular session down 1.1%.
  • On November 16, 2005, shares fell 2.4% on the release of figures showing Q3 revenue of $82.7 million, above the First Call consensus estimate of $80 million. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share were $0.05, a penny above the FC mean. The company upped its full-year guidance. Shares recovered to post an 8.5% gain the following day.
  • On August 17, 2005, CRM tumbled 11.5% after Q2 results matched Street targets and it guided Q3 in line to lower. It slid only 8.4% in the August 18 regular session.
  • On May 18, 2005, CRM jumped 7.9% after topping Q1 expectations and raising its FY06 outlook. It found more upside in the May 19 regular session, surging 11.7%.
  • On November 17, 2004, CRM dropped 5.4% despite besting Q3 estimates and issuing in-line FY05 guidance. Traders hammered the stock in next-day trade, and it plummeted 14.4% in the November 18 regular session.
  • On August 19, 2004, CRM fell 3.2% after posting in-line Q2 results. It reversed course and climbed 3.5% in the August 20 regular session.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.