Safe Haven Investments: Imminent Danger and Opportunities

When people see danger in the market, their natural response is to liquidate everything and move everything into cash in order to ride out the storms. The conventional wisdom is "Cash is King." However, conventional wisdom doesn't work anymore, as this is unconventional time. If you are fully loaded in cash or U.S. Treasury Bonds, this news, first noted by Karl Denninger, should completely shock you out of your shell:

According to an October 19 article in Investment News, $2.29 Trillion Dollars US Treasury Bonds Failed To Deliver.

Note that it is $2.29 TRILLION, with a T for Trillion! I never heard that one could short U.S. Treasury Bonds, let alone naked shorting of U.S. T-Bonds! The T-Bonds are considered some of the safest investments, with the full faith and credit of the U.S. government guaranteeing the principal, and you get an interest payment. So shorting U.S. T-Bonds is virtually guaranteed to lose money, as you will have to pay back the principal plus the interest. You do NOT short U.S. T-Bonds, let alone naked shorting, let alone as much as $2.29 Trillion.

That is UNLESS you are a really BIG player and you clearly see imminent danger of the collapse of the U.S. T-Bonds, and of the U.S. dollar, itself. I have previously written that Warren Buffett saw extreme danger in U.S. Treasury Bonds, and as a result,  was completely out of the bonds and fully into the equities market. Of course, people should respect and follow this person’s wisdom. However, small potatoes like Warren Buffett could not have naked shorted $2.3 Trillion U.S. T-Bonds. Someone much bigger, and who knows this market better, did it. I will not speculate, but read Karl Benninger's comment, in order to gain some insight into the matter.

Money created out of thin air is NOT King! The current Kings are precious metals. Never mind the fact that the dollar staged a shocking rally and precious metals plummeted. The dollar rally is nothing but a bubble, while current precious metal prices, especially platinum and palladium, is nothing but absurdity. Physical commodities MUST be priced above their production cost, or the supply will simply dry out, as no one can continue to produce metals at a loss. So, if I am sitting on my precious metals, I am pretty much guaranteed that they will soon appreciate in terms of real purchasing power. On the other hand, if you are sitting on trillions of dollars of the fiat currency, and the currency falls, the only guarantee you will have is they will continue to fall further down, until eventually, they reach zero.

The general market always manages to fool most people most of the time, and causes more people to lose more money in unexpected ways. It only rewards the select few who have the wisdom and the determination to stick to their wisdom. The current global crisis necessarily means an astronomical amount of fortune must be totally wiped out. What could be a better, cleaner and quicker way of wiping out trillions of dollars of fortune instantly, than to first herd the sheep into holding nothing but cash, and then having the currency suddenly collapse? Of course, the U.S. dollar rallies big time if everyone is herded into buying dollars. A bubble is something pumped up to a valuation much higher than where it should be.

Fiat money is completely at odds with the economy basics of supply and demand. For anything physical, equilibrium can be reached as the price impacts positively on supply and negatively on demand. Higher price encourages more production while low price suppresses the supply. When the price falls below cost, supply dries up as no one can continue to produce and sell something at loss. On the demand side, the price has exactly the opposite effect. High price suppresses demand while low price encourages consumption.

Fiat money acts in exactly the opposite way. The less valuable a currency becomes, the more is being produced out of thin air. The cheaper the currency becomes, the less people desire to own and keep it, and the faster people want to get rid of it. When people want to get rid of their paper money as fast as possible, it speeds up the velocity of money, and causes the value of the currency to plummet even more, forcing the government to print more money. The vicious cycle continues until the currency is totally destroyed. Throughout the history of civilization, every single experiment of fiat currency has failed. There are no exceptions.

In Chinese, the word CRISIS contains two characters, DANGER and OPPORTUNITY. We are in extreme danger but also with extremely good investment opportunities. The opportunities are made even better because everyone runs away from them and runs towards a gigantic death trap with a sign "Cash Is King." Remember one thing; safe havens must be small, with narrow spaces that accommodate only a few refugees.

It reminds me of the Bible story of Noah's Ark. People ridiculed Noah as he was building his ark, though it had never rained a single drop for a year, how could the flood come? The flood did come as Noah expected. Had these people listened to Noah and sought refuge in his Ark, would it hamake a difference? No! Noah's Ark was still only big enough to contain just one pair of each kind of animals. It wouldn't be a Noah's Ark if it was made any bigger. Likewise, today's financial safe haven wouldn't be a safe haven, but a death trap if it was big enough to allow everyone in!

Although we do not see a drop of rain yet, trillion dollars of wealth will soon be flushed away by the coming financial flood of hyperinflation. Have you built your Noah's Ark yet? There is definitely NOT enough material to build a big enough Noah's Ark to save everyone.

I can't understand it! There are tons of investment opportunities in commodities right now. You can buy a few metric tons of nickel or copper or cobalt or a number of other things. You know they are priced far below their production cost right now. Therefore, it is absolutely a guarantee they must appreciate to at least the fair price of their cost. Can you find any better investment, with such absolute certainty of making double, triple and quadruple the money in the next few months, regardless of the demand? How could people be so blind and not see the opportunities? They all rush to cash and T-Bonds waiting to be slaughtered, and they actually thought it was safe to be with the biggest group of mobs?

Nickel is now less than 1/6 its May 2007 price. Hello?

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH! When enough is enough, the eruption is fierce!

On Monday, the third largest nickel producer in Russia, Ufaleynickel, which is responsible for slightly less than 1% of global supply, announced that it was shutting down production, because the price of nickel is just too low. The company needs to see at least $26,000 per metric ton in order to break even.

Instantly nickel shot up to touch $5.00 a pound, from Friday's $4.00. That's a 25% rally in just one day, and probably the biggest one-day rally of any commodity in history. Removing 1% of the global supply doesn't really change supply/demand that much. However, the price was suppressed too much so the bounce had to be fierce. Had you bought nickel at $4, you have made 25% profit in just a day. People are still rushing to buy U.S. T-Bonds to earn 3% annual interest while waiting to be slaughtered in the looming implosion of the bonds market.

Do you want to make a 10-fold return in two months, and maybe two weeks? Then, buy some palladium metal - any palladium metal you can find. Once the Russian Checkmate plays out, the price of Palladium could go from $170 per ounce to $1700 per ounce in no time,

The Russian Checkmate event will be if Norilsk Nickel (NILSY.PK) shuts down production. It is the No. 1 nickel producer in Russia. The number 3 producer has already shut down production. Would No. 1 be far away? If Norilsk shuts down, and 45% of global palladium supply is gone, I can't even start to predict where palladium price could go up to, with 45% of supply removed instantly. In 2000/2001, one false rumor from Russia was enough to send palladium up to $1100. It would be fun to watch the effect of 45% of palladium supply removed.

Of course, you can get better leveraged gain investing in the palladium stock Stillwater Mining (SWC) and North American Palladium (PAL).

Will Norilsk shut down? It is facing a severe liquidity squeeze. In first half of 2008, Norilsk group reported a profit of $2.682B, at 32% profit margin. If you look up metal prices as of Oct. 24, 2008, and re-run the numbers, the company would have to write down -$4.594B of sales revenue for the whole group, or $3.634B for the main Norilsk Mine, resulting in heavy losses. The cash drain will be nearly $2B per half year.

The Norilsk group had $4.8B cash as of end of June 2008. The main Norilsk mine probably had $4B in cash. The company spent $2B in a recent stock buyback, a senseless decision that Mr. Mikhail Prokhorov denounced as "capable of putting the company on the verge of bankruptcy." Operation loss since June probably costs them another $1B. The company has a debt payment of $400M due in November. Does it have any cash left? Can it continue to operate the mine at heavy loss? Why would the company continue to operate with heavy losses until bankruptcy?

The bullish case for palladium cannot be disputed if you understand just how bad Norilsk Nickel's shape is today.

Monday's news of Ufaleynickel shut down mentioned OM Group (OMG)  and reminded me that OMG is the best cobalt play, because it dominates the chemical sector involving cobalt. I consider cobalt as a better metal to buy than silver, with the potential of 10-fold appreciation in a short period of time. Check out news on Minor Metals. If the speculation of Katanga Mining shut down plays out, cobalt price should fly soon. You can buy cobalt from BHP Billiton (BHP).

There are so many beaten down silver and gold mining shares now. All are very good buys: Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS), Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI), Apex Silver Mines Inc. (SIL), Hecla Mining Co. (HL), Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY), Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN), and NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG). There are so many to name. Even Southern Copper (PCU), my very first commodity play, is now back below where I first bought in late 2005. These days, anything in mining is good. I would not touch Silver Wheaton (SLW) though, because of counter party risks. Also, forget about any coal player now. I continue to call for selling James River Coal Company (JRCC), Arch Coal Inc. (ACI), Alpha Natural Resources Inc.  (ANR), Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU), or CONSOL Energy Inc. (CNX), at any rally.

The U.S. coal market is a local market and is now bearish. Watch Dry Ships' (DRYS) share movement, as it is an important indicator of the health of the global economy. I might even consider buying some DRYS stock as the valuation has become so attractive. However, I first need to get a conformation that cross-ocean shipping activity is recovering.

I will keep a portion of my portfolio in iShares Silver Trust (SLV). I will not buy gold or SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). I believe gold is adequately priced at current level. The money spent on gold is better spent on something else. Even buying a ton of nickel or copper is better than gold.

However, the best of all is still palladium, and the only two pure palladium plays, SWC and PAL. We are witnessing a singularity event unfolding in the palladium market, as Norilsk Nickel will inevitably shut down, to protect its own best interest. What is singularity? A singularity is the kind of extreme that you get when you try to divide a number by zero!

Full Disclosures: The author is heavily invested in SWC, PAL, has considerable stake in OMG and SLV, and will continue to buy some select silver shares including SSRI, HL, PAAS and SIL. I am also looking for opportunity to buy DRYS soon.

 

Comments

[Alex Filonov:]

Good luck with metals. Yes, palladium is way too cheap, but it just might happen that Russians are dumping it on the market. Norilsk Nickel played dollar carry trade and lost. They can't shut down production, because it's already sold by long term contracts. They can't even reduce production, because they need every dollar of liquidity they can get.

As for platinum, only some breakthrough in fuel cell technology can save it. Long term price is no more than 1.4 of gold and sometimes it goes below gold. So, even at $800 it's not that cheap.

2008 Oct 28 03:32 PM

[Mark Anthony:]

Muddling:
I looked at your blog. You seems to be a serious stock trader wanting to make money, not a basher. So all I want to tell you is each and every statement you made above is wrong and not logical. Use your brain, think logically, do your research, you might get a better conclusion. Read my past articles to understand the background of the palladium market. It's good to ask hypothetical questions but it's even better if you can draw logical conclusions. Good luck!

2008 Oct 28 05:00 PM

[Cleopatra:]

Well said Georealist. Personally, it looks to me like gold and silver and oil are going to return to the marginal cost of production. Should be around $7 for silver and $50 for oil. I recently looked over the last few 10-Q and conference calls for Apex (Sil). They have serious cash needs and no way to meet them. Looks to me as if the company is going to go bankrupt with the common stock wiped out. Sounds like roulette without the free drinks.

2008 Oct 29 12:12 AM

[User 287863:]

Dear Mr. Anthony,

thanks for your interesting analyses. Despite plenty of informations brought by your articles, I have some complementary questions for you:

1. North American Pal is suspending its production at Lac des Iles since today (29 of October). When and how much do you think this temporaly shut down will affect the spot market ?

2. Concerning the general supply destruction occuring now, if I have good understood, we should then expect a kind of counter-shock where the prices of paladiuml will skyrocketing. But how long do you think it will last before it goes down again ?

3. When you speak about the closure of Norilsk, why do you expect that the entire production would be shut down and not only part of it ?

Thank you in advance for answering theses questions,

Fab

2008 Oct 29 02:40 AM

[SeeTheLight:]

Mark has been prognosticating a V-shaped recovery for precious metals (except gold) for a long time.

A slightly less wordy summary of his opinion is that "supply" will over contract (in the shape of mines discontinuing operations) in response to reduced demand, thus creating a fast recovery for palladium and other metal prices.

But his logic is simply flawed. If metal prices did skyrocket against falling demand what would happen? Well the companies (automakers) are already losing money hand over fist since consumers are severely cutting back on automotive purchases, do you think that if they have to add in the additional costs of palladium will not either result in greater losses or higher prices for already unwanted cars?

The demand destruction is the real story, the supply is contracting in response, even if it over corrects it is not going to shoot up. Sure some companies may win out, but the metal will be mined to meet the reduced demand appropriately, whether by Norilsk or its replacement. A supply driven bubble is not realistic to anyone who doesn't have rose coloured glasses.

Personally, I think PAL and SWC will go up long term, but no where near what Mark prognostications imply. There are better recovery plays than these stocks.

2008 Oct 29 04:46 AM

[mauldin0495:]

commodity is extremely cyclical. getting into commodity base on cheapness strategy will not work. better wait it to bottom out and start to climb before getting in.

2008 Oct 29 08:15 AM

[firboy4:]

Though I am also heavily invested in commodities, I must agree with the other people commenting. I came away from this article with a feeling of someone pumping stocks that they own, mostly due to the fact that the article is simply way too long. "Methinks she doth protest too much" comes to mind.

Having said that, I will keep in mind what was written anyway and remain hopeful that Mark is at least correct in a general way, though I also believe prices won't jump tenfold. As Mark likes to say, "Hello!" We are in a recession, which we all know means lower demand for just about everything! I see commodities, hopefully copper, coming up gradually, very gradually. And I do believe there are some great deals in commodities now, but I wouldn't expect any quick profits, just some solid, long term investments.

2008 Oct 29 08:59 AM

[blackhorse:]

Get to the point and save all of the self promoting statements and comments for a Craig's List personal rant. I would be interested in reading your opinion and supporting facts rather than trying to "sift" it out of so much clutter.

I agree with "SeeTheLight". Demand is the key to these investments. Both real need and that generated by large institutional buyers has been driving and in some cases over driving the valuation of commodities of all types. Welcome to a world of over hyped highs, and more drastic lows. The bottom line is that at the current state of the world economy, demand is off.

Blackhorse

2008 Oct 29 10:09 AM

[Alex Filonov:]

To author: I'd rather like to know which of my statements are wrong.

1. Norilsk Nickel did play dollar carry trade. They borrowed billions of dollars from Western banks and used them to buy companies and buy back own shares. Current financial situation of the company is not good, to put it mildly. If you don't believe me, just do quick Google search.

2. Until 2000, price of platinum was close to the price of gold. Fast growth after that can be attributed to the EU laws requiring clean cars, which means catalyst converters using platinum or palladium. Price jump in the beginning of this year was caused by production shortages in South Africa. Now, when car production in US (and probably in EU as well) is falling off the cliff, who is going to consume that platinum and palladium? So far, platinum price returned to the long term trend, close to the price of gold. To have it go higher you need some new industrial use of platinum group metals. Fuel cells can be that, but for the fact that they are about 3 years to mass production for the last 10 years.

3. Long term palladium price trend (you can get it here: www.platinum.matthey.c..., as well as platinum) tells me that in normal conditions, palladium price should be between $200 and $300. But these are not normal times: car production is way down and Norilsk Nickel, the biggest palladium producer, is squeezed for cash. As for PAL, It doesn't look good. If they have to close mines at prices below $200, can they survive at all?

2008 Oct 29 11:37 AM

[physicist:]

Mark, I agree with you. Palladium is the greatest investment opportunity I have discovered so far. Especially the palladium coins, they were usually sold out just in a single day!

2008 Oct 29 12:12 PM

[Paulo:]

For someone who claims to be heavily invested in PAL it is surprising that you seem oblivious to the fact that it was announced at least a week ago that production would cease and that some 340 workers would be laid off. Further, the shares precipitously declined by half before that announcement!!
Will PAL go bust? No, they have cash (which is why I bought) and have a new CEO from Barrick with a mandate to do acquisitions.
But PAL is dead capital until the next bubble(s).

2008 Oct 29 12:41 PM

[User 30121:]

Mark, you are starting to freak me out! One article is a lucid, sane account with logical opinions, the next, a rant without end. Please, no more nickel or paladium articles (or references to them) for awhile, puhleeeeeze?

2008 Oct 29 05:19 PM

[jafdc:]

This guy is an idiot. How does this get to be one of the 'Most Popular Articles' on Seeking Alpha? Someone needs to work on their algorithms.

2008 Oct 29 09:46 PM

[Mark Anthony:]

Paulo:
Do I not know PAL has temporarily shut down production? I personally contacted PAL repeatedly in the past two months to urge them to shut down production and turn around to buy cheap palladium from spot market. They decision to shut down pleased me more than anything else. Read my past articles.

SeeTheLight:
Is it going to be a V-shaped or L-shaped recovery? Nickel went from $4 to $5.86, a raise of 46.5% in three trade days. Obviously it's a 'V" for Victory, not a 'L' for loser. Do you want a V or L?

User287863:
If Norilsk Nickel shuts down, it does not just shut down nickel production, but it will shut down all metals. All the metals are produced together from the same mineral ore. It is very late in the mining process, in the refining process, that metals finally separate from one another.

Muddling:

I encourage you to do more due diligence research. My past articles can be good start as they contains lots of links to relevant information. Mid to long term, palladium is super bullish due to factors both on the tight supply side, and on the emerging demand side. Short term set back does not reflect the supply/demand dynamics, but is merely a result of liquidity squeeze. Industry users forced to sell their precious metal inventory to raise cash for regular operations. They have to buyback.

Today's news, GM global auto sale down 10% year over year. GM should be one of the worst performing auto makers. So globally maybe overall auto demand is down 5%. Consider auto demand is 50% of PGM metals demand, that slash away just 2.5%, which is not very significant. Tightening environment requirement means more PGM metals will be used in each vehicle. This increased loading MORE THAN compensates the drop of total vehicles sold.

Ever increasing popularity of hybrid vehicles like Prius also means MORE PGM consumption. That's because frequence shut-down and re-start of the main engine of hybrid vehicles means the vehicle will operate at cold start temperature more often. When temperature is lower, the catalytic converter needs to contain much more PGM metals to be effective enough to meet EPA requirements.

I am absolutely super bullish on palladium. I do NOT hold on and pump my favorite palladium stocks just because I hold them and I want to get even. There are lots of excellent silver and gold stocks beaten down to very attractive prices. I should and would have jumped ship if I do not believe palladium is the most bullish precious metal of all. The bullish arguments simply can not be disputed.

2008 Oct 29 10:56 PM

[fred mcgill...:]

The Ark contained:
2 You shall take with you seven each of every clean animal, a male and his female; two each of animals that are unclean, a male and his female; 3 also seven each of birds of the air, male and female, to keep the species alive on the face of all the earth.

2008 Oct 30 04:25 AM

[Rob Goldpalm:]

Seeking Alpha has finally reached the level of the Yahoo Finance
Message Boards. Congratulations!

2008 Oct 30 08:45 AM

[Mark Anthony:]

Fred:
Thanks for the clarification. I meant to use Noah's Ark for an analogy, without elaborate the details.
I read "...and God resolved that he would never again curse the ground because of man, nor destroy all life on it in this manner. Man in turn was instructed never to eat any animal which had not been drained of its blood"
Wonder why all the red meat sold in grocery stores do not have their blood properly drained and they hence taste foul, betraying the Christian tradition. In China, a country without much Christian tradition, people care a big deal that blood of any slaughtered animal must be completely drained or they would not buy. It's also the tradition of many cultures. Just an interesting fact.
I shall read the Noah's Ark story again.

2008 Oct 30 11:00 AM

[MDM:]

Mr Anthony you are absolutely correct about Norilsk palladium being separated in the final refining process. It is released in the electrofining process in the form of "slimes". Very interesting reading your comments on SWC Have a fine day. MDM

2008 Oct 30 11:16 AM

[beabaggage:]

The government should buy SWC and PAL as a strategic investment to secure supply. close the mines, then we have Fort Knox north with PAL/PLAT stored. I think CN will start some sort of rescue or incentive plan for the mines to thwart the closings because it is going to crush these small mining towns if they all start closing. Maybe bridge loans at no interest or storage arrangements or something.
But what will really probably happen is someone is going to buy up PAL and/or SWC for cheap. Would be petty cash for Gold Fields, Barrick, GG or someone.

Long both, buy!

2008 Oct 30 01:42 PM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

I'm probably looked at as a pariah by some maybe more then some, but whatta hey, I'll take any accolade I can get.

On a serious note, I believe silver and cobalt will be big winners in 2009. I assume that most of you own laptops. With that in mind, a new battery for them will be introduced next year. This battery is being produced by a private company but is sponsored by Intel.

Silver/zinc/cobalt combo which is supposed to increase Battery life by 40%. It will be 95% recyclable and the company will credit you on a new battery if you send it back after it has reached its recharge limit.

Enough on the Tech. Suffice it to say, with the amount of laptops around the world and the never ending search for longevity, even if it is recycled, it would put pressure on the minerals used. The Battery is not capable of overheating.

Of the 3 minerals involved, I believe that it would be Cobalt then Silver then Zinc which would rise depending on acceptance.

I don't know, I'm asking.
The company's name is Zpower, they have a web site which I don't know offhand.

2008 Oct 30 02:41 PM

[Umm, yeah:]

I own some SLV, but it seems that in the short term, deflation still rules the day. I've read more than one article preaching short term deflation followed by hyper inflation as the gov't + Fed try to stop the stagflation. Mark mentions the hyper inflation part, but I don't see anyone talking about the short term deflation that we've been experiencing.

2008 Oct 30 04:05 PM

[jse17:]

Mark,

Your comments on Noah’s Ark are noted. As a physics PhD candidate and an extraordinarily bright, insightful, and discerning individual what are your thoughts relating to the fact that 72% of Americans (not a typo) believe Noah’s Ark actually existed?

2008 Oct 30 06:50 PM

[bosun.j:]

jse17:

Operative word "believe".

Simply because "72% of Americans" believe something does not in fact make it true.

Much the same way Americans believe the idea that the United States has the highest standard of living in the world. That is one fairy tale that is actually believed by numerous grownups in America!

"amongst the developed nations, the United States is the worst place to be a worker, to be sick, to seek a university education, to be a parent; or, in the land of two million incarcerated, to exercise certain rights or be a defendant in court".

Extremist-Capitalist dogma demands slavish adherence to the "company line"

2008 Oct 30 09:14 PM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

We are beaten down and hammered at every turn. You sleep at night hoping that the next day will bring an inkling of light as to where the answers lie. I don't bother to watch a regular TV show knowing a Political Ad will appear hammering me some more. Movie Rentals for the next 4 days will get me through.

After the election, whoever wins, will give us a better clue of what is likely to go up or down.

Don't pay too much attention when the Markets get Hammered no matter who wins. Mutual Fund redemptions will take over where the Hedge Funds left off.

Say you own XYZ Mutual Fund which is down 30% this year. The next statement will announce what the dividend and capital gains exdistribution date is. Mark my words, there are large Cap. Gains and dividends lurking on which you will have to pay taxes even though your overall losses are staggering. Its happened before and somewhat regularly in these types of meltdowns.

How many decide to bail beforehand is moot, personally I would vote with my feet, take the loss and have tax offsets for years if needed. The selling of these funds will drive the market down even further.

Additionally Tax Loss selling may come earlier this year as people finally come to grips that there may be, just may be no Santa Claus rally this year.

This will turn out to be the final rout.

Barron's Online produces a weekly graph charting Market Sentiment. The Panic/Euphoria index, as of last week it has not entered Panic mode. I believe in the next few weeks it finally will.

They also produce an Insider Sentiment Graph, this has entered the Bullish camp and may become even more so.

Keep your powder dry for a few more weeks, make your picks, nibble, nibble, and wait. The last two nibbles are to average up. Not to be used until the price exceeds that of the first 2.

Market timing is an inexact science. I've given up on current valuations and projected PEs. The only thing left is Market Sentiment. When it turns, it will be very steep and very quick and a third of the move may be over before you realize what is happening. Everything will move up initially. Except the Dollar, maybe, because it has already seen a bubble like appreciation in the last few months.

This is my opinion based on my last 2 trustworthy indicators.

2008 Oct 30 11:40 PM

[KIRE:]

Hi Mark, I enjoy your articles and insights. What puzzles me is the suggestions or comments regarding pink sheet companies in your articles. PK companies have a slew of other "games" being played other than what business they are in. For the most part ALL PK companies are a amusement park horror show ride for investors...the only people smiling are the principals who are playing more "games" than the NFL lol...Why mention PK companies to folks?

2008 Oct 31 08:58 AM

[stocks:]

I agree who it is become most popular article? We are better than that...

2008 Oct 31 11:11 AM

[Mark Anthony:]

Kire:

What pink sheet stock did I mention? The only thing with a .pk I mentioned is NILSY.PK, Norilsk Nickel. They are not a small penny stock. Norilsk Nickel is gigantic. I do not recommend penny stock.

PaulTaut:

No one can get market timing correct so why even bother to attempt to time the market. Most savvy investors have totally given up trying to time the market moves and they concentrate on valuation only. Jim Rogers has not sold a single share of his Chinese shares. If he thought he could time the market he would have sold and then try to buy back cheaper. Jim Rogers is a billionaire because he recognize what he can not do and should not do, and concentrate on what he can do and should do. That is concentrating on valuation and be patient, let the market play its timing game.

When most people are by-standers, it's time to jump both feet in to buy.

2008 Oct 31 04:41 PM

[chazzzzz:]

Mr ANTHONY, YOU ARE TOTALLY INSANE. i HAVE WATCHED YOUR PICKS (PAL) TO NAME ONE, TO TOTALLY IMPLODE SINCE YOUR JUNE CALL. nOW DONT GET INTO SEMANTICS WITH ME, BUT A DROP OF $5 ISH TO $1 AND A HALFISH REEKS OF STUPIDITY. YEA IN THEORY YOUR ANALIZATION SOUNDS GREAT BUT IN REALITY YOU LOST EVERYBODY MONEY. IN ORDER TO MAKE UP A 80% DROP I NEED TO MAKE UP WHAT ? 200- 300 % ? HUH ,

STOP PUMPING BECAUSE THIS CRAP IS OVER , hOW LONG MUST I WAIT BEFORE YOU ARE RIGHT OR SHOULD I JUST BUY NAKED PUTS AGAINST EVERYTHING YOU SAY !

THE DAMAGE HAS BEEN DONE AND THE BOTTOM HAS BEEN FORMED. NOW DONT YOU DARE SAY THAT " YOU ARE A GENIUS " IF THIS CRAP RUNS 50% IN A WEEK BECAUSE WE NEED AT LEAST A %200 RUN IN ORDER TO JUSTIFY YOUR PREVIOUS CALLS.

NOW DONT GET INTO THE SEMANTICS, THE BOTTOM LINE IS YOU WERE WRONG PUMPING AND DONT HIGH FIVE YOURSELF WHEN YOU GET A NICE 50% POP BECAUSE IN MY EYES YOU OWE US 200 % SO STOP OVER ANALYISING A SECTOR THAT IS TOTALLY BROKEN.

YEA, IN THEORY YOU SOUND GREAT BUT IN REALITY YOUR STRATEGY IS FLAWED

2008 Oct 31 11:56 PM

[cariboo:]

Fab, es tu Mr lebayon?

2008 Nov 01 08:01 PM

[directcommu...:]

I wouldn't buy any precious metal mining companies. They all under perform.

2008 Nov 02 12:20 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

user. been to the TMF?

2008 Nov 02 02:19 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

We are beaten down and hammered at every turn. You sleep at night hoping that the next day will bring an inkling of light as to where the answers lie. I don't bother to watch a regular TV show knowing a Political Ad will appear hammering me some more.

2008 Nov 02 05:30 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

I see this I just don't have to accept it.

2008 Nov 02 05:33 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

read "...and God resolved that he would never again curse the ground because of man, nor destroy all life on it in this manner. Man in turn was instructed never to eat any animal which had not been drained of its blood"

guess I have been drained of my blood? wow. commodity market not what I thought it was going to be.

2008 Nov 02 06:51 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

lol that is a weird review

2008 Nov 02 07:00 AM

[Mark Anthony:]

Anglo Platinum's Polokwane Smelter, one of the two smelter that teh company owns, and the world's largest PGM metals smelter, was shut down by an accident:

platinum.matthey.com/m...

The company said it will take six weeks to repair. Don't count on it. There was another shut down of the smelter in September 2005. Their initial accessment was a 3 weeks down time. Ended up shut down for more than three months.

2008 Nov 06 02:45 AM

[anand:]

What do you think about HL? It has fallen substantially today? How will they meet their short term portion of long term debt? ($134 million)?

Even with that short term liquidity need, I don't understand why the current valuation is so low.

2008 Nov 07 02:42 PM

[Mark Anthony:]

The naked shorting of up to $2.29 TRILLION U.S. T-Bonds are so disturbing that the US government started an investigation about it. Here is Jim Sinclair's comment about it:

216.157.72.247/index.p.../

Quote Jim: "It is ok to naked short anything against anyone until it costs the Treasury money. This is the financial equivalent of “Let Them eat Cake.” Somebody is going to the guillotine for these “Fails to Deliver.""

The original Bloomberg news report:
U.S. Treasury Opens Probe Seeking Improper Trading (Update1)
By Rebecca Christie and Vincent Del Giudice
www.bloomberg.com/apps...

2008 Nov 08 11:03 AM

[adan:]

i'm interested in this (re hl's situation) also

thanks


On Nov 07 02:42 PM anand wrote:

> What do you think about HL? It has fallen substantially today? How
> will they meet their short term portion of long term debt? ($134
> million)?
>
> Even with that short term liquidity need, I don't understand why
> the current valuation is so low.

2008 Nov 08 08:06 PM

[directcommu...:]

I wanted to make a follow up on this stock sil. Down over 50% since this article.

2008 Dec 08 01:19 PM

[Mark Anthony:]

I called for watching DRYS and I myself entered DRYS long positions aggressively around about $4 a share. Now DRYS has almost equal weight to the SWC positions I hold. I no longer own SIL at this point. It is a good stock to buy but when the price falls below $1 it's going to be quiet for a while until silver is up significantly.

2008 Dec 15 10:19 PM

[Conan the B...:]

I really hate these long streamed articles, but what the hey.

Full Disclosure: Heavy positions in SWC, PAL, OMG and SLV.

"Will continue to buy some select silver shares including SSRI, HL, PAAS, and SIL"

the Article's date is 10/29/2008 ( 6 months ago)

Apr 09 12:35 PM