World Oil Supplies Declining Faster Than Expected - IEA 17 comments
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We have temporarily dodged a bullet. The upcoming IEA World Energy Report will say that global oil supplies are falling faster than expected, and massive investments are required just to (almost) stand still. The only thing making things marginally less calamitous? The current downturn-induced demand collapse has given us a little more time to prepare for the inevitable.
Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.
The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term demand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.
…The agency says even with investment, the annual rate of output decline is 6.4 per cent.
…All the increase in oil demand until 2030 comes from emerging countries, while consumption in developed countries declines.
As a result, the share of rich countries in global demand will drop from last year’s 59 per cent to less than half of the total in 2030.
More here.
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This article has 17 comments:
Public transport - no money which all used to bail out the bankers
Fuel efficient cars - GM, Ford etc are facing chapter 11 let alone invest in technology.
I suggest walking and wearing more cloths in winter
"“In the West, approximately 10 calories of hydrocarbons are required to produce one calorie of food. In short, we convert oil into food via the Earth." [1]
We use oil to power the agricultural vehicles and even more importantly. To manufacture fertilizers.
When the oil goes, so do the machines and the fertilizers. The end of oil is not just about transport it is about a *massive* reduction in the energy available to humanity. If we get the changeover to something else wrong, it will also mean a massive reduction in food production. And a massive reduction in food production will mean a massive population reduction.
How about, a matching 6% population reduction every year? 360 million people.
[1] ec.europa.eu/research/...
hitler, stalin & saddam all had population reduction programs. the results were not very pleasant.
> jack
THE COMING ELECTRICITY CRISIS
by Byron W. King
OK, so I don't have a copy of the Sunday business section from next March. But I think I know what at least one major issue will be within the next 24 months. The headlines will scream, "Power Failures, Price Spikes Plague Northeast U.S." And the same thing will also hit the Western U.S. And the Southeastern U.S. And parts of the Midwest. ...
Earlier this week, I attended a privately sponsored presentation on U.S. energy policy. The main speaker was a senior faculty member from Carnegie Mellon University. This guy has been "doing electricity" for about 40 years or so. He has written reports for the National Academy of Sciences. When the people at the U.S. Department of Energy have a question about electricity, they call this CMU professor.
The news is not good. In 2007, there were about 144 new coal-fired power plants on the drawing boards of the U.S. energy utilities. But, said the professor, "We will probably build none of them.? Indeed, ?The electric industry in the U.S. is in terrible shape," said the CMU man. So we should expect local and regional brownouts and blackouts to become common occurrences "within five years." But the first isolated instances of brownout and blackout will hit us much sooner than that. ...
The Daily Reckoning
emailed Tuesday October 28, 2008
earnmostmoney.blogspot...
I don't need to go into the myriad reasons why this CAN'T work. We're going to get to see them ourselves the next four years. Let's just hope we have a country left when it's over.
Why don't you start us off! Let's see....you invest your money so you can lose $10 for each $75 you put in. Drill, baby, drill!
As for some of the others, I don't believe that I ever heard Mr Obama say that he is going to run a 'something-for-nothing... government if he is elected. As a matter of fact, IF he is elected, and IF he prefers 8 years rather than 4, a something-for-nothing government is not going to work for him. And why should he go that way, when all he has to do is to pull out of Iraq to finance his agenda.
And by the way, pulling out of Iraq does NOT mean that the US has lost that war. Uncle Sam doesn't lose wars - he has NEVER lost a war, although I could probably be convinced that Korea a tie. As a 5 year veteran of the US Army, I have all the respect in the world for Senator McCain, but his talk about winning and losing in Iraq has no basis in logic.
Don't shoot yourself just yet, there's still coal (I mean light) at the end of the tunnel.
It sure makes me happy to read all these positive comments. I agree.
It's reassuring to see people thinking about "over population," food shortages that can be addressed by making fertilizers made from nat. gas, all good approaches to the problem. And the greatest solution of all, using the U.S. largest coal reserves in the world to make very clean and very competitive diesel fuel. Of course, CTL (diesel) will take a very hard adjustment and conversion for our country to make, i.e. driving to our corner gas station and using the diesel pump in lieu of the gasoline pump.
famos
We got our asses kicked. We should send all the politicians, Jane, and her ilk over there to celebrate the victory - then bomb it flat - like we shoulda done in the first place
The IEA is a political organization better named "the Organization of Oil Importing Countries." They have been telegraphing this shift in assessment for months. It is a 180-degree turnaround from their cornucopian views up to a couple of years ago. Before, their basic view was, "If you project the demand, it will be supplied" - - no science, no real analysis.
Pay attention, now. They have been bitten by reality, but it will be a year or two before they can tell the whole truth, because it will be too shocking to tell all at once. (The IEA's masters are all politicians, an excitable group.)
The full FT article includes this: "It expects oil consumption in 2030 to reach 106.4m barrels a day, down from last year’s forecast of 116.3m b/d." This is not the first time the IEA has cut back its future production forecast, and it won't be the last.
As the IEA continues to (downward) revise its stats, keep in mind that oil available for export is dropping faster than total oil produced as the oil rich countries expand their internal consumption. (Jeffrey Brown's "Export Land Model")
Yeah, maybe in 10 years, but not today.
Is oil a great investment today ? At these prices, probably, but I resent folks that plaster doom and gloom all over the place - where were these folks 30-60 days ago ? Are you telling me just now, TODAY, we are discovering this ?
Doubtful.
Why has oil dropped in price BY HALF from what it was a few months ago, if the oil world is in such dire straits ??????? If it was in such a mess, it would not have dropped by half. Maybe 15%, given the world economy, but not by half.