Is Wienkes Hobbling Sirius XM? 116 comments
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It seems that whenever something good starts to happen for Sirius XM Radio (SIRI), Goldman Sach’s analyst Mark Wienkes is there to cast doubt on the situation, and in essence, hobble the equity. After trading well Monday, Wienkes took yet another shot at Sirius XM, that at this point reminds of a classic movie scene from Misery.
For those that for some reason may not have seen the movie, the premise is that author Paul Sheldon (played by James Caan), is “rescued” from an accident by Annie who turns out to be a crazed fan (played by Kathy Bates). After bringing Sheldon back to health, Annie will not let him go, and stops at nothing to limit the progress of his health. Every time Sheldon appears to be gaining strength, Annie does something to break his will. At one point she even “hobbles” Sheldon by breaking his ankles in a manner that can only be described as gruesome. The video is not for the faint of heart, but then again, neither is the current stock price of Sirius XM Radio.
In his latest report, Wienkes moved his price target down to .25 cents, and lowered subscriber as well as revenue estimates for the company. Wienkes still sees the debt refinancing as a major issue.
Is Wienkes hobbling Sirius XM? For many it certainly seems to be the case. The timing of reports issued by the analyst has more than a few people wondering if there is some sort of agenda. Each investor will have to arrive at their own conclusion, but there is little doubt that the latest report issued by Wienkes has had an impact on the stock price.
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This article has 116 comments:
This company will not fly without subscribers of which there will be none if there is no advertising to promote good content and promo packages and services. No advertising at this time of year, the season for gift giving?! It took 18 months for the merger to go through and there have been a lot of complaints about what a waist of time that was and how detrimental it was to Sirius, and I agree. But apparently Mel really didn't make very good use of that time either in so far as to having a plan to sell the service once the merger went through. I waited after Labor Day to hear from Mel and there wasn't anything from him to really speak of. I thought once the merger went though Mel would have come flying out of the shutes with something to promote this company and get it off the ground in a hurry but he didn't.
Something isn't right; maybe it's just a case of Mel selling us out and this 18 month merger and the bonds and the debt and the apathy are just a way to slowly let Sirius die. Unless they just don't care and want this company to fade away, Mel and company need to get on it big time and promote Sirius to the public. There is no demand in the general public for radio you have to pay for. It has to be promoted.
Well friends that is what I have done for the past 3 years.....I highly recommend it.....I am responsible for about 12 subs..........
This builds on the theory of Mel & co. wanting to take it to BK which we all say can't happen...........We say it can't happen because they could get financing and their a growing business.................
What if their NOT a growing business??????????
This recession is the perfect cover for SIRI not to make it's numbers.........don't advertise, allow higher churn to go unanswered, SIRI misses Q's, and they drop to 17.5 mil subs..
A sacrifice for the future????????
I am not stunned by the timing of the downgrade, Goldman apparantly is shorting the stock and wants it at the .25 level and then will convert after the financing is in place. We the sirius shareholders should continue to by at these low prices and to add to our portfolios since the stock is cheap and there is nothing we can do about it. Mel is quiet because he is in bed with all of them only up to the point where he can resolve the debt issue, then who knows. If enough shareholders unite then maybe he will be replaced by a younger CEO who is more in tune with the market and marketing to a 21st century audience. However for now he's all we got and at least he's put up some of his fortune to buy at the market price.
As listeners and shareholders here's what we can do. Add the best of XM to your Sirius subscription and vice versa. Go out and buy radios and give subscriptions to your employees and/or to your friends and relatives. I will be giving a Sirius stiletto and all its accessories to my new assistant and to my new secretary as part of their Christmas bonus. My parents who have Sirius in their cars will be getting one too with all the accessories to wire up their home to Sirius.
I went out a purchased another Sirius radio, activated it, adding to my account and placed it in my Vermont home and left it there so I can listen on weekends desptie the fact that I have two plug and play units that I could take there when I go there for the weekends. The extra cost is minimal and I am helping the company bottom line.
Everyone else is getting the gift of Sirius this year. I will buy a portable radio and accessory pack and gift their subscription for one year. The total cost will be about the same as I would spend on Christmas gifts for everyone on my gift list.
I believe in the product desptie the fact that I am angry with everyone. I am angry with Mel and Howard and Oprah and the FCC and the political whores and especially with Goldman who have, together with the Bank of America bashed and downgraded this AMERICAN company.
I also believe that at this time we are like the "band of brothers" surrounded at Bastone, no relief in sight yet still strong and standing saying "Nuts" to demands for us to capitulate, after all, Goldman runs the Fed and the Treasury, the SEC is powerless to help us since they turn a blind eye to Goldman's conduct for they are the favorites of the Bush administration.
Off in the distance, however the Third army is coming. For one thing there will be change starting next Tuesday, and then maybe heads will roll. Maybe Andrew Cuomo from New York will start to examine the conduct of the players in this game. Maybe there will be justice for the people who believe in this company. Perhaps we should start by going to the annual meeting and as shareholders, we can propose to loan the money to Sirius to pay off its debt...ALL of it, so we are never again at the mercy of the investment bankers and the market manipulators. As shareholders we should accept a low interest rate, say 3 percent, with quarterly interest only payments for five years and then each of us should get a stock bonus of five percent of our contibution payable 60 months from date, then the term of then loan will be extended for 25 years on a self liquidating basis with the interest rate adjusted every five years, forty five days prior to the change date, with the index tied to LIBOR with a margin of 2.5 percent rounded up to the nearest one eighth. Sirius would not be able to prepay during the first five years but at anytime after the stock bonus is paid to us, the shareholder lenders.
What do we have to lose by such a proposal. I'm sure the retail shareholders would invest enough at least to cover the debt due in 2009. We could have a major lawfirm create the shareholder entity and provide the trust account necessary to make the debt payoffs required under the transaction, together with the master investor list so that the interest payments can be posted to our attorney trust account and they can cut the checks to all of us on a quarterly basis. We as investors would pay our attorneys to administer our account from the interest payments due us.
How's that for an angry shareholders plan. I invite any comments or modifications since I have never been involved in such a transaction before. But I can read the terms of an interest only home mortgage tied to LIBOR and I know that attorney truct accounts are protected. The rest I trust to all of you who believe in this company and in the product.
It's time for us to stand up and make change, for the sake of our investments and for the sake of our children.
If anyone is online this morning .......Siri is @ .35 I am assuming it is going to tank to .25 today ............Any thoughts on this .........I am contemplating a dump and re-purchase ..........a bit nervous
I have definately learned my lesson , about listening to weinke .....that sob has been right as rain so far ( even if it maybe is a self-fulfilling prophecy ) , but to me .33 is just too low to sell , even with a good chance to go down ........at these levels there is also a good chance to hit .40 and never see under .30 again ..........I think maybe a better play here is to wait for .20 to buy , or .40ish to sell ...........no matter what the news , Siri has a life of it's own , and these days I view siri news as possible manipulation tactics
You sound like a very smart guy but I have to agree...your nuts...
We, the ones who lost our lunch, would give hundreds of millions of $$$ to a group of people who have become RICH by mismanageing hundreds of millions of $$$........OUR HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS....
Our money, not to be seen again for decades if ever????????????
NO WAY............
A .35 cent stock at that, nothing else to cover?...........and a comment that comes 1 day after the stocks biggest move up in weeks?????
We're getting worked.........
I agree with bdp that you have to pick a price an stick to it. Selling in Lots works as well in buying in lots. You get an average "out" price instead. Yesterday I said that level two showed some support at .31-.32. In fact on average volume today .33 is put up a good fight and sellers are being stubborn this morning. A lot probably got in when the price ran past .36 and the rest are just longs not wanting to take the chance.
My own experience on selling the stock at average out of .42 was that I remembered the stock falling from .29 - .22 an how I had wished I had gotten out and saved some ammo. In addition I combined the dread that I felt with the fact that the video that played was staged (not faulting the video, but it was what it was, "Autoline" ) and since the Proxy Statement nothing had really change and we still waiting to hear.
I would look to this afternoon and an interest rate cut announcement to see what happens, the decision will be yours, but if the Street get the cut they want, there could be a push up on Siri SP. The decision will be yours then as always. The first time you try to play the channel, is like "back testing" with play money, use a little until you get more confidence. Successful strategies will build your confidence and take some of the negative pressure off by giving you some control back while accumulating shares...... when right. JMHO
Maybe he wants to get siri down one more time , to hit a nice juicy low for his short buddies to exit , before siri heads back up to .50 ............I read a couple of blogs on Barron's , that talked about the fact that siri cannot convert @.25 , and need the price higher to exchange shares for debt (obviously) , but I mean GS also may have an interest in a slightly higher conversion rate because .25 may get 'em a smokin' deal , but it will kill their cash cow in the process
I am definately a novice about all these debt issues and intricacies , and I am not a number cruncher ....but I can grasp a few concepts out there
I thought that was a sure thing??????
I think I have come up with a strategy that is safer ( providing no BK ) ......
I am going to look for the low .20's to buy , and look for a partial sell @ .50 ...........I hate to sink more money in this mess , but I don't think .20 - .50 is a bad range to look for .....and 2 or 3 more thousand ain't much in the grand scheme of things
I agree that a convert price would be higher than .25....I think the last $30 mil convert at .45 was a sign of that....
Another thing about the weinke statement,,,,
He's not only calling for .25,,,,,he made statements like "if there's any equity left",,,,,,he also spoke of cost per sub, increased churn, lower sales, & lowered expectations.
He's been right on everything and I think those are valid concerns........
How is it that he's the only one with these opinions and he's always....
right....
I have a really BAD feeling about this Q3 report................... don't think there's any middle of the road.
Either it meets or beats expextations, shows a good picture of the merged companies, speaks definitively about the debt and future (which we've yet to hear from a Q report) and then the stock will jump.....OR,,,,,it possibly misses expectations, bad merger news, lowered expectations, and more vanilla BS, and no debt resolve.......and we're done!!!
As a trading play,,,I really think we need to go into earnings committed to one or the other......
I sold 1/3 of my holding yesterday at .36....I thought for sure it would hit the low to mid 20's by the end of the week where I would get back in and add my last round of bullets............
Cos, any advice??
If so,,,,,why are you buying at .24??
If things are that bad (which I think is possible) a rev split and dilution are immanent!!! which easily gets the stock in the teens??
We are just about to hear the news that you all have been wanting to hear. Mel and company have been just doing what they need to do to report as well as they can and give some insight to the Feb. note. I guarantee you that a definite plan is in the works. The companies stock is widely held by institutions and their not bailing out. Why do you think that Siri just raised $30MM? That's part of the plan stupid!
Everyone is pointing the finger at a guy who is working his ass off trying to make deals for the company. Please stop the insults and whining. Do you think you are qualified to become a millionare on a "get lucky" siri stock. Even with all of the money in the world you would still be a little whiny you. Get off Mels back and support what they are trying to do.
The Misery video is an astute metaphor that is not hard to follow. Generally, I find the response here - pro or con - represent the thoughts of individuals that, could grasp the very obvious meaning intended in this message and video. In this case, for those unfamiliar with the movie, your caution about the "faint of heart," was gracious but necessary. As depicted in the clip, there is nothing funny about hobbling the hard work of Mr. Karmazin and every employee that works around the clock to protect the stockholders. I am not sure if SM480 is not familiar with the company, failed to read your words, watch the video or somehow managed to miss your point all together, but the comments are nothing more than someone standing behind Annie and taking a few more swings. It does not take much to understand the insanity of trying to solve a problem with a sledge hammer but SM was somehow motivated to take up where Kathy Bates left off. Go for it pal?
Is it too much to ask that if you elect to comment here that you do so respecting the accomplishments of an executive that has led the company from 500,000 subscribers to 18 million? Speaking of respect, I'd love to see SM480 address Mr. Karmazin as "Mel" were they speaking face-to-face. If SM480's verbal skills are anything like the writing, the closest SM would get to Mr. Karmazin would be mopping the basement floor. Of course, SM would need to be careful of what might come "flying out of the" garbage chute, (not shute). SM might also want to do something about the waste, (not waist), of time asked of all of us to read such an ill informed rant. Before you throw any more stones SM, try spell check and, by the way, it will always be Mr. Karmazin to you!
The Misery video is an astute metaphor that is not hard to follow. Generally, I find the response here - pro or con - represent the thoughts of individuals that, could grasp the very obvious meaning intended in this message and video. In this case, for those unfamiliar with the movie, your caution about the "faint of heart," was gracious but necessary. As depicted in the clip, there is nothing funny about hobbling the hard work of Mr. Karmazin and every employee that works around the clock to protect the stockholders. I am not sure if SM480 is not familiar with the company, failed to read your words, watch the video or somehow managed to miss your point all together, but the comments are nothing more than someone standing behind Annie and taking a few more swings. It does not take much to understand the insanity of trying to solve a problem with a sledge hammer but SM was somehow motivated to take up where Kathy Bates left off. Go for it pal?
Is it too much to ask that if you elect to comment here that you do so respecting the accomplishments of an executive that has led the company from 500,000 subscribers to 18 million? Speaking of respect, I'd love to see SM480 address Mr. Karmazin as "Mel" were they speaking face-to-face. If SM480's verbal skills are anything like the writing, the closest SM would get to Mr. Karmazin would be mopping the basement floor. Of course, SM would need to be careful of what might come "flying out of the" garbage chute, (not shute). SM might also want to do something about the waste, (not waist), of time asked of all of us to read such an ill informed rant. Before you throw any more stones SM, try spell check and, by the way, it will always be Mr. Karmazin to you
I appreciate your confidence, however, am I supposed to be happy that they raised $30m towards a $300m debt,,,,and did so by diluting another 66,000,000 shares???
I wasn't expecting to become a millionare, on the other hand I wasn't expecting to be BS's and robbed either.
Pardon me for getting on Mel's back, but so far, I've supported him while he destroted the stock over the past 3 years..........
Again, I appreciate your confidence, but unless you're in on the SIRI board meetings I don't trust Mel or you.....
Part of my comments this morning was my best advice. Look for, as Killerkaul is doing an increase in SP, which your seeing as I type, in anticipation of the Fed Rate Cut now, and I would exit and not worry if it goes a little higher. The real issue is as bdp has articulated. The 3rd quarter is not going to be good and we already know that. It historically isn't. With merger costs and any other legal fee they can throw at the quarter, the one time charges will be tough on the bottom line. That is not news. The metrics are going to be confusing because the companies were separate and then merged in the same quarter.
Weinkes can say what he say because metrics will change depending on subscription composition and how the numbers are presented. I think they will present them separate and then combined for this quarter and the next. But even interoperable units, not alacarte, in the retail chain will effect metrics and SAC. All of this confusion will make it easy for Weinkes to be "RIGHT" but not in a meaningful way longer term.
My concern is no Net Subscriber Growth because even with the churn staying the same, retail will not be there in Q3 due to merge, the financial crisis stopped cars from moving of the lot for at least a month of the quarter, effecting XM numbers more than Sirius because of how subs are counted. That will be explained away by the economy and company focus on generating revenue from Best of Both in the 4th Q.
I removed my by back ins prices because if the stock goes to .24 before reporting, it will go lower after if the numbers are bad. JMHO
I've wondered this exact thing about lack of advertising. This is what I hope is happening. With all the bad news that has been happening, do you feel it is a good time to be rolling out your new advertising? People are concerned with the economy and the upcoming election. Hopefully we will start to have a breath of fresh air after the elections and people can start looking to relax and look forward to the holidays.
Fast forward a bit to Thanksgiving. What's everyone doing on Thanksgiving? Sitting around and watching football. Which day is the busiest shopping day of the year? The day after Thanksgiving. It's the perfect time hit folks up with some great advertising. We'll see how it all plays out, but to me it makes good sense to start slowly rolling in some new advertising/promotions after the elections/Q3 results, then roll out heavy during the football games on Thanksgiving continuing through December. Maybe take a breather during the "off season", then hit it hard again during Spring/Early summer (Baseball season, boating season, etc...)
Before someone chimes in about folks not spending money this holiday season. We'll see, but I tell you what, I was at the local Best Buy this past Saturday and they were packed. Every parking spot was taken up. The malls were packed as well.
We'll all see soon enough.
On Oct 29 08:20 AM brandonland wrote:
> Not a single sirius ad during FOOTBALL this past weekend .........the
> only ads I have seen were on websites like perez hilton and egotastic....soley
> meant to recruit teens...........why is there no advertising...I
> mentioned the other day to a friend that the NFL on sirius is so
> great because you can listen to the Home and Away teams booth....it
> is great...they have sirius and they had no idea(dummdumm) CHRISTMAS
> IS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!
BOUGHT IN AT 2.25 60,000 SHARES
NET COST CLOSE TO 300,000.00
IM LOSING MY ASS WITH THIS INVESTMENT ,
I BLAME NO ONE BUT ME
I BELIEVED IN THE PRODUCT AND MORE IN THE CONTENT
THAT IT DELIVERS , I HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON 4 YEARS ,IM REALY LOSING FAITH THE MORE I READ .........I STRESS OUT
I JUST HOPE MEL IS NOT IN ON THIS WITH SOME EVIL INTENTIONS
TO SCREW US SHARE HOLDERS , I HOPE IM WRONG
F GS AND WEINKE
WHAT WE NEED IS SIMILAR DEAL THAT TOOK PLACE WITH
VOLKS WAGON YESTERDAY
PORSHE MADE THEIR MOVE AND BOUGHT 30% MORE IN THE COMPANY
SHORT SELLERS SCRAMBLED TO COVER THEIR SHORT
IM WILLING TO DO WHAT OTHERS HAD SUGESTED
LET ALL OF US SHARE HOLDERS HELP TO PAY THIS DEBT
AND IN RETURN GET COMPENSATED SOME HOW
I GUESS WE NEED A PLAN , INVESTMENT LAWYER INVOLVED
SIRUIS SHOULD SET UP AN ACCOUNT FOR US SHARE HOLDERS
TO CONTRIBUTE AND RAISE MONEY TO HELP WITH DEBT
THIS INVESTMENT CHANGED MY LIFE STYLE
I JUST HOPE SOME ONE CAN COME UP WITH A PLAN
Sensitivity: Confidential
savesirius@gmail.com Reply
Sirius and XM have colluded and conspired to consolidate all of the SDARS spectrum. I and other share holders (numbers exceeding 500) have filed an action against Sirius/XM's management and board of directors for racketeering.
Mr. Karmazin was brought out of retirement by Mr. Leon Black from Apollo for the purpose of consolidating and gaining control of all of the satellite radio spectrum. He has made it clear that his own self interests and the interest of the other board members, including Mr. Leon Black, is opposed to that of the individual shareholders. Mr. Karmazin should have walked away from this merger many many months ago and should have commercially introduced interoperable radios into the market place. This would have given consumers the choice the FCC Federal Licensing Mandate required as well as Sirius XM's Joint Development Agreement.
If Mr. Karmazin would have been able to put his ego and self interest aside he would not have held his shareholders hostage during the longest delay in merger history and wait till the last minute to obtain the necessary financing for XM's debt. How does a CEO of Mr.. Karmazin's stature not have back up plans A, B and C and be forced into financing terms in the 11th hour that causes his company shareholders to lose 80% of their value in a matter of days following consummation of this merger?
Mr. Karmazin has not done anything to enhance shareholder value. On the contrary, he destroyed it. He's damaged his shareholders to the tune of billions of dollars.
The final chapter in this multi-year conspiracy will be to steal the combined company from its shareholders. The table has been set. Mr. Karmazin has publicly stated to Sarah McBride of the Wall street Journal, not more than three weeks ago, that he would "love to take the company private at these levels". Mr. Karmazin publicly admits that he would steal this company from its true owners at pennies a share if given the opportunity. Now, the Board of Directors are suggesting a 1 for 50 reverse split and massive amounts of dilution to a number of shares totaling 8 billion in the fully diluted float. I predict that after a say 1 for 40 reverse split that will give the 20cent share price a post reverse split price of $8 a share. Then what will happen the executives will pay themselves hundreds of millions of dollars in new shares, capital will be raised by issuance of these shares and then at some point in the not so distant future an offer will be made at a substantial premium to take this company private. What people will forget is that $8 a share is really 20cents to the current owners of this company (ie: the shareholders) and even at a 100%premium at $16 a share they would be stealing the company from it shareholders for a mere 40 cents a share. I and other shareholders will not stand for this. We intend to prevent this from happening by any means possible. We are going to demand Mr. Karmazin and other board members be held accountable.
savesirius@gmail.com Reply
Bad News and it goes up to .40 today?
I want more bad news.... LOL
Vote no Rev-Split
Vote no More Shares
MARKB---- at the top of your last post you claim sensitivity ---CONFIDENTIAL...then what the hell are you posting that here for....and give credit to the author, mike hartlieb sent to carl icahn...you fail to mention important facts..making it seem like this email was all your work or stolen from the desk at some insider at sirius. instead of constantly whining here on a forum, how come your not doing the same in front of ANDREW CUOMO , attorney general for NYS. you'd get more progress there, or you're hoping someone else does it for you?
cos--- i was impressed the last few months by your knowledge of this company and scope of the way its traded. now i am annoyed you just keep talking about how you are getting in and getting out. your no different than pig farmer. this forums intent is to provide an avenue of discussion regarding the company and not your trading strategy. if you were so smart , you wouldnt be trying to recoup your original investment here. so why are you telling us what your doing? it doesnt help at all. you badmouthed every single analyst down on siri, every negative article , once you have seen the light of the true intentions of mel, you did a complete 180. that is fine it is your opinion. so now everything you mentioned in the past regarding the product and services is total bs??? you're a hypocrite also.
i have been reading these posts the last few months since i went long on siri. i am 56k shares deep at around 1.3....i have learned alot from relmor, cos, 16388(w/e), and a few others....the rest of the bloggers are truly unsophisticated (as i am). this is my first post and prolly my last one.
Changing my name with this post.
If he does it again please note I am over 100 comments...
This just goes on and on...
Changing my name with this post.
If he does it again please note I am over 100 comments...
This just goes on and on...
I won't respond to you and your right to have JustAnotherOpinion.......
and this is my 863rd post and it certainly take more than your opinion to have me not post when I feel like it. My position on the company is still very positive, my position right now is as a trader, not traitor, and when asked for an opinion I will provide it and sometimes...... when not. Thank you for sharing and I hope you feel free to post here whenever you like.
I know how frustrating this can be..... I have been the object of this type of harassment myself.
I think it is funny. We are so important to this nut that he spends all day and night spamming. You know your popular when people like this show up.
Tyler, this is a very great and cool service!!!
Please vote No Rev Split...
You know its pig farmer because he can't spell ...
LoL
But I have such a great dream.
I wake up one day soon in November and see Mel has anounced with flair and syle that Sirius has beat all the 3rd Q's and has established the required finnancing. The stock rocket up to 6.00 in 3 hours.
I cash in and move to Florida....
Wow what a great dream... Yah .. MMMMM...
LOL
Please vote no Rev Split...
but I am trying to keep an eye on this thing and .44 will be a major temptation to exit .........I might get trigger happy @high .30's .......
It just amazes me how weinke downgrades , and the stock goes up !!!! And huge buying volume @.38 to boot ..... But weinke usually wins in the end , so .25 may come around again , and Mel will be hard pressed for optimistic numbers Q3 .............so here goes nothin'
Sorry boss, I did not understand.
That post had the originator email and most here know who...
michael hartleib <savesirius@gmail.c...
It is part of an email drive for a press release. My point was to send it without any modifications.
I am praying it is all a waist of time and the Rev-Split is never done, needed or mentioned again. But, many feel we need to take action. So, I am...
Hope that helps...
Please Vote no Rev Split
cos,
........ your no different than pig farmer. this forums intent is to provide an avenue of discussion regarding the company and not your trading strategy. if you were so smart , you wouldnt be trying to recoup your original investment here. so why are you telling us what your doing? it doesnt help at all. you badmouthed every single analyst down on siri, every negative article , once you have seen the light of the true intentions of mel, you did a complete 180.
I will continue to bad mouth every single analyst that doesn't use numbers or actual facts regarding this company. Please save all your flattery for someone else more deserving. Good luck with you trading strategies and share them here if you would like..... we are all waiting to hear what you been holding back all these months.........
What a racket
all registered common shares registered,and these are what are generally used in convertibles, bond equity converting to common shares at a preset price noted in the bond convertible at maturity, are reversed. All shares lent, such as those lent to do the ugly merger deal, are reversed. Equity positions of common share holders does not change, all shares are adjusted, unfortunately for them and us, there will be no exceptions on authorized and issued common shares.
JustAnotherLose
7 comments and you are he to determine who here is friend and who is foe....
Interesting...... I do agree that if common shares are used to pay debt then those share holders are now interested in stock price appreciation.... but your not suggesting they then would have their analysts pump the stock are you??
killerkaul...
sounds like you did well today.... the Big Blue Dog gets to fight another day.... keep some powder dry for the days ahead.... volatility abounds and tomorrow will be important on volume and direction.... the third quarter news is mostly in the stock price at .44. I think this anxiety is more about the Proxy Statement share dilution and reverse split issues not being resolved or spoken about. Any slippage in sub growth will be fuel for analysts to be less than optimistic. There still has been no conference call scheduled and that is unusual, leaving us all to speculate, hence the SP volatility. Without the Proxy Statement release I would of expected us to in a range of .44 - .66, waiting for Financing Only news.
Every one should call Carl Ichan or write him at www.icahnreport.com/
My best guess for tomorrow would be just that, a guess.... the SP was held up at the end of day and ext. pm. market with small 100 & 200 share lots which usually means the shorts setting up for a couple of days of downside pressure.... but until the trading begins in the am.... the News boards are checked and Press Releases screened for info... its a blindfolded dart toss.....
icahnreport.com/
WE NEED PEOPLE FROM HIS CALIBRE OR ANY ONE ELSE YOU GUYS CAN THINK OF
THEY KNOW THE GAME , AND HOW TO PLAY IT
WE BASICALY OWN THE COMPANY
THE ONLY OBSTICLE I SEE IS THE VOTING RATIO OUTCOME
FOR THE RS
CARL CAN MAKE A BIG DIFRENCE HERE
MONEY TALKS AND BULL SHIT WALKS
RIGHT KNOW WE ARE BEING KICKED AROUND
F GS WEINKEE WHAT EVER HIS F NAME IS
DOWN GRADED THE STOCK TO 25 CENTS M F
ONCE IT REACHES 25 CENTS THE BASTARD WILL COME OUT AGAIN
DOWN GRADE TO 5 CENTS
I JUST HOPE ONE DAY HE CAN FEEL THE PAIN IM FEELING
WHEN GS EATS SHIT AND THE STOCK GOES DOWN TO 5
I CANT WAIT, ALSO JACCOBY FROM B OF A ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THIS MESS
Apparently Siri has issued another 65M towards debt payment ....just read that on reuters I think ( Edgars Online wed 5:08 pm , Oct 29 )
So we have debt being paid , along with some dilution ........maybe the two will cancel out ............but ok , so now GS has 65M more shares , and they are paying .45 for their shares ............so hell , they can pay me .45 for mine !!!!!!!! We'll see ...............thursda... should be interesting ..........If it cranks , I sell .......If it tanks , I buy
OK , I went and rechecked the story -- it's is on edgars online ......something is weird .........I just did the math on the shares traded down on debt ...............
65,129,000 shares for 19,500,000 dollars = 3.34 per share WTF ?
I am sure this will be Tyler's topic thursday
Icahn didn't get where he is in stocks like Sirius
.29 a share .........last deal was .45 ..........not good
Sir, we share holders of SiriusXM are battling a rev-split in what is now believed to be part of a plan that was designed to fund the SiriusXM merger with deception. Thanks to the efforts of Michael Hartleib several alarming things have been uncovered that should be investigated. We believe Mel Karmezan is conspiring to take the company private and steal it from the stock holders very cheap.
I am sure millions of stock holders of SiriusXM would welcome you to a position on the board. We need at least one good person looking out for stock holders. Any assistance you could provide would be appreciated.
I urge you please to contact Michael Hartleib <savesirius@gmail.c... before the December 18 share holder meeting.
A am Mark S, Ballard, the guy that wrote to Mr. Michael Hartleib with this introduction.
Mr. Ichan, millions of SiriusXM stock holders need your help, please.
Sincerely,
I would listen to cos1000, he knows WAY more than I do, and I know a lot.
Im not saying its going lower, but I cant wait under the trendline anymore. Its at .38 cents, went to .41 cents and I didnt buy back. Im seeing if a new range is estabished between .36 and .44, not .22. I have changed my views somewhat, new information.
Selling more shares for debt is great news for medium to long term stock holders who bought under 1.87. Everyone else is screwed, for now.
If it break $1, id expect at least .25 cents. That is a 4 bagger, and I would take it. I would probably buy at least 4000 contracts.
Hmmm, Wienkes issues a negative report just a day after a big jump in share price, and Mel’s interview outlining Sirius’s positive progress – subscriber growth is on target and churn rates are not in fact rising. Also how does he justify the claim that subscriber acquisition cost is rising with $425 million in realized synergies? And guess what, the company has been losing money every quarter since it started, so no duh it does not have positive cash flow yet. What’s new about that? Yet we know that it’s on the cusp of turning it’s first profit with over 18 million subs and rising it’s a clear-cut path to profitability even with the weak economy projections. You’d think that would be something that investors can bank on, yet Wienkes “thinks” he has better information than the CEO himself has on his own company and directly contradicts his numbers which are based on actual data!
Consider this. If the share price is where it should be, i.e. before Wienkes started began his campaign then Sirius would have no problem refinancing it’s debt without equity dilution. Sure we would have seen a hit with the market turmoil, but a large part of Siri’s price right now are a direct result of Wienke’s actions, not the market downturn. Hmm, add in that GS holds some 42% of the $300m convertible debt due in Feb and it’s easy to see why it’s in their best interest to keep the stock price down. Not to mention that GS investment banking has previously been caught illegally influencing it’s analysts (can you say hedge fund shorts?) to manipulate stock prices. I again ask how many of the exchange leading Siri short sales are held by hedge funds?? That’d be a real interesting stat if someone has access to the information. Something tells me we’ll see a sudden change in heart from Mr. Wienkes once that GS convertible debt is turned into shares, and he’ll suddenly see a rosy future for satellite radio . . . which of course it’s had all along.
The only thing that I don’t understand is why the shareholders buy into GS’s garbage? There are enough banks and analysts reasonably bullish on satellite radio provided the stock price is not in the pennies. The company’s equity alone should far exceed the $800mil market cap that GS intends to drive the stock down to, and add in $1+ billion and rising revenues and near term positive cash flow and profits – how do you justify a 0.25 share price? The only thing that can counter their smear campaign (other than an SEC investigation that is obviously not going to happen) is to not sell at their scandalously manipulated estimates!
Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities
Item 3.02. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities.
We have agreed to issue an aggregate of 65,193,000 shares of our common stock, par value $0.001 per share, in exchange for $19,500,000 principal amount of our 21/2% Convertible Notes due 2009 (the "21/2% Notes") beneficially owned by institutional holders.
We will not receive any cash proceeds as a result of the exchange of our common stock for the 21/2% Notes, which notes will be retired and cancelled.
Upon completion of this transaction we will have issued an aggregate of 132,231,070 shares of common stock in exchange for $50,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 21/2% Notes. We executed these transactions to reduce our debt and interest cost, increase our equity, and improve our balance sheet. We may engage in additional exchanges in respect of our outstanding indebtedness if and as favorable opportunities arise.
The issuance of the shares of our common stock was made pursuant to the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, contained in Section 3(a)(9) of such Act.
Ok, enough of that, but I just had to give my two cents about how much I find it surprising that a big firm, well....ok, big honest firm like Goldman could have whimpering guys tracking penny, sorry, nickel stocks like Siri.
I have been a staunch defender of the company and remain bullish. But I see this move, though not necessarily negative, as a reluctant last stand. Why? Because if they didn't do this a month ago when the stock was worth much more, why now? Granted, the global economy has been derailed recently and they didn't expect this outcome. But this is their last card of the deck, unless they get the proxy approved. Again, not necessarily negative because the balance sheet will improve.
I must agree that the balance sheet is improving as we speak. The plan is becoming more clear. I think you are right about setting up for an impressive quarter.
Long Sirius
great comment and agree completely with the wonderment of Weinkes compulsion with this company in taking it down, makes no sense unless their is a little birdie on his shoulder advising him on his releases and a hope for cheap stock in paying of Feb converts.
Gekko13
I think the reason they couldn't get into these kind of agreements, and they are agreements to exchange not exchanges, is that the Feb 09, 2-1/2's don't have any "early payment" stipulations. This is what is allowing GS to hold out and get more shares for their 127M when they exchange. It is their motivation to keep the stock price low. They convert on the day of maturity. Mel can get his pound of flesh with GS by exchanging shares with all of the other bond holders and then paying COH for the 127M to GS. I wouldn't be surprised to see this kind of action. This recent exchange does price the shares at .299 / share. If they can get rid of the debt this way and not RS then shareholders in the Medium and Long term will benefit greatly. Short term we got what we got until answers and execution come to fruition.
Won't be around much today, Good Luck on your trading. For what its worth low volume on level two in premarket, SP might just float around here today drifting to the new share exchange price eventually..... The last share exchange price announced was .45 and we didn't break through that in recent up days......JMO...
Remember our last tally was 1.1B - .0305B = 1.0695B
Todays numbers are - .0195B = 1.0500B
Last time we tallied, the statement was issues by Siri.
"We may engage in additional exchanges in respect of our
outstanding indebtedness if and as favorable opportunities arise."
I guess a favorable opportunity arose!
If you take away the .425B estimated savings our new number would be 1.05B - .425B = .625B.
Another day, Another 19.5Million dollars.
This has been a public service announcement by the Big Blue Dog!
I think the only problem with this is that they may wait as long as possible,,,why hand over CASH 2 months before they need to??????? Unless is saves enough monthly interest on that debt?? anyone??
163888,
That $50 mil is debt converted for shares,,,,,,,,SIRI won't see any of it in cash..........
I have been playing around with this idea myself. If we can refi at least the debt which comes due in Feb, we would create a much needed cushion for Sirius.
I am a banker and I network with a few attorneys who could help us with the process.
It is time to take a stand. As shareholders, all we are doing is crying as the vultures are raping this company. If you want to save Sirius and your investments, do something about it. $300 million / 1 million shareholders=$300/shar... I'll buy insurance for $300 on the money I invested in Sirius(to embarrassed to mention how much).
What we should do to start with is to BUY A HALF A PAGE ADVERTISEMENTwith a major newpaper, calling out Sirius investors to contact us (WE CAN SET UP A WEBSITE-ANYONE A WEB-DESIGNER?) about shareholder refinancing. I know a VP in advertising at USA Today, maybe we can get a discounted rate. We can set up an escrow account through an attorney and start collecting the funds. We have 3 full months to do this if we act now.
We can do this.
It is my first time on this site, so I do not know who Michael Hartleib is, but I will be contacting you at SaveSirius@gmail.com
I am done feeling sorry for myself, and I am ready to help this company and our investments survive. If I am going down, it will not be without a fight. Who is with me?
You know what? We could raise funds ourself, get the approval and assurance from the board of Sirius that they will reimburse us when the company starts posting profits and place advertisements on TV, disclosing that this advertisement was paid for by Sirius shareholders.
Also, it is ok if we contact Icahn, but I do not expect much of a help from that direction financially. (The guy could be shorting Sirius for all we know) He could advise us on strategy though. He definitely shook things up at Yahoo.
What we need to do is contact COI's or centers of influence who have a vested interest and can make a difference. I am talking Howard Stern, Oprah and so on. We could ask them to participate in our quest to raise the money. Starpower would bring a lot of attention to our cause. We could also organize a Sirius promotion day, where people would get to meet the voices behind the microfone and sign up for the program on the spot.
Why aren't these things happening already? Does Sirius still have an ad/promo department?
Anybody who has any positive ideas, let's hear it and save this company.
I have a problem with "lending" the company money when the CEO is worth hundreds of millions, and the rest of the board of directors are multi-millionaires. If I have to take it up the ass I will. But I'm not gonna lube it up for them beforehand.
and anyone under 1.50 can probably feel ok for a couple of years , no sweat
It's the over 2 bucks ( or more , 3.50 like me ) that are still in trouble ...even long long term ( 10 years )
and GS can make a killing @ 1.00 in the future , so while they may turn "bullish" , after accumulation enough shares .....Weinkes would have to be Zeus to pull us up to 4 bucks ( not entirely out of the question for that SOB however !!!!! ) ........but 4 is a pipe dream from here
LISTEN.
Put your pencils away, put your "what are they really doing" theories back on the Hitchcock channel and get a grip.
Bottom line: Siri will be a 6.00 stock before you get your suntans back next summer. Stop fretting. And buy stock in Ford. It's about to bust out.
" In an unprecedented , and unorthodox move , Sirius shareholders have banded together , and created a half billion dollar trust fund , dedicated strictly to remove Sirius' debt , and to make capital operating expenses , while Sirius climbes to profitability ...The stock has sky-rocketed 20 fold to 6.00 a share , with no dilution , and no reverse split ......Sirius shareholders are quoted as saying , ' It cost me 500 dollars , and I made 50,000 on the PPS today ' .....Mel is happy , shareholders are happy , GS is happy , and now we can all enjoy Howard's perverted sex dwarf antics with peace of mind "
And Ford is going to " Bust Out " to what ????? 2.50 ?????
partly joking there , Ford could be a good buy right now
GM too for that matter
but Detroit had better get their asses out of the 1950's , and join the rest of us in 2009 .........steal some frickin' Toyotas and Hondas , and copy those suckers ......I don't even think Hybrids are all that necessary , if you just build a decent 35mpg 4 banger .........Hybrids add 10,000 to the price of the vehicle anyway , not to mention , people are going to crap when they have to repair a Hybrid , or buy new batteries for it .........gas savings will be totally null and void , after repair bills ............and GM builds a Hybrid Escalade for 75,000 dollars ..........now there's a car for the masses !!!!!!! ( However I am sure the US guv will buy plenty for Presidential Motorcades )
Siri has been hammered down for a massive reason. Nothing to do with the joe blow stock holder. Stock movement is far more relevant to suit and tie folks who have more invested in them than you make in five years of working!
F is about to shoot through the roof. There is a reason they just called back 1000 employees. There is a reason they announced a massive, last-minute production of their 2009 line.
Mark my word. SIRI and F. Hide and watch.
On Oct 31 11:33 AM shure46 wrote:
> fendercamp - and can you come up with any reason WHY Siri will be
> 6 bucks by next summer ?????? Are we talking 6 bucks after a reverse
> split ???? Hell we all know that !!!!!!!
>
> And Ford is going to " Bust Out " to what ????? 2.50 ?????
>
> partly joking there , Ford could be a good buy right now
> GM too for that matter
> but Detroit had better get their asses out of the 1950's , and join
> the rest of us in 2009 .........steal some frickin' Toyotas and Hondas
> , and copy those suckers ......I don't even think Hybrids are all
> that necessary , if you just build a decent 35mpg 4 banger .........Hybrids
> add 10,000 to the price of the vehicle anyway , not to mention ,
> people are going to crap when they have to repair a Hybrid , or buy
> new batteries for it .........gas savings will be totally null and
> void , after repair bills ............and GM builds a Hybrid Escalade
> for 75,000 dollars ..........now there's a car for the masses !!!!!!!
> ( However I am sure the US guv will buy plenty for Presidential Motorcades
> )
Just like that,,,,,SIRI will have a $20+ bil market cap...
Yea, that's believable,,,,,I mean it's ONLY 66x next years earnings (which may not even be possible)................