Will the MacWorld Expo Apple Stock Correlation Continue?

I started writing about the MacWorld Expo Apple (AAPL) Stock correlation back in January 14, 2007, in an article called the 'MacWorld Expo Apple Stock Price Indicator' which I have been following for years. This is the stock trend which has historically shown that the price of Apple Computer stock increases as the San Francisco MacWorld Expo convention approaches. My previous articles described how in the previous five out of the last six years, Apple Computer stock has increased by at least 8% and as much as 37%, measured from November 15 to the last day of the Expo in January.

What causes this to happen? Probably strong year-end sales of Apple products from holiday shopping, anticipation and release of new products to be released at the Expo, and the heavy promotion of the MacWorld Expo which is indirect stock promotion. As I mentioned in a previous article, 'the product buzz created the stock buzz.'

The following table shows the results since 2001. A few notes about this analysis. For the 2008 Expo, the stock was down slightly, although on January 15 at the beginning of the conference, the stock closed higher than the previous November 15 date. This just looks at the 'effect' of the MacWorld Expo in San Francisco, not New York or Boston. If a date fell on a weekend, it was moved to the next business day to determine pricing. All prices were adjusted for splits and all returns rounded to the nearest percent.

11/15/2001 ...... 9.73 ..... 1/11/2002 ..... 10.52 ....... 8%

11/15/2002 ...... 7.97 ..... 1/10/2003 ...... 7.36 ...... -8%

11/15/2003 ..... 10.56 ...... 1/8/2004 ..... 11.50 ....... 9%

11/15/2004 ..... 27.62 ..... 1/14/2005 ..... 35.10 ..... 27%

11/15/2005 ..... 62.28 ..... 1/13/2006 ..... 85.59 ..... 37%

11/15/2006 ..... 84.05 ..... 1/12/2007 ..... 94.62 ..... 13%

11/15/2007 .....164.30 ..... 1/18/2008 ..... 161.36 ... -1.8%

Average Return .................................................. 12%

By the way, Apple was one of my screaming buys.

Keep in mind that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. No recommendation is expressed or implied.

Disclosure: Author owns AAPL.

Comments

[michiganjake:]

Interesting article. Strong earning adds to the upside as well. Plus a lot of buying by the mutual funds and hedge funds at that time of year also contributes to the annual run up. Judging by the last couple of days volume and uptick it appears the big boys are starting to nibble on Apple again. My guess is that it will be running up slowly as it has in the past with a peak around the end of December or early January.

2008 Oct 29 11:12 AM

[i39gy783jf5:]

'Apple Computer'? Get real. At least you could get the frigging company name right.

2008 Oct 29 01:23 PM