Looking at moving averages and price rate of change of US key asset categories in the short-term over periods ranging from 1-year to 5-days; mid-cap stocks, consumer cyclicals and municipal bonds look best at this time.
Utilities look worst of the alternatives.
Clearly, there are other fundamental, valuation, thematic and macro issues to evaluate; but these raw performance figures are useful ingredients in an overall thought process.
Each table presents ten data points:
- last close divided by the 21 day average (1 month)
- last close divided by the 63 day average (3 months)
- last close divided by the 252 day average (1 year)
- 21 day average divided by the 63 day average
- 63 day average divided by the 252 day average
- 5 day rate of change
- 10 day rate of change
- 21 day rate of change
- 63 day rate of change
- 252 day rate of change.
Figure 1 examines US ETFs by market-cap and investment style.
|XLG||US Russell 50 Largest Stocks|
|OEF||US S&P 100 Largest Stocks|
|SPY||US S&P 500 LC Stocks|
|MDY||US S&P 400 MC Stocks|
|IWM||US Russell 2000 SC Stocks|
|IWF||Russell 1000 Growth|
|IWD||Russell 1000 Value|
|DVY||US Dividend Stocks|
Figure 2 examines US large-cap sectors.
|XLB||Sector: Basic Materials|
|VGT||Sector: Info. Tech.|
|XLP||Sector: Consumer Staples|
|XLY||Sector: Consumer Cyclicals|
|VNQ||Sector: Equity REITs|
|AMJ||Sectors: Pipelines (mostly)|
Figure 3 examines US fixed income (including preferred stocks).
|SHV||Treas < 1 Year|
|VCSH||ST Corp Bonds|
|VCIT||IT Corp Bonds|
|VCLT||LT Corp Bonds|
|IEF||IT Treas (1-10 Yr)|
|CSJ||1-3 Year Corp Bonds|
|LQD||IT Inv Grade Corp Bonds|
|HYG||HY Corp Bonds|
For the moving averages, the shading in the tables is green if the ratio of the price to the average or the average to another average is 1 or more, and pink if below 1. For the rates of change, the shading is green if the change is positive, and pink if negative.
click to enlarge images
Disclosure: QVM has positions in MDY, CSJ, LQD, HYG, and PFF in some managed accounts as of the creation date of this article (November 24, 2012). We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article, but are compensated retroactively by Seeking Alpha based on readership of this specific article.
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