Mid-Cap, Consumer Cyclicals And Municipal Bonds Doing Best In U.S. For Now

Includes: MDY, MUB, XLU, XLY
by: Richard Shaw

Looking at moving averages and price rate of change of US key asset categories in the short-term over periods ranging from 1-year to 5-days; mid-cap stocks, consumer cyclicals and municipal bonds look best at this time.

Utilities look worst of the alternatives.

Clearly, there are other fundamental, valuation, thematic and macro issues to evaluate; but these raw performance figures are useful ingredients in an overall thought process.

Each table presents ten data points:

  • last close divided by the 21 day average (1 month)
  • last close divided by the 63 day average (3 months)
  • last close divided by the 252 day average (1 year)
  • 21 day average divided by the 63 day average
  • 63 day average divided by the 252 day average
  • 5 day rate of change
  • 10 day rate of change
  • 21 day rate of change
  • 63 day rate of change
  • 252 day rate of change.

Figure 1 examines US ETFs by market-cap and investment style.

Symbol Description
XLG US Russell 50 Largest Stocks
OEF US S&P 100 Largest Stocks
SPY US S&P 500 LC Stocks
MDY US S&P 400 MC Stocks
IWM US Russell 2000 SC Stocks
IWF Russell 1000 Growth
IWD Russell 1000 Value
DVY US Dividend Stocks

Figure 2 examines US large-cap sectors.

Symbol Description
XLB Sector: Basic Materials
XLE Sector: Energy
XLF Sector: Financials
XLI Sector: Industrials
VOX Sector: Telecomm
VGT Sector: Info. Tech.
XLP Sector: Consumer Staples
XLU Sector: Utilities
XLV Sector: Healthcare
XLY Sector: Consumer Cyclicals
VNQ Sector: Equity REITs
AMJ Sectors: Pipelines (mostly)

Figure 3 examines US fixed income (including preferred stocks).

Symbol Description
SHV Treas < 1 Year
BSV ST Bonds
BIV IT Bonds
BLV LT Bonds
VCSH ST Corp Bonds
VCIT IT Corp Bonds
VCLT LT Corp Bonds
IEF IT Treas (1-10 Yr)
CSJ 1-3 Year Corp Bonds
LQD IT Inv Grade Corp Bonds
HYG HY Corp Bonds
MUB Municipal Bonds
PFF Preferred Stocks

For the moving averages, the shading in the tables is green if the ratio of the price to the average or the average to another average is 1 or more, and pink if below 1. For the rates of change, the shading is green if the change is positive, and pink if negative.

click to enlarge images

Figure 1:

Figure 2:

Figure 3:

Disclosure: QVM has positions in MDY, CSJ, LQD, HYG, and PFF in some managed accounts as of the creation date of this article (November 24, 2012). We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article, but are compensated retroactively by Seeking Alpha based on readership of this specific article.

General Disclaimer: This article provides opinions and information, but does not contain recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Do your own research or obtain suitable personal advice. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. This article is presented subject to our full disclaimer found on the QVM site available here.