Seeking Alpha
What is your profession? ×
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)

Looking at moving averages and price rate of change of US key asset categories in the short-term over periods ranging from 1-year to 5-days; mid-cap stocks, consumer cyclicals and municipal bonds look best at this time.

Utilities look worst of the alternatives.

Clearly, there are other fundamental, valuation, thematic and macro issues to evaluate; but these raw performance figures are useful ingredients in an overall thought process.

Each table presents ten data points:

  • last close divided by the 21 day average (1 month)
  • last close divided by the 63 day average (3 months)
  • last close divided by the 252 day average (1 year)
  • 21 day average divided by the 63 day average
  • 63 day average divided by the 252 day average
  • 5 day rate of change
  • 10 day rate of change
  • 21 day rate of change
  • 63 day rate of change
  • 252 day rate of change.

Figure 1 examines US ETFs by market-cap and investment style.

XLGUS Russell 50 Largest Stocks
OEFUS S&P 100 Largest Stocks
SPYUS S&P 500 LC Stocks
MDYUS S&P 400 MC Stocks
IWMUS Russell 2000 SC Stocks
IWFRussell 1000 Growth
IWDRussell 1000 Value
DVYUS Dividend Stocks

Figure 2 examines US large-cap sectors.

XLBSector: Basic Materials
XLESector: Energy
XLFSector: Financials
XLISector: Industrials
VOXSector: Telecomm
VGTSector: Info. Tech.
XLPSector: Consumer Staples
XLUSector: Utilities
XLVSector: Healthcare
XLYSector: Consumer Cyclicals
VNQSector: Equity REITs
AMJSectors: Pipelines (mostly)

Figure 3 examines US fixed income (including preferred stocks).

SHVTreas < 1 Year
VCSHST Corp Bonds
VCITIT Corp Bonds
VCLTLT Corp Bonds
IEFIT Treas (1-10 Yr)
CSJ1-3 Year Corp Bonds
LQDIT Inv Grade Corp Bonds
HYGHY Corp Bonds
MUBMunicipal Bonds
PFFPreferred Stocks

For the moving averages, the shading in the tables is green if the ratio of the price to the average or the average to another average is 1 or more, and pink if below 1. For the rates of change, the shading is green if the change is positive, and pink if negative.

click to enlarge images

Figure 1:

Figure 2:

Figure 3:

Disclosure: QVM has positions in MDY, CSJ, LQD, HYG, and PFF in some managed accounts as of the creation date of this article (November 24, 2012). We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article, but are compensated retroactively by Seeking Alpha based on readership of this specific article.

General Disclaimer: This article provides opinions and information, but does not contain recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Do your own research or obtain suitable personal advice. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. This article is presented subject to our full disclaimer found on the QVM site available here.