Analog Devices (NYSE:ADI) is due to report Q4 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Capital IQ expect the company to post a profit of $0.57 per share on revenue of $697 million.
ADI has shown a consistent tendency to widen its next-day move after an after-hours earnings release, doing so in 20 of the last 30 events we've tracked.
Looking deeper into the performance data, ADI has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 17 of the 30 quarters we have tracked. In 11 of those quarters, 65% of the time, ADI has followed the evening downside move with a deeper move in the red in the following day's regular session - a stock for shorts to watch on any drop in evening trade.
On the plus-side, ADI has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 13 of the 30 quarters tracked, adding to its evening advance in next-day regular session action in nine of those events, about 69% of the time.
On Aug. 21, 2012, ADI edged down 0.4% in night trade after missing on Q3 and setting its Q4 guidance lower. The stock added to its downside the next day, closing off 1.6% in the Aug. 22 regular session.
On May 22, 2012, ADI declined 2.2% in after-hours action after beating on Q2 but issuing guidance in-line to below estimates. The stock cut its declines the next day, ending the May 23 regular session off 0.3%.
On Feb. 22, 2012, the stock dropped 2% in evening trade after ADI posted disappointing results and guidance. The decline narrowed slightly the next day as ADI closed the Feb. 23 regular session down 1.2%.
On Nov. 21, 2011, ADI declined 3% in after-hours trade after reporting lower-than-expected results and guidance. The stock reversed direction the next day, ending the Nov. 22 regular session up 1%.
On Aug. 16, 2011, ADI declined 3% in evening trade after missing on Q3 and guiding Q4 results below Street estimates. The stock reversed direction the following day, closing the Aug. 17 regular session up 1%.
On May 17, 2011, ADI advanced 4.1% in after-hours trade after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock firmed higher in the May 18 regular session, closing up 5.8%.
On Feb. 15, 2011, ADI edged up 0.8% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 expectations. The stock lost its upside the following day, closing the Feb. 16 regular session with a modest 0.4% decline.
On Nov. 22, 2010, ADI edged up 0.2% in evening trade after topping Q4 expectations and setting its Q1 EPS outlook in line with expectations. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Nov. 23 regular session down 0.7%.
On Aug. 17, 2010, ADI advanced 1.6% in after-hours action after beating Q3 expectations. The stock added to its upside the next day, closing the Aug. 18 regular session up 4.4%.
On May 18, 2010, ADI gained 2.4% in after-hours trade following the company's Q2 earnings beat. The company also raised its dividend 10%. Shares added to those gains the next day, closing the regular session up 4.2%.
On Feb. 17, 2010, ADI rose 2.5% in after-hours activity after reporting better-than-expected Q1 results and guidance. The stock extended during the next day's regular session, closing up 4.1%.
On Nov. 23, 2009, ADI edged up 0.8% in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock leaped higher the following day, ending the Nov. 24 regular session up 6.4%.
On Aug. 18, 2009, the stock declined 4.7% after reporting a beat and guiding mostly above the Street for Q4. Shares rebounded to gain 2.1% the next day.
On May 19, 2009, ADI jumped 7.8% in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. It surged higher the following day, ending up 15.7% in the May 20 regular session.
On Feb. 18, 2009, ADI declined 0.8% in after-hours trade despite topping Q1 expectations. It added to its downside the following day, ending the Feb. 19 regular session down 3.1%.
On Nov. 24, 2008, ADI declined 3.4% in after-hours trade after beating Q4 expectations and issuing earnings guidance below the Street view. The stock added to its declines the next day, losing 6.7% by the Nov. 25 closing bell.
On Aug. 19, 2008, the stock fell 3% during evening trading after EPS missed by a penny. The loss swelled to 8.8% the next day.
On May 20, 2008, the stock fell 1.5% during evening trading after ADI beat Q2 expectations and guided in line to above the Street. The loss increased to 4% the following day.
On Feb. 20, 2008, the stock gained 3.7% in evening trading after ADI reported shy with revenue. The stock gained 3.2% the next day.
On Nov. 27, 2007, the stock gained 2.5% during evening hours after ADI reported in line with EPS and offered mixed guidance. The gain improved to 3.2% the next day.
On Aug 21, 2007, ADI dipped 1.3% in night trade despite topping Q3 estimates. Its guidance was mixed. Shares eased slightly more the next day, ending the regular session down 2.2%.
On May 22, 2007, the stock fell 5.9% in the evening hours after the company reported Q2 revenue up over the year-ago period but earnings edge lower. The loss was a steeper 9.9% the next day.
On Feb. 21, 2007, the stock gained 5.1% in the evening hours after an earnings miss but sales that beat. The gain expanded to 10.4% the next day.
On Nov. 14, 2006, the stock gained 5.6% in the evening session, largely on the company's guidance. The stock was up 1.6% the next day, however.
On Aug. 10, 2006, the stock tumbled 11.7% in the evening hours after the company reported Q3 results that missed the Street's view. The loss deepened to 16.2% the next day.
On May 11, 2006, ADI edged up 2% in after hours when the company reported Q2 sales in line with expectations and guided for Q3 to be above Street views. The shares strengthened further the next day, ending the regular session up 3.8%.
On February 9, 2006, ADI lost 3% in the night session after missing Q1 sales estimates and forecasting for Q2 revenues to be below Street views. The shares fell further the next day, ending the regular session down 4%.
On Nov. 15, 2005, shares fell 1.3% in the evening session after the company reported Q4 revs of $622 million, vs. the FC mean of $615 million. EPS were $0.36 per share. The FC mean was $0.34 per share. Focus was on reduced guidance and shares fell a slightly wider 1.8% the next day.
On Aug. 11, 2005, shares fell 1% on a report of Q3 revs of $582.4 million and EPS Of $0.32 per share, vs. the FC mean of $583 million in revs and EPS of $0.31 per share. Guidance was about in line. Shares declined 3% during the regular session the following day.
On Feb. 10, 2005, the stock shed 1% on word Q1 revenue fell 4% to $580.5 million, below the $587 million FC mean. EPS was $0.28, below the $0.29 FC mean. ADI also guided lower. Shares bounced back to record a 3.3% advance the next day.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.