With the Greek deal out of the way, the euro bulls have been dreaming about another run towards higher key levels like 1.3100 or maybe 1.3200; nothing seems more unrealistic at this juncture.
The market axiom "buy the rumor, sell the fact" seemed to have inspired market participants, and what a priori was all high hopes and rosy, all of a sudden it has become an avalanche of sell orders that, along with a later speech by the hawkish Fed member Richard Fisher, have condemned the cross to free-fall from post-deal tops around 1.3010 to levels sub 1.2920. Accentuating the bearishness orbiting the single currency, the U.S. Consumer Confidence climbed to levels last seen in February 2008, revitalizing the greenback.
… A trip southwards
Despite the deal in Greece, the market still floats the idea that this is just a quick fix, as late unveiled by analysts and traders questioning the long-term sustainability of the Greek debt, with details yet to be solved regarding the debt buyback, and the IMF scrutinizing the situation with distrustful eyes. The EUR/USD is now with empty hands and today's (Wednesday) lack of any market-mover in the euro bloc would encourage the cross to look for catalysts in external factors, like the USD for instance.
Who will take the relay now? Spain? Not likely, as recent stability in the domestic debt markets keeps proving that President Mariano Rajoy is right: Madrid would not need any rescue package at the moment. This scenario is shared by UBS's analyst Mansoor Mohi-uddin, who argues that a request of financial aid by the Spanish government would be a fact in the upcoming months, initially supporting the euro via the ECB's OMT program. However, the analyst sees the Mediterranean country missing its fiscal targets once more in 2013, increasing the selling pressure on the shared currency and therefore dragging the cross to the 1.20 figure.
Technically speaking, the Bullish Percentage Index, developed by our research team, is retreating from recent highs, although still navigating the overbought territory. At the moment, 78.95% of euro-based pairs are still in bullish mode, according to point and figure patterns.
… What Thursday brings to the table
Interesting docket ahead for the 17-nation bloc, as the jobless rate in Germany would precede a measure of business confidence in Italy followed by a key 10-yr bond auction. Later on during the European morning, EMU's measure of business climate, and consumer/industrial/services confidence will also be published.