Commodities Dropping to 52-Year Low

By Mike Caggeso

Commodity prices are bracing for their worst month in 52 years as global demand continues to slide.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index - a measure of 19 global commodities from light crude to lean hogs - fell 24% in October, Bloomberg reports.

"October is at last ending - the worst month in commodity history," Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, told Bloomberg. "Investors are expecting lower growth for the longer term and that is putting prices under pressure."

The news came one day after the revelation that the U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the third quarter, and on the very same day that the government announced consumer spending tumbled 0.3% in September - meaning the world’s largest economy is struggling to produce and purchase.

It also continues a steady, months-long decline of commodity prices.

The past year’s inflation epidemic has waned significantly because consumer spending and demand has significantly cooled.

Prices for staple foods such as corn, soybeans and wheat have all come down from their record highs in near perfect harmony.

Corn futures are down nearly 50% from their summer high of $8 per bushel. Same story and stats for soybeans and wheat, the latter hitting a 16-month low in mid-October.

Gas prices have fallen 37.1% from their July 17 high of $4.114 a gallon.

Not coincidentally, gold has fallen 21.1% in that same time frame. 

Short-term prices are likely to continue to wane or tread water, as economies around the world are hording their pennies and trying to build capital to start buying again.

"The outlook for demand remains weak while we wait for economic rescue measures to feed their way through the system," Christopher Bellew, senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London, told Bloomberg. "Even in emerging markets the growth there is likely to be lower than was previously expected."

Original post

Comments

[romang:]

I think it is related to supply and demand. People are buying less so the producers buy less driving the prices down. Its that same thing that happened in the oil market. Plus, there is no reason the price of wheat should stay up. The reason it went up was of the price of gas.

2008 Nov 02 11:37 AM

[Old Trader:]

Romang,

I'm not following your reasoning at all. People buying less/producers producing less would result in equlibrium, unless consumption drops MUCH more MUCH quicker than production declines. I'll grant there's probably a lag factor (production doesn't drop until there's a significant drop in demand).

WTF does the price of gas have to do with the price of wheat? I'd like to hear your reasoning for that statement. I'd submit that the only correlation would be as the result of a general unwinding of the long commodities/short dollar trade (hence, an across the board drop in commodity prices).

2008 Nov 02 12:57 PM

[jaq:]

wtf used to be wth. wtw started this coarse obscenity? Find 'em,take their money, castrate 'em, hang 'em.

2008 Nov 02 06:14 PM

[Alex_G:]

Old Trader,

Producers buy the commodity. Buying less of the end product reduces the price of the input.

High gas prices increased the price of corn (in theory), which increased the price of a subsitute, wheat.

2008 Nov 03 07:55 PM