Seeking Alpha

Jeff Wilson


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With plug-in electric cars starting to ship, and many more scheduled to come online in the next few years, the market for electric vehicle batteries is heating up.

Electric vehicles put new demands on batteries. In particular, batteries need to hold a lot of energy (to go a long distance on a single charge) and they need to have a long life (years of dependable service).

Battery technology has progressed quickly, especially in the past decade. The familiar “car battery” (e.g. the Sears Diehard) has been with us for over a century. It is heavy and doesn’t hold a lot of energy, which is to say that a car powered with lead-acid batteries won’t go far on a single charge. In addition, the battery is likely to wear out after only a few hundred charge/discharge cycles.

Next came NiCad (nickel-cadmium) batteries. These are what power your electric shaver and your cordless phone. They hold more energy per pound than lead-acid batteries, and can go thru several hundred charge/discharge cycles. A peculiar downside is that they have a “memory effect” where they loose their power-holding capacity if they aren’t fully discharged before being recharged.

The big breakthrough was NiMH (nickel-metal hydride) batteries. This technology was developed by a very bright and energetic older gentleman named Stanford Ovshinsky. It was truly a game changer. NiMH batteries were first tried in the electric vehicles used in California several years ago. In 1999, General Motors used NiMH batteries in the EV-1 electric vehicle, giving the car a range of 140 miles. Southern California Edison put a combined 7 million miles on 320 electric Toyota RAV4’s, and concluded that the NiMH battery would last 130,000 to 150,000 miles. Ovonics was acquired by Energy Conversion Devices (NASDAQ: ENER). In 1994, GM bought 60% of ECD, and then in 2000 Texaco bought GM’s share of ECD, and in a 50/50 partnership with ECD, created a spinoff battery company called Cobasys (which owns the patent to NiMH technology). Shortly thereafter, Texaco was acquired by Chevron (NYSE: CVX).

Carmakers today are mostly focused on lithium batteries. In the past several years lithium batteries have become the standard for laptops and cell phones, because they hold the most charge of commonly available batteries. Tesla Motors, which started shipping it’s first electric car this year, leveraged the existing battery technology by making a battery pack out of 6800 lithium batteries, each of which are about the size of a standard “AA” penlight battery.

Three other companies are working on lithium battery technology for electric vehicles. General Electric (NYSE: GE) has become an investor in A123 Systems. A123 has developed a technology called Nanophosphate™ lithium ion. In March of this year the Norwegian electric car maker Think signed a contract with A123 to supply batteries for one of its cars. A123 is also under consideration as a supplier for the new Chevy Volt.

Electrovaya (Toronto: ELF.TO) has licensed Exxon Mobil’s (NYSE: XOM) new lithium battery membrane technology. Electrovaya will be producing some electric vehicles itself, and has also contracted to supply lithium batteries to carmakers Tata and Miljo from a manufacturing facility in Norway.

Altair Nanotechnologies (NASDAQ: ALTI) has developed a lithium battery technology called Nanosafe™. Altair is supplying batteries to carmaker Phoenix Motorcars. The outstanding thing about the Altair batteries is how quickly they can be charged. The cars produced by Phoenix can go 130 to 250 miles on a charge, but can be recharged in as little as 10 minutes. This is likely to be a game changer for electric cars in general, and set a new standard that all electric automakers must strive toward.

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This article has 34 comments:

  •  
    Electric vehicles are great, but they are going to create the next major catastrophy if we do not act immediately. A Prius takes 36kwh to charge. Multiply that times several hundred thousand. Now add in the average household using 8% more electricity then we did ten years ago. Now equate in no new power plant. In MIchigan we have been trying to get permits for eight new much needed plants for many years. Forbes and The Associated Press both have had articles recently warning about brown and blackouts in the near future. Even though wind and solar may be more expensive, they are our only option to augement power during peak demand periods. Solar produces the most when the power companies are at full capacity. This is on hot sunny days when everyone has their airconditioning on.
    Check out michigansolarsolutions... - mss blog and fun facts sections
    2008 Nov 02 09:12 AM | Link | Reply
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    Now all we need is a clear answer to global lithium supply questions.

    news.cnet.com/8301-111...
    2008 Nov 02 09:35 AM | Link | Reply
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    electric hybrids and pure electric cars are great. let's hope the new obama administration will have the political will to strongly encourage and their production and adoption, as opposed to governmental policies in the past which have actually encouraged SUV production (and now the US taxpayer will be bailing out those idiots).

    however, as someone earlier pointed out, these electric transportation solutions need charging, and a back of the envelop calculation on replacting just 25% of our foreign imports used for gasoline is one tremendous energy challenge. that is why the *only* economically viable solution for a country as energy challenged as the US is a strategic, long-term, comprehensive energy policy like this one:

    thefitzman.blogspot.co...
    2008 Nov 02 10:07 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    nobody said a mumbling word about the Firefly graphite-foam battery. Fast recharge time, no exotic costly materials, good recyclability, higher energy density per square foot than lead-acid types, and high life expectancy. Also, many experts claim that the recharging of electric cars will mostly be done at night, when excess generating capacity exists. Mr. Ovan is on to something, and the venture capitalists are lining up as I speak
    2008 Nov 02 11:34 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Electric vehicle batteries are going to become a huge market, and are a great investment opportunity. There will be many opportunities as we switch our economy over to new forms of energy. To get a sense of the whole picture, I found the author’s book “The Manhattan Project of 2009” very interesting. Lots of facts I haven’t seen anywhere else; lots of new perspectives.’
    2008 Nov 02 12:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It looks like this will be a long, difficult shakeout for investors to navigate.
    I am impressed that it is possible to charge a large powerful bank of batteries in 10 minutes, but I am doubtful that most home circuits can handle that rate without expensive upgrades. I don't know, but I suspect that it would be greater than the equivalent of me turning on every appliance I have. The neighborhood I live in has already suffered outages that were due to increased usage. The upgrade to handle it has been very expensive. Rents have gone up as a result because it is a micro-utility. I would appreciate some mention of the cost to handle such large loads if a large percentage of autos were electric Are there estimates from the power companies?
    2008 Nov 02 02:02 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I think they should be a 500 mile race similar to the Indy race but only battery operated cars can race. This would give a quicker advance into the technology needed to push the industry. Make the purse huge enough to get a lot of interest.
    2008 Nov 02 05:32 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Great article Jeff! Your book is something we have been needing! It will be a help in making investment decisions about green technology for sure.
    2008 Nov 02 06:26 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Transfer of wealth issue with Lithium battery. According to GM website, vendor selection for the 'Volt' electric auto battery has been awarded to (2) suppliers out of 13 considered. The companies are Korean and German. The shift of money flowing out of the United States to support our gasoline needs will be merely change from Arab countries to 'other' countries to now support our need for lithium batteries. This does not make sense. The current and next generation battery systems must be supplied by domestic companies.
    2008 Nov 02 08:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Until EVs become quite common, you should be able to recharge an EV overnight without stressing out your house circuits or the existing utility grid, i.e., no retrofits required. However if you want a 10-minute recharge in the middle of the day .... Let's look at some numbers for your house circuit's charging capacity and the charge required by an EV.

    A typical 15A, 110V house circuit can provide about 1.5 kilowatts (kW). So from midnight to 6 am, this circuit could provide a 9 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of recharge, which would give 45 miles of electric range for a Prius sized car or 25 to 30 miles of range for a Ford Escape sized EV.
    These ranges are adequate for PHEVs since the average daily commute is less than 25 miles. If you want a 10-minute, 9 kWh recharge at home, you would need a 54 kW power source which exceeds a modern home's power panel total capability of 200A at 220V, or 44kW.

    The power grid is quite capable of supporting a large population of PHEVs which are recharged overnight. This is the conclusion of a 2006 study by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, under the U.S. Department of Energy:

    "For the United States as a whole, up to 84% of U.S. cars, pickup trucks, and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) could be supported by the existing infrastructure, although the local percentages vary by region. Using the LDV fleet classification, which includes cars, pickup trucks, SUVs, and vans, the technical potential is 73%. This has an estimated gasoline displacement potential of 6.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, or approximately 52% of the nation’s oil imports."

    www.pnl.gov/energy/eed...

    On Nov 02 02:02 PM vpratt wrote:

    > It looks like this will be a long, difficult shakeout for investors
    > to navigate.
    > I am impressed that it is possible to charge a large powerful bank
    > of batteries in 10 minutes, but I am doubtful that most home circuits
    > can handle that rate without expensive upgrades. I don't know, but
    > I suspect that it would be greater than the equivalent of me turning
    > on every appliance I have. The neighborhood I live in has already
    > suffered outages that were due to increased usage. The upgrade to
    > handle it has been very expensive. Rents have gone up as a result
    > because it is a micro-utility. I would appreciate some mention of
    > the cost to handle such large loads if a large percentage of autos
    > were electric Are there estimates from the power companies?
    2008 Nov 02 08:35 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Jeff,
    your book sounds interesting- I am wondering why there is not a mention of Geothermal Power plants in the link that describes your book? Have you included them in your research? If not, I recommend you do some research- it is not new technology, instead it is well-proven, and enjoying a tremendous resurgence in interest , and we have terrific resources to support it. Newer "Binary" method makes it possible to be 100% green, and also allows use of cooler-temperature resource to produce electricity. Another big advantage is they produce power 24/7 - and prices are some of the lowest, competitive with gas and coal plants, but with NO pollution.
    2008 Nov 02 09:13 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    when does the patent run out on nickel-hydride batteries? anyone know?
    2008 Nov 03 03:39 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    battery recharge - there should be a time-of-day pricing incentive to get people to do their recharge overnight when power availability is greatest.

    geothermal - the brines coproduced with the electricity are toxic and corrosive. there will be a disposal expense.
    > jack
    2008 Nov 03 08:20 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Its EFL.T, not ELF.T
    2008 Nov 03 09:38 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I thought Lithium batteries were frightfully expensive. I bought one for a phone. It cost $30. It would not turn a car engine one revolution. It would not run a headlight for 15 minutes. Of course there are efficiencies of scale, but they take development time, and that is costly, too. What gives?
    2008 Nov 03 10:33 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I have owned stock in Altair Technology from its early days of research on its "Nanosafe" lithium-titanate battery. I had recommended to the CEO at the time, that for the battery powered car to be a success it must go a minimum of 300 miles before a recharge is needed for vacation or business trip type driving. A city only car driving battery must do 150 miles to do any normal heavy driving. It should have a greater than 15 yr battery recharging life and not harm the enviromentt when disposal of battery is done. I would like to charge the battery at home using the normal 110 or 220v ac most homes are wired for and do it if possible in a short period of time of under 1hr. or so range time max. The consumer cost of replacing the electric car or truck, bus or train should after the research cost has been paid for be no greater than the current combustion power vehicles currently retail for.
    I am proud to say that the nano battery does have a life the testing indicates at least a 25 yr life and possibly more in the labs, the recharge time is 10 minutes full charge using 440v which indicates that the charging will need to be done at service stations wired up for this kind of power distribution and not at normal home setups. However you will be able to use 220v at home and it will take around 6 hrs to recharge battery then. (while you sleep at night). Their current released batteries available to the public motor cos will do 140 and 250 miles per charge.
    So this is one battery that is ready for the public vehicle mkt and charging infrastructure is easy to set up rapidly nationwide if special interest and politics don't delay or prevent it from happening soon. I also suggested to both candidates to build a nation wide 50 state (like the interstate hwy system was done) electric bullet train system to go coast to coast in 4 hrs on expresss trains and regular eurorail like trains for stopping at large towns to towns rail systems for freight and passengers. This would provide a large employment gain to our nation be a crash program and reduce our forgein oil imports by 20 to 25% within 10 yrs if we stop the political BS and delays and get with it. It will certainly have a big impact on the U.S. global warming status favorably.
    It will take you and all the american people to demand getting our sold out to special interest politicians to work on ouur countries behalf first and stop playing theatre to the folks and media. We can do it all within 10 to 15 yrs max if we are reallu dtermined to win big once again. PS. All contracts & contractors for this infrastructure program must make the equipment and have plants here in america to get a contract. The bailout will be a thing of the past, if we let natural economic law & mkt do it way of solving the bad decisions, greed and corruption of bad ceo's and cos, whose doors should close up or slim dow severly with new leaders, including directors working on shareholders behalf and not their pockets first. Yes we will have some pain due to stupidity of many, but America can do great things when its people select good leaders and we all keep the heat to their rears to make wise decisions in energy and use of natural ecomic law and solving many of our current problems. WE CA DO IT NOW!!
    2008 Nov 03 11:32 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    BACK IN THE LATE 70'S I WAS WITH A COMPANY THAT HAD AN ELECTRIC CAR BUILT, 5 PASSANGER, RADIO HEATER AND ON BOARD COMPUTER, TOP SPEED WAS 85 MPH AND WOULD GO 125 MILES ON
    LEAD ACID BATTERIES,,,WE DROVE THAT CAALL OVER THE WORLD
    HOT AND COLD , AND ;YOU KNOW WE COULD RECHARGE IN 8 HOURS AT 120 AND 5 HOURS ON 220,, MY QUESTION IS IF WE COULD DO THIS BACK 30 YEAR'S AGO, WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG TODAY, AND I WOULD HAVE TO BE PROVEN ON THE MILEAGE THEY SAY THEY ARE GETTING WHEN THEY TALK 140 TO OVER 200 PER CHARGE, MY ELECTRIC CAR THAT I DRIVE TODAY GET OVER 100 MILES ON A CHARGE AND IT LOOKS LIKE A DENO.
    THANKS
    TOM MITCHELL
    THOMASMITCHELL38@SPRIN...
    2008 Nov 03 01:54 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Jeff,
    Why no mention of Ener1 Inc? They are also making batteries for the Th!nk EV. In fact they have recently received a 35mill order from Th!nk for batteries. Has A123 received such a large order? No anouncements since March?
    2008 Nov 03 05:34 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Stockdragon, I have owned Altair from almost the very begging also. Got into Advanced Battery after they licensed the Tech for use in China. Losing on ALTI, made tons on ABAT (bought below $1)

    Do you have any inkling what that transfer of knowledge entailed. We won;t go into China and small batteries, you don't work with cars? So far thats what has happened but would like to know for sure.
    2008 Nov 03 05:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Script error problems on my end, don't have a clue why?
    2008 Nov 03 05:55 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Sorry, guys; can't help with the many ramifications of battery technology. But from many years of experience I have learned to trust GM and the UAW.
    2008 Nov 03 07:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    have you heard of the X-prize? NEDRA?


    On Nov 02 05:32 PM User 290300 wrote:

    > I think they should be a 500 mile race similar to the Indy race but
    > only battery operated cars can race. This would give a quicker advance
    > into the technology needed to push the industry. Make the purse
    > huge enough to get a lot of interest.
    2008 Nov 04 01:35 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Before everyone gets too enthusiastic about an all EV world, please consider that this wil be a very painful transition where Hundreds of thousands of people will lose their jobs, a Battery with wires vs pistons, sparkplugs, mufflers, exhaust pipes, oil change, mechanics, etc.

    Consumers will be happy, those that lose their jobs won't.
    2008 Nov 04 04:09 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If some people's jobs become redundant, surely new jobs will be created in lieu of them, in fact the ZAP factory that is being built in Franklin, Kentucky will bring in as many as 4000 jobs to the area.
    2008 Nov 04 11:39 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Ford, GM, Chrysler, even the Japanese plants, Midas, AutoNation, JiffyLube, Dealerships associated with all of them oh sure some replacements while the plants are being built but the Assembly line as we know it will be gone.

    Auto Insurers won't have a clue as how to insure them. New Liability claims, they won't make a sound, the Blind will have major problems
    2008 Nov 04 02:09 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Nice article Jeff!
    2008 Nov 04 05:44 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    •  • Website: http://www.evcast.com
    How much of the Prius Nimh cost is Patent rights? The chevron patent ends in 2010 correct? Prehaps Nimh will be much cheap when the patent is done, particularly with the crashing commodity prices.

    Fred from the EV talk capitol of MA
    2008 Nov 05 02:36 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    My new house will have a 240V 30A receptacle in the garage for when electric cars become readily available.
    <P>
    Almost all recently built houses here in the U.S. have 240V 100A service which should be sufficient to recharge an electric car completely overnight, even when electricity is being used for other purposes as well.
    2008 Nov 07 03:04 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If the demand for electric vehicle increases, wouldn't that also cause the demand for battery raw material to increase?

    Hopefully that will not deter the development of electric car for the masses.
    2008 Nov 08 07:39 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If the demand for electric vehicle increases, wouldn't that also cause the demand for battery raw material to increase?

    Hopefully that will not deter the development of electric car for the masses.
    2008 Nov 08 07:40 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The demand for battery raw material would increase, which may or may not be a problem.
    <P>
    There is some question about the availability of lithium. According to some sources, there would be insufficient supply; according to other sources, there would be enough. However, there are battery technologies which do not require lithium so, if a shortage of lithium developed, it is possible that the problem could be solved by using other types of batteries.
    2008 Nov 08 04:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    stockdragon, you are so right, it will take the average citizen to become more educated and proactive not to mention demanding. Very well written post!
    2008 Nov 23 02:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    And, now California is leading the pack in setting up an environment that promotes the use of electric cars, batteries will be perfected and we are taking one giant step towards becoming energy independent. I blown away to see this happening so fast! California cities getting infrastructure for electric cars how exciting is that? I say go California, Go Arnold Arnold Schwarzenegger, Go "Better Place", And Go America, let's get this show on the road!!!

    Check out this link to read the news. This is so exciting for those who realize the importance of seeing out country transfrom away from fossil fuels and to cleaner, cheaper electric cars. I read about this in the author's book after I heard him on a radio talk show interview. I am thrilled and surpriesed to see it taking place so soon. Link to news story below or simply type electric car infrastructure california or Better Place into search engine. freep.com/article/...
    2008 Nov 23 11:41 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The biggest battery technology breakthrough is EEStor but no mention, why? What is Cobasys doing with NiMH? Check out my web site. Its all green Investing stuff. Good luck to all! Dan
    2008 Dec 15 01:49 PM | Link | Reply