My What-If-Obama-Wins Portfolio 30 comments
-
Font Size:
-
Print
- TweetThis
Let's for a moment travel to one likely version of the near future. The date is November 4, the time around 11pm, and just moments ago all major news networks confirmed that Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States. Index futures plummet on fears that Obama's policies will hurt big business and increase taxes on the very wealthy.
But this is no time to panic. With any change comes opportunity. And with big change, the opportunities can be even more rewarding.
The first opportunity is clearly an investment in clean energy stocks. Obama talks a great deal about the need for clean energy and he has made it clear that the government should encourage the development of alternative energy fuels. When George W. Bush first mentioned alternative energy in his State of the Union address, those stocks skyrocketed the following day. If Obama is serious about developing new sources of energy, this might propel clean energy stocks on a new rally, despite falling price of oil.
A good hedge for this strategy might be to short the nuclear energy sector. Although Obama has hypothetically supported the increase in nuclear power, he will likely forgo this option for less politically explosive energy sources. Here is one way to set this strategy up: buy the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) while at the same shorting the Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR).
Another one of Obama's goals is to increase the minimum wage to $9.50. If this idea gains traction it could indicate a decrease in profits for America's fast food restaurants that rely heavily on their minimum wage workforce. On the other hand, family style franchise chains that already pay a higher salary and provide benefits will be less affected. The strategy here would be to short McDonald's Corp (MCD) and Burger King Holdings (BKC) while buying Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI) which owns the Red Lobster and Olive Garden restaurants.
Finally we get to Obama's proposed changes to defense spending. Counter to popular belief, Obama does not plan to drastically change defense spending. In fact, he has proposed to increase the size of the military by almost 100,000. Also, his desire to modernize America's armed forces could be good news for companies such as iRobot Corp (IRBT) that supply robots to the U.S military.
Disclosure: No position in stocks mentioned.
Related Articles
|
-
The Seeking Alpha 100
See allThe top 100 stock
market authors
selected for publication
Seeking Alpha 100 » -
Fastest Climbers
Authors with the largestSee all
increase in followers
in the last 7 days
Fastest Climbers » -
Top Commenters
Top commenters,See all
as ranked by their peers
Top Commenters » -
Top Instabloggers
The 100 most active
Instabloggers.-
1
David Fry
-
2
TraderMark
-
3
Don Dion
-
4
Cliff Wachtel
-
5
Mike Havrilla
Top Instabloggers » -
1
-
Top StockTalkers
TopSee all
StockTalkers.
Top StockTalkers »
This article has 30 comments:
> jack
Generic drug companies like Teva would definitely benefit.
Also, contrary to conventional wisdom, pharma companies having good patent protection like MRK will also benefit from Obama's expanded healthcare plan, which would increase volume.
Managed care firms like Humana etc would suffer.
> jack
Beautiful, because this is an option that can't be foregone if the US is going to solve its energy problem, The author makes it sound as if there is a choice, when in fact there is no choice at all if the goal is an optimal energy structure. Definitely more alternative energy, but on top of a larger nuclear base.
Ideology aside, how could anyone who studied great depression even consider a vote for Mr. Obama?
On Nov 03 10:12 AM prairiedog555 wrote:
> Raise tax's during a recession/depression, erect trade barriers and
> allow millions of unskilled workers to burden welfare system. <br/>Ideology
> aside, how could anyone who studied great depression even consider
> a vote for Mr. Obama?
Republicans can't run on their records so attacking with lies, smear, and fear is all they have to run on and it is ugly.
I'm selling my antique guns and getting more functional ones based on the actions of Hank & Ben. Those bozos are gonna run the ship of state into a whole field of icebergs.
In Sept, the Treasury and IRS loosened rules to allow banks that buy other banks to accelerate tax deductions for loan losses in the aquiree's portfolio. PNC may get a $5+ Billion tax break there. Great deal, yes ? The government gives them free money to buy other banks so they can reduce their taxes.
I used to think the Constitution required Congress to enact tax policy. Then again, the current admiistration hasn't bothered with the Constitution much for almost 8 years.
Bend over sheeple, here comes another government agent....
If BO wins, expect good pick ups on alternative energy I guess, along with medical and pharmaceutical stocks...IMO!
On Nov 03 11:17 AM Numerouno wrote:
> I don't know if the economy has always done better when a democrat
> is in office but I do know that the democrats are the reason that
> we're in this financial crisis. It's the democrats that supported
> the high risk mortgage lending, not the republicans. And if you do
> a little bit of background research about Obama, you'll see that
> people are idiots if they think he's the better choice for any reason.
October 31, 2008, Axelrod wrote " The GOP today is a bunch of greedy b'tards who do not want to pay their fair share." On the same article following this statement, OctoberDream stated, I agree with Axelrod.
Anomalies by Kingsdale.
I assume the rest of the crew agrees with Axelrod608.
Congress is controlled by the Democrats. Has been for 2 years. The American People hate Congress more than they hate Bush. Change Change Change yo mama yo gonna get your wish.
Meanwhile the Brits did their thing with the Africans 200-300 years ago and have been helping the Bush Admin for the past 8. Like axe L rod would put it, it would appear that Barack Hussein Obama is a shur ting.
I fear Isolationism more than anything else. But then, considering the team that is guiding him, He might turn out to be just a figurehead with the Behind the Throne crowd actually steering the way. Iffy.
On Nov 03 10:12 AM prairiedog555 wrote:
> Raise tax's during a recession/depression, erect trade barriers and
> allow millions of unskilled workers to burden welfare system. <br/>Ideology
> aside, how could anyone who studied great depression even consider
> a vote for Mr. Obama?
To be fair results would have been the same with McCain, as the US$ is toast.
If Obama screws up, another african american will not even be proposed for decade or two. He has just 2 years to prove himself. Most of that time will be spent trying to get the country out of the Recession. The GOP will be able to regain the Senate as a majority will be fighting for their seats. The dollar will be toast since it will be spend, spend, spend.
McCain would have similar issues. But if he screwed up, the Public would take it in stride because he is expected to blow it. The Dems would win outright control of the Senate and would be able to pass whatever they wanted because they would be able to override Vetoes.
Whoever gets in, gets just 2 years to get the job done. I don't envy either person.
On Nov 03 10:12 AM prairiedog555 wrote:
> Raise tax's during a recession/depression, erect trade barriers and
> allow millions of unskilled workers to burden welfare system. <br/>Ideology
> aside, how could anyone who studied great depression even consider
> a vote for Mr. Obama?
is sad to me how the low information voter is against the lower and middle class, who they are more than likely among, than the $2.4 billion per week that is being wasted in Iraq on a war that was lied in to, unless you look at what the war profiteers are making. At least the Republicans have caused so much damage to the country now that the majority have had it. Now Republicans want to reach across the isle only because they will need to. Zealots of any kind are dangerous.
.........................
Nice job of barfing up DNC talking points. Oh, which "isle" is that? The Isle of Mann?
Lies? So were Hillary and John Kerry and John Edwards and other demmies lying when they opined Iraq had WMD? How about the intelligence services of The UK, France, Russia, Germany and even Egypt and Jordan who had the same opinion? So much for that stupid accusation.
The US military estimates it has killed over 35,000 foreign terrorists in Iraq, islamic nutjobs who have come to Iraq from elsewhere to attack US troops. It's "loopy" to think New York or LA would have been a better battlefield. Or maybe "Loopy" thinks, make that feels, they all would be sitting around camel crap fires in the sfrican and arabian deserts singing "Kumbaya?"
Last, your democraps are costing us more than the entire Iraq war because they dragooned banks into abandoning lending standards so that their target groups could buy homes they couldn't afford. Of course, former Clinton cronies like Franklin Raines got rich cooking the books at Fannie while creating the housing/financial meltdown. That Barney Frank and Chris Dodd are allowed within the same zipcode as a lending institution is a travesty.
Watch how your liberty, personal choices, and constitutional rights are taken away by green activities. BO will not build Nuke reactors...he would have to take on the greenies... Watch how your personal overall financial well being is reduced by tax increases, fees, and indirect levies...his rhetoric is just that, we the people cannot believe anything he says. At least McCain is an ethical leader and has the history to prove it.
I am buying foreign oil (STO), consumer goods (PG,KMB), pharma/meds (JNJ,PFE), REIT (PCL), and Ford motor...Alan Mullally will be comparably or even outrageously successful within four years. Wish I had more cash so I could buy BNI.
It would make sense transfering all the wealth to the wealthy then handing the next president a bankrupt government.
On Nov 03 08:11 AM john s. gordon wrote:
> historical data show the economy always does better under a democrat
> administration. that's why so many corporate executives vote republican,
> they don't want the economy to do better (i.e., wage busting).
$9.50 Minium wage = big win for Union contracts tied to MW rate. Some get as much as 5 times that rate as thier income increase. What a bone to O's supporters. Sickening! I'm buying Uranium on every down turn as money becomes available.
Flash! There is NO alternative fuel sourse. Maybe the one Obama is gonna pull out his Arse.