Asset Class Performance during the Bush Years

Below we highlight the performance of the S&P 500 and its ten sectors from the time we knew Bush was going to be President in 2000 through yesterday's close.  We also break out the performance during Bush's second term, as well as the performance of oil, gold and the dollar. 

Up until late last year, it looked as if Bush was going to see gains in the stock market during his presidency.  The credit crisis, however, spoiled those plans, and the S&P 500 is now down 29.53% from 12/12/2000 (the day Florida was decided) through today.  Since election day 2004, the S&P 500 is down 14.53%.

On a sector basis, Technology is down the most since 12/12/2000 at -56.7%.  Tech is trailed by Telecom and Financials on the downside.  Only three sectors have seen gains during the Bush Presidency -- Consumer Staples, Materials, and Energy.  The Energy sector is up by far the most at 70.96%.  Oil is up 120% during the Bush years as well.  For opponents that claimed Bush was a hack for the oil industry from day one, these numbers provide significant ammo.

Regardless of why you think the market did what it did over the last 8 years and who was to blame, the numbers are what they are, and they don't look good for President Bush.

click to enlarge

Comments

[random guy:]

Why 12/12/2000?

2008 Nov 04 10:08 AM

[Michael Fit...:]

thanks for this article - i was planning on writing a similar article but i was going to wait until he was actually out of office and take exactly his entry/exit dates for my data. regardless, your article proves what i have been attemptint to explain to the ideological republicans for years: george bush is NOT a "conversvative republican" (he is a radical fascist), has NOT been good for american investors, and has been a complete economic disaster for the US. my only question going further is can the US recover from the economic, social, and political influence of the 8 years of bush, cheney, and their incompetent buddies? we're having to flood the world with US dollars now in an attempt to reflate, but if we don't get a handle on a real, long-term, strategic, comprehensive energy policy, we'll be hosed if and when the economy rebounds as the price of oil when it peaks next time will likely be double this year's high of $147/barrel.

thefitzman.blogspot.co...

signed: The "real conservative republican" Fitzman

2008 Nov 04 10:15 AM

[PokerDonkey:]

I realize that 12/12/2000 is the day Florida was decided, but there's no way Bush would have any impact for another month. Bush was widely expected as the next president before that date. Why not use the Election Day or his inauguration date? Do these numbers fit your perpective better? The Commodity Futures Modernization wasn't signed into law until 12/21/2000 by President Clinton. Your premise that past legislation has no effect and the President Elect's future policies and decisions are the major influence of the equity sectors is seriously flawed and damages any creditibly your "Investment Group" has.

2008 Nov 04 10:24 AM

[LeoTheDog:]

Wow, we elected an incurious oilman and the S&P drops 30%, with 7 of 10 S&P sectors go down for the next 8 years? Only the oil industry outpaces inflation during his term? Yeah, that's a real surprise. What a disgrace. Anyone having trouble figuring out who to vote for today?

2008 Nov 04 10:58 AM

[CrisisTheory:]

They speak to nothing less than a repudiation of neo-conservative ideology and worldview.

This is of course distinct from traditional, Ron Paul style conservatism.

2008 Nov 04 11:28 AM

[ts2:]

Vote today

A) Crazy old guy
B) Radical young guy

Whoever wins - the rest of us lose.

2008 Nov 04 12:14 PM

[GMiki1:]

And you didn't figure in inflation, which would show even greater losses. Today Bush has a 28 percent approval rating. Who are those people?

It's not a matter of unregulated markets, but lack of enforcement that allowed certain factions to pillage the system.

2008 Nov 04 07:49 PM