Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon? 77 comments
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We have all seen the headlines for the auto industry over the past few days, and they have not been good. Car sales are dismal. The message is plain and simple to see.
- The Worst Auto Sales In 25 Years
- GM Sales Down 45% - Ford (F) Down 30% - Toyota (TM) Down 25%
However, we here at Siriusbuzz, and our readers, demand information that goes a bit deeper. With that in mind, let's look back 25 years, the date by which current auto sales were compared. The year was 1983. February of 1983 was the bottom for auto sales. The industry was in a dire situation, and things were very bad. In early 1983, the discussion and headlines about car sales were all doom and gloom.
So how is there good news on the horizon? Well, fast forward to January 1984, and you will find an interesting New York Times headline that points to a banner year in the auto industry.
[click to enlarge]
What we may be seeing between now and December of this year is that the bottom in auto sales has been reached, and that when the auto sector turns around, it can do so in quick order. With gas prices coming down, the election behind us, credit beginning to flow, and stability in the banking system, the worst is perhaps behind us. I will project that auto sales will begin their rebound in December, and that by Presidents Day in 2009, the auto industry will be stabilized.
For satellite radio, the issue is getting through this slow period, and being in a position to grow and respond when auto sales increase. With many analysts projecting a weak auto market through 2009, it is little wonder that they have taken down their estimates. In my opinion, the auto industry will respond faster than many analysts think simply because of the nature of the business.
Cars depreciate with age. Holding onto a car longer means more repairs, and less value down the road. Consumers will begin to feel the pressure of the trade-in value of their car, good deals on new cars, and repair costs that could be mounting.
Slumped sales in the auto channel have been happening for a year now. Depressed sales have been happening for a few months. In my opinion, it is virtually impossible for downward year over year comparisons to continue through all of 2009. By example, Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen has 2008 projected sales at 13.8 million and 2009 sales at 12.4 million. This is calling for another year of slumping sales, something which I disagree with. If we look at sales since 2006, and projected sales, I feel we can see a flaw in the logic.
2006 sales - 16,504,400
2007 sales - 16,089,310
2008 sales - 13,802,438 (Merrill estimate)
2009 sales - 12,455,821 (Merrill estimate)
2010 sales - 14,946,985 (Merrill estimate)
The auto industry will respond by giving consumers a better value. The used car market will be a drier environment for low mileage used cars, making the new car market more attractive. The dynamics of car buying and selling simply does not lend itself to two plus years of downward sales. The gap that existed between 2007 and 2008 is abnormal, and that will by nature cause a similar reaction to the upside at some point. It is my opinion that these analysts are projecting too gradual a recovery.
For satellite radio, this could mean that a more favorable opinion of the sector will happen when the auto sales become better. Some analysts are projecting doom and gloom for all of 2009. If sales increase faster, satellite will benefit.
Position - Long SIRI, No position auto sector.
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This article has 77 comments:
Eventually, (probably soon) they will have to turn these vehicles by lowering the floor prices. Dealers will by when the price is right and there will be great deals for consumers on these vehicles.
Unfortunately for the manufacturers, this puts even more pressure on new vehicle sales. Most manufacturers are predicting 09 sales to be close to or slightly below 2008.
A quick turnaround would be nice but I don't see it. 83/84 was the end of a long drought in sales. We are just 6 months into it at this point.
To add to your last comment
If the stock went up there would be so many lawsuits their heads would spin.... LoL
How has that lawsuit that Hartleib started going..... ? You guys get your money back yet?
GL To you all... We fought the big one here... Let's see if it was worth the loss.......
But if we are to discuss what the headline says, your conclusion about the auto industry sounds like what a junkie always says about their current state. Just get them one more hit and everything will be OK. What happens next time oil goes to $150 a barrel? Does GM, Ford, or Chrysler have any real innovation that can stand up to Toyota or Honda then? If they think this 'economic storm' is temporary they are sadly mistaken. I understand the need for them to get some cash flow but if my tax dollars are going to a bailout, for which I am not opposed in principle, I want to know that my investment is sound.
For instance, what should and will happen to the Janesville, Wisconsin plant that has produced 1,000 Tahoes and Suburbans per day during cheap oil? GM should take the pain and say that they are keeping that factory open to produce the first high-volume alternative energy vehicle. A country that re-tooled 20% of its manufacturing capacity in 18 months during WWII can and must put tremendous energy into getting these plants re-tooled not in years, but in months. The point of singling out the Janesville factory is partly symbolic, and partly practical. There needs to be a consortium between university research, the Federal government, and auto makers to make these ideas happen in the present, not in 10 or 20 years.
Until then, any good news is an illusion.
I like your posts, but I don't understand what you are saying this time. Could you clarify, please?
AT&T has partnered up with RaySat to deliver 22 high quality video and 20 audio channels to the back seat of cars. They have launched a working preview of their services at SEMA 2008 with a consumer delivery promise set for sprint of 2009. Anticipated monthly services fees are $28.00.
This is not the holly grail of a connected car, but AT&T has done a lot of hard work here that no other company has released yet.
They have a relativity small Antenna
They have about a minute of data caching 'baked in' to allow for driving through parking garages short tunnels and other structures.
They have a commited shipping date
Some juicy content deals appear to be done:
“Disney Channel, Toon Disney, Discovery Kids, Animal Planet, Nickelodeon, Cartoon Network Mobile, USA, COMEDY CENTRAL, MSNBC, CNN Mobile Live and CNBC. Twenty satellite radio music channels will also be available at the launch.”
I was listening in my car (Ford Fusion with Sync and Sirius built in) on a business trip, and I began to listen to some of the commercials. I was mostly on sports and comedy channels and a little business channel in there on my 4 1/2 hour trip, but a LOT of the commercials on there sounded more like things I delete from my E-mail inbox or go directly to my spam filter! Anyone else with me here? I cannot think of one ad that was for some kind of a staple product (and by that I mean a Coca-Cola or Pepsi or McDonald's or some other hi-profile product). It was all about getting rich quick, debt elimination, 'size' enlargement, etc. Not even any political ads. /wince
Well my rant is over, does anyone else have an opinion on this, or maybe how the ad revenue stream is divided? Maybe for some of these channels they just sell the channel? I have not listened to regular radio in awhile, but I would think that for a pay-radio station they could get a better ad clientele. Or can it not be assumed that someone paying for radio has at least a bit more disposable income? Looking forward do hearing from you all!
Monaco Coach Gets $129.3M In New Debt Financing
MNCLast update: 11/5/2008 6:19:37 AM (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires (201-938-5400)November 05, 2008 06:19 ET (11:19 GMT)
This is an example of a distressed company that has been down 50% and struggling. Yet they have acquired a substantial amount of financing. I believe it may be time for me to get back in to sirius stock. I am going to hunt around an see what other distressed companies are acquiring substantial financing. Any thoughts or opinions?
On Nov 05 11:22 AM SiriuslyConsidering wrote:
> Just FYI all:
>
> AT&T has partnered up with RaySat to deliver 22 high quality
> video and 20 audio channels to the back seat of cars. They have launched
> a working preview of their services at SEMA 2008 with a consumer
> delivery promise set for sprint of 2009. Anticipated monthly services
> fees are $28.00.
>
>
> This is not the holly grail of a connected car, but AT&T has
> done a lot of hard work here that no other company has released yet.
>
>
>
> They have a relativity small Antenna
> They have about a minute of data caching 'baked in' to allow for
> driving through parking garages short tunnels and other structures.
>
> They have a commited shipping date
>
> Some juicy content deals appear to be done:
>
> “Disney Channel, Toon Disney, Discovery Kids, Animal Planet, Nickelodeon,
> Cartoon Network Mobile, USA, COMEDY CENTRAL, MSNBC, CNN Mobile Live
> and CNBC. Twenty satellite radio music channels will also be available
> at the launch.”
>
There was no intent to mislead you. The article is published on SiriusBuzz.com, and was about how the OEM channel (an important partner to satellite radio) could be seeing a turn around. Seekingalpa picked up the story and likely (because it mentions Ford, GM, etc.) it was under those tickers here as well.
Satellite radio aside, we are perhaps appraching the bottom in terms of sales of cars, and while the article is not specific to the auto channel, some of the numbers, data, etc. could be relevant.
The intent was not an article about the auto industry, but how it relates to satellite radio. I can see how someone not interested n satellite could be confused by the title, but please bear in mind that the original piece came from SiriusBuzz.com, which by nature of the name is a site about satellite radio.
On Nov 05 11:37 AM User 292014 wrote:
> A bit of positive information. It appears that lenders are beginning
> to flow money into corporations again. Check out Monaco Coach (MNC).
> Here's the news header:
>
> Monaco Coach Gets $129.3M In New Debt Financing
> MNCLast update: 11/5/2008 6:19:37 AM (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
> (201-938-5400)November 05, 2008 06:19 ET (11:19 GMT)
>
> This is an example of a distressed company that has been down 50%
> and struggling. Yet they have acquired a substantial amount of financing.
> I believe it may be time for me to get back in to sirius stock. I
> am going to hunt around an see what other distressed companies are
> acquiring substantial financing. Any thoughts or opinions?
There pulling a FED, printing their way out of debt. Why does this stock still have value to bondholders? They must know something I dont. Wish I knew what it was.....
The % Gain/Loss was calculated.
We still have a bumpy ride (slow growth) from 2008. But after a 27% drop, a gain is ALMOST inevitible.
year sales in thousands %G/L from prior year
1963 8,990 N/A
1964 9,494 5.61%
1965 10,885 14.65%
1966 10,664 -2.03%
1967 9,882 -7.33%
1968 11,487 16.24%
1969 11,552 0.57%
1970 10,211 -11.61%
1971 12,338 20.83%
1972 13,569 9.98%
1973 14,572 7.39%
1974 11,541 -20.80%
1975 11,103 -3.80%
1976 13,291 19.71%
1977 14,859 11.80%
1978 15,423 3.80%
1979 14,153 -8.23%
1980 11,444 -19.14%
1981 10,778 -5.82%
1982 10,538 -2.23%
1983 12,312 16.83%
1984 14,483 17.63%
1985 15,725 8.58%
1986 16,323 3.80%
1987 15,193 -6.92%
1988 15,792 3.94%
1989 14,845 -6.00%
1990 14,149 -4.69%
1991 12,550 -11.30%
1992 13,117 4.52%
1993 14,199 8.25%
1994 15,411 8.54%
1995 15,116 -1.91%
1996 15,456 2.25%
1997 15,498 0.27%
1998 15,967 3.03%
1999 17,415 9.07%
2000 17,812 2.28%
2001 17,472 -1.91%
2002 17,139 -1.91%
2003 16,967 -1.00%
2004 17,299 1.96%
2005 17,444 0.84%
2006 17,049 -2.26%
2007 16,460 -3.45%
and my projection for 2008
2008 12,000 -27.10%
I really appreciate all the information that I get off these blogs, please continue to discuss this stock! I was just wondering if anyone knew the exact date for Q3 results, and whether it will be good news or bad news?
I've been able to average down from almost $3 to around $0.75 now... any educated guesses as to when I'll be able to break even again?
Monaco Coach Corporation Announces $129.3 Million in New Debt Financing
6:01a ET November 5, 2008 (Market Wire)
Monaco Coach Corporation (NYSE: MNC), one of the nation's leading manufacturers of recreational vehicles, today announced that it has entered into two new definitive financing arrangements, the first of which is a three-year $90 million revolving working capital loan and security agreement with several financial institutions and Bank of America, N.A., as agent for the lenders. The Company also executed a secured financing agreement with Ableco Finance, LLC for a $39.3 million 3.5-year secured term loan. The funding of these loan facilities is scheduled to occur today and will pay off and retire our existing credit agreement.
Looks like Banks are loaning money to distressed corporations again. Monaco Coach has been down 50% with no relief in sight for the near future. Yet they acquire substantial refinancing. Perhaps this signals the start of loosening up on corporate lending. Time to buy back into Sirius? Any thoughts?
I have to comment directly to you and say that this era and beyond will be nothing like any other in history where autos are concerned. So I don't think using stats from the 70's or 80's is reliable. We are in the early stages of an entire paradigm shift so trying to predict where things will go from here is a little like trying to predict the weather IMO. If car-makers in this country are smart they will not relax because oil is back down and therefore keep producing guzzling SUV's and trucks at break-neck paces. The speculators in that space will be back and next time they will drive the price to $200. We need to keep pushing towards next gen cars that don't need as much oil. That seems to benefit SIRI but it could be a slow transition for the next few years because the auto industry as a whole currently has their pants down around their ankles. Not a happy picture.
SIRI has never made a profit.
MNC had $45mil in longterm liabilities before this $139mil loan.
SIRI has $3.5bil in longterm liabilities.
MNC has $160mil in retained earnings on a $442mil balance sheet.
SIRI has -$4.6bil in retained earnings on a $10.6bil balance sheet.
On Nov 05 11:37 AM User 292014 wrote:
> A bit of positive information. It appears that lenders are beginning
> to flow money into corporations again. Check out Monaco Coach (MNC).
> Here's the news header:
>
> Monaco Coach Gets $129.3M In New Debt Financing
> MNCLast update: 11/5/2008 6:19:37 AM (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
> (201-938-5400)November 05, 2008 06:19 ET (11:19 GMT)
>
> This is an example of a distressed company that has been down 50%
> and struggling. Yet they have acquired a substantial amount of financing.
> I believe it may be time for me to get back in to sirius stock. I
> am going to hunt around an see what other distressed companies are
> acquiring substantial financing. Any thoughts or opinions?
I still think we haven't seen the bottom and that the American car companies behave like crack addicts. They should welcome CAFE gas mileage increases for instance because it will force them to innovate.
On Nov 05 11:46 AM Tyler Savery wrote:
> TomboM....
>
> There was no intent to mislead you. The article is published on
> SiriusBuzz.com, and was about how the OEM channel (an important partner
> to satellite radio) could be seeing a turn around. Seekingalpa picked
> up the story and likely (because it mentions Ford, GM, etc.) it was
> under those tickers here as well.
>
> Satellite radio aside, we are perhaps appraching the bottom in terms
> of sales of cars, and while the article is not specific to the auto
> channel, some of the numbers, data, etc. could be relevant.
>
> The intent was not an article about the auto industry, but how it
> relates to satellite radio. I can see how someone not interested
> n satellite could be confused by the title, but please bear in mind
> that the original piece came from SiriusBuzz.com, which by nature
> of the name is a site about satellite radio.
I agree and just posted this on Tyler's last article while having a conversation about share dilution and whether or not its already factored in.
----As I said yesterday, in conversation with s162, they are systematically taking this stock down in .03 cent or around 8-10% increments.
By the way, to support my theory on the SP step down process, we are down 3.5 cents today. There is two huge blocks of probably all or nothing lots parked at .27 (680K shares) and a smaller block parked at .28. Probably not much more action today down and might finish at .285... we shall see.
As Cos1000 says, the dirft is back on--looking at a 2MO chart also confirms the timing of this move lower. There are a few other things in thh mix IMO, which the first is we will have to see how the stock reacts in the .20's this time. The only other time below .30 (just recently), it closed only twice in the .20's then bounced off it's now low of .215 (though it unofficially went slightly lower than that the morning it bounced in limit down conditions). So now here we are again, so we shall see the new behavior. My take is if it spends an extended time in .20's, it might eventually only pop just a little into the lower .30's then head lower into the teens, mid-teens before popping back to .40's. This would be consistent with the LT trend. The wild card now either way is very imminent earnings of course. So, we will have to see . Otherwise, IMO, trend-wise we are in slightly uncharted territory from one perspective. Somewhere about .20 or high teens feels like the next squeeze trigger. Hard to say when it will get there. I think you just have to keep a sharp eye. As Cos1000 does periodically, it can't hurt to put in a bid around .21 or .18 just to be covered in case. Unless earnings are that good to cause such a thing, it won't pop @ .24-.26.
Btw... to make things more confusing, I just saw a possible 11/10 earnings date today. Can't confirm it, just saw it as reported on one portal I use. So we've either got tomorrow or Monday. I'm guessing BMO on either.
Anyone get the proxy? Was it sent out yet?
Vote No Rev Split
Is Mel a crook?
Not if you’re a day Trader! Day Traders love Mel.
Is Sirius corrupt?
Not if you’re a Day Trader! Day Traders love volatile stocks.
Who would defend Mel now?
Only a Day Trader who has no long term investment!
Should you vote against the Rev Spilt?
Not if you’re a Day Trader! Day traders don’t care about the Investment of others! Day traders are greedy and corrupt!
Vote No Rev Split
Vote No More Shares
CALL SIRIUS AND GET YOU PROXY. MAKE THEM MAIL THEM PROPERLY
I origionally bought in at 2.30....
And have averaged down to .65 now!!!!
If SIRI issues shares and pays off the debt...
Positive cash flow and growing subscriber rates....
(And the fact that they paid off the debt by using shareholders.... which is why a company goes private, to raise money.... and SIRI didn't go to a lender and get itself into "better debt" as i like the call it)
So now SIRI has....
No Debt
Positive Cash Flow
Growing Subs
New Radios (BoB etc.)
I don't see the problem with a reverse split..... Maybe if you guys took the money you are spending on the lawsuit and averaged down....... you would think the same way...... but we will see where your lawsuit takes you..... GL
AAPL has 888 million shares outstanding
SIRI has 3.8 Billion.....
another reason to RS even if it doesn't issue more shares.....??
Here is my take for any of those shareholders who are looking for a Silver, very thin, lining at this time. Authorizing the additional 3.5 B shares to 8 Billion, does not mean that they will be issued. This is a Huge Trust issue which I cannot see retail investors being comfortable with, but is probably necessary at this point. Even at .25 / share, the remaining debt could be taken out for 2009. That is an additional 700 Mil in debt, May and Dec 2009 needing 2.8 Bil shares to accomplish this dilution. If the dilution is already priced in, and without any debt for 2009 left to worry about, it could be.... and I stress could be.
This action then combined with a RS of even 1 for 20 sometime before Dec 31, 2009, would put the company and, in my opinion, shareholders in a more certain future with only 400 M shares outstanding, after the 1 for 20 RS.
If dilution and debt weren't the issue we would probably be trading at a stock price of 5.5 to 6.0 per share. We have already paid for the RS by holding on to our shares. $6 diluted by 20 times is .30 /sh and $5.50 diluted by 20 times is .28. Do you see how we might already have paid for the RS and share dilution. I am not saying that I think this is correct for management to do. I am saying that it is what the company has done. The question I have is This The Plan???
Yes, we have all heard the propiganda Mel has had his goons spewing.
The great Avg Down method. Most real people have tried to do this and continue to lose more with each 10% Mel takes off the SP.
But truly I am glad some still have money to lose. The very great advice is always up on Sirius.
The lawsuit will get things done even if most never hear or belive the extra motivation the suit provides for Sirius to get the act together.
Vote No Rev Split
Vote No More Shares
CALL SIRIUS AND GET YOU PROXY. MAKE THEM MAIL THEM PROPERLY
They will meet their Feb. obligation and we will go from there.
But if you have a better way of coming up with the debt money why not explain it to everybody here?
CALL SIRIUS AND GET YOU PROXY. MAKE THEM MAIL THEM PROPERLY ?
Thanks
It takes 100 million words and 10 posts to cover up the bad speak about Sirius....
LOL
Vote No Rev Split
Vote No More Shares
CALL SIRIUS AND GET YOU PROXY. MAKE THEM MAIL THEM PROPERLY <<< --- Mailed Nov 4. make sure you get yours in the mail!
Vote yes to reverse split!
I agree. "Autos" I believe is about to go into a prolonged period of stagnation. I hate to say that but just look at what the industry faces. Not only an immediate need to reinvent their inherent business model on a dime, but also attempt to facilitate the paradigm shift (while not simultaneously cutting their own throats by abandoning legacy too soon--and this isn't exactly Beta v. VHS kind of simple). Then there is how long exactly will it take to hit critical mass in that sea change because the new standards haven't even been agreed upon yet. We're not completely nascent at this point but IMO only in stage 1.5 of a 5 stage process. It won't be until we get to about stage 3.5 that the newly emerged, leaner, newly directed industry will be firing with some conviction again. Should be at least a few years before we get to that 3.5. How the new sales numbers will accompany all this is a guess. But it would seem most likely flat to down.
All in all..it was a heck of a time for SIRI to do this leveraged buyout wasn't it??
Do you even know the hard evidence that Hartleib is going to use in his case???
And before you answer (If yo do)
a. Don't answer with another question or by trying to bash me....
b. Make sure your answer can be found in HARD EVIDENCE, Not an "Emotion" or "Somthing Mel SAID".....
P.S.-------- > I'm not trying to bash you Mark...... don't take it that way.
WE HAVE SUPPORTED MEL !!!!! for frickin' years
Time for him to support us .........we aren't seein' it ....ok ????
look at the 5 year chart dude .......and tell me when Mel is going to work his magic ........I am siriusly waiting ......and we have ALL been waiting for a long long time ...........but the chart sinks day by day and week by week and month by month and year by year
I had your optimism a year ago .........I am plum out now
Dear Mel and Company
When ever you make your 3rd Q report please remember the only thing stock holders want to hear is the following:
“Dear Stock Holder, We wish to express our apology for the recent silence. However, we felt the ugent need for good news would be best served with only good news. Today, I am both please and relived to announce the February Debt has been fully financed and we have secured additional financing for the rest of the 2009 year. We offer apogee for the request for a Rev Split and guarantee that no such split will be performed unless it is to remain listed on the NASDQ. We also have do not plan to continue dilution to offset debt unless all others options are fully existed.”
This is all we want to hear. Say anything less and your toast….
Hay, every man can dream. But wake up to news like this next week and we could all be rich by December.
Vote No Rev Split
I appreciate your simple analysis with which I agree. It is going to get better in time. Those who have time are going to be OK. Those that do not will get out at a loss. There will be no bankruptcy and I also feel Mel is working to make this a success. Rome was not built in a day and neither will building Sirius into the monopoly it has the potential to be. Nevetheless it will get done.
Long Sirius
selectsatelliteradio.c...
Relmor , can u decode the message?
Thanks for the detailed post. good thought...
and yeah...learntt,
Where has Mr. Brandon gone?
***********
Directed Electronics to Exit Satellite Radio Business
PR Newswire
Posted: 2008-11-05 16:15:00
VISTA, Calif., Nov. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Directed Electronics, an operating unit of DEI Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: DEIX), today announced that it has entered into an agreement with SIRIUS XM Radio outlining key terms for winding down their business together by January 31, 2009, the expiration date of the current distribution agreement.
(Logo: www.newscom.com/cgi-bi...)
Jim Minarik, DEI Holdings' President and CEO stated, "We became the primary retail distribution partner for what was then SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO in 2004, and are proud of the results we have achieved by growing SIRIUS' satellite radio retail share from approximately 20% to over 60% during the past four years. However, based on the large working capital commitment required for this business, as well as a strategic decision on our part to focus on our core security and entertainment businesses, we will not be extending our current agreement with SIRIUS XM when it expires on January 31, 2009. We have enjoyed an excellent partnership with SIRIUS over the past four years and expect to continue working closely with them to ensure the smoothest possible transition to their new distribution partner between now and early 2009."
The agreement specifies that SIRIUS or its new distribution partner will purchase substantially all remaining satellite radio receiver inventory from Directed in the first quarter of 2009 and assume full responsibility for all product returns and warranty costs after January 31, 2009, regardless of when the product was sold.
"While it is never an easy decision to exit any market, there are a number of factors that made exiting the satellite radio business the only logical choice for us. These factors include a dramatic drop in demand for aftermarket satellite radio, increasing warranty returns and decreasing margins that we and our customers have experienced throughout 2007 and 2008 on satellite radio products, and the large working capital commitment required for this relatively low margin business. Exiting this business will allow us to return 100% of our focus in 2009 to improving the experience we deliver to our customers and growing our highly profitable security and entertainment businesses."
If people think BK or chapter 11 is a possibility, or going private !!!
Who and why those investors took $ 160 millions in common shares to refinance the Feb 09 converts??? at 0.37 pps
Why would they waste their millions in the stock if it has gone?
Could you explain this to me please
Many thanks
How come Hartlieb doesn't take all this brainpower and money that he is wasting on fighting Mel and Co. ...... And open up lawsuit to PROVE THAT THERE IS ILLEGAL MANIPULATION BEING PERFORMED ON THIS STOCK......
That topic Hartlieb can win in a heartbeat...... This lawsuit I believe he is wasting his and your time and money.....
Not Mel
While I agree with the Common Sense of your comments on SP manipulation and that I and others can watch it on a daily basis, I am not sure its illegal at these prices. If you were a money manager with 2 - 5 Million shares, you would be able to have a field day with just about any, penny stock out their. Part of the problem in my opinion is the amount of shares available to exchange on a daily basis. Several simple tactics are used to inflate the price and to block the price from moving in either direction. Large blocks of share bids and asks are placed at every whole penny with odd numbers say 248,262 shares, all or nothing at .27 along with a 120,000 share at .28 that you really want to sell. Generally the price will not go to .27 and the 120 K at .28 will sell off. This can be done at any whole number. While it sits in this 1 cent range theycan also fractionally buy and sell smaller lots. Not all retail investors can even see the fractional sales in real time unless they have level ll or put a market order in, not recommended, and find that their online broker got them a fractionally better price. My Etrade retirement account does not allow me to put in fractional prices such as .2755, but my TD Ameritrade cash account does. Another tactic will flood the range with multiple 100 and 200 share orders at fractional prices withing the range. This doesn't necessarily stop the price from moving up or down, but I have seen it take the momentum up out of the stock. With what most of us pay for commissions, we would not even consider buying such small lots at .25 cents.
IMO I don't think that for high volume money managers, trading on multiple platforms, that this practice is illegal as long as company's management is not involved, or the practice is being done absent of any insider information.
These tactics can be used by company's who legally possess shares for shorting the stock. Moving large volumes of stock up and down 8-10% every day is quite lucrative for them, and we are at their mercy. What I am doing and others is trying to move with them not against them to take advantage of their strategy and accumulate shares without putting up additional capital.
November 5, 2008 (10:04 pm) Tyler Savery
It was announced today that Directed Electronic and Sirius XM Radio are parting ways. Directed Electronics has been the main distribution arm for Sirius Satellite Radio for a few years, and enjoyed the retail boom with Howard Stern’s arrival to Sirius, as well as the retail slumps of the past year and a half. The new distribution partner will be New Age. While official confirmation of New Age has not yet been released, we have reason to believe that the company is New Age Electronics, a company that specializes in retail and distribution.
siriusbuzz.com/new-age...
But I do not understand the part where you say "It's not illegal AT THESE PRICES" ....
When does it become illegal?
And, in that case... If GS is manipulating the price to keep them at these levels, in order to get a better convert.... That would be illegal, right?
We have posted several things related to Mike H finding companies that have been Shorting Sirius. He and the group even found one that got a SEC waivor to do masive shorts. I posted part of the letter from the company that made the request.
So, you keep pounding on Mike H. so I can keep putting out the good news.
--------------
FROM MIKE H.
"These are the people responsible for facilitating most all the Naked shorts on Sirius. Read the attachment and start making calls. Let them know that there is an on going investigation,also we must send many letters to OES, ISEROUTE and the regulators, SEC and NASD maybe in this enviroment we can get them to take action! We can demand the NASD audit their trades. Ther argument is that the person or Broker is the on that has to comply with REG SHO not them. Wrong without their routing these illegal trades they would not take place."
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OES GROUP, Order Execution Services Holdings, Inc
Look them up because the do massive Sirius Shorts.
Vote No Rev Split
I like things that are quick and to the point
The reason the manipulation is not illegal is because it's not...sadly. That might sound simple but very true. In this type of financing, those given the shares to short, may do so at their discretion, anytime. And...all the prospecti SIRI has released has mentioned it, though some in less detail than others. They would have to outlaw the style of financing altogether to make manipulating the stock illegal. In this process with SIRI, I've learned much more than I ever cared about prior, when it comes to convertible financing and its deliterious components. So when it comes to shorting stocks, not only do people have to understand normal shorting and hedging by big money players, but also the same as it may relate to the type of financing the company in which you have invested, has entered into. SIRI made this one very hard on investors because of not only the mountain of paperwork there was to go through post buyout, but also how their financing would or could hurt us/them, and then incurring such a mountain of debt...all an investor nightmare.
One can say live and learn (which is very important too), but I also think every situation with the same financing is going to be slightly different. I have been in another stock for a while that also uses convertible financing and has the same type of short on. They are not now nor should they ever get as low as SIRI has gone. As said before, I think the main reason SIRI has dropped so low is because of their mountain of debt--which has made this descent very easy for those creating it. Further, another thing that strikes me is looking back at the "Mel Years" stock chart decline. Mel has been in bed with GS and MS for years prior to coming to SIRI. I'd have to check again exactly when Mel may have done his first convertible deal with GS (for SIRI), but I want to recall it was somewhere in 2004--when he first joined the company. If that is the case or anywhere in that vicinity, it would be then easier to explain the stock decline we have seen since Mel came to SIRI--and less of the Mel malfeasance angle. It's just something not many paid much attention to. In this case, he still would be responsible in a way for the decline because he agreed to that style of financing but not quite in the premeditated way previously posited by me and others here. That's the bad news. Overall, Convertible financing is a highly volitile form of funding a company, which enriches the bondholders (IB's), gets the company what they want, but can seriously kick shareholders arses. Maybe the best example of legalized stealing in all of the investment world, yet still all very legal according to rules extant...which also makes the day to day manipulation also very legal.
You are correct in pointing out ... these prices.... . It is legal at any price and what I meant is at ... these prices.... it is much easier to accomplish because of both the number of shares outstanding and available, and the price per share. Sorry for the confusion.
There is some subscriber updated news on the wire this morning. Sirius has adjusted their End of Year number to 19.1M.
I have NEVER , EVER , seen anyone checking out the satrads at the retail display .................siriu... ........not once ..........and I remember a couple of times when I was checking it out , nothing even worked !!!!!!! Christmas is coming , and the retail displays had better work properly , and be user friendly ..................
Who's gonna buy a radio / subscription , if the damn display is not working ????? They're gonna think , " Hmmmm , this company can't even get the damn demo to work "
So maybe Siri has found a better company for retail / distribution / demo purposes ..........Hope so because I think this is a critical issue with the company
Who needs to advertise on TV , when all you have to do is catch those people already there with a smokin' retail demo / display Siri stand
You could have a demo video right there in the store , for millions of people to see , and not pay a dime for outrageous TV spots ..........10 million bucks for 30 seconds ???? screw that
MEL !!!!! GET THOSE RETAIL DISPLAYS IN ORDER NOW !!!!!!!
I'm sorry but this statement sounds ridiculous.
Holding car longer means saving more money!
It was estimated if you drive your car up to 200,000 miles you save average $20,000 over the years you keep it.
I drive 1999 Camry that has 195,000 miles, and I spend money mostly on maintenance, not fix. I estimate I spend no more than $80 per month on maintenance. If I buy a new Camry I'll pay at least $250-300 per month fro 3-6 until I pay it off, not to mention I'll have to put some 5-7K as down payment.
Not to mention the car's value falls some 5% just after you drove out of dealership.
But even if you are new cars freak, you must have pretty good credit history now to get auto loan.
Did the author hear about credit crunch and that banks are not willing to give money to anybody who can move?
"I will project that auto sales will begin their rebound in December, and that by Presidents Day in 2009, the auto industry will be stabilized."
This prediction is also ridiculous and sounds like "predictions" of notorius National Association of Realtors :)
Why will happen in December or by President Day 2009? People will start getting higher salaries? Banks will start reckless lending again?
And why by President Day? Why not by New Year or Easter or Valentine Day? I personally prefer the latter! :)
markbmark 2008
I was in phone contact with Sirius, Patrick Reilly Today; November 6, 2008 who retuned my call for inquiry as to his claim the Michael Hartleib Derivative Case was dismissed. Reilly informed me the case had been dismissed. However, I had to push him hard before he admitted the case was given leave to re-file and that action is pending. Reilly was very misleading in his press release and his response to me. Clearly, Sirius first response has been to cover up the deception with more deception.
After speaking with Reilly, my opinion is the plan for Sirius is to dilute, Rev-Split, and then short their own stock and use the stolen money to buy the company on the cheap and go private or sell. I have spoken to a lot of crooks and wheeler-dealers and Reilly is a spin mastering crook. Sirius is up to no good!
I also called Michael Hartleib today for the first time. After weeks of email I was pleased to finally talk to the "Crazy Uncle" as some have nick named him. After 20 min phone conversation I was spinning in a world full of deception previously unknown to me. People, this guy , Michael Hartleib could put Mel and Company in jail for a very long time.
If Michael Hartleib can get this case into a court and perform just a little discovery, truly life will change for Mel. Michael Hartleib has outstanding hard and factual evidence to show:
1. FCC collusion to dominate SAT bandwidth,
2. Hard facts never released about the Merger that show Mel knew XM would have filed chapter 7 within a few months and the FCC License requirement would have given XM to Sirius at a substantial discount.
3. Hard facts about the $600 million last min financing is the point that the deal should have been stopped to prevent stock holder and company loses. On this issue alone, Michael has a money trail of profiteering and RICO that will put Mel in Jail for years.
4. Hard and court proven evidence that Sirius attempted to evade liability for all of the above by bringing in a professional plaintiff and law firm to bring a class action lawsuit against Sirius (Sued themselves) and agree in an iron clad protection settlement that prevented additional stockholders from suing.
In Mike's spare time, he has traced two trading companies that have been used for massive Naked Short Trading Sirius via offshore and some US holding companies. The investigation continues to point back to Sirius and collusion with GS in a washed money trail. A little discover from a court suit will be interesting indeed.
The true Consumer and Stock Holder Advocate in Sirius is (in my opinion) Mike Hartleib. I owned a large east coast Internet service and was involved and prevailed in a TELCO suit that did not have half the smoke in the gun used by Sirius. Look out Mel, because Mike Hartleib is the mad dog that has a big bite and he will never let go…
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
Contact:
Michael Hartleib
(949) 795-0580
savesirius@gmail.com
Mel and others at Sirius have fully and totally refused to investigate!
MarKbMarK
You see it happening! Have you traced the source? Because you can trace each trade with L2-L1 information and contacting the Exchange. Then. what ever response you get POST IT AND POST THE COMPLAINT LINK FOR THE SEC. File a complaint and post it with a request for everyone to make a SEC complaint.
Who is responsible to police this manipulation? The stock holders and the company are the first stop in policing the system. If we don’t call the police when the house gets robbed no-one else will call for us.
WHY DOES SIRIUS REFUSE TO INVESTIGATE AND DEFEND IT’s STOCK?
Mike H. personally wrote a letter to Mel back in May 07, Mike asked Sirius to investigate.
Letter to Mel, Sirius, May 07 Mike said,
“ I have obtained information through the Freedom of Information Act issued by the S.E.C. and other sources, that strongly suggests manipulation in Sirius shares and violations of Federal Securities Law. In speaking with Investor Relations, I have been told it is not the Company’s responsibility to monitor the trading of the Company shares but instead, is the responsibility of the regulators. I disagree and believe the Company has a fiduciary responsibility to protect the interest of its shareholders. I cite the pending Overstock.com, Inc. et al v Morgan Stanley & Co, Incorporated et al litigation filed on behalf of Overstock and its shareholders (Superior Court of the State of California – Case #CGC-07-460147). I believe this case sets a precedent for companies such as Overstock to protect their shareholders and preserve the integrity of their shares. Overstock and its shareholders have seen nearly a forty percent increase in share price since the Complaint was filed. “
Any question?
Mel and others at Sirius have fully and totally refused to defend the Stock Holder and the Stock Price by investigating the obvious SP manipulation of Sirius. Mel has continuously refused to request a SEC investigation.
All more reason to believe Mel is in the dirty work and Sirius is up to no good.
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
Contact:
Michael Hartleib
(949) 795-0580
savesirius@gmail.com