What a BlackBerry Storm Delay Might Mean for Research In Motion

While the signs are pointing to strong demand for Research In Motion Ltd.’s (RIMM) pending touchscreen BlackBerry Storm, the smartphone appears to still be undergoing the network qualification process at Verizon (VZ), which could push its launch into late November or even later, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky.

Black Friday, which falls on the Friday after Thanksgiving, is considered the beginning of the traditional Christmas shopping season. This year it falls on November 28. The Vodafone U.K. Storm launch is expected on November 11, while the BlackBerry Bold is set for November 4 with AT&T (T).

RBC’s checks with carriers in the U.S. and abroad show BlackBerry momentum in September and October slowing ahead of new product launches. Meanwhile, initial sales checks for the flip Kickstart at T-Mobile are improving but still moderate.

These factors suggest third quarter subscriber numbers for RIM will be at the low end or below guidance of 2.9 million, Mr. Abramsky told clients. He noted that the quarter is heavily back-ended as the company must gain an estimated 40% of subscribers in November to meet its forecasts.

At the same time, Storm and Bold sales could help RIM beat its quarterly revenue and earnings per share guidance of $2.95-billion to $3.1-billion and $0.89 to $0.97, respectively.

While RIM shares have already corrected to 13 times forward 12-month earnings, Mr. Abramsky said these developments will likely contribute to more volatility in the near term. He continues to rate the stock at “sector perform” with a $90 price target.

Comments

[morgangroup:]

Cramer said buy RIMM at $119 so I bought at $120 as close as I could when he said it. At the same time he said sell at the launch of the Blackberry Bold in Mid-September at up to $160 or even $190. All I have seen is RIMM fall to The $40 per share and it has just devastated me.

2008 Nov 10 08:48 PM

[iJah420:]

The Storm will come on Go it wont even hit a category 3.

This wannabe too device will go by the way of the Zune!...

The what?

The Zune!...

Whats a Zune!

OH forget it..... get an iPhone its cheaper...... DOH!!!

ijah420 says RIM is so very YESTERDAY!!!

2008 Nov 11 10:48 AM