What Will Sirius' Q3 Look Like? 37 comments
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While Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) has not yet made an announcement about when they will have their Q3 2008 conference call, we can tell from SEC regulations that we will see the information by Monday, November 10, 2008. It is for this reason that I believe that we will see an 8:00 AM conference call on Monday.
The big question in everyone’s mind is what this quarter will look like. Will synergies be noticeable at this point? Will there be a lot of One Time charges? Will guidance be given?
What the street is expecting is a loss of 9 cents on revenue of $587 million.
One thing is certain. There will be a lot of information to digest. How are various metrics going to be tallied? What impact will the merger related expenses have? What types of synergies are we beginning to see?
Often when a quarterly report is issued, there is a swift reaction in the equity. This is one case where a bit of patience may be prudent. When the report is issued, investors should consider the information very carefully. They should make an effort to understand the expenses, and whether they are operational or one time events. They should look at how various metrics are counted, and get a full understanding of where the company is heading.
In my opinion, a PR about the Q3 call will be issued on 11-6 or 11-7.
Position - Long SIRI
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All I can say is that I am holding off until I see the block of shares pulled away that is supporting the current price. Right now there is around 300K shares supporting .29 and 350K supporting .30 . As long is this is present the stock price is artificial IMHO. If they want to hold any one price they are throwing large all or nothing trades at it to support their agenda. They are whoever is holding all these shares to short the stock and manipulate the price. I am still looking for low .20's to high teens.
That sucks. So many variables. I heard about those couple of Props in CA that were rejected.
Btw..I won't post here, as many have probably seen already but Reuters and TheStreet.com have reported this morning about SIRI saying auto sales have hurt them this Q and will next. So there are some bad numbers in essence dripping out. I will say this about SIRI. They are no dummies when it comes to spin or releasing info.
Also with LIBOR now down significantly...if what Mel said is still true about LIBOR + 6 or 7...traditional financing would be about 8%. High, but way better than the 10-12 they were looking at last mo. Also, all should keep in mind that they are not obligated to do anything on that issue until Feb. That's still 4 long months away and knowing what they face currently, logic says they will use all of their clock. IMO esp since they no longer have to even worry about starting a delisting clock until mid Jan. It's entirely possible your scenario about approving the extra shares & reverse but not implementing right away will play out. Then in early Feb, they will decide which trigger to pull.
In 87 the market bounced up and down like a basketball for several months after the big drop. I am not worried about the eventual recovery. It will happen or else money won't matter. (Put it all into canned goods and shotgun shells while you can) There will come a day between now and the end of Feb where it will be correct to buy. (I have no doubts at all they have a handle on Feb debt)(but then there is still May and Dec)
In support of what I said above, as the stock just hit .29 another 400K shares were thrown at .29 to maintain the level then pulled and 300K was set at .28. This is an orderly take down of this stock.
I just posted on SiriusBuzz.com that I wouldn't be surprised to see a negative Net Adds to subscriber growth... which is why the revision to 19.1M subs by end of the year.... We all new the 18.5 was wrong at time of merger with where they were already and knowing historically how the 4Q sub growth has been. Sirius alone has gotten 1M subs in the 4Q. I am not surprised that penetration rates are not going to be able to offset the auto industry melt down anymore....
From Monday till March(pull back in late dec to mid jan) will be a wonderful run up in energy stocks, commodity prices, and gold stocks. Good luck. If you dont believe me, Ill check on you again in mid december.
Main market is going to enter a major bear rally. One more huge sell off possible, but after Monday, if it dont happen, its not going too.
Sirius may do well in this time frame. It may not. Dont know. Dont care anymore.
However , we do notice he is yakking a little about trying to get bank financing ........the operative word being "trying" .......duh
So in my opinion it is much ado about nothing ........but this new distribution company MIGHT be a good thing ........The last one sucked
Now it is possible that the previous dist. company leaving is bad news ( if they're thinking Siri sucks ) .....but MAYBE , they were fired by Siri , because THEY sucked ( That would be a good thing , as retail display has been less than stellar )
All Insider Trades
11 Feb 2009 FREAR DAVID J Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Gift 1,500,000 $0.00
22 Jan 2009 MEYER JAMES E President Gift 707,000 $0.00
22 Jan 2009 GREENSTEIN SCOTT ANDREW President Gift 607,000 $0.00
22 Jan 2009 FREAR DAVID J Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Gift 483,000 $0.00
22 Jan 2009 CALDERONE ADRIENNE E Senior Vice President & Controller Gift 156,000 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 MCGUINESS MICHAEL J Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 LIEBERFARB WARREN N Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 MOONEY JAMES F Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 GILBERTI LAWRENCE F Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 HOLDEN JAMES P Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 BLACK LEON D Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 AMBLE JOAN LORDI Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 AMBLE JOAN LORDI Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 ZIENTS JEFFREY D Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 ZIENTS JEFFREY D Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 HARTENSTEIN EDDY W Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 HARTENSTEIN EDDY W Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 HARTENSTEIN EDDY W Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 1,840,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 690,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 1,230,822 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 1,230,500 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 149,500 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 1,150,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 3,450,000 $0.00
All Insider Trades
www.reuters.com/financ...=
All Insider Trades
Take a look at what the executives have been giving themselves while we've been taking it in the shorts.
www.reuters.com/financ...=
I've seen you mention many times the manipulation that is happening to bring the stock down. From what I understand, people are controlling the price by using large blocks of shares listed at various prices. My question is, how does a stock overcome this? Are we pretty much hooped as regular shareholders?
Hooped is a good word for it..... My opinion is that they are manipulating the stock in both directions. Right now, my opinion is they are slowly taking the stock down to the low .20, high teens after the conference call, over a period of time and assisted by Monday's 3Q report. They will then take the stock back up, eventually. It is hard to say when because the news in general on Monday will not be horrible, but will not provide momentum to go up until some news or these manipulators want it too.
I follow the stocks price daily and make my judgments based on what the momentum is on level ll trading. The best I can do is make a strategy of buying and selling shares based on where I think they are taking the stock price. None of my accounts let me trade in and out on a daily basis because my account is set up for retail trading with 3 day confirmations on funds transferred without penalties. The professional money managers and registered day traders do not have this restriction. Given their amount of shares available for trading and their unrestricted ability to trade, its not hard to see how they can control the price. IMHO
MarKbMarK November 2008
I was in phone contact with Sirius, Patrick Reilly Today, November 6, 2008 who retuned my call for inquiery as to his claim the Mick Hartlib Derivatives Case was dismissed. Reilly informed me the case had been dismissed. However, I had to push him hard before he admitted the case was given leave to re-file and that action is not pending. Reilly was very misleading in his press release and his response to me. Clearly, Sirius first response has been to cover up the deception with more deception.
After speaking with Reilly, my opinion is the plan for Sirius is to dilute, Rev-Split, and then short their own stock and use the stolen money to buy the company on the cheap and go private or sell. I have spoken to a lot of crooks and wheeler-dealers and Reilly is a spin mastering crook. Sirius is up to no good!
I also called Mike Hartleib today for the first time. After weeks of email I was please to finally talk to the “Crazy Uncle” as some have nick named him. After 20 min phone conversation I was spinning in a world full of deception previously unknown to me. People, this guy Mike H. could put Mel and Company in jail for a very long time.
If Mike H can get this case into a court and perform just a little discovery, truly life will change for Mel. Mike has outstanding hard and factual evidence to show:
1. FCC collusion to dominate SAT bandwidth,
2. Hard facts never release about the Merger that show Mel knew XM would have filed chapter 7 within a few months and the FCC License requirement would have given XM to Sirius at a substantial discount.
3. Hard facts about the $600 million last min financing is the point that the deal should have been stopped to prevent stock holder and company loses. On this issue alone, Mike has a money trail of profiteering and RICO that will put Mel in Jail for years.
4. Hard and court proven evidence that Sirius attempted to evade liability for all of the above by bringing in a professional plaintiff and law firm to bring a class derivatives lawsuit against Sirius (Suite themselves) and agree in an iron clad protection settlement that prevent additional stock holders from suing.
This is just 4 of 16 things Mike has on Sirius. Anyone who thinks this is a waist needs and enema.
In Mike’s spare time, he has traced two trading companies that have been used for massive Naked Short Trading Sirius via offshore and some US holding companies. The investigation continues to point back to Sirius and collusion with GS in a washed money trail. A little discover from a court suit will be interesting indeed.
The true Consumer and Stock Holder Advocate in Sirius is (in my opinion) Mike Hartleib. I owned a large east coast Internet service and was involved and prevailed in a TELCO suit that did not have half the smoke in the gun used by Sirius. Look out Mel, because Mike Hartleib is the mad dog that has a big bite and he will never let go…
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
Sportster 5 Radio + Vehicle Kit - Reconditioned
Model#: BSP5TK1R
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MSRP: $169.99
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MarKbMarK November 2008
I was in phone contact with Sirius, Patrick Reilly Today; November 6, 2008 who retuned my call for inquiry as to his claim the Michael Hartleib Derivative Case was dismissed. Reilly informed me the case had been dismissed. However, I had to push him hard before he admitted the case was given leave to re-file and that action is pending. Reilly was very misleading in his press release and his response to me. Clearly, Sirius first response has been to cover up the deception with more deception.
After speaking with Reilly, my opinion is the plan for Sirius is to dilute, Rev-Split, and then short their own stock and use the stolen money to buy the company on the cheap and go private or sell. I have spoken to a lot of crooks and wheeler-dealers and Reilly is a spin mastering crook. Sirius is up to no good!
I also called Michael Hartleib today for the first time. After weeks of email I was pleased to finally talk to the "Crazy Uncle" as some have nick named him. After 20 min phone conversation I was spinning in a world full of deception previously unknown to me. People, this guy , Michael Hartleib could put Mel and Company in jail for a very long time.
If Michael Hartleib can get this case into a court and perform just a little discovery, truly life will change for Mel. Michael Hartleib has outstanding hard and factual evidence to show:
1. FCC collusion to dominate SAT bandwidth,
2. Hard facts never released about the Merger that show Mel knew XM would have filed chapter 7 within a few months and the FCC License requirement would have given XM to Sirius at a substantial discount.
3. Hard facts about the $600 million last min financing is the point that the deal should have been stopped to prevent stock holder and company loses. On this issue alone, Michael has a money trail of profiteering and RICO that will put Mel in Jail for years.
4. Hard and court proven evidence that Sirius attempted to evade liability for all of the above by bringing in a professional plaintiff and law firm to bring a class action lawsuit against Sirius (Sued themselves) and agree in an iron clad protection settlement that prevented additional stockholders from suing.
In Mike's spare time, he has traced two trading companies that have been used for massive Naked Short Trading Sirius via offshore and some US holding companies. The investigation continues to point back to Sirius and collusion with GS in a washed money trail. A little discover from a court suit will be interesting indeed.
The true Consumer and Stock Holder Advocate in Sirius is (in my opinion) Mike Hartleib. I owned a large east coast Internet service and was involved and prevailed in a TELCO suit that did not have half the smoke in the gun used by Sirius. Look out Mel, because Mike Hartleib is the mad dog that has a big bite and he will never let go…
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split