What Will Sirius' Q3 Look Like? 37 comments
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While Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) has not yet made an announcement about when they will have their Q3 2008 conference call, we can tell from SEC regulations that we will see the information by Monday, November 10, 2008. It is for this reason that I believe that we will see an 8:00 AM conference call on Monday.
The big question in everyone’s mind is what this quarter will look like. Will synergies be noticeable at this point? Will there be a lot of One Time charges? Will guidance be given?
What the street is expecting is a loss of 9 cents on revenue of $587 million.
One thing is certain. There will be a lot of information to digest. How are various metrics going to be tallied? What impact will the merger related expenses have? What types of synergies are we beginning to see?
Often when a quarterly report is issued, there is a swift reaction in the equity. This is one case where a bit of patience may be prudent. When the report is issued, investors should consider the information very carefully. They should make an effort to understand the expenses, and whether they are operational or one time events. They should look at how various metrics are counted, and get a full understanding of where the company is heading.
In my opinion, a PR about the Q3 call will be issued on 11-6 or 11-7.
Position - Long SIRI
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This article has 37 comments:
Dear Mel and Company
When ever you make your 3rd Q report please remember the only thing stock holders want to hear is the following:
1. 2008 Debt is fully financed and no more dilution required.
2. Guarantee 2009 Debt will be financed in full and without a Rev-stock split
3. A Guarantee that no Rev Split will be done unless required by NASDq
4. An apology for silence after file a confusing SEC requesting issue and splits
5. An apology for scarring long term investors with a rev-stock split
6. Your personal guarantee the company will not be taken private
7. Status and guarantee the company will not file Chapter 7 or 11
This is all we want to hear. Say anything less and your toast….
Mel, some very pissed off investors will be seeing you December 18th.
Vote No Rev Split
Vote No More Shares
CALL SIRIUS AND GET YOU PROXY. MAKE THEM MAIL THEM PROPERLY <<< --- Mailed Nov 4. Make sure you get yours in the mail!
A complete response to the lawsuit filed needs to be a priority, especially comments on 'going private'. Mel needs to just address this directly if he hopes to put it behind him.
PR Newswire
Posted: 2008-11-06 08:00:00
Company to Report Third Quarter 2008 Earnings on November 10, 2008
NEW YORK, Nov. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SIRIUS XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) today released an outline of its five-year operational and financial forecast.
The company is in discussions with several financial institutions regarding a financing to replace its 2-1/2% Convertible Notes due 2009. In connection with these discussions, the company is releasing the material elements of its five-year operational and financial forecast.
(Logo: www.newscom.com/cgi-bi... )
The material elements of the projections are:
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
(Subscribers in millions; dollar amounts in billions)
Subscribers 20.6 22.1 24.0 26.2 28.4
Revenue $2.7 $3.0 $3.4 $3.8 $4.1
Adjusted
EBITDA* $0.3 $0.6 $0.9 $1.3 $1.5
Free Cash
Flow* $0.0 $0.4 $0.6 $1.0 $1.4
*Adjusted EBITDA is net income / (loss) from operations plus equity expense and depreciation and amortization expense. Free cash flow is derived from net change in cash and cash equivalents plus cash flow from financing activities and other investment activity. Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow are non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP is attached to this press release. The projections shown above do not give effect to any adjustments that may occur in respect of the valuation of XM's assets and liabilities acquired in the merger. Any such adjustments could materially affect certain of these projections.
Current economic conditions, particularly the dramatic and recent slow down in auto sales, have negatively impacted subscriber growth for 2008 and 2009. The company expects to end 2008 with 19.1 million subscribers and end 2009 with 20.6 million subscribers. The company remains confident in its Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2008 and 2009, which remains unchanged.
SIRIUS XM plans to release third quarter 2008 financial and operating results on Monday, November 10, 2008.
The company plans to hold a conference call at 4:30 pm ET on Monday, November 10, 2008 to discuss these results, at which time the company will address questions, including questions regarding the forecast outlined above. Investors and the press can listen to the conference call via the company's website, sirius.com, and on its satellite radio service by tuning to SIRIUS channel 113 or XM Live, channel 90.
A replay of the call will be available on sirius.com.
SIRIUS XM and its subsidiaries expect to file their Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q with the SEC on November 10, 2008. Copies can be obtained by visiting investor.sirius.com.
Lets face it if they handle the debt their on the road up. If not......
Their are two types of interested parties here. People who can't let go of their stock this low and people who want to know if it has hit bottom and its time to buy.
In reading the results on Market Watch, well down the page, there is a paragraph stating the...
........ although we are in discussions with several financial institutions regarding a possible financing to replace its 2-1/2% Convertible Notes, as agreement for such financing may not be achieved or if achieved may not be achieved on favorable terms....
This is separated from the initial announcement, stating that they are in discussions with financial institutions regarding this debt. I think most investors want to hear exactly how this debt will be financed, not that they are still having discussions. The discussion that investors need to hear is How? and When? and at What Cost?
Aside from that, I think the third quarter numbers will be negative, which is not a surprise. The sub numbers are going to be the bigger problem. The company was at a little over 18.1M and Mel was using 18.5 M for end of the year at the time of the merger, which everyone saw as low balling. Adding 600M subs in six months to get to 19.1M is not going to thrill anyone to the up side, but at least it shows them growing in a horrific environment.
I think the pre market is just excitement with the gross numbers. 19.1 M shows growth but nothing firmly announced on the Feb debt will be a problem once everyone realizes that they are not reporting what they want to hear. DEBT Refinanced or taken out and here is how.
For me personally I need to hear about the debt and how before taking a new position here. I hope others who are looking to get out and renter use any bounce here to do that but there really isn't anything relevant being announced. The SEC requires they report the numbers by Monday and this is the beginning of that process. All of the detail needs to be gone through before I will risk a position here. I agree with you that there will be time and opportunity next week.
I wasn't logged in to my Marketwatch. Yes, I see this release as an attempt to soften the blow for Monday. They might even get up to .35 at the open but to me that will be MM trap. Then a big takedown back to .26ish. My hope would be closing tomorow @ maybe .22, then a big spike down on Monday AM to maybe .16, there I'm a buyer.
SatRad is a high tech company that has their entire business model tied to old tech automobiles. Sirius owns the best broadcast talent avaialable. Why they don't aggressively make deals with newer technology is beyond me.
Heck, cell phones are going to be streaming NFL games. Why doesn't Sirius have deals with cell phone providers to buy a few channels? How many cell users would plunk down $5-6/month just to get Howard Stern? And that's only one of many possibilities. Customers could listen anywhere, not just in their car.
I agree as you know on your entry point.... for me I'm getting in anywhere around .20 unless as you say it takes a spike down. Needless to say I'll be there watching with my finger on the trigger..... Good Luck in your trades today. I'm trying to unwind my small position in CLNE, Clean Energy today after Prop 10 in California going down, I'm taking a small beating...... oh well....
All I can say is that I am holding off until I see the block of shares pulled away that is supporting the current price. Right now there is around 300K shares supporting .29 and 350K supporting .30 . As long is this is present the stock price is artificial IMHO. If they want to hold any one price they are throwing large all or nothing trades at it to support their agenda. They are whoever is holding all these shares to short the stock and manipulate the price. I am still looking for low .20's to high teens.
That sucks. So many variables. I heard about those couple of Props in CA that were rejected.
Btw..I won't post here, as many have probably seen already but Reuters and TheStreet.com have reported this morning about SIRI saying auto sales have hurt them this Q and will next. So there are some bad numbers in essence dripping out. I will say this about SIRI. They are no dummies when it comes to spin or releasing info.
Also with LIBOR now down significantly...if what Mel said is still true about LIBOR + 6 or 7...traditional financing would be about 8%. High, but way better than the 10-12 they were looking at last mo. Also, all should keep in mind that they are not obligated to do anything on that issue until Feb. That's still 4 long months away and knowing what they face currently, logic says they will use all of their clock. IMO esp since they no longer have to even worry about starting a delisting clock until mid Jan. It's entirely possible your scenario about approving the extra shares & reverse but not implementing right away will play out. Then in early Feb, they will decide which trigger to pull.
In 87 the market bounced up and down like a basketball for several months after the big drop. I am not worried about the eventual recovery. It will happen or else money won't matter. (Put it all into canned goods and shotgun shells while you can) There will come a day between now and the end of Feb where it will be correct to buy. (I have no doubts at all they have a handle on Feb debt)(but then there is still May and Dec)
In support of what I said above, as the stock just hit .29 another 400K shares were thrown at .29 to maintain the level then pulled and 300K was set at .28. This is an orderly take down of this stock.
I just posted on SiriusBuzz.com that I wouldn't be surprised to see a negative Net Adds to subscriber growth... which is why the revision to 19.1M subs by end of the year.... We all new the 18.5 was wrong at time of merger with where they were already and knowing historically how the 4Q sub growth has been. Sirius alone has gotten 1M subs in the 4Q. I am not surprised that penetration rates are not going to be able to offset the auto industry melt down anymore....
From Monday till March(pull back in late dec to mid jan) will be a wonderful run up in energy stocks, commodity prices, and gold stocks. Good luck. If you dont believe me, Ill check on you again in mid december.
Main market is going to enter a major bear rally. One more huge sell off possible, but after Monday, if it dont happen, its not going too.
Sirius may do well in this time frame. It may not. Dont know. Dont care anymore.
However , we do notice he is yakking a little about trying to get bank financing ........the operative word being "trying" .......duh
So in my opinion it is much ado about nothing ........but this new distribution company MIGHT be a good thing ........The last one sucked
Now it is possible that the previous dist. company leaving is bad news ( if they're thinking Siri sucks ) .....but MAYBE , they were fired by Siri , because THEY sucked ( That would be a good thing , as retail display has been less than stellar )
All Insider Trades
11 Feb 2009 FREAR DAVID J Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Gift 1,500,000 $0.00
22 Jan 2009 MEYER JAMES E President Gift 707,000 $0.00
22 Jan 2009 GREENSTEIN SCOTT ANDREW President Gift 607,000 $0.00
22 Jan 2009 FREAR DAVID J Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Gift 483,000 $0.00
22 Jan 2009 CALDERONE ADRIENNE E Senior Vice President & Controller Gift 156,000 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 MCGUINESS MICHAEL J Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 LIEBERFARB WARREN N Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 MOONEY JAMES F Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 GILBERTI LAWRENCE F Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 HOLDEN JAMES P Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
14 Aug 2008 BLACK LEON D Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 AMBLE JOAN LORDI Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 AMBLE JOAN LORDI Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 ZIENTS JEFFREY D Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 ZIENTS JEFFREY D Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 HARTENSTEIN EDDY W Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 HARTENSTEIN EDDY W Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
27 Jul 2008 HARTENSTEIN EDDY W Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
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27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 149,500 $0.00
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27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 3,450,000 $0.00
All Insider Trades
www.reuters.com/financ...=
All Insider Trades
Take a look at what the executives have been giving themselves while we've been taking it in the shorts.
www.reuters.com/financ...=
I've seen you mention many times the manipulation that is happening to bring the stock down. From what I understand, people are controlling the price by using large blocks of shares listed at various prices. My question is, how does a stock overcome this? Are we pretty much hooped as regular shareholders?
Hooped is a good word for it..... My opinion is that they are manipulating the stock in both directions. Right now, my opinion is they are slowly taking the stock down to the low .20, high teens after the conference call, over a period of time and assisted by Monday's 3Q report. They will then take the stock back up, eventually. It is hard to say when because the news in general on Monday will not be horrible, but will not provide momentum to go up until some news or these manipulators want it too.
I follow the stocks price daily and make my judgments based on what the momentum is on level ll trading. The best I can do is make a strategy of buying and selling shares based on where I think they are taking the stock price. None of my accounts let me trade in and out on a daily basis because my account is set up for retail trading with 3 day confirmations on funds transferred without penalties. The professional money managers and registered day traders do not have this restriction. Given their amount of shares available for trading and their unrestricted ability to trade, its not hard to see how they can control the price. IMHO
MarKbMarK November 2008
I was in phone contact with Sirius, Patrick Reilly Today, November 6, 2008 who retuned my call for inquiery as to his claim the Mick Hartlib Derivatives Case was dismissed. Reilly informed me the case had been dismissed. However, I had to push him hard before he admitted the case was given leave to re-file and that action is not pending. Reilly was very misleading in his press release and his response to me. Clearly, Sirius first response has been to cover up the deception with more deception.
After speaking with Reilly, my opinion is the plan for Sirius is to dilute, Rev-Split, and then short their own stock and use the stolen money to buy the company on the cheap and go private or sell. I have spoken to a lot of crooks and wheeler-dealers and Reilly is a spin mastering crook. Sirius is up to no good!
I also called Mike Hartleib today for the first time. After weeks of email I was please to finally talk to the “Crazy Uncle” as some have nick named him. After 20 min phone conversation I was spinning in a world full of deception previously unknown to me. People, this guy Mike H. could put Mel and Company in jail for a very long time.
If Mike H can get this case into a court and perform just a little discovery, truly life will change for Mel. Mike has outstanding hard and factual evidence to show:
1. FCC collusion to dominate SAT bandwidth,
2. Hard facts never release about the Merger that show Mel knew XM would have filed chapter 7 within a few months and the FCC License requirement would have given XM to Sirius at a substantial discount.
3. Hard facts about the $600 million last min financing is the point that the deal should have been stopped to prevent stock holder and company loses. On this issue alone, Mike has a money trail of profiteering and RICO that will put Mel in Jail for years.
4. Hard and court proven evidence that Sirius attempted to evade liability for all of the above by bringing in a professional plaintiff and law firm to bring a class derivatives lawsuit against Sirius (Suite themselves) and agree in an iron clad protection settlement that prevent additional stock holders from suing.
This is just 4 of 16 things Mike has on Sirius. Anyone who thinks this is a waist needs and enema.
In Mike’s spare time, he has traced two trading companies that have been used for massive Naked Short Trading Sirius via offshore and some US holding companies. The investigation continues to point back to Sirius and collusion with GS in a washed money trail. A little discover from a court suit will be interesting indeed.
The true Consumer and Stock Holder Advocate in Sirius is (in my opinion) Mike Hartleib. I owned a large east coast Internet service and was involved and prevailed in a TELCO suit that did not have half the smoke in the gun used by Sirius. Look out Mel, because Mike Hartleib is the mad dog that has a big bite and he will never let go…
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
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MarKbMarK November 2008
I was in phone contact with Sirius, Patrick Reilly Today; November 6, 2008 who retuned my call for inquiry as to his claim the Michael Hartleib Derivative Case was dismissed. Reilly informed me the case had been dismissed. However, I had to push him hard before he admitted the case was given leave to re-file and that action is pending. Reilly was very misleading in his press release and his response to me. Clearly, Sirius first response has been to cover up the deception with more deception.
After speaking with Reilly, my opinion is the plan for Sirius is to dilute, Rev-Split, and then short their own stock and use the stolen money to buy the company on the cheap and go private or sell. I have spoken to a lot of crooks and wheeler-dealers and Reilly is a spin mastering crook. Sirius is up to no good!
I also called Michael Hartleib today for the first time. After weeks of email I was pleased to finally talk to the "Crazy Uncle" as some have nick named him. After 20 min phone conversation I was spinning in a world full of deception previously unknown to me. People, this guy , Michael Hartleib could put Mel and Company in jail for a very long time.
If Michael Hartleib can get this case into a court and perform just a little discovery, truly life will change for Mel. Michael Hartleib has outstanding hard and factual evidence to show:
1. FCC collusion to dominate SAT bandwidth,
2. Hard facts never released about the Merger that show Mel knew XM would have filed chapter 7 within a few months and the FCC License requirement would have given XM to Sirius at a substantial discount.
3. Hard facts about the $600 million last min financing is the point that the deal should have been stopped to prevent stock holder and company loses. On this issue alone, Michael has a money trail of profiteering and RICO that will put Mel in Jail for years.
4. Hard and court proven evidence that Sirius attempted to evade liability for all of the above by bringing in a professional plaintiff and law firm to bring a class action lawsuit against Sirius (Sued themselves) and agree in an iron clad protection settlement that prevented additional stockholders from suing.
In Mike's spare time, he has traced two trading companies that have been used for massive Naked Short Trading Sirius via offshore and some US holding companies. The investigation continues to point back to Sirius and collusion with GS in a washed money trail. A little discover from a court suit will be interesting indeed.
The true Consumer and Stock Holder Advocate in Sirius is (in my opinion) Mike Hartleib. I owned a large east coast Internet service and was involved and prevailed in a TELCO suit that did not have half the smoke in the gun used by Sirius. Look out Mel, because Mike Hartleib is the mad dog that has a big bite and he will never let go…
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split