Seeking Alpha
About this author:
Submit
an article to

While Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) has not yet made an announcement about when they will have their Q3 2008 conference call, we can tell from SEC regulations that we will see the information by Monday, November 10, 2008. It is for this reason that I believe that we will see an 8:00 AM conference call on Monday.

The big question in everyone’s mind is what this quarter will look like. Will synergies be noticeable at this point? Will there be a lot of One Time charges? Will guidance be given?

What the street is expecting is a loss of 9 cents on revenue of $587 million.

One thing is certain. There will be a lot of information to digest. How are various metrics going to be tallied? What impact will the merger related expenses have? What types of synergies are we beginning to see?

Often when a quarterly report is issued, there is a swift reaction in the equity. This is one case where a bit of patience may be prudent. When the report is issued, investors should consider the information very carefully. They should make an effort to understand the expenses, and whether they are operational or one time events. They should look at how various metrics are counted, and get a full understanding of where the company is heading.

In my opinion, a PR about the Q3 call will be issued on 11-6 or 11-7.

Position - Long SIRI

Print this article with comments
Comments
37
Older > Comments 1 - 20 out of 37
You are viewing the latest 20 comments
  •  
    Im starting to like up the tailpipe again.... As long as u keep it funny, and not personal.....
    2008 Nov 06 10:09 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    chizzle

    All I can say is that I am holding off until I see the block of shares pulled away that is supporting the current price. Right now there is around 300K shares supporting .29 and 350K supporting .30 . As long is this is present the stock price is artificial IMHO. If they want to hold any one price they are throwing large all or nothing trades at it to support their agenda. They are whoever is holding all these shares to short the stock and manipulate the price. I am still looking for low .20's to high teens.
    2008 Nov 06 10:10 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cos1000...

    That sucks. So many variables. I heard about those couple of Props in CA that were rejected.

    Btw..I won't post here, as many have probably seen already but Reuters and TheStreet.com have reported this morning about SIRI saying auto sales have hurt them this Q and will next. So there are some bad numbers in essence dripping out. I will say this about SIRI. They are no dummies when it comes to spin or releasing info.

    Also with LIBOR now down significantly...if what Mel said is still true about LIBOR + 6 or 7...traditional financing would be about 8%. High, but way better than the 10-12 they were looking at last mo. Also, all should keep in mind that they are not obligated to do anything on that issue until Feb. That's still 4 long months away and knowing what they face currently, logic says they will use all of their clock. IMO esp since they no longer have to even worry about starting a delisting clock until mid Jan. It's entirely possible your scenario about approving the extra shares & reverse but not implementing right away will play out. Then in early Feb, they will decide which trigger to pull.
    2008 Nov 06 10:10 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Hi, And we still don't know how much of this is plain old market after shocks.
    In 87 the market bounced up and down like a basketball for several months after the big drop. I am not worried about the eventual recovery. It will happen or else money won't matter. (Put it all into canned goods and shotgun shells while you can) There will come a day between now and the end of Feb where it will be correct to buy. (I have no doubts at all they have a handle on Feb debt)(but then there is still May and Dec)
    2008 Nov 06 10:22 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    chizzle,

    In support of what I said above, as the stock just hit .29 another 400K shares were thrown at .29 to maintain the level then pulled and 300K was set at .28. This is an orderly take down of this stock.
    2008 Nov 06 10:35 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    s162

    I just posted on SiriusBuzz.com that I wouldn't be surprised to see a negative Net Adds to subscriber growth... which is why the revision to 19.1M subs by end of the year.... We all new the 18.5 was wrong at time of merger with where they were already and knowing historically how the 4Q sub growth has been. Sirius alone has gotten 1M subs in the 4Q. I am not surprised that penetration rates are not going to be able to offset the auto industry melt down anymore....
    2008 Nov 06 10:40 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cos...................... tough luck on your CLNE buy, but it was a spec. that I thought would pay off. Oh well.......... move on. Thanks for yours, sl62's, and relmor's input this morn. I cancelled all of my siri buys this morning, will wait to see what happens after monday's report. I feel an icy wind blowing and building................. I don't care to get caught in this storm. The Dog and I are going to fort up and wait for this to pass. The bargain basement prices could hit next week. Best of luck everyone. Patience. ...killer.
    2008 Nov 06 11:03 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Thanks killer...... I decided to wait to end of day on CLNE to unwind its making a little come back , but as you said was strictly a spec play now I need to find something else.... After selling all my positions, other than CLNE, on Tues and Wed morning, everything is retracing down to before pre election levels. Next week will be good for many opportunities. Good Luck and stay warm.....
    2008 Nov 06 11:10 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Ok, Sirius fans. Ready to make some money back? Good.
    From Monday till March(pull back in late dec to mid jan) will be a wonderful run up in energy stocks, commodity prices, and gold stocks. Good luck. If you dont believe me, Ill check on you again in mid december.
    Main market is going to enter a major bear rally. One more huge sell off possible, but after Monday, if it dont happen, its not going too.
    Sirius may do well in this time frame. It may not. Dont know. Dont care anymore.
    2008 Nov 06 11:51 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cos................ thanks for that, we got about three feet of snow last night w/wind, with good moisture in it. Not much moving today. Will have to take a break here and fix some eggs, bacon and toast with butter and chokecherry preserves for breakfast. Then need to get out the snowblower and clear the road coming into the place, and shovel off the decks. After that I think I'll go check on my buddy's horses to make sure their water isn't froze up and their hay is clear of snow. My dog Lothar, likes to go for a ride anyway. Maybe take a look at aapl............... I bought some at 101. a share this morn and have another buy in at 98. Good luck on your trades buddy. Back in a bit. ..killer.
    2008 Nov 06 11:52 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    s162 - I don't know what all the new press releases mean , other than Mel is starting to realize we are all getting pretty pissed around here .........I don't suspect there is going to be anything good to hear , he is just going to parrot sub projections , and synergy numbers ( yawn )

    However , we do notice he is yakking a little about trying to get bank financing ........the operative word being "trying" .......duh

    So in my opinion it is much ado about nothing ........but this new distribution company MIGHT be a good thing ........The last one sucked

    Now it is possible that the previous dist. company leaving is bad news ( if they're thinking Siri sucks ) .....but MAYBE , they were fired by Siri , because THEY sucked ( That would be a good thing , as retail display has been less than stellar )
    2008 Nov 06 12:21 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cos - Be careful with these "green" energy stocks .....they sound great , but this country needs major infrastructure to really get on board with all the renewables ........no one will be unseating the hydrocarbon king anytime soon ...........people can run around in their little electric cars thinking they are saving the world ....but electricity mainly comes from ......you guessed it HYDROCARBONS !!!!!!!! hahahahah Not to mention , people are going to raise hell about the price of new lithium batteries !!!!!!! Watch and see when the Prius crowd goes to the service center in 5 years needing new batteries , and the dealer says " That'll be 5 grand lady " ...........I am not sure what CLNE is , but it appears to be "clean energy" , so I am assuming it is one of these new green companies that will probably be the new "dot coms"
    2008 Nov 06 12:34 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Sirius XM Radio Inc

    All Insider Trades

    11 Feb 2009 FREAR DAVID J Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Gift 1,500,000 $0.00
    22 Jan 2009 MEYER JAMES E President Gift 707,000 $0.00
    22 Jan 2009 GREENSTEIN SCOTT ANDREW President Gift 607,000 $0.00
    22 Jan 2009 FREAR DAVID J Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Gift 483,000 $0.00
    22 Jan 2009 CALDERONE ADRIENNE E Senior Vice President & Controller Gift 156,000 $0.00
    14 Aug 2008 MCGUINESS MICHAEL J Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
    14 Aug 2008 LIEBERFARB WARREN N Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
    14 Aug 2008 MOONEY JAMES F Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
    14 Aug 2008 GILBERTI LAWRENCE F Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
    14 Aug 2008 HOLDEN JAMES P Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
    14 Aug 2008 BLACK LEON D Director Gift 45,962 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 AMBLE JOAN LORDI Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 AMBLE JOAN LORDI Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 ZIENTS JEFFREY D Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 ZIENTS JEFFREY D Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 HARTENSTEIN EDDY W Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 HARTENSTEIN EDDY W Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 HARTENSTEIN EDDY W Director Gift 46,000 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 1,840,000 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 690,000 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 1,230,822 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 1,230,500 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 149,500 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 1,150,000 $0.00
    27 Jul 2008 PARSONS GARY M Director Gift 3,450,000 $0.00
    2008 Nov 06 02:34 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Sirius XM Radio Inc

    All Insider Trades

    www.reuters.com/financ...=
    2008 Nov 06 02:35 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Sirius XM Radio Inc

    All Insider Trades

    Take a look at what the executives have been giving themselves while we've been taking it in the shorts.
    www.reuters.com/financ...=
    2008 Nov 06 02:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    cos1000,

    I've seen you mention many times the manipulation that is happening to bring the stock down. From what I understand, people are controlling the price by using large blocks of shares listed at various prices. My question is, how does a stock overcome this? Are we pretty much hooped as regular shareholders?
    2008 Nov 06 03:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Sirius Long Hauler

    Hooped is a good word for it..... My opinion is that they are manipulating the stock in both directions. Right now, my opinion is they are slowly taking the stock down to the low .20, high teens after the conference call, over a period of time and assisted by Monday's 3Q report. They will then take the stock back up, eventually. It is hard to say when because the news in general on Monday will not be horrible, but will not provide momentum to go up until some news or these manipulators want it too.

    I follow the stocks price daily and make my judgments based on what the momentum is on level ll trading. The best I can do is make a strategy of buying and selling shares based on where I think they are taking the stock price. None of my accounts let me trade in and out on a daily basis because my account is set up for retail trading with 3 day confirmations on funds transferred without penalties. The professional money managers and registered day traders do not have this restriction. Given their amount of shares available for trading and their unrestricted ability to trade, its not hard to see how they can control the price. IMHO
    2008 Nov 06 07:04 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Update Stock Manipulation and Sirius Lawsuit
    MarKbMarK November 2008

    I was in phone contact with Sirius, Patrick Reilly Today, November 6, 2008 who retuned my call for inquiery as to his claim the Mick Hartlib Derivatives Case was dismissed. Reilly informed me the case had been dismissed. However, I had to push him hard before he admitted the case was given leave to re-file and that action is not pending. Reilly was very misleading in his press release and his response to me. Clearly, Sirius first response has been to cover up the deception with more deception.

    After speaking with Reilly, my opinion is the plan for Sirius is to dilute, Rev-Split, and then short their own stock and use the stolen money to buy the company on the cheap and go private or sell. I have spoken to a lot of crooks and wheeler-dealers and Reilly is a spin mastering crook. Sirius is up to no good!

    I also called Mike Hartleib today for the first time. After weeks of email I was please to finally talk to the “Crazy Uncle” as some have nick named him. After 20 min phone conversation I was spinning in a world full of deception previously unknown to me. People, this guy Mike H. could put Mel and Company in jail for a very long time.

    If Mike H can get this case into a court and perform just a little discovery, truly life will change for Mel. Mike has outstanding hard and factual evidence to show:
    1. FCC collusion to dominate SAT bandwidth,
    2. Hard facts never release about the Merger that show Mel knew XM would have filed chapter 7 within a few months and the FCC License requirement would have given XM to Sirius at a substantial discount.
    3. Hard facts about the $600 million last min financing is the point that the deal should have been stopped to prevent stock holder and company loses. On this issue alone, Mike has a money trail of profiteering and RICO that will put Mel in Jail for years.
    4. Hard and court proven evidence that Sirius attempted to evade liability for all of the above by bringing in a professional plaintiff and law firm to bring a class derivatives lawsuit against Sirius (Suite themselves) and agree in an iron clad protection settlement that prevent additional stock holders from suing.

    This is just 4 of 16 things Mike has on Sirius. Anyone who thinks this is a waist needs and enema.

    In Mike’s spare time, he has traced two trading companies that have been used for massive Naked Short Trading Sirius via offshore and some US holding companies. The investigation continues to point back to Sirius and collusion with GS in a washed money trail. A little discover from a court suit will be interesting indeed.

    The true Consumer and Stock Holder Advocate in Sirius is (in my opinion) Mike Hartleib. I owned a large east coast Internet service and was involved and prevailed in a TELCO suit that did not have half the smoke in the gun used by Sirius. Look out Mel, because Mike Hartleib is the mad dog that has a big bite and he will never let go…

    Long, very long and deep in Sirius.

    Vote no Rev Split
    2008 Nov 06 09:02 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Go to sirius.com and buy something for Christmas presents. Great deal on sportster 5 (reconditioned) with 3 month plan! I bought three for the holidays! Great and inexpensive gift!

    Sportster 5 Radio + Vehicle Kit - Reconditioned

    Model#: BSP5TK1R

    The Sportster 5 boasts a vivid multi-color display, simple navigation, advanced features and everything you need to enjoy SIRIUS in your vehicle. Optional universal accessory docking kits and audio systems easily allow this radio to be used in your
    home, boat, office or in additional vehicles.



    Is this a gift? Yes No

    Choose a subscription below if you want to add the recipient's subscription to your account. OR, visit our Gift Packages page to choose a radio and pre-paid subscription card package.

    View Gift Packages

    MSRP: $169.99


    You Pay: Discount† $69.99

    Choose your SIRIUS Everything Plan*:

    Updating pricing
    3 Months - $38.85 6 Months - $77.70 1 Year, 1 Mo Free - $142.45 2 Year, 3 Mo Free - $271.95 Do not include subscription - $0.00 Subscribers pay as little as $6.99/mo.
    Discounted rates applied at checkout




    2008 Nov 06 10:21 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Update Stock Manipulation and Sirius Lawsuit (Correction Post)
    MarKbMarK November 2008

    I was in phone contact with Sirius, Patrick Reilly Today; November 6, 2008 who retuned my call for inquiry as to his claim the Michael Hartleib Derivative Case was dismissed. Reilly informed me the case had been dismissed. However, I had to push him hard before he admitted the case was given leave to re-file and that action is pending. Reilly was very misleading in his press release and his response to me. Clearly, Sirius first response has been to cover up the deception with more deception.

    After speaking with Reilly, my opinion is the plan for Sirius is to dilute, Rev-Split, and then short their own stock and use the stolen money to buy the company on the cheap and go private or sell. I have spoken to a lot of crooks and wheeler-dealers and Reilly is a spin mastering crook. Sirius is up to no good!

    I also called Michael Hartleib today for the first time. After weeks of email I was pleased to finally talk to the "Crazy Uncle" as some have nick named him. After 20 min phone conversation I was spinning in a world full of deception previously unknown to me. People, this guy , Michael Hartleib could put Mel and Company in jail for a very long time.

    If Michael Hartleib can get this case into a court and perform just a little discovery, truly life will change for Mel. Michael Hartleib has outstanding hard and factual evidence to show:
    1. FCC collusion to dominate SAT bandwidth,

    2. Hard facts never released about the Merger that show Mel knew XM would have filed chapter 7 within a few months and the FCC License requirement would have given XM to Sirius at a substantial discount.

    3. Hard facts about the $600 million last min financing is the point that the deal should have been stopped to prevent stock holder and company loses. On this issue alone, Michael has a money trail of profiteering and RICO that will put Mel in Jail for years.

    4. Hard and court proven evidence that Sirius attempted to evade liability for all of the above by bringing in a professional plaintiff and law firm to bring a class action lawsuit against Sirius (Sued themselves) and agree in an iron clad protection settlement that prevented additional stockholders from suing.

    In Mike's spare time, he has traced two trading companies that have been used for massive Naked Short Trading Sirius via offshore and some US holding companies. The investigation continues to point back to Sirius and collusion with GS in a washed money trail. A little discover from a court suit will be interesting indeed.

    The true Consumer and Stock Holder Advocate in Sirius is (in my opinion) Mike Hartleib. I owned a large east coast Internet service and was involved and prevailed in a TELCO suit that did not have half the smoke in the gun used by Sirius. Look out Mel, because Mike Hartleib is the mad dog that has a big bite and he will never let go…

    Long, very long and deep in Sirius.

    Vote no Rev Split

    2008 Nov 06 11:52 PM | Link | Reply
Viewing Comments 1-20 out of 37 Older comments >