Electronic Arts (ERTS) has had a rough year. The failed run at Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) was a major distraction. Last week, ERTS announced more poor financial results. Analysts are openly questioning the company’s strategy while others are raising the question of $ERTS now being a takeover candidate themselves. So how does the current share price look from an intrinsic value perspective?
Valuecruncher produces a valuation of US$25.48 for ERTS. This is a current valuation (an estimate of intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model) not a target price. This valuation is 13.9% above the current share price of US$22.37.
- Revenue: Reuters aggregates 21analysts covering ERTS and these analysts have mean estimates of 2009 and 2010 revenues of US$5.1 billion and US$5.8 billion respectively. For our analysis we have used US$5.0 billion in 2009, US$5.65 billion in 2010 and US$6.15 billion in 2011.
- Profitability: We have used an EBITDA margin of 11.5% in 2009 rising to 12.5% in 2011. Reuters has ERTS‘s EBITD margin at minus 6.9% last year and averaging 11.8% over the last five-years.
- Capital Expenditure: We have assumed capital expenditures of US$150 million per annum moving forward.
- Discount Rate: 11.0%.
- Terminal Growth Rate: 4.0%.
Our analysis incorporates the cash on the ERTS balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.
Play with our assumptions – what does your analysis say?