Sirius XM Releases 5-Year Guidance: Aggressive or Conservative? 38 comments
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As anticipated here on SiriusBuzz, Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) came out with a press release Thursday on the Q3 reporting. The company will issue their quarterly report Monday, November 10, 2008, and will host a conference call the same day at 4:30 PM.
Perhaps more important than the guidance provided by Sirius XM Radio is the reason that the guidance was issued. The company states, “The company is in discussions with several financial institutions regarding a financing to replace its 2-1/2% Convertible Notes due 2009. In connection with these discussions, the company is releasing the material elements of its five-year operational and financial forecast.”
Refinancing of the debt has been a huge weight on the stock ever since the financial market collapse two months ago, and any news that a successful refinancing is happening could serve as a boost to the price per share.
Among the news was the release of guidance for the next five years.
————-2009E——–2010E——–2011E——–2012E——–2013E
(Subscribers in millions; dollar amounts in billions)
Subscribers—20.6———22.1———-24.0———-26.2———28.4
Revenue——$2.7———$3.0———-$3.4———-$3.8———$4.1
Adjusted
EBITDA*——$0.3———$0.6———-$0.9———-$1.3———$1.5
Free Cash
Flow*——–$0.0———-$0.4———-$0.6———$1.0———$1.4
In the past Mel Karmazin has always maintained conservative guidance. Under-Promise and Over-Deliver has been the track record. Time will tell how aggressive or conservative this guidance is. There is little doubt that a weak OEM channel has had, and will have, an impact on this company, as this is the method by which most subscribers are derived.
Position - Long SIRI
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This article has 38 comments:
good luck on your purchase... just a question though, why not average in at this price??
In a year or so, when car sales are back up to 14-16milliion, that will be 3.5 to 4 million/year subscribers right there...minus say a third for people that already subscribe...easily 2.5 million/year from autos alone. So that's 10mill in 4 years...by beginning of 2013, 10mill + additional 500Kyr at BestBuy, etc = 2 mill more...
Mel, I think it's going to be more like 30 Million by early 2013. This doesn't even factor in additional gains by new technology in the next several years, etc.
That's my take on it. I think MEL is being VERY CAUTIOUS...I've owned Sat Radio for about 5 years now...first XM, then SIR...it's not going anywhere. It's fantastic. You can't listen to live CNN on your IPOD...IPOD's suck anyway...i can't even get my ipod music onto my hard drive in my JEEP. SAT RADIO is here to stay...what an amazing service to keep my sanity as the DJ "wanna be comedians" blab on...
Cheers MEL! Cheers SAT RAD!
Ron the Rocket OUT!
Dear Mel and Company
When ever you make your 3rd Q report please remember the things stock holders want to hear are the following:
1. 2008 Debt is fully financed and no more dilution required.
2. Guarantee 2009 Debt will be financed in full and without a Rev-stock split
3. A Guarantee that no Rev Split will be done unless required by NASDq
4. An apology for silence after file a confusing SEC requesting issue and splits
5. An apology for scarring long term investors with a rev-stock split
6. Your personal guarantee the company will not be taken private
7. Status and guarantee the company will not file Chapter 7 or 11
This is what we want to hear. Say anything less and your toast….
Mel, some very pissed off investors will be seeing you December 18th.
Vote No Rev Split
Vote No More Shares
CALL SIRIUS AND GET YOU PROXY. MAKE THEM MAIL THEM PROPERLY <<< --- Mailed Nov 4. Make sure you get yours in the mail!
My Scenario!
Using a model of 30% install and a 50 renewal for the Actual Auto sales for the last 7.5 years, added with a 25% of this year gets the numbers to 19.3M Subscribers.
IMO the conservative sales rate for Autos will be 14M cars a year.
Using a model of 30% install and a 50 renewal for the Actual Auto sales for the 2.5 years (2006 & 2007), added with a 25% of the projected numbers gets the quantity to 27M Subscribers. by 2013.
Wow, anytime I am able to dump this trash stock without my current huge loses I am out. If I need to wait for 2013 I might as well sell the house before the bank takes it.
Sirius has been the most dramatic and curupted stock I have ever had the misfortune to be intested. All drama and no return!
Vote no Rev-Split
Tell Mell to kiss your under side...
Do you think that Sirius will be able to maintain favor with OEM's in keeping the revenues flowing through dashboard inclusion or will other technologies in 2013 become more favorable? Declining sales now, unfortunately weakens the secondary used car growth market also. Do you think any of the secondary market is even in the projections?
Imagine in 10 years, every car has SATRAD, push to buy song button, internet capability more TV Channels...SATRAD will also make BLT's in the future...yummy...good stuff.
Also
The success of SATRAD will have to be SatVio. A TiVio style option (30GB HARD DRIVE). The current subscribe model follows Comcast.
. . . .So. . . .why not follow suit.
Catching the Game, Howard, or Ol' time radio on demand in the car...
My numbers were just at 50% saturation...a number of even 60% install and 50% renew would achieve those numbers easily.
Under-Promise and Over-Deliver has been the track record.
Funny from five dollars to twenty cents!
>
> Under-Promise and Over-Deliver has been the track record.
>
> Funny from five dollars to twenty cents!
Like the comparison but not apples to apples. Radio am or fm was financed by the car companies and included in the price of the car, for the most part, and didn't have an ongoing subscription cost, but I'll take my BLT on wheat bread please..... I do remember, and this is telling, buying an FM modulator to hook up to my AM radio, and I did have to pay for the modulator. It got really crowded in the glove box with my 8 track, FM modulator and all of those compact 8 track tapes......
What are you smoking man... :)
"As a large stockholder, I am proud of you guys, you're successes since the merger".
When you divide your large shares of SIRI by 50 how is your investment looking then?
Since the merger the share price has nose dived to a whopping .29 cents. You call that success?
I call it sucks.
On Nov 06 05:28 PM Ricker wrote:
> A GOOD CEO, that's what Mel is working hard at being. He really
> is a gifted salesman who comes across with satifying results and
> you tend to want to buy what he is selling. Its hard to resist Mel's
> pitch, he's good. But sometimes a good salesman can get carried
> away and say alittle too much. Mel has done that too. Mouth before
> the mind. Thats the enthusiasm busting out, its uncontrollable.
> But, Mel is a perfect example of a well groomed CEO for the job at
> hand. He really loves what he does, and loves SXM. Todays news
> is really positive, I think conservative. The numbers in 2010 should
> be better than posted while new products are launched and the auto
> industry sees new light. Monday may be a bit of a set back for some
> who just read the surface of the report. Give it some time to unfold
> and let the pros decifer what it really says. However, the silence
> has been broken, and many who blog this channel should feel a little
> bit smaller with all of the hard words they have been giving Mel
> and management. Mel has been doing what he is paid to do. Go to
> work and grow the company. His latest release confirms they are
> going to grow. So, he IS getting the job done. But Mel, let the
> CFO make most of the announcements Monday. Save your salesmanship
> for the future not the reported past. Keep up the good work guys.
> As a large stockholder, I am proud of you guys, you're successes
> since the merger, and I stand proud to be a loyal subscriber and
> well wisher of the underdog, SiriusXM! Keep it up guys, and thanks!
Keep the good vibes coming! It is only a matter of TIME.
Long Sirius
In ten years every car will receive wireless internet, not sat radio.
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MarKbMarK November 2008
I was in phone contact with Sirius, Patrick Reilly Today; November 6, 2008 who retuned my call for inquiry as to his claim the Michael Hartleib Derivative Case was dismissed. Reilly informed me the case had been dismissed. However, I had to push him hard before he admitted the case was given leave to re-file and that action is pending. Reilly was very misleading in his press release and his response to me. Clearly, Sirius first response has been to cover up the deception with more deception.
After speaking with Reilly, my opinion is the plan for Sirius is to dilute, Rev-Split, and then short their own stock and use the stolen money to buy the company on the cheap and go private or sell. I have spoken to a lot of crooks and wheeler-dealers and Reilly is a spin mastering crook. Sirius is up to no good!
I also called Michael Hartleib today for the first time. After weeks of email I was pleased to finally talk to the "Crazy Uncle" as some have nick named him. After 20 min phone conversation I was spinning in a world full of deception previously unknown to me. People, this guy , Michael Hartleib could put Mel and Company in jail for a very long time.
If Michael Hartleib can get this case into a court and perform just a little discovery, truly life will change for Mel. Michael Hartleib has outstanding hard and factual evidence to show:
1. FCC collusion to dominate SAT bandwidth,
2. Hard facts never released about the Merger that show Mel knew XM would have filed chapter 7 within a few months and the FCC License requirement would have given XM to Sirius at a substantial discount.
3. Hard facts about the $600 million last min financing is the point that the deal should have been stopped to prevent stock holder and company loses. On this issue alone, Michael has a money trail of profiteering and RICO that will put Mel in Jail for years.
4. Hard and court proven evidence that Sirius attempted to evade liability for all of the above by bringing in a professional plaintiff and law firm to bring a class action lawsuit against Sirius (Sued themselves) and agree in an iron clad protection settlement that prevented additional stockholders from suing.
In Mike's spare time, he has traced two trading companies that have been used for massive Naked Short Trading Sirius via offshore and some US holding companies. The investigation continues to point back to Sirius and collusion with GS in a washed money trail. A little discover from a court suit will be interesting indeed.
The true Consumer and Stock Holder Advocate in Sirius is (in my opinion) Mike Hartleib. I owned a large east coast Internet service and was involved and prevailed in a TELCO suit that did not have half the smoke in the gun used by Sirius. Look out Mel, because Mike Hartleib is the mad dog that has a big bite and he will never let go…
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
Why not leave this company alone for, perhaps 3 years. Come back and see if its' still at 26 cents. If it is, maybe you should buy some more in it, because its' still in business!
Yep. your just an optimist.
I would buy 33 million shares if I could gain $1 billion. But I would need to do it without deception and being a crook. Mel plainly is involved in dirty work and deception. Why don't you just please call Mike H and let him show you the evidance. He is a very nice guy.
IMO, everything Mike is doing is to protect the product and share holders.
Vote no rev-split
Vote no Rev-Split
cos1000: 10/25/2008
--------- Here is a question. Why hasn't Michael submitted "Proposals Of Security Holders" under rule 14a-8 to be included in the Preliminary Proxy Statement submitted by the company under rule 14a-6??? I am not a lawyer, but if you or I were involved in ongoing litigation with the company during the merger, during the merger appeal period, and after, wouldn't you follow Proxy Statement Rules and assure that your concerns could be included in a timely filing to the company so that all shareholders would have access to the information when the company files its Proxy Statement.
Rule 14a-8 provides shareholders who disagree, or agree but want other considerations voted on at the annual meeting, a way to have those issues included in the Proxy Statement.
hartlieb1: 10/25/2008
-------------- I was told it was too late. Was that another lie.
cos1000: 10/25/2008
-------------- You were told it was too late. Were they Lying? That's your response to this important question regarding shareholder rights. When was this? Any time after the merger and appeal process would have been a good time to generate shareholder support for these issues.
Michael why would you need to be told anything by the company regarding such an important opportunity? If you have been pursuing your rights as a equity holder, I would think that if you have legal expertise advising you, that you would not have missed this window of opportunity to legally and rightfully express your concerns about incompetent management for all of us shareholders.
hartlieb1: 10/26/2008
------------- Cos1000 I was told two months ago that the delay of the shareholder vote did not grant me more time to submit a shareholder resolution. Mr. Paul Blaylock was the one that told me this. All of these issues are complicated and I have tried to deal with them as they unfold.
My major concern is that until the Preliminary Proxy Statement was released, surprised and upset most shareholders with its requests, including me, most here had not heard of or from Michael Hartlieb. Michael has pursued legal remedy since before the merger, and that is his right and I applaud him for exercising it. My decision to not enjoin the Save Sirius shareholder group is not driven by any special knowledge I have that there has not been any wrong doing by Company management or Financial Institutions. My decision is base on the unconvincing case being made by Michael that he has exercised all methods available to voice his complaint and concern to all those that he needs to BEFORE taking this legal action. Opposing viewpoints to company's management are very much needed but I feel they need to also be constructive not just oppositional. Remove the B of D and Mel is the outcry, but what is the plan forward? This is not a well thought out shareholder uprising that will do any good to this struggling company IMHO.
Glad to hear..... we did say that these would not be easy times and that was before the Financial melt down, Auto sales coming to a screeching halt, and dilution of shares being the only apparent way to get the financing done. All in all the fact the company is still growing and trying to execute its consolidation plan while staying out of the BK or any other court is a feat in itself...... Hang in there.....
I agree with you as we both have talked about before. This is not new debt. It has always been in the numbers, with payments being in the liability side of the financial statements. I have already made the case that dilution by way of issuing shares to pay debt is already in the current stock price. Bankruptcy is all that is left to worry about and a company growing revenue, decreasing expenses, and paying all their bills does not got to court seeking protection. I partners up with its friends to give them the opportunity to pay off the debt with these cheap shares of common stock. When the buyers of the shares are known, people will be surprised to find that GS isn't getting what it wants. Morgn Stanley and UBS probably will be..... If they do dilute, I hope they take care of the debt sooner rather than later to remove from the discussion.