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With all of the attention recently on falling oil and gasoline prices, there hasn't been much attention on falling natural gas prices, which recently fell to levels not seen since early March of 2002, more than 6.5 years ago! Since the most recent peak in late June, natural gas prices have fallen by almost 80% (see chart above).

Bottom Line: Because of the significant decline in natural gas prices, we can expect lower electricity prices, and lower home heating costs this winter, and in fact it's already happening. From a USA Today story:

Here's a bright spot in an ailing economy: Electricity prices are falling in many areas.

The sharp drop in natural gas prices and, to a lesser extent, oil prices is slashing electric rates across big swaths of the USA. Utilities in the Northeast, Texas, Florida, the Mid-Atlantic and California rely heavily on natural-gas-fired power plants to generate electricity.

Natural gas prices have plummeted as the anemic economy has dampened consumption. Also, natural gas resources jumped this year as producers found ways to unearth fresh supplies embedded in shale rock.

Update: The prices in the chart are for "Natural Gas Wellhead Price West Texas (US$/MCF)" from Global Financial Data.

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This article has 14 comments:

  •  
    Mark,

    Yes, NG to the rescue! It increasingly appears we will have ample domestic supplies for electricity AND as a replacement for a significant percentage of gasoline as a transportation fuel.

    I believe we should proceed full speed ahead with WIND FARMS anyway, however. This new INFRASTRUCTURE will create jobs NOW, and owing to the looong lead times for nuclear reactors, will provide us much needed AFFORDABLE electricity in the future.
    2008 Nov 07 08:41 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Mark,

    In "Fleeced," Dick Morris claims the U.S. has actually DOUBLED its number of domestic manufacturing jobs over the past two decades. Is this so, do you know?
    2008 Nov 07 08:44 AM | Link | Reply
  •  

    Where are the manufacturing jobs? We are on our way to becoming a service economy. Look at England and you will see USA in 25 years.



    On Nov 07 08:44 AM paulk8756 wrote:

    > Mark,
    >
    > In "Fleeced," Dick Morris claims the U.S. has actually DOUBLED its
    > number of domestic manufacturing jobs over the past two decades.
    > Is this so, do you know?
    2008 Nov 07 08:53 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    the multiplier of mfg jobs is in china/mexico/vietnam/g... you name it.
    > jack
    2008 Nov 07 09:42 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If you think nat gas is cheap now, wait until Feb or March; there's a lot of wells that are coming on line over the next couple of months, and unless this winter is as cold as 1976-77, there's a real chance March NG will hit $3.50.
    2008 Nov 07 09:54 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    But then the flipside to the cheap NG in the spring is that all the producers will drastically cut back on their drilling programs (more than they already have) and by next winter prices will be going up strong.
    2008 Nov 07 09:56 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    NG is a good cyclical play, setting up nicely for next year. Its available, the infrastructure in place and demand ain't staying down for long.
    2008 Nov 07 12:34 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Yes NG was a bubble the same as oil. Dont buy commodities unless you are a day trader. Buy stocks.
    2008 Nov 07 04:40 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    NG futures trade at slightly less than $7, why?

    No matter how weak the economy gets, the decrease in demand will not decrease the costs of distribution. At some point, future production will require higher prices.

    Devon Energy's CEO was on CNBC a few weeks ago stating that low NG prices are causing him to reduce capex to such an extent that 2009's previously expected output would decrease 33%.

    Pipelines from Canada deliver NG 24/7 to the US. Without that input there would not be a surplus in storage. Off hand, the US was importing something like 15% of its NG needs before the Anemic economy began.

    When I read that Canada is stopping transmission into the US because we have an NG glut, then I will have to change my mind. Otherwise, IMHO, I have to diagree.
    2008 Nov 07 05:51 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    CLH, buy stocks.

    Name a few and the prices you would buy them at.

    I will treasure that input.
    2008 Nov 07 05:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    NG could stay down for awhile longer than 2009. However, Obama wants a green economy, so carbion credits could fill the bill as additional income for NG producers. and, water shortages will hit in 2010 for the Barnett shale. I think 2010 looks good if not better than 2009 for a NG comeback.

    I can't wait tio see the enviro jihadists go at each other in a civil war. One side on the water table issue, the other side on the NG carbon credit issue. This will be fun and somehow profitable.
    2008 Nov 07 07:50 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Looks like short CHK, long DVN is a good trade.
    2008 Nov 07 09:56 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    CHK has extensive hedges in place out 3 years, dont know if shorting is such a hot idea unless you believe their counterparties are going under.
    2008 Nov 07 10:38 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    CLH, so sad.
    2008 Nov 08 01:53 AM | Link | Reply