4 Signs for Further Caution by Satellite Radio Investors - Goldman 63 comments
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There were two reports issued by analysts Thursday in response to the guidance issued by Sirius XM Radio (SIRI). Analyst Kit Spring of Stifel noted that Sirius XM Radio’s guidance exceeds the Stifel model. This could be substantial in that there is at least some indication that Sirius XM is being conservative in their numbers.
Spring notes that a stable churn is important, and if the company can maintain stability in churn, even in tough economic times, that it may help give some validity to the business model. Stifel’s spring is maintaining his BUY rating on Sirius XM with a price target of $1.25.
The second anlayst that issued a report Thursday was Mark Wienkes of Goldman Sachs. Wienkes has been highly critical of Sirius XM.
Wienkes noted that SIRI now estimates 2008 year end subscribers at 19.1 mn versus 19.5 mn previously and that he feels that number is sharply below the Goldman estimate of 19.6. Wienkes also notes that Sirius XM ended Q2 with 18.6 mn subs, and thus, the new guidance implies only about 500,000 net adds in all of 2H08 vs. 900,000 as previously forecast, and about one-quarter of the 1.95 mn added in 2H07. Wienkes gives no indication as to whether he thinks Sirius XM is being conservative or aggressive in their guidance.
Rather than issue a new price target, Wienkes noted that the Goldman Sachs estimates and price target are under review.
The report stated, “The lowered subscriber outlook reflects both the weak auto market and a higher saturation of natural demand for the product, in our view. We see more signs signaling further caution is prudent for any investor in satellite radio. Specifically, (1) Sirius’ lowered outlook; (2) a pending change in retail distribution partners (Wednesday Directed Electronics (DEIX) announced the cessation of its Satellite Radio distribution deal as of 1/2009); (3) Time Warner Cable (TWC) noted it was seeing a pullback in its premium service offerings; and (4) higher churn at DirecTV (DTV)”
Position - Long SIRI
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This article has 63 comments:
stockmarketsundays.com...
Additionally, promotion is needed. How about getting onto college campuses across the nation and holding a live broadcast of a Howard show. Hand out tee shirts and sub discounts. I am sure Howard and his staff would have some fun "being on tour". Think of the contests, and wacky events college students are willing to participate in for nothing!!!
If there has been a retail slowdo due to consumers not knowing which sat rad to buy, won't the combo rad stimulate consumer activity?
I do want to go on record saying the product is amazing and just yesterday I renewed my three subscriptions for the year. The customer service was amazing; they credited my account on my work truck. The services have been down on that vehicle for about 6months, which I have already paid. Internal wiring has caused it to not work; not their fault, but they gave me credit anyway. What I am getting at is the company/product is on one end of the spectrum and the stock is on the other. I have never seen a disconnect of this proportion. My investment in Siri is down around 85%, so where do you go from here? Jan 1 I can deposit another 5000$ into my IRA and if the stock split is voted down, I will dollar cost average with some of the money. If I spend a 1000$ I can pick up 5000shares if the stock is .20c. To some this may sound crazy but I am fully aware this stock is a lottery ticket and nothing more. Vote no to a reverse split!
Big Ben…cautiously long Siri, forever long on the Steelers!
Kool-Aid drinkers...its a steal at these levels! lol
It can't go any lower! Bull shit .009/.008
Wall street as we know is dead! Bear Sterns/ Lehman Brothers were wall street! Get ready for unenjoyment to hit 12% and Obama will let people ride for years! Great time to be poor! The housing crisis might never be solved....and I run a Mortgage Servicing company...ie I'm the bad guy for all of the national banks. I show up with the sheriff and put your childrens toys on the street. Not a pretty job but someone has to do it. The amount of forclosures that come through my fax is almost scary.
Big Ben long Steelers
The key here is simple. AWARENESS. My neighbor was asking me if I have XM and ranting about the new AC/DC channel. I told him, no but I have Sirius and its the same company now. He has listened to me rave about this prodict and my optimism for the stock but he didnt relate it to his own experience.
SIRIUS MUST GET THE PRODUCT IN PEOPLES HANDS.
I AM LONG WITH 25,000 SHARES, S.P AVE. AT .33. DOES ANY NOT LIKE SIRIUS XM? THIS IS A STOCK 4 YEARS FROM NOW WILL BE WORTH A LOT MORE. THIS CAN BE OUR MICROSOFT OR DELL. THE MERGER AND THE BAD ECONOMY TOOK THE WIND OUT OF SIRI SAILS, BUT TO ALL THE LONGS, STAY IN. PANIC SELLING HELPS NO ONE. FUNNY HOW EVERYONE WANTED THIS STOCK AT 30 BUCKS, THE QUESTION IS DO YOU BELIEVE IN THE PRODUCT. I DO, I HAVE 3 SUBS MYSELF. REGULAR RADIO SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ANYONE HERE STILL LIKE AM/FM, DULL BORING CONTENT. THIS IS JUST MY OPINION. ONE MORE THING, WITH AS GAS PRICES DROPPING LIKE A LEAD WEIGHT, THE MONEY FOR SUBS AND RE-UPS WILL STAY IN PLAY. THE BIG THREE ARE GOING TO GET BAILED OUT. THIS IS GOOD NEWS NOT ONLY FOR THE COUNTRY, JOBS AND THE SIRIUS LONGS.
On Nov 07 10:06 AM shure46 wrote:
> JOBOCOP - Your post has credibility until you said " with gas prices
> dropping like a lead weight " ...........that lead weight is going
> to turn into a rocket by the end of March '09 ...............150
> - 200 dollars a barrel for oil by July ............Oil and gas always
> drop in winter , then skyrocket to new highs in summer ......so remove
> that from the equation , because cheaper gas is a very temporary
> thing , not even worth including in your post .......also "What is
> everyone's problem" ?????? Well try this on for size ..........Siri
> has gone from 60 bucks to 20 cents .........I'd say that's a problem
> , and you might just feel the same way if your 33 cent average falls
> to a nickel ................and that is a damn good possibility ........so
> don't ask the rest of us " What is your problem " ???? You may just
> find out , first hand , in about 6 months ................Then again
> , you might make some money , and THAT is what we are ALL hoping
> for ...........good product , and a company up to their ass in debt
> because they have been spending like there's no tomorrow for years
> now
GOLDMAN SLACH DOWN 63% THIS YEAR
IM LOVING IT
MR WIENKES THIS HOLIDAY WE WISH YOU .........................
On Nov 07 09:00 AM User 271917 wrote:
> Everybody just vot no to reverse split believe me you will be glad
> you did.
G.S SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...
the company may be worth a lot more, but the common stock that is traded today will be just about worthless... the company and the stock you own are not one and the same. mass dilution is the only way for SIRI...
at box office is $8 bil. This fledgling Sat Rad is almost 35% of all film business for a year and it's in the red. $2.7 bil is a lot of money compared to all film revenues, so someone is screwing with the books so it continues
to lose money and keep the stock price down. It can only mean to go BK,
go private or dilute to nothing. We'll all lose evrything by Jan. if we don't
get the current bosses out of there.
One other thing that is going to happen. Obama is going to push for The Fairness doctrine which will eliminate conservative radio as we know it!!
What do you think the likes of Rush, Hannity and Colmes, fox news are going to do.
They are going to come over to Satrad!! This opens up a potential for many more subscribers!! People that can listen to this type of radio for free are now going to pay for it.
Satrad has not even scratched the surface on its potential. Give this company some time
Huh? Sorry you came in all gargled and stupid on that one. I could have sworn you bashed the company and people who want to commit more capital in your first parapraph, then you talk about putting 5k more in on a "lottery ticket".
On Nov 07 07:54 AM Big Ben wrote:
> Anyone buying shares of Siri should have their head examined. I read
> all of the threads and comments on multiple websites and believe
> it or not there are people saying they won’t buy until the stock
> goes under .21! They do not want to buy in the .34-.22 range but
> around .21 its time to commit capital. Sheeple, we have been had!
> This stock blows! I can list multiple reasons why Mel should take
> the company into bankruptcy. They could emerge with new deals, wipe
> out the common (that includes my 7770 shares), and start their way
> to profitability much sooner. The Kool-Aid drinkers are out of control
> on this one! The stock has been on a free fall forever now, how could
> anyone say they are buying shares with a reverse split on the table?
> 50-1….you have to be kidding! Who gives a shit if we get de-listed?
> A reverse split of that magnitude signals the end of times.
>
> I do want to go on record saying the product is amazing and just
> yesterday I renewed my three subscriptions for the year. The customer
> service was amazing; they credited my account on my work truck. The
> services have been down on that vehicle for about 6months, which
> I have already paid. Internal wiring has caused it to not work; not
> their fault, but they gave me credit anyway. What I am getting at
> is the company/product is on one end of the spectrum and the stock
> is on the other. I have never seen a disconnect of this proportion.
> My investment in Siri is down around 85%, so where do you go from
> here? Jan 1 I can deposit another 5000$ into my IRA and if the stock
> split is voted down, I will dollar cost average with some of the
> money. If I spend a 1000$ I can pick up 5000shares if the stock is
> .20c. To some this may sound crazy but I am fully aware this stock
> is a lottery ticket and nothing more. Vote no to a reverse split!
>
>
> Big Ben…cautiously long Siri, forever long on the Steelers!
JOBOCOP --- yes at this price , risk is much less than a year ago ........for those of you jumping in now .....best o' luck ........you should do well in the not too distant future ..............OR , you might get diluted into oblivion , and be right here with the rest of us pissed off Siri investors !!!!!!!
Mark Ballard
markbmark 2008
I was in phone contact with Sirius, Patrick Reilly Today; November 6, 2008 who retuned my call for inquiry as to his claim the Michael Hartleib Derivative Case was dismissed. Reilly informed me the case had been dismissed. However, I had to push him hard before he admitted the case was given leave to re-file and that action is pending. Reilly was very misleading in his press release and his response to me. Clearly, Sirius first response has been to cover up the deception with more deception.
After speaking with Reilly, my opinion is the plan for Sirius is to dilute, Rev-Split, and then short their own stock and use the stolen money to buy the company on the cheap and go private or sell. I have spoken to a lot of crooks and wheeler-dealers and Reilly is a spin mastering crook. Sirius is up to no good!
I also called Michael Hartleib today for the first time. After weeks of email I was pleased to finally talk to the "Crazy Uncle" as some have nick named him. After 20 min phone conversation I was spinning in a world full of deception previously unknown to me. People, this guy , Michael Hartleib could put Mel and Company in jail for a very long time.
If Michael Hartleib can get this case into a court and perform just a little discovery, truly life will change for Mel. Michael Hartleib has outstanding hard and factual evidence to show:
1. FCC collusion to dominate SAT bandwidth,
2. Hard facts never released about the Merger that show Mel knew XM would have filed chapter 7 within a few months and the FCC License requirement would have given XM to Sirius at a substantial discount.
3. Hard facts about the $600 million last min financing is the point that the deal should have been stopped to prevent stock holder and company loses. On this issue alone, Michael has a money trail of profiteering and RICO that will put Mel in Jail for years.
4. Hard and court proven evidence that Sirius attempted to evade liability for all of the above by bringing in a professional plaintiff and law firm to bring a class action lawsuit against Sirius (Sued themselves) and agree in an iron clad protection settlement that prevented additional stockholders from suing.
In Mike's spare time, he has traced two trading companies that have been used for massive Naked Short Trading Sirius via offshore and some US holding companies. The investigation continues to point back to Sirius and collusion with GS in a washed money trail. A little discover from a court suit will be interesting indeed.
The true Consumer and Stock Holder Advocate in Sirius is (in my opinion) Mike Hartleib. I owned a large east coast Internet service and was involved and prevailed in a TELCO suit that did not have half the smoke in the gun used by Sirius. Look out Mel, because Mike Hartleib is the mad dog that has a big bite and he will never let go…
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
Contact:
Michael Hartleib
(949) 795-0580
savesirius@gmail.com
clueless
1) they are not making money
2) "refi the debt".... possible, but only at 15-20%... or mass dilution.
3) if any stock with the SIRI ticker attached goes "off to the races", it will not be the one that is known as common today...
I feel sorry for you. you sit there and b!tch about your investment in a spec stock.
$13.00 per subscription, 20 mil subscribers and you are saying they aren't making money. Get a clue. Every company you look at has debt that needs to be refinanced.
If the credit market didn't dry up they would have had the refinancing done by now. In case you forgot, they have till Feb. 09 to get it done. All of you are acting like they have to do this right now.
Hind sight is 20/20. Don't sit here and say your are smarter then people that have run huge corporations, and quite well I might add!!
Give Mel a chance. He is waiting to see if the markets get better to have a chance at refi'ing on reasonable terms.
As far as the reverse split, this is a last resort measure. He doesn't want to do a reverse split anymore than we do but you can't put all your eggs in one basket. You have to have a plan B on anything you do in life and in running a company.
All of you complaining day after day, posting the same posts after every article need to seriously get a life.
If you can't take it sell your stock and get off the boards, otherwise suck it the f up!!!
Cygnus...read carefully my friend. I am bashing the stock in the first paragraph and I would only commit more cash if the reverse split is voted down. Then I never said I would commit the entire 5k, only 20%...1k. The remaining 4k needs to go into something extremely safe. I have one spec play and it is siri. Being down 85% on 7770 shares what is the risk on purchasing an additional 5000 shares...1000 clams. I have already been taken to the wood shed for about 14000k whats another grand. One thing missing from this discussion is age and time to retirement. I'm 31 and starting to him a groove on the income side, so I have sometime to wait for the smoke to clear.
"Look eye Danielson" "Look eye"
Mel and others at Sirius have fully and totally refused to investigate!
MarKbMarK
You see it happening! Have you traced the source? Because you can trace each trade with L2-L1 information and contacting the Exchange. Then. what ever response you get POST IT AND POST THE COMPLAINT LINK FOR THE SEC. File a complaint and post it with a request for everyone to make a SEC complaint.
Who is responsible to police this manipulation? The stock holders and the company are the first stop in policing the system. If we don’t call the police when the house gets robbed no-one else will call for us.
WHY DOES SIRIUS REFUSE TO INVESTIGATE AND DEFEND IT’s STOCK?
Mike H. personally wrote a letter to Mel back in May 07, Mike asked Sirius to investigate.
Letter to Mel, Sirius, May 07 Mike said,
“ I have obtained information through the Freedom of Information Act issued by the S.E.C. and other sources, that strongly suggests manipulation in Sirius shares and violations of Federal Securities Law. In speaking with Investor Relations, I have been told it is not the Company’s responsibility to monitor the trading of the Company shares but instead, is the responsibility of the regulators. I disagree and believe the Company has a fiduciary responsibility to protect the interest of its shareholders. I cite the pending Overstock.com, Inc. et al v Morgan Stanley & Co, Incorporated et al litigation filed on behalf of Overstock and its shareholders (Superior Court of the State of California – Case #CGC-07-460147). I believe this case sets a precedent for companies such as Overstock to protect their shareholders and preserve the integrity of their shares. Overstock and its shareholders have seen nearly a forty percent increase in share price since the Complaint was filed. “
Any question?
Mel and others at Sirius have fully and totally refused to defend the Stock Holder and the Stock Price by investigating the obvious SP manipulation of Sirius. Mel has continuously refused to request a SEC investigation.
All more reason to believe Mel is in the dirty work and Sirius is up to no good.
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
Contact:
Michael Hartleib
(949) 795-0580
savesirius@gmail.com
By the way, I am not a part of the Save Sirius group or any lawsuit filed. I do not now, or in the future intend to become a part of this group as a shareholder or otherwise. It is my opinion that this group consists of dissatisfied shareholders with no discernible goal, or plan to move forward, even if it had a goal. Filing this suit now and not utilizing rights in possession under SEC Rule 14a-8, Proposals of Security Holders first, to file objections as shareholders in advance of the annual meeting shows me that this group led by M. Hartlieb is a ship without a rudder. I have communicated through post to Michael as hartlieb1 on SiriusBuzz.com threads, during a period when Tyler Savery dedicated 1/2 Hr Special Edition Web interview and call in with Michael. After listening to the show and doing a little research on GOOGLE regarding Proxy Statements and Shareholder rights, I posted and received the following responses from hartlieb1.
cos1000: 10/25/2008
--------- Here is a question. Why hasn't Michael submitted "Proposals Of Security Holders" under rule 14a-8 to be included in the Preliminary Proxy Statement submitted by the company under rule 14a-6??? I am not a lawyer, but if you or I were involved in ongoing litigation with the company during the merger, during the merger appeal period, and after, wouldn't you follow Proxy Statement Rules and assure that your concerns could be included in a timely filing to the company so that all shareholders would have access to the information when the company files its Proxy Statement.
Rule 14a-8 provides shareholders who disagree, or agree but want other considerations voted on at the annual meeting, a way to have those issues included in the Proxy Statement.
hartlieb1: 10/25/2008
-------------- I was told it was too late. Was that another lie.
cos1000: 10/25/2008
-------------- You were told it was too late. Were they Lying? That's your response to this important question regarding shareholder rights. When was this? Any time after the merger and appeal process would have been a good time to generate shareholder support for these issues.
Michael why would you need to be told anything by the company regarding such an important opportunity? If you have been pursuing your rights as a equity holder, I would think that if you have legal expertise advising you, that you would not have missed this window of opportunity to legally and rightfully express your concerns about incompetent management for all of us shareholders.
hartlieb1: 10/26/2008
------------- Cos1000 I was told two months ago that the delay of the shareholder vote did not grant me more time to submit a shareholder resolution. Mr. Paul Blaylock was the one that told me this. All of these issues are complicated and I have tried to deal with them as they unfold.
My major concern is that until the Preliminary Proxy Statement was released, surprised and upset most shareholders with its requests, including me, most here had not heard of or from Michael Hartlieb. Michael has pursued legal remedy since before the merger, and that is his right and I applaud him for exercising it. My decision to not enjoin the Save Sirius shareholder group is not driven by any special knowledge I have that there has not been any wrong doing by Company management or Financial Institutions. My decision is base on the unconvincing case being made by Michael that he has exercised all methods available to voice his complaint and concern to all those that he needs to BEFORE taking this legal action. Opposing viewpoints to company's management are very much needed but I feel they need to also be constructive not just oppositional. Remove the B of D and Mel is the outcry, but what is the plan forward? This is not a well thought out shareholder uprising that will do any good to this struggling company IMHO.
Who would sue themselves? Someone wanting protection in a settlement agreement.
The court judge comment on "Sirius suing itself" to avoid more stock holder recourse could be used today by the Justice Department to arrest Mel and Company for racketeering RECO. The Fed's could investigate this at any time and Sirius has no defense. They were caught red handed.
Mike H. does not request this because it would cause way to much harm to the company stock and share holders. Mike H is only taking action to sue management and have all compensation given to the company (Derivatives Suit). Less the blood sucker fees.
All stock holders must demand new management now to save our investment.
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
It's getting a little crazy round here with all the articles and save siri...
I posted on the Fly on the wall article after the close...
>>I started my buy-in down here. Picked up a few 10K shares before the close @ .262. I like to be in over weekends just in case, but I'll probably take this buy through earnings also--it's low enough to be in any new range that might develop. I gotta believe a lot of the negativity about the upcoming numbers has to be baked in here. We're no longer at 1.00 or .70 where the stock will still fall .20 over a few days. Looking at the action last few days, MM's have been holding steady, tight ranges, not taking it down--very manipulative. Something has to be up. If they snap it down on numbers release, it's sure to bounce quickly on auto cover programs. I think shorts are starting to see the end of their reign. After the numbers release, this stock could start a run higher like we haven't seen in a while. IMHO... <<
looks like we're thinking alike on this. I also felt this was a good first entry point...then I'm ready for after the release. Somehow I don't think the actual release isn't going to be as negative as thought. We'll see but I'm starting to think the down pressure on this stock is close to lifting. If Mel announces some financing soon, this thing is going to fly. LIBOR 3mo is down to 2.29. I don't think it's going to come down a whole lot more. Mel can now get 8%.
There was a DJ Newswires story that has a particular ring to it. I think now that they can, I think the company knows they've got to refi that Fob '09, for the shareholders. We all thought he would do that closer to post buyout, but then the rates jacked. If he comes through now, lifts the stock, no harm done, except to our psyches...lol
>> DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI) said it is in talks with several lenders about revamping its financing.
The disclosure comes amid Wall Street worries about a slowdown in satellite-radio growth and the company's looming debt payments.
Chief Executive Mel Karmazin's focus is on shoring up investor confidence by refinancing $300 million in convertible bonds that come due in February, replacing them with bank debt. In early September, he told investors that he had already begun a series of meetings with banks....
Dow Jones Newswires
11-06-08 0837ET
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.<<
I would like to say first that I am not an enemy of Sirius. I am a long share holder. I am a deep long about to lose the farm and my independence. While you will recover, I will be locked into a nursing home destitute.
I don’t understand your motivation to be combative against Mike H or anyone trying to save Sirius from what we believe is harmful management. You say you have no interest in Sirius or any group. You say you are day trading only and not investing in Sirius. What you say does not add up to your combative resistance to efforts made to unite stock holders and save Sirius.
COS SAID, “Filing this suit now and not utilizing rights in possession under SEC Rule 14a-8, Proposals of Security Holders first, to file objections as shareholders in advance of the annual meeting shows me that this group led by M. Hartlieb is a ship without a rudder.”
You need to understand that this is a growing problem. It started as investors making recommendations and has expanded to obvious collusion and deception. The closer we look at Sirius the more evil we exposed.
We are stock holders and we are not lawyers. As you clearly point out the time has come for real legal direction. But the share holders must first be united. I am here for that and more…
I wish I never heard of Sirius.
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
And as I have posted previously, I agree with your view regarding the suit. Even as one who has lost many thousands on my investment, I do not agree with the timing nor the overall strategy of the suit at this time. IMO, there was maximum level of due diligence and savvy required before purchasing this stock (of which is not always needed when buying into a variety of companies) but that some including myself, did not perform. That's not a crime, just unfortunate. This one was like walking across a mine field.
Sorry about the cut and paste from the prior article.... it will be my last time doing that.... just got annoyed with the BS lawsuit at this time its very distracting....
Call me crazy but I also think the MM's in charge are not here to take it down, but to blow a little air in the life raft.... Yesterday at close there was a large order executed that took the stock from .28 to .26, after watching price movement today, I put in a 7500 sh order at limit .26 today to see if they would close out again with the same thing. Sure enough right before the close my order and theirs went through. This looks like an important action to keep an eye on... their taking the capital out at the end of the day that's being used to give buoyancy to the stock during the day, IMHO. Monday will be interesting and having the call after close is making more sense now.... all the action will be at the open on Tuesday morning... not enough weight in after hour trading to give an accurate read on price.
btw...I have no issue with you or those trying a particular course of action. I do think it is ill-timed if nothing else. I also think, after re-reading all the prospectus supplements, that suit is going to have a tough time in any court. I have said here before that this company is safe-harbored to the hilt and practically any issue I can think of related to the stock, was caveated by the company in writing. I just hope Mike H. has read all those documents. But again this is my (one man's) opinion and I have no issue with you or any other here making your attempt...
But, I would rather hit my investment when it is already down and while we have a NASDq waivor on the 1.00 share price. If we wait, we could bring down a good SP. Also I see danger in letting this managment continue.
IMHO
You wrote:
----You need to understand that this is a growing problem. It started as investors making recommendations and has expanded to obvious collusion and deception. The closer we look at Sirius the more evil we exposed.
My Response:
Present your evidence to the proper authorities and move on.... As you have said, you are not lawyers.... your shareholders, so what are you doing? Discovering Evil? You berate me for day trading this stock while I try to get my investment back. The only one who was a fool in my investment was ME.... Now I am working my arss off to get over 100K back that I lost.... let me repeat, I LOST not Mel no Michael and certainly NOT YOU. I Lost It. Get It...... If Day Trading is what it takes for this LONG to get his money back, then that is what I will do. Don't try and tell me how the lawsuit started. I have been involved in this stock since 2002-2003: Invested, LONG, and now, as you, I need to take the lessons learned and apply them to my next investment, which just happens to be, guess what? Sirius. So while your playing catch up on all the evil in the company, and about to lose the farm, don't criticize me for trying to keep the Banker from taking mine..... thank you. Now I AM done with this BS.
Good catch, I saw pretty much the same thing and at this price, it's a decent starting entry. Looking at a 10 day chart, I really think there are some signs of bottoming--this sequence looks a little different to me. I also feel like, as in the market baking in todays bad numbers in the previous two days, then a bounce on the actual release, I think we could be looking at the same thing here. They are now down .18 from the 10.27 .44 high. That's a significant drop. I am questioning whether or not this stock will have enough downside pressure left. That's also partly why I bought in today. If they do bounce in a meaningful way any time before the 52wk low @ .215, that will be meaningful to me...hey it was just @ .57 less than 4 weeks ago. If Mel takes that Feb '09 out, look out. I think I'm in down here to stay for a little bit. The bad ride could soon be finally coming to a close and no reason to miss a key announcement for a few pennies...
Hope you're staying warm out there???
No problem and I agree on your assessment of the SP and where we've been. I am also getting concerned about my trying to be too greedy on the downside and as you say a couple of pennies won't matter if we are right. I am only concerned with two numbers on the call: Churn and Subscriber Growth. If churn is over 2.0 then Subscriber Growth could be close to net negative. Anything under 150K Subscriber adds, and even that will be seen as negative.... although not in a sustainable way. On a general note, we have to watch carefully the Auto Industry in general. A bankruptcy in any of the automakers now, as opposed to a year ago, would be devastating to subscriber growth. As 163888 has pointed out, normal churn of 1.7 % results in a subscriber loss of 3.89M on 19.1M that has to be overcome before there are any Net Adds. In the current market, without a government bail out of some kind, Chrysler and GM will be in Bankruptcy protection, not shut down, but faced with heavy regulation and an eventual shut down of at least Chrysler.
As I am betting Sirius will survive, I am also betting that the new and the present administration, will not let the Auto Industry fail. The failure would hit the heart of the middle class at the worst time possible. Lets see if the new President lives up to his promise to "Grow the Middle Class" and grow the economy from the Bottom Up. A failure to bail out the auto industry will be a disaster for Sirius as well. in that spirit of optimism I also took a position in GM right after their conference call when trading resumed. I guess you could say: No I am Not Diversified.
Dominic, thanks for your opinion.
Vote no Rev Splt
Who would sue themselves? Someone wanting protection in a settlement agreement.
The court judge comment on "Sirius suing itself" to avoid more stock holder recourse could be used today by the Justice Department to arrest Mel and Company for racketeering RECO. The Fed's could investigate this at any time and Sirius has no defense. They were caught red handed.
Mike H. does not request this because it would cause way to much harm to the company stock and share holders. Mike H is only taking action to sue management and have all compensation given to the company (Derivatives Suit). Less the blood sucker fees.
All stock holders must demand new management now to save our investment.
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
In the same spirit of optimism, there has got to be some good news coming for this company. Have you ever seen such overwhelming negativity in another company? And now coincidently the entire auto industry--which is the company's life blood? I think those metrics you mentioned will be close enough to the mark as to not cause huge concern if a little short of target. I think what is really going to help this report is the forward looking B of B. As you have said that won't be in these numbers proper but the market these days heavily emphasizes the future, and if they've had heavy cross over w/ B of B @ $5 a pop, that could be a nice carrot for now. I think the auto bailout will happen. They can't not do it. Esp. if for no other reason, part of what created this situation was $150 oil this summer. It was a good thing to accelerate the paradigm shift, but it was also more like a deus ex machina to the industry. Yes, the legacy pensions are killing these companies but for now the gov. should help bridge the gap here to give time to recover both from the high oil and now the direct ramifications of the financial melt on consumers. The gov. should not turn their backs but create incentives for infrastructure change. Then if no changes are made and the companies continue to burn, next year they will have to consolidate probably under BK. But not now. And especially, teh economy is waaaay too fragilel to let something that major just happen. If you just let all that unwind, you'll have complete chaos IMO.
When this is approved SIRI will get a pop. I think a bank refi is more than probable now that LIBOR is way down. They know they owe shareholders at least something at this point. I think that will be that something...and a nice pop there. I just think SIRI's downside is exhausted..we're here at the bottom! We've been hammered, we know why, but now it's time for change. Nothing goes on forever good or bad. Boy have we seen the bad! In thinking about the 12/18 meeting, I think the SP will be around .95. IMO, there is no way they will conduct a major shareholder meeting, of a company this size, with a SP of .30 (or lower). I just can't see it (considering all we know about why it is .30). If so, I will be shocked beyond belief. Plus ostensibly they still want those items in the proxy approved...and it's certainly not in their interest to be addressing an angry mob of hostile shareholders (esp. the institutional holders). No, I think there is plenty of incentive to have this SP back up at least around a buck for that event. I'm almost starting to wonder if they will bag the extra shares altogether and just go for the reverse. That was always on the table for next year anyway. That's of course IF they do a refi now.
I also thought it was interesting that Weinkes witheld his price target. Did you catch that? Why does something tell me after this Q release he is going to up to .75? Citing good news like B of B as a reason for optimism? Steifel maintained at 1.25. I think that is where this is all headed. A buck to maybe 1.25 on the high end by meeting time.
Oh and like your (GM) I was thinking about (F) right here. On Fast Money I heard there is a lot of Call action at $5. And as I posted on the other article, these stocks are being propped up. If SIRI would have released Ford's numbers today, they would be 1.00 instead of 2.00. Instead Ford was up a few pennies. Huh? It just all depends if they want to take you out or not. By all rights, GM should be 2.00 not 4.50 right now. But they're getting a break. IMHO...
Have a good weekend...
Great post and the Latin is a nice touch and well placed..... I agree the bank financing would be great news but am less optimistic that they will be able to secure financing that "clean" at this time, especially given their dependence on an ailing auto industry. At one time I had hoped that the OEMs might be a source of the bank / partner financing to clear the debt, but now that is less likely. We shall see.... have a good weekend yourself.
People want to invest in stocks they want to make money. Can you blame them for being afraid? We are constantly misled and lied to by corporate monsters, by financial analyst and others tied to this skewed industry.
Dylan talks about transparency and the lack there of. I say there is no transparency until people get caught. These people are constantly lying and hiding stuff on balance sheet off balance sheet. Where is the protection for shareholders? You’re told to invest in stocks and that when you do you are owning a piece of the company, yet you really have no rights. When the poop hits the fan you find out that the rats have already jumped ship, or they have enriched them selves even more over the company destruction and damage that they caused.
In the end it is always the shareholders that get hurt. They are always the ones left flapping in the wind, via reverse splits, dilution, or bankruptcy. The shareholder is the absolute last person in line to receive anything except a zero in there bank account. In this case imparticular I am referring to siri-xm they are going to have a shareholder meeting Dec. 08. and they want to effect as much as a 1-50 reverse split and or authorize 8billion more share. Mel Karm. I ask where is the responsibility to shareholders.
Where is the responsibility to do the right thing, make the right business decisions, and pursue all alternatives available to working out any problems that a company might have. Instead corporate finds the most profitable and easy alternative is in most cases to just wipe out shareholders make them pay the price.
We have been trying to get Sirius shareholders to rally together to vote this proxy rev-split thing down. It would be nice to get some kind of media exposure. I can’t believe no one is talking about this madness on cnbc. Mel publicly states everything is ok and the company has no need to sell any assets. They could if they needed to. Why do that when we can just unconscionably reduce our shareholders. Why should they care they will get theirs and then some regardless.
Sincerely The Bagholder
Amen … Vote no Rev Split
I did. It was and the consensious was I should have invested in beer and turned the cans in for scrap with a greater return and a better time
Regretfully I have to agree
So what should Mel do? (1) experiment with ads or sponsors for certain channels. It's already there with some/all of the talk and news channels. Expand that revenue line. (2) more promotion with "happy subscriber" stories. No one I know that has it dislikes it. (3) work with the car companies to lengthen the initial subscription time, or offer steeply discounted extensions at the time of purchase. Hell, even pay the dealer a commission for full-price subscription extensions, and figure out how to allow the buyer to roll the cost into their financing. (4) renegotiate deals with "stars" like Howard, or make better use of this high-priced talent. I struggle to see where the cost outweighs the benefit. (5) Heavier promotion of their sports packages, like NFL and NCAA F & BB. When I'm driving on Saturdays and Sundays, I always have a game on ... even if it's not my home team. (6) Lower subscription fees. Unless they have costs that vary with subscriber counts, lower fees = more subscriptions, Maybe some large # of subs that cancel after their new-car free-trial run out, would actually stay on. Econ 101 - efficient frontier. (7) exchange debt for equity. Sure the existing shareholders (including me) would be diluted - but the company would avoid bankruptcy, and reduce heavy debt expense.
To the " number crunchers " --- What about the estimated .09 loss per share , which is 2 cents worse than last quarter ????? I have read nothing on that , and THAT happens to be the most important number of ALL .......not to mention , it was Lord Wenkies that came up with that estimate ............subs , synergies , churn , debt re-fi , are all fine and dandy , but if earnings go from a 7 cent loss , to a 9 cent loss ???? ..... I think a wino suffering delerium tremons could see that's not good
MAYBE , I am mistaken , but I seem to remember 7 cent loss last quarter , and Weinke estimating 9 cent loss this quarter ..........Pardon me if I am wrong on that
time to go back to your padded cell now, mongo.
On Nov 07 08:54 AM scamcity wrote:
> Own stock , bought a new truck(first one and american!) only got
> 90 days included XM, although I like the radio as we lack any country
> stations of any good , the renew is OVERPRICED $ 142.45 a year all
> this for 2 or 3 stations I would listen to. I believe this is on
> purpose to kill the company and take over the remains . At least
> I voted against merger and saw there should be a lawsuit against
> the looters ceo Martha, Howard and the rest of the SCAMMERS , A
> legitimate business model would not give Millions to goofballs, scum
> and FELONS (for scamming) and would price legitimately a $60.00 /yr
> subscription in which everyone would buy it , I am sure they know
> this but the failure to act is to line thier pockets once they scam
> the stockholders monies .
On Nov 07 11:20 PM markbmark wrote:
> Hear others express shame over Sirius actions
>
> People want to invest in stocks they want to make money. Can you
> blame them for being afraid? We are constantly misled and lied to
> by corporate monsters, by financial analyst and others tied to this
> skewed industry.
>
> Dylan talks about transparency and the lack there of. I say there
> is no transparency until people get caught. These people are constantly
> lying and hiding stuff on balance sheet off balance sheet. Where
> is the protection for shareholders? You’re told to invest in stocks
> and that when you do you are owning a piece of the company, yet you
> really have no rights. When the poop hits the fan you find out that
> the rats have already jumped ship, or they have enriched them selves
> even more over the company destruction and damage that they caused.
>
>
> In the end it is always the shareholders that get hurt. They are
> always the ones left flapping in the wind, via reverse splits, dilution,
> or bankruptcy. The shareholder is the absolute last person in line
> to receive anything except a zero in there bank account. In this
> case imparticular I am referring to siri-xm they are going to have
> a shareholder meeting Dec. 08. and they want to effect as much as
> a 1-50 reverse split and or authorize 8billion more share. Mel Karm.
> I ask where is the responsibility to shareholders.
>
> Where is the responsibility to do the right thing, make the right
> business decisions, and pursue all alternatives available to working
> out any problems that a company might have. Instead corporate finds
> the most profitable and easy alternative is in most cases to just
> wipe out shareholders make them pay the price.
>
> We have been trying to get Sirius shareholders to rally together
> to vote this proxy rev-split thing down. It would be nice to get
> some kind of media exposure. I can’t believe no one is talking about
> this madness on cnbc. Mel publicly states everything is ok and the
> company has no need to sell any assets. They could if they needed
> to. Why do that when we can just unconscionably reduce our shareholders.
> Why should they care they will get theirs and then some regardless.
>
>
> Sincerely The Bagholder
>
> Amen … Vote no Rev Split
Sounds like your in the beginning of nothing but White.... Where I am in New England we don't see that, and even then on a smaller scale, until the end of Dec., Jan....... I live by a lake that consists of three large "ponds". When they freeze, Bart, my dog and I, hike on the lake like it was a Siberian desert.... Sounds bleak but it gets us out on a frosty day in Winter.... Hang in there and keep the block heater plugged in...... as you know make sure the heater is still getting power...
Tomorrow is a day to stay close to your trading platform on this stock......, if it dives, jump in, and if it pops you should wait a couple of days... and get in then (the pop will be nervous excitement, Old Bull, Young Bull kind of thing. Ah, I guess that will have to wait for another day). Anything down in SP here and I am getting back in and working to finish my new long position..... for the next couple of weeks..... Its all relative from here.
Who would sue themselves? Someone wanting protection in a settlement agreement.
The court judge comment on "Sirius suing itself" to avoid more stock holder recourse could be used today by the Justice Department to arrest Mel and Company for racketeering RECO. The Fed's could investigate this at any time and Sirius has no defense. They were caught red handed.
Mike H. does not request this because it would cause way to much harm to the company stock and share holders. Mike H is only taking action to sue management and have all compensation given to the company (Derivatives Suit). Less the blood sucker fees.
All stock holders must demand new management now to save our investment.
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
Q3 CALL TODAY! 1974 Nixon yammered “ I am not a crook “! What will Mel have to say to us at 4:30pm today? I can hardly wait for the double talk and he-haw of old blather.
What ever Mel has to say today, it will not keep his loyal stock holders away from the December 18, Sirius love fest. Mel, we have something for you and it is not love…
Vote no rev-split