Earnings Preview: Sirius XM Radio 112 comments
-
Font Size:
-
Print
- TweetThis
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) is expected to report Q3 earnings after market close Monday Nov. 10, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 pm ET.
Guidance
Analysts are looking for a loss of (9c) on revenue of $587.41M. The consensus range is (13c) to (7c) for EPS, and revenue of $509.61M to $618.9M, according to First Call. On November 6, the company said that current economic conditions, particularly the dramatic and recent slow down in auto sales, have negatively impacted subscriber growth for 2008 and 2009. The company expects to end 2008 with 19.1M subscribers and end 2009 with 20.6M subscribers. The company, which forecast FY09 revenue $2.7B vs. First Call consensus of $2.01B, said it remains confident in its revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2008.
Analyst VIews
Barrington Research analyst James Goss says that the biggest issue weighing on the stock is the threat of refinancing debt in "hostile market conditions". While the company appears "confident," Goss says "it's not entirely under their control". The company, facing $1.1B in loan repayments in 2009, is looking to replace 2.5% convertible notes due next year.
Aside from the troubled auto industry, Sirius has also been hit hard by competition from other media and a slowdown in consumer discretionary spending. Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen believes between the auto market and the credit market, the company has real challenges ahead, but if the company is successful in renegotiating its debt and if auto sales should turn around, she and other analysts could be more optimistic on the stock.
Related Articles
|
-
The Seeking Alpha 100
See allThe top 100 stock
market authors
selected for publication
Seeking Alpha 100 » -
Fastest Climbers
Authors with the largestSee all
increase in followers
in the last 7 days
Fastest Climbers » -
Top Commenters
Top commenters,See all
as ranked by their peers
Top Commenters » -
Top Instabloggers
The 100 most active
Instabloggers.-
1
David Fry
-
2
TraderMark
-
3
Don Dion
-
4
Cliff Wachtel
-
5
Mike Havrilla
Top Instabloggers » -
1
-
Top StockTalkers
TopSee all
StockTalkers.
Top StockTalkers »
This article has 112 comments:
of total film box office of $8 bil for the year. The question is how they
manage the $2.7 bil. That's a lot of money. Compared to the whole
film industry this fledgling SatRad has big income. So how is it they
are always in the red. Is it mis management or corruption? Are they
manipulating the revenue, cooking the books to drive the stock price
down for BK ,privitization or dilution for a takeover? We can site all
the problems with the economy, auto sales and credit markets, but it
still comes down to how they handle the $2.7 bil. revenue. If the
operating expenses are wasted, the talent fee's to high, bosses salaries,
etc. etc., the problem is someone is getting the revenue and books need
to be looked at for corruption, theft and mismanagement.
Mark Ballard
markbmark 2008
I was in phone contact with Sirius, Patrick Reilly Today; November 6, 2008 who retuned my call for inquiry as to his claim the Michael Hartleib Derivative Case was dismissed. Reilly informed me the case had been dismissed. However, I had to push him hard before he admitted the case was given leave to re-file and that action is pending. Reilly was very misleading in his press release and his response to me. Clearly, Sirius first response has been to cover up the deception with more deception.
After speaking with Reilly, my opinion is the plan for Sirius is to dilute, Rev-Split, and then short their own stock and use the stolen money to buy the company on the cheap and go private or sell. I have spoken to a lot of crooks and wheeler-dealers and Reilly is a spin mastering crook. Sirius is up to no good!
I also called Michael Hartleib today for the first time. After weeks of email I was pleased to finally talk to the "Crazy Uncle" as some have nick named him. After 20 min phone conversation I was spinning in a world full of deception previously unknown to me. People, this guy , Michael Hartleib could put Mel and Company in jail for a very long time.
If Michael Hartleib can get this case into a court and perform just a little discovery, truly life will change for Mel. Michael Hartleib has outstanding hard and factual evidence to show:
1. FCC collusion to dominate SAT bandwidth,
2. Hard facts never released about the Merger that show Mel knew XM would have filed chapter 7 within a few months and the FCC License requirement would have given XM to Sirius at a substantial discount.
3. Hard facts about the $600 million last min financing is the point that the deal should have been stopped to prevent stock holder and company loses. On this issue alone, Michael has a money trail of profiteering and RICO that will put Mel in Jail for years.
4. Hard and court proven evidence that Sirius attempted to evade liability for all of the above by bringing in a professional plaintiff and law firm to bring a class action lawsuit against Sirius (Sued themselves) and agree in an iron clad protection settlement that prevented additional stockholders from suing.
In Mike's spare time, he has traced two trading companies that have been used for massive Naked Short Trading Sirius via offshore and some US holding companies. The investigation continues to point back to Sirius and collusion with GS in a washed money trail. A little discover from a court suit will be interesting indeed.
The true Consumer and Stock Holder Advocate in Sirius is (in my opinion) Mike Hartleib. I owned a large east coast Internet service and was involved and prevailed in a TELCO suit that did not have half the smoke in the gun used by Sirius. Look out Mel, because Mike Hartleib is the mad dog that has a big bite and he will never let go…
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
Contact:
Michael Hartleib
(949) 795-0580
savesirius@gmail.com
So I went to the SEC website , and filled out a short , quick complaint form ( hint hint ) ......asking them to look into this ( I know , good luck with that ) .......but hell , this is rediculous , and such obvious manipulation ......and evidently , price volume manipulation is illegal somehow , because the SEC site has a specific complaint section " price / volume manipulation " ........Which is exactly what is going on here
Why?
First Mel promises merger not necessary but GOOD for the company. (We were at $4 then).
Then the 17 month merger delay from hell. (As Mel continues to say shareholders WILL benefit).
THEN Merger is APPROVED....BUT Mel sells us out to the shorts setting a $1.50 price which is then ripped to shreds by the aforementioned shorts down to .20 cents.
THEN Sirius issues a proxy for a 1 for 50 reverse split AND 4 BILLION more shares.
THANKS MEL!~
HELLO!!!
MM's will not let this close above .26 ~~~> Total Bull Shit
Just watch them steal then cover by manipulating, then steal then cover by manipulating...
OVER AND OVER
BULL SHIT
I CANT BELIEVE THIS IS LEGAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...
Mel and others at Sirius have fully and totally refused to investigate!
MarKbMarK
You see it happening! Have you traced the source? Because you can trace each trade with L2-L1 information and contacting the Exchange. Then what ever response you get POST IT AND POST THE COMPLAINT LINK FOR THE SEC.
Who is responsible to police this manipulation? The stock holders and the company are the first stop in policing the system. If we don’t call the police when the house gets robbed no-one else will call for us.
WHY DOES SIRIUS REFUSE TO INVESTIGATE AND DEFEND IT’s STOCK?
Mike H. personally wrote a letter to Mel back in May 07, Mike asked Sirius to investigate.
Mike said, “ I have obtained information through the Freedom of Information Act issued by the S.E.C. and other sources, that strongly suggests manipulation in Sirius shares and violations of Federal Securities Law. In speaking with Investor Relations, I have been told it is not the Company’s responsibility to monitor the trading of the Company shares but instead, is the responsibility of the regulators. I disagree and believe the Company has a fiduciary responsibility to protect the interest of its shareholders. I cite the pending Overstock.com, Inc. et al v Morgan Stanley & Co, Incorporated et al litigation filed on behalf of Overstock and its shareholders (Superior Court of the State of California – Case #CGC-07-460147). I believe this case sets a precedent for companies such as Overstock to protect their shareholders and preserve the integrity of their shares. Overstock and its shareholders have seen nearly a forty percent increase in share price since the Complaint was filed. “
Any question?
Mel and others at Sirius have fully and totally refused to defend the Stock Holder and the Stock Price by investigating the obvious SP manipulation of Sirius. Mel has continuously refused to request a SEC investigation.
All more reason to believe Mel is in the dirty work and Sirius is up to no good.
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
Contact:
Michael Hartleib
(949) 795-0580
savesirius@gmail.com
I'm in your corner but as far as the stock price goes, what has happened to it is as legal as church. There is a legal bondholder short on the stock via the convertible financing. And sadly, that type of financing is also legal so Mel cannot be tried for just that. Many other companies have engaged in the same type of loans. Sorry, but that's just a nasty by-product and there's nothing illegal about it...sucks for longs, but nothing illegal.
most. They will get it by dilution and or BK and take it private. What you
are looking at is major white collar crime covered over in legal Corp.
maneuvering. With a Corp. bringing in $2.7 bil and no oversight they are just waiting for the price to break down so they can make their move to buy it for pennies on the dollar. What private equity wouldn't want a Corp. with that cash flow once they blown off some of the debt thru BK and paid some by dilution. If any of the so called wall street wizes aren't figuring that out, watch out they're going to get Sirius and share holders
will get zip. Support Mike H. now and get on the side to stop this swindle and scam. We have to move now. Get it into the news, get it into the courts, rally everyone to get the crooks and save Sirius.
on the facts and court cases can be posted and all the share holders can
go directly to the site instead of searching all the blogs happen stance to exchange info. Any of you webmasters need to contact Mike H and help get
this up as soon as possible. We have to be grateful to Mike H. for doing all the work over the months and fighting the battle. We now have to carry some of the load. I think there may be less than 10 weeks. It might come
down to 4-5. The share holders have to get control NOW, or in a few weeks we'll all be out. Those sitting on the fence or thinking it couldn't
possibly be happening better light a fire under yer butt because the facts
are clear we're getting taken for everything. Any wall street type specialists, SEC people, FCC people, and attorneys who want to help,
come join the good guys and lets get Sirius back and jail the crooks. We
need publicity and media help as well.
I'm just a little guy but if you need my signature, you've got it. I cannot help but agree with your position as described above. Mad as hell for all those good ideas (for saving Sirius from BK and its stockholders) not being implemented due to ulterior motives.
On Nov 07 05:33 PM dayworker wrote:
> We have to help Mike H get a website up and running so all the information
>
> on the facts and court cases can be posted and all the share holders
> can
> go directly to the site instead of searching all the blogs happen
> stance to exchange info. Any of you webmasters need to contact Mike
> H and help get
> this up as soon as possible. We have to be grateful to Mike H. for
> doing all the work over the months and fighting the battle. We now
> have to carry some of the load. I think there may be less than 10
> weeks. It might come
> down to 4-5. The share holders have to get control NOW, or in a few
> weeks we'll all be out. Those sitting on the fence or thinking it
> couldn't
> possibly be happening better light a fire under yer butt because
> the facts
> are clear we're getting taken for everything. Any wall street type
> specialists, SEC people, FCC people, and attorneys who want to help,
>
> come join the good guys and lets get Sirius back and jail the crooks.
> We
> need publicity and media help as well.
I am not a person that takes up the flag and starts a war unless it is over somthing very big and very bad. I am so sad to be posting against Sirius that it makes me more sick with each post.
But, I have seen hard facts and evidance about Mel and Sirius deception, manipulation and even court proven Racateering.
The court judge comment on "Sirius suiting itself" to avoid more stock holder recorse could be used today by the Justice Department to arrest Mel and Company for racketering RECO. The Fed's could investigate this at any time and Sirius has no defence. They were cought red handed.
Mike H. does not request this because it would cause way to much harm to the comapny stock and share holders.Mike H is only taking action to suie managment and have all compinsation given to the company (Derivatives Suit). Less the blood sucker fees. Layers will be the only winers.
This is bad and it is big. Bigger than any of us realy understand yet. Stack holders most act now and demand new managment before mre harm comes.
IT is not a matter of who's side your on. It is a matter of justice and how long will it take to see justice. It is about taking adction now to save our investment.
I hate being involved in this and wish I never heard of Sirius.
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
your on the list. Get the letter from him and send it to the board. We need
all the shareholders we can get to get Sirius in the right hands.
People want to invest in stocks they want to make money. Can you blame them for being afraid? We are constantly misled and lied to by corporate monsters, by financial analyst and others tied to this skewed industry.
Dylan talks about transparency and the lack there of. I say there is no transparency until people get caught. These people are constantly lying and hiding stuff on balance sheet off balance sheet. Where is the protection for shareholders? You’re told to invest in stocks and that when you do you are owning a piece of the company, yet you really have no rights. When the poop hits the fan you find out that the rats have already jumped ship, or they have enriched them selves even more over the company destruction and damage that they caused.
In the end it is always the shareholders that get hurt. They are always the ones left flapping in the wind, via reverse splits, dilution, or bankruptcy. The shareholder is the absolute last person in line to receive anything except a zero in there bank account. In this case imparticular I am referring to siri-xm they are going to have a shareholder meeting Dec. 08. and they want to effect as much as a 1-50 reverse split and or authorize 8billion more share. Mel Karm. I ask where is the responsibility to shareholders.
Where is the responsibility to do the right thing, make the right business decisions, and pursue all alternatives available to working out any problems that a company might have. Instead corporate finds the most profitable and easy alternative is in most cases to just wipe out shareholders make them pay the price.
We have been trying to get Sirius shareholders to rally together to vote this proxy rev-split thing down. It would be nice to get some kind of media exposure. I can’t believe no one is talking about this madness on cnbc. Mel publicly states everything is ok and the company has no need to sell any assets. They could if they needed to. Why do that when we can just unconscionably reduce our shareholders. Why should they care they will get theirs and then some regardless.
Sincerely The Bagholder
Amen … Vote no Rev Split
The SEC site , has a specific complaint category ..." stock price / volume manipulation " ........( right up our alley ) .....the entire process took 2 minutes , very easy , and worth the effort to me .............hope others will do the same
I just want someone to look over the daily price / volume stats , because this stock is not trading properly at all ........It's a billion dollar joke , and everyone is laughing except the shareholders
and whats up with the ask @ .99 every night ..what the hell is that all about ???? bid .24 and ask .99 ????? and then all day the bid / ask stays even at .28 ( or whatever ) ........and if the stock chart were an EKG , the patient would be dead !!!!! Flatlines all day .....WTF
Who would sue themselves? Someone wanting protection in a settlement agreement.
The court judge comment on "Sirius suing itself" to avoid more stock holder recourse could be used today by the Justice Department to arrest Mel and Company for racketeering RECO. The Fed's could investigate this at any time and Sirius has no defense. They were caught red handed.
Mike H. does not request this because it would cause way to much harm to the company stock and share holders. Mike H is only taking action to sue management and have all compensation given to the company (Derivatives Suit). Less the blood sucker fees.
All stock holders must demand new management now to save our investment.
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
In 1970, as part of the Organized Crime Control Act that included the Illegal Gambling Business Act discussed above, Congress, exercised its broad power once again under the Commerce Clause [136] and enacted RICO. [137] Like the Illegal Gambling Business Act, RICO was intended to eradicate organized crime by attacking the sources of its revenue, such as syndicated gambling or bookmakers. [138] RICO imposes both criminal (imprisonment from 20 years to life, depending on the racketeering activity involved) [139] and civil liability (including treble damages, costs and attorneys fees) [140] for those who engage in certain prohibited acts. Section 1962, sets forth the following prohibited activities:
(a) It shall be unlawful for any person who has received any income derived, directly or indirectly, from a pattern of racketeering activity or through collection of an unlawful debt in which such person has participated as a principal within the meaning of section 2, title 18, United States Code, to use or invest, directly or indirectly, any part of such income, or the proceeds of such income, in acquisition of any interest in, or the establishment or operation of, any enterprise which is engaged in, or the activities of which affect, interstate or foreign commerce. A purchase of securities on the open market for purposes of investment, and without the intention of controlling or participating in the control of the issuer, or of assisting another to do so, shall not be unlawful under this subsection if the securities of the issuer held by the purchaser, the members of his immediate family, and his or their accomplices in any pattern or racketeering activity or the collection of an unlawful debt after such purchase do not amount in the aggregate to one percent of the outstanding securities of any one class, and do not confer, either in law or in fact, the power to elect one or more directors of the issuer.
(b) It shall be unlawful for any person through a pattern of racketeering activity or through collection of an unlawful debt to acquire or maintain, directly or indirectly, any interest in or control of any enterprise which is engaged in, or the activities of which affect, interstate or foreign commerce.
(c) It shall be unlawful for any person employed by or associated with any enterprise engaged in, or the activities of which affect, interstate or foreign commerce, to conduct or participate, directly or indirectly, in the conduct of such enterprise's affairs through a pattern of racketeering activity or collection of unlawful debt.
(d) It shall be unlawful for any person to conspire to violate any of the provisions of subsection (a), (b), or (c) of this section.[141]
Essentially, RICO is an aggressive initiative that is remedial in its purpose by supplementing old methods for fighting crime and providing "new weapons of unprecedented scope for an assault upon organized crime and its economic roots." [142] RICO was enacted, in large part, as a Congressional response to organized crime's financial infiltration of legitimate business operations that affected interstate commerce. [143] Congress wanted to remove the profit from organized crime and separate the racketeer from his or her revenue source. [144] Yet, RICO makes no mention of "organized crime." Instead, Congress chose to target "racketeering activity." The provisions of RICO demand a liberal reading to effectuate this broad Congressional intent. [145] Some courts have even interpreted RICO as legislation that ensures marketplace integrity. [146]
"Section 1962 establishes a threefold prohibition aimed at stopping the infiltration of racketeers into legitimate organizations." [147] Subsection (a) makes it unlawful to invest funds derived from a pattern of racketeering activity or collected from an unlawful debt. [148] "Subsection (b) forbids acquiring or maintaining an interest in an enterprise which affects commerce through a pattern of racketeering activity or through collection of an unlawful debt; and subsection (c) forbids participation in the affairs of such an enterprise through those means."[149]
Regardless of whether the action is criminal or civil, a violation of RICO "requires proof of (1) the existence of an enterprise, (2) either a pattern of racketeering activity or the collection of an unlawful debt, and (3) that the enterprise be engaged in or affect interstate commerce." [150] Section 1961 defines several key terms, such as "racketeering activity," "enterprise," "pattern of racketeering activity" a nd "unlawful debt" as follows:
"Racketeering activity" generally means (1) any act or threat involving, among other things, gambling, which is a felony under state law, or (2) an act which is indictable under certain provisions of Title 18, such as the Wire Act, the Travel Act, the Interstate Transportation of Wagering Paraphernalia Act, and the Illegal Gambling Business Act. [151]·
"Enterprise" is defined to include "any individual, partnership, corporation, association, or other legal entity, and union or group of individuals associated in fact although not a legal entity." [152]·
"Pattern of racketeering activity" "requires at least two acts of racketeering activity, one of which occurred after the effective date of this chapter and the last of which occurred within ten years (excluding any period of imprisonment) after the commission of a prior act of racketeering activity." [153]·
"Unlawful debt" generally means a debt that is incurred or contracted in a gambling activity or business in violation of federal, state or local law or is unenforceable, in whole or part, due to usury laws. [154] Congress clearly intended that evidence proving the collection of an unlawful debt would substitute for a showing that two or more predicate offenses were engaged in forming a pattern of racketeering activity. [155]
People want to invest in stocks they want to make money. Can you blame them for being afraid? We are constantly misled and lied to by corporate monsters, by financial analyst and others tied to this skewed industry.
Dylan talks about transparency and the lack there of. I say there is no transparency until people get caught. These people are constantly lying and hiding stuff on balance sheet off balance sheet. Where is the protection for shareholders? You’re told to invest in stocks and that when you do you are owning a piece of the company, yet you really have no rights. When the poop hits the fan you find out that the rats have already jumped ship, or they have enriched them selves even more over the company destruction and damage that they caused.
In the end it is always the shareholders that get hurt. They are always the ones left flapping in the wind, via reverse splits, dilution, or bankruptcy. The shareholder is the absolute last person in line to receive anything except a zero in there bank account. In this case imparticular I am referring to siri-xm they are going to have a shareholder meeting Dec. 08. and they want to effect as much as a 1-50 reverse split and or authorize 8billion more share. Mel Karm. I ask where is the responsibility to shareholders.
Where is the responsibility to do the right thing, make the right business decisions, and pursue all alternatives available to working out any problems that a company might have. Instead corporate finds the most profitable and easy alternative is in most cases to just wipe out shareholders make them pay the price.
We have been trying to get Sirius shareholders to rally together to vote this proxy rev-split thing down. It would be nice to get some kind of media exposure. I can’t believe no one is talking about this madness on cnbc. Mel publicly states everything is ok and the company has no need to sell any assets. They could if they needed to. Why do that when we can just unconscionably reduce our shareholders. Why should they care they will get theirs and then some regardless.
Sincerely The Bagholder
Amen … Vote no Rev Split
Dear Mel and Company
When ever you make your 3rd Q report please remember the things stock holders want to hear are the following:
1. 2008 Debt is fully financed and no more dilution required.
2. Guarantee 2009 Debt will be financed in full and without a Rev-stock split
3. A Guarantee that no Rev Split will be done unless required by NASDq
4. An apology for silence after file a confusing SEC requesting issue and splits
5. An apology for scarring long term investors with a rev-stock split
6. Your personal guarantee the company will not be taken private
7. Status and guarantee the company will not file Chapter 7 or 11
This is what we want to hear. Say anything less and your toast….
Mel, some very pissed off investors will be seeing you December 18th.
Vote No Rev Split
Vote No More Shares
CALL SIRIUS AND GET YOU PROXY. MAKE THEM MAIL THEM PROPERLY <<< --- Mailed Nov 4. Make sure you get yours in the mail!
I am knew at this stock trading and I have not bought anything yet.
I want to learn before I comit.
Explain how short selling is done to affect this stock,
Thanks marcopolodecuba@yahoo....
I am knew at this stock trading and I want to learn more before buying anything
how those that affect the stock?
thanks marcopolodecuba@yahoo....
www.thecre.com/fedlaw/...
I was just catching up on the conversation you had with sl62 last night.
I'm a little surprised to see you so optimistic for Monday, and even more surprised to see you make your first move at .26.
I like the reasoning you and sl62 gave for your optimism, but I have some concerns.
As for the auto's, I agree that we're attached at the hip with them and will move on their news. However, for sl62 to suggest we will get a nice pop off their news of a bail out assumes SIRI is .26 for the right reasons. When has SIRI ever moved on good news? I thought it was agreed that the sp is under the control of shorts, MM's, GS, or whoever, and will move when THEY want it to move.
Also on the auto's, I'm concerned about the idea that we'll see a quick solution / bail out for GM. Another $25b bail out package does NOTHING for them while their cash burn rate is $2.3b per month.....$25b only gives them a few more quarters......A more involved solution will take more time and I can see Obama getting involved, as he is, but I can't see him taking over 2 months before he's even inaugurated.
Given that for the auto's, what if your right, but off on the timing?
Some key points in your theory,
**Auto problem gets solved soon, good for SIRI.
**SIRI debt refi announcement comes soon too, which puts stock up for a happy meeting on Dec. 18th.
**Monday's call is not as bad, and has some surprises (ie. B of B, debt news, advertising news, new product...... )
You and sl62 pointed out the coincidence of timing on all of these issues.
There's also another interesting coincidence of timing.....FEBRUARY...
In FEBRUARY,,,,,
**Obama will have just become president.......
**SIRI debt is due.......
**Time for everyone to report for 4th quarter.........
What if the plan is to continue the vague approach that they've become very good at????
String it out 1 more quarter........
1) There's no reason to report good news like B of B,,,,,,,B of B has nothing to do with the 3rd quarter......we know they could throw us a bone and tell us how it's doing IF they wanted to,,,but, they don't have to.
2) Let us go into the Dec. 18 meeting at .25 cents....It shows the urgency for dilution and rev split...
3) There IS plenty more down side possibility from here if dilution & rev split happen.
4) Q3 numbers will speak for themselves and be HORRIBLE.
So, continue as is,,,,,,,,Bla, Bla, Bla, Q3 report...shorts continue to manipulate and make $$, dilution and split gets approved and is added to Mel's list of weapons,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,...
Then in February, Q4 report looks better than expected (because auto's turned around a little, Xmas ads came out, and more) , B of B is a wonderful surprise, debt re fi is announced for Feb & May.
And we're off..................
I'm just having trouble seeing a big turn around starting on Monday in light of the horrible, factual data out there right now.
Please tell me why I'm wrong............
btw, I'm sick to death of Marks campaign of cut & paste.........
In all fairness, I don't think I was quite as optimistic as s162 was, although if his scenario plays out he may be right. My cautions were on Churn and Subscriber Numbers in the 3rd Q reporting and having subs be above 150K net, which I felt still would be viewed negatively. I also said that I wasn't as optimistic about the Bank Financing of the Feb 09 debt, and though as I had said before, that the dilution of shares was probably a more likely debt resolution.
My Optimism was more in line with the new administration not letting the Auto Industry fail. As I said failure of the auto industry drags a lot of vendor partners in BK and Sirius would be among them. Timing as you say will be as necessary as needed to keep them whole while the details and strings attached are worked out by the government. I agree they need to take their time and do it while moving the industry forward.
In other discussions I also related the end of the day buying that was reducing the close price from .28 to .26. With the stock's sideways movement for two days at .28, I put in a limit bid at .26, for 7500 sh, around 15% of my intended position to try this out as a buy in strategy, and it worked. Given the stocks performance in holding at .28 for two days and a obvious manipulation back down to .26 at the end of the day, I am okay with this as an entry point for my buying back in. This is my first buy back since selling at .41 and I am still set to buy more if the stock goes lower. I am never comfortable in trying to predict exact bottom, so this is how I build my position, and not miss any upside potential.
I cannot say that I am optimistic about the numbers that will be coming out on Monday after hours. I have never been that optimistic about 3Q, but I would be really surprised if all we get is blah, blah, blah, on the operation of the company. I do not believe that Mel is manipulating the stock price, although his financing of the converts at the merge is. Mel has had 1 month of B of B and will comment on its acceptance in light of all of the other bad numbers, IMHO. He also needs to address the change in retail distribution and the impact it will have on seasonal sales. I also think that the stock will go down momentarily this week and I will buy back in to the company. I do not think the stock price will be .25 on Dec. 18. I think it will be closer to .45. I also think the stock has the share dilution already into the current price and the shorts know it. Monday will be another interesting day and your assumptions above are as good as anyone's. Enjoy the weekend and we will see on Monday evening what's up..................
Just a quick check-in...
Regarding your concerns...all IMHO of course....
It has come time to look at the bigger picture...now that there is one. Believe this, @ .26 this stock is extremely undervalued (all things considered of course). And when I say undervalued, I mean according to the company's potentials rather than actuals, and by typical Wall Street behavior. Very few stocks if any trade exactly according to their actual book--it's either overvalued or undervalued. Ex: is Google really worth 350/sh now and were they really worth 800/sh not too long ago? Etc.. on most other high profile stocks. And where SIRI is concerned, were they priced properly @ 9 and are they priced properly @ .26. I think not. But on the downside, we know the main issues behind the drop.
According to the big picture, I am starting to see a change--which being @ .26, at first glance doesn't seem like any genius kind of call... although people are still very afraid of this stock--for good reason. But when I stepped out @.39 (the first time it inhabited the .30's), it was because I was no longer sure what was happening. The company's silence along with the new Proxy and armegeddon financial markets, made this too uncertain for me to ride through uninterrupted. I needed to sleep better. So, since, I've jumped in and out a few times while watching carefully. Much better sanity for me.. lol. But what I have seen recently is a certain new resistance to bad news. Or let's say a better reaction to bad news. What that tells me is the bad news pressure is starting to wear out. Not to say it's immune to downspikes because no stock has that luxury, but I just see signs of exhaustion. Which means to me at some point soon, it is going to stop trending down. How fast it rises all depends on the factors we all know of. But I do believe the stock right now is in the bottoming process. And from here, more people and analysts should start foucsing on the more positive horizon rather than if the company will make it or not. Of the info that was released by the company this week I saw this as important:
>> But it said it "remains confident" in its revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2008 and 2009. That guidance did not change.
Sirius XM projected 2009 revenue of $2.7 billion, 2010 revenue of $3 billion, and 2011 revenue of $3.4 billion.<<
So though they trimmed subs a little, I think things like the synergies could help offset that in the short run, but they maintained two important metrics in EBITDA and Top line. And speaking of...what? revs of 2.7B, 3B, etc...? That's a lot of dough for a company's stock to be worth .26. It's been a perfect storm. A month or so after they release 287M shares designated for shorting the common, the whole financal world melts down. How do you defend against that? It was nothing but "release the hounds" as they say. No way to stop it.
But looking at other issues...like the debt...of which they just paid down about 50M of that so it's now 250M (courtesy of shareholders). They reported about 450M in cash last Q. They should still be in a position to put 125M of cash up with a finance of 125M @ 7 or 8% and dump that convertible. By all rights, what they have put shareholders through, that should be done immediately. Why? Because that will help the stock price and in turn help shareholders...they owe at least that to shareholders who have gotten screwed.. I don't believe for a minute they are oblivious to how angry shareholders are. IMO opinion they must do something sooner than later to relieve a little of that pressure. There is no way on this planet they are going to convene a boatload of angry shareholders in NYC on 12/18 with their stock price sitting at .26. As I said, I see the SP by the meeting being somewhere around a buck--and as a result, they will look like heroes. I truly believe that is what will happen.
The Proxy...Why do I think they will drop the extra shares request?--now that LIBOR is back down. I think the extra shares was in thinking refi would be impossible. Now it is very possible. If they take out the Feb 09, the next facility due in May is bank--which can be extended if need be. If they ultimately need more shares they can always do it at next years meeting--but i no longer see them needing the shares...In the meantime they will still seek the reverse and then do it at some point in first half of '09. The auto bailout money is as you say not the biggest deal, but it will help restore some confidence, which helps SIRI. Confidence of any kind is a welcome thing at this point.
As far as the hedge, again, I think that will begin to abate a bit to lock in extravagent profits and therefore help the stock to rise. I think much of any bad news from this report is already baked in to this current price. Do I think this will be a stellar report, of course not. But I think there will be enough in there like a good progress report on B of B, that will show cause for optimism rather than pessimism. We'll just have to see Monday, but I am not expecting a huge move down. They've just dropped .18 in 10 days. I think that was most of it. It's always hard to know exactly how the Street views news. It could be more upbeat then we think. If the Street thinks this is the bottom, it will be called such. From the signs I have seen lately, I believe this is the case. And look what Rick A, (Mr. Negative himself) from TMF writes today:
>>Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) is talking to financial institutions to help refinance next year's problematic debt repayments. In doing so, the company is going public with its five year projections for subscriber growth, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow. The big news is that over the past two months, the company has shaved 0.9 million members from its original target of having 21.5 million subscribers by the end of next year. However, seeing the combination of growing rolls, revenue, and cash flow metrics paints an encouraging picture of a stock that has been battered by negativity. Has Sirius XM bottomed?<<
SD, I'm feeling like the heavy lifting is done. Now it's time lighten the load and look forward to better times with this stock. Not an instant wet dream, but certainly much better than the past 3 months have been. I'm optimistic...let's see how it goes...
Not looking for a miracle week, but i see in the .30's or .40s by the end of next week. Investors will not want to be on the sidelines on this stock much longer, if anyone is waiting. The waiting might be over soon.
Ok check it out!
1. No matter what we vote for they WILL pass a dilution and reverse split.
Ok, think about it how many shares total do we control vs how many shares "they" control. They control a shit load more!
2. Every long who has held onto their shares from when it started falling since the merger and before we will never make our money back. Reason is because if they do the "reverse split" after that we would be left with not many shares at all. So they totally screwed us for holding onto these shares. For us to make "OUR" money back the stock price will have to reach over $50 a share after the reverse. So I think after the reverse we need to keep buying more shares to average down more. They totally fucked us over.
Anyone else see things different?
I was going to sell like 32000 shares of siri through scottrade and they were asking for a 62 dollar commission? Does this sound right? I thought they traded $7 bucks a trade every-time..??
Although you may be right, I'm having trouble buying into your opinion when you tell us........
""This is what will happen for sure.""
And then you ask the board for advice as to how YOUR broker bills you.........sorry man,,i'm not looking to you as the most experienced cat here........
Shorting is where an entity "borrows" existing shares, then sells them in the open market. Then the same shares are "rebought" to lock in a potential differential gain. Then the shares are returned to from where they were borrowed. In shorting, the entity expects a downward trend in the stock.
Having said that. If you are new to investing, SIRI is no place for you. You should be a few million miles away from this one as there are many complex issues at play here. I recommend you start your trading or investing career on more solid value stocks, where you get a dividend, etc...Do yourself a big favor and convince yourself to leave this place forthwith. IMHO...
As for our conversation,
There are 2 important issues that play into your outlook that I disagree with...
1) There is NO WAY a bank is going to finance SIRI between now and Dec. 18th. There is too much risk in the air that needs a resolution first (ie. auto's, holiday consumer confidence, economy down spiral)
2) Because of #1, I am absolutely convinced that dilution and rev split will be approved on Dec. 18th........They need it.........It's their only way to survive If this economy continues to spiral, and SIRI can't get financed. They at least need to have it in their arsenal going forward.
Given that, it leaves a lot of room for speculation between now and February.......
We will not know how the auto's get solved for a while, we will not know how the economy faired until Q4 reports come out (February), we will not know how Q4 will look for Siri til' Feb ( Q4 for SIRI could make or break us, ads could come out, auto's could get solved, Siri could add 1 mil or break even in Q4 and we will not know til Feb)
If I were Mel, and I couldn't get financing on favorable terms right now, I'd wait until Feb so I could either show Q4 success and get favorable bank financing OR I'd use some of the 8 billion shares that were approved back on Dec. 18th..... and that's why I'm convinced of the dilution approval,,,,,he can't see the future in Feb.
Also, the separation between the numbers release Monday morning and the cc in the evening seems like a set up.
Good news first, then bad news...or visa versa....???? Why??? What action are they expecting during the day on Monday that they will want to wait until after the close to talk?????
By the way,,,,,,,,there's a little more advertising in todays paper........
Once the convertible bond holders have exchanged debt for shares , and are holding millions of shares ........does it not seem that the "manipulation" will reverse course , and an effort to drive the price UP will ensue ???????
GS will pump the stock up to a buck or so , unload all their shares , and then make another killing shorting it back down to 30 cents
Just seems to me the stock will go where GS wants it to go .......so we have to think ......"Where does GS want this stock to go ??" For now , DOWN ...........after trading debt for shares ?? UP .........After unloading all their shares ???? DOWN again , I suspect ........( it is probably easier to short a distressed company , than to long it )
And Siri will continue to be a distressed company until earnings get out of the loss column ............everything else is just grasping at straws ......"predicting" profitability doesn't cut it anymore
And last quarter's loss was .07 per share , so if this quarter's loss is .09 per share ????? Well , what does that tell ya
Remember last quarter , how they beat the street estimate by a penny ???? Estimate was .08 ( I think ) , and actual was .07 ( I think ) ( whatever the numbers were , they beat estimates by a penny )
Well estimates are now .09 loss ...........hmmm , might be a sneaky little ploy to "beat" the street by a penny or two ...........but all in all , I dont think GS wants this stock out of the mud , untill debt is converted to shares ......all of it .............and then ???? Siri is the next best thing to sliced bread for a while .................discl... I am guessing , big time !!!!
Shure46... , 3Q is historically a less revenue driven quarter for Sirius and XM prior to merger, with this merger and consolidation expenses, I really cannot see that changing much..... Also as far as GS is concerned, their only direct investment presently released, as far as I know, is their 127M Feb converts. As much as Weinkes has hurt us, I have never subscribed to the GS conspiracy, because public record doesn't support it and no one has showed me how it does. GS's equity position could be taken out with cash on hand or as part of an agreement with some other entity to pay GS off. That would fit in with Mel's attitude toward GS and would cut them out of the "cheap" .25 cent shares.
S162, SD, and anyone, some puzzling info...
In reading and comparing the Prospectus Supplement (424B5) of 10/29/08, to the initial Prospectus dated 7/30/08 identifying Morgan Stanley Capital and UBS AG, London Branch as recipients of the lent shares and underwriters of the 7% Notes, there was an accounting of the common shares that I found interesting and puzzling. The Oct 29th Supplemental identifies the 5% holders of the common shares sold in conjunction with the Notes and GS is no where to be found in that table listed on P. S-8. That does mean that the stock is being manipulated by others in the arbitrage play of owning these 7% notes.
Also, In the July prospectus there were an estimated 262M shares lent with the possibility of more. In this October supplement there are 293M shares registered with only the 85M accounted for with 5% owners. I doubt the rest of the shares, 208M, is broken up into small lots. I am assuming and I could be wrong, that Morgan Stanley and UBS or some combination of the two, are still holding on to those Lent Shares. Being Sophisticated Investors, could Morgan Stanley, who is also involved in the issuance of the Feb 09 debt, be holding onto these shares for themselves?
Knowing the stock price is going to go down with all the Hedging activity, and with full disclosure as filed in the prospectus, keeping these shares and then going long would be beneficial. It is easy to see how 100M shares lent of the 293M registered could be causing all the shorting activity.
In Addition, the original 7/30 prospectus broke the lent shares into two lots:
-----183M shares at a fixed initial offering of 1.50, which brought the stock price down to these levels.
------79M shares to be sold from time to time on the open market at market or negotiated prices.
Also, the full disclosure comes in the agreement that additional shares, the 79M, that are lent on the market or sold for shorting purposes, require the share borrowers to take an equal position long either directly, or in the form of derivatives, to avoid the effect of the short.
My feeling here is that Morgan Stanley is playing a more significant role here than anyone has given notice to. With all of the GS reports taking this stock down, there isn't any evidence that they are in a position to benefit at this point in time. The real benefactor hear is probably going to be MS and UBS as underwriters and Share Borrowers, placed in control at the time of the merger and who will also now probably play a roll in refinancing the Feb 09 debt.
Let me know your thoughts.... ......
1. Sirius is more of a ONE TRICK PONY than Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.
2. When Stern dies or retires, SIRIUS stock becomes instantly worthless.
3. With the exception of Stern, there is NOTHING you get on Satellite radio you can't get for free on Terrestrial.
Sorry, but that's the truth.
On Nov 09 06:34 PM cos1000 wrote:
> So when Stern dies...... in another 20 - 30 years? ... your point?
> You obviously never listened to Satellite Radio.... ignorance breeds
> uninformed opinion......
Whatever Mike, your clueless...........If Stern was holding the company up then how did XM get 9 million listeners without him???
By the way, that was a retorical question, don't answer it, i'm not interested...........
If true, would that suggest even more that when the Feb debt gets taken out that the shorting will drop off?
Does that change our opinion of Mel's involvement?
Why would GS (Weinke) be so involved in taking the sp down?
It doesn't change my opinion of Mel at all. All of this information has been fully disclosed. Mel insulted us by calling us, as retail shareholders unsophisticated. He was probably right. I have never attacked Mel, ever on this board or anywhere else. If I felt Mel was a criminal and not operating in shareholder best interest I would lead the charge in his undoing. Just because I might be insulted by what he said, doesn't mean that as I get more sophisticated in my analysis, that he was wrong, or Weinkes for that matter.
All this talk on these boards about law suits and Goldman, has been a distraction created by those shareholders who post here and are regretting their investment.
Just as you, I have been struggling to understand what is going on based on the numbers and publicly disclosed SEC reports. No conspiracy theories, no paranoia out of control, just analysis of what is available to the common shareholder. That is the only discussion that I feel is productive and useful in determining what to do next. The information I have provided is available for anyone to read from the SEC filings. Most, including myself, have been so concerned with SP movement, that doing research and analysis has fallen by the wayside.
Morgan Stanley is a relevant player here and soon we will see to what extent.... Just because, as disclosed, Mel negotiated the deal doesn't mean anything illegal took place. Morgan Stanley has been involved with these two companies since inception. Their profiting from that relationship is not something that I would be oppose to, so long as the current shareholders profit with them.
Well here we go,,,the eve of another highly anticipated day.
My hope is that the bad numbers speak for themselves before the open and it causes a downward movement (I have a buy order in at .20 which will complete my position). Then, after the close comes the surprise.....what surprise I don't know,,,but A surprise I hope.
And then, I hope you and sl62 are right and we'll have some upward movement going into the Dec. 18th meeting.
We'll see............
Good luck and good night.......
Why do you think there will be a surprise after hours??.... that would be SP manipulation for sure. If the numbers are posted in the morning, which I doubt.... that would be a surprise to me. Usually to meet the SEC requirement of reporting, the numbers will come out just before close, or at close, and the conference call would follow.... that's my expectation and tomorrow during the day everyone Else's expectations will play out in due course...... Its the after hour trades that will set Tuesday's tone.... I'm sure their actual filing with the SEC, even though tomorrow is the last day for compliance, will be done in order.
Can someone please explain to me what would happen to us longs after the merger?
We probably would have to average down again right?
I don't know why, but for some reason I thought the Q3 numbers were being released this morning and the call is this afternoon...........
By bad,,,,,,
By the way,,,,,,I've been meaning to tell you...I'm from R.I. and my dogs name is Fenway........
just look at some of the inane, poorly spelled posts on seeking alpha and yahoo (ESPECIALLY yahoo. pick ONE random page on the SIRI yahoo msg. board (frequented by retail investors), and read the posts) - the word unsophisticated might be generous.
it may seem insulting, but was he far off?
On Nov 09 08:33 PM cos1000 wrote:
> siriusly depressed...
>
> It doesn't change my opinion of Mel at all. All of this information
> has been fully disclosed. Mel insulted us by calling us, as retail
> shareholders unsophisticated. He was probably right. I have never
> attacked Mel, ever on this board or anywhere else. If I felt Mel
> was a criminal and not operating in shareholder best interest I would
> lead the charge in his undoing. Just because I might be insulted
> by what he said, doesn't mean that as I get more sophisticated in
> my analysis, that he was wrong, or Weinkes for that matter.
>
> All this talk on these boards about law suits and Goldman, has been
> a distraction created by those shareholders who post here and are
> regretting their investment.
>
> Just as you, I have been struggling to understand what is going on
> based on the numbers and publicly disclosed SEC reports. No conspiracy
> theories, no paranoia out of control, just analysis of what is available
> to the common shareholder. That is the only discussion that I feel
> is productive and useful in determining what to do next. The information
> I have provided is available for anyone to read from the SEC filings.
> Most, including myself, have been so concerned with SP movement,
> that doing research and analysis has fallen by the wayside.
>
> Morgan Stanley is a relevant player here and soon we will see to
> what extent.... Just because, as disclosed, Mel negotiated the deal
> doesn't mean anything illegal took place. Morgan Stanley has been
> involved with these two companies since inception. Their profiting
> from that relationship is not something that I would be oppose to,
> so long as the current shareholders profit with them.
I have been catching up on some of the posts I have missed... and a stunning factoid popped out at me.... besides Cos and Mark.... a number of people have done another 180' on their opinions of this stock... LoL
(With the exception of a few ignorant posters coming in to say this stock sucks w/o stern, with their highly respectable 2 comments..... LOL!!!)
And while I am not necessarily riding the " conspiracy " horse ......there is NO DOUBT that the IB's can and will manipulate this stock to squeeze every ounce of profit out ......whether long or short , for as long as they can , in any way they can ( straddling the oh so delicate fence of legality )
And it seems to me that the investment fund institutions ( those that have a long position ) have always tried to be somewhat positive in their opinions , but it has always been Weinkes as the doomsayer .........I say that will change when " GS " ( all debt holders ) , convert to shares
makes sense to me
Now Siri is the next best thing to sliced bread , they sell off their shares @ 1.00 , and make 66% .......not bad
After that , bad news floods the internet , and they short Siri back down to .30 , and make ANOTHER 66%
That's what I would do if I was an unethical , manipulative , prick
I rest my case
but satrad is here to stay ........we are entering a world where you have to pay for EVERYTHING ........
I think even TV going HD , is a ploy to encourage people to buy satellite TV
I also think terrestrial radio is trying to get out from under FCC regulations by going HD .......If terrestrial radio can ever get channels where content is free to do what they want , they will somehow charge for that , and eat a chunk out of satrad .......in fact terrestrial radio is going to say , " Hey it isn't fair , we can't compete unless we can cuss and say what we want too " .........Just like regular TV pushes the envelope more and more to compete with cable / sat TV
but satrad will always hold the power to push the envelope the farthest , just as cable / sat TV
frankly , I think Howard has turned free speech into nothing but 3rd grade potty humor ..........I like his show when he is talking SOME politics or heavy topic , and yes , I laugh at a lot of that gross crap .......but it is really debasing people into scum thinking idiots for the most part , and he is definately over-paid ..............I suspect by the time he retires , another freak show DJ will take the throne
It's not that hard to find a hooker to have anal sex with a deficating midget nowdays
markbmark, You are a blatant lier, I have already told you there was never any judge that said SIRI sued itself. That the case you speak of happened well before the SIRI law suit and so had no mention of SIRI in it. While it is Mike H. opinion that is what happen it is not fact and cannot be backed up by any facts. If you keep putting up lies I will be informing investor relations about the defamation of SIRI you keep putting up. Now I have not seen anything about this from Micheal H. in print, here or anywhere else but maybe when you are being sued you will be able to tell where you are getting your false information and SIRI can then go after him also. Once again this is the last warning I am giving you, if I see you blantantly lie about a judge saying SIRI sued itself again, I will make sure the right people are informed to take action. It is obvious you have no legal council because he would be telling you to not say another word on this matter while there is a ongoing suit.
I agree with you about about MS. You accurately brought that up a long time ago when many thought it was all GS. And as I recently perused the different prospecti, I noticed it again. Either way, not much we "unsophisticates" lol, can do but wait. As far as the share numbers, it's so hard for us to track any of that accurately but your scenario makes sense. As some of us now realize, the devil truely was in the details and not only reading but understanding it all was crucial. I was not too boned up on IB bondholder funding with the guaranteed hedge. I am now!! So where my opinion used to be negative on Mel, it is now more attaching to the details, which as we know have been out since the beginning. Overall, I'm keeping my opinion on Mel neutral. Why he was only getting to financing details the week (and hour) before closing the deal, still doesn't seem like good business to me. Plus, if the deal he did do was his only option, and knew it would hurt shareholders, I think a more public statement from him to shareholders was in order (rather than letting crazy Cramer do it on the air while Mel just kind of shrugged it off). He should have taken that or another opportunity to describe the ramifications to shareholders...in a shorter prospectus supplement mainly structured for that (more like the Oct 29)...then let us decide what to do. I think given that, many of us would have sold right then. In the end though, this is Wall Street and no one ever said Wall Street was kind or gentle to shareholders.
My other caveat is that, staying in and even knowing more then, I still think it really would have been impossible to predict this kind of decline fully. It was going down, but where was anybody's guess and most of many of our low predictions around .50/.60/.70 I think were valid. Other hedged deals don't always bring a stock down to .20. Unfortunately for us, in came the financial crisis, credit freeze, Proxy, and so down it dropped to here no problem. I also think we would all agree that Mel's deafening silence to shareholders and his obnoxious public gaffs through it all didn't help either. So here we are. I do wish more people contributing to this board, including Mike H, would go back and read all of the prospetus releases posted on the SIRI website (or Edgar). It's all there folks. Not easy to find so much because it was buried pretty well early on, and not very shareholder friendly, but it is there and was there. All very legal.
Well This Might Be Sirius?...
As far as changing 180...it's nothing more than interpreting data--as I'm sure you read my posts. Some of us jumped out, reallocated funds elsewhere to maximize the timeframe for profits, yet have always continued to watch for any meaningful re-entry when things made more sense (and while even trading the recent dips on the side). Look at CC today. This is why I did what I did. You never know who's going to do what or when at this point (when debt is "high" and the SP is in trouble per se). CC files, SP is .10, and they are yanked immediately off the NYSE at the open just like that--poof. Granted BK was on the table for CC for a while but you still never know when the trigger gets pulled. Look at SIRI's Proxy. Though it wasn't that, it certainly was a surprise to all, and "could have" just as easily have been a notice like CC today, IMO. And for me that's what was too dangerous. People like yourself have stayed the course and it's worked out OK...so that has worked too for you. Just two different methods towards the same goal...
SD...
Appreiciate your opinion. I still think a refi is on the table before the meeting. Who's to say what LIBOR will be in Feb? That's another gamble looking at it that way. AIG just lowered their loan rate from the Fed from LIBOR + 8.5% to LIBOR + 3%..and that's on biilions...
>>In particular, the interest rate on the facility will be reduced to three-month Libor plus 300 basis points from the current rate of three-month Libor plus 850 basis points, and the fee on undrawn funds will be reduced to 75 basis points from the current rate of 850 basis points.
The length of the facility will be extended from two years to five years. The other material terms of the facility remain unchanged. The facility will continue to be secured by a lien on many of the assets of AIG and of its subsidiaries.<<
Btw..All (including Dillon Ratigan) should also keep in mind that the AIG 'bailout" is not just giving them TARP tax dollars. They are being LOANED the money at an interest rate. ALL payable back to the Treasury (American people) with interest... What the American people get back is not only more money than they lent but also that they don't have to stand in soup lines...but I digress, Back to SIRI.
SIRI hypothetically could now be looking for 125M (proposing as suggested they pay, half in cash). And I wonder, could that be why they used available stock to just pay off approx 50M, and not cash? Also, if they were going to dilute w/3.5B new shares in 6 weeks, why bother pay down on the 300M now anyway? Unless...they were setting up to get the smallest loan possible now? You have to wonder...You have to find it curious why they paid that down. The stock never moved, which I think they knew would happen. But they know it will move if they announce a new credit facility. Also, why would Mel say again last week that they're still talking to lenders?
A month ago Mel said he could get LIBOR + 6 or 7. So let's say he could get 6 then... hypothetically, maybe now that things have cleared a bit, he can get 5/5.5/5.75%. So with 3Mo LIBOR @ about 2.3% today, he'd be looking at roughly 7.5% - 8%. On 125M @ 8%, you're looking at 10M a year in interest. Does anyone believe they can't afford 10M/y in interest? Esp. if it raises their SP and Market Cap? Helping to attract new investors and making the company actually look somewhat stable (and not be the Wall Street joke they are now?) As said, because the rates future is so uncertain, I would lock in now, take care of this and get focused on growing the company. If I'm CEO, that's what I would do. Get this handled now so people can start focusing on what we actually do well and instead of debt issues... If they really do care about shareholders, which I have to believe they do, at some point they have to show it. This would be a good way and it would go a long way toward their own benefit as well..not only in building new shareholder confidence, but also in the company's own market value (and as said plus a step toward shaking current joke status with The Street). I say go for it. According to their projection numbers, a 125M loan is not that big of a risk for a bigger lending institution (assuming today's numbers will by-in-large support those claims).
What about GS? Now that they're ostensibly a regular bank (or MS, as is I believe they are no longer officially an IB either...not sure there but they are now connected to Mitsubishi)...these two hypothetically, of course, but they both do have existing relationships w/ SIRI (and longer w/Mel) so...it would be a win-win for either...they got their hedge money then they also get the new 10M/yr on a regular loan. Not too bad a deal I would say...
Well see, but that's my opinion at the moment.
So far today, the SP doesn't seem to be fearing the pending release...I will most likely just stay in and see what happens.
Sir, you making threats on this board is somthing that can get you into truble. I have no desire to get into a spit match with you or anyone else here. I say what I have seen on Sirius because I know it is the truth. So, please tell the people test me.
Actualy you are funny. We all know you. And we all know you work for Sirius.
Mel is a crook! Sirius did sue itself. I and I am not interested in anything you think about me. I do not post here for Sirius emploees....
Vote no Rev Split...
Vote no more Shares
Request Mel be removed!!!
Who would sue themselves? Someone wanting protection in a settlement agreement.
The court judge comment on "Sirius suing itself" to avoid more stock holder recourse could be used today by the Justice Department to arrest Mel and Company for racketeering RECO. The Fed's could investigate this at any time and Sirius has no defense. They were caught red handed.
Mike H. does not request this because it would cause way to much harm to the company stock and share holders. Mike H is only taking action to sue management and have all compensation given to the company (Derivatives Suit). Less the blood sucker fees.
All stock holders must demand new management now to save our investment.
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split
Do you think Bond holders exchange all debt for shares before or after the merger?
P.S. you dont know anything that is clear. You once again assumed you know something, I dont work for SIRI, XMSR or SIRIXM nor have I ever. I have not worked for the last 4 years num-nuts.
Spit match... LOL
Hay Mel called, he wants more cream in his coffee...
Hope they pay you well at Sirius...
OK, I have your warrning and heard your swine. Now go away and let people use the board.
Please go away!!!
VOTE NO REV-SPLIT
All stock holders must demand new management now to save our investment.
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote no Rev Split CO
Q3 CALL TODAY! 1974 Nixon yammered “ I am not a crook “! What will Mel have to say to us at 4:30pm today? I can hardly wait for the double talk and he-haw of old blather.
What ever Mel has to say today, it will not keep his loyal stock holders away from the December 18, Sirius love fest. Mel, we have something for you and it is not love…
Vote no rev-split
Good points...will be interesting to hear the Q news finally and anything else regarding financing...
hartleib1
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 131 Friday, February 22, 2008
Judge to California lawyers: Don't come backTriangle Business Journal - by Chris Baysden
Print Article Email Article Reprints RSS Feeds ShareThis
: Don't come back [02/22/2008]
> More Search Results
RALEIGH - North Carolina public companies have one less law firm to worry about when it comes to shareholder lawsuits filed in the state.
North Carolina Business Court Judge Ben Tennille has barred the San Diego, Calif., firm of Robbins Umeda & Fink from practicing in the state for five years on a pro hac vice basis. The Latin phrase, which means "this time only," allows an out-of-state lawyer to appear in court for a particular trial even though the lawyer isn't licensed in that state.
The order came as something of a coda to a shareholder lawsuit, Egelhof v. Szulik, filed on behalf of a former Red Hat shareholder against members of the technology company's officers and board of directors.
Shareholder lawsuits are the bane of many public corporations since there are a host of law firms that specialize in filing them on word of bad news from a company.
In 2004, Robbins Umeda & Fink represented a plaintiff in a shareholders derivative case involving Chapel Hill-based Pozen. That lawsuit was dismissed in November 2005.
Press Millen, a Womble Carlyle attorney who helped defend Red Hat's management in the Egelhof v. Szulik case, hopes the victory his side scored will have a positive impact for corporations beyond the case.
"I think it's pretty serious," Millen says of the sanctions. "It's definitely a warning shot over the bow of out-of-state counsels about filing meritless lawsuits in North Carolina."
Sanctions against plaintiff
The order, which was issued Feb. 4, prohibits Robbins Umeda & Fink's lawyers from appearing in the state's courts for five years. It also bars Andrew Egelhof, the plaintiff in the case, from acting as a shareholder derivative plaintiff or a class-action representative in North Carolina litigation for five years.
The Egelhof v. Szulik complaint, which originally was filed in Wake County Superior Court in 2004, included allegations of insider trading and gross mismanagement at Red Hat. Defendants included Red Hat Chairman Matthew Szulik and board members Marye Anne Fox, former chancellor of North Carolina State University, and retired Army Gen. Hugh Shelton.
Tennille dismissed the plaintiff's claims in March 2006 due in part to Egelhof's loss of standing as a stockholder. The defendants later asked that they be awarded attorneys' fees. Though that motion was not granted, it prompted Tennille to examine actions taken by the plaintiff and the law firm.
Tennille asserts that the lawsuit was filed in a "needless rush to court" just 31 days after Red Hat restated its earnings on July 19, 2004. He wrote in his order that the case was filed without an inspection of the company's books and records, and many of the allegations relied on media reports and published analyst opinions.
Tennille also took exception to Egelhof being the fiduciary standard bearer. According to court documents, Egelhof was a 24-year-old Kansas resident when he responded to an Internet solicitation seeking a plaintiff.
While he had a degree in business administration, Egelhof had worked in information technology jobs at Kansas State University. His holdings in Red Hat amounted to 28 shares of stock worth $710.50 that he bought in 2004.
markbmark, Dhaaaa
On Nov 10 12:01 PM Mike01251 wrote:
> well, I certainly can appreciate that you fine SIRIUS investors choose
> to denigrate my posts due to the fact that I've only had two of them.
> Okay, here's #3.... If you are all so smart, why do you spend SO
> much time lamenting over your SIRIUS stock? Hmmmmm? Please try and
> appreciate the fact that we ALL have opinions, and, the fact that
> they don't meet your approval doesn't make them any less valid. Despite
> your low opinion of me, I will continue to root for some good news
> from Mel this afternoon so that you may have at least one night of
> restful sleep.
I listened to the whole call, no surprises and their still growing, that's all good. Now we'll have to see what the filing actually shows for cash on hand and other merger details. This CC was all pro forma.... we'll have to see how the analysts take that.... I am on hold before buying any more shares unless my .24 buy gets taken out. There is around 800K shares sitting at .27 holding the price firm so not much chance of that happening tonight. That 800K is in 3 lots.
s162... You and I now know more about convertible debt, the loaning of shares to support the equity holders, and the effect on common shares than we really ever wanted to know.... Even though I read the information, by the time I educated myself on the deals impact, it was too late. As you say, we then entered the perfect storm and all ships went down.... It is a hard and unforgiving game that we play... and education always comes at a high price.
163888...... Now you've done it.... your confusing him with way too many facts. By the way as an employee of Sirius, any openings there.... If I can make some money while I do this ...... why not..... LOL
Cos1000...
Check out this link..it appears to have Q metrics. I think I'm reading cash as:
www.tradingmarkets.com.../
>>Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 438,820 393,421 Cash and cash equivalents at end of period $359,657 $357,710.<<
So a burn of about 79M. Not too bad. Cash equivalents down 36M. It would seem they could still afford to put up 100M toward refi...and still have 259M left.
So headlines are varied. Weird, Bloomberg came out first as a neg headline--but then the article was pulled. I read it but now it's gone! Then Wallst24/7 was next with this but they HATE SIRI (check out this soap opera junk):
SIRIUS XM Gives Confusing Report (SIRI)
Sirius_logo SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) has just reported its first real earnings report since its full merger completions. The satellite radio giant posted results which it only included in the conference call rather than in a press release. About 12 minutes into the conference call we started seeing numbers come across newswires with additional data and some different figures, so you will need to compare results on your own. That practice is not normal should not at all be accepted as fair or normal in today's world.
In the conference call, the company said that Pro Forma is without many costs associated with earnings with revenues gaining 16.5% to $613 million, adjusted loss excluding costs was -$9 million. Be advised that these were taken from the audio conference and appear different than the first headlines we saw from newswires.
Mel Karmazin did note in the conference call that it is very hard to talk positively about anything because of where the stock price is, but he wanted to discuss the positives and discuss how well this is compared to how the economy and where auto sales are. He is still talking positive EBITDA in 2009 and now sees a smaller EBITA loss for 2008. In 2009 it will have over $300 million in EBITDA and will not have a net cash outflow for the full year of 2009 (and will continue that beyond).
We did not put much faith in the First Call numbers of -$0.09 EPS and $587.4 million in revenues because analysts have lost coverage, have not made proper updates, and have not counted in all of the numbers from the merger.
In fact, this last quarter still is not a true representation of the company on a fully combined basis. The bad news is that when the numbers are fully comparable, the economy will have come down to a crawl.
Will Mel take it private or will the shareholder suit win over the company? Either way, stock de-listing issues and refinancing issues lie around the corner.
I have analyzed companies in the same manner for over a decade and this order of starting a conference call without the press release has happened so few times.
Jon C. Ogg
November 10, 2008
Here's REUTERS (positive)
UPDATE 1-Sirius quarterly loss narrows, affirms outlook
© Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved
* Pro forma Q3 net loss in line with expectations
* Pro forma Q3 revenue rises 16 pct, beats expectations
* Adds 344,100 net subscribers in Q3
* Backs 2008 and 2009 outlook
NEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) posted a narrower quarterly loss on Monday as an increase in subscribers boosted revenue, despite slower demand for satellite radios from the troubled car industry.
Sirius XM, whose stock price has plunged below 30 cents on concerns about subscriber growth and its ability to repay debt, said its pro forma third-quarter loss was $217 million, or 9 cents a share, compared with $265.5 million, or 18 cents per share, a year ago. The pro forma figures assume that Sirius and XM were one company a year ago.
Pro forma revenue rose 16 percent to $613 million, beating the average analyst forecast of $575 million, according to Reuters Estimates. Wall Street was expecting earnings of 9 cents per share.
Sirius said it added 344,100 net subscribers in the quarter, ending the period with 18.9 million subscribers. That is an increase of 17 percent from one year ago.
Sirius is considering a reverse stock split in an effort to lift its depressed share price and avoid the risk of being delisted from the Nasdaq stock market.
Last week the company said it expected the auto industry's troubles to harm its results. Sirius said it expects to end 2008 with 19.1 million subscribers, and end 2009 with 20.6 million subscribers.
It remains confident, however, in its revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2008 and 2009, which did not change.
Sirius said its net loss for the third quarter was $1.93 per share. (Reporting by Franklin Paul, editing by Gerald E. McCormick, Richard Chang)
I'm still pissed at those dicks at Wall St.24/7. Get a load of that report!! That's exactly what you write when you hate a company and are trying to help them out of business...they're a bunch of A-holes.
Wed. they consolidate streams. Tomorrow may be a modest rally, Wed. might be bigger.
XM cost us 4 billion!!!
Bad managment Crooks!!!
The Rev Split will be the end!
Here come the shorts and we are back to .45 cents againg.
Crooks all of them crooks!
I am here. I am not going away. You Sirius goons can bad mouth me all you like.
You have been pumping Sirius on Tylers logs for 2 years and everyone has lost money listening to you! I will not let you continue to sell Sirius unaposed. I will tell whay I know to be true and let you tell lies. Most people will apreciate a second opinion.
To much optamism here for to long!
Vote no Rev Split...!
Vote no more stock issue...!
Kick Mel out...!
Sirius is run by crooks
LONG AND DEEP IN SIRIUS....!
Mel called the lost $4 Billion "GoodWill"!
Value of XM 18 month before the Merger vs Huge debt the day of the Merger?
A good man would have said no merger. HE could have backed out without any cost! But no, he wanted to controle all Sat Bandwith and also take the company private.
Mel we see what your about now. We were all dooped! Your a nasy stinking CROOK!
Vote NO REV-SPLIT or he will have us shorted again!
Vote NO MORE SHARES or he will delute to the value of toilet water!
KICK MEL OUT!!!
Buffer? Mel said more share are needed for a buffer? Stock holders need some buffer in our bank accounts before we are going to give that crook any buffer!
Mel said he still can't figure it out. But maybe its the GoodWill.
COOKing the BOOKS to get EBITHA? How do you waist 4 Billion and still show les neg EBITHA? You cook the books!
Wow can this Crook Cook!!!
Vote no Rev Split
Sirius XM has endured heavy turbulence since the merger closed at the end of July. Subscriber growth has been hobbled by the slow economy, and Sirius XM faces almost $1 billion in debt that comes due next year
Vote NO REV-SPLIT or he will have us shorted again!
Vote NO MORE SHARES or he will delute to the value of toilet water!
KICK MEL OUT!!!
Vote NO REV-SPLIT or he will have us shorted again!
Vote NO MORE SHARES or he will delute to the value of toilet water!
KICK MEL OUT!!!
Vote NO REV-SPLIT or he will have us shorted again!
Vote NO MORE SHARES or he will delute to the value of toilet water!
KICK MEL OUT!!!
analysts
analysts
analysts said " pay its debt, and the moves it is planning "
The plan is to rip the stock holder off BIG TIME!!!
MEL IS A CROOK!
Vote NO REV-SPLIT or he will have us shorted again!
Vote NO MORE SHARES or he will delute to the value of toilet water!
KICK MEL OUT!!!
On Nov 07 01:05 PM dayworker wrote:
> We know the revenue is about $2.7 bil. That's equal to almost 35%
>
> of total film box office of $8 bil for the year. The question is
> how they
> manage the $2.7 bil. That's a lot of money. Compared to the whole
>
> film industry this fledgling SatRad has big income. So how is it
> they
> are always in the red. Is it mis management or corruption? Are they
>
> manipulating the revenue, cooking the books to drive the stock price
>
> down for BK ,privitization or dilution for a takeover? We can site
> all
> the problems with the economy, auto sales and credit markets, but
> it
> still comes down to how they handle the $2.7 bil. revenue. If the
>
> operating expenses are wasted, the talent fee's to high, bosses salaries,
>
> etc. etc., the problem is someone is getting the revenue and books
> need
> to be looked at for corruption, theft and mismanagement.