Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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Okay, so we got the big stimulus package from the Chinese and no doubt that was the rumor that sent futures skying on Friday late and on into the opening today. Folks got anxious and jumped to long positions. They must not be pleased tonight.

ETF Digest Sacred Cow VII advises, “You don’t need a PhD to make money in the markets…” This reminds me of the news today that Nobel Prize winner Myron Scholes froze the assets of his hedge fund Platinum Grove Contingent Master Fund given fund redemption issues. Of course Scholes was heavily involved in the Long Term Capital Management debacle as well. While winning a Nobel Prize is cool and everything, batting 0-2 will not win him many new clients. Truth be told, all these guys seem to resurface down the road.

The week is young and volume today was light. Tomorrow is a semi-holiday and not much news is expected until retailers start making reports. While the action must have disappointed a lot of investors anxious to get going, there were some bright spots in overseas and commodity markets.

Let’s see what happens.

Have a pleasant evening.

Disclaimer: The ETF Digest has no positions in any of the featured markets.

Comments

[SPXplus10:]

Good stuff! The pithy comments make chart poring that much less dreadful (no matter how essential). Hope to see more from David.

2008 Nov 10 11:42 PM

[directcommu...:]

This is one of those stocks (gld) that likes to bounce from 70-75. Makes great trading.

2008 Nov 11 12:26 AM

[bosun.j:]

Good information. Good perspective. Good execution. Looking to see more of the same from you David!

2008 Nov 11 01:18 AM

[Pipo:]

Are we going to test the 2007 lows on Oil (USO? It surely look like so in the graph.

Today there a a report about a new Demand cut by the IEA that might be a short term drag:

oiltradersblog.blogspo...

2008 Nov 11 06:24 AM

[Owen:]

We have laws against trading US securities based on non-public information about these companies to which the insider trader has access. There is, however, no law against trading such securities based on advance knowledge of the actions of a foreign government. It is perfectly legitimate under US law for people close to the Chinese or any other foreign government to use such government information for their advantage in trading US securities.

It may be "crap", as you call it, but it's part of the game. Insiders are not there for you to "trust" (or mistrust); they are there to make money off you. They play under exactly the same set of rules as you do, but armed with more information than you have. Live with it or find a new profession.

2008 Nov 11 07:28 AM

[PDL27:]

Interesting comment on Myron Scholes freezing the assets of his hedge fund... being a Nobel Laurette (sp?), I can now see why Paul Krugman was recently given this honor.

Thanks for the informative charts and commentary.

2008 Nov 11 08:24 AM

[Yankee Runn...:]

Owen,

Spoken like a true insider... Sounds like Dave hit a nerve with you, perhaps you are the insider Shill.

2008 Nov 11 10:23 AM

[Owen:]

YR Dog,

Yes, I must be The Insider Shill who drove up the entire market 5% on large volume after the close on Friday. I am also Jack the Ripper and the Easter Bunny.

Stupidity always hits a nerve with me. I can assure you that if I had access to insider information which I could lawfully use, I would use it without hesitation.

2008 Nov 11 11:00 AM

[Yankee Runn...:]

Hey, Jack the Ripper and the Easter bunny,

Go have a drink and chill out, unbridled arrogance gets boring fast.

Yankee Running Dog

2008 Nov 11 01:57 PM

[swellman:]

More of the same, nice to look at the charts but the comments are useless, so are lines that are drawn at will, wherever. Don't read to much into them.

2008 Nov 11 10:53 PM

[Teahn222:]

Swellman: you sound like an angry, venting perma-bull. Good luck.

2008 Nov 13 10:53 AM