Five Key Quotes from Sirius on Satellite Radio and Automakers 27 comments
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Sirius XM (SIRI) took a $4.75 billion impairment charge in Q3 after the company’s value dropped from $3.79 in February, when they announced a merger with XM Satellite Radio, to $0.27 Monday. The company says it is doing better than rivals, but it’s all relative in this market.
Auto sales directly impact Sirius' sales as subscribers sign up for the technology when they buy new cars. As such, satellite radio vendors have little control in this aspect and are facing a decidedly bleak outlook from car manufacturers. From Sirius Satellite Radio Inc.’s Q308 conference call:
Besting rivals:
Clear Channel (CCU) is the number one radio revenue company, and they reported to-date third quarter revenue declining 7%. The second largest... is SIRIUS XM, whose revenue was up 16%. The third largest radio revenue company, CDS, showed a 12% decline.
People still willing to pay a premium for personal entertainment:
The $16.99 package where XM subscribers are opting for best of SIRIUS is the most sought-after… [A] relatively modest number of people are opting for lower-priced packages.
Fortunes aligned with automakers as satellite radios are sold in new cars:
We actually saw a good uptick in penetration rates, particularly at Ford and General Motors… With Chrysler, Ford and General Motors, our performance in the third quarter at all three of those are at penetration rates that approach 70%.
We do not have a whole lot of control over what cars are getting sold… So we are at the mercy of what happens. In providing the guidance, we are obviously cognizant of it.
Q: If GM or Ford went bankrupt or GM merged with Chrysler, would that change any of your contracts or make them available for renegotiation?
A: If they merge, a deal is a deal, and if something different happens, they would go into court… Remember that one of the things that is attractive to them in there is the revenue share.
Cash flow/debt outlook:
In 2009 we will have over $300 million of EBITDA. And after all cash expenses, including satellite expenditures, we will not have net cash outflow for the full year '09. And this positive trend will continue in subsequent years…
Q: You are optimistic about the refinancing. [But] what is the Plan B here?
A: We had $300 million of maturities due. We are now at approximately $210 million of maturities due. I told you that we have had discussions with lenders… The company remains confident that we will in short order get the February '09 refinancing done.
Like many large companies, their stock is below $1:
We have asked shareholders to authorize a reverse stock split, should the Board of Directors decide to do one. Our interest in a reverse split is motivated by requirements of NASDAQ for us to remain a listed company.
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This article has 27 comments:
Exactly what I said yesterday... They lowered their subscriber projection due to an >>>EXPECTED&l... sharp decline in autosales...
I personally don't think that the slowdown will effect growth that much, due to used cars that are being sold and retailers selling radios in the holiday season....
Any opinions??
Think about it in terms of internet.... The more users online, the slower it goes because of traffic..... You can only send so much information at a time...
It's a great idea, but right now it shouldn't be implemented because of the economics of the company! (They are trying to save as much $ as they possibly can)
My comment about the auto decline was in response to yesterdays post where we were talking about some of us being worried about Mel lowering his Subscriber expectations... And yesterday I said it was most likely just because of the auto industry... That way they have an excuse to lowball estimates...
And todays post just confirmed it... that's what I was saying.... I totally believe that they will beat their subscriber estimates....
XM cost us 4 billion!!!
Bad managment Crooks!!!
The Rev Split will be the end!
Here come the shorts and we are back to .45 cents againg.
Crooks all of them crooks!
I am here. I am not going away. You Sirius goons can bad mouth me all you like.
You have been pumping Sirius on Tylers logs for 2 years and everyone has lost money listening to you! I will not let you continue to sell Sirius unaposed. I will tell whay I know to be true and let you tell lies. Most people will apreciate a second opinion.
To much optamism here for to long!
Vote no Rev Split...!
Vote no more stock issue...!
Kick Mel out...!
Sirius is run by crooks
LONG AND DEEP IN SIRIUS....!
analysts
analysts
analysts said " pay its debt, and the moves it is planning "
The plan is to rip the stock holder off BIG TIME!!!
MEL IS A CROOK!
Vote NO REV-SPLIT or he will have us shorted again!
Vote NO MORE SHARES or he will delute to the value of toilet water!
KICK MEL OUT!!!
Mel said he still can't figure it out. But maybe its the GoodWill.
COOKing the BOOKS to get EBITHA? How do you waist 4 Billion and still show les neg EBITHA? You cook the books!
Wow can this Crook Cook!!!
Vote no Rev Split
Vote NO REV-SPLIT or he will have us shorted again!
Vote NO MORE SHARES or he will delute to the value of toilet water!
KICK MEL OUT!!!
Vote NO REV-SPLIT or he will have us shorted again!
Vote NO MORE SHARES or he will delute to the value of toilet water!
KICK MEL OUT!!!
Mel called the lost $4 Billion "GoodWill"!
Value of XM 18 month before the Merger vs Huge debt the day of the Merger?
A good man would have said no merger. HE could have backed out without any cost! But no, he wanted to controle all Sat Bandwith and also take the company private.
Mel we see what your about now. We were all dooped! Your a nasy stinking CROOK!
Vote NO REV-SPLIT or he will have us shorted again!
Vote NO MORE SHARES or he will delute to the value of toilet water!
KICK MEL OUT!!!
Buffer? Mel said more share are needed for a buffer? Stock holders need some buffer in our bank accounts before we are going to give that crook any buffer!
markbmark 2008
I was in phone contact with Sirius, Patrick Reilly Today; November 6, 2008 who retuned my call for inquiry as to his claim the Michael Hartleib Derivative Case was dismissed. Reilly informed me the case had been dismissed. However, I had to push him hard before he admitted the case was given leave to re-file and that action is pending. Reilly was very misleading in his press release and his response to me. Clearly, Sirius first response has been to cover up the deception with more deception.
After speaking with Reilly, my opinion is the plan for Sirius is to dilute, Rev-Split, and then short their own stock and use the stolen money to buy the company on the cheap and go private or sell. I have spoken to a lot of crooks and wheeler-dealers and Reilly is a spin mastering crook. Sirius is up to no good!
I also called Michael Hartleib today for the first time. After weeks of email I was pleased to finally talk to the "Crazy Uncle" as some have nick named him. After 20 min phone conversation I was spinning in a world full of deception previously unknown to me. People, this guy , Michael Hartleib could put Mel and Company in jail for a very long time.
If Michael Hartleib can get this case into a court and perform just a little discovery, truly life will change for Mel. Michael Hartleib has outstanding hard and factual evidence to show:
1. FCC collusion to dominate SAT bandwidth,
2. Hard facts never released about the Merger that show Mel knew XM would have filed chapter 7 within a few months and the FCC License requirement would have given XM to Sirius at a substantial discount.
3. Hard facts about the $600 million last min financing is the point that the deal should have been stopped to prevent stock holder and company loses. On this issue alone, Michael has a money trail of profiteering and RICO that will put Mel in Jail for years.
4. Hard and court proven evidence that Sirius attempted to evade liability for all of the above by bringing in a professional plaintiff and law firm to bring a class action lawsuit against Sirius (Sued themselves) and agree in an iron clad protection settlement that prevented additional stockholders from suing.
In Mike's spare time, he has traced two trading companies that have been used for massive Naked Short Trading Sirius via offshore and some US holding companies. The investigation continues to point back to Sirius and collusion with GS in a washed money trail. A little discover from a court suit will be interesting indeed.
The true Consumer and Stock Holder Advocate in Sirius is (in my opinion) Mike Hartleib. I owned a large east coast Internet service and was involved and prevailed in a TELCO suit that did not have half the smoke in the gun used by Sirius. Look out Mel, because Mike Hartleib is the mad dog that has a big bite and he will never let go…
Long, very long and deep in Sirius.
Vote NO REV-SPLIT or he will have us shorted again!
Vote NO MORE SHARES or he will delute to the value of toilet water!
KICK MEL OUT!!!
You need to start to pay attention to your grammar man, seriously...
And posting things that you "hear" and is not in written proof does nothing to us... Express your opinions man, don't just constantly vomit this stuff that no one is listening to.... We heard you the first 2,000 you have copied and pasted that same post....
Mike stands up for stock holders and corrects the record.
Stock Holders must see this FOX NEWS video!
www.foxbusiness.com/vi...
I agree
Vote NO REV-SPLIT or he will have us shorted again!
Vote NO MORE SHARES or he will delute to the value of toilet water!
"I lost money, Mel sucks, Screw that the Financial World came to a grinding hault, we had the longest merger in history, and investors are taking their money out of EVERY MARKET, SIRI should still be gaining %20 a DAY!"
LoL I can't believe you guys are preaching what he says....
700 out of 1 mllion... that's going to influence the judge
I'm back to being rational now.
Sorry 'bout that.
Mel Karmazin did not say he would like to take the company private at these levels. He said he would like to take the company private, but at these levels that would be impossible. He would rather get the company in a situation where it was operating at FCF positive and the debt issues were resolved. Then he felt that the company would be attractive on the Market to take it private and get existing shareholders a value for their investment. I must say that I am very surprised at Michael's blunder on a Nationally Syndicated News Org. I wonder why this network gave Michael air time to voice his decent against the company. NAB maybe???
Long Sirius
The numbers released are what I call "magic math", shocking how they could try to replace the GAAP 10Q with a PRESS RELEASE lined with disclaimers and footnotes to cook the numbers.
Can anyone here tell me how our FCC licenses went from a value of ~250M to 2.8B in one quarter?? Can we buy stock in that? ;)
Anyway, I know I am rambling, and have been absent from this board in for a while, but honestly, things have gotten so bad I felt my posting would only rub sand in the wounds so to speak. I broke my heart listening to Mel dodge question after question, and wanting to answer most of them offline. Is that legal? Sounds like the analysts were getting inside info that not even an insider is privy to!!
I am expecting the real numbers to look far worse when the 10Q is actually released. The BS excuse of the federal holiday being the reason for a press release and not a 10Q dlew my mind. Guess Starbux didn't get that "don't have to actually post yet" memo yesterday. I see it as a way to try and buy another couple days to attempt refinancing and CLEARLY is not coming. Really wish we could have heard the plan B.
My take on all of this, PLEASE do NOT AVERAGE down!! I see 0.25c as THE critical line in the sand. 4B new shares * 0.25 = 1B debt paid off. Problem is the debt holders are not going to take the stock at market value, no share selling capital raise happens at market value due to their dilutive nature. Therefore, if the .25 support is broken there is no way to pay off the debt next year. I am on bankruptcy watch this week! You have been warned!!
thesanitycheck.com/
For all those that trust the "bankster's" look at what the Street and our government are about.
what still may happen is dilution to the point of making the stock virtually worthless. if mel can turn another 100 million into shares at 27 and pay off the next 100 out of cash now then the stock has until may to recover for the may debt when we will have had another earnings report to show the way. my bet is that they do just that and that next quarter they are pretty damn close breaking even and can then secure true debt at rate instead of equity.
On Nov 11 08:09 PM Srius_Employee wrote:
> I love how this article makes the CC sound like there was anything
> good to come out of it. It was THE talk today, other than the channel
> lineup change set for tonight when XM and Siri channels merge. Everyone
> listened to the call yesterday at work, and I didn't hear anyone
> that was happy about it.
>
> The numbers released are what I call "magic math", shocking how they
> could try to replace the GAAP 10Q with a PRESS RELEASE lined with
> disclaimers and footnotes to cook the numbers.
>
> Can anyone here tell me how our FCC licenses went from a value of
> ~250M to 2.8B in one quarter?? Can we buy stock in that? ;)
>
> Anyway, I know I am rambling, and have been absent from this board
> in for a while, but honestly, things have gotten so bad I felt my
> posting would only rub sand in the wounds so to speak. I broke my
> heart listening to Mel dodge question after question, and wanting
> to answer most of them offline. Is that legal? Sounds like the
> analysts were getting inside info that not even an insider is privy
> to!!
>
> I am expecting the real numbers to look far worse when the 10Q is
> actually released. The BS excuse of the federal holiday being the
> reason for a press release and not a 10Q dlew my mind. Guess Starbux
> didn't get that "don't have to actually post yet" memo yesterday.
> I see it as a way to try and buy another couple days to attempt refinancing
> and CLEARLY is not coming. Really wish we could have heard the plan
> B.
>
> My take on all of this, PLEASE do NOT AVERAGE down!! I see 0.25c
> as THE critical line in the sand. 4B new shares * 0.25 = 1B debt
> paid off. Problem is the debt holders are not going to take the
> stock at market value, no share selling capital raise happens at
> market value due to their dilutive nature. Therefore, if the .25
> support is broken there is no way to pay off the debt next year.
> I am on bankruptcy watch this week! You have been warned!!
Sorry for your bankruptcy this week, don't really know why warning us here helps, but whatever it takes, man....... Sirius filed its 10Q this morning with the SEC as Mel had said. I did notice that they had put in for a 5 day extension for submission earlier with the SEC, for merger valuation and acquisition costs, but it seems they didn't need it. I would of thought working in the mail room, you would have had access to that information. As far as the FCC license valuation, maybe you could ask your supervisor how they did that.......
The mail room? lol If I was making that little, why would I stay on with a co I thought was on the verge of BK? I know you hate me, but name calling is a bit petty isn't it? I've said it once, and I've said it before, make some money from your investment and than you can but me down all you want. Until then, you are just a bitter guy that can't stand being wrong and losing a ton of cash.