Week In Preview: Keep An Eye On The Fed

Includes: FXE, FXF, UDN, UUP
by: FXstreet

By Richard C. Lee

Although not chock full of economic events, current week's schedule does offer a handful of key releases for the market to deal with. In particular, traders will be eyeing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later on in the week in gauging future monetary policy direction in 2013..

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (December 11th, 5:00am EST)

Expectations are for German investment community sentiment to remain pessimistic in light of recent Greek debt buyback resolutions. Although an improvement to -11.4 from -15.7 is anticipated in the month of December, probabilities are high that figures may disappoint to the downside. Mainly, the tilt is being supported by depressed employment for the eighth straight month and a decline in the country's output.

A below -11.4 print could spell disaster for the euro, particularly against the U.S. dollar. This would place the 1.2850 support figure into focus, with a penetration lower activating lower targets at 1.2750.

Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (December 12th, 12:30pm EST)

Although central bankers aren't expected to augment the benchmark interest rate, they are anticipated to potentially announce additional easing in their last meeting of the year. With the implementation of Operation Twist slowing winding down, it will be interesting to see if Fed policymakers add to already established commitments of buying $40 billion in mortgage bonds a month to keep yields low and credit conditions accommodating. Any further mention of monetary easing for 2013 is likely to lend the greenback some downward pressure.

Swiss National Bank Libor Rate Announcement (December 13th, 3:30am EST)

In the same nature as their U.S. counterparts, Swiss National Bank officials aren't expected to make any particular move in interest rates next week. However, statements regarding the past year's franc intervention will be scrutinized heavily. With officials likely to reiterate their commitment to the 1.2000 EURCHF ceiling, it will be noted if policymakers back off on the pledge of "unlimited" franc purchases. Subsequently, traders will be on the lookout for any mention of a sovereign fund to help mitigate recent franc purchases.

A recommitment to the 1.2000 ceiling would definitively place the 1.2150 resistance barrier into play for EURCHF bulls. The advance is only likely to be support if price action remains above current support at 1.2050.

U.S. Retail Sales (December 13th, 8:30am EST)

One of the more anticipated retail sales reports for the year, the November release is anticipated to show a recovery in consumer spending ahead of the U.S. holiday season. Expectations are for a gain of 0.4%, compared to October's less than spectacular 0.3% decline. Remember, this month's report should show optimistic gains in retail spending following an aggressive Black Friday campaign and could set the U.S. on path for uplifting Q4 results.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.