Why Hasn't Amazon Fallen Yet?

| About: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

Let me start to confessing a mistake.

I got out of Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) about six months ago. I took a fat profit, roughly $50/share, but figured that at $230 it was way overpriced. I went with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) instead.

Since then Amazon is up 15%. It now stands at $253/share. Apple, meanwhile, is down about 8%.

What gives? We can't even talk about a PE ratio with Amazon any more. Since it was break-even in its last quarter, Google lists it at 3,395. Redunkulous, as Jon Gruden would say. Apple, meanwhile, is trading at a PE of 12, which actually trails the median PE of the S&P 500 by about 2.5.

I know what the Apple bears are doing. They're watching for any indication of market saturation, like a Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) sale. They're taking profits. And some analysts, like Jefferies, are taking down their price targets. So, lots of people made a lot of money on Apple, they're taking profits, they wonder what's next for the company and when everyone is in then the exit sign is lit. I get that.

What I don't get is the action in Amazon. It's not like they don't run sales - if you hurry (open the gold box) you can get a Kindle Fire today for $50 off.

The only "excuse" I can see is that people see Amazon as having big market opportunities in front of it. It just opened its full suite in Brazil, we're still in the second inning of the cloud revolution, the company is still one-tenth the size of Wal-Mart, its video service is doing well, and the market changes wrought by the Kindle have not yet come to full flower.

But look. CEO Jeff Bezos just sold $200 million worth of shares. Isn't insider selling supposed to be a bearish indicator - isn't he the ultimate insider? More and more of the people who look at these things for money insist the stock has to fall.

And that may just be it. I'm looking for a new entry point. So are lots of people. We see how the company is well run. We see it expanding its global reach. We get the cloud. We want in. As long as there are folks like me out there who want in, as long as there remains bearish sentiment in Amazon, there's lift in the stock.

It's when the bears at Seeking Alpha throw in the towel that you should start to worry.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.