Analysts Weigh in on Sirius' First Quarter as a Merged Company 94 comments
-
Font Size:
-
Print
- TweetThis
The conference call of Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) is behind us, and analysts are beginning to weigh in with their respective thoughts on the first quarter as a merged satellite radio entity. Among those issuing reports Tuesday were Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Miller Tabak, and JP Morgan.
MERRILL LYNCH
Merrill analyst Jessica Reif Cohen noted that subscriber numbers were light, but that the subscriber issue was mitigated by cost reductions. On the subscriber front, Sirius XM’s gross sub number came in 130,000 short of Merrill estimates. Cohen said that the weaker number was not really a surprise given that the company had already guided down, and that OEM sales have been weak.
The analyst noted that self-pay churn was in line with Merill estimates, as was ARPU which came in at $10.47. On the positive side, Cohen noted that the EBITDA loss of $37mn (includes $27.5mn one-time programming), was $49mn better than MLe $86mn loss. Cohen attributes this to a demonstration by Sirius XM Radio that synergy benefits are real. Cohen stated, “Mel Karmazin, CEO of SIRI, has a history of successful merger integrations, and 3Q08 SIRI results provided some tangible evidence of synergy realization at SIRI.”
Despite a slowdown in retail and OEM sales, SIRI saw cost savings on multiple items: 1) programming; 2) marketing; 3) work force; and 4) product development. Consequently, CY08 EBITDA loss guidance was lowered $50mn to $300mn.
Cohen is maintaining a rating of Underperform, but is encouraged by the “tangible evidence of cost rationalization at such an early juncture, however, we remain concerned over near term headwinds: 1) debt refinancing risk; 2) risk of further dilution if SIRI uses its equity to take out 2009 debt maturities; 3) potential risk to growth assumptions and guidance if the auto and retail channel outlook deteriorates more than anticipated.” The firm is maintaining their 25 cent price target.
GOLDMAN SACHS
Goldman analyst mark Wienkes issued a report Tuesday noting that, “subscriber metrics are missing and financials mixed vs. our estimates.” Wienkes' report states that the company came in at mixed levels versus the Goldman analysis. Specifically:
- Gross subscribers came in at 1,847,000 versus Goldman’s 1,914,000
- Net subscribers came in at 344,000 versus Goldman’s 430,000
- All in churn came in at 2.7% versus Goldman’s 2.6%
- ARPU came in at $10.47 versus Goldman’s $10.82
- SAC came in at $74 versus Goldman’s $91
- Revenue came in at $612.7 million versus Goldman’s $609.8 million
- Loss Per Share came in at $(36.8mn), $(1.93) vs. Goldman’s $(105.1mn) and $(0.13).
Some initial questions Wienkes has are; (1) with just 200k net adds targeted in 4Q, how will the 2009 sub forecast be reached? (2)with 3.25bn shares at 3Q, an uncertain unissued allocation to other securities and + 262.9k recently issued shares in exchange for$90.7mn debt, set against an authorization cap of 4.5bn, what is plan B if shareholders vote “No”? (3) with $360mn of cash at 9/30, current assets (A/R, inventory, distributor receivables and prepaids) of $250mn and current liabilities (A/P, accrued expenses & accrued interest) of $874mn, will the working capital payback be deferred beyond the pending debt maturities?(4 )what is the essence of the new $1.1bn “Deferred credit on executory contracts” and can it benefit the P&L in future periods? (5) do recently provided FCF targets imply satellite launch deferrals and what is the attendant risk? and (6) how will FCF/share estimates change following either more shares or higher interest costs owing to pending refinancings?
MILLER TABAK
Miller Tabak analyst David Joyce issued a report Tuesday regarding Sirius XM Radio’s Q3. Joyce notes, “Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) 3Q08 Revenue & Subs Beat, but 4Q08+ Subs Weaker than Expected. 5-Year Projections Miss on Subs, Revenue In-Line, OIBDA & FCF Above Estimates”
The analyst reiterated a Neutral on SIRI with a short term target of $2, and a long term target of $3.
Joyce noted that Sirius XM Radio pro forma 3Q08 revenue of $613 mm(+16%) was just ahead of their $606 mm and the consensus $608 million. In addition, the Pro forma Adj. Loss from Operations (OIBDA) of $(37) mm was better than their $(74) mm estimate. The pro forma Net Loss of $(217) million matched the Miller Tabak estimate. EPS of $(0.09) matched consensus but was worse than their $(0.07)/sh on a share count average. Negative Free Cash Flow Of $(97.6) million beat their $(161) million estimate.
SIRI ended 3Q08 with 18.920 mm subs, having added a net +344k subs, above our +302k estimate that estimated an 18.87 million total. 1.847 million gross adds were greater than their 1.531 million estimate, but deactivated subs of (1.503) million were also greater than our (1.229) million estimate. Retail net adds were (149)k, worse than their +25k estimate, ending with 9.036 million subs (vs. their 9.144 million estimate). OEM net adds of +492k were far above the Miller Tabak estimate of +279k, finishing with 9.778 million (above their 9.560 million estimate). Rental net adds of 1.3k were below their +4k estimate. Churn of 1.7% was below their 2.2% estimate, ARPU was better than expected at $10.47 vs. their $10.09, and SAC was also better than expected at $74 vs. their $79 mm estimate.
The company provided late last week, for financing presentation and reporting requirements, and again in the earnings press release, long-range projections that should be viewed positively, and could be a reason to consider SIRI a Speculative Buy, but we are reiterating our Neutral recommendation for now as >$900 mm of refinancings, which could cause further dilution, are on the horizon.
JP MORGAN
JP Morgan Barton Crocket issued a report Tuesday relating to the Sirius XM Radio Q3 conference call. The analyst rates Sirius XM Radio as Neutral. Crocket noted that Sirius XM reported an “exceptionally noisy, merger transitional 3Q08 that featured some core metrics that held up OK in the face of a tough macro environment.”
The analyst notes that while the quarter was encouraging, he believes the stock will continue to be driven more by progress toward refinancing $1b of debt due in 2009 than by fundamentals. Currently challenged credit markets provide reason for caution.
Among the concerns listed by Crocket was the OEM conversion rate of 47.0% pro forma, which is 3.7 points below where the company has been. His concern arises because stable OEM conversion rates have been a strong argument for the long-term market opportunity.
Crocket also noted that Sirius XM exited the quarter with $360m of cash and equivalents, and expects to generate positive free cash flow in 4Q08. Importantly, the company anticipates no liquidity issues before the maturity of the Feb 09 converts. The JP Morgan estimates are under review.
Position: Long SIRI
Related Articles
|
Find People on SA
-
The Seeking Alpha 100
See allThe top 100 stock
market authors
selected for publication
Seeking Alpha 100 » -
Fastest Climbers
Authors with the largest
increase in followers
in the last 7 days-
1
David Fry
-
2
Bill Gross
-
3
TraderMark
-
4
Peter Schiff
-
5
Serge Hagopian
Fastest Climbers » -
1
-
Top Commenters
Top commenters,See all
as ranked by their peers
Top Commenters » -
Top Instabloggers
The 100 most activeSee all
Instabloggers.
Top Instabloggers » -
Top StockTalkers
TopSee all
StockTalkers.
Top StockTalkers »
This article has 94 comments:
Just opposite GS is comaring versus GS targets and setting SP to .25
Are they traitors??
GS could have very well put it positively saying that company is still growing in this tough environment and support refinancing by banks or whatever other reasonable means.
P.S THE 4.8B GOODWILL IS A TANGIBLE ASSET, JUST FOR TAX PURPOSES.
VOTE NO TO THE RS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
IF YOU VOTE YES THE SHORTS WILL FEED ON THIS STOCK TIL THERE IS NOTHING LEFT.
Maybe so. Didn't they do that already? Can't they continue to do that if they want anyway? So vote no, pis off management, possibly tie their hands, force their hand to bankruptcy? No thanks. We all got burned on a spec. stock. Sucks to be us. I don't believe there is a conspiracy of any sorts. If you think management and shorts are out to get you then sell.
What makes you think that the shorts will feed on this with a RS??
Your 4 comments in the past and your current comment predicting the BK of SIRI is highly valued on this board... We appreciate all of your facts you have given to concur with your "opinion" even though many of us have given thousands of reasons why SIRI has the best chance or no chance to file BK....
So just tell me again SIRI will file BK and ill believe you, I haven't believed any of the other idiots that come on here and point blank said " SIRI WILL FILE FOR BK IT WAS THEIR PLAN, I TOLD YOU SO" ,, but you my friend, I will believe!!!!!! : D : D : D
$100 a share to be sure you complete the trade. My point is that there seems to have been a suspicious deficit of foresight. I can't believe Sirius had consciously negotiated so many idiotic deals that favored everyone but Sirius. It would be fascinating to know the truth.
We have to vote Yes to a RS in December because in January when the NASDAQ listing requirments are in effect again Mel has to prove that he has a plan to get the stock back above a $1 right then and there in order for NASDAQ to allow the extension.....
So all in all we have to vote Yes so Mel can state this to NASDAQ or we don't get the extension
A RS split will not happen unless the company needs to put it in its extension plan to the NASDAQ for an additional 180 days in Sept 09. They will then have until Dec. 31, 2009 to execute the spit. That is the purpose of the RS.
The additional shares are necessary for the company to be able to perform a RS and still have shares available to finance debt if need be. These are tools for management to run the company during very difficult economic times. No one likes these options, but what is the real choice here?
I know that no one believes that this plan and agenda laid out by management is true. That is the problem here. Going off of NASDAQ makes shares difficult to trade and Forces most Institutions, MM, to close their position because the delisting will trip their criteria for investing money in this company. Combine those two scenarios and where do you think the SP will go, and company, when these folks are racing to get rid of their positions.
Delisting is not an option here. IMHO. I will be voting Yes to items 2 and 3 on the Proxy with my shares, unless something drastically changes between now and the voting deadline. I have not decided yet on board members and I will vote yes on the accounting firm. I choose to put faith in Management's ability to run this company before I put it on the shareholders opposing management at this time. I have not heard one plan from lawsuit supporters to date that would give me any more confidence in their being able to do a better job than the present management team.
More bottom building today so far...
In reading all analyst POV's there is a common thread...whenever the company pulls that refi trigger..the stock will run in a big way. And make no mistake. That is now not only a financial issue but more importantly a cred issue. You read on some that they feel Mel has backed up his words with Q3 numbers. He has one last step to go to really having sentiment change for the foreseeable future...
11/12/08 LIBOR 2.133.
As far as Weinkes. Forget him. Though he was right on this price target, he is also an insider with a company agenda IMO...plus, those concentrating on the ugly deal structure rather than just metrics and "debt due", knew the stock would wind up here. And that's him, so no duh. And you know this by the fact that not one analyst (including him) (or media writers for that matter) EVER ONCE publically cited the hedge short as an issue--it was the elephant and dirty little secret rolled into one. But Weinkes, aside from all his other negativity, IMO was very much focusing on the hedge aspect all along--hence his ALWAYS VERY EARLY calls of 1.00, .50, and .25.
Beyond that, with any average (and esp from here on in, looking up from the bottom), you have to always throw out the lowest and the highest. He's the lowest (in many ways lol)...
Nowhere to go from here but back up into a more normal price scenario.
p.s. I watched that Fox video with M.H. At the end, all I could think of is where is the case? Any accusation defined in that piece is refutable in writing by the company in the 7/30 Supplements. IMHO...
On Nov 12 09:44 AM JOBOCOP wrote:
> MY POINT WAS IF THEY DID A RS 1:10 TODAY, THE STOCK WOULD GO TO $2.50,
> THE THE SHORTS WOULD HAVE MORE ROOM. I SAY WE SHOULD WAIT, GET THE
> RE-FI AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS. GOING PINK IS NOT THE WORST THING IN
> THE WORLD, THE RS IS JUST TO KEEP US ON THE NASDAQ, WE HAVE TIME
> TO RE COOP, DON'T JUST RUN IN AND VOTE FOR THE RS. AND IF IT DID
> HAPPEN, THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES THE RS WILL STOP A BK. LOOK BACK
> AT MARCK 3, 2003 THE STOCK WAS AT .41, IT REBOUNDED WITHOUT A RS.
> IT COULD HAPPEN AGAIN, IMHO
help. 3 bil outstanding becomes 60 mil, then they issue 50-100 mil
more shares, more dilution. The PS becomes worthless.
After PS value plummets private equity comes to buy out, we
will all lose evrything. Nasdaq rule changed. No delisting until
8 mos. after Jan. 16. Mel lied, if there is no RS then delisting.
Fear to get RS for the private takeover. With current revenue
let Sirius ride it out to get $1. If it can't get $1 now, why would
it go higher after RS. Nasdaq reports Sirius highest on market
for short interest. It will get shorted to oblivion. RS, would you trade
a $50 dollar bill for a $1 dollar bill. Vote NO! NO! NO!. They are
liars, really bad people.
A talking head on Squawk this morning said the Fed Auto Industry Loan should be done by later next week...
We can contribute more if we just buy shares in SIRI
But yet they still have shares....
Boggles My Mind
Anyone think that's interesting???
My TD Ameritrade account lets me put fractional cent orders in (cash account), APEX, my Etrade retirement accounts do not. In order for me to get my fractional buys on these accounts, I have to put a buy in at .26, watch level ll on my Ameritrade account and when I see .251 or .252 I execute my Etrade buy at that moment, I was able to average in at .2512 on these accounts. I am afraid that a buy at .25 will not go through today, otherwise....
There has been over 1M shares bid at .25 all day, several lots, and the SP ranch so far is .2502 to .2578 as far as I can see. Etrade seeks best price available at .26 bid. I don't know if that helps or just confuses you more.....LOL
Do you know what price they paid for those shares by any chance? Is there a link to the transaction info??
I'm looking at....
mffais.com
Side note; I was hoping Monday- analyst would ask how much GM stability going forward is tied to the Siri re-financing in 2009. DO they feel confident even with scenario GM bankrupt Siri-XM can still resolve the 2009 debt... (perhaps why Siri mentioned a few times FORD pos conv.)
negatively is because they lie and are not handling the $2.7 bil
revenue with competency. Get rid of these guys and get some
people who can use the $2.7 agaisnt expenses to make a profit
and the stock will rise. Somehow some people won't accept that
the $2.7 is being mis managed or stolen. $2.7 is equal to 1/3
of all film box office receipts for a year. With that much money
management is screwing with the books. They can call something
operating expenses and it's just wasted money. Paying these high
talent fees in these tough times is ridiculous. Cut them back. Cut
the overall expenses on everything and start using the extra savings
tp pay down debt. But they won't do it. They want the PS low for
RS to then go private. I don't see why the wizes can't see that. People
stay in because there is hope we can get rid of the liars and crooks
and bring in people to turn it around and the PS up.
www.bloggingstocks.com.../
I don't like how analyst and people in general say the shareholder would be wiped out is the debt was unloaded onto them.....
The truth is that they would not.... In fact (In this case) I think it would be better to unload the debt onto us for the time being..... Here is my thinking.....
If SIRI turned the upcoming debt onto the shareholders (It doesn't have the be all of it), then that would be doing the same thing as a refinance, except, When analyst look at a debt sheet they see NOTHING, No loans to banks that need to be paid off, No converts that need to be handled, they essentially see nothing.... That's a big posotive for the common shareholder!!!
Then... With SIRI looking POSITIVE CASHFLOW
And last but not least, SIRI is looking to beat their own estimates on Net Subscribers added for the year.....
So in conclusion to my theory... If you unload the debt onto the shareholder temporarily... Given the forward sight of SIRI and the forward looking #'s ... the shareholders would easily be able to gain all that back with the share price after that.....
So I would be willing to lose a litte more of my investment and gain 30x that much back later because we don't have a bank loan to pay back....
I agree. And it could be argued that the current share price is accouting for massive dilution already. I don't think it can get much worse (although I have said that before... many.. many times.).
I agree with you ONLY if things were to work out EXACTLY as you have it planned......
What if it goes in 1 of 1000 different possible directions?
look at the timing of the vote and the timing of everything else going on involving this co.....
In the end, we're handing over our all the power to Mel and HOPING that he has the right intentions & HOPING he doesn't spend money as wildly as he has for the last 4 years,,,,,,& we're HOPING the economy...& we're HOPING the auto's....& we're HOPING................
Not to mention that it won't be "the shareholders" that pay the debt....It will be the OLD shareholders that pay the debt. The NEW shareholders will simply enjoy a profit.
I'm for the dilution & split if it's the last resort....the problem is I won't have a say when it's the last resort or not...I only have a say on Dec 18th...
So I guess I have no choice but to make a last minute decision based on what I know at the time and keep my fingers crossed with my eyes closed.......
I'll tell you this,,,,,,I still believe that for as many reasons as we can think of, Mel, GS, Merrill, the shorts, the bond holders and everyone else BUT US want this dilution & split approved.........given that,,,I don't think the sp is going anywhere........If the sp goes up, then there's no need for the approval.............
And that fact that Mel has been spending money wildly for the past 4 years can't really be relied upon for evidence anymore because those 4 years he was spending money in competition with XM... Now with both companies combined that avenue to burn money isn't there anymore...
Because that's simply what a refinance would be... We would be exchanging this debt for other debt.... And why do you think analysts would let go of the stock then.... They wouldn't until the debt was gone....
If they extend the debt to the shareholders, instead of the bank.... It would be like us giving a loan, and then recieving the interest back as a profit.....
on to shareholders. If there is RS at 50:1 the price will be $12.50.
To get the money back it would have to go to $50. If some one wanted
to recoup at $3 PS it would have to go to $150 PS. What are people thinking. Use your math. RS is to use shareholder money to pay
off debt at the cost of dilution. The PS becomes worthless. It leaves
the door open for private equity. Wake up, it's not for the recovery
of shareholders. Unbelievable. Doesn't anyone understand private
equity wants Sirius because it has a $2.7 bil revenue stream. What
private equity does is strip the money from the Corp. They cut the
costs, expenses, salaries, talent and gut a Corp. all the while the
revenue stream keeps the money flowing into their coffers. They don't
care about what happens to a Corp. They are money predators.
They pick it clean and leave the shell for the rest. Some people
should study the history of private equity takeovers and they would
see Sirius is exactly on the same course. WOW. Don't live in a dream
world they are doing things for the share holders. Here's a few to
think about, Enron, BearStearns, Lehmans, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae.
Where did all the money go. $2.7 bil is a huge amount of cash flow.
And the crooks want it. We have good revenue. RS is a scheme.
NO! NO! NO! NO! ON RS
recover bacIf the stock was going to k above a $1 (w/o RS) SIRI has to unload this debt..... if the SP was going to go above a dollar from here... What makes you think it wouldn't recover from .14 with NO DEBT ????
ON SIRI
MOTHER-......!! YOUR STILL NOT HAPPY YOU 'VE GOT IT DOWN TO .25 CENTS
ANYWAYS GS DOWN ANOTHER 12% TODAY
I'LL HAVE A DRINK ON THAT NOTE
SIRI LONG
you're extremely optimistic and trusting.....
I'm not willing to say I think Mel is a crook and doesn't care about us, but I don't know him and I'm at least concerned..
Dayworker brings valid points against private equity....I'd trust THE GRINCH with Christmas before I trusted ONE DOLLAR in the hands of any corporate executive right now.......
This country is in BIG trouble all because of a few greedy mothers...
and btw, I'd rather have another bank loan going into the future and let SIRI pay it off with earnings!!
Forget about a 50 to 1 split and 8 bil shares,,,,,,,,,do the math on only another 1 bil shares (5.5 bil total) and a 30 to 1 split....................
That means if your in at $2.00 you'll need a $60.00 sp to get even.........
Which would be an almost $11b market cap for SIRI........
NOT HAPPENIN'
How can you justify 7.6 bil shares even if it made it's way to $1.00......
Too many shares for manipilation & sp too low.......
If they dilute,,,,,they'll split...
They are not the same thing.... SIRI can distribute shares w/o RS.....
Thats what i'm trying to say SIRI can double the amount of shares, and the SP will only "Technically" go down to .14 (Doesn't seem like that big of a drop).... Then use the money raised to pay off debt....
Now a debt free SIRI will have no Analysts stabbing them in the throat saying
"You will never be able to pay debt off because you dont make money"
With the debt settled I dont see how the SP would stay at $0.14.....
P.S. in my scenario, I would buy as many shares as i could at .14 to average down at the cheapest price before it begins to recover....
And why would you short a company with
- Positive Cash flow
- Growing Subscriber Base (Where other media Companies are losing)
- No Debt
And all this in the worst Financial Crisis EVER!!! Imagine what would happen in even modest market conditions....
I don't see anyone running to cover
SIRIUS Debt vs XM and XM Holdings Debt
ITEM source
2 1 / 2 % Convertible Notes due 2009 SIRI 299,998,000
8 3 / 4 % Convertible Sub Notes due 2009 SIRI 1,744,000 TOTALS 301,742,000
iTEM SOURCE
Senior Secured Term Loan due 2009 XM 100,000,000
10% Convertible Senior Notes due 2009 XM 400,000,000
Less: discount XM -20,988,000
10% Sr Sec Disc Convrt Notes due 2009 XM 33,249,000
Add: premium XM 47,758,000
Sr Secured Revolv Cred Facility due 2009 XM 250,000,000
Add: premium on Senior XM 239,000
TOTALS 810,258,000
COMBINED 2009 $1,112,000,000
Then nothing in 2010!
3 1 / 4 % Convertible Notes due 2011 SIRI 230,000,000
Senior Secured Term Loan due 2012 SIRI 247,500,000
9 5 / 8 % Senior Notes due 2013 SIRI 500,000,000
and Finally in 2014!
13% Senior Notes due 2014 XM 778,500,000
Less: discount on 13% XM -76,328,000
9.75% Senior Notes due 2014 XM 5,260,000
7% Exch Sr Sub Notes due 2014 XM 550,000,000
leases XM 25,821,000
TOTALS 1,283,253,000
My hope for refinancing the debt in Feb 09 is that, with only $210 M left that the company uses COH at the end of the year to take out $110 M of this debt. Actually I would like Mel to take $127 M and shove it GS' arss, but I digress. Take the remaining $100M and fold it into the May 09 bank facility bringing that to $400 and extending that for 2-3 Years at new rates. In addition, the extension comes with an additional $100M payment, payable on May 1, 2009. And I would like all of this announced before Thanksgiving so that we can benefit through the end of the year this great news. Essentially in on move, Feb 09 debt would be taken out with two payments, one for 110$ M on Feb 1, 09 and the other through its new arrangement with current Banking facilities of $100M on May 1, 2009. Now that neat and tidy and very Optimistic. LOL
congrats on the buy in, lets hope it sticks here for all of us at this point until the good news starts to flow.....
Bababooie
The May debt will be somewhere in there in 2011 or 2012 after they extend it... otherwise cap ex. for the sat launch in the fall also needs to be figured in, but with the slightest auto turn, it will be paid with cash. That's why 2009 FCF is without cap ex spending but after, as I have called it before, 2009: The Year of Debt Resolution, the company should have some breathing room. The Goodwill revaluation is a moot point and food for the negative spin doctors..... it doesn't cost them a thing if they get the debt taken care of....
Your scenario is exactly what I have said recently, I couldn't agree more. They have 350M COH right now. Use at least 100M of it for the Feb and finance 100M or 110M. The company believes in it's prognosticated metrics. They should now act like it vis a vis solving the financing asap. And I like your idea of using existing facility. Obviously there is a relationship already there. I wasn't thinking that way. LIBOR continues to fall. Make the plan and announce it "in short order". Then...cred factor goes way up to The Street AND to shareholders whom they want to approve their Proxy items. They take care of business and shareholders grant them shares and reverse.
Also to everyone regarding rev split. I had always felt, short of any meteoric rise in SP as in 04, they would always do the split in '09. Not for the Nas requirements but to invite in bigger shareholders. IMO, this would have happened no mater what next year, so I wouldn't be so surprised per se. It's the timing with all this other mess that has been the problem.
>>OCT 31 - 285,208,034 OCT 15 - 232,009, 933 + 53,198,101 +22.9% <<
This stock is wound up pretty tight...just waiting. Today's overall market was as expected and I believe again as last week, more setting up for weekly JC tomorrow. Intel just reported badly. I look for down early to finish the run down, then a bounce to finish up a few hundred. I look for a SIRI close about .27/.28.
I finished my buy-in today @ .253.
p.s.. Is anyone as sick as I am of all the media cry babies and "hyperbolists" who are having a whole lotta fun delivering all the bad news/armegeddon info they can get their hands on? It's actually comical! Dillon Ratigan is King Obnoxious!! Watching them so excited to report their versions of armegeddon... lol. What part of down-trend don't they pretend not to understand? All day long they rant and rave about how bad things are (so they must understand it right?), yet every time guidance is lowered or cap ex is cut, it's a surprise headline! Ohhhh, did you hear!!! These people should all go home and lock themselves in their closet! (Jeff Macke!).
The Bears are having a field day!! I love today how the media stopped in their tracks to announce C slipped under $10. DUH!!! They're being shorted into oblivion!! But we can't report it that way...because that would expose the man behind the curtain. All I have to say is for all the chumps crying like babies, there are some who have CLEANED UP on the short side this year. But who ARE those guys? lol
I heard today that the GM loan could be done next week. And speaking of, next week could very well be a great SIRI week. Let's just say...that news hits the wire AND....Mel announces financing details....could happen...
With no disrespect, but I wasn't playing around by selling at .41 and getting back in with an average of .25 and change. I added just under 15K shares and had a few good nights sleep while I waited without adding a dime of new capital. There was a time when that 15K shares would have cost me a pretty hefty chunk of change, which we all paid. I and others have been watching level 2 trading for more than a few weeks and the time is right to get back in now.... even if it goes a few cents lower.
Other than that, I absolutely agree with you regarding the Goodwill as I stated above. Its a non starter in evaluating the company's performance or future.
Congrats also on the buy in ..... Today's SP performance under the general market drop was a good sign that the support is being propped up by IB's friendly to the stock IMO. If these guys holding the line were shorts what would be the point. I think their are a number IB longs that can push back at this point and are.......... we'll see tomorrow. I think the stock drops a little in the am and then finishes where you predict .26-.27. End of the day drop to .25 was good for killerkaul but truly not what I wanted to see. I think the general market will test lows, a little higher than the 7900 maybe, then back up after the support.
No one knows which will happen. My position is watch out for the people
who are trying to sneak up behind us and get the Corp. for pennies on the dollar. People ask why would they short when it's so low. It's just the fact that it is so low that they can keep shorting without a lot a risk. My point is that there are wall street crooks who would like the debt paid off by shareholders buying new issues. Without the debt and driving the PS
down makes it vulnerable to private equity. Which is what they do.
As far as Mel and team, why don't they cut, cut , cut expenses. Mel
can give up his salary, that's $5 mil. Stern can give up $5-10 mil for
a year, Oprah, how much does she need, another $5 mil or so, and Martha, and all the rest, and other exec's. Before long may be you
can save $50- $100 mil. If you don't have to pay it out, then pay down the debt. There's money in the outlay that can pay down debt. Why
don't they show sacrifice and committment. God only knows the
shareholders have sacrificed. How about them. Let them prove Sirius
means something to them. RS, dilution, or new issues means we lose
our money. Stay the course. Revenue stream is good. When their backs
are against the wall the money will show up. NO! NO!NO! RS
Stand your ground men and women. Steel in your spines now laddies
and lassies. There's a storm a blown' and pirates around the corner,
but we got the balls and canons, the revenue stream, my hearty's.
Because you sold over 230K shares of this stock, I know how upset you must be, but to constantly berate those who disagree serves who?? Maybe you should get back in, we all know how bad the market in general is..... everywhere we turn as investors wealth is being squeezed out of our investments.... we, I, may be wrong and this stock goes to zero..... Why do you care if your out..... I know your not trying to save us.... so if your angry at management why be angry at investors who are still in??
SIRI has just spoken...through voice and numbers--which we were all waiting to hear and read. The rest...we try to watch, be diligent, learn and fill in the parts of the picture we don't know. From all of that, decisions have to be made. IMO, everything is on the table and each investor has to interpret the facts (and other) for themselves and make their decisions accordingly. No one here I respect has ever tried to talk someone else into making a decision they didn't want to. What I and others do here is post opinions, trends, logic, facts...all geared toward trying to help manage a successful outcome of this very complex "scenario" during an equally complex timeframe in history.
The recent past for SIRI isn't real pretty and many have been affected negatively. But there are only two options from here. Be bitter or take responsibility and try to make things better--for yourself and maybe others if you happen to help someone through your opinion. That's about all we can control on this. If you look around, you will see many companies that have gotten just totally creamed--either by direct impact or by association and in sympathy. My board today was pretty damn bloody. There is little escape. SIRI @ .25 might look dire, but just look at about almost any (certainly in tech) company that might have been $2 or $3 in June or July. Many are now under a buck to some degree. The shorts have had a field day preying on anyone who has had room to go down--and it's still going. Good companies, bad companies, it doesn't matter. The blood is in the streets and if as a company you were somehow overlooked, you will be next. Anyone is gettable and on the list. Look at GOOG. It's a lynch mob mentality. PIck any sector and look at the stock charts. They all look the same as SIRI--the big downhill slide. SIRI just got to the bottom quicker than the others, but they now have a whole lotta company. No one should lose sight of that. The rest is up to each one of us (and no one else) how we navigate it... IMVHO.
A step in the right direction
I still say , sell or lease the government 2 or 3 channels for a billion bucks , and suture up this wound once and for all
No new shares , No R-S , No debt , No private takeover , No BK ........Nothing but a debt free company that would be profitable .......and all it would cost is 3 lousy channels in exchange for a billion bucks
Time to think outside of the box
I also sold 50% of what I bought at 15 when it hit 16.5 (plus I still have the ones I have at much higher prices). I still like it because I believe they are going to use the money to buy more ships. I guess we will see.
kilerkaul, I would just hate to see the people that have been with SIRI/XMSR for so long get it in the arse.