Sirius Finally Provides Wall Street the Clarity It Demanded 118 comments
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I’m beginning to wonder if my vacation was a good thing or bad. Having taken a sabbatical from all things Sirius (SIRI), I feel like I’ve come back to absolute confusion among our readers and colleagues. Everything I’ve read regarding the recent conference call led me to believe it was another awful show on the part of Sirius XM management. I reluctantly decided to listen for myself.
I have to say that I was pleasantly surprised and I do not understand the negativity surrounding the call! I have followed Sirius for many, many years now, and unlike a lot of people, I have made a lot of money with the stock. None recently of course, but I’m well in the black nonetheless.
This conference call was by far one of the best in years, possibly the best I’ve heard under Mel. Special consideration should be given to David Frear. For years, I, like most of you, listened to Mr. Frear lay out the numbers on a quarterly basis in a monotonous, matter-of-fact manner that lacked any humility whatsoever.
Think back and you may recall waiting as I did for Mel to read his prepared statement and wishing David would stop talking. David was much more interesting this time around. This call was different. David was much more confident in his tone. He was also much more open to visibility, and offered to work with analysts on their models. This has never happened before. It would seem the street has finally beaten Sirius XM into submission. That is good for investors, and is what Wall Street has been asking for since the inception of satellite radio…CLARITY!
Mel Karmazin also did an outstanding job and clearly demonstrated to me that his intent is to bring Sirius XM to its goal of achieving cash flow breakeven in 2009. His willingness to answer questions relating to the 2009 debt refinancing indicates to me that he is fully aware that the current stock price is absolutely dependent on Sirius XM concluding its refinancing needs prior to February.
As an aside, one issue that came up in my absence is the potential for a reverse split and potential dilution. I have read a lot of comments opposed to these issues. For starters, let me assure you, that dilution is already priced into the stock and it has been for months. Analysts have been warning of it in every report for nearly a year now. The market looks forward. The only way Sirius XM could have avoided dilution was to have exceptional sales in the third and fourth quarters of 2008. The auto manufacturing outlook made it clear that this is not going to happen.
That, my friends, is the very reason the stock is trading at a quarter. Speaking of that fact, have you looked at your position in SIRI lately? Not wanting a reverse split now seems ludicrous to me. Sirius has too many shares outstanding which allows the naked shorts to run rampant all over it. Sirius is the most shorted stock on the NASDAQ and also had the greatest increase in its short position than any other NASDAQ listed stock.
The reason that Google (GOOG) for instance, will not split its stock is that a high stock price gives the appearance of greater value. The same goes for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). It is for that very reason that Sirius should do a reverse split. It would also allow hundreds if not thousands of mutual funds to purchase Sirius shares. I would personally rather own 10000 shares at 10.00 a share than 400000 shares at 25 cents. As shareholders, we have to support the company in its decision making or dare I say it, risk going the way of Lehman Brothers.
Position: Long SIRI
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This article has 118 comments:
It would be a good thing to issue a reverse split, espeically once SiriusXM starts posting positive EPS as growth will be more visable on an earnings per share basis.
Also, all this nonsense about dilution of shares if they do not get the refinancing done is a non-issue. In the long run, it doesn't matter how the `09 debt gets settled, it just determines where the liability shows up on the books. (In other words, future cash can be used to pay off debt or buyback shares)
Finance 101 tells you it's all about cash flow. That is the only metric long term investors should be concerned with. The latest conference call suggests SiriusXM is very close to being operationally cash flow breakeven.
There is alot of emotion and price manipulation surrounding this stock, patience will reward the long term holders.
On Nov 13 03:15 AM User 297255 wrote:
> Good article. People need to understand that a company's valuation
> is based on market cap, not stock price. The stock is trading at
> nearly a third of its foward sales, boasts excellent growth, and
> is a genuine market changer.
>
> It would be a good thing to issue a reverse split, espeically once
> SiriusXM starts posting positive EPS as growth will be more visable
> on an earnings per share basis.
>
> Also, all this nonsense about dilution of shares if they do not get
> the refinancing done is a non-issue. In the long run, it doesn't
> matter how the `09 debt gets settled, it just determines where the
> liability shows up on the books. (In other words, future cash can
> be used to pay off debt or buyback shares)
>
> Finance 101 tells you it's all about cash flow. That is the only
> metric long term investors should be concerned with. The latest conference
> call suggests SiriusXM is very close to being operationally cash
> flow breakeven.
>
> There is alot of emotion and price manipulation surrounding this
> stock, patience will reward the long term holders.
Come on...you wouldn't want me to marry your mom and say after 30 years..."hun...i gotta split now....times are hard, i'm low on cash, the kids all grown up and working, you're old and ugly,...thanks for the memories"...what kind of signal are we sending to the markets? f#!@$#^%^% the long term boys?
Realise the importance of long term holders please.
The bottom line is if SIRI RS's 1:100 then the market cap is the same at $3 as it is at $300. People buy value not stock price and right now people are afraid that there will be no value in SIRI going forward that is why it is trading at $0.25.
Paul
Long Sirius
This companys SP didnt like the quarter report. In fact, id say it hated it. So that news doesnt help. If a good quarter doesnt help , what makes people think resolving debt will? Im not convinced anything will help this stock. Never seen a stock with such high volume behave the way this stock has at these prices.
By the way, there is one more thing: where is Vicar of Value? I miss him;
if nothing else, he was amusing as he did offer comic relief....
Scot's Slant
I understand Sirius' historical rebounds, however, there has never been an instance where they were in the midst of a total economic meltdown. Don't overlook this very important factor. The only thing worse is total global annihilation by an alien attack from outer space.
I am not for the RS but I don't have a problem with them having it their tool box of items the company through 2009. Mel said it would be to avoid delisting and that is importan. Mel state earlier that he does not see any value added to just doing a RS and I agree. A buy back program would be better announced and then implemented in 2010 when no debt is due.
Resolving debt in 2009 is the "Only" issue keeping the price of the stock under $1. Questions like how much dillution? Will their be another Convertible Bond with Arbitrage (shorting shares) done? How much will it cost to move the Bank Facility and $350 out in May 09? How are they going to get rid of the $400M Convertibles in Dec 1, 2009? Are they going to push out the Launch of the Satellite due in Sept, 09, which still needs additional cap ex funds? These are serious questions regarding this company's ability to perform and meet its pre cap ex FCF guidance of $300M in 4Q 2009. Along with a host of Partner Questions about the Auto Industry is their any question, with a forward looking Wall Street, that dilution of this stock's price isn't taking worst case into consideration? I think not.
Relmor my friend using COSI as an example to compare, with less shares outstanding than SIRI trades in 1 day is not a good example. If COSI did a 1 for 10 their would be 4M shares left to trade. The other symbol I'm not sure of, if it is Sanmina Sci, they have .5 B shares outstanding, also not a good example and Symantec is trading at $12 and change so why would they?
The issue is DEBT and ability to maintain Revenue Growth. With both these issues answered, the company resolving debt and the auto makers getting a bail out, The Street will look differently at this company. IMHO
It steadily continued to go in the toilet , and is now @ 1.29 or a before split price of .12 cents
So Brandon , please don't spew non-sense about Siri will be harder to short after a R-S
However , turning a profit is key at this point .......get out of the red , and investors may jump in and Siri climbs
The ONLY thing that matters now , is to stop losing money .....and if Siri continues to lose money , it will continue to get shorted into oblivion ...no matter what .....
Sell / Lease the government 2-3 channels for a billion bucks , and end this nightmare once and for all , with NO RS , and NO DILUTION needed
THIS IS A NO - BRAINER
If it gets authorized ....it's a done deal
Whether or not the outcome is good or bad for us is debateable .....but , it WILL happen because it is a means to raise new capital ......ya think Mel's gonna pass on some new money comin' in ???????
To be fair in comparing companies that have undergone RS's, conexant also is not a good example. It has had declining revenues for the last 3 years and has 1/3 less cash on hand than it did 3 years ago. Also after the RS it has 50M shares outstanding and SHORT position of .74% of its float. Again this is not a good comparison. This is a semiconductor company with declining market condition (small margins), cash, and business advantage. The stock is not going down because it is being Shorted again, its going down because it has a bad business model and no value. Again I am not saying I am for the RS, but these examples need to be truly comparative. We could just take a list of BK companies and work our way back through the process and a RS will probably be what happened right before the filing for protection.
Apologies to Paul Henning!
Come and listen to a story about a man named Mel
A rich CEO, who watched as his stock price fell,
Then one day he was shootin at a split,
And up through the stockholders came someone screaming “BullS4it”.
Hartleib that is, Crazy Uncle, First name Michael.
Well the first thing you know ol Mel's a Plantiff in a suit,
Kinfolk said "Mel, We think the point is moot"
Said "Dilution is the best to put us in the black"
So he let out little hints that got to Goldman Sach(s).
Wienkes, that is. Office pools, Comparing Sirius to Cars.
. . . . .
The song's not over, Until the Fat Lady sings!!
SIRI-XM can afford to lease a few channels without affecting its normal programming. Surely there are some companies/entities there that want to broadcast on satellite but don't have the financial capability.
Now I can't get that tune out of my head.... thanks a lot.... LOL
I'm new to all this (deployed soldier) I figured I'd put some money into market after it fell down to help it get back up. I intend on holding my shares for a few years.
De-listing is always a possibility down the line. A reverse split while it may have generally negative connotations may be needed. It should not be a problem if they can avoid it before they have better financials to report. A rising company will likely be forgiven more than a declining company.
Sirius was caught in a "Perfect Storm" of the Hell of FCC approval, the shorts running wild and now horrible market conditions. To my way of thinking they are trying to thread not just one needle but a moving line of needles. I think that they are doing as well as anyone possibly could under the circumstances.
I'll hang in there beacuse I love the product and, at this point have little more to lose. Relmor, Why are you still in there?
SIRI has debt refinancing issues to deal with and the lending market is difficult right now. Will it get better before they need to re-fi or not? Who knows. SIRI will hurt the share price if they are forced to sell more shares because they can't get attractive financing terms. The terms they can get are affected by company performance. They are starting to demonstrate that their financials can and are getting better, even in this dreadful economy, assuming that things don't get much worse.
There is also a danger of NASDAQ de-listing as the share price is under $1.00. A reverse split is one solution and some people are quite agitated about it thinking (I believe) that it will raise the share price only to be driven down again by the shorts. I doubt this will happen (opinion). A reverse split does not affect the value of your investment but often has a negative connotation because is always pursued by companies with share prices "in the toilet", so to speak.
Diluting of the stock by the company issuing more shares does hurt share price but some think that this is inevitable and, therefore already priced in to the current stock price. Being able to sell more stock does give the company more leverage in it's upcoming debt refinancing discussions.
This is my understanding of the basic SIRI situation. I hope it helps. If I am wrong, please correct me.
Let me get this straight.
No one cares anymore about the Merger mandates
3 year Price freeze (ON GOING with 2 year 9 months left)
Ala Carte availability (DONE DEAL!! . . BEST-OF!)
4% NonComercial
4% Qualified Entity availibility
9 months to acheive interoperable receivers (Mike H. wants it now!)
Just Stirrin the pot!!
1. Brandon. You would have done well ending your article after your take on the CC. You are correct, that it was an impressive presentation and finally portrayed management in a way that they were in control. Most subsequent analyst reports confirmed this. As some have said here including me, we are down to one thing and one thing only--and it's not months more of conjecture, having volitile Proxy's slipped under the door, or reading about rogue public appearances, etc..(we've been there and done that schtick). IT IS about real-time, "SHORT ORDER" performance and absolute clarity regarding DEBT ISSUES. At this point that is the most important metric by which this company is being judged. Cos1000 said it right, we need to hear at least the layout and intentions of the proclamated "in short order" refi plans by T-Giving (if not the first week of December the latest). If we do not, I will at least consider that a step backward. Now that the earnings blackout is removed, the company will have no excuses for not communicating what they know the whole financial world is waiting to hear. Whatever it is, whichever way they are planning to go, we want to hear it in that stated "short order." Anything else is irrelevant from this side, IMO.
2. Brandon your take on the rev split and its subsequent valuation couldn't be further off the mark. You might rather buy 10,000shares over 400,000shares but guess what dude? The relative value of the stock at the higher price is NO DIFFERENT than from whence it came my friend. If you reverse a stock at a quarter, it's still a quarter at a higher price. No more, no less--you're still buying that same quarter just in a different config. So for you to say that will instantly have MF's and such salivating to buy, is WAY off. What do you think is happening right now in the entire market? Some people are screaming "hey, stocks are cheap at these levels!" And they are. But people are still on the sidelines because they are unsure of the valuation. Is it cheap here or should it be even cheaper. So to answer other questions here about why the shorts move in after a split is because they know they are still looking at a .25 stock but with a tremendous new downside relative to THEIR NEW BASIS POINT. Shorts could care less about the true valuation or that it used to be a quarter. The new buy-in price is all that matters and that IS WHAT HAS CHANGED. And that = dollar signs! Now they can take the stock once again back down to .25 (which would then be the equivalent if it were still in "quarter land" of something sub penny, like .0002 or whatever the real math is. Also at the higher price, you then invite in regular joes like us who can't short anything under $5. No Brandon, if you rev split at a quarter, you have just opened the WRONG DOOR. JUST LIKE FROM HERE @ ,25, the only thing that will make any stock go higher is COMPANY PERFORMANCE. So you see, other than needing to make a NAS 1.00 requirement, there is little reason for a bad or struggling company to reverse. If nothing is changing within the company for the better, your a dead company either way. You might as well just delist and go trade on BB until you get your sh%t together. Then with your stuff straightened out, stock price stable and solidly over a buck, reapply to NAS. This other reverse to stay listed is just monkey biz and will only further hurt shareholders. Period!! So that means for SIRI...they need to be concerned not about reversing to make it back over a buck, they need to make that happen BEFORE THEY REVERSE--on MERITS. They need to show positive signs in the stock. Signs of vitality, signs that people want to own it becaue of good decisions they are making (for all and yes, INCLUDING SHAREHOLDERS). Then, once back over a buck, and only then, should a reverse be considered for the reasons you stated. That has always been my take on the reverse issue. Mel said that was on the table for "later" to Cramer. In that situation, let's say they could ony get back to the original revaluation if $1.50 or approximate. Then, sometime next year, they could consider a reverse, to as you say attract new investors. And in that case, it's a positive and people will perceive it as such. I can guarantee you this. If they try to reverse this stock at .25, there wil be a significant take down on the other side. No questions asked. Simple as that. As cos1000 also accurately says, if its a positive tool in the tool box, and used responsibly, it works. If it's used as an act of flailing desperation without a clue, it will be your worst nightmare. I hope this clears things up for people because this is really how it works. You're either a righteous company or you're not. The top Wall Street exchanges are only for successful companies and acts of desparation or thin veils of deception are never rewarded--you will be called out. They would rather crucify you and have you leave and go elsewhere (and there are other places to go for those companies who are playing games and doing shennanigans, that's the point).
So that leaves number 3.
3. Siri_Investor stated it right out of the gate, Cos1000 has said it. Use some cash, finance the rest through a BANK facility and show the world you believe in yourself. You will be surprised how that will bring people back and raise the water line significantly.
IMHO...
If Mel refinances
(Especially now when it would not most likely not be on our terms)
What would stop analysts and investors from posting about the new debt SIRI got itself into. And by doing that, keeping this stock this low???
( When it would most likely not be on our terms)
President bush is speaking.... Look at the DOW go!
READ THIS...
Forget about convincing people to vote for this or that. They will vote their conscience and it will be based on company performance.
Shareholders are right now waiting with baited breath for "short order" (as stated by CEO Mel Karmazin) POSITIVE moves from the company regarding the Feb 09 debt. We would like to see the company use some cash on the balance sheet (maybe 100M) and the rest via a legitiimate lending facility loan (110M). LIBOR was 2.133 yesterday. Today it's up to 2.147. It is doubtful it will go much lower than this area considering all else that is swirling around. We ask the company to take advantage of current rates (that have now been cut in half from their locked position of over 4.0), pull the trigger and resolve this short-term debt issue post haste. Concentrate on that, not swaying voters minds. Focus on performance, the rest will follow.
Thank you.
The BEST thing this company can do forthwith to show their legitimacy, is to do a part cash, part financed deal to take out Feb 09 convert. If they do this, they will stop being the joke of Wall Street and show they are serious about surviving--the right way. And in doing so, it will be a step toward getting back over a buck organically (which they also must do). They MUST do this to show any signs of legitimacy to the Street, shareholders, everybody (which is all either of us are looking for). That's just how it is. They ran down and diluted the stock to accomplish a goal. OK. That's done. Now take necessary steps to run it back up and go from there. I wil call that an even trade. Nothing else will do. Plus, all, including the company, will see how far that move will take them.
Using further shares to deal with debt now is not only a cowards way out but they will be crucified for doing so. My yes vote for the further shares is only contingent upon this deal getting done prior to the meeting. That is the only way the company can prove to me they are up and up.
Ha, it's funny because you and cos have been explaining that plan with numbers and everything this whole time....l And there you explained it in 2 sentences and now I understand it better : P
I see how your plan works out.... And I know that you and cos and many others have the same idea... so that's cool... Thanks for the clarity !
go to mffais.com
SIRI: Sirius Xm Radio Inc
Rankings
Number of funds Global Rank Country Rank Industry Rank
Owned: 337 (funds that own SIRI)
Brand New: 57
Increased Existing: 91
No Change: 50
Reduced Existing: 52
Liquidated: 65
No Comparison Available: 22
Funds buying shares: 148
Buying %: 46.98 %
Funds not buying/selling shares: 50
Neutral %: 15.87 %
Funds selling shares: 117
Selling %: 37.14 %
I took into consideration the funds that have bought and sold SIRI..Since 10/30/08, the number came to "about" 300+ million shares have been added to mutual funds (net).
And just as a note, I looked at the detail of the funds that have recently sold their positions of SIRI. For the most part, those funds sold most of their portfolio. Which I assume that their sale didn't have as much to do w/ SIRI as it did their own personal issues.....
great info...thanks.
TMA, Thornburg Mortgage is not even close to an example that would compare to Sirius. Sirius is an on going enterprise, growing in subscribers and net revenue, with a challenging year ahead.
TMA , Thornburg Mortgage is a leading single-family residential mortgage lender focused principally on prime and super-prime borrowers seeking jumbo and super-jumbo adjustable-rate mortgages.
On Sept 26, 2008 they did a 1 for 10 reverse split of their stock and on October 1, 2008 they paid their Senior Subordinate 18% interest payment, upon consent from the note holders, ADDITIONAL NOTES at 18% in lieu of a cash interest payment. Why do you think the SP has fallen. By the way your comparing a company that had 318M sh prior to RS and now has 31.8M shares after and a short interest of only 7% compared to Sirius' 9%.
s162, WTMBS?
if we can only now get the company to execute our plan... LOL
It only added 127,996 shares but it brought it's total position to over 82 mil shares...
What's even more interesting about Barclays is that they have been selling shares in what looks like 70% or more of the stocks they won....
But they bought more SIRI..................
Did we call this one or what? And we got a gift to boot. Actually took out both the S&P and NAS Oct 10 lows WOW!! (we didn't take out the Dow but came very close)! This only bodes even better for the short-term future making a higher high in the "range". I think because of the new lows and the incedible pop, we could see a break of 10K next week (or even a little higher dare I say). This now a tripple retest and should tip the scales for more sideline money to comback in long....should be the final retest down this low for a while...
I look for a SIRI close about .27/.28.
not a bad call at all.....
with all due respect, the reverse for TMA was desperation not delisting. The SP range is $.60 - $140 and could go BK any day. Shorts have been having their day with financial institutions. Today the short interest in this company is only 11% even the shorts are afraid of this one. Their paying equity note holders with more notes..... As I have said many times today, I am not in favor of Sirius' Management Doing a RS, but TMA is not even close to being in the same game as Sirius.
Commented on:
Finally Some Good News for Sirius Shareholders
I will say this again for those who have been trying to ignore me.....
If we vote YES to the distribution of shares AND the RS..... (No matter how much you guys think it is the wrong thing to do)
-- The company will be able to pay off it's debt with out getting into another DEBT DEAL with another bank... (It will be SCOTT FREE!)
-- Then SIRI RS... The price goes up to about $5 - $10 /S....
Now I know you guys will bombard me with
"IT WILL BE SHORTED BACK TO NOTHING" or....
"IT WILL DESTROY THE LONG INVESTORS!"
But hear me out.....
Now with a SIRI/XM that is debt free....
Trading around $5 - $10 / Share
A shit load fewer shares outstanding
Positive cash flow that we are so close to getting
And increasing subscriber base....
A.) What makes you think that there will be people who even DARE to TRY to short this stock back down....
B.) What makes you think that this stock will not rise to the occasion ???
(I truly believe this stock can easily survive a RS... There are so many shares outstanding for the size of this company that it makes sense even w/o this share price)
----------------------... LONG SIRI ----------------------...
Still got that song in your head??
LOL
bought at?
168,511,353 is quite few shares
491,606,618 shares posted with an average in at .9683 for funds with disclosed current value & value change
formula I used was
(Current Value - Value Change) / Number of Shares
example:
Apollo Management Iv Lp
(22,964,464.00 - (-108,392,271)) / 91,857,857
(131,356,735) / 91,857,857
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PPS = $ 1.43
BTW. . I noticed Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc
at 6,459,223 shares 1.38 average buy-in!
LOL
Institutions NEED the stock to be at least this price, unless they are using the stock as a tax write off.
Hollywood.... cee ... ment ponds,.... movie stars.... No, No, No .... I got it under control now....
With the Ameriprise transaction dated 11/10/08, I thought it might be the 42M of equity debt due Feb 09, at .25 or just under... Not able to confirm that though. Up until the CC I had though only 50M had been taken care of .... then Mel said there was only 210M left.... should be filed with the SEC if they were equity holders.......
A: At the time and day of their choosing. We will not know when the decision is going to be made to unwind any major short positions, which will then beget more major covering. It could be related to any number of factors including those not seemingly tied to major company or market news. So basically no one really knows...IMHO...
Hope ye be staying warm...looking at the chart...believe we are dangerously close to a signif. move, if not at least semi signif...could start the way back...Think I'll round up my climbing gear....
happy trades...
hmmmm....
another good day and we didn't break down when the market did..... didn't break upward either..... SP is just a little lighter than air and the manipulators are in full control right now, slowly drifting upward...... Holding at these levels at Fridays close or a little higher going into the weekend will make me feel a little more confident about direction..... I'm agreeing with s162 in how it feels, I'm just in a little more of a "show me" state of mind right now.....
I thought I needed to cut back to just two jobs, and find another way to make money, so I lent money to others who promised returns on the loans, but I never saw the returns or any of my money back. So, I thought the market would be safe, and got into it last year (junior), but had bought one stock in high school for yucks with my savings. That stock just saw it's 2ND R/S this year, and now the price has to climb to $600 for me to sell and break even. ha. yeah, that'll happen.
All of it's really a hard lesson learned. I sold my furniture this past spring, so getting really tired of sleeping on a blanket on the floor and eating popcorn and cream-of -wheat every day to make sure I have rent money, while I see the news about CEO's of failed companies who were getting paid $$ tens of millions in salaries, and now the government wants me to pay more to bail THEM out????
I'm tired of these CEO's bleeding me. What will I do when the student loans come calling after this year? Why don't Mel and Howard Stern loan money to this company they "love" so much? So far, I have to say this split isnt looking like a good idea.
Mike H. personally wrote a letter to Mel back in May 07, Mike asked Sirius to investigate.
Mike said, " I have obtained information through the Freedom of Information Act issued by the S.E.C. and other sources, that strongly suggests manipulation in Sirius shares and violations of Federal Securities Law. In speaking with Investor Relations, I have been told it is not the Company's responsibility to monitor the trading of the Company shares but instead, is the responsibility of the regulators. I disagree and believe the Company has a fiduciary responsibility to protect the interest of its shareholders. I cite the pending Overstock.com, Inc. et al v Morgan Stanley & Co, Incorporated et al litigation filed on behalf of Overstock and its shareholders (Superior Court of the State of California – Case #CGC-07-460147). I believe this case sets a precedent for companies such as Overstock to protect their shareholders and preserve the integrity of their shares. Overstock and its shareholders have seen nearly a forty percent increase in share price since the Complaint was filed. "
wtf?
at 25 cents, or again 850 million MARKET CAP, the stock is trading at about 1 times Annual Revenue. This is equivalent to other subscription services such as Time Warner Cable and twice as expensive as another one, Dish Networks. How much growth is there left? With the current model, I think it's getting pretty saturated.
However, the positives would be expanding their service to offer:
more video channels, in HD
Internet Access via satellite
GPS
I think they have GPS integration in some models of XM
Also, they should have more commercials, or find other ways to monetize---!!! perhaps having DAILY sponsors, these are good ideas and this is sober analysis, a lot of comments here are EMOTIONAL and thus asanine and unfit for making good investment decisons, case in point, sirius from 2.50 to 25 has obviously not been a good investment in the curent climate, this Sirius Buzz, and these dumb f--ks pumping these stocks should not be looked to for advice..nor your Sirius support group buddies
Just my 2 cents, but good luck with your speculation
SYNM...Syntroleum Corp..
My point with the RS is for ANY company under $1. I dont care how many shares they have. Irrelevant to their delisting conditions. They need to trade over $1, but companies like these will be when the market corrects, and NASDAQ knows that, so they wait. Sirius isnt the same. They are technically bankrupt many times over, just given money by banks and bondholders at an alarming rate over the years. Almost like past promises were having to be kept still to this date. Sirius might have sold their sole a LONG TIME AGO to still be in business today, to meet cash flow positive finally. The common stock may have been doomed 3 years or more ago, its just finally hitting the common now, at the cusp of its greatest financial debt requirements. NOw its, do we save the company or the stockholder? What????? Thats a retarded sentiment, and ive heard it much too often here. If you save the company, EVENTUALLY you save the stockholder. I think Sirius would trade with the markets if a RS went into effect, and they were debt free. That would be better than trading down, every week since the merger. Would the shorts come back? No, why would they? Unless they just dont like Sirius and they are wanting to take it out, thinking their cash flow postitive is temporary, and the business model is finished. But by selling shares for debt, wouldnt that be oppositive of the logic in the action? They just sold debt for equity, so now the equity is worth less? Im not so sure about that. I think future stockholders in this company may do much better than us.
Following questions come to mind if the it is after the proxy.
1. If approved then sincerely try to get financing till the last moment before going for minimum RS and dilution.
2. Since Mel mentioned to take the company private then just after the approval go for dilution and RS (too BAD).
-why throw it to us- they are the one who screwed up!
havent read this theory
Well I guess one difference btwn the two is that TMA made money hand over fist for many many years prior to their squeeze....
Why do you say it's "not even close" to a SIRI comparison?
On Nov 13 03:44 PM cos1000 wrote:
> wcorowitz
>
> TMA, Thornburg Mortgage is not even close to an example that would
> compare to Sirius. Sirius is an on going enterprise, growing in subscribers
> and net revenue, with a challenging year ahead.
>
> TMA , Thornburg Mortgage is a leading single-family residential mortgage
> lender focused principally on prime and super-prime borrowers seeking
> jumbo and super-jumbo adjustable-rate mortgages.
>
> On Sept 26, 2008 they did a 1 for 10 reverse split of their stock
> and on October 1, 2008 they paid their Senior Subordinate 18% interest
> payment, upon consent from the note holders, ADDITIONAL NOTES at
> 18% in lieu of a cash interest payment. Why do you think the SP has
> fallen. By the way your comparing a company that had 318M sh prior
> to RS and now has 31.8M shares after and a short interest of only
> 7% compared to Sirius' 9%.
Over 50 million (net) shares of SIRI were added to mutual funds YESTERDAY......
sorry but you wrote:
Why doest SYMN or COSI R/S? Because its a joke too. And its only done when your company is going bankrupt(to delay the inevitable).
SYNM is as you say.......
why do you bother at this point.... I agree your the debt master..... TMA is on its way to TARP or some other consolidation.... pick a company that at least sells something tangible..... entertains someone somewhere..... and has close to the same amount of shares outstanding or market cap ...... or else who cares??? certainly not me..... don't even understand your point, what RS or not, yes or no, if it keeps the company from being delisted then I vote yes.... Go read TMA's 3rd Q report ..... then come back and tell me how they have so much in common....
was on the road today...... looked like a day in London, fog..... drizzle and damp.... not even a good breeze off the Atlantic.... They tell me the Canadians are going to help us out with a good chill, a little wind from the Arctic, just to clear the air here.... My Pat's put up a good fight last night, but in the end, Brett from Green Bay, taught them why the Jets said 40 somthin is young, and he's gonna give them (punk arse Jets) another chance to prove their worth, here, when the snow starts to blow........ in December.... hope you had a good day and keep that climbing gear in the ready.... but I think there's still time for the nay sayers to have some fun.....
TMA: $140 -.66 in the last year SP's spread, RS on 9/26/2008 at 1 for 10, 5 days later paid their interest payment with more notes (not new shares), at 18%, no merger, sub prime borrowers are TMA's primary market, focused on ARM mortgages, doesn't even resemble Sirius' business model. Similar because they have debt coming due??? Sirius used shares so far to pay their 2009 Feb debt (dilution of the common, not a RS and then payment with paper), and will use some configuration of Cash, Bank Facility, or Convertible Bond, maybe, but doubtful for the rest. Sirius revenues growing, but granted, if GM, Ford, and Chrysler fail, so won't Sirius. What? Are they comparable because they are a distressed company right now? Why not compare them to Citi, GE, DSX, EXON, LDK, or any number of companies that are down 40%, to be kind... Back off on this company.......... There are so many other "Whipping Boys" out there..... Why is Sirius XM Radio your favorite, Red Headed, Step Child to take to the Wood Shed??? You guys are amazing....
Buy the way I have a Red Headed step child, and she is one of the most precious people in my life... Talented..... Well Educated..... Brilliant in her tolerance for me.... and her compassion for the ignorance of others.... Unlike myself.... but she is teaching me..... and I am hoping that its not to late for me to Learn......
What do you make of the drop in share volume over the last several days.
With increase of 50M shares to Mutual funds, as noted above...calm before the storm?
Your post is truely an enigma...mostly with regard to your reason for posting. But let's review your opinion...
1. New car sales are dead
2. The consumer is dead
3. You hate the commercials
4. You cancelled your subscription
5. SIRI's future is a joke
6. You're not sure what SIRI's cash burn rate is
Thanks for stopping by. Obviously this will be your last post. Given the above, and now that you've aprised everyone, no real reason for any more from you, right? Have a good one and enjoy your terrestrial radio...
IMO the lower volume is a great thing during this bottoming process. It's been a great set of 9 trading days--unlike any other set since the revalue. Decreasing volume on steady prices...esp. after the Q...Sentiment in general has turned much more even to positive (esp. MSM)...stay tuned...
A few buys/new holdings stand out:
Credit Suisse...Added More 1,450,681
Citigroup...Added More 3,531,004
Merrill...Added More 934,037
Northern Trust...Added More 5,848,527
Oppenheimer And Co Inc...Added More 181,071 (increased their position by over 50%)
Ubs Ag...Added More 1,292,105 (increased position from 650,000)
This new holding...United States Steel And Carnegie Pension Fd 11,243,320
This new holding (and who is largely a VALUE fund)...Schneider Capital Management Corp 16,828,471
California Public Employees Retirement System (this one added to 4M position) 10,761,346
New holding Northern Trust Co Of Connecticut...761,560
Tcw Group Inc (A HUGE MF)...Added More 8,581,278 (added over 50% to position)
State Of Wisconsin Investment Board...New Holding 1,278,576
Pretty impressive stuff....
Another good week for SIRI...the tide is slowly turning. Have a good weekend...
For those that still dont get it, the Feb. converts are not even a issue anymore (nor should they have ever been). You know why just wait to see the mounds of FCF the combined company comes in with in the 4th quarter (I estimate it will be between 200 and 230 million). I know many may ask I do I come up with such a large amount, that is easy for anyone that has followed the companies metrics for the last few years. 4th Q 2006 SIRIand XMSR each had around 30 million. 4th Q 2007 SIRI had 83 million and XMSR did not have any but had a satellite they paid off in the range of 85 million in that quarter, they dont have that payment this year. Now being conservative and NOT taking any savings that they are going to have from the merger, it is easy to see that both should have an additional 17 million in FCF this year. That 17 million is only adding a third of what they had in additional FCF from 2006 to 2007 which was about 53 million. Now some may ask why is this so important, well that is simple because if you add the around 200 million from 4th Q to the around 370 million they have on hand now you get at least 570 million. That also does not include the 120 million XMSR has in escrow with the MLB. 570 million is enough to take out the Feb. converts that is left and the May credit due. That is all, mind you if they dont get anymore financing for the Feb. converts and if they cant get any of the credit facilities extended (very unlikely because most will extend). Now that means no launch of that satellite in the Fall and Mel has already said they will be at breakeven without it, so no more cash is needed. That then leaves the Dec. converts, those are the only thing anyone should be concerned about at this time when it comes to the debt due in 2009.
P.S. It is something I have said for the longest time and cannot understand why it is such a confusing issue for most.
double cheese burger.........$1
small fries....................
4 piece chicken nuggets.....$1
2 apple pies.....................
small drink....................
4 shares sirius-xm................
and all happy meals now available with toy or 4 shares sirius-xm
thanks again for your outstanding, informative posts. they help to keep us informed.
s162
you could be right with the down volume being a good indicator of a turning point here. As I told killerkaul, I am still too cautious to interpret low volume as anything other than a sign that momentum down has been broken for the time being. Breaking downward momentum is monumental to an upward sentiment, but needs to be executed over the next few days with some increased volume. Otherwise its just sideways and hopefully bottoming. The longer we go sideways the less positive it becomes, especially with low volume. Any positive refinancing news will cement the direction. Weak volume indicates indecision and the POTENTIAL for a turn in direction. Next week will show they will show their intent..... IMHO
163888
I know you have said it all before.... , but repetition and continued company execution, makes us all believers and profitable in the long run... good to have you back in the conversation.....
I cannot deny that I enjoy watching Bret bring new life to the Jets. He brings a level of discipline and maturity in QB position that has been lacking for years and he's not afraid to go for the Gold when it matters most. He is proving again why he is a true Hall of Famer while executing in New York...... (seeking alpha is their any way this post can be anonymous??)
And by the way, there is one more thing: Let's hope that some day 1 share of Sirius stock reaches the price of a super size Big Mac meal and dessert. At that price I'll be a hair above break even with a few extra bucks in my pocket which will mitigate all the suffering I've endured in owning this stock -- what a bonehead I was to buy-in during the Howard hype...
Scot's Slant
I won't tell...I'm sure you're among the many homers that wish T. Brady was back in the mix. Just shows how important he really was to the team. But maybe in the meantime it's good to have a guy like Bret around (as in gulity pleasure for the AFC champion die-hards)? As you say, he's a legit hall of famer. And he's one fo the few stars who never loses or fails to show his enthusiasm for the game he plays. I have to believe that the main reason he came back one last year was because otherwise, his entire career, though stellar on many levels, would have ended on a crucial interception...and though "the pick" in general is his infamous noteriety, he never could have lived with that! I'm glad he went to a classic team like the Jets. Like Killer says, I also go back fondly to the Joe Willie days. Emmerson Boozer, Don Maynard, Weeb. those were fun. I also have to believe this will be Bret's last year. I can guarantee you though, if they are losing and deep in their own zone and its the last play, this time he'll throw it away! But looks like it's going to be between your boys and Bret. May the best team take the honors...
As far as the action, I agree. Too much sideways on low volume can indicate a lack of interest for lower profile stocks. But no way will this stock ever be left for dead! It still holds much up and downside potential for many, IMO....But I also think there is a sig change going on with this company's profile for the better and needs a little time to take effect. Looking closer at SD's mffais info, I see a good trend of new holdings and position additions (in my above post). For me, those are the kinds of things that change sentiment in the "follow the leader" sense. I think we keep getting closer to shorts reversing postions because of who they see taking new/building existing positions. And we never really know when they will throw in the towel so to speak--but I think we're close. Since the 10th, I feel like the whisper is starting to grow--which for me explains the lack of heavy volume (as we know, mostly previous downside pressure). This "neutrality" could still continue a little longer--esp. with the GM thing looming. I think another big thing regarding the stability we've seen is the Street now finally building in the Feb debt as a non-issue. The Q report was a big positive for this. But, as we both know, not all stock moves always happen when expected--such as directly ON the news--and ESP. during times like these when the Bears are out for blood (when hoping for a pop)...so I think we are seeing a delay due to last week's overwhelming negative sentiment. Overall, I see a "sinking-in"/realizati... period--which has been supported/enhanced by the recent MF positive action underneath. Those are some very significant long postions and can't be unnoticed by shorts. Eventually the inevitable resigned collective reversal will trigger...it could even happen sans news considering the 285M share position...I've seen similar in the past (let's see what the new tally is this week, but even if it's 250-260, that's still crazy high and due to unwind significantly). Just hard to predict when... Hey, better overall market/economic sentiment certainly would be helpful!!
As you say, let's see what this week brings and esp. if, as we should, climb back towards the 9500/10K level...This was a heavy short period for the market and more of those positions still need to be yet unwound. Btw...I didn't give that b.s. 300 pt move down in the last 15 minutes any cred, other than that some big players didn't want to be long over the weekend. IMHO...
mffais 11/14 info has been posted. Wow. ..this, at least is a tell for me, why we have been stationary to slightly up... which = very positive. Major adds to existing positions but more imortantly major new positions reported on 11/14. These must have been from what, last, week or 10 days maybe? I don't know how long reporting is from actual buy/sell dates but assume very recent...
And look what we have here:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc Institution 0.00 % 2008-11-14 Current Shares 11,244,513 Value $2,923,573 Added More 7,023,867
Damn...
T. Rowe Price has added 84M shares.
FMR took a new position with 24M (a $318B Fund)
PNC added 2.4M
Janus added 8M
Jennison Associates new position at 64M shares (a $35B Fund)
Check it out. This is a fraction of the activity. I'm sticking by my meeting time price target. It's setting up.
mffais numbers are the best I've seen in a long time. I think you are right that the winds of change are building for the better... 58% buying is way up from just 3 0r 4 weeks ago when that was the selling side of the equation... looks very encouraging. GS' Weinkes has it a .25 cents and needs to look at the numbers after the CC, and now his firm increases their position buy 7+Mil shares....... interesting indeed.
Thanks to your response about my low volume question. Killer says it best, cos, sl62, relmor, 163888 your collective knowledge and patience in dealing with us less knowledgable is greatly appreciated.
Please, put down the crack pipe - um, there actually has to be DEMAND for a stock in order for "hundreds if not thousands" of mutual funds to buy it. BTW, you really think anyone believes you made money in SIRI??? Give me a break.
The only sure bet in 2009 is shorting Siri.