First Call of the Crisis: Peter Schiff Could Be Video of the Year 19 comments
November 14, 2008
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Say what you will about Peter Schiff –- self-promoter, etc. – but he nailed the current crisis first, best, and most lucidly. And, to his credit, he got out in public saying it over and over again, despite harsh skepticism sent his way. As PE Wire said this morning, this may just be the video of the year.
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This article has 19 comments:
But serious: When I started studying the US financial system in the spring of 2004 I became very worried.
And via my website I even tried to get to the central banks of the developing nations telling them what to do.
Of course they did not do it, but that is their problem and not mine...
If they have a few hundred of thousands extra deaths, this is their problem and not mine.
It was a long way, this study of the US financial system. You have to learn a whole lot about how the system works, from M1, M2 and M3 money, the central bank to the way options are priced.
Latest result from my study:
This week I calculated the year on year debt growth of the US financial sector for as long as the Federal Reserve has records on this (I do this a lot longer for the last 8 to 10 years).
The result was:
Year on year debt grow was 13%.
That is far beyond profit growth, GDP growth and so on.
Conclusion: What has been reported as 'profits' over the last decades was in fact new debt...
Seldom a nation has been so illusive about her wealth!
If you have some time to spare, you should definitely watch the series of clips on youtube.com on Peter addressing the Mortgage Bankers Association way back in 2006 (those heady days), warning them about the impending sub-prime debacle. Off course, they laughed him off at that time.
Here's the link to the first segment on youtube. Look for the entire series on the right hand side.
www.youtube.com/watch?...
However, if you read Crash Proof, Peter's recommended portfolio of 70-90% gold and 10-30% foreign equities hasn't done all that well either. There hasn't been the flight to safety that Peter predicted. Gold is 30% below is target of $1,000/oz., and foreign equities have been decimated worse than US equities.
Peter was correct that US equities and homes would get a haircut and the US would enter a deep recession, and hat's off to him for having the foresight and courage to say so. But, his prescription for individuals wasn't all that great.
The long-term prospects of the US dollar and the USA's competitiveness can only last as long as Asians and other investors in US debt securities keep shooting themselves in the head by letting us pay them for all those imports with dollars. The madness has to stop somewhere. And, when you don't produce what you consume and you have a weakening currency, with a spendthrift government of Dems/Repubs. it will inevitably lead to inflation and a sharp drop in our standard of living.
I'm trying one of his books.
the video is scary because it sounds just like the rude and arrogant treatment that ron paul and virtually all of the alternate party members/candidates have received in the last few years/elections by our media and "expert analysts".
Even here (in Seeking Alpha), just toss up a "return to the gold standard" article, and a bunch of equally arrogant 'experts' ramble on about the "correction and control" that fiat money systems enable in such markets... What they conveniently forget is with a substantiated monetary standard, you don't need all of that damned "correction and control". Idiots.
Thanks Peter Schiff - Opinion-wise and action-wise, I'm holding to my guns (literally?), as I prepare to witness our government's inevitable theft of its citizen's wealth through inflation and radical changes in pension policy.
And while I shudder at gold as an effectively dead-end 'working capital' vehicle, I can't keep barrels of oil under my mattress.
I just love the guy recommending WaMu - priceless.
--ikk
We have already been robbed once by the white house taking our money and handing it over with NO STRINGS to those who DO NOT NEED IT! Giving it to them as an insentive to stay? OMG Why? They
ran the company into the ground !
On Nov 14 12:58 PM Schweizer wrote:
> I wish FOX would replay this on Saturday and ask each pundent to
> publically apologize to Mr. Shiff and to the American people.
It's too bad most investors listened to the likes of the wishing and hoping crowd of Kudlow, Cramer and the rest of the CNBC/ Bloomberg talking heads. All these self serving commentators are doing a gross disservice when they mislead the public with their shallow understanding of economics. The likes of Maria Bartoromo and Becky Quick make me cringe. Where do they find these people and who decides to air their inane, stupid and irrelevent comments.
Fortunately for many of us "gold bugs", we have ignored these idiots and we have seen the writing on the wall for many years. We understood that debt generated "growth" is not sustainable nor is it logical nor is it sound. It's time to pay the piper and pay we shall.
At any rate, I find it hard to believe that so many people get air time who have so little grasp of the fundamentals of asset valuation and economics. Peter was absolutely right and he deserves a sincere apology from all those hacks who publicly derided him.
On Nov 14 12:58 PM Schweizer wrote:
> I wish FOX would replay this on Saturday and ask each pundent to
> publically apologize to Mr. Shiff and to the American people.
remember folks, those pretty faces and nice voices are there to keep your attention until the next paid commercial. they're no more than Dr. Phil or Regis on different cable networks. if they were not entertainers, they'd be elsewhere making their fortunes,
CAVEAT EMPTOR, friend!!
Peter Schiff should be on everybody's reading list. He's also not batting 100%, but he understood the macroeconomic factors well before conventional wisdom and Wall Street shills.
Cramer alerted us.
www.cnbc.com/id/158402...
We hope to concern you TOO.
www.prosefights.org/nm...
Flight to safety happened but not towards Gold or foreign assets but towards cash (US dollar) and Treasuries. This is a short term reaction. Watch out for the free fall expected very soon in US dollar, treasuries and equities . I think in equities, it has already started. I am just waiting for Government to announce some more bailouts before the free fall in dollar and Treasuries starts. Foreign equities and Gold will start to do well then.
On Nov 14 09:32 PM raising4daughters wrote:
> I read Peter's book Crash Proof over the summer but didn't act boldly
> enough on his advice. I went to 50% equities (at 43, that's pretty
> conservative). Should've gone to 0%.
>
> However, if you read Crash Proof, Peter's recommended portfolio of
> 70-90% gold and 10-30% foreign equities hasn't done all that well
> either. There hasn't been the flight to safety that Peter predicted.
> Gold is 30% below is target of $1,000/oz., and foreign equities have
> been decimated worse than US equities.
>
> Peter was correct that US equities and homes would get a haircut
> and the US would enter a deep recession, and hat's off to him for
> having the foresight and courage to say so. But, his prescription
> for individuals wasn't all that great.