Seeking Alpha
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is due with its Q4 results after the bell today, and analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting the company to post a profit of $0.56 per share on revenue of $1.10 billion.

ADBE favors a long-term widening pattern between the sessions following after-hours earnings events. The stock has seen more aggressive next-day percentage closing levels following 20 of its last 35 after-hours, earnings-driven moves. The near-term pattern favors widening as well, with more aggressive, same-direction next-day trade in six of the last 10 quarters.

Looking deeper into the performance data, longs may be interested to know that ADBE has seen a positive post-bell earnings-driven trade in 18 of the 35 quarters we've tracked, and in 12 of those upside evening moves the stock has followed that trade with a more aggressive positive run in the next day's regular session - 67% of the time.

Shorts may want to be a bit more cautious on this one as the stock has recorded downside after-hours trade following 17 of the quarters we've tracked. It narrowed or reversed that after-hours downside move in the following regular session in nine of those events, or 53% of the time.

On Sept. 19, 2012, ADBE slipped 0.9% in after-hours trade after coming in shy on Q3 revenue, meeting on earnings, and setting its Q4 view below the Street. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Sept. 20 regular session up 4.1%.

On June 19, 2012, ADBE declined 4.1% in night trade after beating on Q2 but also setting its Q3 view mostly below expectations. The stock cut its downside the next day, ending the June 20 regular session off 2.7%.

On March 19, 2012, ADBE declined 4.8% in after-hours trade after posting Q1 revenue just shy of expectations. The stock cut its downside slightly the next day, ending the March 20 regular session off 3.9%.

On Dec. 15, 2011, ADBE gained 3.9% in after-hours trade after posting better-than-expected Q4 results. The stock leaped higher the following day, closing the Dec. 16 regular session up 6.5%.

On Sept. 20, 2011, ADBE surged 7.5% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 EPS estimates by a penny and setting Q4 guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock saw most of its gains evaporate the next day, closing the Sept. 21 regular session up 1%.

On June 21, 2011, ADBE declined 3.7% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 expectations and setting its guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock was hit for further downside the following day, closing the June 22 regular session down 6.2%.

On March 22, 2011, ADBE slipped 0.06% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 earnings estimates and setting its Q2 guidance below the Street view. The stock dropped lower the following day, closing the March 23 regular session down 3.6%.

On Dec. 20, 2010, ADBE gained 5.1% in after-hours trade on the back of better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock firmed higher the next day, closing the Dec. 21 regular session up 6%.

On Sept. 21, 2010, ADBE tumbled 15.8% in evening trade despite beating Q3 expectations and setting Q4 guidance that straddled the Street view. The stock added to its downside the following day, closing the Sept. 22 regular session down 19%.

On June 22, 2010, ADBE declined 1.6% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 earnings expectations, setting guidance that straddled the Street view and announcing a stock buyback. The stock headed deeper in the red the following day, closing the June 23 regular session down 7.2%.

On March 23, 2010, ADBE jumped 6.7% in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock lost nearly half its gains the following day, closing the March 24 regular session up 3.6%.

On Dec. 15, 2009, ADBE edged up 0.2% in after-hours action after beating Q4 expectations and setting its Q1 guidance mostly in line with the Street view. The stock added to its upside the following day, closing the Dec. 16 regular session with a 4.1% gain.

On Sept. 15, 2009, ADBE declined 4.2% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations and issuing guidance that straddled the then current Street view. The stock continued heading lower the next day, closing the Sept. 16 regular session down 6.3%.

On June 16, 2009, ADBE declined 3% in after-hours trade after the company reported earnings in line with expectations, beat on sales, and set guidance in a range that straddled the then-current Street view. The stock reversed course the following day, ending the June 17 regular session up 1.8%.

On March 17, 2009, ADBE edged up 0.4% in evening trade after beating Q1 expectations and setting its Q2 guidance in a range that straddled the Street mean. The stock soared the following day, closing the March 18 regular session up 11.6%.

On Dec. 16, 2008, ADBE advanced 8.9% in after-hours trade after the company topped earnings expectations and reaffirmed its outlook. The stock lost its gain the next day, ending the Dec. 17 regular session down 2.8%.

On Sept. 16, 2008, the stock gained 3.7% in extended-hours trading after a Q3 beat and Q4 guidance mostly above the Street view. Shares reversed and closed down 5% the next day.

On June 16, 2008, ADBE declined 2.6% in after-hours trade despite beating Q2 expectations and setting its Q3 guidance in line to above estimates. It added to its downside in the June 17 regular session, ending down 3.3%.

On March 18, 2008, ADBE gained 5.6% during evening hours after a profit beat. The gain nearly doubled, to 9% during the next day's regular trading session.

On Dec. 17, 2007, the stock fell 1.8% during evening trading despite a Q4 beat and Q1 guidance largely above the Street view. The stock rebounded to gain 2.7% the next day.

On Sept. 17, 2007, ADBE gained 4.3% in after hours when the company beat Q3 expectations and guided for Q4 to top Street views. However, shares lost their momentum and ended the next day session up only 1.5%.

On June 14, 2007, ADBE dipped 0.8% in the night session despite beating Q2 estimates and forecasting Q3 in line with expectations. Shares fell further the next day, closing the regular session down 2.7%.

On March 20, 2007, ADBE rose 3.5% in after-hours trade when the company topped Q1 EPS estimates but was shy on sales. It also offered guidance in line with expectations. Shares extended those gains the following day, closing the regular session up 6.2%.

On December 14, 2006, ADBE jumped 6.2% in night trade after topping Q4 sales estimates and meeting on EPS. It also forecast Q1 EPS above Street views. However, the shares could not hold on to all its nighttime gains and closed up 4.9% in the next day session.

On Sept. 14, 2006, shares gained 7.6% in the evening hours after the company beat with Q3 results and guided for Q4 largely in line with the Street view. The gain was 9.9% the next day.

On June 15, 2006, ADBE slid 3.8% in after-hours trade after the company missed Q2 sales estimates, beat on EPS and forecast its forward outlook below Street expectations. The stock turned from the negative in next-day trade and ended the June 16 regular session up 0.5%.

On March 22, 2006, ADBE declined 3.7% in night trade after the company beat Q1 expectations, but set its Q2 sales view below Street estimates. For Q2, the company said it expected revenue in the range of $640 to $670 million and non-GAAP EPS of $0.30 to $0.32 per share, vs. the then-current FC mean of $676 million in revenue and EPS of $0.32 per share. Much of that decline was trimmed back the next day as ADBE closed the March 23 regular session down a mere 0.8%.

On December 15, 2005, ADBE rose 3.7% in after-hours trade on stronger-than-expected Q4 results and solid guidance for FY06. The shares gained more ground the next day, ending the regular session up 11.1%.

On Sept. 15, 2005 ADBE gained 1.1% in after-hours trade after the company reported in-line revenue, beat on EPS, and guided to match Street estimates. Buyers kicked off a bullish rise in the Sept. 16 regular session, boosting the issue 9.4% by the close.

On June 16, 2005 ADBE slid 5.7% in night trade following better-than-expected results and in-line guidance. Sellers pared back their pressure on June 17, sending the issue down a more modest 3.3%.

On March 17, 2005 ADBE advanced 2.1% in after-hours trade after the company topped Street expectations and set its outlook in line with estimates. It surged higher on March 18, rising a more robust 6.1% by the closing bell.

ADBE shed 3.2% the night of Dec. 16, 2004 after the company beat expectations and set its outlook in-line to better than the current Street view. The stock saw its declines narrow the next day, ending the Dec. 17 regular session down 1%.

ADBE added 3.9% in the Sept. 20, 2004 after-hours session after the company reported better-than-expected results and guided higher. It saw more aggressive next-day gains on Sept. 21, rising 5.2% by the closing bell.

On June 17, 2004 ADBE lost 2.2% in night trade after the company beat estimates and set its outlook about in line with the Street. More aggressive selling hit the stock the next day, driving it down 4.2%.

On March 18, 2004 ADBE bested the Street view and the stock jumped 7.7% in after-hours trade. It firmed to a 9.8% rise by the close on March 19.

Source: Adobe Maintains Bullish Edge For Longs Off Earnings Driven After-Hours Trade