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If General Motors (GM) is allowed to fail, won’t we lose three million jobs? That multi-million job loss comes from both GM’s own employees, plus the suppliers and dealers. However, the economics behind that idea is pretty bogus.

 The number of auto jobs we have is tied to the volume of cars we produce and sell in the United States. If GM fails and then the economy recovers, the jobs will recover. They may not be GM jobs.  They may well be Honda (HMC) or Toyota (TM) jobs, but still located here in the United States.

 Or consider the alternative: that after GM fails, car demand never recovers. In that case, subsidies to GM continue forever.  The U.S. taxpayers continue to do what GM has done for so long: pay auto “workers” to not work.

 It is possible to produce high quality cars fairly inexpensively, and in America. The Japanese companies do it. GM cannot. If GM fails, someone else will take up the slack.

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  •  
    Hey, Dr. Bill:

    Who's going to build our tanks? Germany and Japan? Korea or China?

    I am not aiffliated with the auto industry in any way, but I fear for our national security.

    You are advocating that we become a third world country.
    2008 Nov 16 01:17 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Mr. Conerly, exactly what grade school level of economics do you base your theories on?

    Same old "let them fail" mentality that has become the doctrine of the disenfranchised. If you understood even the most basic fundamentals of the current auto industry in the U.S. you would have written a vastly different rant.

    2008 Nov 16 02:01 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The domestics employ people in the US for research and development, where do you think the imports do theirs? Where do you think the "profits" genreated by foreign businesses reside (Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy)? The domestic industry has done several things wrong, it is true (so have Merck, pfizer, Dupont etc) but the damage to the National Economy can not be under estimated (the lossof jobs in California will be instant and have dire effects on their entire State economy!! The impact will be like doiminoes across the Country, California, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, to start, then the small businessmen who deliver the product every day will fail, when your neighbors (domestic) breaks who will repair it or perform any remaining warranty? The suppliers are another issue, yes they can produce for others, but until they are able to negotiate new contracts, re-tool and re-finance, they will add to the unemployment statistics.
    You are correct that in the "LONG RUN" our Country will recover, we will return to some politicians' definition of 'full employment' and stocks will reflect the value of our economy, once again BUT a famous Economist (John Meynard Keynes, once said: "We are all dead in the LONG Run"
    2008 Nov 16 04:03 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Mr. Conerly,
    You make the best analysis so far.
    Honestly speaking, American made cars are not as good.
    In order to survive, big changes must be made before any
    bailouts are considered. Otherwise, it will cost even more failures.
    The biggest damages are done by the UAW. They are the ones who
    caused their own demise. During the last half century, all they did were Strikes, and more Strikes. I grew up hearing that word so often.
    GM should move to the Southern States and have a brand new start.
    When workers treat employers as enemies, both will die. Simple.
    2008 Nov 16 04:49 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    VPInvestor,
    Don't worry about the tanks.
    There are more important things to deal with.
    We have nuclear bombs, so, what do you
    worry about tanks for ?
    When all changes are made, they can build
    even better tanks and trucks.
    2008 Nov 16 04:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    GM is an HMO for lazy overpaid UAW workers, that makes cars on the side. GM makes junk.
    Lots of airlines filed Chapter 11 and still fly. They were able to rengotiate their union contracts and become solvent.
    GM needs to do the same thing. The US Taxpayer should not fund the Mob Controlled UAW just because they funded the Chosen One's campaign.
    The Taxpayer should NOT pay. Cut their Health Benefits and their Pensions.
    Save Social Security not the UAW
    2008 Nov 16 05:01 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Auto industry need to be rescued but only when the top management of these companies need to go, the management of these companies brought these companies to this situation, to be honest the only way these companies to survive is to go in bankruptcy. GM need to keep only Cadillac and Chevy get rid off all other brands (it is only possible in bankruptcy protection). Ford should keep only Ford, their Lincoln brand has no chance against BMW, Mercedez Benz and Lexus, they can no longer rebadge Ford Fusion and sell as luxury vehicle people are smart enough to figure that out (may be people in Detroit or Ford employee will buy or lease it but has no chance selling it other parts of country).

    The idea of big three to compete in every vehicle category is ambitious considering their financial condition. The product line of big three does not include a single vehicle which will top in quality and "have to have feeling from consumers". This situation will not improve in next few years, with tight credit availability bad credits history of people from foreclosure and bankruptcy from this downturn.

    Big three have constantly cut cost on the wrong side, it is in the vehicle cost by reducing the contents and in salaried staff lately. Time and again Consumer Report has reported the quality of Detroit automakers are among worse, there are occasion it improved but in next few years it declined.

    In order to increase the market share of big three they have to sell cars to people who own foreign brands right now, it is hard to imagine thsi could happen, based on history of declines of big three.

    Democrats will be forced to bail out Detroit, but it will be insane to think it will improve big three situation if they are run by same managemnt. Two years later big three will be in same situation like they do every two years, they are in constant restructuring for last 20 years.

    With car volumes in 10 to 11 million in range this year and following years to come, people credit going bad due to foreclosure it will hard to sell new cars next few years.

    It is so ironic it is the same big three who were asking suppliers to go to china and build parts to bring the cost down, they got the price down but they also lost all the consumers who were buying their cars, I have seen the tool shops closing in Sterling Heights, Troy and cities around GM tech Center in Warren, MI. Most of the suppliers are gone from MI to other countries. their employee head counts are down 30 to 40 percent as compared to few year ago. I don't know which jobs will they protect.......
    2008 Nov 16 05:26 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Bill - Your way out in left field pal and the ball is waaay over in right field - maybe you skipped class the day they spent on economics. This is not about how the business is run or who has the best car, this is a Global Crisis, it's very simple ...you need a JOB to get MONEY to buy FOOD to pay TAXES to buy CARs or even a newspaper - if North Americans don't have a JOB they won't have the MONEY to buy anything and we will not need BILL because we won't be able to afford a newspaper- we don't buy Japanese newspapers - WHY would you want to buy a Japanese Car -
    Do you think that the profits getting SUCKED out of North America will be brought back and put towards helping the economy HERE - I THINK NOT-thats how this whole mess started!!!
    2008 Nov 16 05:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    You might have many comments on mismanagement and poor financial decisions but don't sour your comments with items like "GM builds junk".
    All this shows is that you are completely out of touch with reality.
    You don't win all the awards GM has received in the past years by building junk.
    I drive a 1995 Chev Impala SS and I love it.
    As for the morons who are touting buying imported vehicles that are assembled in the USA as 'American products' ............the offshores are laughing their ***es off at you. Like taking candy from a baby
    2008 Nov 16 05:55 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Dr. Bill, et al,

    The 2008 JD Power & Assocs. ratings for auto quality show that U.S. makers took #1 for qulaity in:

    MIDSIZE CARS (Chevrolet)
    www.jdpower.com/autos/...

    LARGE CARS (Pontiac)
    www.jdpower.com/autos/...

    MIDSIZE PICKUPS (Dodge)
    www.jdpower.com/autos/...

    LARGE PICKUPS (Chevrolet)
    www.jdpower.com/autos/...

    VANS (Ford)
    www.jdpower.com/autos/...
    ======================...
    Where do you people do your research. Old magazines?

    2008 Nov 16 06:24 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    GO AHEAD AND BUY YOR JAP JUNK..THIS IS WHAT YOU'RE MISSING.
    1. Which country can boast that their brands occupy 2 of the top 3 spots for long-term reliability?

    Answer: United States.
    Per J.D. Power Vehicle Dependability Study, Mercury and Cadillac are in the top 3, along with Lexus. And in 2007, Buick was tied with Lexus for the top spot.
    www.jdpower.com/corpor...

    2. As of August 2007, which manufacturer had the most recalled vehicles in the U.S. for that year?

    Answer: Volkswagen.
    According to Business Week, Volkswagen had the most recalls at this time a year ago. The second worst was Toyota.
    www.businessweek.com/a...

    3. Pick the brand from each group that has the highest initial quality.

    a. Answer : Cadillac (better than both Acura and BMW)
    b. Answer: Mercury (better than both Honda and Nissan)
    c. Answer: Chevrolet (better than Acura, BMW, and Mazda)
    This is according to J.D. Power’s Initial Quality Survey.
    www.jdpower.com/corpor...

    4. Which midsize sedan has the highest initial quality?

    Answer: The Chevrolet Malibu has better initial quality than any competitor, including the Honda Accord, Toyota Camry and Nissan Altima. The Ford Fusion also beat all 3 Japanese competitors.
    This too is from the J.D. Power Initial Quality Survey, which also reveals that above average are American brands Mercury, Ford, Cadillac, Chevrolet , Pontiac, Lincoln, and Buick. Below average are import brands Acura, Kia, Nissan, BMW, Mazda, VW, Subaru, and Scion (and several others).
    www.jdpower.com/autos/...
    www.jdpower.com/corpor...

    5. Which large sedan has the highest initial quality?

    Answer: Again per J.D. Power, the highest quality large car is the Pontiac Grand Prix, beating the Toyota Avalon. Two other Detroit cars that beat the Avalon are the Mercury Sable and Mercury Grand Marquis.
    www.jdpower.com/autos/...

    6. Which midsize pickup has the highest initial quality?

    Answer: The Dodge Dakota has the best quality for midsize pickups, proving that Chrysler too can beat the imports. Both the Dakota and the Ford Ranger beat the Toyota Tacoma.
    www.jdpower.com/autos/...

    7. Which car is the most economical overall?

    Answer: Per Edmunds.com, the premier automotive analysis site, the most economical car in America, taking into account not only mileage but all costs, is the Chevrolet Aveo. The Honda Fit is #3 and the Toyota Prius is a distant #34.
    www.edmunds.com/help/a...

    8. Which car did the Los Angeles Times describe as “a better car than BMW or Mercedes or Lexus or Infiniti”?

    Answer: “Cadillac makes a better car than BMW or Mercedes or Lexus or Infiniti, and that car is the 2008 CTS. No other car in the mass market dares so much as this expressive and audacious bit of automotive avant-gardism.” Dan Neil, LA Times.
    www.latimes.com/classi...

    9. Which company makes the winner of the 2008 “Green Car of the Year” award?

    Answer: The Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid is the winner of this award. How could a full-size SUV defeat the media darling Toyota Prius? Read the link below and you will discover, “What’s equally eye-opening is that the Tahoe’s 21 mpg city fuel efficiency rating is the same as that of the city EPA rating for the four-cylinder Toyota Camry sedan. ”

    Did you catch that? A huge, full-size SUV from Chevrolet that gets the same city mileage as a 4-cylinder Toyota Camry!! Chevy obtained this remarkable achievement through the use of its 2-mode hybrid system, a technology that Toyota does not have.
    www.greencar.com/featu.../

    10. Which car was selected by the North American automotive press corps as the “North American Car of the Year” for 2007?

    Answer: Not only was the Saturn Aura picked by the automotive press corps as better than the Honda Fit and the Toyota Camry, “When a panel of 47 journalists named the Saturn Aura the North American Car of the Year over the Toyota Camry, the vote wasn't even close, 205-89.” Chicago Tribune, 1/15/07
    www.northamericancarof...

    11. Which car won the same award for 2008?

    Answer: GM again crushed the Japanese competition in 2008 when the Malibu received 190 votes to the Honda Accord’s 95. The Accord actually came in 3rd since GM’s other finalist, the Cadillac CTS, received 165 votes.
    www.northamericancarof...

    12. Which company had a luxury vehicle, a midsize sedan, and a large truck removed from the Consumer Reports recommended vehicles list in October 2007 because of mounting quality problems?

    Answer: Toyota’s much publicized quality problems resulted in Consumer Reports actually removing from their recommended vehicles list the Lexus GS luxury car, Camry V6 sedan, and Tundra pickup. This demotion occurred in October 2007.

    If you are one of the many Americans who gave up on Detroit’s cars because of a bad experience many years ago, it’s time to rethink your position. Rethink Detroit.

    Detroit automakers: 79 U.S. jobs per 2,500 cars sold in America.
    Foreign automakers: 33 U.S. jobs per 2,500 cars sold in America.
    levelfieldinstitute.or.../
    SHOVE YOR RUST BOX YOU KNOW WHERE!
    2008 Nov 16 06:25 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The only answer is the the employees, bondholders, stockholders, and yes the US Govt need to all share the pain to make this work.

    Employees should take a cut in pay and benefits in return for a stake in the company.

    The bondholders should settle for $.50 on the dollar. I am being generous. The shareholders should end up with maybe 10% of the company, albeit a profitable one.

    The Gov't would have to fund the cash flow of the company until they start making the cars the consumers want, in return for a stake in the company.

    It can work, but not when the leader of the UAW says no more concessions. What will he be saying in a Chaper 11 filing when the workforce can be laid off at will and all the union contracts are cancelled. Save your jobs now in return for a stake in a healthier GM.
    2008 Nov 16 07:09 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Lets take a look at what Mr Conerly has said in the recent past… Then I will sum up below … NOTE MY COMMENTS ARE IN CAPS.. DON'T CONFUSE WHAT I HAVE TO SAY WITH WHAT THIS GUY HAS TO SAY…

    July 31, 2008 Recession? Not this year.

    "Certainly there's no recession when the economy is growing substantially, even if the growth is below trend. That's where we are today." "Business planning implications: don't get
    caught up in the doom and gloom headlines. Look into the
    detail of how your customers are faring. Plenty of sub-
    sectors are bucking the trend."

    August 5, 2008 - Auto Sales are cause for Optimism

    "So is this a good time to buy GM (GM)? I have to say, if it was truly worth $30 a share back in 2007, it looks like a great bargain at $10 today. But here's the rub: I'm not sure it was worth $30 last year. Maybe it was, but I would want to sharpen my pencil on their employee liabilities and their competitive position before buying the stock. I must say (here's a non-expert comment) that they have some good looking cars for a change. If I weren't such a practical, reliability focused buyer, I would abandon the Japanese nameplates for a GM or a Chrysler."

    NOTE HE ADMITS HE IS A NON EXPERT WITH RESPECT TO THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

    August 15, 2008 - Retail sales are weak, but no towel being thrown in.

    "Consumers are just throwing in the towel," 'according to Global Insight economist Brian Bethune. I like a nice quote, but Bethune displays utter ignorance in his search for news exposure.'

    August 15, 2008 - Four reasons we can't call it a recession - yet

    "In total, my best guess is that when it's all over, we'll call it a growth recession, meaning that the growth rate of the economy slowed significantly, but it wasn't quite a real recession."

    September 23, 2008 - 400 words on the financial crisis

    "Financial crises have occurred for centuries, ranging from the tulip craze to the South Sea Bubble to, more recently, the Asian Financial Crisis. Many great banks have failed over the centuries, and although their loss seems staggering at the time, the consequences are very fleeting.
    Today's crisis is large to Wall Street, and to the secretary of the treasury, who comes from Wall Street. Main Street, however, is not doing as badly.
    …. What should everyday people do about this crisis? Sit tight. This is no time to be dumping stocks or bonds or closing bank accounts."

    THE DOW WENT OFF A CLIFF SHORTLY AFTER THIS ADVICE…

    November 16, 2008 GM Job Loss: Bogus Economics

    The number of auto jobs we have is tied to the volume of cars we produce and sell in the United States. If GM fails and then the economy recovers, the jobs will recover. They may not be GM jobs. They may well be Honda (HMC) or Toyota (TM) jobs, but still located here in the United States.

    ______________________...
    ACCORDING TO BILL CONERLY, ITS OK IF GM GOES BANKRUPT… THE LOST AMERICAN JOBS WILL BE REPLACED… OF COURSE, THE HEAVY MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IN THE US WOULD BE DECIMATED, BUT NO PROBLEM… HONDA AND TOYOTA WILL TAKE OVER AND GIVE US NEW JOBS… I DO WONDER WHO WOULD BUILD OUR TANKS… BUT, WHAT THE HECK… LETS SAVE AIG FOR 150 BILLION BUT LET GM GO DOWN THE TUBES FOR 17 % OF THAT NUMBER…

    LETS SEE. GM SOLD OVER NINE MILLION VEHICLES IN 2007… ALL HONDA AND TOYOTA NEED TO DO IS RAMP-UP THEIR FACTORIES, ALL THOSE FACTORIES THAT EXIST IN THE UNITED STATES, AND STAMP OUT ANOTHER NINE MILLION VEHICLES…. OUR AUTOMOTIVE WORKERS CAN RELOCATE THEIR FAMILIES, AND START THEIR CAREERS OVER MAKING HONDAS AND TOYOTAS … NOT SURE ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS TO THE RETIREMENT PAYOUTS FOR RETIRED GM WORKERS… THAT'S NO CONCERN TO CONERLY WITH HIS "LET THEM EAT CAKE" ATTITUDE… PERHAPS HE WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED IF HE REMEMBERED WHAT HAPPENED TO THE PERSON THAT SAID… "LET THEM EAT CAKE."

    OF COURSE, IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF TIME TO RAMP-UP THE US HONDA AND TOYOTA FACTORIES TO REPLACE THE PRODUCTION OF NINE MILLION VEHICLES THAT GM SOLD IN 2007….

    IN THE MEAN TIME MR CONERLY, WHAT DO YOU SUGGEST THE AMERICANS THAT LOST THEIR JOBS ARE GOING TO LIVE ON?????

    WHAT DO YOU THINK, DOES HE KNOW WHAT HE IS TALKING ABOUT?
    2008 Nov 16 07:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Talk about Bogus economics! If GM stops producing today it would take years for Honda and Toyota to replace that production in US plants. Imports could only partially fill the gap. 90% of the jobs that would be created in the meantime would be in Eastern Europe or Asia. On the other hand, it would touch off a depression that would affect everybody - maybe even you in your cushy Economist job!
    2008 Nov 16 08:17 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Very simple economics, not degree required. Generally speaking, Americans cars are not good. It is simple. Are ALL american cars bad? Of course not, but what the masses want and buy are not good. Hondas, Toyotas run forever....FOREVER!! These things never break! Do ALL Hondas and Toyotas run forever? Of course not. As a matter of fact, a family member had to change the starter and water pump in the last month on her Camry 2003. Just like the american cars we have owned, after 5 years to the tee!, they start to break down. But our 2001 Toyota Sienna runs like a charm. A Chevy truck we had a few years back, after 5 year (again, exactly!) oil started leaking out (either to the outside of the inside...amazing!...no... the first american car owned in the family that did this or the only brands, our Fords did the same thing...I have to say, american companies have great labs in order to get these same results!). So what did we do?? We moved to Japanese cars and never looked back. Again, those things run forever! Camry's now have the same comfort as only the american made cars used to have, they are a nice drive. So are americans made cars still, but you know they will brake after 5 years....to the day!!!! I don't work for a car industry to post any awards or whatever or have family working for the auto industry...I'm just a consumer who is looking to get the most out of his money the american, capitalistic way: "Who got the better deal? You do? OK here is my money".
    2008 Nov 16 09:44 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    "Tata" is a "Dodo". Toyota had to settle a consumer class action lawsuit filed by customers who could not get relief any other way for an oil sludge issue with their engines. Google it. if you don't believe me. Now, go tell those folks how Toyotas run "like....FOREVER!!!", you boob.
    2008 Nov 16 09:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This is interesting: (Borrowed from another blog). This is why GM and ther rest of the economy wont ever have a chance until we put BIG OIL to bed for good. CROOKS,they should be dealt with....

    Crude oil is down more than 50% from its high of $147 a barrel… But oil-gas station prices are not down by 50%? Moreover, there were no corresponding increases or decreases in supply-demand in 2007-2008! Peak oil has been predicted for 150 years. It has never happened, and it will stay this way. It is market manipulation or it is simply an irrational speculative mania.

    The greedy oil price hikers, believers, analysts and cheerleaders were led by top ten global oil companies who continue to loot consumers, fuel inflation and the recessionary credit crunch. This is nothing less than ENRON-like collusion on a global scale.

    Read how, for example, power cuts make ENRON FixyaExperts.wordpress... and FixyaExperts.blogspot....
    2008 Nov 16 10:03 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Good paying jobs are the creation of communities giving big corporations, like GM tax abatements. In return GM pays it's workers well which boosts the communities economy. This works well for the hourly insurance worker, the real estate worker, the school worker and the hospital worker. The whole community prospers. GM pays more taxes back to the Governments of this country than all the foriegn automakers combined. Foriegn automakers send their profits not back into your communities, but back to Japan.

    By voting to close GM, you vote against your investment in your own community and to allow foriegn interests to entrench deeper in your back yards. I agree that GM needs to redo their business plan because there are lots of mixed signals and this is why congress is taking their time to sort all this out. But to destroy any community in this country as a lesson to unions and poor management would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face. I don't look at this so much a bailout, but as a loan to help out a nieghbor who's fallen to an unfreindly economy. Hell, we're pumping 10 billion into Iraq every month. Just helping a nieghbor out right? Let's help our own with 2 just months of Iraq compensation.
    But demand a business plan, that emphasizes that our communities come before retention bonuses, golden parachutes, foriegn investment and global aspirations. Demand union accountability - stem absenteeism, tighten work restrictions, better review family medical leave abuse, throw out appointed position slackers and eliminate job entitlement attitudes.
    In turn we should expect work coming back to our communities, which should energize our economy, which hopefully will return the big three to profitability, and in a year or two create a robust return for the taxpayer.
    If we don't start to come together soon, we will surely fall apart.
    We just have to put politics aside and demand accountability. Please
    save the U.S.A.. Don't ask for it, Don't argue about it. Demand it!

    Reply |Report abuse
    2008 Nov 16 10:27 PM | Link | Reply
  •  


    Since I lost my job in the financial sector (and my home, life savings, and credit---don't spout your opinions to me about the crisis, I'll punch you in the face) I have spent pretty much every waking moment when I am not looking for a job (which, by the way if you hadn't noticed: there aren't any, unless you want to work at Dunkin Donuts) researching every aspect of this global disaster, far more I assure you than anyone you see on the evening news, CNBC, and CERTAINLY Mr. Conerly. The grossly opinionated mis-informed cavalier comments and attitudes I see running rampant are truly terrifying. At the risk of offending someone, I cannot even fathom having taxpayers (read American public) weigh in on something so profoundly important, something that will affect all of us for a long time to come, that in reality: THEY KNOW NOTHING ABOUT!!! I don't want my future, or my kids future, determined by Bertha from Iowa (OR Mr. Conerly!!) who just doesn't want to pay higher taxes, which is what she thinks, but all she really wants is to not lose any more money, 'cause things are tight, but could lose everything if the proper actions are not taken because they are pre-empted by folks just like Bertha. It is impossible to educate the masses in any cohesive manner at all, let alone in the timeliness demanded of our current situation.
    The foreign automakers will just absorb 2-3 MILLION employees, suppliers and dealers?? Ummm, when? How? At what cost to the National and Global economies in the meantime? And, oh, what about the hundreds of communities and micro-economies entirely dependent on the auto industry?? Plant closes, town closes. Gee, how many states are going to end up filing bankruptcy due to systemic economic failure? Oh, here's another one...how many more foreclosures will be spurred by this, on top of the already increasing rate, which is the HEART of this whole mess??? Wow, you really are a brain-trust. A perfect example of why pencil pushing book worms and MBAs don't know a damn thing about business in the real world. Right Rick Wagoner?? Thanks B-school losers for destroying our economy.
    2008 Nov 16 11:17 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Okay so acting from a neutral standpoint even if there workers were to be paid lesser socio-economic country wages of $4.00 an hour that would still not solve the problem as the excess inventory of cars will not be sold for a while as its not what the consumer wants nor is it an affordable item at a time like this as shown from recent sales numbers (yes I do know that overall GM does outsell Toyota) and with other costs factored in (legacy, operating fixed costs, etc..) it would still be hard to keep a double edged sword in GM profitable so shouldn't we let free market capitalism reign and deal with the dire consequences. It just doesnt seem to be sensible to throw good money at bad and let the big 3 burn through our money. Unfortunately I don't think that there is a viable solution that can be had in such a short time frame. Toyota is also losing money and cutting its outlook but they are still surviving in the same environment in which the big 3 have recently dealt with. (I'm currently a senior studying economics let me know what you think of my basic outlook so far)
    2008 Nov 16 11:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Japan pays their employees more, makes cheaper cars, more fuel efficient, and more reliable and nicer. Subsidizing the auto industry is useless because the executives are about the worse executives in the nation. First they need to go bankrupt so we can get rid of the executives and then we can talk about how an auto industry can be viable going into the future. Supporting them now would just be supporting another zombie company with no future like AIG.
    2008 Nov 17 01:06 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The initial question was - who is going to build our tanks? Uh, we have a sector called the defense industry. Maybe you heard of General Dynamics? Anyway, does anyone know when the last time an Abrams tank was disabled or even slowed down in the field by enemy firepower? No? I didn't think so. So much for the national defense argument.
    2008 Nov 17 07:14 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Someone in this thread has implied that because the Abram's tank is "built" by General Dynamics, that it is irrelevant if the US automotive industry is allowed to cease to exist. This note is a response to that logic.

    The Abram's tank is manufactured at the Lima Army Tank Plant. That Tank Plant is a government-owned, contractor-operated (GOCO) facility, run presently by General Dynamics and in the past by Chrysler. This is a small production facility capable of producing about 200 tanks per month. One of the basic ideas behind strategic planning is that you should never assume that one small plant with limited production capacity is going to be able to meet ALL possible future contingencies. If an army has not done its strategic planning homework, its troops are going to find themselves at a distinct disadvantage. Here is a good example of a failure of the militaries strategic planning process.

    In the recent past, US troops were taking a lot of causalities in Iraq due to IEDs (Improvised explosive devices). Our Humvee vehicles needed to have armour protection rapidly added to the sides of the vehicles. Unfortunately, the United States did not have the production capacity in place to rapidly retrofit the vehicles! As a consequence, our troops were put into the position of scrounging up any old piece of metal and welding it to various locations on their Humvees in a home grown effort to improve their survivability.

    This represents a classic failure in US strategic planning. If you are going to be putting troops in harms way, you are supposed to have contingency plans in place to rapidly ramp-up increased production capacity.

    The point of the question of "who is going to build our tanks" concerns the very same strategic planning issue. If this country has to rapidly ramp-up military vehicle production, what is the source of that excess production capacity? You don't have time to build new heavy manufacturing plants, you only have time to retrofit existing heavy manufacturing plants. The obvious contingency plan for rapidly increasing the production capacity of military vehicles is the same now as it was in WW II, the US Automotive Industry.
    2008 Nov 17 01:51 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    On Nov 16 07:09 PM Mr compromise wrote:

    > Employees should take a cut in pay and benefits in return for a stake
    > in the company.

    An excellent recommendation. Offer the line workers and middle management a sizable percentage of their salaries in the form of profit-sharing. If they make good products and reduce costs, they win. If they just march in place and put in their eight hours, they lose.

    Nothing produces quality products at a good price more than an economic incentive to do so. This could go a long way to revitalizing the American car makers.
    2008 Nov 17 02:27 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    For the record, and only somewhat relevant to the article and comments, the contingency strategic planning for tank building goes to CAT in Illinois.
    2008 Nov 17 10:25 PM | Link | Reply
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    If we are going to depend on Detroit for our national defense, we better start learning foreign languages for when we are shining the combat boots of foreign troops occupying native soil. The company who gave us the Ford Focus and the GM Cobalt? Please. People who are talking about the motor industry serving as the backdrop for tanks, jeeps and APCs should know the amount of American tanks destroyed in the invasion of Iraq. Here's a hint - the number is less than than one.

    GIs had to modify M-16s in the field. They had to improvise body armor for themselves. There is a long tradition of shoddy contractors reaching back to the Civil War. Lets let another group of shoddy contractors in and screw things up for a while. Maybe we can sell Michigan to Canada to pay for the bailouts. Parlez vouz Francais?
    2008 Nov 18 05:16 PM | Link | Reply
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    Monsieur Turi, a simple question to you; if American cars are so good, why is it that Americans themselves don't buy them? Could it be that the "initial quality" doesn't last?.



    On Nov 16 06:25 PM TURI wrote:

    > GO AHEAD AND BUY YOR JAP JUNK..THIS IS WHAT YOU'RE MISSING.
    > 1. Which country can boast that their brands occupy 2 of the top
    > 3 spots for long-term reliability?
    >
    > Answer: United States.
    > Per J.D. Power Vehicle Dependability Study, Mercury and Cadillac
    > are in the top 3, along with Lexus. And in 2007, Buick was tied with
    > Lexus for the top spot.
    > www.jdpower.com/corpor...
    >
    >
    > 2. As of August 2007, which manufacturer had the most recalled
    > vehicles in the U.S. for that year?
    >
    > Answer: Volkswagen.
    > According to Business Week, Volkswagen had the most recalls at this
    > time a year ago. The second worst was Toyota.
    > www.businessweek.com/a...
    >
    >
    > 3. Pick the brand from each group that has the highest initial
    > quality.
    >
    > a. Answer : Cadillac (better than both Acura and BMW)

    >
    > b. Answer: Mercury (better than both Honda and Nissan)

    >
    > c. Answer: Chevrolet (better than Acura, BMW, and Mazda)
    >
    > This is according to J.D. Power’s Initial Quality Survey.
    > www.jdpower.com/corpor...
    >
    >
    > 4. Which midsize sedan has the highest initial quality?
    >
    > Answer: The Chevrolet Malibu has better initial quality than any
    > competitor, including the Honda Accord, Toyota Camry and Nissan Altima.
    > The Ford Fusion also beat all 3 Japanese competitors.
    > This too is from the J.D. Power Initial Quality Survey, which also
    > reveals that above average are American brands Mercury, Ford, Cadillac,
    > Chevrolet , Pontiac, Lincoln, and Buick. Below average are import
    > brands Acura, Kia, Nissan, BMW, Mazda, VW, Subaru, and Scion (and
    > several others).
    > www.jdpower.com/autos/...
    >
    > www.jdpower.com/corpor...
    >
    >
    > 5. Which large sedan has the highest initial quality?
    >
    > Answer: Again per J.D. Power, the highest quality large car is the
    > Pontiac Grand Prix, beating the Toyota Avalon. Two other Detroit
    > cars that beat the Avalon are the Mercury Sable and Mercury Grand
    > Marquis.
    > www.jdpower.com/autos/...
    >
    >
    > 6. Which midsize pickup has the highest initial quality?
    >
    > Answer: The Dodge Dakota has the best quality for midsize pickups,
    > proving that Chrysler too can beat the imports. Both the Dakota and
    > the Ford Ranger beat the Toyota Tacoma.
    > www.jdpower.com/autos/...
    >
    >
    > 7. Which car is the most economical overall?
    >
    > Answer: Per Edmunds.com, the premier automotive analysis site, the
    > most economical car in America, taking into account not only mileage
    > but all costs, is the Chevrolet Aveo. The Honda Fit is #3 and the
    > Toyota Prius is a distant #34.
    > www.edmunds.com/help/a...
    >
    > 8. Which car did the Los Angeles Times describe as “a better car
    > than BMW or Mercedes or Lexus or Infiniti”?
    >
    > Answer: “Cadillac makes a better car than BMW or Mercedes or Lexus
    > or Infiniti, and that car is the 2008 CTS. No other car in the mass
    > market dares so much as this expressive and audacious bit of automotive
    > avant-gardism.” Dan Neil, LA Times.
    > www.latimes.com/classi...
    >
    >
    > 9. Which company makes the winner of the 2008 “Green Car of the
    > Year” award?
    >
    > Answer: The Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid is the winner of this award.
    > How could a full-size SUV defeat the media darling Toyota Prius?
    > Read the link below and you will discover, “What’s equally eye-opening
    > is that the Tahoe’s 21 mpg city fuel efficiency rating is the same
    > as that of the city EPA rating for the four-cylinder Toyota Camry
    > sedan. ”
    >
    > Did you catch that? A huge, full-size SUV from Chevrolet that gets
    > the same city mileage as a 4-cylinder Toyota Camry!! Chevy obtained
    > this remarkable achievement through the use of its 2-mode hybrid
    > system, a technology that Toyota does not have.
    > www.greencar.com/featu.../
    >
    > 10. Which car was selected by the North American automotive press
    > corps as the “North American Car of the Year” for 2007?
    >
    > Answer: Not only was the Saturn Aura picked by the automotive press
    > corps as better than the Honda Fit and the Toyota Camry, “When a
    > panel of 47 journalists named the Saturn Aura the North American
    > Car of the Year over the Toyota Camry, the vote wasn't even close,
    > 205-89.” Chicago Tribune, 1/15/07
    > www.northamericancarof...
    >
    > 11. Which car won the same award for 2008?
    >
    > Answer: GM again crushed the Japanese competition in 2008 when the
    > Malibu received 190 votes to the Honda Accord’s 95. The Accord
    > actually came in 3rd since GM’s other finalist, the Cadillac CTS,
    > received 165 votes.
    > www.northamericancarof...
    >
    > 12. Which company had a luxury vehicle, a midsize sedan, and a
    > large truck removed from the Consumer Reports recommended vehicles
    > list in October 2007 because of mounting quality problems?
    >
    > Answer: Toyota’s much publicized quality problems resulted in Consumer
    > Reports actually removing from their recommended vehicles list the
    > Lexus GS luxury car, Camry V6 sedan, and Tundra pickup. This demotion
    > occurred in October 2007.
    >
    > If you are one of the many Americans who gave up on Detroit’s cars
    > because of a bad experience many years ago, it’s time to rethink
    > your position. Rethink Detroit.
    >
    > Detroit automakers: 79 U.S. jobs per 2,500 cars sold in America.
    >
    > Foreign automakers: 33 U.S. jobs per 2,500 cars sold in America.
    >
    > levelfieldinstitute.or.../
    > SHOVE YOR RUST BOX YOU KNOW WHERE!
    2008 Nov 19 12:33 PM | Link | Reply
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    Dias: "if American cars are so good, why is it that Americans themselves don't buy them? Could it be that the "initial quality" doesn't last?"

    Dias - J.D. Power's Vehicle Dependability Study is a long term quality/ reliability study. Your rhetorical question also implies that NO Americans buy from GM, Ford, or Chrysler. That's an enormous over generalization....

    >Per J.D. Power Vehicle Dependability Study, Mercury and Cadillac
    > are in the top 3, along with Lexus. And in 2007, Buick was tied with
    > Lexus for the top spot

    2008 Nov 23 06:45 PM | Link | Reply