How to Play the Dollar's Fall With ETFs

Roger Nusbaum argues -- correctly, in my view -- that with the dollar in free-fall, international exposure is more important than ever. In practice, how can investors "play" the falling dollar?

Move out of US stocks and into non-US stocks, closed-end funds and ETFs. The easiest way to do this is with ETFs, and the key issue for investors is how to allocate assets between developed markets such as Europe and developing markets such as India, China and Russia. Candidates: the iShares MSCI Index ETF (EFA), Vanguard Pacific Stock VIPERs (VPL), iShares Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM).

Buy foreign currencies or foreign bond funds. The easiest way to do this: The Rydex Euro Currency Trust (FXI). Or you could use closed end foreign bond funds, like Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt (MSD), or the Aberdeen Asia Pacific Fund (FAX).

Short small cap US stock ETFs. Shorting ETFs is a more adventurous (and risky) strategy, but less risky than shorting individual stocks. Also, the ETFs' expense ratios work in your favor, so look for the most expense-laden ETFs to short. Small cap US stocks generally have a lower proportion of exports-to-total-sales than large caps. Chances are, those companies will see their costs rise as import prices rises but revenues unchanged as their sales are domestic. Candidates: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), iShares S&P 600 ETF (IJR), iShares Russell Microcap ETF (IWC). Note: be careful of IWC, as it has lower trading volumes than IWM and IJR.

Short ETFs of US sectors with little no international sales. Some US stock sectors have significant non-US sales (such as technology), whereas others have primarily domestic sales. Candidate: Retail HOLDRs (RTH).

Buy the gold and silver ETFs. Gold is widely regarded as a hedge against inflation and a refuge from a falling dollar. The gold ETF (GLD) and silver ETF (SLV) have both performed spectacularly, so there's a risk that they may pull back. (Look at what John Hussman just wrote on this.) Another candidate to consider: the Central Fund of Canada (CEF), a closed-end fund (yup, with the ticker CEF!) that has better tax treatment than GLD and SLV.

View this checklist a starting point for your own research. For example, I mentioned that the US stock ETFs RTH and IWM are both short candidates. But their recent performance has differed widely (click chart to enlarge):

Comments

[Erick Tippett:]

EDT

Your article was intereting but gave not specific etfs tied directly
to the US dollar particualarly for shorting. Did I miss something?

Erick Tippett
[e-mail]

2008 Jun 27 07:16 PM

[peiterry:]

Ditto above comment by Tippett. Is there no inverse ETF for the dollar or is our only resort GLD?

2008 Sep 16 01:37 AM

[TMR:]

Hi all,

For investors paying their gold or silver in another currency than the dollar, and who are afraid the rise in gold's price is only a gain in the dollar value of gold, read the following article which explains it is not that way:

www.commoditypress.com.../

good luck investing!

Dec 06 02:03 PM