Amarin (AMRN) has been getting beaten up lately with missed expectations, angry and disappointed shareholders, and bad news raining down like cats and dogs. I detailed a the issues bit in my first AMRN article titled "Amarin Corporation Drops A Double Dose Of Bad News," and then again in my article titled "Forget Amarin: Buy Celsion For A Bigger Score." So the bad news is out, and AMRN is due for a bounce right? I don't think so. I believe AMRN will continue to slide down. Here are four reasons why:
1. No Equity Financing
The terms of new no equity financing sound as if AMRN sold its soul to the Cayman Islands devil. Under the terms of the agreement with "Biopharma Secured Debt Fund II Holdings Cayman LP," AMRN will be likely be paying a nosebleed 12%-14% interest on $100 million, adding more than $1 million per month in net losses and ballooning debt while it struggles to try to launch its drug. Furthermore, AMRN was required to put up "its patents, trademarks, copyrights, know-how and regulatory filings, submissions and approvals related to [its] lead product, Vascepa" as collateral. It basically gave the debt fund the right to wipe the company out from shareholders if AMRN fails to meet its debt obligations. All that for collateral for interest rates worse than most collateral-free credit cards. Doesn't show a lot of faith in AMRN's future.
2. Avalanche of Warrants
As of year-end 2011, there were over 21 million warrants outstanding with exercise prices between $1.00 and $1.50. With the stock still 500% to 900% higher than this strike price, there may be an urgency to exercise and sell. There's $150 million to $200 million in profit sitting on the table for the warrant holders. That's a lot of potential shares to come flooding the market, more than four times the average volume.
3. Regular Tax-Loss Selling and Margin Calls
With only two weeks left in the tax year and lots of people and funds sitting on large losses (who bought since the FDA approval of Vascepa last summer), I suspect many will be financially motivated to sell. Others may face margin calls and have no choice.
4. Insider Selling
With insiders cashing out hundreds of millions of dollars for the last two years dumping on shareholders, it's only human nature to look at it and not feel very confident. Insiders have made an extreme fortune of epic magnitudes for a company that has yet to see one red cent in revenue.
All this said, it's always possible for things to turn on a dime with AMRN. If it lands a partner with more generous financial terms and/or more launch experience, things may immediately turn bright for AMRN. If it were to get a buyout offer, it would be a game-changer and indeed a profitable game-ender. Those prospects seem dim now in light of management's failure to deliver, but one never knows -- and it is a risk to shorts. Shorts don't seem too worried, though. There are over 20 million of them, most of whom are sitting pretty with happy profits.