Guess Which Retail Items Are Selling Best and Worst?

The American consumer is cutting back on retail items, we all know that. But which areas are being hardest hit? Which are doing well? In a nutshell: Jewelry sales are down, while food and apparel sales are up. This means that some food and clothing manufacturers may be weathering this downturn just fine, while jewelry sellers may find the worst is yet to come.

From Kohl’s Q308 conference call:

Definitely no on flat screen TV’s. You know, jewelry’s an important element of our merchandise mix. It’s a significant contributor to sales all year and at holiday it’s a significantly larger contributor. Not surprisingly, fine jewelry this year given the economic environment has not been a high growth classification so we’re not planning it to be high gross classification at the holiday either.

From JCPenney’s Q308 conference call:

J. C. Penney continues its leadership position in apparel, where our sales trends have been stronger than our competitors. For the third quarter women’s and children’s apparel and family shoes were our best performing divisions. By contrast, and consistent with both our recent results and those of the industry, our fine jewelry and home divisions continue to be our weakest businesses.

From Wal-Mart Stores' FQ309 conference call:

Food and consumable categories dominated Sam's comp sales growth for the quarter. Highlights included strong sales in grocery, fresh, pets, and baby care. Our members are clearly making choices today on how they spend and those choices are clearly weighted toward everyday necessities and away from more discretionary purchases. This is manifesting itself in continuing softer general merchandise sales including in fine jewelry, electronics, and house wares. Apparel, however, was a bright spot for the quarter.

Comments

[jbde:]

Too general to be news-worthy

Why can't we get item or supplier info on actual sales?
Someone needs to be watching this closely with instore data collectors!

Unless, of course, you can tap the companies' register tapes being beamed to headquarters.

2008 Nov 18 08:20 AM

[Nick Gogerty:]

IRI and Nielsen research provide item level data from bar code tracking. It is pricey, but compelling.

2008 Nov 18 10:18 AM

[billddrummer:]

Hi Judy,

Good to hear from you.

In CE (the sector I work in), iPods, iPhone accessories and base level computer systems are selling well. Higher end laptops, premium appliances and medium- to upper-tiier televisions are soft.

It's not that people aren't shopping, as evidenced by your commentary. It's just that people are now value shopping. The added value of additional features isn't translating into compelling values, so consumers (my opinion) appear to be shopping with a specific budget in mind and sticking within it, whether financing or paying cash.

In the past, you could predict that a financed purchase would have a 10-20% higher ticket than the same purchase paid for in cash. That's not the case now. Almost like people are reluctant to borrow beyond their perceived means.

And as Martha Stewart says, that's a 'very good thing' for households, not such a good thing for retailers.

But in my opinion, that's the new reality of retail in America.

All the best,

Bill

2008 Nov 18 11:16 AM

[Jason Rines...:]

Even more valuable would be a survey on future purchase intent by retail category. I do like Neisen and have worked with them in the past.


On Nov 18 10:18 AM nickgogerty wrote:

> IRI and Nielsen research provide item level data from bar code tracking.
> It is pricey, but compelling.

2008 Nov 18 12:39 PM