Dating the Current Recession

According to the Philly Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters -- 51 of 'em -- the current recession started in April and will last through June 2008:

Thirty-five panelists say their forecasts reflect the influence of a new fiscal stimulus package. The size of the stimulus package is estimated at $211 billion. Out of this amount, the forecasters predict that $69 billion will go toward government consumption and gross investment, $54 billion will go toward transfer payments, and $71 billion will be used for tax cuts. According to the forecasters, the stimulus package will begin to affect real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2009. The panelists think the stimulus package will add 0.6 percentage point to the annual-average over annual-average growth in real GDP in 2009 and 0.4 percentage point in 2010.

How much are these short-term forecasts worth? This next chart suggests not much:

Comments

[Steven Hansen:]

these same economists three months ago anticipated growth at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter and 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2009. now they say we entered a recession seven months ago which they did not think even existed three months ago.

this is just more crap being thrown around. they have no more of a clue when we are going to be leaving this recession then they did when we entered it. i personally believe it is academic when we leave this recession as there is no big driver for economic growth. the asian countries are predicting this recession to last through 2009.

if i were an economist who participated in this survey, i would not admit it.

2008 Nov 18 04:30 AM

[john s. gordon:]

the current recession began in june 2007, the politicians were not willing to discuss it.
> jack

2008 Nov 18 08:39 AM