Investable Solar Sector Outlook 12 comments
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Novogradac Financing Renewable Energy Conference, Washington, D.C., November 12 – 14
Day One
Amid the volatility and downgrades of solar sector stocks last week, Novogradac sponsored a Financing Renewable Energy Conference in Washington, D.C.
Solar developers, investors, tax attorneys and others weighed in on the 2009 solar market outlook. What’s driving investment in projects? Will upstream solar module suppliers like First Solar (NSDQ: FSLR), SunPower (NSDQ: SPWRA), Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) and Evergreen Solar (NSDQ: ESLR) face reduced demand?
The industry’s sharpest gathered to try to answer those questions.
Day One was the pre-conference workshop on Tax Credit Basics. This was Solar Finance 101, but, still, extremely sophisticated stuff.
The afternoon sessions on solar transactions featured presentations from conference sponsor Novogradac, Nixon Peabody and Solar City.
My takeaways
Solar Investment Tax Credit Extended for Eight Years
One of the sweeteners in the Bailout Bill was the extension of the 30% tax credit to owner of solar system
ITC extended to both public utility and residential segments for the first time in addition to commercial segment
Tax Credit Equity Investors Will Continue to Fund Solar Deals
Tax credit equity investor landscape is changing driven by credit crisis and eight year extension of ITC
Wall Street investors either gone or have no tax liability to offset
Public utilities may emerge as new tax credit equity investors now that ITC has extended them the 30% credit
No consensus among panelists on availability of equity funding for projects: some paint a dark picture while others more optimistic
Bank of America (BAC) and US Bank (the sixth largest commercial bank in the United States) were both attendees and actually spoke up from the audience during one of the panels to say they were actively investing in solar deals
US Bank plans to invest up to $200 million by end of 2009
Twenty year Power Purchase Agreement on commercial projects is the dominant industry model – offtaker buys percentage of their power from developer at discount to traditional electricity; developer uses third party tax equity investors to fund deal and own system
State Renewable Portfolio Standards Will Drive Demand
State mandated RPS require that utilities generate a certain percentage of renewable energy out of all power produced from traditional sources by a given date
Utilities will be incentivized to meet RPS as new beneficiaries of the 30% ITC
Utility-scale solar projects of five megawatts and larger will continue to grow
Disclosure: Contributor Chris Cather owns shares in the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF (TAN), which has holdings in FSLR, STP, SPWRA, JASO, ESLR, and CSIQ.
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This article has 12 comments:
got us where we are today. We can put many a man on the Moon & rovers on mars, we have plenty of natural gas & lots of wind & sunny skies, but our representives in the house & senate can not think of us over themselves. We have the technogology, the know how, the mindset for change, why don't they listen? Right know we could employ everybody that does not have work, there is wind,solar,geothermal,... tidal energy,& on & on.
But first we need to will some common sense on our leaders & this may prove to be the most challenging , but we must because we are Americans & America deserves our insistance that we be self-reliant &
the charter of our path .Mr President elect, Congress,The Senate, get going, this is our life & we want & demand change!!!!
We need to base our currency on silicon, on solar cells to be specific. Inefficient ones can be pennies, efficient ones, oh I don't know, $5,000.
I am sick of currency that is jacked around by people who for all their fancy degrees don't seem to see the writing.
If people who see the writing on the dollar need to hide in the dry hills like a famous character with diabetes who may well be fictional, then we are going to need off-the-grid ways to power our laptops.
Unlike Wall Street, Sand Street will not be a particular place, so that the ragtag band of righty-lefties can mostly stay out of Dick's Prison Retreats, Inc.
The Queen of Demonization as Secretary of State? What are those famous brains thinking! It was bad enough in the Senate, but letting that loose on the world?
I never thought I would think of closing gitmo as bringing it home to outsource torture more conveniently.
The cabinet choices I have seen mentioned are a horror, from a kindness-to-the-earth-... point of view.
Help me out here, guys? Can we have a shadow, dry-hills cabinet, to compete with Swamp on the Potomac?
On Nov 20 05:17 PM Mike in (Awl of our national leadership) wrote:
> What are they thinking in Washington?Being dependent on Opec &
> big oil
> got us where we are today. We can put many a man on the Moon &
> rovers on mars, we have plenty of natural gas & lots of wind
> & sunny skies, but our representives in the house & senate
> can not think of us over themselves. We have the technogology, the
> know how, the mindset for change, why don't they listen? Right know
> we could employ everybody that does not have work, there is wind,solar,geothermal,...
> tidal energy,& on & on.
> But first we need to will some common sense on our leaders &
> this may prove to be the most challenging , but we must because we
> are Americans & America deserves our insistance that we be self-reliant
> &
> the charter of our path .Mr President elect, Congress,The Senate,
> get going, this is our life & we want & demand change!!!!
The Q of D will be a figurehead. Daddy Bill will be gallivanting the globe interviewing foreign interns.
And where did they dredge up Tom Daschle as the Secretary of Health. How about Secretary of Death.
They probably found him on top of Mount Rushmore with a sledge hammer.
Make no mistake. The 90's are back. The first black president is still in charge.
On Nov 20 05:23 PM Jade Queen wrote:
> I hang, sometimes, with gold bugs. The rest of the time I hang with
> gold-eye-rollers. Some of the bugs try to get the rollers to go to
> gun shows, which does not happen, though the rollers confess they
> really should go.
>
> We need to base our currency on silicon, on solar cells to be specific.
> Inefficient ones can be pennies, efficient ones, oh I don't know,
> $5,000.
>
> I am sick of currency that is jacked around by people who for all
> their fancy degrees don't seem to see the writing.
>
> If people who see the writing on the dollar need to hide in the dry
> hills like a famous character with diabetes who may well be fictional,
> then we are going to need off-the-grid ways to power our laptops.
>
>
> Unlike Wall Street, Sand Street will not be a particular place, so
> that the ragtag band of righty-lefties can mostly stay out of Dick's
> Prison Retreats, Inc.
>
> The Queen of Demonization as Secretary of State? What are those famous
> brains thinking! It was bad enough in the Senate, but letting that
> loose on the world?
>
> I never thought I would think of closing gitmo as bringing it home
> to outsource torture more conveniently.
>
> The cabinet choices I have seen mentioned are a horror, from a kindness-to-the-earth-...
> point of view.
>
> Help me out here, guys? Can we have a shadow, dry-hills cabinet,
> to compete with Swamp on the Potomac?
Through the incoherent rants, there wasn't an ounce of substantive comment on either the article nor an alternative suggestion.
Can't we all just be grown ups, get beyond our petty political leanings and help fellow investors through intelligent musings rather than pathogenic babble?
Dril, drill drill... and install solar panels everywhere... we need jobs.
Common Obama, we're counting on you...
New Mexico should be turning back the energy clock with their roofs covered in solar panels. Sure the cost is around $20k to start and nobody has that cash now, but you will make that money back in energy saving in as little as 4 years!! Other states could use smaller systems to help out with the summer months running those evil nose bleeder A/Cs. Where is our tax credits or 50% off coupons for buying solar if this global warming phenom.... exists. Step up to the plate&*$%^*#
I lived off the grid for 15 years and I voted for Bush!, so stop being hypocrite and buy solar panels and charge controllers, this will make the stocks go up not all of you ranting and raving about the President. Demand and Supply baby, thats what runs this world.
Happy Turkey Day